Value of early variables as predictors of short-term outcome in patients with acute focal cerebral ischemia.

ABSTRACT

Reliable, simple and safe criteria are needed for the early prediction of short-term outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke. The aim of our study was to evaluate, in terms of their individual and combined power, the prognostic value of a few widely available clinical and instrumental variables obtained during the acute phase. The study involved 351 consecutive patients who were examined within 48 hours of their first ischemic stroke. Eight variables were chosen age, initial level of consciousness, limb paresis, arterial blood pressure, glycemia, the results of electrocardiography and electroencephalography, and the infarct size revealed by computed tomography. Mortality and disability were evaluated on Day 30, when the variables that significantly correlated with disability were the severity of limb paresis, electroencephalographic abnormalities, infarct size and (less significantly) the level of consciousness and hyperglycemia. There was no statistical correlation with blood pressure. Logistic analysis confirmed only infarct size, the severity of limb paresis and electroencephalographic abnormalities as independent variables. The variables that significantly correlated with early death were the severity of limb paresis, infarct size, electrocardiographic abnormalities, the level of consciousness, electroencephalographic abnormalities and hyperglycemia. More intriguingly, logistic analysis confirmed only the electroencephalographic and electrocardiographic abnormalities as independent variables. The predictive prognostic value of limb paresis, infarct size, the level of consciousness and hyperglycemia is well known, but we would like to stress the fact that only a few independent variables are predictive of early death (electroencephalographic and electrocardiographic abnormalities) and poor recovery (infarct size, the severity of limb paresis, electroencephalographic abnormalities). The prognostic value of electroencephalography may express the potential involvement of dynamic non-structural phenomena, such as penumbra ischemica and diaschisis.