Getting the scale right : A comparison of analytical methods for vulnerability assessment and household level targeting

This paper introduces broad concepts of vulnerability, food security and famine. It argues that the concepts and theories driving development and implementation of vulnerability assessment tools are related to their utility. The review concludes that socio-geographic scale is a key issue and challenge. It analyses three vulnerability assessment (VA) methods, using Ethiopia as a case study. Facing the challenges of vulnerability assessment and early warning requires providing accurate information at the required scale, useful for multiple decision-makers within realistic institutional capacities (AU)

Famine forecasting : Prices and peasant behaviour in Northern Ethiopia

This paper, completed in January 1984, begins by briefly outlining the contrasting views of price behaviour during the last Ethiopian famine (1972-1974) put forward by seaman and holt (1980) and sen (1981). A hypothesis is developed to account for peasant behaviour and price responses under developing famine conditions. This is then tested with data recently made available. The paper concludes by summarizing the findings and their implications for famine forecasting, and argues that famine conditions in Northern Ethiopia are likely to worsen during 1984 (AU)