Private well water stewardship in rural Georgia.

This study sought to identify the psychosocial influences on the practice of well stewardship behaviors (water testing, water treatment, and well maintenance) in rural Georgia, USA. Three interventions (education, the provision of household water treatment systems [HWTS], and both education and HWTS) were evaluated using a four-group, randomized controlled trial. A total of 64 private well owners completed a pretest measuring psychosocial factors and stewardship behaviors before receiving an intervention. Following a 104-day waiting period, participants completed a posttest and interviews were conducted to identify the barriers and facilitators to use (S1 File). Pretest results showed that 34% of well owners have ever tested their water and that only 25% treat their water before consumption. The education-only intervention showed no influence on stewardship behaviors, resulted in no new water tests and had no impact on psychosocial factors. The HWTS-only intervention had no significant effect on testing and treatment behaviors, though it had a significant effect on abilities (R2 = .87, p< 0.05) and self-regulation (R2 = 1.0, p<0.01). The intervention of both education and HWTS had no effect on testing and no significant effect on treatment behaviors, though had a significant effect on abilities (R2 = .84, p<0.05) and self-regulation (R2 = .93, p<0.05). This study identified three barriers to the use of HWTS: beliefs, knowledge, and functionality. Two factors (piece of mind and ease of use) were identified as facilitators to the use of HWTS. The results of this study indicate that providing water treatment systems does not guarantee use and that current educational efforts provided by state and local health departments may be ineffective.

Development and validation of the mpox stigma scale (MSS) and mpox knowledge scale (MKS).

BACKGROUND: Few validated brief scales are available to measure constructs that may hinder mpox-related prevention and care engagement, such as knowledge and stigma. Both are highly salient barriers to infectious disease care and disease understanding, precursors to evaluating one's risk and need to, for example, accept vaccination. To address this gap, we developed and validated the Mpox Stigma Scale (MSS) and Mpox Knowledge Scale (MKS). METHODS: As part of a full-scale clinical trial, we offered an optional mpox survey to participants who self-identified as African American or Black, were 18-29 years old, and lived in Alabama, Georgia, or North Carolina (2023, N = 330). We calculated psychometric properties through confirmatory factor analyses (CFA) and applied Comparative Fit Index (CFI), Goodness of Fit Index (GFI), and Tucker-Lewis Index (TLI) values equal to or exceeding 0.90 and Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA) and Standardized Root Mean Square Residual (SRMR) values less than 0.08 to determine adequate model fit. We computed internal reliability using Cronbach's alpha and calculated Pearson or Spearman correlation coefficients between the MSS and MKS and related variables. RESULTS: For the MSS, CFA results showed that the one-factor model fit the data well (χ2(df = 5, N = 330) = 34.962, CFI = 0.97, GFI = 0.99, TLI = 0.94, RMSEA = 0.13, SRMR = 0.03). For the MKS, the one-factor model provided a good fit to the data (χ2(df = 6, N = 330) = 8.44, CFI = 0.99, GFI = 0.99, TLI = 0.95, RMSEA = 0.15, SRMR = 0.02). Cronbach's alphas were MSS = 0.91 and MKS = 0.83, suggesting good to excellent reliability. The MSS was correlated with the MKS (r = .55, p < .001), stigmatizing attitudes (r = .24, p < .001), attitudes towards mpox vaccination (r=-.12, p = .030), and worry about contracting mpox (r = .44, p < .001). The MKS was correlated with worry about contracting mpox (r = .30, p < .001) and mpox disclosure (r=-.16, p = .003). CONCLUSIONS: The MSS and MKS are reliable and valid tools for public health practice, treatment and prevention research, and behavioral science. Further validation is warranted across populations and geographic locations. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05490329.

Comparative analysis of breast and lung cancer survival rates and clinical trial enrollments among rural and urban patients in Georgia.

Objectives: Rural patients have poor cancer outcomes and clinical trial (CT) enrollment compared to urban patients due to attitudinal, awareness, and healthcare access differential. Knowledge of cancer survival disparities and CT enrollment is important for designing interventions and innovative approaches to address the stated barriers. The study explores the potential disparities in cancer survival rates and clinical trial enrollments in rural and urban breast and lung cancer patients. Our hypotheses are that for both cancer types, urban cancer patients will have longer 5-year survival rates and higher enrollment rates in clinical trials than those in rural counties. Methods: We compared breast and lung cancer patients' survival rates and enrollment ratios in clinical trials between rural (RUCC 4-9) and urban counties in Georgia at a Comprehensive Cancer Center (CCC). To assess these differences, we carried out a series of independent samples t-tests and Chi-Square tests. Results: The outcomes indicate comparable 5-year survival rates across rural and urban counties for breast and lung cancer patients, failing to substantiate our hypothesis. While clinical trial enrollment rates demonstrated a significant difference between breast and lung cancer patients at CCC, no significant variation was observed based on rural or urban classification. Conclusion: These findings underscore the need for further research into the representation of rural patients with diverse cancer types at CCC and other cancer centers. Further, the findings have considerable implications for the initiation of positive social change to improve CT participation and reduce cancer survival disparities.

"It spreads like wildfire": mothers' gatherings for vaccine acceptance.

This case study describes the design, implementation, and evaluation of an initiative to increase COVID-19 vaccine confidence and uptake among refugee and immigrant women in Clarkston, Georgia. Applying the principles and practices of human-centered design, Mothers x Mothers was co-created by Refugee Women's Network and IDEO.org as a series of gatherings for refugee and immigrant mothers to discuss health issues, beginning with the COVID-19 vaccine. The gatherings included both vaccinated and unvaccinated mothers and used a peer support model, with facilitation focused on creating a trusting environment and supporting mothers to make their own health decisions. The facilitators for Mothers x Mothers gatherings were community health workers (CHWs) recruited and trained by Refugee Women's Network. Notably, these CHWs were active in every phase of the initiative, from design to implementation to evaluation, and the CHWs' professional development was specifically included among the initiative's goals. These elements and others contributed to an effective public health intervention for community members who, for a variety of reasons, did not get sufficient or appropriate COVID-19 vaccine information through other channels. Over the course of 8 Mothers x Mothers gatherings with 7 distinct linguistic/ethnic groups, 75% of the unvaccinated participants decided to get the COVID-19 vaccine and secured a vaccine referral.

Application of the Social Cognitive Theory amid food parenting practices of Black immigrant mothers in the US: A qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Children of Black immigrant parents living in the US are at elevated risk of being overweight or obese, thus increasing their risks of morbidity and mortality as they age. Parents play a crucial role in shaping their children's nutrition through their food parenting practices. The Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) can explain Black immigrant mother's FPP and their children's dietary behavior. This study aimed to assess SCT's constructs, personal (maternal knowledge, attitudes, beliefs) and environmental factors (acculturation) in relation to the behavioral factor (food parenting practices) among a sample of Black immigrant mothers living in Metro Atlanta, Georgia. METHODS: Convenience sampling was employed to recruit 30 Black immigrant mothers who lived in seven Metro Atlanta, Georgia counties in the summer of 2022. Four focus group interviews were conducted over two weeks. The qualitative data analysis was thematic. RESULTS: Focus group data analysis revealed seven major themes: knowledge, attitude, belief, modeling, acculturation, coercive control, and structure, and six subthemes. Mothers discussed being intentional about encouraging healthy foods and limiting unhealthy foods for their children. Overall, acculturation influenced mothers' food parenting practices. Since migrating to the US, some mothers' nutrition changed in positive (e.g., eating more fruits) and negative ways (e.g., snacking more) because of schedules, cost, and access. Children ate a mixed diet, the mother's native diet and the American diet, and the former was considered healthier and affordable by most. CONCLUSION: This is the first study to look at the food parenting practices of Black immigrants in the US. By identifying key factors that influence the food parenting practices of this population and their children's dietary habits, this study's findings are useful to practitioners or researchers who work with this population on nutrition.

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels and health outcomes of hospitalization owing to COVID-19: a retrospective cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated the role of serum 25(OH)D (25-hydroxyvitamin D) in COVID-related health outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study using data of the National Center of Disease Control and Public Health, Georgia. We extracted patient data including length of hospital stay, transfer to the intensive care unit, requirement for oxygen therapy, treatment with glucocorticoids, and symptoms. After obtaining written informed consent, 384 individuals were enrolled. We divided participants into three groups according to 25(OH)D levels: group 1 = 25(OH)D <12 ng/mL (n = 83), group 2 = 25(OH)D 12-20 ng/mL (n = 141), and group 3 = 25(OH)D >20 ng/mL (n = 160). RESULTS: The odds ratio (OR) for hospitalization in group 1 versus group 2 was 8.7 (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.6-21.3) and 5.6 for group 1 versus 3 (95% CI 2.7-11.9). Regarding oxygen therapy, OR = 28.41 for group 1 versus 2 (95% CI 3.7-220.5) and OR = 5.2 for group 1 versus 3 (95% CI 1.9-14.1). Regarding treatment with glucocorticoids, OR = 3.7 for group 1 versus 2 (95% CI 1.1-12.5) and OR = 8.4 for group 1 versus 3 (95% CI 1.8-40.7). CONCLUSION: COVID-19-related morbidity was associated with decreased serum 25(OH)D levels. Future studies should investigate the potential role of vitamin D sufficiency in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection and mortality.

Motivators and mechanisms for an international rural health collaboration.

Collaborations are critical to address rural health challenges. We evaluated a new international collaboration between institutions in Georgia, the United States (US), and Scotland, United Kingdom (UK), to address rural health issues and to understand the barriers and facilitators to effective international collaboration efforts. A qualitative approach was used through in-depth interviews and focus groups with educators, researchers, and healthcare providers in the US and Scotland who were involved in the CONVERGE international rural health collaboration. Transcriptions were imported into the NVivo qualitative software program. A reflexive thematic analysis was employed to identify key themes from the collected data. Twelve interviews and two focus groups were conducted virtually with 17 participants. Two primary domains were identified from the thematic analysis: (1) motivators that increase engagement in international collaboration, and (2) mechanisms for, and barriers to, the continuity needed to create meaningful change. Six themes emerged related to commonality of issues, prospect of sharing knowledge, need of sustained funding and institutional support, and selection of human resources. Participants of CONVERGE were more likely to engage when they had a space to share ways to address challenging issues and integrate knowledge and practice. They were motivated by their desire for growth and the institutions they serve and emphasized that infrastructure support is vital for sustainable collaborations.

Advancing Health Equity: A Collaborative Framework to Address HIV Disparities in Georgia and Louisiana through Data, Education, and Policy Initiatives.

The United States grapples with over 30,000 new HIV infections annually, a challenge exacerbated by delayed diagnosis and treatment. HIV stigma hinders data collection and contributes to health disparities. High-quality data and a community-driven approach are critical to reducing these disparities. The collaborative effort of the Satcher Health Leadership Institute at Morehouse School of Medicine, and the Center for Minority Health and Health Disparities Research and Education at Xavier University of Louisiana, addresses systemic barriers perpetuating the HIV epidemic in Georgia and Louisiana. We influence policy, implement an HIV education curriculum, map resources, and display data via the Health Equity Tracker. Stigma surrounding HIV/AIDS impedes disclosure, creates data gaps, and affects care quality and access. Addressing these data gaps, influencing policy, and implementing education are crucial steps to improving outcomes for Black people living with HIV/AIDS. This framework aligns with the federal Ending the HIV Epidemic program's goals, advancing health equity for vulnerable populations.

DESCRIPTIONS AND PHYLOGENETIC AFFINITIES OF TWO NEW SPECIES OF RHABDIAS STILES AND HASSALL, 1905 (NEMATODA: RHABDIASIDAE) FROM NORTH AMERICAN FROGS: ARE WE STILL ONLY SCRATCHING THE SURFACE?

Two new species of lung-dwelling nematodes are described from North American frogs: Rhabdias aurorae n. sp. from Rana aurora and Rhabdias conni n. sp. from Rana clamitans and Rana catesbeiana from Arkansas; the latter species was also found in Oklahoma and Georgia. Rhabdias aurorae n. sp. differs from other Nearctic congeners in the combination of the following characteristics: buccal capsule 22-25 µm wide, elongated tail covered with inflated cuticle, esophagus with prominent dilatation in anterior part and 6 small circumoral lips. Rhabdias conni n. sp. is morphologically closest to Rhabdias ranae Walton, 1929 and Rhabdias joaquinensisIngles, 1936; it differs from them in the shape of lateral pseudolabia, the dimensions of the body, and the egg size. Both new species were found to be significantly different from the Nearctic congeners in the nucleotide sequences of nuclear ribosomal DNA (18S-ITS-28S region), 12S, and CO1 mitochondrial genes. The 2 new species differ from other currently sequenced Nearctic congeners by 1.1-2.7% of nucleotide positions in the nuclear rDNA region, 1.3-3.4% in the 12S gene, and 3.4-9.4% in CO1 gene. Molecular phylogenetic analysis based on nuclear ribosomal DNA sequences placed both new species into the clade consisting of Nearctic and Neotropical Rhabdias spp. The position of Rh. aurorae n. sp. within the clade is uncertain because of a polytomy, but Rh. conni n. sp. is nested within the "Rh. joaquinensis complex" related to Rh. ranae and Rhabdias tarichaeKuzmin, Tkach, and Snyder, 2003. The phylogenetic analysis based on nuclear ribosomal DNA sequences has revealed 3 evolutionary host-switching events from anuran to caudatan hosts among Rhabdias spp. that occurred in the Nearctic and Palearctic. The molecular phylogeny also suggests that Rhabdias may have originally evolved in what is now Africa.

Utilizing Augmented Reality to Evaluate Service Member Team Performance.

INTRODUCTION: Decision-making is a complex process that relies on situational awareness and experience to create a potential list of actions while weighing the risks and benefits of each action. There is a paucity of data evaluating decision-making for individual service members (SM) during the performance of team-based military-relevant activities. Understanding individual performance and decision-making within the context of a team-based activity has potential to aid in the detection and management of mild traumatic brain injuries and assist with safe and timely return-to-duty decision making. The aim of this project was to evaluate cognitive and motor performance in healthy SM during an augmented reality military specific, team-based activity. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from 110 SMs from Fort Moore Georgia were analyzed for this project. Service members completed 3 augmented reality room breaching and clearing scenarios (Empty Room, Civilian/Combatant, and Incorrect Position of a unit member) with 3 avatar team members. Participants wore a Microsoft HoloLens 2 (HL2) device and used a replica M4 weapon (Haptech Defense Systems) during scenarios. Three-dimensional position data from the HL2 headset was used to compute temporal measures of room breaching and clearing events while the number and timing of weapon discharge was monitored by the M4. Temporal outcomes included time to enter room, time to fire first shot, time in fatal funnel, and total trial time while motor outcomes were distance traveled and average movement velocity. RESULTS: Pairwise comparisons between the Incorrect Position scenario and the Civilian/Combatant scenario demonstrated no difference in time to enter the room (2.36 seconds in both scenarios). Time to fire the first shot in the Civilian/Combatant scenario was longer (0.97 seconds to 0.58 seconds) while time in fatal funnel (2.58 seconds to 3.31 seconds) and time to trial completion (7.46 seconds to 8.41 seconds) were significantly longer in the Incorrect Position scenario. CONCLUSIONS: Reaction time to fire the first shot, time in the fatal funnel, and total trial time reflect a change in information-processing and decision-making capabilities during military specific, ecological, team-based scenarios when altering the environment inside of the room and modifying avatar movements. Future studies are planned to evaluate the effects of mild traumatic brain injury on specific aspects of military team performance.

Spatio-temporal analysis of COVID-19 lockdown effect to survive in the US counties using ANN.

This study aims to quantify the effectiveness of lockdown as a non-pharmacological solution for managing the COVID-19 pandemic. Daily COVID-19 death counts were collected for four states: California, Georgia, New Jersey, and South Carolina. The effectiveness of the lockdown was studied and the number of people saved during 7 days was evaluated. Five neural network models (MLP, FFNN, CFNN, ENN, and NARX) were implemented, and the results indicate that FFNN is the best prediction model. Based on this model, the total number of survivors over a 7-day period is 211, 270, 989, and 60 in California, Georgia, New Jersey, and South Carolina, respectively. The coefficients and weights of the FFNN for each state differ due to various factors, including socio-demographic conditions and the behavior of citizens towards lockdown laws. New Jersey and South Carolina have the most lockdowns and the least.

Associations between exposure to extreme ambient heat and neural tube defects in Georgia, USA: A population-based case-control study.

INTRODUCTION: The association between extreme ambient heat exposures during pregnancy and neural tube defects (NTDs) in offspring remains unclear. This study sought to estimate the association between exposure to extreme ambient heat during periconception and NTDs. METHODS: This population-based case-control study in Georgia, USA (1994-2017) included 825 isolated NTD cases (473 anencephaly, 352 spina bifida) and 3,300 controls matched 1:4 on county of residence and time period of delivery. Daily ambient temperature data were linked to fetal death and birth records by county of residence. Extreme ambient heat exposure was defined as the number of consecutive days the daily apparent temperature exceeded the county-specific 95th percentile (derived over 1980-2010) during an eight-week periconception period. We calculated adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using conditional logistic regression models adjusted for maternal age, education, and ethnicity and month and year of last menstrual period. RESULTS: The aORs for NTDs were 1.09 (95% CI 1.01, 1.17), 1.18 (95% CI 1.03, 1.36), and 1.29 (95% CI 1.04, 1.58) for exposure to 1-2, 3-5, and 6 or more consecutive days with apparent ambient temperatures exceeding the county-specific 95th percentile during periconception, respectively, compared to no days of extreme ambient heat exposure. Weekly analysis of extreme heat exposure indicated consistently elevated odds of offspring NTDs during periconception. These results were largely driven by spina bifida cases. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight potential health threats posed by increasing global average temperatures for pregnant people with implications for increased risk of neural tube defects in their offspring.

Direct medical charges in a population-based systemic lupus erythematosus cohort.

AIM: This study aimed to obtain estimates for the direct medical charges associated with hospitalizations and emergency department visits of validated SLE cases in a diverse Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) population. METHODS: The Georgians Organized Against Lupus (GOAL) cohort is a population-based cohort of adult SLE patients from metropolitan Atlanta, GA USA, an area having a diverse SLE population. The GOAL cohort aims to study the impact of social determinants of health (SDoH) on outcomes relevant to patients, healthcare providers, and policymakers. For this study, survey data collected during 2011-2012 was linked to the Georgia Hospital Discharge Database (HDD) to capture hospital admissions (HAs) and emergency department visits (EDVs) throughout Georgia from 2012 through 2013. Direct medical charges were summarized by HCU type among all patients, among those with actual visits, and by socio-demographics and healthcare factors. RESULTS: Among 829 patients (94% women, 78% Black, 64% non-private insurance, 64% not-employed, mean age of 46), 170 (20.5%) and 300 (36.2%) participants had at least one HA and one EDV in 1-year of follow-up, respectively, with 111(13.4%) having both HA and EDV. On average, each patient experienced 0.38 HAs and 0.91 EDVs, with per-patient direct medical charges of $14,968 for HAs & $3,022 for EDVs, and $39,645 per HA & $3,305 per EDV. Patients with higher social vulnerability or more severe disease had higher charges for both HA and EDV (p < 0.01), likely due to the delayed care and neglected health needs leading to more advanced and costly medical treatments. Living below the federal poverty level was associated with higher charges for EDVs (p < 0.001) but with lower charges for HAs (p = 0.036). CONCLUSIONS: This study underscores the economic burden of SLE on vulnerable populations, emphasizing the importance of including socio-economic factors in healthcare planning. Policy efforts should prioritize reducing disparities in access to care and implementing preventive strategies.

Pregnancy-related maternal mortality in the state of Georgia: Timing and causes of death.

BACKGROUND: The maternal mortality rate in the United States is high and disparities among non-Hispanic White and non-Hispanic Black women remain. In the State of Georgia, the pregnancy-related death rate is among the worst in the nation. OBJECTIVE: To examine current pregnancy-related deaths in the State of Georgia using measures of timing and cause-specific mortality across maternal sociodemographic characteristics. DESIGN: This cross-sectional study of pregnancy-related deaths in Georgia was based on 2016-2019 maternal mortality data obtained from the Georgia Department of Public Health. METHODS: Our study analysis involved complete-case data of maternal deaths identified as pregnancy-related deaths (n = 129). Statistical analyses included two distinct population-level measures: (a) timing (i.e. during pregnancy, 0 to 60 days, 61 to 180 days, and 181 to 365 days postpartum) and (b) cause-specific deaths patterned by sociodemographic groups of women and by rural and urban county of residence. Categorical variables were compared using the Chi square or Fisher's exact test and presented as numbers and percentages. A post hoc power analysis was conducted to inform whether there was sufficient power to detect statistically significant effects given available sample sizes. RESULTS: Among a total of 129 pregnancy-related deaths, 30 (23.3%) deaths occurred during pregnancy and 63 (48.8%) deaths occurred within the first 60 days postpartum. Pregnancy-related deaths were disproportionally common among non-Hispanic Black, 25 to 34 years old, and poorly educated women. Three leading underlying causes, cardiomyopathy (22.7%), hemorrhage (21.6%), and cardiovascular or coronary disease (20.4%), accounted for about 65% of all pregnancy-related deaths. Mental health conditions were common causes of death among non-Hispanic White women during pregnancy and in late postpartum. CONCLUSION: Continued monitoring, collecting and analyzing reliable data will help identify root causes and find ways to eliminate the disproportionate burden of pregnancy-related deaths in the State of Georgia.

Characterization of Caulimovirid-like Sequences from Upland Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) Exhibiting Terminal Abortion in Georgia, USA.

In this study, we investigated the potential involvement of endogenous viral elements (EVEs) in the development of apical tissue necrosis, resulting in the terminal abortion of upland cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) in Georgia. The high-throughput sequence analysis of symptomatic and asymptomatic plant tissue samples revealed near-complete EVE-Georgia (EVE-GA) sequences closely related to caulimoviruses. The analysis of EVE-GA's putative open reading frames (ORFs) compared to cotton virus A and endogenous cotton pararetroviral elements (eCPRVE) revealed their similarity in putative ORFs 1-4. However, in the ORF 5 and ORF 6 encoding putative coat protein and reverse transcriptase, respectively, the sequences from EVE-GA have stop codons similar to eCPRVE sequences from Mississippi. In silico mining of the cotton genome database using EVE-GA as a query uncovered near-complete viral sequence insertions in the genomes of G. hirsutum species (~7 kb) but partial in G. tomentosum (~5.3 kb) and G. mustelinum (~5.1 kb) species. Furthermore, cotton EVEs' episomal forms and messenger RNA (mRNA) transcripts were detected in both symptomatic and asymptomatic plants collected from cotton fields. No significant yield difference was observed between symptomatic and asymptomatic plants of the two varieties evaluated in the experimental plot. Additionally, EVEs were also detected in cotton seeds and seedlings. This study emphasizes the need for future research on EVE sequences, their coding capacity, and any potential role in host immunity or pathogenicity.

Project DINE: Addressing Disparities in Nutrition and Maternal Mortality and Morbidity through Nutrition and Father Engagement.

This study assessed the outcomes of an intervention (Project DINE) that added nutrition and breastfeeding education to Healthy Start programs in Georgia for a sample of Black expecting parents. Using a community-based participatory approach and a 2 × 2 randomized cluster factorial design, three of six Healthy Start sites were intervention sites. Participants completed the Adult Food and Physical Activity Behavior Questionnaire and a breastfeeding education survey pre- and post-intervention. Paired t-tests determined that there was an improvement in overall self-reported diet quality among the expecting couples (n=61; p = .025). Breastfeeding survey data showed that the percentage of correct answers increased from 78% to 84% (n=89; p=.0009) for all participants. Qualitative data were also collected through open-ended responses on the breastfeeding post-test (n=66) and focus groups with fathers (n=10). This project demonstrates the need for nutrition and breastfeeding education for both expecting parents during pregnancy to improve maternal health.

Amplifying Youth Voice to Promote Black Youth Mental Health Through Policy in Georgia.

There is an unmet need for mental health policies that are culturally competent, engaging, and equitable for Black youth. This paper describes a youth-adult partnership advisory council approach to identify, assess, and measure the effectiveness of innovative policy solutions to promote Black youth mental health in Georgia.

A Marginalized Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Model for Spatial Data: Modeling COVID-19 Deaths in Georgia.

Spatial count data with an abundance of zeros arise commonly in disease mapping studies. Typically, these data are analyzed using zero-inflated models, which comprise a mixture of a point mass at zero and an ordinary count distribution, such as the Poisson or negative binomial. However, due to their mixture representation, conventional zero-inflated models are challenging to explain in practice because the parameter estimates have conditional latent-class interpretations. As an alternative, several authors have proposed marginalized zero-inflated models that simultaneously model the excess zeros and the marginal mean, leading to a parameterization that more closely aligns with ordinary count models. Motivated by a study examining predictors of COVID-19 death rates, we develop a spatiotemporal marginalized zero-inflated negative binomial model that directly models the marginal mean, thus extending marginalized zero-inflated models to the spatial setting. To capture the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the data, we introduce region-level covariates, smooth temporal effects, and spatially correlated random effects to model both the excess zeros and the marginal mean. For estimation, we adopt a Bayesian approach that combines full-conditional Gibbs sampling and Metropolis-Hastings steps. We investigate features of the model and use the model to identify key predictors of COVID-19 deaths in the US state of Georgia during the 2021 calendar year.

Estimating the potential value of MSM-focused evidence-based implementation interventions in three Ending the HIV Epidemic jurisdictions in the United States: a model-based analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Improving the delivery of existing evidence-based interventions to prevent and diagnose HIV is key to Ending the HIV Epidemic in the United States. Structural barriers in the access and delivery of related health services require municipal or state-level policy changes; however, suboptimal implementation can be addressed directly through interventions designed to improve the reach, effectiveness, adoption or maintenance of available interventions. Our objective was to estimate the cost-effectiveness and potential epidemiological impact of six real-world implementation interventions designed to address these barriers and increase the scale of delivery of interventions for HIV testing and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in three US metropolitan areas. METHODS: We used a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated to replicate HIV microepidemics in Atlanta, Los Angeles (LA) and Miami. We identified six implementation interventions designed to improve HIV testing uptake ("Academic detailing for HIV testing," "CyBER/testing," "All About Me") and PrEP uptake/persistence ("Project SLIP," "PrEPmate," "PrEP patient navigation"). Our comparator scenario reflected a scale-up of interventions with no additional efforts to mitigate implementation and structural barriers. We accounted for potential heterogeneity in population-level effectiveness across jurisdictions. We sustained implementation interventions over a 10-year period and evaluated HIV acquisitions averted, costs, quality-adjusted life years and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios over a 20-year time horizon (2023-2042). RESULTS: Across jurisdictions, implementation interventions to improve the scale of HIV testing were most cost-effective in Atlanta and LA (CyBER/testing cost-saving and All About Me cost-effective), while interventions for PrEP were most cost-effective in Miami (two of three were cost-saving). We estimated that the most impactful HIV testing intervention, CyBER/testing, was projected to avert 111 (95% credible interval: 110-111), 230 (228-233) and 101 (101-103) acquisitions over 20 years in Atlanta, LA and Miami, respectively. The most impactful implementation intervention to improve PrEP engagement, PrEPmate, averted an estimated 936 (929-943), 860 (853-867) and 2152 (2127-2178) acquisitions over 20 years, in Atlanta, LA and Miami, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight the potential impact of interventions to enhance the implementation of existing evidence-based interventions for the prevention and diagnosis of HIV.