Hidden survival heterogeneity of three Common eider populations in response to climate fluctuations.

Understanding how individuals and populations respond to fluctuations in climatic conditions is critical to explain and anticipate changes in ecological systems. Most such studies focus on climate impacts on single populations without considering inter- and intra-population heterogeneity. However, comparing geographically dispersed populations limits the risk of faulty generalizations and helps to improve ecological and demographic models. We aimed to determine whether differences in migration tactics among and within populations would induce inter- or intra-population heterogeneity in survival in relation to winter climate fluctuations. Our study species was the Common eider (Somateria mollissima), a marine duck with a circumpolar distribution, which is strongly affected by climatic conditions during several phases of its annual cycle. Capture-mark-recapture data were collected in two arctic (northern Canada and Svalbard) and one subarctic (northern Norway) population over a period of 18, 15, and 29 years respectively. These three populations have different migration tactics and experience different winter climatic conditions. Using multi-event and mixture modelling, we assessed the association between adult female eider survival and winter conditions as measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. We found that winter weather conditions affected the survival of female eiders from each of these three populations. However, different mechanisms seemed to be involved. Survival of the two migrating arctic populations was impacted directly by changes in the NAO, whereas the subarctic resident population was affected by the NAO with time lags of 2-3 years. Moreover, we found evidence for intra-population heterogeneity in the survival response to the winter NAO in the Canadian eider population, where individuals migrate to distinct wintering areas. Our results illustrate how individuals and populations of the same species can vary in their responses to climate variation. We suspect that the found variation in the survival response of birds to winter conditions is partly explained by differences in migration tactic. Detecting and accounting for inter- and intra-population heterogeneity will improve our predictions concerning the response of wildlife to global changes.

Highlighting the positive aspects of being a PhD student.

Articles about doing a PhD tend to focus on the difficulties faced by research students. Here we argue that the scientific community should also highlight the positive elements of the PhD experience.

Covariate and multinomial: Accounting for distance in movement in capture-recapture analyses.

Many biological quantities cannot be measured directly but rather need to be estimated from models. Estimates from models are statistical objects with variance and, when derived simultaneously, covariance. It is well known that their variance-covariance (VC) matrix must be considered in subsequent analyses. Although it is always preferable to carry out the proposed analyses on the raw data themselves, a two-step approach cannot always be avoided. This situation arises when the parameters of a multinomial must be regressed against a covariate. The Delta method is an appropriate and frequently recommended way of deriving variance approximations of transformed and correlated variables. Implementing the Delta method is not trivial, and there is a lack of a detailed information on the procedure in the literature for complex situations such as those involved in constraining the parameters of a multinomial distribution. This paper proposes a how-to guide for calculating the correct VC matrices of dependant estimates involved in multinomial distributions and how to use them for testing the effects of covariates in post hoc analyses when the integration of these analyses directly into a model is not possible. For illustrative purpose, we focus on variables calculated in capture-recapture models, but the same procedure can be applied to all analyses dealing with correlated estimates with multinomial distribution and their variances and covariances.

Mind the wind: microclimate effects on incubation effort of an arctic seabird.

The energetic costs of reproduction in birds strongly depend on the climate experienced during incubation. Climate change and increasing frequency of extreme weather events may severely affect these costs, especially for species incubating in extreme environments. In this 3-year study, we used an experimental approach to investigate the effects of microclimate and nest shelter on the incubation effort of female common eiders (Somateria mollissima) in a wild Arctic population. We added artificial shelters to a random selection of nesting females, and compared incubation effort, measured as body mass loss during incubation, between females with and without shelter. Nonsheltered females had a higher incubation effort than females with artificial shelters. In nonsheltered females, higher wind speeds increased the incubation effort, while artificially sheltered females experienced no effect of wind. Although increasing ambient temperatures tended to decrease incubation effort, this effect was negligible in the absence of wind. Humidity had no marked effect on incubation effort. This study clearly displays the direct effect of a climatic variable on an important aspect of avian life-history. By showing that increasing wind speed counteracts the energetic benefits of a rising ambient temperature, we were able to demonstrate that a climatic variable other than temperature may also affect wild populations and need to be taken into account when predicting the effects of climate change.