The association between neighborhood-level income and cancer stage at diagnosis and survival in Alberta.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with a range of health outcomes, including cancer diagnosis and survival. However, the evidence for this association is inconsistent between countries with and without single-payer health care systems. In this study, the relationships between neighborhood-level income, cancer stage at diagnosis, and cancer-specific mortality in Alberta, Canada, were evaluated. METHODS: The Alberta Cancer Registry was used to identify all primary cancer diagnoses between 2010 and 2020. Average neighborhood income was determined by linking the Canadian census to postal codes and was categorized into quintiles on the basis of income distribution in Alberta. Multivariable multinomial logistic regression was used to model the association between income quintile and stage at diagnosis, and the Fine-Gray proportional subdistribution hazards model was used to estimate the association between SES and cancer-specific mortality. RESULTS: Out of the 143,818 patients with cancer included in the study, those in lower income quintiles were significantly more likely to be diagnosed at stage III (odds ratio [OR], 1.07; 95% CI [confidence interval], 1.06-1.09) or IV (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.11-1.14) after adjusting for age and sex. Lower income quintiles also had significantly worse cancer-specific survival for breast, colorectal, liver, lung, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, oral cavity, pancreas, and prostate cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Disparities were observed in cancer outcomes across neighborhood-level income groups in Alberta, which demonstrates that health inequities by SES exist in countries with single-payer health care systems. Further research is needed to better understand the underlying causes and to develop strategies to mitigate these disparities.

Radiomics analysis to predict pulmonary nodule malignancy using machine learning approaches.

BACKGROUND: Low-dose CT screening can reduce lung cancer-related mortality. However, most screen-detected pulmonary abnormalities do not develop into cancer and it often remains challenging to identify malignant nodules, particularly among indeterminate nodules. We aimed to develop and assess prediction models based on radiological features to discriminate between benign and malignant pulmonary lesions detected on a baseline screen. METHODS: Using four international lung cancer screening studies, we extracted 2060 radiomic features for each of 16 797 nodules (513 malignant) among 6865 participants. After filtering out low-quality radiomic features, 642 radiomic and 9 epidemiological features remained for model development. We used cross-validation and grid search to assess three machine learning (ML) models (eXtreme Gradient Boosted Trees, random forest, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)) for their ability to accurately predict risk of malignancy for pulmonary nodules. We report model performance based on the area under the curve (AUC) and calibration metrics in the held-out test set. RESULTS: The LASSO model yielded the best predictive performance in cross-validation and was fit in the full training set based on optimised hyperparameters. Our radiomics model had a test-set AUC of 0.93 (95% CI 0.90 to 0.96) and outperformed the established Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer model (AUC 0.87, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.89) for nodule assessment. Our model performed well among both solid (AUC 0.93, 95% CI 0.89 to 0.97) and subsolid nodules (AUC 0.91, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.95). CONCLUSIONS: We developed highly accurate ML models based on radiomic and epidemiological features from four international lung cancer screening studies that may be suitable for assessing indeterminate screen-detected pulmonary nodules for risk of malignancy.

Body mass index and the prevalence of high-risk colorectal adenomas in a population undergoing screening colonoscopy in Alberta, Canada.

PURPOSE: There is limited evidence regarding body mass index (BMI) as an early marker of high-risk adenoma (HRA) at the time of screening colonoscopy. Because high-risk adenomas (HRA) can develop into colorectal cancer (CRC), BMI could serve as an important clinical predictor of future risk of CRC. METHODS: We examined data from 1831 adults undergoing screening colonoscopy at the Forzani & MacPhail Colon Cancer Screening Center in Alberta, Canada. We fit multivariable logistic regression models to examine the association between BMI and HRA. Non-linear relationships for BMI on HRA were also evaluated using restricted cubic splines. RESULTS: The mean BMI in patients with HRA was 28.2 kg/m2 compared to 27.4 kg/m2 in patients without adenomas (t test: p = 0.003). In the adjusted models, those with a BMI over 30 kg/m2 had 1.45 (95% CI 1.05-2.00) times the odds of HRA detected during colonoscopy compared to those with a BMI below 25 kg/m2. Examining BMI as continuous, the odds of HRA were 1.20 (95% CI 1.04-1.37) times higher for every 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI. CONCLUSION: The findings of this study suggest that excess body mass is associated with higher risk of HRA among a screening population and may be useful an early marker of future disease.

Next Generation Weight Loss Drugs for the Prevention of Cancer?

Background: Western populations are losing the battle over healthy weight management, and excess body weight is a notable cancer risk factor at the population level. There is ongoing interest in pharmacological interventions aimed at promoting weight loss, including GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA), which may be a useful tool to stem the rising tide of obesity-related cancers. Purpose: To investigate the potential of next generation weight loss drugs (NGWLD) like GLP-1RA in population-level chemoprevention.Research Design: We used the OncoSim microsimulation tool to estimate the population-level reductions in obesity and the potentially avoidable obesity-related cancers in Canada over the next 25 years.Results: We estimated a total of 71 281 preventable cancers by 2049, with 36 235 and 35 046 cancers prevented for females and males, respectively. Among the 327 254 total projected cancer cases in 2049, 1.3% are estimated to be preventable through intervention with NGWLD.Conclusions: Pharmacologic intervention is not the ideal solution for the obesity-related cancer crisis. However, these agents and subsequent generations provide an additional tool to rapidly reduce body weight and adiposity in populations that have been extremely challenging to reduce weight with standard diet and exercise approaches. Additional research is needed around approaches to prevent initial weight gain and maintain long-term weight loss.

Temperature-dependent radiation sensitivity and order of 70S ribosome crystals.

All evidence to date indicates that at T = 100 K all protein crystals exhibit comparable sensitivity to X-ray damage when quantified using global metrics such as change in scaling B factor or integrated intensity versus dose. This is consistent with observations in cryo-electron microscopy, and results because nearly all diffusive motions of protein and solvent, including motions induced by radiation damage, are frozen out. But how do the sensitivities of different proteins compare at room temperature, where radiation-induced radicals are free to diffuse and protein and lattice structures are free to relax in response to local damage? It might be expected that a large complex with extensive conformational degrees of freedom would be more radiation sensitive than a small, compact globular protein. As a test case, the radiation sensitivity of 70S ribosome crystals has been examined. At T = 100 and 300 K, the half doses are 64 MGy (at 3 Šresolution) and 150 kGy (at 5 Šresolution), respectively. The maximum tolerable dose in a crystallography experiment depends upon the initial or desired resolution. When differences in initial data-set resolution are accounted for, the former half dose is roughly consistent with that for model proteins, and the 100/300 K half-dose ratio is roughly a factor of ten larger. 70S ribosome crystals exhibit substantially increased resolution at 100 K relative to 300 K owing to cooling-induced ordering and not to reduced radiation sensitivity and slower radiation damage.

Examining external control arms in oncology: A scoping review of applications to date.

OBJECTIVES: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for evaluating the comparative efficacy and safety of new cancer therapies. However, enrolling patients in control arms of clinical trials can be challenging for rare cancers, particularly in the context of precision oncology and targeted therapies. External Control Arms (ECAs) are a potential solution to address these challenges in clinical research design. We conducted a scoping review to explore the use of ECAs in oncology. METHODS: We systematically searched four databases, namely MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Scopus. We screened titles, abstracts, and full texts for eligible articles focusing on patients undergoing therapy for cancer, employing ECAs, and reporting clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Of the 629 articles screened, 23 were included in this review. The earliest included studies were published in 1996, while most studies were published in the past 5 years. 44% (10/23) of ECAs were employed in blood-related cancer studies. Geographically, 30% (7/23) of studies were conducted in the United States, 22% (5/23) in Japan, and 9% (2/23) in South Korea. The primary data sources used to construct the ECAs involved pooled data from previous trials (35%, 8/23), administrative health databases (17%, 4/23) and electronic medical records (17%, 4/23). While 52% (12/23) of the studies employed methods to align treatment and ECAs characteristics, 48% (11/23) lacked explicit strategies. CONCLUSION: ECAs offer a valuable approach in oncology research, particularly when alternative designs are not feasible. However, careful methodological planning and detailed reporting are essential for meaningful and reliable results.

Age-specific colorectal cancer incidence trends in Canada, 1971-2021.

INTRODUCTION: Colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence among adults younger than 50 years has increased in recent decades, leading to some advocating for lowering the age to start CRC screening. Here, we estimate age-specific trends in CRC incidence in Canada and changes in risk by birth cohort. METHODS: CRC incidence data from 1971 to 2021 by province, sex, and five-year age group (35-64) were obtained from the National Cancer Incidence Reporting System and the Canadian Cancer Registry. Annual percent changes in age-specific or age-adjusted incidence rates were analyzed with joinpoint regression. Birth cohort effect was estimated with age-period-cohort models and reported as cohort incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with respect to the 1947-51 cohort. RESULTS: CRC incidence has increased among all age groups under 50 years, with the largest relative increases occurring in the youngest age group (35-39 years). Males and females had similar incidence trends, though males under age 50 had larger increases than females. The birth cohort analysis showed that males born since 1966 have a significantly higher risk than those born at any other time. CONCLUSIONS: These results up to 2021 confirm and update reports that CRC incidence is increasing among adults under age 50 in Canada and that the youngest birth cohorts carry the highest risk. Future studies should assess the effectiveness of CRC screening in younger populations.

Examining breast cancer screening recommendations in Canada: The projected resource impact of screening among women aged 40-49.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the resource use of revising breast cancer screening guidelines to include average-risk women aged 40-49 years across Canada from 2024 to 2043 using a validated microsimulation model. SETTING: OncoSim-Breast microsimulation platform was used to simulate the entire Canadian population in 2015-2051. METHODS: We compared resource use between current screening guidelines (biennial screening ages 50-74) and alternate screening scenarios, which included annual and biennial screening for ages 40-49 and ages 45-49, followed by biennial screening ages 50-74. We estimated absolute and relative differences in number of screens, abnormal screening recalls without cancer, total and negative biopsies, screen-detected cancers, stage of diagnosis, and breast cancer deaths averted. RESULTS: Compared with current guidelines in Canada, the most intensive screening scenario (annual screening ages 40-49) would result in 13.3% increases in the number of screens and abnormal screening recalls without cancer whereas the least intensive scenario (biennial screening ages 45-49) would result in a 3.4% increase in number of screens and 3.8% increase in number of abnormal screening recalls without cancer. More intensive screening would be associated with fewer stage II, III, and IV diagnoses, and more breast cancer deaths averted. CONCLUSIONS: Revising breast cancer screening in Canada to include average-risk women aged 40-49 would detect cancers earlier leading to fewer breast cancer deaths. To realize this potential clinical benefit, a considerable increase in screening resources would be required in terms of number of screens and screen follow-ups. Further economic analyses are required to fully understand cost and budget implications.

Real-World Treatment Patterns, Health Outcomes, and Healthcare Resource Use in Advanced Common EGFR-Positive Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients Treated with Osimertinib in Alberta.

There is limited information on the treatment trajectory and outcomes of patients with advanced cEGFRm NSCLC treated with osimertinib in routine clinical practice in Canada. By using and analyzing population-based administrative data and detailed chart abstraction in the province of Alberta, our objective was to capture Canadian-specific real-world treatment patterns, health outcomes, and healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) in advanced cEGFRm NSCLC patients who were (a) treated with osimertinib and (b) those receiving treatment after osimertinib. In our study cohort, we found that the overall survival rates for real-world patients receiving osimertinib were less favorable than those observed in clinical trials (24.0 versus 38.6 months). The attrition rate after osimertinib was substantial and high HCRU persisted across many years after diagnosis and treatment. This study provides important real-world evidence on contemporary survival, treatment patterns, and healthcare use among cEGFRm NSCLC patients treated with osimertinib and suggests that further research efforts are needed to improve therapeutic options in both the first and subsequent line settings.

Progress in site-specific cancer mortality in Canada over the last 70 years.

In Canada, the absolute number of cancer deaths has been steadily increasing, however, age-standardized cancer mortality rates peaked decades ago for most cancers. The objective of this study was to estimate the reduction in deaths for each cancer type under the scenario where peak mortality rates had remained stable in Canada. Data for this study were obtained the Global Cancer Observatory and Statistics Canada. We estimated age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR, per 100,000) from 1950 to 2022, standardized to the 2011 Canadian standard population. We identified peak mortality rates and applied the age-specific mortality rates from the peak year to the age-specific Canadian population estimates for subsequent years (up to 2022) to estimate the number of expected deaths. Avoided cancer deaths were the difference between the observed and expected number of cancer deaths. There have been major reductions in deaths among cancers related to tobacco consumption and other modifiable lifestyle habits (417,561 stomach; 218,244 colorectal; 186,553 lung; 66,281 cervix; 32,732 head and neck; 27,713 bladder; 22,464 leukemia; 20,428 pancreas; 8863 kidney; 3876 esophagus; 290 liver). There have been 201,979 deaths avoided for female-specific cancers (breast, cervix, ovary, uterus). Overall, there has been a 34% reduction in mortality for lung cancer among males and a 9% reduction among females. There has been a significant reduction in cancer mortality in Canada since site-specific cancer mortality rates peaked decades ago for many cancers. This shows the exceptional progress made in cancer control in Canada due to substantial improvements in prevention, screening, and treatment. This study highlights priority areas where more attention and investment are needed to achieve progress.

Breaking the radiation damage limit with Cryo-SAXS.

Small angle x-ray scattering (SAXS) is a versatile and widely used technique for obtaining low-resolution structures of macromolecules and complexes. SAXS experiments measure molecules in solution, without the need for labeling or crystallization. However, radiation damage currently limits the application of SAXS to molecules that can be produced in microgram quantities; for typical proteins, 10-20 µL of solution at 1 mg/mL is required to accumulate adequate signal before irreversible x-ray damage is observed. Here, we show that cryocooled proteins and nucleic acids can withstand doses at least two orders of magnitude larger than room temperature samples. We demonstrate accurate T = 100 K particle envelope reconstructions from sample volumes as small as 15 nL, a factor of 1000 smaller than in current practice. Cryo-SAXS will thus enable structure determination of difficult-to-express proteins and biologically important, highly radiation-sensitive proteins including light-activated switches and metalloenzymes.

Global radiation damage: temperature dependence, time dependence and how to outrun it.

A series of studies that provide a consistent and illuminating picture of global radiation damage to protein crystals, especially at temperatures above ∼200 K, are described. The radiation sensitivity shows a transition near 200 K, above which it appears to be limited by solvent-coupled diffusive processes. Consistent with this interpretation, a component of global damage proceeds on timescales of several minutes at 180 K, decreasing to seconds near room temperature. As a result, data collection times of order 1 s allow up to half of global damage to be outrun at 260 K. Much larger damage reductions near room temperature should be feasible using larger dose rates delivered using microfocused beams, enabling a significant expansion of structural studies of proteins under more nearly native conditions.

Critical droplet theory explains the glass formability of aqueous solutions.

When pure water is cooled at ~10(6) K / s, it forms an amorphous solid (glass) instead of the more familiar crystalline phase. The presence of solutes can reduce this required (or "critical") cooling rate by orders of magnitude. Here, we present critical cooling rates for a variety of solutes as a function of concentration and a theoretical framework for understanding these rates. For all solutes tested, the critical cooling rate is an exponential function of concentration. The exponential's characteristic concentration for each solute correlates with the solute's Stokes radius. A modification of critical droplet theory relates the characteristic concentration to the solute radius and the critical nucleation radius of ice in pure water. This simple theory of ice nucleation and glass formability in aqueous solutions has consequences for general glass-forming systems, and in cryobiology, cloud physics, and climate modeling.

Probability of lung cancer in a population excluded from screening due to low PLCOM2012 risk.

BACKGROUND: Several randomized trials demonstrated have reduced lung cancer mortality with screening using computed tomography. However, there remains debate about the optimal approach for determining screening eligibility, and no evidence yet exists reporting lung cancer rates in those excluded from screening due to too low of a personalized risk. METHODS: This study was based on the Alberta Lung Cancer Screening Study, which received 1737 applicants and enrolled 850 based on the NLST criteria or a PLCOM2012 risk ≥ 1.5%. We excluded 887 applicants who were interested in screening but deemed ineligible. We report lung cancer rates in the screened and unscreened cohorts. RESULTS: We observed 30 and 8 lung cancers in the screened and unscreened groups, respectively. Only 1 of 8 lung cancers were among those considered too low risk (0.14%), while the remaining 7 were among those excluded for other reasons, including symptoms requiring more immediate workup. No NLST eligible but PLCO risk < 1.5% screened individual had a lung cancer detected as part of the study, so that of all applicants contacting the program with risk estimates less than 1.5%, only 1/857 (0.12%) developed lung cancer. CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate that a risk-based approach for screening eligibility is unlikely to miss many lung cancers.

Progress in cancer control leads to a substantial number of cancer deaths avoided in Canada.

It is currently not known how many more cancer deaths would have occurred among Canadians if cancer mortality rates were unchanged following various modern human interventions. The objective of this study was to estimate the number of cancer deaths that have been avoided in Canada since the age-standardized overall cancer mortality rate peaked in 1988. We applied the age-specific overall cancer mortality rates from 1988 to the Canadian population for all subsequent years to estimate the number of expected deaths. Avoided cancer deaths were estimated as the difference between the observed and expected number of cancer deaths for each year. Since 1988, there have been 372 584 (standardized mortality ratio = 0.77) and 120 045 (standardized mortality ratio = 0.90) avoided cancer deaths in males and females, respectively (492 629 total). Nearly half a million cancer deaths have been avoided in Canada since the overall cancer mortality rate peaked, which demonstrates the exceptional progress made in modern cancer control in Canada.

Using Recurrent Neural Networks to Extract High-Quality Information From Lung Cancer Screening Computerized Tomography Reports for Inter-Radiologist Audit and Feedback Quality Improvement.

PURPOSE: Lung cancer screening programs generate a high volume of low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) reports that contain valuable information, typically in a free-text format. High-performance named-entity recognition (NER) models can extract relevant information from these reports automatically for inter-radiologist quality control. METHODS: Using LDCT report data from a longitudinal lung cancer screening program (8,305 reports; 3,124 participants; 2006-2019), we trained a rule-based model and two bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) NER neural network models to detect clinically relevant information from LDCT reports. Model performance was tested using F1 scores and compared with a published open-source radiology NER model (Stanza) in an independent evaluation set of 150 reports. The top performing model was applied to a data set of 6,948 reports for an inter-radiologist quality control assessment. RESULTS: The best performing model, a Bi-LSTM NER recurrent neural network model, had an overall F1 score of 0.950, which outperformed Stanza (F1 score = 0.872) and a rule-based NER model (F1 score = 0.809). Recall (sensitivity) for the best Bi-LSTM model ranged from 0.916 to 0.991 for different entity types; precision (positive predictive value) ranged from 0.892 to 0.997. Test performance remained stable across time periods. There was an average of a 2.86-fold difference in the number of identified entities between the most and the least detailed radiologists. CONCLUSION: We built an open-source Bi-LSTM NER model that outperformed other open-source or rule-based radiology NER models. This model can efficiently extract clinically relevant information from lung cancer screening computerized tomography reports with high accuracy, enabling efficient audit and feedback to improve quality of patient care.

Circulating proteome for pulmonary nodule malignancy.

BACKGROUND: Although lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography is rolling out in many areas of the world, differentiating indeterminate pulmonary nodules remains a major challenge. We conducted one of the first systematic investigations of circulating protein markers to differentiate malignant from benign screen-detected pulmonary nodules. METHODS: Based on 4 international low-dose computed tomography screening studies, we assayed 1078 protein markers using prediagnostic blood samples from 1253 participants based on a nested case-control design. Protein markers were measured using proximity extension assays, and data were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression, random forest, and penalized regressions. Protein burden scores (PBSs) for overall nodule malignancy and imminent tumors were estimated. RESULTS: We identified 36 potentially informative circulating protein markers differentiating malignant from benign nodules, representing a tightly connected biological network. Ten markers were found to be particularly relevant for imminent lung cancer diagnoses within 1 year. Increases in PBSs for overall nodule malignancy and imminent tumors by 1 standard deviation were associated with odds ratios of 2.29 (95% confidence interval: 1.95 to 2.72) and 2.81 (95% confidence interval: 2.27 to 3.54) for nodule malignancy overall and within 1 year of diagnosis, respectively. Both PBSs for overall nodule malignancy and for imminent tumors were substantially higher for those with malignant nodules than for those with benign nodules, even when limited to Lung Computed Tomography Screening Reporting and Data System (LungRADS) category 4 (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Circulating protein markers can help differentiate malignant from benign pulmonary nodules. Validation with an independent computed tomographic screening study will be required before clinical implementation.

Design and methodological considerations for biomarker discovery and validation in the Integrative Analysis of Lung Cancer Etiology and Risk (INTEGRAL) Program.

The Integrative Analysis of Lung Cancer Etiology and Risk (INTEGRAL) program is an NCI-funded initiative with an objective to develop tools to optimize low-dose CT (LDCT) lung cancer screening. Here, we describe the rationale and design for the Risk Biomarker and Nodule Malignancy projects within INTEGRAL. The overarching goal of these projects is to systematically investigate circulating protein markers to include on a panel for use (i) pre-LDCT, to identify people likely to benefit from screening, and (ii) post-LDCT, to differentiate benign versus malignant nodules. To identify informative proteins, the Risk Biomarker project measured 1161 proteins in a nested-case control study within 2 prospective cohorts (n = 252 lung cancer cases and 252 controls) and replicated associations for a subset of proteins in 4 cohorts (n = 479 cases and 479 controls). Eligible participants had a current or former history of smoking and cases were diagnosed up to 3 years following blood draw. The Nodule Malignancy project measured 1078 proteins among participants with a heavy smoking history within four LDCT screening studies (n = 425 cases diagnosed up to 5 years following blood draw, 430 benign-nodule controls, and 398 nodule-free controls). The INTEGRAL panel will enable absolute quantification of 21 proteins. We will evaluate its performance in the Risk Biomarker project using a case-cohort study including 14 cohorts (n = 1696 cases and 2926 subcohort representatives), and in the Nodule Malignancy project within five LDCT screening studies (n = 675 cases, 680 benign-nodule controls, and 648 nodule-free controls). Future progress to advance lung cancer early detection biomarkers will require carefully designed validation, translational, and comparative studies.

Spatial distribution of radiation damage to crystalline proteins at 25-300 K.

The spatial distribution of radiation damage (assayed by increases in atomic B factors) to thaumatin and urease crystals at temperatures ranging from 25 to 300 K is reported. The nature of the damage changes dramatically at approximately 180 K. Above this temperature the role of solvent diffusion is apparent in thaumatin crystals, as solvent-exposed turns and loops are especially sensitive. In urease, a flap covering the active site is the most sensitive part of the molecule and nearby loops show enhanced sensitivity. Below 180 K sensitivity is correlated with poor local packing, especially in thaumatin. At all temperatures, the component of the damage that is spatially uniform within the unit cell accounts for more than half of the total increase in the atomic B factors and correlates with changes in mosaicity. This component may arise from lattice-level, rather than local, disorder. The effects of primary structure on radiation sensitivity are small compared with those of tertiary structure, local packing, solvent accessibility and crystal contacts.