Respiratory pathogen dynamics in community fever cases: Jiangsu Province, China (2023-2024).

BACKGROUND: Respiratory infectious diseases have the highest incidence among infectious diseases worldwide. Currently, global monitoring of respiratory pathogens primarily focuses on influenza and coronaviruses. This study included influenza and other common respiratory pathogens to establish a local respiratory pathogen spectrum. We investigated and analyzed the co-infection patterns of these pathogens and explored the impact of lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the transmission of influenza and other respiratory pathogens. Additionally, we used a predictive model for infectious diseases, utilizing the commonly used An autoregressive comprehensive moving average model (ARIMA), which can effectively forecast disease incidence. METHODS: From June 2023 to February 2024, we collected influenza-like illness (ILI) cases weekly from the community in Xuanwu District, Nanjing, and obtained 2046 samples. We established a spectrum of respiratory pathogens in Nanjing and analysed the age distribution and clinical symptom distribution of various pathogens. We compared age, gender, symptom counts, and viral loads between individuals with co-infections and those with single infections. An autoregressive comprehensive moving average model (ARIMA) was constructed to predict the incidence of respiratory infectious diseases. RESULTS: Among 2046 samples, the total detection rate of respiratory pathogen nucleic acids was 53.37% (1092/2046), with influenza A virus 479 cases (23.41%), influenza B virus 224 cases (10.95%), and HCoV 95 cases (4.64%) being predominant. Some pathogens were statistically significant in age and number of symptoms. The positive rate of mixed infections was 6.11% (125/2046). There was no significant difference in age or number of symptoms between co-infection and simple infection. After multiple iterative analyses, an ARIMA model (0,1,4), (0,0,0) was established as the optimal model, with an R2 value of 0.930, indicating good predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS: The spectrum of respiratory pathogens in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, was complex in the past. The primary age groups of different viruses were different, causing various symptoms, and the co-infection of viruses did not correlate with the age and gender of patients. The ARIMA model estimated future incidence, which plateaued in subsequent months.

Insights into epidemiological trends of severe chest injuries: an analysis of age, period, and cohort from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: This study assessed the global trends and burden of severe chest injury, including rib fractures, lung contusions, and heart injuries from 1990 to 2019. Herein, we predicted the burden patterns and temporal trends of severe chest injuries to provide epidemiological evidence globally and in China. METHODS: In our analysis, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence rate (ASPR), and years lived with disability rate (ASYR) of severe chest injury were analyzed by gender, age, sociodemographic index, and geographical region between 1990 and 2019 using data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. Trends were depicted by calculating the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). The impact of age, period, and cohort factors was assessed using an Age-Period-Cohort model. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to predict severe chest injury trends from 2020 to 2050. RESULTS: In 2019, the global number of severe chest injury cases reached 7.95 million, with the highest incidence rate observed in Central Europe (209.61). Afghanistan had the highest ASIRs at 277.52, while North Korea had the lowest ASIRs at 41.02. From 1990 to 2019, the Syrian Arab Republic saw significant increases in ASIR, ASPR, and ASYR, with EAPCs of 10.4%, 9.31%, and 10.3%, respectively. Burundi experienced a decrease in ASIR with an EAPC of - 6.85% (95% confidence interval [CI] - 11.11, - 2.37), while Liberia's ASPR and ASYR declined with EAPCs of - 3.22% (95% CI - 4.73, - 1.69) and - 5.67% (95% CI - 8.00, - 3.28), respectively. Falls and road injuries remained the most common causes. The relative risk of severe chest injury by age, period, and cohort demonstrated a complex effect globally and in China. The ARIMA model forecasted a steady increase in global numbers from 2020 to 2050, while in China, it forecasted an increase in incidence, a decrease in ASIR and ASYR, and an increase in ASPR. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a groundbreaking analysis of global severe chest injury, shedding light on its measures and impact. These findings highlight the need for timely, specialized care and addressing regional disparities to mitigate the severe chest injury burden.

Prediction of acute onset of chronic cor pulmonale: comparative analysis of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and ARIMA model.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study is to analyze the trend of acute onset of chronic cor pulmonale at Chenggong Hospital of Kunming Yan'an Hospital between January 2018 and December 2022.Additionally, the study will compare the application of the ARIMA model and Holt-Winters model in predicting the number of chronic cor pulmonale cases. METHODS: The data on chronic cor pulmonale cases from 2018 to 2022 were collected from the electronic medical records system of Chenggong Hospital of Kunming Yan'an Hospital. The ARIMA and Holt-Winters models were constructed using monthly case numbers from January 2018 to December 2022 as training data. The performance of the model was tested using the monthly number of cases from January 2023 to December 2023 as the test set. RESULTS: The number of acute onset of chronic cor pulmonale in Chenggong Hospital of Kunming Yan'an Hospital exhibited a downward trend overall from 2018 to 2022. There were more cases in winter and spring, with peaks observed in November to December and January of the following year. The optimal ARIMA model was determined to be ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1)12, while for the Holt-Winters model, the optimal choice was the Holt-Winters multiplicative model. It was found that the Holt-Winters multiplicative model yielded the lowest error. CONCLUSION: The Holt-Winters multiplicative model predicts better accuracy. The diagnosis of acute onset of chronic cor pulmonale is related to many risk factors, therefore, when using temporal models to fit and predict the data, we must consider such factors' influence and try to incorporate them into the models.

An autoregressive integrated moving average and long short-term memory (ARIM-LSTM) hybrid model for multi-source epidemic data prediction.

The COVID-19 pandemic has far-reaching impacts on the global economy and public health. To prevent the recurrence of pandemic outbreaks, the development of short-term prediction models is of paramount importance. We propose an ARIMA-LSTM (autoregressive integrated moving average and long short-term memory) model for predicting future cases and utilize multi-source data to enhance prediction performance. Firstly, we employ the ARIMA-LSTM model to forecast the developmental trends of multi-source data separately. Subsequently, we introduce a Bayes-Attention mechanism to integrate the prediction outcomes from auxiliary data sources into the case data. Finally, experiments are conducted based on real datasets. The results demonstrate a close correlation between predicted and actual case numbers, with superior prediction performance of this model compared to baseline and other state-of-the-art methods.

A SEER-based analysis of trends in HPV-associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The proportional trends of HPV-associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) according to various factors have not been analyzed in detail in previous studies. We aimed to evaluate the trends of HPV-associated OPSCC in the United States. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included 13,081 patients with OPSCC from large population-based data using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 2010-2017 database, 17 Registries. Patients were diagnosed with OPSCC primarily in the base of tongue (BOT), posterior pharyngeal wall (PPW), soft palate (SP), and tonsil and were tested for HPV infection status. We analyzed how the proportional trends of patients with OPSCC changed according to various demographic factors. Additionally, we forecasted and confirmed the trend of HPV (+) and (-) patients with OPSCC using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. RESULTS: The proportion of patients who performed the HPV testing increased every year, and it has exceeded 50% since 2014 (21.95% and 51.37% at 2010 and 2014, respectively). The HPV-positive rates tended to increase over past 7 years (66.37% and 79.32% at 2010 and 2016, respectively). Positivity rates of HPV were significantly higher in OPSCC located in the tonsil or BOT than in those located in PPW or SP. The ARIMA (2,1,0) and (0,1,0) models were applied to forecast HPV (+) and (-) patients with OPSCC, respectively, and the predicted data generally matched the actual data well. CONCLUSION: This large population-based study suggests that the proportional trends of HPV (+) patients with OPSCC has increased and will continue to increase. However, the trends of HPV (+) and (-) patients differed greatly according to various demographic factors. These results present a direction for establishing appropriate preventive measures to deal with HPV-related OPSCC in more detail.

Time series traffic collision analysis of London hotspots: Patterns, predictions and prevention strategies.

Despite recent measures on accident prevention, road collisions, mainly on London's "A" roads, persist as accident sources, endangering vulnerable users in particular. Analysing evidence from London's A-Roads unveils issues concerns and trends. This study utilises extensive data to target factors magnifying accidents: speed, traffic, vulnerable interactions. Stats 19 and transport data including volumes, types, speeds, and congestion parameters are all analysed alongside the collision data. The descriptive statistics have been employed to understand nature of data in the first instance. This has supported the process to cleanse the data outliers or periods where were subjected to incidents and interventions. Predictive model development is conducted to analyse and forecast accident frequency using ARIMA and SARIMAX models forecasted accident rates and interventions. ARIMA yielded higher accuracy. Method of analysis resulted in a statistically reliable formulation of the main factors, enabling use of this method for similar cities across the world. Formulated analysis revealed key contributors as population density, weather, and time of the day. The analysis of data supported identification of strategies emerging as infrastructure improvements, traffic control measures and severity and vulnerable users affected in particular. The analysis reveals distinct exhibits of causation, leading to focused recommendations on infrastructure enhancements, traffic control measures, and the impact on severity and vulnerable users, deviating from prior research findings. Insights aid safer London roads, have global predictive and mitigation value.

Development of a novel dynamic nosocomial infection risk management method for COVID-19 in outpatient settings.

BACKGROUND: Application of accumulated experience and management measures in the prevention and control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has generally depended on the subjective judgment of epidemic intensity, with the quality of prevention and control management being uneven. The present study was designed to develop a novel risk management system for COVID-19 infection in outpatients, with the ability to provide accurate and hierarchical control based on estimated risk of infection. METHODS: Infection risk was estimated using an auto regressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA). Weekly surveillance data on influenza-like-illness (ILI) among outpatients at Xuanwu Hospital Capital Medical University and Baidu search data downloaded from the Baidu Index in 2021 and 22 were used to fit the ARIMA model. The ability of this model to estimate infection risk was evaluated by determining the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), with a Delphi process used to build consensus on hierarchical infection control measures. COVID-19 control measures were selected by reviewing published regulations, papers and guidelines. Recommendations for surface sterilization and personal protection were determined for low and high risk periods, with these recommendations implemented based on predicted results. RESULTS: The ARIMA model produced exact estimates for both the ILI and search engine data. The MAPEs of 20-week rolling forecasts for these datasets were 13.65% and 8.04%, respectively. Based on these two risk levels, the hierarchical infection prevention methods provided guidelines for personal protection and disinfection. Criteria were also established for upgrading or downgrading infection prevention strategies based on ARIMA results. CONCLUSION: These innovative methods, along with the ARIMA model, showed efficient infection protection for healthcare workers in close contact with COVID-19 infected patients, saving nearly 41% of the cost of maintaining high-level infection prevention measures and enhancing control of respiratory infections.

Recruitment Patterns and Environmental Sensitivity of Glass Eels of Anguilla japonica in the Yangtze Estuary, China.

The decline of Japanese eel (Anguilla japonica) populations in the Yangtze River estuary represents a critical conservation concern. Eleven-years of daily catch data during recruitment periods (i.e., January-April, 2012-2022) indicate that annual catch averaged from 153 to 1108 eels, and show a bimodal pattern in glass eel arrivals. Utilizing seasonal-trend decomposition and generalized additive models, we demonstrated a strong correlation between catch abundance, optimal water temperatures, and lunar cycles. An auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model predicts an increase in glass eel numbers for 2023-2024 but also points to a concerning trend of delayed recruitment timing since 2016, attributable to the 0.48 °C per decade rise in sea surface temperatures. This delay correlates with a significant decrease in the average body weight of glass eels, suggesting potential energy deficits that may hinder successful upstream migration. This study not only furthers our understanding of glass eel recruitment dynamics but also underscores the urgent need for targeted conservation measures. Additionally, it highlights the importance of sustained, detailed monitoring to mitigate the detrimental effects of climate change on these eels, vital for preserving the Yangtze River's ecological integrity.

Societal costs of illness for infantile epileptic spasms syndrome and evolutionary cost prediction in the era of WHO's IGAP.

BACKGROUND: To achieve the goal of improving the quality of life for persons with epilepsy within the framework of the WHO's Intersectoral Global Action Plan (IGAP), our study aimed to assess the societal financial burden linked to infantile epileptic spasms syndrome (IESS), ensuring that children afflicted with IESS receive high-quality healthcare without enduring substantial financial constraints. METHODS: Between August 2022 and March 2023, 92 children with IESS (male: female: 2:1), recently diagnosed or previously followed-up, were recruited. We gathered costs for drugs, tests, and medical services, along with legal guardians' monthly income. Total expenditure was determined by multiplying unit costs by the yearly service usage commencing from the onset. Time series analysis was utilised to forecast the financial burden from 2022 to 2032. RESULTS: Clinicians' first choice of treatment was ACTH (n = 60, 65·2%), prednisolone (n = 25, 27·2%), and vigabatrin (n = 7, 7·6%) and the median cost of treatment during the initial year was INR 39,010 [USD 479·2]. The median direct medical, direct non-medical, and indirect cost were INR 31,650 [USD 388·4], INR 6581 [USD 80·8], and INR 10,100 [USD 124·07], respectively. Families lost a median of 12 days of work annually. Drug costs and loss of wages were the key factors in the financial burden. The projected and adjusted figures exhibited an incremental growth rate of 2·6% tri-annually. INTERPRETATION: This pioneering study in developing countries, the first of its kind, evaluates the societal cost, financial hardship, and trajectory of incremental cost in IESS. The primary drivers of the financial burden were pharmacological treatment and family work adjustments. The government shoulders 62% of the financial burden, and projected a triannual growth of 2·6% from 2022 to 2032. Our results rationalize policymakers' focus on incorporating IESS into social security programs, particularly in developing countries.

Model-based analysis of the incidence trends and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 associated with the Omicron variant in representative cities in China.

BACKGROUND: In 2022, Omicron outbreaks occurred at multiple sites in China. It is of great importance to track the incidence trends and transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to guide further interventions. METHODS: Given the population size, economic level and transport level similarities, two groups of outbreaks (Shanghai vs. Chengdu and Sanya vs. Beihai) were selected for analysis. We developed the SEAIQRD, ARIMA, and LSTM models to seek optimal modeling techniques for waves associated with the Omicron variant regarding data predictive performance and mechanism transmission dynamics, respectively. In addition, we quantitatively modeled the impacts of different combinations of more stringent interventions on the course of the epidemic through scenario analyses. RESULTS: The best-performing LSTM model showed better prediction accuracy than the best-performing SEAIQRD and ARIMA models in most cases studied. The SEAIQRD model had an absolute advantage in exploring the transmission dynamics of the outbreaks. Regardless of the time to inflection point or the time to Rt curve below 1.0, Shanghai was later than Chengdu (day 46 vs. day 12/day 54 vs. day 14), and Sanya was later than Beihai (day 16 vs. day 12/day 20 vs. day 16). Regardless of the number of peak cases or the cumulative number of infections, Shanghai was higher than Chengdu (34,350 vs. 188/623,870 vs. 2,181), and Sanya was higher than Beihai (1,105 vs. 203/16,289 vs. 3,184). Scenario analyses suggested that upgrading control level in advance, while increasing the index decline rate and quarantine rate, were of great significance for shortening the time to peak and Rt below 1.0, as well as reducing the number of peak cases and final affected population. CONCLUSIONS: The LSTM model has great potential for predicting the prevalence of Omicron outbreaks, whereas the SEAIQRD model is highly effective in revealing their internal transmission mechanisms. We recommended the use of joint interventions to contain the spread of the virus.

Prediction and evaluation of the energy structure under the green finance development in Chongqing municipality, China.

Chongqing, as the last ecological barrier of the Upper Yangtze River, is constrained to achieve "dual carbon" goals due to imbalanced energy structure. Based on selecting the energy structure influencing factors through Copula function and Granger causality, a multi-dimensional dynamic support vector machine model (SSA-MFD-SVR-ARIMA) by adopting sparrow algorithm was constructed to predict the proportion of Chongqing's energy structure from 2021 to 2030 under the drive of green finance development, and an optimization path was obtained. The novel findings confirm that (1) the correlated contribution rate of Green Finance to optimizing Chongqing's Energy Structure is 10.8 %; (2) under the sustained growth rate of Green Finance at 4.5 %, the proportion of coal consumption will reach 40.03 % by 2030, and non-fossil energy consumption will account for 27 %. It confirms that Chongqing can achieve the Energy Development Plan assigned by the Central Government in 2025. The research proposes a four-dimensional optimized pathway from a financial perspective that includes green equity investments, digital finance for energy, financing environmental rights and interests, and developing an industry fund. Furthermore, our put forward the safeguard strategies for financing, innovation, linkage, and protection mechanisms of this pathway optimization.

Comparison of Three Prediction Models for Predicting Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in China.

Purpose: To predict the future number of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in China and compare the three prediction models. Methods: A generalized additive model (GAM), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and curve-fitting method were used to fit and predict the number of patients with COPD in China. Data on the number of patients with COPD in China from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. The coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean squared error (RMSE), relative error of prediction, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) were used to evaluate and compare the fitting effect, prediction effect, and reliability of the three models. Results: The GAM, ARIMA, and curve-fitting methods could predict future trends in COPD in China. The performance of the GAM is the best among the three models, whereas the curve fitting method is the worst, and the ARIMA (0,1,2) model is in between. The prediction results of the three models showed that the number of patients with COPD in China is expected to increase from 2020 to 2025. Conclusion: GAM and AIRMA models are recommended for predicting the future prevalence of COPD in China. The number of patients with COPD in China is expected to increase in the next few years. The prevention and control of COPD in China still needs to be strengthened. Using appropriate models to predict future trends in COPD will provide support for health policymakers.

Predicting pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in China using Baidu search index: an ARIMAX model approach.

BACKGROUND: Existing researches have established a correlation between internet search data and the epidemics of numerous infectious diseases. This study aims to develop a prediction model to explore the relationship between the Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) epidemic trend in China and the Baidu search index. METHODS: Collect the number of new cases of PTB in China from January 2011 to August 2022. Use Spearman rank correlation and interaction analysis to identify Baidu keywords related to PTB and construct a PTB comprehensive search index. Evaluate the predictive performance of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and ARIMA with explanatory variable (ARIMAX) models for the number of PTB cases. RESULTS: Incidence of PTB had shown a fluctuating downward trend. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient between the PTB comprehensive search index and its incidence was 0.834 (P < 0.001). The ARIMA model had an AIC value of 2804.41, and the MAPE value was 13.19%. The ARIMAX model incorporating the Baidu index demonstrated an AIC value of 2761.58 and a MAPE value of 5.33%. CONCLUSIONS: The ARIMAX model is superior to ARIMA in terms of fitting and predicting accuracy. Additionally, the use of Baidu Index has proven to be effective in predicting cases of PTB.

Incorporating Russo-Ukrainian war in Brent crude oil price forecasting: A comparative analysis of ARIMA, TARMA and ENNReg models.

This article investigates the performance of three models - Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Threshold Autoregressive Moving Average (TARMA) and Evidential Neural Network for Regression (ENNReg) - in forecasting the Brent crude oil price, a crucial economic variable with a significant impact on the global economy. With the increasing complexity of the price dynamics due to geopolitical factors such as the Russo-Ukrainian war, we examine the impact of incorporating information on the war on the forecasting accuracy of these models. Our analysis shows that incorporating the impact of the war can significantly improve the forecasting accuracy of the models, and the ENNReg model with the inclusion of the dummy variable outperforms the other models during the war period. Including the war variable has enhanced the forecasting accuracy of the ENNReg model by 0.11%. These results carry significant implications regarding policymakers, investors, and researchers interested in developing accurate forecasting models in the presence of geopolitical events such as the Russo-Ukrainian war. The results can be used by the governments of oil-exporting countries for budget policies.

Analysis and prediction of the incidence and prevalence trends of gonorrhea in China.

To understand the epidemiological trend of gonorrhea in China from 2004 to 2021, predict the prevalence of the disease, and provide basic theory and data support for monitoring and managing gonorrhea. Gonorrhea incidence data in China from 2004 to 2021 were collected through the China Public Health Science Data Center and National Administration of Disease Prevention and Control, and the incidence and epidemiological characteristics were analyzed. Statistical analysis was performed using Joinpoint and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. A linear correlation model was used to analyze the correlation between gross domestic product (GDP) and the incidence rate. From 2004 to 2021, a total of 2,289,435 cases of gonorrhea were reported in China, with an average reported incidence rate of 9.46/100,000 people and a downward followed by an upward trend. Individuals with gonorrhea were primarily 20-30 y of age, with 1,034,847 cases (53.38%) from 2004 to 2018. The trend of increasing incidence was most obvious in the 10-20 age group (5,811 cases in 2004 to 12,752 cases in 2018, AAPC = 6.1, P < .001). The incidence of gonorrhea in China was negatively correlated with GDP from 2004 to 2021 (r = -0.547, P = .019). The correlation coefficient between the average incidence growth rate of each region from 2012 to 2018 and the average growth rate of regional GDP was 0.673 (P < .01). The root mean square error (RMSE) of the ARIMA model was 4.89%, showing powerful performance. There would be 97,910 gonorrhea cases in 2023 as predicted by the model.

An interpretable time series machine learning method for varying forecast and nowcast lengths in wastewater-based epidemiology.

Wastewater-based epidemiology has emerged as a viable tool for monitoring disease prevalence in a population. This paper details a time series machine learning (TSML) method for predicting COVID-19 cases from wastewater and environmental variables. The TSML method utilizes a number of techniques to create an interpretable, hypothesis-driven framework for machine learning that can handle different nowcast and forecast lengths. Some of the techniques employed include:•Feature engineering to construct interpretable features, like site-specific lead times, hypothesized to be potential predictors of COVID-19 cases.•Feature selection to identify features with the best predictive performance for the tasks of nowcasting and forecasting.•Prequential evaluation to prevent data leakage while evaluating the performance of the machine learning algorithm.

Burden of ischemic stroke in mainland China and Taiwan province from 1990 to 2019: with forecast for the next 11 years.

Ischemic stroke is featured with high incidence, mortality, and disability. The aim of this study is to use Global Burden of Disease database to describe and compare the burden of ischemic stroke in mainland China and Taiwan province and to further predict the expected changes in the next 11 years using statistical modeling methods. Information on ischemic stroke incidence and mortality in China (mainland and Taiwan province) during 1990-2019 was obtained from the Global Burden of Disease database to analyze the effects of region, gender, and age on the incidence and mortality of ischemic stroke in China. The autoregressive integrated moving average model was used to predict the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized mortality rate of ischemic stroke in males and females in mainland China and Taiwan province in the next 11 years. The period from 1990 to 2019 witnessed an overall upward trend in the number of incidence and deaths in mainland China and Taiwan province. In 2019, there were nearly 2.87 million ischemic incidence cases with stroke in mainland China, with more female patients than male in the age group of over 60 years. Among the nearly 1.03 million deaths, the death toll of men under the age of 85 years was higher than that of women, while in Taiwan province, the number of incidence was 28 771, with more female patients of all ages than male. Among the 6788 deaths, the death toll of men under the age of 80 years was higher than that of women. In 2019, the age group with the highest number of patients in the two regions was 65-69 years, while the highest number of deaths was found in people aged 85 years and above. As our autoregressive integrated moving average model predicted, the age-standardized incidence rate value of ischemic stroke is expected to be 163.23/100 000 persons in mainland China by 2030, which would continue to increase, while the age-standardized mortality rate value of ischemic stroke is expected to be 16.41/100 000 persons in Taiwan province by 2030, which showed a decreasing trend. Disease burden of ischemic stroke is still increasing in mainland China and Taiwan province, and health resources should be deployed to implement effective prevention and control strategies, taking into account region, gender, and age.

Forecasting of AQI (PM2.5) for the three most polluted cities in India during COVID-19 by hybrid Daubechies discrete wavelet decomposition and autoregressive (Db-DWD-ARIMA) model.

Air pollution has emerged as a significant environmental challenge at the global level, and India is majorly affected by it. Numerous emission sources, such as automobiles, industries, fuel-burning for household and commercial activities, and dust due to construction activities, are responsible for air pollution. The lockdown in India which was clamped for controlling the spread of virulent disease also brought down the level of pollutants in air significantly. The proposed approach deals with the application of the hybrid model of Daubechies discrete wavelet decomposition (Db-DWD) and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for modeling and forecasting the chaotic data of air quality index (PM2.5) from the three most polluted cities (Agra, New Delhi, and Varanasi) in India for pre and within lockdown periods. The estimated outputs of the component series are then reconstructed to obtain the final forecast of the AQI data. The statistical evaluation compares the performance of the simple ARIMA model and the joint Db-DWD-ARIMA model. Also, the coupled model has been applied for forecasting efficacy with Daubechies mother wavelet of orders 5, 8, 10, and 12. The hybrid model reduced forecasting errors and improved accuracy significantly. Secondly, the forecasting efficiencies in this hybrid model have enhanced with the increase in wavelet order. This study will help to assess and take appropriate steps to control air pollution levels and to monitor the growing air pollutants, which will be significant for our existence.

An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model for Predicting Varicella Outbreaks - China, 2019.

Introduction: Varicella, a prevalent respiratory infection among children, has become an escalating public health issue in China. The potential to considerably mitigate and control these outbreaks lies in surveillance-based early warning systems. This research employed an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with the objective of predicting future varicella outbreaks in the country. Methods: An ARIMA model was developed and fine-tuned using historical data on the monthly instances of varicella outbreaks reported in China from 2005 to 2018. To determine statistically significant models, parameter and Ljung-Box tests were employed. The coefficients of determination (R2) and the normalized Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) were compared to selecting an optimal model. This chosen model was subsequently utilized to forecast varicella outbreak cases for the year 2019. Results: Four models passed parameter (all P<0.05) and Ljung-Box tests (all P>0.05). ARIMA (1, 1, 1)×(0, 1, 1)12 was determined to be the optimal model based on its coefficient of determination R2 (0.271) and standardized BIC (14.970). Fitted values made by the ARIMA (1, 1, 1)×(0, 1, 1)12 model closely followed the values observed in 2019, the average relative error between the actual value and the predicted value is 15.2%. Conclusion: The ARIMA model can be employed to predict impending trends in varicella outbreaks. This serves to offer a scientific benchmark for strategies concerning varicella prevention and control.

Quantifying the potential effects of air pollution reduction on population health and health expenditure in Taiwan.

Air pollution, particularly ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution, poses a significant risk to public health, underscoring the importance of comprehending the long-term impact on health burden and expenditure at national and subnational levels. Therefore, this study aims to quantify the disease burden and healthcare expenditure associated with PM2.5 exposure in Taiwan and assess the potential benefits of reducing pollution levels. Using a comparative risk assessment framework that integrates an auto-aggressive integrated moving average model, we evaluated the avoidable burden of cardiopulmonary diseases (including ischemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and diabetes mellitus) and related healthcare expenditure under different air quality target scenarios, including status quo and target scenarios of 15, 10, and 5 µg/m3 reduction in PM2.5 concentration. Our findings indicate that reducing PM2.5 exposure has the potential to significantly alleviate the burden of multiple diseases. Comparing the estimated attributable disease burden and healthcare expenditure between reference and target scenarios from 2022 to 2050, the avoidable disability-adjusted life years were 0.61, 1.83, and 3.19 million for the 15, 10, and 5 µg/m3 target scenarios, respectively. Correspondingly, avoidable healthcare expenditure ranged from US$ 0.63 to 3.67 billion. We also highlighted the unequal allocation of resources and the need for policy interventions to address health disparities due to air pollution. Notably, in the 5 µg/m3 target scenario, Kaohsiung City stands to benefit the most, with 527,368 disability-adjusted life years avoided and US$ 0.53 billion saved from 2022 to 2050. Our findings suggest that adopting stricter emission targets can effectively reduce the health burden and associated healthcare expenditure in Taiwan. Overall, this study provides policymakers in Taiwan with valuable insights for mitigating the negative effects of air pollution by establishing a comprehensive framework for evaluating the co-benefits of air pollution reduction on healthcare expenditure and disease burden.