Primary and secondary care service use and costs associated with frailty in an ageing population: longitudinal analysis of an English primary care cohort of adults aged 50 and over, 2006-2017.

BACKGROUND: Frailty becomes more prevalent and healthcare needs increase with age. Information on the impact of frailty on population level use of health services and associated costs is needed to plan for ageing populations. AIM: To describe primary and secondary care service use and associated costs by electronic Frailty Index (eFI) category. DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective cohort using electronic health records. Participants aged ≥50 registered in primary care practices contributing to the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre, 2006-2017. METHODS: Primary and secondary care use (totals and means) were stratified by eFI category and age group. Standardised 2017 costs were used to calculate primary, secondary and overall costs. Generalised linear models explored associations between frailty, sociodemographic characteristics. Adjusted mean costs and cost ratios were produced. RESULTS: Individual mean annual use of primary and secondary care services increased with increasing frailty severity. Overall cohort care costs for were highest in mild frailty in all 12 years, followed by moderate and severe, although the proportion of the population with severe frailty can be expected to increase over time. After adjusting for sociodemographic factors, compared to the fit category, individual annual costs doubled in mild frailty, tripled in moderate and quadrupled in severe. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing levels of frailty are associated with an additional burden of individual service use. However, individuals with mild and moderate frailty contribute to higher overall costs. Earlier intervention may have the most potential to reduce service use and costs at population level.

Do home adaptation interventions help to reduce emergency fall admissions? A national longitudinal data-linkage study of 657,536 older adults living in Wales (UK) between 2010 and 2017.

BACKGROUND: falls are common in older people, but evidence for the effectiveness of preventative home adaptations is limited. AIM: determine whether a national home adaptation service, Care&Repair Cymru (C&RC), identified individuals at risk of falls occurring at home and reduced the likelihood of falls. STUDY DESIGN: retrospective longitudinal controlled non-randomised intervention cohort study. SETTING: our cohort consisted of 657,536 individuals aged 60+ living in Wales (UK) between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2017. About 123,729 individuals received a home adaptation service. METHODS: we created a dataset with up to 41 quarterly observations per person. For each quarter, we observed if a fall occurred at home that resulted in either an emergency department or an emergency hospital admission. We analysed the data using multilevel logistic regression. RESULTS: compared to the control group, C&RC clients had higher odds of falling, with an odds ratio (OR [95% confidence interval]) of 1.93 [1.87, 2.00]. Falls odds was higher for females (1.44 [1.42, 1.46]), older age (1.07 [1.07, 1.07]), increased frailty (mild 1.57 [1.55, 1.60], moderate 2.31 [2.26, 2.35], severe 3.05 [2.96, 3.13]), and deprivation (most deprived compared to least: 1.16 [1.13, 1.19]). Client fall odds decreased post-intervention; OR 0.97 [0.96, 0.97] per quarter. Regional variation existed for falls (5.8%), with most variation at the individual level (31.3%). CONCLUSIONS: C&RC identified people more likely to have an emergency fall admission occurring at home, and their service reduced the odds of falling post-intervention. Service provisioning should meet the needs of an individual and need varies by personal and regional circumstance.

External validation of the electronic Frailty Index using the population of Wales within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank.

BACKGROUND: frailty has major implications for health and social care services internationally. The development, validation and national implementation of the electronic Frailty Index (eFI) using routine primary care data has enabled change in the care of older people living with frailty in England. AIMS: to externally validate the eFI in Wales and assess new frailty-related outcomes. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: retrospective cohort study using the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank, comprising 469,000 people aged 65-95, registered with a SAIL contributing general practice on 1 January 2010. METHODS: four categories (fit; mild; moderate and severe) of frailty were constructed using recognised cut points from the eFI. We calculated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) from Cox regression models for validation of existing outcomes: 1-, 3- and 5-year mortality, hospitalisation, and care home admission for validation. We also analysed, as novel outcomes, 1-year mortality following hospitalisation and frailty transition times. RESULTS: HR trends for the validation outcomes in SAIL followed the original results from ResearchOne and THIN databases. Relative to the fit category, adjusted HRs in SAIL (95% CI) for 1-year mortality following hospitalisation were 1.05 (95% CI 1.03-1.08) for mild frailty, 1.24 (95% CI 1.21-1.28) for moderate frailty and 1.51 (95% CI 1.45-1.57) for severe frailty. The median time (lower and upper quartile) between frailty categories was 2,165 days (lower and upper quartiles: 1,510 and 2,831) from fit to mild, 1,155 days (lower and upper quartiles: 756 and 1,610) from mild to moderate and 898 days (lower and upper quartiles: 584 and 1,275) from moderate to severe. CONCLUSIONS: further validation of the eFI showed robust predictive validity and utility for new outcomes.

Study protocol for investigating the impact of community home modification services on hospital utilisation for fall injuries: a controlled longitudinal study using data linkage.

INTRODUCTION: This study will evaluate the effectiveness of home adaptations, both in preventing hospital admissions due to falls for older people, and improving timely discharge. Results will provide evidence for services at the interface between health and social care, informing policies seeking to promote healthy ageing through prudent healthcare and fall prevention. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: All individuals living in Wales, UK, aged 60 years and over, will be included in the study using anonymised linked data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank. We will use a national database of home modifications implemented by the charity organisation Care & Repair Cymru (C&R) from 2009 to 2017 to define an intervention cohort. We will use the electronic Frailty Index to assign individual levels of frailty (fit, mild, moderate or severe) and use these to create a comparator group (non-C&R) of people who have not received a C&R intervention. Coprimary outcomes will be quarterly numbers of emergency hospital admissions attributed to falls at home, and the associated length of stay. Secondary outcomes include the time in moving to a care home following a fall, and the indicative financial costs of care for individuals who had a fall. We will use appropriate multilevel generalised linear models to analyse the number of hospital admissions related to falls. We will use Cox proportional hazard models to compare the length of stay for fall-related hospital admissions and the time in moving to a care home between the C&R and non-C&R cohorts. We will assess the impact per frailty group, correct for population migration and adjust for confounding variables. Indicative costs will be calculated using financial codes for individual-level hospital stays. Results will provide evidence for services at the interface between health and social care, informing policies seeking to promote healthy ageing through prudent healthcare and prevention. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Information governance requirements for the use of record-linked data have been approved and only anonymised data will be used in our analysis. Our results will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals. We will also work with lay members and the knowledge transfer team at Swansea University to create communication and dissemination materials on key findings.

Systematic review of cognitive behavioural therapy for the management of headaches and migraines in adults.

AIM: This systematic review aimed to establish if cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) can reduce the physical symptoms of chronic headache and migraines in adults. METHODS: Evidence from searches of eight databases was systematically sought, appraised and synthesised. Screening of title and abstracts was conducted independently by two reviewers. Full papers were screened, data extracted and quality assessed by one reviewer and checked by a second. Data were synthesised narratively by intervention due to the heterogeneity of the studies. The inclusion criteria specified randomised controlled trials with CBT as an intervention in adults suffering from chronic headaches/migraines not associated with an underlying pathology/medication overuse. CBT was judged on the basis of authors describing the intervention as CBT. The diagnosis of the condition had to be clinician verified. Studies had to include a comparator and employ headache/migraine-specific outcomes such as patient-reported headache days. RESULTS: Out of 1126 screened titles and abstracts and 20 assessed full papers, 10 studies met the inclusion criteria of the review. Some studies combined CBT with another intervention, as well as employing varying numbers of comparators. CBT was statistically significantly more effective in improving some headaches-related outcomes in CBT comparisons with waiting lists (three studies), in combination with relaxation compared with relaxation only (three studies) or antidepressant medication (one study), with no statistically significant differences in three studies. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this review were mixed, with some studies providing evidence in support of the suggestion that people experiencing headaches or migraines can benefit from CBT, and that CBT can reduce the physical symptoms of headache and migraines. However, methodology inadequacies in the evidence base make it difficult to draw any meaningful conclusions or to make any recommendations.

The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of treatments for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a systematic review and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a life-limiting lung disease that generally affects people over 60 years old. The main symptoms are shortness of breath and cough, and as the disease progresses there is a considerable impact on day-to-day life. Few treatments are currently available. OBJECTIVES: To conduct a systematic review of clinical effectiveness and an analysis of cost-effectiveness of treatments for IPF based on an economic model informed by systematic reviews of cost-effectiveness and quality of life. DATA SOURCES: Eleven electronic bibliographic databases, including MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, and The Cochrane Library and the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination databases, were searched from database inception to July 2013. Reference lists of relevant publications were also checked and experts consulted. METHODS: Two reviewers independently screened references for the systematic reviews, extracted and checked data from the included studies and appraised their risk of bias. An advisory group was consulted about the choice of interventions until consensus was reached about eligibility. A narrative review with meta-analysis was undertaken, and a network meta-analysis (NMA) was performed. A decision-analytic Markov model was developed to estimate cost-effectiveness of pharmacological treatments for IPF. Parameter values were obtained from NMA and systematic reviews. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken. The model perspective is NHS and Personal Social Services, and discount rate is 3.5% for costs and health benefits. RESULTS: Fourteen studies were included in the review of clinical effectiveness, of which one evaluated azathioprine, three N-acetylcysteine (NAC) (alone or in combination), four pirfenidone, one BIBF 1120, one sildenafil, one thalidomide, two pulmonary rehabilitation, and one a disease management programme. Study quality was generally good, with a low risk of bias. The current evidence suggests that some treatments appear to be clinically effective. The model base-case results show increased survival for five pharmacological treatments, compared with best supportive care, at increased cost. General recommendations cannot be made of their cost-effectiveness owing to limitations in the evidence base. LIMITATIONS: Few direct comparisons of treatments were identified. An indirect comparison through a NMA was performed; however, caution is recommended in the interpretation of these results. In relation to the economic model, there is an assumption that pharmacological treatments have a constant effect on the relative rate of per cent predicted forced vital capacity decline. CONCLUSIONS: Few interventions have any statistically significant effect on IPF and a lack of studies on palliative care approaches was identified. Research is required into the effects of symptom control interventions, in particular pulmonary rehabilitation and thalidomide. Other research priorities include a well-conducted randomised controlled trial on inhaled NAC therapy and an updated evidence synthesis once the results of ongoing studies are reported. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42012002116. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of treatments for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: systematic review, network meta-analysis and health economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a life-limiting lung disease with considerable impact on patients and carers as the disease progresses. Currently few treatments are available. We aimed to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of available treatments for IPF. METHODS: Systematic reviews of clinical effectiveness, quality of life and cost effectiveness were undertaken. Eleven bibliographic databases were searched from inception to July 2013 and studies were assessed for eligibility against a set of pre-defined criteria. Two reviewers screened references, extracted data from included studies and appraised their quality. An advisory group was consulted about the choice of interventions. A narrative review was undertaken and where feasible fixed effect and random effects meta-analysis were undertaken including a network meta-analysis (NMA). A decision-analytic Markov model was developed to estimate cost-effectiveness of pharmacological treatments for IPF. Following best practice recommendations, the model perspective was of the national health service and personal social services, a discount rate of 3.5% for costs and health benefits was applied and outcomes were expressed as cost per quality adjusted life-year gained. Parameter values were obtained from the NMA and systematic reviews. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken. RESULTS: Fourteen studies were included in the review of clinical effectiveness, of which one evaluated azathioprine, three N-acetylcysteine [NAC] (alone or in combination), four pirfenidone, one nintedanib, one sildenafil, one thalidomide, two pulmonary rehabilitation, and one a disease management programme. Study quality was generally good. Evidence suggests that some effective treatments are available. In NMA only nintedanib and pirfenidone show statistically significant improvements. The model results show increased survival for five pharmacological treatments (NAC triple therapy, inhaled NAC, nintedanib, pirfenidone, and sildenafil) compared with best supportive care, at increased cost. Only inhaled NAC was cost-effective at current willingness to pay thresholds but it may not be clinically effective. CONCLUSIONS: Few interventions have any statistically significant effect and the cost-effectiveness of treatments is uncertain. A lack of studies on palliative care approaches was identified and there is a need for further research into pulmonary rehabilitation and thalidomide in particular. A well conducted RCT on inhaled NAC therapy should also be considered.

Psychosocial aspects of DNA testing for hereditary hemochromatosis in at-risk individuals: a systematic review.

AIM: To review the psychosocial benefits and harms of DNA testing for HFE-related hereditary hemochromatosis (HH) in at-risk individuals. BACKGROUND: HH is a common genetic disease in people of European descent. DNA-based predisposition testing is used for diagnosis or in the context of family testing, but there are concerns about potential psychosocial consequences. METHODS: Fifteen electronic databases (including Medline and Cochrane) were searched from inception to April 2007 to identify any quantitative or qualitative primary research that considered DNA testing of individuals considered at-risk of HH and reported psychosocial outcomes. Inclusion criteria, data extraction, and quality assessment were undertaken by standard methodology. RESULTS: Three observational studies met the inclusion criteria of the review; each had methodological limitations. On receipt of test results, anxiety levels fell or were unchanged; general health-related quality-of-life outcomes improved in some aspects, or were unchanged with respect to pretest result values. Outcomes were not reported separately for those referred for diagnosis and those with family history of HH. Results suggest that genetic testing for HH in at-risk individuals is accompanied by few negative psychosocial outcomes. CONCLUSION: The evidence on the psychosocial aspects of DNA testing for HH in at-risk individuals is limited. Further research might be required if other factors influencing the natural history of the disease phenotype are identified.