Cost-Effectiveness of Vedolizumab as a First-Line Advanced Therapy Versus Adalimumab Treatment Sequences for Ulcerative Colitis in Italy.

BACKGROUND: Today, there are many treatment options available for the management of ulcerative colitis, creating challenges in selecting the most efficacious and cost-effective treatment sequences. Treatments in the anti-tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα) therapeutic class, as well as vedolizumab, are widely used and endorsed as first-line options according to treatment guidelines. The aim of this study was to compare treatment sequences involving vedolizumab and the anti-TNFα treatment adalimumab in terms of cost-effectiveness in the treatment of moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis in Italy. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness model comparing treatment sequences within the Italian National Health Service in terms of costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) with a lifetime horizon was developed. The analysis focused on the relative positioning of vedolizumab and adalimumab, leveraging the results of the landmark head-to-head VARSITY clinical trial as key inputs. The robustness of the results was investigated through a range of sensitivity and scenario analyses. RESULTS: The strategy of vedolizumab as a first-line advanced therapy followed by adalimumab was associated with higher costs and health benefits compared with first-line adalimumab followed by vedolizumab. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was €16,146/QALY, which was found to be robust to changes to inputs associated with areas of high uncertainty. CONCLUSION: This economic evaluation estimated a 94% probability that vedolizumab as a first-line advanced therapy is cost-effective at a threshold of €33,004/QALY when compared with first-line adalimumab sequences. Using clinical trial evidence to inform the efficacy of second-line treatments estimated that the effectiveness of anti-TNFα treatments is not substantially reduced by vedolizumab exposure.

Early generation of a precursor CD8 T cell that can adapt to acute or chronic viral infection.

Virus specific PD-1+ TCF-1+ TOX+ stem-like CD8+ T cells are essential for maintaining T cell responses during chronic infection and are also critical for PD-1 directed immunotherapy. In this study we have used the mouse model of chronic LCMV infection to examine when these virus specific stem-like CD8+ T cells are generated during the course of chronic infection and what is the role of antigen in maintaining the stem-like program. We found that these stem-like CD8+ T cells are generated early (day 5) during chronic infection and that antigen is essential for maintaining their stem-like program. This early generation of stem-like CD8+ T cells suggested that the fate commitment to this cell population was agnostic to the eventual outcome of infection and the immune system prepares a priori for a potential chronic infection. Indeed, we found that an identical virus specific stem-cell like CD8+ T cell population was also generated during acute LCMV infection but these cells were lost once the virus was cleared. To determine the fate of these early PD-1+TCF-1+TOX+ stem-like CD8+ T cells that are generated during both acute and chronic LCMV infection we set up two reciprocal adoptive transfer experiments. In the first experiment we transferred day 5 stem-like CD8+ T cells from chronically infected into acutely infected mice and examined their differentiation after viral clearance. We found that these early stem-like CD8+ T cells downregulated canonical markers of the chronic stem-like CD8+ T cells and expressed markers (CD127 and CD62L) associated with central memory CD8+ T cells. In the second experiment, we transferred day 5 stem-like cells from acutely infected mice into chronically infected mice and found that these CD8+ T cells could function like resource cells after transfer into a chronic environment by generating effector CD8+ T cells in both lymphoid and non-lymphoid tissues while also maintaining the number of stem-like CD8+ T cells. These findings provide insight into the generation and maintenance of virus specific stem-like CD8+ T cells that play a critical role in chronic viral infection. In particular, our study highlights the early generation of stem-like CD8+ T cells and their ability to adapt to either an acute or chronic infection. These findings are of broad significance since these novel stem-like CD8+ T cells play an important role in not only viral infections but also in cancer and autoimmunity.

The Difference Method Approach for Sampling Order Constrained Parameters: An Improved Implementation and Important Limitations.

A health economic model may include a set of related inputs whose true values are uncertain, but that can be assumed to follow a logical order. Various approaches are available for performing probabilistic sensitivity analysis while preserving the order constraint, one such approach is known as the difference method. The difference method approach appears to have many of the required properties, has been endorsed by good practice guidelines, and is likely to prove a popular approach. However, the proposed implementation of the difference method approach is cumbersome, requiring numerical estimation, which might present a barrier to its adoption. Furthermore, it is unclear whether the method can always be applied to three or more model inputs and whether it is unbiased across all possible input values. This study has investigated these three issues for ordered inputs bounded between 0 and 1. An analytic solution is given that allows for more straightforward and compact implementation. The difference method approach cannot always be applied to a set of three or more model inputs, and this depends on the relative size of the variances of the logit-transformed Beta distributions fitted to each variable. The approach can also produce samples with biased means and variances under certain combinations of input means and variances. It is recommended that the difference method approach be used where appropriate; however, an understanding of its limitations is necessary to identify such cases.

Platinum-based chemotherapy attenuates the effector response of CD8 T cells to concomitant PD-1 blockade.

PURPOSE: Combination of chemotherapy (CT) with programmed cell death (PD)-1 blockade is a front-line treatment for lung cancer. However, it remains unknown whether and how CT affects the response of exhausted CD8 T cells to PD-1 blockade. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We used the well-established mouse model of T cell exhaustion with chronic lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) infection to assess the effect of CT (cisplatin+pemetrexed) on T cell response to PD-1 blockade, in the absence of the impact of CT on antigen release and presentation observed in tumor models. RESULTS: When concomitantly administered with PD-1 blockade, CT affected the differentiation path of LCMV-specific CD8 T cells from stem-like to transitory effector cells, thereby reducing their expansion and production of interferon (IFN)-γ. After combination treatment, these restrained effector responses resulted in impaired viral control, compared to PD-1 blockade alone. The sequential combination strategy, where PD-1 blockade followed CT, proved to be superior to the concomitant combination, preserving the proliferative response of exhausted CD8 T cells to PD-1 blockade. Our findings suggest that the stem-like CD8 T cells themselves are relatively unaffected by CT partly because they are quiescent and maintained by slow self-renewal at the steady state. However, upon the proliferative burst mediated by PD-1 blockade, the accelerated differentiation and self-renewal of stem-like cells may be curbed by concomitant CT, ultimately resulting in impaired overall CD8 T cell effector functions. CONCLUSIONS: In a translational context, we provide a proof-of-concept to consider optimizing the timing of chemo-immunotherapy strategies for improved CD8 T cell functions.

Characteristics and anatomic location of PD-1+TCF1+ stem-like CD8 T cells in chronic viral infection and cancer.

CD8 T cells play an essential role in antitumor immunity and chronic viral infections. Recent findings have delineated the differentiation pathway of CD8 T cells in accordance with the progenitor-progeny relationship of TCF1+ stem-like and Tim-3+TCF1- more differentiated T cells. Here, we investigated the characteristics of stem-like and differentiated CD8 T cells isolated from several murine tumor models and human lung cancer samples in terms of phenotypic and transcriptional features as well as their location compared to virus-specific CD8 T cells in the chronically lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV)-infected mice. We found that CD8 tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) in both murine and human tumors exhibited overall similar phenotypic and transcriptional characteristics compared to corresponding subsets in the spleen of chronically infected mice. Moreover, stem-like CD8 TILs exclusively responded and produced effector-like progeny CD8 T cells in vivo after antigenic restimulation, confirming their lineage relationship and the proliferative potential of stem-like CD8 TILs. Most importantly, similar to the preferential localization of PD-1+ stem-like CD8 T cells in T cell zones of the spleen during chronic LCMV infection, we found that the PD-1+ stem-like CD8 TILs in lung cancer samples are preferentially located not in the tumor parenchyma but in tertiary lymphoid structures (TLSs). The stem-like CD8 T cells are present in TLSs located within and at the periphery of the tumor, as well as in TLSs closely adjacent to the tumor parenchyma. These findings suggest that TLSs provide a protective niche to support the quiescence and maintenance of stem-like CD8 T cells in the tumor.

Longitudinal Analysis of the Phenotype, Transcriptional Profile, and Anatomic Location of Memory CD8 T Cell Subsets after Acute Viral Infection.

Increased demand for novel, highly effective vaccination strategies necessitates a better understanding of long-lived memory CD8 T cell differentiation. To achieve this understanding, we used the mouse model of acute lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) infection. We reexamined classical memory CD8 T cell subsets and performed in-depth, longitudinal analysis of their phenotype, transcriptional programming, and anatomic location within the spleen. All analyses were performed at multiple time points from 8 days to 1 year postinfection. Memory subsets are conventionally defined by their expression of KLRG1 and IL-7Rα, as follows: KLRG1+IL-7Rα- terminal effectors (TEs) and KLRG1-IL-7Rα+ memory precursors (MPs). But we also characterized a third KLRG1+IL-7Rα+ subset which we refer to as KLRG1+ MPs. In these analyses, we defined a comprehensive memory phenotype that is associated with higher levels of CD28 expression. We also demonstrated that MPs, KLRG1+ MPs, and TEs have distinct localization programs within the spleen. We found that MPs became preferentially enriched in the white pulp as early as 1 to 2 weeks postinfection, and their predominance in the white pulp was maintained throughout the course of a year. On the other hand, KLRG1+ MPs and TEs localized to the red pulp just as early, and they consistently localized to the red pulp thereafter. These findings indicate that location may be crucial for memory formation and that white pulp-derived signals may contribute to long-term memory survival. Achieving robust memory responses following vaccination may require more deliberate consideration of which memory phenotypes are induced, as well as where they traffic, as these factors could impact their longevity. IMPORTANCE CD8 T cells play a critical role in viral immunity and it is important to understand how memory cells are formed and what processes lead to their long-term maintenance. Here, we use a mouse model of acute infection to perform an in-depth, longitudinal analysis of memory CD8 T cell differentiation, examining the phenotype and location of memory cells out to 1 year postinfection.

PD-1 combination therapy with IL-2 modifies CD8+ T cell exhaustion program.

Combination therapy with PD-1 blockade and IL-2 is highly effective during chronic lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus infection1. Here we examine the underlying basis for this synergy. We show that PD-1 + IL-2 combination therapy, in contrast to PD-1 monotherapy, substantially changes the differentiation program of the PD-1+TCF1+ stem-like CD8+ T cells and results in the generation of transcriptionally and epigenetically distinct effector CD8+ T cells that resemble highly functional effector CD8+ T cells seen after an acute viral infection. The generation of these qualitatively superior CD8+ T cells that mediate viral control underlies the synergy between PD-1 and IL-2. Our results show that the PD-1+TCF1+ stem-like CD8+ T cells, also referred to as precursors of exhausted CD8+ T cells, are not fate-locked into the exhaustion program and their differentiation trajectory can be changed by IL-2 signals. These virus-specific effector CD8+ T cells emerging from the stem-like CD8+ T cells after combination therapy expressed increased levels of the high-affinity IL-2 trimeric (CD25-CD122-CD132) receptor. This was not seen after PD-1 blockade alone. Finally, we show that CD25 engagement with IL-2 has an important role in the observed synergy between IL-2 cytokine and PD-1 blockade. Either blocking CD25 with an antibody or using a mutated version of IL-2 that does not bind to CD25 but still binds to CD122 and CD132 almost completely abrogated the synergistic effects observed after PD-1 + IL-2 combination therapy. There is considerable interest in PD-1 + IL-2 combination therapy for patients with cancer2,3, and our fundamental studies defining the underlying mechanisms of how IL-2 synergizes with PD-1 blockade should inform these human translational studies.

Choice of oral anticoagulant prescribed by general practices in Wales: Application of Dirichlet regression and linked data.

AIMS: There has been sustained growth in the prescribing of direct oral anticoagulants (OACs) in primary care in the UK. Given the different indications, properties and prices of OACs, variation between prescribers is expected; however, a high level of variation may be evidence of inappropriate or suboptimal prescribing. This study examined the variation in the relative use of OACs in primary care in Wales. METHODS: Data on total defined daily doses of all community-dispensed OACs in 2019 were linked at the GP practice level with disease registers, patient demographic data and GP and patient numbers. The relative use of each OAC, as a fraction of all OACs prescribed, was analysed using Dirichlet regression to quantify the association between prescribing patterns and practice and area-level characteristics. RESULTS: Across 417 GP practices, the mean (range) in the relative prescribing of warfarin was 37% (6%-64%), apixaban was 32% (2%-65%), rivaroxaban 23% (0%-66%), dabigatran 3% (0%-23%) and edoxaban 6% (0%-59%). Statistical modelling provided strong evidence that prescribing patterns are associated with a GP practice's health board and also their nearest major hospital. Compared to the null model, a model including health board resulted in a 15% fall in Akaike information criterion, increasing to 20% with the addition of nearest major hospital and 27% including further covariates. CONCLUSION: Systematic variation in OAC prescribing, by health board and based on nearest hospital, indicates that factors other than patient clinical characteristics and preferences may be influencing prescribing decisions.

Surgical microdiscectomy versus transforaminal epidural steroid injection in patients with sciatica secondary to herniated lumbar disc (NERVES): a phase 3, multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: The optimal invasive treatment for sciatica secondary to herniated lumbar disc remains controversial, with a paucity of evidence for use of non-surgical treatments such as transforaminal epidural steroid injection (TFESI) over surgical microdiscectomy. We aimed to investigate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of these options for management of radicular pain secondary to herniated lumbar disc. METHODS: We did a pragmatic, multicentre, phase 3, open-label, randomised controlled trial at 11 spinal units across the UK. Eligible patients were aged 16-65 years, had MRI-confirmed non-emergency sciatica secondary to herniated lumbar disc with symptom duration between 6 weeks and 12 months, and had leg pain that was not responsive to non-invasive management. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either TFESI or surgical microdiscectomy by an online randomisation system that was stratified by centre with random permuted blocks. The primary outcome was Oswestry Disability Questionnaire (ODQ) score at 18 weeks. All randomly assigned participants who completed a valid ODQ at baseline and at 18 weeks were included in the analysis. Safety analysis included all treated participants. Cost-effectiveness was estimated from the EuroQol-5D-5L, Hospital Episode Statistics, medication usage, and self-reported resource-use data. This trial was registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN04820368, and EudraCT, number 2014-002751-25. FINDINGS: Between March 6, 2015, and Dec 21, 2017, 163 (15%) of 1055 screened patients were enrolled, with 80 participants (49%) randomly assigned to the TFESI group and 83 participants (51%) to the surgery group. At week 18, ODQ scores were 30·02 (SD 24·38) for 63 assessed patients in the TFESI group and 22·30 (19·83) for 61 assessed patients in the surgery group. Mean improvement was 24·52 points (18·89) for the TFESI group and 26·74 points (21·35) for the surgery group, with an estimated treatment difference of -4·25 (95% CI -11·09 to 2·59; p=0·22). There were four serious adverse events in four participants associated with surgery, and none with TFESI. Compared with TFESI, surgery had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £38 737 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, and a 0·17 probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20 000 per quality-adjusted life-year. INTERPRETATION: For patients with sciatica secondary to herniated lumbar disc, with symptom duration of up to 12 months, TFESI should be considered as a first invasive treatment option. Surgery is unlikely to be a cost-effective alternative to TFESI. FUNDING: Health Technology Assessment programme of the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), UK.

Microdiscectomy compared with transforaminal epidural steroid injection for persistent radicular pain caused by prolapsed intervertebral disc: the NERVES RCT.

BACKGROUND: Sciatica is a common condition reported to affect > 3% of the UK population at any time and is most often caused by a prolapsed intervertebral disc. Currently, there is no uniformly adopted treatment strategy. Invasive treatments, such as surgery (i.e. microdiscectomy) and transforaminal epidural steroid injection, are often reserved for failed conservative treatment. OBJECTIVE: To compare the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of microdiscectomy with transforaminal epidural steroid injection for the management of radicular pain secondary to lumbar prolapsed intervertebral disc for non-emergency presentation of sciatica of < 12 months' duration. INTERVENTIONS: Patients were randomised to either (1) microdiscectomy or (2) transforaminal epidural steroid injection. DESIGN: A pragmatic, multicentre, randomised prospective trial comparing microdiscectomy with transforaminal epidural steroid injection for sciatica due to prolapsed intervertebral disc with < 1 year symptom duration. SETTING: NHS services providing secondary spinal surgical care within the UK. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 163 participants (aged 16-65 years) were recruited from 11 UK NHS outpatient clinics. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was participant-completed Oswestry Disability Questionnaire score at 18 weeks post randomisation. Secondary outcomes were visual analogue scores for leg pain and back pain; modified Roland-Morris score (for sciatica), Core Outcome Measures Index score and participant satisfaction at 12-weekly intervals. Cost-effectiveness and quality of life were assessed using the EuroQol-5 Dimensions, five-level version; Hospital Episode Statistics data; medication usage; and self-reported cost data at 12-weekly intervals. Adverse event data were collected. The economic outcome was incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained from the perspective of the NHS in England. RESULTS: Eighty-three participants were allocated to transforaminal epidural steroid injection and 80 participants were allocated to microdiscectomy, using an online randomisation system. At week 18, Oswestry Disability Questionnaire scores had decreased, relative to baseline, by 26.7 points in the microdiscectomy group and by 24.5 points in the transforaminal epidural steroid injection. The difference between the treatments was not statistically significant (estimated treatment effect -4.25 points, 95% confidence interval -11.09 to 2.59 points). Nor were there significant differences between treatments in any of the secondary outcomes: Oswestry Disability Questionnaire scores, visual analogue scores for leg pain and back pain, modified Roland-Morris score and Core Outcome Measures Index score up to 54 weeks. There were four (3.8%) serious adverse events in the microdiscectomy group, including one nerve palsy (foot drop), and none in the transforaminal epidural steroid injection group. Compared with transforaminal epidural steroid injection, microdiscectomy had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £38,737 per quality-adjusted life-year gained and a probability of 0.17 of being cost-effective at a willingness to pay threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. LIMITATIONS: Primary outcome data was invalid or incomplete for 24% of participants. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated robustness to assumptions made regarding missing data. Eighteen per cent of participants in the transforaminal epidural steroid injection group subsequently received microdiscectomy prior to their primary outcome assessment. CONCLUSIONS: To the best of our knowledge, the NErve Root Block VErsus Surgery trial is the first trial to evaluate the comparative clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of microdiscectomy and transforaminal epidural steroid injection. No statistically significant difference was found between the two treatments for the primary outcome. It is unlikely that microdiscectomy is cost-effective compared with transforaminal epidural steroid injection at a threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year for sciatica secondary to prolapsed intervertebral disc. FUTURE WORK: These results will lead to further studies in the streamlining and earlier management of discogenic sciatica. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN04820368 and EudraCT 2014-002751-25. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 24. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

WHAT IS THE PROBLEM?: Sciatica or pain related to nerve irritation travelling down the leg is common in young working adults and most likely to be caused by a 'slipped' (prolapsed) disc. Although the majority of cases get better on their own and within 4­6 weeks, a significant group of patients struggle with disabling symptoms sometimes beyond 1 year. Consequently, patients struggle to maintain their home and working lives. Many treatments are available for sciatica, but simpler treatments (e.g. pain tablets, physiotherapy and changing one's lifestyle) are often not very effective and patients have often tried all of them by the time they are seen in hospital to have tests, such as scans, done. Surgery to remove part of the disc is recommended in cases where the pain is accompanied by severe weakness in one or both legs, or where doctors think that nerves may be damaged because patients have bladder, bowel and sexual functioning difficulties (i.e. red flag symptoms). Surgery works well in alleviation of referred leg pain and also to relieve pressure on a physically compressed nerve that may be showing clinical sign of injury/weakness. An alternative to surgery is to inject a mixture of anaesthetic and steroid close to the site of the disc injury and nerve, but at the moment we do not know whether or not these injections work in the long term. They are cheaper and less invasive, with fewer risks than surgery, such as from anaesthetic or infection. WHAT DID OUR STUDY INVESTIGATE?: This study compared the usefulness of surgery with injections for patients who have had sciatica for < 1 year and who have tried simple remedies but are still in pain. Patients were allocated to have either surgery or the injection. Symptoms (e.g. pain) were assessed after 18 weeks. WHAT DID WE FIND?: We found that there was no significant difference between surgery and injection at the primary end point. Surgery was not significantly different from injection in terms of clinical outcome and was not cost-effective compared with injection. OUR CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION: Given the cost of surgery and the risks to patients, we suggest that further studies should be carried out to explore whether or not all patients with sciatica due to a slipped disc should be considered suitable for an injection, unless there is a good reason not to.

Group 1 innate lymphoid-cell-derived interferon-γ maintains anti-viral vigilance in the mucosal epithelium.

The oropharyngeal mucosa serves as a perpetual pathogen entry point and a critical site for viral replication and spread. Here, we demonstrate that type 1 innate lymphoid cells (ILC1s) were the major immune force providing early protection during acute oral mucosal viral infection. Using intravital microscopy, we show that ILC1s populated and patrolled the uninfected labial mucosa. ILC1s produced interferon-γ (IFN-γ) in the absence of infection, leading to the upregulation of key antiviral genes, which were downregulated in uninfected animals upon genetic ablation of ILC1s or antibody-based neutralization of IFN-γ. Thus, tonic IFN-γ production generates increased oral mucosal viral resistance even before infection. Our results demonstrate barrier-tissue protection through tissue surveillance in the absence of rearranged-antigen receptors and the induction of an antiviral state during homeostasis. This aspect of ILC1 biology raises the possibility that these cells do not share true functional redundancy with other tissue-resident lymphocytes.

Combining Model-Based Clinical Trial Simulation, Pharmacoeconomics, and Value of Information to Optimize Trial Design.

The Bayesian decision-analytic approach to trial design uses prior distributions for treatment effects, updated with likelihoods for proposed trial data. Prior distributions for treatment effects based on previous trial results risks sample selection bias and difficulties when a proposed trial differs in terms of patient characteristics, medication adherence, or treatment doses and regimens. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the utility of using pharmacometric-based clinical trial simulation (CTS) to generate prior distributions for use in Bayesian decision-theoretic trial design. The methods consisted of four principal stages: a CTS to predict the distribution of treatment response for a range of trial designs; Bayesian updating for a proposed sample size; a pharmacoeconomic model to represent the perspective of a reimbursement authority in which price is contingent on trial outcome; and a model of the pharmaceutical company return on investment linking drug prices to sales revenue. We used a case study of febuxostat versus allopurinol for the treatment of hyperuricemia in patients with gout. Trial design scenarios studied included alternative treatment doses, inclusion criteria, input uncertainty, and sample size. Optimal trial sample sizes varied depending on the uncertainty of model inputs, trial inclusion criteria, and treatment doses. This interdisciplinary framework for trial design and sample size calculation may have value in supporting decisions during later phases of drug development and in identifying costly sources of uncertainty, and thus inform future research and development strategies.

Linked Pharmacometric-Pharmacoeconomic Modeling and Simulation in Clinical Drug Development.

Market access and pricing of pharmaceuticals are increasingly contingent on the ability to demonstrate comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. As such, it is widely recognized that predictions of the economic potential of drug candidates in development could inform decisions across the product life cycle. This may be challenging when safety and efficacy profiles in terms of the relevant clinical outcomes are unknown or highly uncertain early in product development. Linking pharmacometrics and pharmacoeconomics, such that outputs from pharmacometric models serve as inputs to pharmacoeconomic models, may provide a framework for extrapolating from early-phase studies to predict economic outcomes and characterize decision uncertainty. This article reviews the published studies that have implemented this methodology and used simulation to inform drug development decisions and/or to optimize the use of drug treatments. Some of the key practical issues involved in linking pharmacometrics and pharmacoeconomics, including the choice of final outcome measures, methods of incorporating evidence on comparator treatments, approaches to handling multiple intermediate end points, approaches to quantifying uncertainty, and issues of model validation are also discussed. Finally, we have considered the potential barriers that may have limited the adoption of this methodology and suggest that closer alignment between the disciplines of clinical pharmacology, pharmacometrics, and pharmacoeconomics, may help to realize the potential benefits associated with linked pharmacometric-pharmacoeconomic modeling and simulation.

CXCR6 regulates localization of tissue-resident memory CD8 T cells to the airways.

Resident memory T cells (TRM cells) are an important first-line defense against respiratory pathogens, but the unique contributions of lung TRM cell populations to protective immunity and the factors that govern their localization to different compartments of the lung are not well understood. Here, we show that airway and interstitial TRM cells have distinct effector functions and that CXCR6 controls the partitioning of TRM cells within the lung by recruiting CD8 TRM cells to the airways. The absence of CXCR6 significantly decreases airway CD8 TRM cells due to altered trafficking of CXCR6-/- cells within the lung, and not decreased survival in the airways. CXCL16, the ligand for CXCR6, is localized primarily at the respiratory epithelium, and mice lacking CXCL16 also had decreased CD8 TRM cells in the airways. Finally, blocking CXCL16 inhibited the steady-state maintenance of airway TRM cells. Thus, the CXCR6/CXCL16 signaling axis controls the localization of TRM cells to different compartments of the lung and maintains airway TRM cells.

Integration of Pharmacometrics and Pharmacoeconomics to Quantify the Value of Improved Forgiveness to Nonadherence: A Case Study of Novel Xanthine Oxidase Inhibitors for Gout.

Linked pharmacometric and pharmacoeconomic models provide a structured approach for assessing the value of candidate drugs in development. The aim of this study was to assess the utility of such an approach for identifying the properties of xanthine oxidase inhibitors (XOi) providing improved forgiveness to nonadherence and estimate the maximum reimbursement price. The pharmacometric and pharmacoeconomic models were used to simulate the time course of serum uric acid concentrations and estimate quality-adjusted life years and costs for the XOi febuxostat and a range of hypothetical analogues. Compounds with reduced clearance or increased potency were more forgiving to missed doses, however, even following relatively large changes in these properties the predicted maximum reimbursement prices represented an increase of only 19% above febuxostat 80 mg. Linked pharmacometric and pharmacoeconomic modeling methods have the potential to inform early drug development by providing an indication of pricing options that may permit reimbursement.

Lymph node conduits transport virions for rapid T cell activation.

Despite intense interest in antiviral T cell priming, the routes by which virions move in lymph nodes (LNs) are imperfectly understood. Current models fail to explain how virus-infected cells rapidly appear within the LN interior after viral infection. To better understand virion trafficking in the LN, we determined the locations of virions and infected cells after administration to mice of vaccinia virus or Zika virus. Notably, many rapidly infected cells in the LN interior were adjacent to LN conduits. Through the use of confocal and electron microscopy, we clearly visualized virions within conduits. Functionally, CD8+ T cells rapidly and preferentially associated with vaccinia virus-infected cells in the LN paracortex, which led to T cell activation in the LN interior. These results reveal that it is possible for even large virions to flow through LN conduits and infect dendritic cells within the T cell zone to prime CD8+ T cells.

Modeling the Potential Impact of Changing Access Rates to Specialist Treatment for Alcohol Dependence for Local Authorities in England: The Specialist Treatment for Alcohol Model (STreAM).

OBJECTIVE: We modeled the impact of changing Specialist Treatment Access Rates to different treatment pathways on the future prevalence of alcohol dependence, treatment outcomes, service capacity, costs, and mortality. METHOD: Local Authority numbers and the prevalence of people "potentially in need of assessment for and treatment in specialist services for alcohol dependence" (PINASTFAD) are estimated by mild, moderate, severe, and complex needs. Administrative data were used to estimate the Specialist Treatment Access Rate per PINASTFAD person and classify 22 different treatment pathways. Other model inputs include natural remission, relapse after treatment, service costs, and mortality rates. "What-if" analyses assess changes to Specialist Treatment Access Rates and treatment pathways. Model outputs include the numbers and prevalence of people who are PINASTFAD, numbers treated by 22 pathways, outcomes (successful completion with abstinence, successfully moderated nonproblematic drinking, re-treatment within 6 months, dropout, transfer, custody), mortality rates, capacity requirements (numbers in contact with community services or staying in residential or inpatient places), total treatment costs, and general health care savings. Five scenarios illustrate functionality: (a) no change, (b) achieve access rates at the 70th percentile nationally, (c) increase access by 25%, (d) increase access to Scotland rate, and (e) reduce access by 25%. RESULTS: At baseline, 14,581 people are PINASTFAD (2.43% of adults) and the Specialist Treatment Access Rate is 10.84%. The 5-year impact of scenarios on PINASTFAD numbers (vs. no change) are (B) reduced by 191 (-1.3%), (C) reduced by 477 (-3.3%), (D) reduced by almost 2,800 (-19.2%), and (E) increased by 533 (+3.6%). The relative impact is similar for other outputs. CONCLUSIONS: Decision makers can estimate the potential impact of changing Specialist Treatment Access Rates for alcohol dependence.

Global Development of Anticancer Therapies for Rare Cancers, Pediatric Cancers, and Molecular Subtypes of Common Cancers.

Advances in genetic sequencing and other diagnostic technologies have enabled the use of precision medicine in clinical cancer care, as well as the development of novel therapies that are targeted to specific molecular drivers of cancer. Developing these new agents and making them accessible to patients requires global clinical studies and regulatory review and approval by different national regulatory agencies. Whereas these global trials present challenges for drug developers who conduct them and regulatory agencies who oversee them, they also raise practical issues about patients with low-frequency cancers who need these therapies. A lack of uniform standards in both regulatory approval for marketing and reimbursement for approved agents across countries may make the newly developed agent either unavailable or inaccessible to patients in certain countries or regions, even if patients from those countries or regions participated in the clinical research that established the safety and efficacy of the agent. In an effort to further understand and address this need, we convened an international workshop in 2017 in North Bethesda, MD. After presentations of the individual regulatory pathways for marketing approval and reimbursement for individual nations, participants discussed expedited pathways and specific challenges for uncommon cancers. As a matter of justice, agents being developed for rare cancers, pediatric cancers, or uncommon molecular subsets of common cancers need a pragmatic, science-based regulatory policy framework to clearly specify the type and quantity of evidence needed to demonstrate efficacy from these trials and evidence to support accessibility.

Impact of Non-Adherence and Flare Resolution on the Cost-Effectiveness of Treatments for Gout: Application of a Linked Pharmacometric/Pharmacoeconomic Model.

BACKGROUND: Dual urate-lowering therapy (ULT) with lesinurad in combination with either allopurinol or febuxostat is an option for patients with gout unsuccessfully treated on either monotherapy. Treatment failure is often a result of poor medication adherence. Imperfect adherence in clinical trials may lead to biased estimates of treatment effect and confound the results of cost-effectiveness analyses. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the impact of varying medication adherence on the cost effectiveness of lesinurad dual therapy and estimate the value-based price of lesinurad at which the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is equal to £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). METHODS: Treatment effect was simulated using published pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic models and scenarios representing adherence in clinical trials, routine practice, and perfect use. The subsequent cost and health impacts, over the lifetime of a patient cohort, were estimated using a bespoke pharmacoeconomic model. RESULTS: The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratios comparing lesinurad dual ULT with monotherapy ranged from £39,184 to £78,350/QALY gained using allopurinol and £31,901 to £124,212/QALY gained using febuxostat, depending on the assumed medication adherence. Results assuming perfect medication adherence imply a per-quarter value-based price of lesinurad of £45.14 when used in dual ULT compared with allopurinol alone and £57.75 compared with febuxostat alone, falling to £25.41 and £3.49, respectively, in simulations of worsening medication adherence. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated value-based prices of lesinurad only exceeded that which has been proposed in the United Kingdom when assuming both perfect drug adherence and the eradication of gout flares in sustained treatment responders.