Association of baseline and longitudinal changes in insulin-like growth factor-binding protein-7 with the risk of incident heart failure: Data from the PREVEND study.

AIM: Senescence is a major risk factor for heart failure (HF), and insulin-like growth factor-binding protein-7 (IGFBP7) has been identified as an important senescence-inducing factor. The aim of this study was to examine the value of baseline and repeat IGFBP7 measurements in predicting future HF among community-dwelling Dutch adults from the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease (PREVEND) study. METHODS AND RESULTS: Individuals without prevalent HF who attended PREVEND visits 2 and 4 median of 5.1 years apart (25th-75th percentile, 4.9-5.2) with measurements of IGFBP7 were included. We used Cox proportional hazards models to investigate the association between IGFBP7 and HF incidence. A total of 6125 participants attending visit 2 (mean ± standard deviation [SD] age 53.1 ± 12.2 years; 3151 [51.4%] men) were followed for a median of 8.4 (7.8-8.9) years, and 194 participants (3.2%) developed incident HF. Median baseline IGFBP7 concentration was 87.0 (75.1-97.3) ng/ml, and baseline IGFBP7 levels were significantly associated with risk for incident HF (HF risk factors adjusted hazard ratio [HR] per 1 SD change in log-transformed IGFBP7: 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.46). Baseline IGFBP7 was also significantly associated with incident HF in individuals with N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide <125 ng/L. Among 3879 participants attending both visits 2 and 4 (mean ± SD age 57.5 ± 11.3 years; 1952 [50.3%] men), 93 individuals developed HF (after visit 4) during a median follow-up of 3.2 (2.8-3.9) years. Median increase in IGFBP7 concentration between visits was 0.68 (-7.09 to 8.36) ng/ml, and changes in IGFBP7 levels were significantly associated with risk for incident HF (HF risk factors adjusted HR per 1 SD change in log-transformed IGFBP7: 1.68, 95% CI 1.19-2.36). CONCLUSIONS: Both baseline as well as repeat IGFBP7 measurements provide information about the risk of developing HF.

Proteomic biomarkers related to obesity in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction and their associations with outcome.

OBJECTIVE: Heart failure (HF) pathophysiology in patients with obesity may be distinct. To study these features, we identified obesity-related biomarkers from 4210 circulating proteins in patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and examined associations of these proteins with HF prognosis and biological mechanisms. METHODS: In 373 patients with trimonthly blood sampling during a median follow-up of 2.1 (25th-75th percentile: 1.1-2.6) years, we applied an aptamer-based multiplex approach measuring 4210 proteins in baseline samples and the last two samples before study end. Associations between obesity (BMI > 30 kg/m2) and baseline protein levels were analyzed. Subsequently, associations of serially measured obesity-related proteins with biological mechanisms and the primary endpoint (PEP; composite of cardiovascular mortality, HF hospitalization, left ventricular assist device implantation, and heart transplantation) were examined. RESULTS: Obesity was identified in 26% (96/373) of patients. A total of 30% (112/373) experienced a PEP (with obesity: 26% [25/96] vs. without obesity: 31% [87/277]). A total of 141/4210 proteins were linked to obesity, reflecting mechanisms of neuron projection development, cell adhesion, and muscle cell migration. A total of 50/141 proteins were associated with the PEP, of which 12 proteins related to atherosclerosis or hypertrophy provided prognostic information beyond clinical characteristics, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and high-sensitivity troponin T. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with HFrEF and obesity show distinct proteomic profiles compared to patients with HFrEF without obesity. Obesity-related proteins are independently associated with HF outcome. These proteins carry potential to improve management of obesity-related HF and could be leads for future research.

Associations of relative fat mass and BMI with all-cause mortality: Confounding effect of muscle mass.

OBJECTIVE: The study objective was to examine associations of relative fat mass (RFM) and BMI with all-cause mortality in the Dutch general population and to investigate whether additional adjustment for muscle mass strengthened these associations. METHODS: A total of 8433 community-dwelling adults from the PREVEND general population cohort (1997-1998) were included. Linear regression models were used to examine associations of RFM and BMI with 24-h urinary creatinine excretion, a marker of total muscle mass. Cox regression models were used to examine associations of RFM and BMI with all-cause mortality. RESULTS: The mean age of the cohort was 49.8 years (range: 28.8-75.7 years), and 49.9% (n = 4209) were women. In age- and sex-adjusted models, both RFM and BMI were associated with total muscle mass (24-h urinary creatinine excretion), and these associations were stronger with BMI (standardized beta [Sß]RFM : 0.29; 95% CI: 0.27-0.31 vs. SßBMI : 0.38; 95% CI: 0.36-0.40; pdifference < 0.001). During a median follow-up period of 18.4 years, 1640 deaths (19.4%) occurred. In age- and sex-adjusted models, RFM was significantly associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio per 1-SD [HRRFM ]: 1.16; 95% CI: 1.09-1.24), whereas BMI was not (HRBMI : 1.04; 95% CI: 0.99-1.10). After additional adjustment for muscle mass, associations of both RFM and BMI with all-cause mortality increased in magnitude (HRRFM : 1.24; 95% CI: 1.16-1.32 and HRBMI : 1.12; 95% CI: 1.06-1.19). Results were broadly similar in multivariable adjusted models. CONCLUSIONS: In the general population, a higher RFM was significantly associated with mortality risk, whereas a higher BMI was not. Adjusting for total muscle mass increased the strength of associations of both RFM and BMI with all-cause mortality.

Relative fat mass and prediction of incident atrial fibrillation, heart failure and coronary artery disease in the general population.

BACKGROUND: Relative fat mass (RFM) is an emerging marker of obesity that estimates body fat percentage using a sex-specific formula containing height and waist circumference (WC). We studied the association of RFM with incident atrial fibrillation (AF), heart failure (HF), and coronary artery disease (CAD) and explored RFM cutoffs for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prediction. METHODS: We studied 95,003 participants (age 45 ± 13 years, 59% women) without prevalent AF, HF or CAD from the population-based Lifelines study. Outcomes were ascertained using electrocardiography and self-reported questionnaire data. We used logistic regression to study the association of RFM with individual outcomes and a composite outcome (incident AF, HF, and/or CAD). Multivariable models were adjusted for components of the SCORE risk model (age, sex, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol, and smoking). Optimal cutoffs were determined using the Youden index. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 3.8 (3.0-4.6) years, 224 (0.2%) participants developed AF, 1003 (1.1%) HF and 657 (0.7%) CAD. After multivariable adjustment, RFM was significantly associated with all outcomes (standardised OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.18-1.34 for the composite outcome). Optimal RFM cutoffs ( ≥26 for men, ≥38 for women) were lower than previously proposed RFM cutoffs ( ≥30 for men, ≥40 for women). In general, overall discriminative ability of RFM and its cutoffs was at least similar (in women) or better (in men) compared to BMI and WC. Since RFM was substantially correlated with age, we additionally determined age-specific cutoffs, which ranged from 23 to 27 in men and 33 to 43 in women. CONCLUSIONS: RFM is associated with incident AF, HF, and CAD and may be used as a simple and intuitive marker of obesity and cardiovascular risk in the general population. This study provides potential RFM cutoffs for CVD prediction that may be used by future studies or preventive strategies targeting obesity and cardiovascular risk.

Trajectories of renal biomarkers and new-onset heart failure in the general population: Findings from the PREVEND study.

AIMS: Renal dysfunction is one of the most critical risk factors for developing heart failure (HF). However, the association between repeated measures of renal function and incident HF remains unclear. Therefore, this study investigated the longitudinal trajectories of urinary albumin excretion (UAE) and serum creatinine and their association with new-onset HF and all-cause mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using group-based trajectory analysis, we estimated trajectories of UAE and serum creatinine in 6881 participants from the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease (PREVEND) study and their association with new-onset HF and all-cause death during the 11-years of follow-up. Most participants had stable low UAE or serum creatinine. Participants with persistently higher UAE or serum creatinine were older, more often men, and more often had comorbidities, such as diabetes, a previous myocardial infarction or dyslipidaemia. Participants with persistently high UAE had a higher risk of new-onset HF or all-cause mortality, whereas stable serum creatinine trajectories showed a linear association for new-onset HF and no association with all-cause mortality. CONCLUSION: Our population-based study identified different but often stable longitudinal patterns of UAE and serum creatinine. Patients with persistently worse renal function, such as higher UAE or serum creatinine, were at a higher risk of HF or mortality.

Sex-based differences in cardiovascular proteomic profiles and their associations with adverse outcomes in patients with chronic heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Studies focusing on sex differences in circulating proteins in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) are scarce. Insight into sex-specific cardiovascular protein profiles and their associations with the risk of adverse outcomes may contribute to a better understanding of the pathophysiological processes involved in HFrEF. Moreover, it could provide a basis for the use of circulating protein measurements for prognostication in women and men, wherein the most relevant protein measurements are applied in each of the sexes. METHODS: In 382 patients with HFrEF, we performed tri-monthly blood sampling (median follow-up: 25 [13-31] months). We selected all baseline samples and two samples closest to the primary endpoint (PEP: composite of cardiovascular death, heart transplantation, left ventricular assist device implantation, and HF hospitalization) or censoring. We then applied an aptamer-based multiplex proteomic assay identifying 1105 proteins previously associated with cardiovascular disease. We used linear regression models and gene-enrichment analysis to study sex-based differences in baseline levels. We used time-dependent Cox models to study differences in the prognostic value of serially measured proteins. All models were adjusted for the MAGGIC HF mortality risk score and p-values for multiple testing. RESULTS: In 104 women and 278 men (mean age 62 and 64 years, respectively) cumulative PEP incidence at 30 months was 25% and 35%, respectively. At baseline, 55 (5%) out of the 1105 proteins were significantly different between women and men. The female protein profile was most strongly associated with extracellular matrix organization, while the male profile was dominated by regulation of cell death. The association of endothelin-1 (Pinteraction < 0.001) and somatostatin (Pinteraction = 0.040) with the PEP was modified by sex, independent of clinical characteristics. Endothelin-1 was more strongly associated with the PEP in men (HR 2.62 [95%CI, 1.98, 3.46], p < 0.001) compared to women (1.14 [1.01, 1.29], p = 0.036). Somatostatin was positively associated with the PEP in men (1.23 [1.10, 1.38], p < 0.001), but inversely associated in women (0.33 [0.12, 0.93], p = 0.036). CONCLUSION: Baseline cardiovascular protein levels differ between women and men. However, the predictive value of repeatedly measured circulating proteins does not seem to differ except for endothelin-1 and somatostatin.

Urinary albumin excretion and cancer risk: the PREVEND cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is believed to be associated with an increased risk for cancer, especially urinary tract cancer. However, previous studies predominantly focused on the association of decreased estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) with cancer. In this study, we investigated the association of albuminuria with cancer incidence, adjusted for eGFR. METHODS: We included 8490 subjects in the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease (PREVEND) observational study. Urinary albumin excretion (UAE) was measured in two 24-hour urine specimens at baseline. Primary outcomes were the incidence of overall and urinary tract cancer. Secondary outcomes were the incidence of other site-specific cancers, and mortality due to overall, urinary tract, and other site-specific cancers. RESULTS: Median baseline UAE was 9.4 (IQR, 6.3-17.8) mg/24 h. During a median follow-up of 17.7 years, 1341 subjects developed cancer (of which 177 were urinary tract cancers). After multivariable adjustment including eGFR, every doubling of UAE was associated with a 6% (hazard ratios (HR), 1.06, 95% confidence intervals (CI), 1.02-1.10), and 14% (HR, 1.14, 95% CI, 1.04-1.24) higher risk of overall and urinary tract cancer incidence, respectively. Except for lung and hematological cancer, no associations were found between UAE and the incidence of other site-specific cancer. Doubling of UAE was also associated with a higher risk of mortality due to overall and lung cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Higher albuminuria is associated with a higher incidence of overall, urinary tract, lung, and hematological cancer, and with a higher risk of mortality due to overall and lung cancers, independent of baseline eGFR.

Association of Initial and Longitudinal Changes in C-reactive Protein With the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease, Cancer, and Mortality.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the value of serial C-reactive protein (CRP) measurements in predicting the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and mortality. METHODS: The analysis was performed using data from two prospective, population-based observational cohorts: the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-Stage Disease (PREVEND) study and the Framingham Heart Study (FHS). A total of 9253 participants had CRP measurements available at two examinations (PREVEND: 1997-1998 and 2001-2002; FHS Offspring cohort: 1995-1998 and 1998-2001). All CRP measurements were natural log-transformed before analyses. Cardiovascular disease included fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular, cerebrovascular and peripheral vascular events, and heart failure. Cancer included all malignancies except nonmelanoma skin cancers. RESULTS: The mean age of the study population at baseline was 52.4±12.1 years and 51.2% (n=4733) were women. Advanced age, female sex, smoking, body mass index, and total cholesterol were associated with greater increases in CRP levels over time (Pall<.001 in the multivariable model). Baseline CRP, as well as increase in CRP over time (ΔCRP), were associated with incident CVD (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.29 per 1-SD increase; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.29 to 1.47, and HR per 1-SD increase: 1.19; 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.29 respectively). Similar findings were observed for incident cancer (baseline CRP, HR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.26; ΔCRP, HR: 1.08; 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.15) and mortality (baseline CRP, HR: 1.29; 95% CI: 1.21 to 1.37; ΔCRP, HR: 1.10; 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.16). CONCLUSION: Initial as well as subsequent increases in CRP levels predict future CVD, cancer, and mortality in the general population.

Diffuse Myocardial Fibrosis on Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Imaging Is Related to Galectin-3 and Predicts Outcome in Heart Failure.

AIMS: Ongoing adverse remodeling is a hallmark of heart failure (HF), which might be reflected by either focal or diffuse myocardial fibrosis. Therefore, in (pre)clinical settings, we used immunohistochemistry or cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) to investigate the association of (focal or diffuse) fibrosis with cardiac biomarkers and adverse events in HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: In C57Bl/6J mice, we determined the presence and extent of myocardial fibrosis 6 weeks post-myocardial infarction (MI). Furthermore, we studied 159 outpatient HF patients who underwent CMR, and determined focal and diffuse fibrosis by late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) and post-contrast T1 time of the non-LGE myocardium, respectively. HF patients were categorized based on the presence of LGE, and by the median post-contrast T1 time. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were used to determine the association of fibrosis with HF hospitalization and all-cause mortality. LGE was detected in 61 (38%) patients. Cardiac biomarker levels were comparable between LGE-positive and LGE-negative patients. LGE-positive patients with a short T1 time had elevated levels of both NT-proBNP and galectin-3 (1611 vs. 453 ng/L, p = 0.026 and 20 vs. 15 µg/L, p = 0.004, respectively). This was not observed in LGE-negative patients. Furthermore, a short T1 time in LGE-positive patients was associated with a higher risk of adverse events (log-rank p = 0.01). CONCLUSION: This study implies that cardiac biomarkers reflect active remodeling of the non-infarcted myocardium of patients with focal myocardial scarring. Diffuse fibrosis, in contrast to focal scarring, might have a higher prognostic value regarding adverse outcomes in HF patients.

Associations of relative fat mass, a new index of adiposity, with type-2 diabetes in the general population.

BACKGROUND: Relative fat mass (RFM) is a novel sex-specific anthropometric equation (based on height and waist measurements) to estimate whole-body fat percentage. OBJECTIVE: To examine associations of RFM with incident type-2 diabetes (T2D), and to benchmark its performance against body-mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR). METHODS: This prospective longitudinal study included data from three Dutch community-based cohorts free of baseline diabetes. First, we examined data from the PREVEND cohort (median age and follow-up duration: 48.0 and 12.5 years, respectively) using Cox regression models. Validation was performed in the Lifelines (median age and follow-up duration: 45.5 and 3.8 years, respectively) and Rotterdam (median age and follow-up duration: 68.0 and 13.9 years, respectively) cohorts. RESULTS: Among 7961 PREVEND participants, 522 (6.6%) developed T2D. In a multivariable model, all adiposity indices were significantly associated with incident T2D (Pall<0.001). While 1 SD increase in BMI, WC and WHR were associated with 68%, 77% and 61% increased risk of developing T2D [Hazard ratio (HR)BMI: 1.68 (95%CI: 1.57-1.80), HRWC: 1.77 (95% CI: 1.63-1.92) and HRWHR: 1.61 (95%CI: 1.48-1.75)], an equivalent increase in RFM was associated with 119% increased risk [HR: 2.19 (95%CI: 1.96-2.44)]. RFM was associated with incident T2D across all age groups, with the largest effect size in the youngest (<40 years) age category [HR: 2.90 (95%CI: 2.15-3.92)]. Results were broadly similar in Lifelines (n = 93,870) and Rotterdam (n = 5279) cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: RFM is strongly associated with new-onset T2D and displays the potential to be used in the general practice setting to estimate the risk of future diabetes.

Clonal haematopoiesis of indeterminate potential: associations with heart failure incidence, clinical parameters and biomarkers.

AIM: We aimed to analyse the association of clonal haematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) with incident heart failure (HF) in a European population cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: From the prospective Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease (PREVEND) cohort, we included all 374 participants with incident HF and selected 1:1 age- and sex-matched control subjects. Peripheral blood samples of 705 individuals were successfully analysed by error-corrected next generation sequencing for acquired mutations at a variant allele frequency ≥2% in 27 CHIP driver genes. The median age of the study population was 65 years (interquartile range 58-70) and 35.6% were female. CHIP mutations positively correlated with age, smoking, hypertension and cardiovascular biomarkers including N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and mid-regional pro-A-type natriuretic peptide, but the frequency of CHIP was comparable in individuals with incident HF and in control participants (18.4% vs. 17.3%; p = 0.69). In multivariable Cox regression models, CHIP was not significantly associated with incident HF (hazard ratio [HR] 1.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.93-1.65; p = 0.144). This association, however, was modified by age (p for CHIP-age interaction = 0.002). Among people younger than 65 years, CHIP mutations were more frequently detected in the case cohort compared to the control cohort (14.2% vs. 5.8%; p = 0.009), and were significantly associated with new-onset HF (HR 2.07, 95% CI 1.30-3.29; p = 0.002). CONCLUSION: Clonal haematopoiesis of indeterminate potential correlates with HF risk factors and biomarkers, and is associated with incident HF in subjects <65 years of age.

Sex differences in associations of comorbidities with incident cardiovascular disease: focus on absolute risk.

Aim: To examine sex differences in associations of obesity, type-2 diabetes, hypertension, and atrial fibrillation (AF) with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), focusing on absolute risk measures. Methods and results: We included a total of 7994 individuals (mean age 49.1 years; 51.2% women) without prior CVD from the PREVEND (Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease) cohort with a median follow-up of 12.5 years. Using Poisson regression, we calculated the increase in absolute as well as relative CVD risk associated with a comorbidity using incidence rate differences (IRD = IRcomorbidity-IRno-comorbidity) and incidence rate ratios (IRR = IRcomorbidity/IRno-comorbidity), respectively. Sex differences were presented as women-to-men differences (WMD = IRDwomen-IRDmen) and women-to-men ratios (WMR = IRRwomen/IRRmen). Absolute CVD risk was lower in women than in men (IRwomen: 6.73 vs. IRmen: 14.58 per 1000 person-years). While increase in absolute CVD risk associated with prevalent hypertension was lower in women than in men [WMD: -6.12, 95% confidence interval: (-9.84 to -2.40), P = 0.001], increase in absolute CVD risk associated with prevalent obesity [WMD: -4.25 (-9.11 to 0.61), P = 0.087], type-2 diabetes [WMD: -1.04 (-14.36 to 12.29), P = 0.879] and AF [WMD: 18.39 (-39.65 to 76.43), P = 0.535] did not significantly differ between the sexes. Using relative risk measures, prevalent hypertension [WMR: 1.49%, 95% confidence interval: (1.12-1.99), P = 0.006], type-2 diabetes [WMR: 1.73 (1.09-2.73), P = 0.019], and AF [WMR: 2.53 (1.12-5.70), P = 0.025] were all associated with higher CVD risk in women than in men. Conclusion: Increase in absolute risk of developing CVD is higher in hypertensive men than in hypertensive women, but no substantial sex-related differences were observed among individuals with obesity, type-2 diabetes and AF. On a relative risk scale, comorbidities, in general, confer a higher CVD risk in women than in men.

Association of Cardiometabolic Disease With Cancer in the Community.

Background: Obesity and cardiometabolic dysfunction have been associated with cancer risk and severity. Underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Objectives: The aim of this study was to examine associations of obesity and related cardiometabolic traits with incident cancer. Methods: FHS (Framingham Heart Study) and PREVEND (Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-Stage Disease) study participants without prevalent cancer were studied, examining associations of obesity, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, visceral adipose tissue (VAT) and subcutaneous adipose tissue depots, and C-reactive protein (CRP) with future cancer in Cox models. Results: Among 20,667 participants (mean age 50 years, 53% women), 2,619 cancer events were observed over a median follow-up duration of 15 years. Obesity was associated with increased risk for future gastrointestinal (HR: 1.30; 95% CI: 1.05-1.60), gynecologic (HR: 1.62; 95% CI: 1.08-2.45), and breast (HR: 1.32; 95% CI: 1.05-1.66) cancer and lower risk for lung cancer (HR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.44-0.87). Similarly, waist circumference was associated with increased risk for overall, gastrointestinal, and gynecologic but not lung cancer. VAT but not subcutaneous adipose tissue was associated with risk for overall cancer (HR: 1.22; 95% CI: 1.05-1.43), lung cancer (HR: 1.92; 95% CI: 1.01-3.66), and melanoma (HR: 1.56; 95% CI: 1.02-2.38) independent of BMI. Last, higher CRP levels were associated with higher risk for overall, colorectal, and lung cancer (P < 0.05 for all). Conclusions: Obesity and abdominal adiposity are associated with future risk for specific cancers (eg, gastrointestinal, gynecologic). Although obesity was associated with lower risk for lung cancer, greater VAT and CRP were associated with higher lung cancer risk after adjusting for BMI.

Relative fat mass, a new index of adiposity, is strongly associated with incident heart failure: data from PREVEND.

Body-mass index (BMI), waist circumference, and waist-hip ratio are commonly used anthropometric indices of adiposity. However, over the past 10 years, several new anthropometric indices were developed, that more accurately correlated with body fat distribution and total fat mass. They include relative fat mass (RFM), body-roundness index (BRI), weight-adjusted-waist index and body-shape index (BSI). In the current study, we included 8295 adults from the PREVEND (Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-Stage Disease) observational cohort (the Netherlands), and sought to examine associations of novel as well as established adiposity indices with incident heart failure (HF). The mean age of study population was 50 ± 13 years, and approximately 50% (n = 4134) were women. Over a 11 year period, 363 HF events occurred, resulting in an overall incidence rate of 3.88 per 1000 person-years. We found that all indices of adiposity (except BSI) were significantly associated with incident HF in the total population (P < 0.001); these associations were not modified by sex (P interaction > 0.1). Amongst adiposity indices, the strongest association was observed with RFM [hazard ratio (HR) 1.67 per 1 SD increase; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.37-2.04]. This trend persisted across multiple age groups and BMI categories, and across HF subtypes [HR: 1.76, 95% CI 1.26-2.45 for HF with preserved ejection fraction; HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.25-2.06 for HF with reduced ejection fraction]. We also found that all adiposity indices (except BSI) improved the fit of a clinical HF model; improvements were, however, most evident after adding RFM and BRI (reduction in Akaike information criteria: 24.4 and 26.5 respectively). In conclusion, we report that amongst multiple anthropometric indicators of adiposity, RFM displayed the strongest association with HF risk in Dutch community dwellers. Future studies should examine the value of including RFM in HF risk prediction models.

High selenium levels associate with reduced risk of mortality and new-onset heart failure: data from PREVEND.

AIM: To elucidate the relationship between serum selenium levels and the risk of mortality and new-onset heart failure (HF) in the general adult population. METHODS AND RESULTS: Selenium was measured in a Dutch cohort and a retrospective analysis of prospectively assessed data was performed. Main outcome measures were all-cause mortality and incidence of new-onset HF separately, and combined as a composite endpoint. Serum selenium was measured in 5973 subjects and mean selenium concentration was 84.6 (±19.5) µg/L. Mean age was 53.6 (±12.1) years and 3103 subjects (52%) were female. Median follow-up was 8.4 years. Selenium levels associated positively with female sex, higher total cholesterol and glucose concentrations, and associated negatively with incidence of anaemia, iron deficiency, current smoking, increased C-reactive protein levels, and higher body mass index. Univariate analysis on all subjects showed no association of continuous selenium concentrations, per 10 µg/L increase, with the composite endpoint (hazard ratio [HR] 0.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.87-1.06, p = 0.407). However, significant interaction with smoking status was observed. In non-smoking subjects (n = 4288), continuous selenium concentrations were independently associated with reduced mortality risk (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.79-0.96, p = 0.005), lower risk of new-onset HF (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.69-0.96, p = 0.017), as well as reduced risk of the composite endpoint (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.79-0.94, p = 0.001). In smoking subjects, no associations were found. CONCLUSION: Serum selenium was independently associated with multiple indicators of the metabolic syndrome. In addition, high selenium levels were independently associated with reduced mortality and new-onset HF in non-smokers. Well-powered interventional studies are necessary to evaluate the potential benefit of repleting selenium, especially in non-smoking subjects.

Atrial fibrillation detected at screening is not a benign condition: outcomes in screen-detected versus clinically detected atrial fibrillation. Results from the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease (PREVEND) study.

AIMS: It is unknown whether screen-detected atrial fibrillation (AF) carries cardiovascular risks similar to clinically detected AF. We aimed to compare clinical outcomes between individuals with screen-detected and clinically detected incident AF. METHODS: We studied 8265 participants (age 49 ± 13 years, 50% women) without prevalent AF from the community-based Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease (PREVEND) study. By design of the PREVEND study, 70% of participants had a urinary albumin concentration >10 mg/L. Participants underwent 12-lead ECG screening at baseline and every 3 years. AF was considered screen-detected when first diagnosed during a study visit and clinically detected when first diagnosed during a hospital visit. We analysed data from the baseline visit (1997-1998) up to the third follow-up visit (2008). We used Cox regression with screen-detected and clinically detected AF as time-varying covariates to study the association of screen-detected and clinically detected AF with all-cause mortality, incident heart failure (HF) and vascular events. RESULTS: During a follow-up of 9.8 ± 2.3 years, 265 participants (3.2%) developed incident AF, of whom 60 (23%) had screen-detected AF. The majority of baseline characteristics were comparable between individuals with screen-detected and clinically detected AF. Unadjusted, both screen-detected and clinically detected AF were strongly associated with mortality, incident HF, and vascular events. After multivariable adjustment, screen-detected and clinically detected AF remained significantly associated with mortality (HR 2.21 (95% CI 1.09 to 4.47) vs 2.95 (2.18 to 4.00), p for difference=0.447) and incident HF (4.90 (2.28 to 10.57) vs 3.98 (2.49 to 6.34), p for difference=0.635). After adjustment, screen-detected AF was not significantly associated with vascular events, whereas clinically detected AF was (1.12 (0.46 to 2.71) vs 1.92 (1.21 to 3.06), p for difference=0.283). CONCLUSION: Screen-detected incident AF was associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes, especially all-cause mortality and incident HF. The risk of outcomes was not significantly different between screen-detected AF and clinically detected AF.

Established Tumour Biomarkers Predict Cardiovascular Events and Mortality in the General Population.

Introduction: Several lines of evidence reveal that cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer share similar common pathological milieus. The prevalence of the two diseases is growing as the population ages and the burden of shared risk factors increases. In this respect, we hypothesise that tumour biomarkers can be potential predictors of CVD outcomes in the general population. Methods: We measured six tumour biomarkers (AFP, CA125, CA15-3, CA19-9, CEA and CYFRA 21-1) and determined their predictive value for CVD in the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease (PREVEND) study. A total of 8,592 subjects were enrolled in the study. Results: The levels of CEA significantly predicted CV morbidity and mortality, with hazard ratios (HRs) of HR 1.28 (95% CI 1.08-1.53), respectively. Two biomarkers (CA15-3 and CEA) showed statistical significance in predicting all-cause mortality, with HRs 1.58 (95% CI 1.18-2.12) and HR 1.60 (95% CI 1.30-1.96), when adjusted for shared risk factors and prevalent CVD. Furthermore, biomarkers seem to be sex specific. CYFRA 21-1 presented as an independent predictor of CV morbidity and mortality in female, but not in male gender, with HR 1.82 (95% CI 1.40-2.35). When it comes to all-cause mortality, both CYFRA and CEA show statistical significance in male gender, with HR 1.64 (95% CI 1.28-3.12) and HR 1.55 (95% CI 1.18-2.02), while only CEA showed statistical significance in female gender, with HR 1.64 (95% CI 1.20-2.24). Lastly, CA15-3 and CEA strongly predicted CV mortality with HR 3.01 (95% CI 1.70-5.32) and HR 1.82 (95% CI 1.30-2.56). On another hand, CA 15-3 also presented as an independent predictor of heart failure (HF) with HR 1.67 (95% CI 1.15-2.42). Conclusion: Several tumour biomarkers demonstrated independent prognostic value for CV events and all-cause mortality in a large cohort from the general population. These findings support the notion that CVD and cancer are associated with similar pathological milieus.

Left atrial volume and left ventricular mass indices in heart failure with preserved and reduced ejection fraction.

AIMS: Two key echocardiographic parameters that are currently used to diagnose heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) are left atrial volume index (LAVi) and left ventricular mass index (LVMi). We investigated whether patients' characteristics, biomarkers, and co-morbidities are associated with these parameters and whether the relationships differ between patients with HFpEF or HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). METHODS: We consecutively enrolled 831 outpatients with typical signs and symptoms of HF and elevated N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels and categorized patients based upon left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF): LVEF < 40% (HFrEF), LVEF between 40% and 50% (HF with mid-range ejection fraction), and LVEF ≥ 50% (HFpEF). The study includes consecutively enrolled HF patients from an HF outpatient clinic at a tertiary medical centre in the Netherlands. All patients underwent baseline characterization, laboratory measurements, and echocardiography. RESULTS: Four hundred sixty-nine patients had HFrEF, 189 HF with mid-range ejection fraction, and 173 HFpEF. The patients with HFrEF were rather male [HFrEF: 323 (69%); HFpEF: 80 (46%); P < 0.001], and the age was comparable (HFrEF 67 ± 13; HFpEF 70 ± 14; P = 0.069). In HFpEF, more patients had hypertension [190 (40.5%); 114 (65.9%); P < 0.001], higher body mass indices (27 ± 8; 30 ± 7; P < 0.001), and atrial fibrillation [194 (41.4); 86 (49.7); P = 0.029]. The correlation analyses showed that in HFrEF patients, LAVi was significantly associated with age (ß 0.293; P < 0.001), male gender (ß 0.104; P = 0.042), body mass index (ß -0160; P = 0.002), diastolic blood pressure (ß -0.136; P < 0.001), New York Heart Association (ß 0.174; P = 0.001), atrial fibrillation (ß 0.381; P < 0.001), galectin 3 (ß 0.230; P < 0.001), NT-proBNP (ß 0.183; P < 0.001), estimated glomerular filtration rate (ß -0.205; P < 0.001), LVEF (ß -0.173; P = 0.001), and LVMi (ß 0.337; P < 0.001). In HFpEF patients, only age (ß 0.326; P < 0.001), atrial fibrillation (ß 0.386; P < 0.001), NT-proBNP (ß 0.176; P = 0.036), and LVMi (ß 0.213; P = 0.013) were associated with LAVi. CONCLUSIONS: Although LVMi and LAVi are hallmark parameters to diagnose HFpEF, they only correlate with a few characteristics of HF and mainly with atrial fibrillation. In contrast, in HFrEF patients, LAVi relates strongly to several other HF parameters. These findings underscore the complexity in visualizing the pathophysiology of HFpEF and question the relation between cardiac structural remodeling and the impact of co-morbidities.