Evaluating COVID-19 Risk to Essential Workers by Occupational Group: A Case Study in Massachusetts.

Occupational exposure to SARS-CoV-2 varies by profession, but "essential workers" are often considered in aggregate in COVID-19 models. This aggregation complicates efforts to understand risks to specific types of workers or industries and target interventions, specifically towards non-healthcare workers. We used census tract-resolution American Community Survey data to develop novel essential worker categories among the occupations designated as COVID-19 Essential Services in Massachusetts. Census tract-resolution COVID-19 cases and deaths were provided by the Massachusetts Department of Public Health. We evaluated the association between essential worker categories and cases and deaths over two phases of the pandemic from March 2020 to February 2021 using adjusted mixed-effects negative binomial regression, controlling for other sociodemographic risk factors. We observed elevated COVID-19 case incidence in census tracts in the highest tertile of workers in construction/transportation/buildings maintenance (Phase 1: IRR 1.32 [95% CI 1.22, 1.42]; Phase 2: IRR: 1.19 [1.13, 1.25]), production (Phase 1: IRR: 1.23 [1.15, 1.33]; Phase 2: 1.18 [1.12, 1.24]), and public-facing sales and services occupations (Phase 1: IRR: 1.14 [1.07, 1.21]; Phase 2: IRR: 1.10 [1.06, 1.15]). We found reduced case incidence associated with greater percentage of essential workers able to work from home (Phase 1: IRR: 0.85 [0.78, 0.94]; Phase 2: IRR: 0.83 [0.77, 0.88]). Similar trends exist in the associations between essential worker categories and deaths, though attenuated. Estimating industry-specific risk for essential workers is important in targeting interventions for COVID-19 and other diseases and our categories provide a reproducible and straightforward way to support such efforts.

Critical windows of susceptibility for the effects of prenatal exposure to heat and heat variability on gestational growth.

BACKGROUND: Studies have shown that prenatal heat exposure may impact fetal growth, but few studies have examined the critical windows of susceptibility. As extreme heat events and within season temperature variability is expected to increase in frequency, it is important to understand how this may impact gestational growth. OBJECTIVES: We investigated associations between various measures of weekly prenatal heat exposure (mean and standard deviation (SD) of temperature and heat index (HI), derived using temperature in °C and dew point) and term birthweight or odds of being born small for gestational age (SGA) to identify critical windows of susceptibility. METHODS: We analyzed data from mother-child dyads (n = 4442) in the Boston-based Children's HealthWatch cohort. Birthweights were collected from survey data and electronic health records. Daily temperature and HI values were obtained from 800 m gridded spatial climate datasets aggregated by the PRISM Climate Group. Distributed lag-nonlinear models were used to assess the effect of the four weekly heat metrics on measures of gestational growth (birthweight, SGA, and birthweight z-scores). Analyses were stratified by child sex and maternal homelessness status during pregnancy. RESULTS: HI variability was significantly associated with decreased term birthweight during gestational weeks 10-29 and with SGA for weeks 9-26. Cumulative effects for these time periods were -287.4 g (95% CI: -474.1 g, -100.8 g for birthweight and 4.7 (95% CI: 1.6, 14.1) for SGA. Temperature variability was also significantly associated with decreased birthweight between weeks 15 and 26. The effects for mean heat measures on term birthweight and SGA were not significant for any gestational week. Stratification by sex revealed a significant effect on term birthweight in females between weeks 23-28 and in males between weeks 9-26. Strongest effects of HI variability on term birthweight were found in children of mothers who experienced homelessness during pregnancy. Weekly HI variability was the heat metric most strongly associated with measures of gestational growth. The effects observed were largest in males and those who experienced homelessness during pregnancy. DISCUSSION: Given the impact of heat variability on birthweight and risk of SGA, it is important for future heat warnings to incorporate measure of heat index and temperature variability.

Time-varying associations between COVID-19 case incidence and community-level sociodemographic, occupational, environmental, and mobility risk factors in Massachusetts.

BACKGROUND: Associations between community-level risk factors and COVID-19 incidence have been used to identify vulnerable subpopulations and target interventions, but the variability of these associations over time remains largely unknown. We evaluated variability in the associations between community-level predictors and COVID-19 case incidence in 351 cities and towns in Massachusetts from March to October 2020. METHODS: Using publicly available sociodemographic, occupational, environmental, and mobility datasets, we developed mixed-effect, adjusted Poisson regression models to depict associations between these variables and town-level COVID-19 case incidence data across five distinct time periods from March to October 2020. We examined town-level demographic variables, including population proportions by race, ethnicity, and age, as well as factors related to occupation, housing density, economic vulnerability, air pollution (PM2.5), and institutional facilities. We calculated incidence rate ratios (IRR) associated with these predictors and compared these values across the multiple time periods to assess variability in the observed associations over time. RESULTS: Associations between key predictor variables and town-level incidence varied across the five time periods. We observed reductions over time in the association with percentage of Black residents (IRR = 1.12 [95%CI: 1.12-1.13]) in early spring, IRR = 1.01 [95%CI: 1.00-1.01] in early fall) and COVID-19 incidence. The association with number of long-term care facility beds per capita also decreased over time (IRR = 1.28 [95%CI: 1.26-1.31] in spring, IRR = 1.07 [95%CI: 1.05-1.09] in fall). Controlling for other factors, towns with higher percentages of essential workers experienced elevated incidences of COVID-19 throughout the pandemic (e.g., IRR = 1.30 [95%CI: 1.27-1.33] in spring, IRR = 1.20 [95%CI: 1.17-1.22] in fall). Towns with higher proportions of Latinx residents also had sustained elevated incidence over time (IRR = 1.19 [95%CI: 1.18-1.21] in spring, IRR = 1.14 [95%CI: 1.13-1.15] in fall). CONCLUSIONS: Town-level COVID-19 risk factors varied with time in this study. In Massachusetts, racial (but not ethnic) disparities in COVID-19 incidence may have decreased across the first 8 months of the pandemic, perhaps indicating greater success in risk mitigation in selected communities. Our approach can be used to evaluate effectiveness of public health interventions and target specific mitigation efforts on the community level.

Spatial analysis of crime incidence and adolescent physical activity.

OBJECTIVES: Adolescents do not achieve recommended levels of physical activity. Crime is believed to be a barrier to physical activity among youth, but findings are inconsistent. This study compares the spatial distribution of crime incidences and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) among adolescents in Massachusetts between 2011 and 2012, and examines the correlation between crime and MVPA. METHODS: Eighty adolescents provided objective physical activity (accelerometer) and location (Global Positioning Systems) data. Crime report data were obtained from the city police department. Data were mapped using geographic information systems, and crime and MVPA densities were calculated using kernel density estimations. Spearman's correlation tested for associations between crime and MVPA. RESULTS: Overall, 1694 reported crimes and 16,702min of MVPA were included in analyses. A strong positive correlation was present between crime and adolescent MVPA (ρ=0.72, p<0.0001). Crime remained positively associated with MVPA in locations falling within the lowest quartile (ρ=0.43, p<0.0001) and highest quartile (ρ=0.32, p<0.0001) of crime density. CONCLUSIONS: This study found a strong positive association between crime and adolescent MVPA, despite research suggesting the opposite relationship. This counterintuitive finding may be explained by the logic of a common destination: neighborhood spaces which are desirable destinations and promote physical activity may likewise attract crime.

Missing Race and Ethnicity Data among COVID-19 Cases in Massachusetts.

Infectious disease surveillance frequently lacks complete information on race and ethnicity, making it difficult to identify health inequities. Greater awareness of this issue has occurred due to the COVID-19 pandemic, during which inequities in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were reported but with evidence of substantial missing demographic details. Although the problem of missing race and ethnicity data in COVID-19 cases has been well documented, neither its spatiotemporal variation nor its particular drivers have been characterized. Using individual-level data on confirmed COVID-19 cases in Massachusetts from March 2020 to February 2021, we show how missing race and ethnicity data: (1) varied over time, appearing to increase sharply during two different periods of rapid case growth; (2) differed substantially between towns, indicating a nonrandom distribution; and (3) was associated significantly with several individual- and town-level characteristics in a mixed-effects regression model, suggesting a combination of personal and infrastructural drivers of missing data that persisted despite state and federal data-collection mandates. We discuss how a variety of factors may contribute to persistent missing data but could potentially be mitigated in future contexts.

Influence of geospatial resolution on sociodemographic predictors of COVID-19 in Massachusetts.

PURPOSE: When studying health risks across a large geographic region such as a state or province, researchers often assume that finer-resolution data on health outcomes and risk factors will improve inferences by avoiding ecological bias and other issues associated with geographic aggregation. However, coarser-resolution data (e.g., at the town or county-level) are more commonly publicly available and packaged for easier access, allowing for rapid analyses. The advantages and limitations of using finer-resolution data, which may improve precision at the cost of time spent gaining access and processing data, have not been considered in detail to date. METHODS: We systematically examine the implications of conducting town-level mixed-effect regression analyses versus census-tract-level analyses to study sociodemographic predictors of COVID-19 in Massachusetts. In a series of negative binomial regressions, we vary the spatial resolution of the outcome, the resolution of variable selection, and the resolution of the random effect to allow for more direct comparison across models. RESULTS: We find stability in some estimates across scenarios, changes in magnitude, direction, and significance in others, and tighter confidence intervals on the census-tract level. Conclusions regarding sociodemographic predictors are robust when regions of high concentration remain consistent across town and census-tract resolutions. CONCLUSIONS: Inferences about high-risk populations may be misleading if derived from town- or county-resolution data, especially for covariates that capture small subgroups (e.g., small racial minority populations) or are geographically concentrated or skewed (e.g., % college students). Our analysis can help inform more rapid and efficient use of public health data by identifying when finer-resolution data are truly most informative, or when coarser-resolution data may be misleading.

Sensitivity of modeled residential fine particulate matter exposure to select building and source characteristics: A case study using public data in Boston, MA.

Many techniques for estimating exposure to airborne contaminants do not account for building characteristics that can magnify contaminant contributions from indoor and outdoor sources. Building characteristics that influence exposure can be challenging to obtain at scale, but some may be incorporated into exposure assessments using public datasets. We present a methodology for using public datasets to generate housing models for a test cohort, and examined sensitivity of predicted fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposures to selected building and source characteristics. We used addresses of a cohort of children with asthma and public tax assessor's data to guide selection of floorplans of US residences from a public database. This in turn guided generation of coupled multi-zone models (CONTAM and EnergyPlus) that estimated indoor PM2.5 exposure profiles. To examine sensitivity to model parameters, we varied building floors and floorplan, heating, ventilating and air-conditioning (HVAC) type, room or floor-level model resolution, and indoor source strength and schedule (for hypothesized gas stove cooking and tobacco smoking). Occupant time-activity and ambient pollutant levels were held constant. Our address matching methodology identified two multi-family house templates and one single-family house template that had similar characteristics to 60 % of test addresses. Exposure to infiltrated ambient PM2.5 was similar across selected building characteristics, HVAC types, and model resolutions (holding all else equal). By comparison, exposures to indoor-sourced PM2.5 were higher in the two multi-family residences than the single family residence (e.g., for cooking PM2.5 exposure, by 26 % and 47 % respectively) and were sensitive to HVAC type and model resolution. We derived the influence of building characteristics and HVAC type on PM2.5 exposure indoors using public data sources and coupled multi-zone models. With the important inclusion of individualized resident behavior data, similar housing modeling can be used to incorporate exposure variability in health studies of the indoor residential environment.

Community predictors of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Massachusetts: Evaluating changes over time using geospatially refined data.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for targeted local interventions given substantial heterogeneity within cities and counties. Publicly available case data are typically aggregated to the city or county level to protect patient privacy, but more granular data are necessary to identify and act upon community-level risk factors that can change over time. METHODS: Individual COVID-19 case and mortality data from Massachusetts were geocoded to residential addresses and aggregated into two time periods: "Phase 1" (March-June 2020) and "Phase 2" (September 2020 to February 2021). Institutional cases associated with long-term care facilities, prisons, or homeless shelters were identified using address data and modeled separately. Census tract sociodemographic and occupational predictors were drawn from the 2015-2019 American Community Survey. We used mixed-effects negative binomial regression to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs), accounting for town-level spatial autocorrelation. RESULTS: Case incidence was elevated in census tracts with higher proportions of Black and Latinx residents, with larger associations in Phase 1 than Phase 2. Case incidence associated with proportion of essential workers was similarly elevated in both Phases. Mortality IRRs had differing patterns from case IRRs, decreasing less substantially between Phases for Black and Latinx populations and increasing between Phases for proportion of essential workers. Mortality models excluding institutional cases yielded stronger associations for age, race/ethnicity, and essential worker status. CONCLUSIONS: Geocoded home address data can allow for nuanced analyses of community disease patterns, identification of high-risk subgroups, and exclusion of institutional cases to comprehensively reflect community risk.

In-home environmental exposures predicted from geospatial characteristics of the built environment and electronic health records of children with asthma.

PURPOSE: Children may be exposed to numerous in-home environmental exposures (IHEE) that trigger asthma exacerbations. Spatially linking social and environmental exposures to electronic health records (EHR) can aid exposure assessment, epidemiology, and clinical treatment, but EHR data on exposures are missing for many children with asthma. To address the issue, we predicted presence of indoor asthma trigger allergens, and estimated effects of their key geospatial predictors. METHODS: Our study samples were comprised of children with asthma who provided self-reported IHEE data in EHR at a safety-net hospital in New England during 2004-2015. We used an ensemble machine learning algorithm and 86 multilevel features (e.g., individual, housing, neighborhood) to predict presence of cockroaches, rodents (mice or rats), mold, and bedroom carpeting/rugs in homes. We reduced dimensionality via elastic net regression and estimated effects by the G-computation causal inference method. RESULTS: Our models reasonably predicted presence of cockroaches (area under receiver operating curves [AUC] = 0.65), rodents (AUC = 0.64), and bedroom carpeting/rugs (AUC = 0.64), but not mold (AUC = 0.54). In models adjusted for confounders, higher average household sizes in census tracts were associated with more reports of pests (cockroaches and rodents). Tax-exempt parcels were associated with more reports of cockroaches in homes. Living in a White-segregated neighborhood was linked with lower reported rodent presence, and mixed residential/commercial housing and newer buildings were associated with more reports of bedroom carpeting/rugs in bedrooms. CONCLUSIONS: We innovatively applied a machine learning and causal inference mixture methodology to detail IHEE among children with asthma using EHR and geospatial data, which could have wide applicability and utility.

Postnatal exposure to PM2.5 and weight trajectories in early childhood.

BACKGROUND: Inconsistent evidence has assessed the impact of air pollution exposure on children's growth trajectories. We investigated the role of 90-day average postnatal fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposures by estimating the magnitude of effects at different ages, and the change in child weight trajectory by categories of exposure. METHODS: We obtained weight values from electronic health records at each hospital visit (males = 1859, females = 1601) from birth to 6 years old children recruited into the Boston-based Children's HealthWatch cohort (2009-2014). We applied mixed models, adjusting for individual and maternal confounders using (1) varying-coefficient models allowing for smooth non-linear interaction between age and PM2.5, (2) factor-smooth interaction between age and PM2.5 quartiles. Additionally, we stratified by sex and low birthweight (LBW) status (≤2500 g). RESULTS: Using varying-coefficient models, we found that PM2.5 significantly modified the association between age and weight in males, with a positive association in children younger than 3 years and a negative association afterwards. In boys, for each 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 we found a 2.6% increase (95% confidence interval = 0.8, 4.6) in weight at 1 year of age and a -0.6% (95% confidence interval = -3.9, 2.9) at 5 years. We found similar but smaller changes in females, and no differences comparing growth trajectories across quartiles of PM2.5. Most of the effects were in LBW children and null for normal birthweight children. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that medium-term postnatal PM2.5 may modify weight trajectories nonlinearly in young children, and that LBW babies are more susceptible than normal-weight infants.

The immigrant birthweight paradox in an urban cohort: Role of immigrant enclaves and ambient air pollution.

BACKGROUND: Foreign-born Black and Latina women on average have higher birthweight infants than their US-born counterparts, despite generally worse socioeconomic indicators and prenatal care access, i.e., "immigrant birthweight paradox" (IBP). Residence in immigrant enclaves and associated social-cultural and economic benefits may be drivers of IBP. Yet, enclaves have been found to have higher air pollution, a risk factor for lower birthweight. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the association of immigrant enclaves and children's birthweight accounting for prenatal ambient air pollution exposure. METHODS: In the Boston-based Children's HealthWatch cohort of mother-child dyads, we obtained birthweight-for-gestational-age z-scores (BWGAZ) for US-born births, 2006-2015. We developed an immigrant enclave score based on census-tract percentages of foreign-born, non-citizen, and linguistically-isolated households statewide. We estimated trimester-specific PM2.5 concentrations and proximity to major roads based residential address at birth. We fit multivariable linear regressions of BWGAZ and examined effect modification by maternal nativity. Analyses were restricted to nonsmoking women and term births. RESULTS: Foreign-born women had children with 0.176 (95% CI: 0.092, 0.261) higher BWGAZ than US-born women, demonstrating the IBP in our cohort. Immigrant enclave score was not associated with BWGAZ, even after adjusting for air pollution exposures. However, this association was significantly modified by maternal nativity (pinteraction = 0.014), in which immigrant enclave score was positively associated with BWGAZ for only foreign-born women (0.090, 95% CI: 0.007, 0.172). Proximity to major roads was negatively associated with BWGAZ (-0.018 per 10 m, 95% CI: -0.032, -0.003) and positively correlated with immigrant enclave scores. Trimester-specific PM2.5 concentrations were not associated with BWGAZ. SIGNIFICANCE: Residence in immigrant enclaves was associated with higher birthweight children for foreign-born women, supporting the role of immigrant enclaves in the IBP. Future research of the IBP should account for immigrant enclaves and assess their spatial correlation with potential environmental risk factors and protective resources.

Time-varying associations between COVID-19 case incidence and community-level sociodemographic, occupational, environmental, and mobility risk factors in Massachusetts.

BACKGROUND: Associations between community-level risk factors and COVID-19 incidence are used to identify vulnerable subpopulations and target interventions, but the variability of these associations over time remains largely unknown. We evaluated variability in the associations between community-level predictors and COVID-19 case incidence in 351 cities and towns in Massachusetts from March to October 2020. METHODS: Using publicly available sociodemographic, occupational, environmental, and mobility datasets, we developed mixed-effect, adjusted Poisson regression models to depict associations between these variables and town-level COVID-19 case incidence data across five distinct time periods. We examined town-level demographic variables, including z-scores of percent Black, Latinx, over 80 years and undergraduate students, as well as factors related to occupation, housing density, economic vulnerability, air pollution (PM 2.5 ), and institutional facilities. RESULTS: Associations between key predictor variables and town-level incidence varied across the five time periods. We observed reductions over time in the association with percentage Black residents (IRR=1.12 CI=(1.12-1.13) in spring, IRR=1.01 CI=(1.00-1.01) in fall). The association with number of long-term care facility beds per capita also decreased over time (IRR=1.28 CI=(1.26-1.31) in spring, IRR=1.07 CI=(1.05-1.09)in fall). Controlling for other factors, towns with higher percentages of essential workers experienced elevated incidence of COVID-19 throughout the pandemic (e.g., IRR=1.30 CI=(1.27-1.33) in spring, IRR=1.20, CI=(1.17-1.22) in fall). Towns with higher percentages of Latinx residents also had sustained elevated incidence over time (e.g., IRR=1.19 CI=(1.18-1.21) in spring, IRR=1.14 CI=(1.13-1.15) in fall). CONCLUSIONS: Town-level COVID-19 risk factors vary with time. In Massachusetts, racial (but not ethnic) disparities in COVID-19 incidence have decreased over time, perhaps indicating greater success in risk mitigation in selected communities. Our approach can be used to evaluate effectiveness of public health interventions and target specific mitigation efforts on the community level.

In Low- And Middle-Income Countries, Is Delivery In High-Quality Obstetric Facilities Geographically Feasible?

Delivery in a health facility is a key strategy for reducing maternal and neonatal mortality, yet increasing use of facilities has not consistently translated into reduced mortality in low- and middle-income countries. In such countries, many deliveries occur at primary care facilities, where the quality of care is poor. We modeled the geographic feasibility of service delivery redesign that shifted deliveries from primary care clinics to hospitals in six countries: Haiti, Kenya, Malawi, Namibia, Nepal, and Tanzania. We estimated the proportion of women within two hours of the nearest delivery facility, both currently and under redesign. Today, 83-100 percent of pregnant women in the study countries have two-hour access to a delivery facility. A policy of redesign would reduce two-hour access by at most 10 percent, ranging from 0.6 percent in Malawi to 9.9 percent in Tanzania. Relocating delivery services to hospitals would not unduly impede geographic access to care in the study countries. This policy should be considered in low- and middle-income countries, as it may be an effective approach to reducing maternal and newborn deaths.