The future of food from the sea.

Global food demand is rising, and serious questions remain about whether supply can increase sustainably1. Land-based expansion is possible but may exacerbate climate change and biodiversity loss, and compromise the delivery of other ecosystem services2-6. As food from the sea represents only 17% of the current production of edible meat, we ask how much food we can expect the ocean to sustainably produce by 2050. Here we examine the main food-producing sectors in the ocean-wild fisheries, finfish mariculture and bivalve mariculture-to estimate 'sustainable supply curves' that account for ecological, economic, regulatory and technological constraints. We overlay these supply curves with demand scenarios to estimate future seafood production. We find that under our estimated demand shifts and supply scenarios (which account for policy reform and technology improvements), edible food from the sea could increase by 21-44 million tonnes by 2050, a 36-74% increase compared to current yields. This represents 12-25% of the estimated increase in all meat needed to feed 9.8 billion people by 2050. Increases in all three sectors are likely, but are most pronounced for mariculture. Whether these production potentials are realized sustainably will depend on factors such as policy reforms, technological innovation and the extent of future shifts in demand.

Correction: Evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on ex-vessel prices using time-series analysis.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1007/s12562-021-01574-x.].

Evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on ex-vessel prices using time-series analysis.

The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and subsequent lockdown measures have impacted economies and industries worldwide. The fisheries industry witnessed a sharp decline in demand and a slump in fish prices due to its dependence on the food service industry. It is important to quantitatively assess those fish species affected most and the extent of the pandemic's impact on them, to take specific countermeasures. We propose a time-series analysis as an alternative to the current practice of using ad hoc year-on-year comparisons. Although the pandemic makes it difficult to construct a counterfactual approach due to the lack of an appropriate control group, we use time-series forecasting to simulate normal conditions using pre-pandemic data. In Tokyo, the unit price of fish species that were negatively impacted by the food services industry dropped by 12.65% to 14.64%, and by 26.08% to 28.22% after the declaration of a state of emergency. Seasonality, short weekly cycles, and short-term market trends are factors that affect the price of fish. Species-specific impact estimates related to the COVID-19 pandemic can allow policymakers to implement recovery measures in a more targeted and effective manner. The results of our analysis can increase fishers' and policymakers' awareness of the usefulness of economic analyses and incentivize them to release data to establish a system to accumulate and analyze data strategically for urgent and appropriate interventions in the fisheries industry.

γ-PGA and MTGase improve the formation of ε-(γ-glutamyl) lysine cross-links within hairtail (Trichiurus haumela) surimi protein.

The present study investigated the mechanism of ε-(γ-glutamyl) lysine cross-links within hairtail (Trichiurus haumela) surimi protein via γ-polyglutamic acid (γ-PGA) and MTGase. The results indicated that the addition of MTGase and γ-PGA markedly improved the gelation properties of hairtail surimi protein, including its maximum breaking force and deformation, water holding capacity and gel strength. The maximum improvements were achieved by adding 0.5units MTGase/g meat paste in combination with 0.06% γ-PGA. SDS-PAGE showed that the band intensity of cross-linked proteins increased, whereas that of myosin heavy chain decreased after treatments. Further scanning electron microscopy (SEM) analysis showed the formation of a denser gel matrix, which was caused by much stronger and more inter- and intra-molecular cross-linking of proteins, via MTGase catalysing ε-(γ-glutamyl) lysine cross-links formed between lysine residues in the gel protein and glutamic residues in the hydrolytic γ-PGA. The results provide reliable guidance for the improvement of hairtail surimi protein gelation properties.

Euryphorus brachypterus (Copepoda: Caligidae) on wild pacific bluefin tuna from the Tsugaru Strait, northern Japan.

Parasitic copepods infecting large scombrid fishes have been known for a long time because their hosts are economically important. Most studies, however, have focused on their morphology or their infection status in aquaculture from pathological viewpoints, and very few quantitative surveys have been conducted under conditions in the wild. This study therefore investigated the prevalence of Euryphorus brachypterus (Caligidae) in wild Pacific bluefin tuna (PBF). Results of sampling from August to September 2014 at the western area of the Tsugaru Strait, Japan showed that 13.2% of the PBF individuals (n = 1978) were infected with this copepod. The prevalence of infections was highest in larger fish but varied among landing dates, which were classified into three clusters and in all smaller fish, the prevalence of infections was zero. This suggests that E. brachypterus mainly uses the larger PBF, which becomes sources of further infections in other seas, and that at least two host populations with different infection statuses at the strait.