Spatial synchrony in sub-arctic geometrid moth outbreaks reflects dispersal in larval and adult life cycle stages.

Spatial synchrony in population dynamics can be caused by dispersal or spatially correlated variation in environmental factors like weather (Moran effect). Distinguishing between these mechanisms is challenging for natural populations, and the study of dispersal-induced synchrony in particular has been dominated by theoretical modelling and laboratory experiments. The goal of the present study was to evaluate the evidence for dispersal as a cause of meso-scale (distances of tens of kilometres) spatial synchrony in natural populations of the two cyclic geometrid moths Epirrita autumnata and Operophtera brumata in sub-arctic mountain birch forest in northern Norway. To infer the role of dispersal in geometrid synchrony, we applied three complementary approaches, namely estimating the effect of design-based dispersal barriers (open sea) on synchrony, comparing the strength of synchrony between E. autumnata (winged adults) and the less dispersive O. brumata (wingless adult females), and relating the directionality (anisotropy) of synchrony to the predominant wind directions during spring, when geometrid larvae engage in windborne dispersal (ballooning). The estimated effect of dispersal barriers on synchrony was almost three times stronger for the less dispersive O. brumata than E. autumnata. Inter-site synchrony was also weakest for O. brumata at all spatial lags. Both observations argue for adult dispersal as an important synchronizing mechanism at the spatial scales considered. Further, synchrony in both moth species showed distinct anisotropy and was most spatially extensive parallel to the east-west axis, coinciding closely to the overall dominant wind direction. This argues for a synchronizing effect of windborne larval dispersal. Congruent with most extensive dispersal along the east-west axis, E. autumnata also showed evidence for a travelling wave moving southwards at a speed of 50-80 km/year. Our results suggest that dispersal processes can leave clear signatures in both the strength and directionality of synchrony in field populations, and highlight wind-driven dispersal as promising avenue for further research on spatial synchrony in natural insect populations.

Upscaling the niche variation hypothesis from the intra- to the inter-specific level.

The "niche variation hypothesis" (NVH) predicts that populations with wider niches should display higher among-individual variability. This prediction originally stated at the intra-specific level may be extended to the inter-specific level: individuals of generalist species may differ to a greater extent than individuals of a specialist species. We tested the NVH at intra- and inter-specific levels based on a large diet database of three large herbivore feces collected in the field and analyzed using DNA metabarcoding. The three herbivores (roe deer Capreolus capreolus, chamois Rupicapra rupicapra and mouflon Ovis musimon) are highly contrasted in terms of sociality (solitary to highly gregarious) and diet. The NVH at the intraspecific level was tested by relating, for the same population, diet breadth and inter-individual variation across the four seasons. Compared to null models, our data supported the NVH both at the intra- and inter-specific levels. Inter-individual variation of the diet of solitary species was not larger than in social species, although social individuals feed together and could therefore have more similar diets. Hence, the NVH better explained diet breadth than other factors such as sociality. The expansion of the population niche of the three species was driven by resource availability, and achieved by an increase in inter-individual variation, and the level of inter-individual variability was larger in the generalist species (mouflon) than in the specialist one (roe deer). This mechanism at the base of the NVH appears at play at different levels of biological organization, from populations to communities.

The importance of willow thickets for ptarmigan and hares in shrub tundra: the more the better?

In patchy habitats, the relationship between animal abundance and cover of a preferred habitat may change with the availability of that habitat, resulting in a functional response in habitat use. Here, we investigate the relationship of two specialized herbivores, willow ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus) and mountain hare (Lepus timidus), to willows (Salix spp.) in three regions of the shrub tundra zone-northern Norway, northern European Russia and western Siberia. Shrub tundra is a naturally patchy habitat where willow thickets represent a major structural element and are important for herbivores both as food and shelter. Habitat use was quantified using feces counts in a hierarchical spatial design and related to several measures of willow thicket configuration. We document a functional response in the use of willow thickets by ptarmigan, but not by hares. For hares, whose range extends into forested regions, occurrence increased overall with willow cover. The occurrence of willow ptarmigan showed a strong positive relationship to willow cover and a negative relationship to thicket fragmentation in the region with lowest willow cover at landscape scale, where willow growth may be limited by reindeer browsing. In regions with higher cover, in contrast, such relationships were not observed. Differences in predator communities among the regions may contribute to the observed pattern, enhancing the need for cover where willow thickets are scarce. Such region-specific relationships reflecting regional characteristics of the ecosystem highlight the importance of large-scale investigations to understand the relationships of habitat availability and use, which is a critical issue considering that habitat availability changes quickly with climate change and human impact.

Postglacial species arrival and diversity buildup of northern ecosystems took millennia.

What drives ecosystem buildup, diversity, and stability? We assess species arrival and ecosystem changes across 16 millennia by combining regional-scale plant sedimentary ancient DNA from Fennoscandia with near-complete DNA and trait databases. We show that postglacial arrival time varies within and between plant growth forms. Further, arrival times were mainly predicted by adaptation to temperature, disturbance, and light. Major break points in ecological trait diversity were seen between 13.9 and 10.8 calibrated thousand years before the present (cal ka BP), as well as break point in functional diversity at 12.0 cal ka BP, shifting from a state of ecosystem buildup to a state where most habitat types and biotic ecosystem components were in place. Trait and functional diversity stabilized around 8 cal ka BP, after which both remained stable, although changes in climate took place and species inflow continued. Our ecosystem reconstruction indicates a millennial-scale time phase of formation to reach stable and resilient levels of diversity and functioning.

Cascading effects of moth outbreaks on subarctic soil food webs.

The increasing severity and frequency of natural disturbances requires a better understanding of their effects on all compartments of biodiversity. In Northern Fennoscandia, recent large-scale moth outbreaks have led to an abrupt change in plant communities from birch forests dominated by dwarf shrubs to grass-dominated systems. However, the indirect effects on the belowground compartment remained unclear. Here, we combined eDNA surveys of multiple trophic groups with network analyses to demonstrate that moth defoliation has far-reaching consequences on soil food webs. Following this disturbance, diversity and relative abundance of certain trophic groups declined (e.g., ectomycorrhizal fungi), while many others expanded (e.g., bacterivores and omnivores) making soil food webs more diverse and structurally different. Overall, the direct and indirect consequences of moth outbreaks increased belowground diversity at different trophic levels. Our results highlight that a holistic view of ecosystems improves our understanding of cascading effects of major disturbances on soil food webs.

Phenological and elevational shifts of plants, animals and fungi under climate change in the European Alps.

Mountain areas are biodiversity hotspots and provide a multitude of ecosystem services of irreplaceable socio-economic value. In the European Alps, air temperature has increased at a rate of about 0.36°C decade-1 since 1970, leading to glacier retreat and significant snowpack reduction. Due to these rapid environmental changes, this mountainous region is undergoing marked changes in spring phenology and elevational distribution of animals, plants and fungi. Long-term monitoring in the European Alps offers an excellent natural laboratory to synthetize climate-related changes in spring phenology and elevational distribution for a large array of taxonomic groups. This review assesses the climatic changes that have occurred across the European Alps during recent decades, spring phenological changes and upslope shifts of plants, animals and fungi from evidence in published papers and previously unpublished data. Our review provides evidence that spring phenology has been shifting earlier during the past four decades and distribution ranges show an upwards trend for most of the taxonomic groups for which there are sufficient data. The first observed activity of reptiles and terrestrial insects (e.g. butterflies) in spring has shifted significantly earlier, at an average rate of -5.7 and -6.0 days decade-1 , respectively. By contrast, the first observed spring activity of semi-aquatic insects (e.g. dragonflies and damselflies) and amphibians, as well as the singing activity or laying dates of resident birds, show smaller non-significant trends ranging from -1.0 to +1.3 days decade-1 . Leaf-out and flowering of woody and herbaceous plants showed intermediate trends with mean values of -2.4 and -2.8 days decade-1 , respectively. Regarding species distribution, plants, animals and fungi (N = 2133 species) shifted the elevation of maximum abundance (optimum elevation) upslope at a similar pace (on average between +18 and +25 m decade-1 ) but with substantial differences among taxa. For example, the optimum elevation shifted upward by +36.2 m decade-1 for terrestrial insects and +32.7 m decade-1 for woody plants, whereas it was estimated to range between -1.0 and +11 m decade-1 for semi-aquatic insects, ferns, birds and wood-decaying fungi. The upper range limit (leading edge) of most species also shifted upslope with a rate clearly higher for animals (from +47 to +91 m decade-1 ) than for plants (from +17 to +40 m decade-1 ), except for semi-aquatic insects (-4.7 m decade-1 ). Although regional land-use changes could partly explain some trends, the consistent upward shift found in almost all taxa all over the Alps is likely reflecting the strong warming and the receding of snow cover that has taken place across the European Alps over recent decades. However, with the possible exception of terrestrial insects, the upward shift of organisms seems currently too slow to track the pace of isotherm shifts induced by climate warming, estimated at about +62 to +71 m decade-1 since 1970. In the light of these results, species interactions are likely to change over multiple trophic levels through phenological and spatial mismatches. This nascent research field deserves greater attention to allow us to anticipate structural and functional changes better at the ecosystem level.

Fitness costs of reproduction depend on life speed: empirical evidence from mammalian populations.

Fitness costs of reproduction play a key role in understanding the evolution of reproductive tactics. Nevertheless, the detection and the intensity of costs of reproduction vary according to which life-history traits and species are studied. We propose an evolutionary model demonstrating that the chance of detecting a cost of reproduction should be lower when the fitness component studied has a low rather than high variance. Consequently, the fitness component that is affected the most by costs of reproduction should vary with life speed. Since long-lived species have developed a strategy that avoids jeopardizing their survival and short-lived species favour current reproduction, variance in survival is smaller and variance in reproduction higher in long-lived vs. short-lived species. We review empirical studies of costs of reproduction in free-ranging mammals, comparing evidence of costs reported among species and focal traits. In support of our model, more studies reported evidence of reproductive costs of reproduction in ungulates than in rodents, whereas survival costs of reproduction were more frequent in rodents than in ungulates. The life-history model we propose is expected to apply to any species, and hence provides a better understanding of life-history variation, which should be relevant to all evolutionary ecologists.

Warm temperatures during cold season can negatively affect adult survival in an alpine bird.

Climate seasonality is a predominant constraint on the lifecycles of species in alpine and polar biomes. Assessing the response of these species to climate change thus requires taking into account seasonal constraints on populations. However, interactions between seasonality, weather fluctuations, and population parameters remain poorly explored as they require long-term studies with high sampling frequency. This study investigated the influence of environmental covariates on the demography of a corvid species, the alpine chough Pyrrhocorax graculus, in the highly seasonal environment of the Mont Blanc region. In two steps, we estimated: (1) the seasonal survival of categories of individuals based on their age, sex, etc., (2) the effect of environmental covariates on seasonal survival. We hypothesized that the cold season-and more specifically, the end of the cold season (spring)-would be a critical period for individuals, and we expected that weather and individual covariates would influence survival variation during critical periods. We found that while spring was a critical season for adult female survival, it was not for males. This is likely because females are dominated by males at feeding sites during snowy seasons (winter and spring), and additionally must invest energy in egg production. When conditions were not favorable, which seemed to happen when the cold season was warmer than usual, females probably reached their physiological limits. Surprisingly, adult survival was higher at the beginning of the cold season than in summer, which may result from adaptation to harsh weather in alpine and polar vertebrates. This hypothesis could be confirmed by testing it with larger sets of populations. This first seasonal analysis of individual survival over the full life cycle in a sedentary alpine bird shows that including seasonality in demographic investigations is crucial to better understand the potential impacts of climate change on cold ecosystems.

Experimental evidence of a risk-sensitive reproductive allocation in a long-lived mammal.

When reproduction competes with the amount of resources available for survival during an unpredictable nonbreeding season, individuals should adopt a risk-sensitive regulation of their reproductive allocation. We tested this hypothesis on female reindeer (Rangifer tarandus), which face a trade-off between reproduction and acquisition of body reserves during spring and summer, with autumn body mass functioning as insurance against stochastic winter climatic severity. The study was conducted in a population consisting of two herds: one that received supplementary winter feeding for four years while the other utilized natural pastures. The females receiving additional forage allocated more to their calves. Experimental translocation of females between the herds was conducted to simulate two contrasting rapid alterations of winter conditions. When females receiving supplementary feeding were moved to natural pastures, they promptly reduced their reproductive allocation the following summer. However, when winter conditions were improved, females were reluctant to increase their reproductive allocation. This asymmetric response to improved vs. reduced winter conditions is consistent with a risk-averse adjustment in reproductive allocation. The ability of individuals to track their environment and the concordant risk-sensitive adjustment of reproductive allocation may render subarctic reindeer more resilient to climate change than previously supposed.

Seasonal difference in temporal transferability of an ecological model: near-term predictions of lemming outbreak abundances.

Ecological models have been criticized for a lack of validation of their temporal transferability. Here we answer this call by investigating the temporal transferability of a dynamic state-space model developed to estimate season-dependent biotic and climatic predictors of spatial variability in outbreak abundance of the Norwegian lemming. Modelled summer and winter dynamics parametrized by spatial trapping data from one cyclic outbreak were validated with data from a subsequent outbreak. There was a distinct difference in model transferability between seasons. Summer dynamics had good temporal transferability, displaying ecological models' potential to be temporally transferable. However, the winter dynamics transferred poorly. This discrepancy is likely due to a temporal inconsistency in the ability of the climate predictor (i.e. elevation) to reflect the winter conditions affecting lemmings both directly and indirectly. We conclude that there is an urgent need for data and models that yield better predictions of winter processes, in particular in face of the expected rapid climate change in the Arctic.

The spectacular human nose: an amplifier of individual quality?

Amplifiers are signals that improve the perception of underlying differences in quality. They are cost free and advantageous to high quality individuals, but disadvantageous to low quality individuals, as poor quality is easier perceived because of the amplifier. For an amplifier to evolve, the average fitness benefit to the high quality individuals should be higher than the average cost for the low quality individuals. The human nose is, compared to the nose of most other primates, extraordinary large, fragile and easily broken-especially in male-male interactions. May it have evolved as an amplifier among high quality individuals, allowing easy assessment of individual quality and influencing the perception of attractiveness? We tested the latter by manipulating the position of the nose tip or, as a control, the mouth in facial pictures and had the pictures rated for attractiveness. Our results show that facial attractiveness failed to be influenced by mouth manipulations. Yet, facial attractiveness increased when the nose tip was artificially centered according to other facial features. Conversely, attractiveness decreased when the nose tip was displaced away from its central position. Our results suggest that our evaluation of attractiveness is clearly sensitive to the centering of the nose tip, possibly because it affects our perception of the face's symmetry and/or averageness. However, whether such centering is related to individual quality remains unclear.