Toward Community-Driven Big Open Brain Science: Open Big Data and Tools for Structure, Function, and Genetics.

As acquiring bigger data becomes easier in experimental brain science, computational and statistical brain science must achieve similar advances to fully capitalize on these data. Tackling these problems will benefit from a more explicit and concerted effort to work together. Specifically, brain science can be further democratized by harnessing the power of community-driven tools, which both are built by and benefit from many different people with different backgrounds and expertise. This perspective can be applied across modalities and scales and enables collaborations across previously siloed communities.

Reassessing the role of urban green space in air pollution control.

The assumption that vegetation improves air quality is prevalent in scientific, popular, and political discourse. However, experimental and modeling studies show the effect of green space on air pollutant concentrations in urban settings is highly variable and context specific. We revisited the link between vegetation and air quality using satellite-derived changes of urban green space and air pollutant concentrations from 2,615 established monitoring stations over Europe and the United States. Between 2010 and 2019, stations recorded declines in ambient NO2, (particulate matter) PM10, and PM2.5 (average of -3.14% y-1), but not O3 (+0.5% y-1), pointing to the general success of recent policy interventions to restrict anthropogenic emissions. The effect size of total green space on air pollution was weak and highly variable, particularly at the street scale (15 to 60 m radius) where vegetation can restrict ventilation. However, when isolating changes in tree cover, we found a negative association with air pollution at borough to city scales (120 to 16,000 m) particularly for O3 and PM. The effect of green space was smaller than the pollutant deposition and dispersion effects of meteorological drivers including precipitation, humidity, and wind speed. When averaged across spatial scales, a one SD increase in green space resulted in a 0.8% (95% CI: -3.5 to 2%) decline in air pollution. Our findings suggest that while urban greening may improve air quality at the borough-to-city scale, the impact is moderate and may have detrimental street-level effects depending on aerodynamic factors like vegetation type and urban form.

Bikeability and the induced demand for cycling.

To what extent is the volume of urban bicycle traffic affected by the provision of bicycle infrastructure? In this study, we exploit a large dataset of GPS trajectories of bicycle trips in combination with a fine-grained representation of the Copenhagen bicycle-relevant network. We apply a model for bicyclists' choice of route from origin to destination that takes the complete network into account. This enables us to determine bicyclists' preferences for a range of infrastructure and land-use types. We use the estimated preferences to compute a generalized cost of bicycle travel, which we correlate with the number of bicycle trips across a large number of origin-destination pairs. Simulations suggest that the extensive Copenhagen bicycle lane network has caused the number of bicycle trips and the bicycle kilometers traveled to increase by 60% and 90%, respectively, compared with a counterfactual without the bicycle lane network. This translates into an annual benefit of €0.4M per km of bicycle lane owing to changes in generalized travel cost, health, and accidents. Our results thus strongly support the provision of bicycle infrastructure.

Transforming the grid for a more environmentally and socially sustainable electricity system in Great Britain is a slow and uneven process.

Electricity system decarbonization is key for environmental sustainability. From a consumption-production perspective, much attention has been paid to changes in how electricity is generated and used, but electricity systems also rely on a grid infrastructure that connects and integrates production and consumption, and which will also need to transform. At the same time, new technologies in the electricity system, including the grid, offer the potential for more socially sustainable ways of producing and consuming energy. However, in practice, change has been slow, uneven, and often dysfunctional. A socio-technical transitions approach offers insights into why this is so, seeing electricity system change not simply in technical and economic terms, but also as the outcomes of interactions between technology and social and political processes. The approach draws attention to the particular challenges of achieving rapid transitions in complex critical infrastructures like electricity with strong institutional logics of security. This article applies this approach to the case of Great Britain, where despite strong commitments to sustainability in the form of high-level climate policy, the electricity grid has often been a constraint on the pace of change. The nature of the British transition is explained partly by weak links between these high-level goals on the one hand and the detailed rules and practices in the electricity system on the other. It is also explained by patterns of ownership and grid regulation in the British case that protect incumbents and make it difficult for new actors to develop the system in more socially sustainable directions.

Climate oscillation impacts on water supply augmentation planning.

Climate oscillations ranging from years to decades drive precipitation variability in many river basins globally. As a result, many regions will require new water infrastructure investments to maintain reliable water supply. However, current adaptation approaches focus on long-term trends, preparing for average climate conditions at mid- or end-of-century. The impact of climate oscillations, which bring prolonged and variable but temporary dry periods, on water supply augmentation needs is unknown. Current approaches for theory development in nature-society systems are limited in their ability to realistically capture the impacts of climate oscillations on water supply. Here, we develop an approach to build middle-range theory on how common climate oscillations affect low-cost, reliable water supply augmentation strategies. We extract contrasting climate oscillation patterns across sub-Saharan Africa and study their impacts on a generic water supply system. Our approach integrates climate model projections, nonstationary signal processing, stochastic weather generation, and reinforcement learning-based advances in stochastic dynamic control. We find that longer climate oscillations often require greater water supply augmentation capacity but benefit more from dynamic approaches. Therefore, in settings with the adaptive capacity to revisit planning decisions frequently, longer climate oscillations do not require greater capacity. By building theory on the relationship between climate oscillations and least-cost reliable water supply augmentation, our findings can help planners target scarce resources and guide water technology and policy innovation. This approach can be used to support climate adaptation planning across large spatial scales in sectors impacted by climate variability.

Neurodevelopmental copy-number variants: A roadmap to improving outcomes by uniting patient advocates, researchers, and clinicians for collective impact.

Copy-number variants and structural variants (CNVs/SVs) drive many neurodevelopmental-related disorders. While many neurodevelopmental-related CNVs/SVs give rise to complex phenotypes, the overlap in phenotypic presentation between independent CNVs can be extensive and provides a motivation for shared approaches. This confluence at the level of clinical phenotype implies convergence in at least some aspects of the underlying genomic mechanisms. With this perspective, our Commission on Novel Technologies for Neurodevelopmental CNVs asserts that the time has arrived to approach neurodevelopmental-related CNVs/SVs as a class of disorders that can be identified, investigated, and treated on the basis of shared mechanisms and/or pathways (e.g., molecular, neurological, or developmental). To identify common etiologic mechanisms among uncommon neurodevelopmental-related disorders and to potentially identify common therapies, it is paramount for teams of scientists, clinicians, and patients to unite their efforts. We bring forward novel, collaborative, and integrative strategies to translational CNV/SV research that engages diverse stakeholders to help expedite therapeutic outcomes. We articulate a clear vision for piloted roadmap strategies to reduce patient/caregiver burden and redundancies, increase efficiency, avoid siloed data, and accelerate translational discovery across CNV/SV-based syndromes.

Efficacy of Centers of Biomedical Research Excellence (CoBRE) grants to build research capacity in underrepresented states.

Federal funding for research has immediate and long-term economic impact. Since federal research funding is regionally concentrated and not geographically distributed, the benefits are not fully realized in some regions of the country. The Established (previously Experimental) Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR) programs at several agencies, for example, the National Science Foundation, and the Institutional Development Award (IDeA) program at the National Institutes of Health were created to increase competitiveness for funding in states with historically low levels of federal funding. The Centers of Biomedical Research Excellence (CoBRE) award program is a component of the IDeA program. The CoBRE grants support research core facilities to develop research infrastructure. These grants also support the research projects of junior investigators, under the guidance of mentoring teams of senior investigators, to develop human resources at these institutions. Few studies have assessed the effectiveness of these programs. This study examines the investment and outcomes of the CoBRE grants from 2000 through 2022. The maturation of junior investigators into independently funded principal investigators is comparable to other mentoring programs supported by NIH. The investment in research cores resulted in substantial research productivity, measured by publications. Despite the successes of individual investigators and increased research infrastructure and productivity, the geographic distribution of federal and NIH research dollars has not changed. These results will be informative in consideration of policies designed to enhance the geographic distribution of federal research dollars.

Global expansion of sustainable irrigation limited by water storage.

Providing affordable and nutritious food to a growing and increasingly affluent global population requires multifaceted approaches to target supply and demand aspects. On the supply side, expanding irrigation is key to increase future food production, yet associated needs for storing water and implications of providing that water storage, remain unknown. Here, we quantify biophysical potentials for storage-fed sustainable irrigation-irrigation that neither depletes freshwater resources nor expands croplands but requires water to be stored before use-and study implications for food security and infrastructure. We find that water storage is crucial for future food systems because 460 km3/yr of sustainable blue water, enough to grow food for 1.15 billion people, can only be used for irrigation after storage. Even if all identified future dams were to contribute water to irrigation, water stored in dammed reservoirs could only supply 209 ± 50 km3/yr to irrigation and grow food for 631 ± 145 million people. In the face of this gap and the major socioecologic externalities from future dams, our results highlight limits of gray infrastructure for future irrigation and urge to increase irrigation efficiency, change to less water-intensive cropping systems, and deploy alternative storage solutions at scale.

Machine learning-driven multiscale modeling reveals lipid-dependent dynamics of RAS signaling proteins.

RAS is a signaling protein associated with the cell membrane that is mutated in up to 30% of human cancers. RAS signaling has been proposed to be regulated by dynamic heterogeneity of the cell membrane. Investigating such a mechanism requires near-atomistic detail at macroscopic temporal and spatial scales, which is not possible with conventional computational or experimental techniques. We demonstrate here a multiscale simulation infrastructure that uses machine learning to create a scale-bridging ensemble of over 100,000 simulations of active wild-type KRAS on a complex, asymmetric membrane. Initialized and validated with experimental data (including a new structure of active wild-type KRAS), these simulations represent a substantial advance in the ability to characterize RAS-membrane biology. We report distinctive patterns of local lipid composition that correlate with interfacially promiscuous RAS multimerization. These lipid fingerprints are coupled to RAS dynamics, predicted to influence effector binding, and therefore may be a mechanism for regulating cell signaling cascades.

Satellite mapping of urban built-up heights reveals extreme infrastructure gaps and inequalities in the Global South.

Information on urban built-up infrastructure is essential to understand the role of cities in shaping environmental, economic, and social outcomes. The lack of data on built-up heights over large areas has limited our ability to characterize urban infrastructure and its spatial variations across the world. Here, we developed a global atlas of urban built-up heights circa 2015 at 500-m resolution from the Sentinel-1 Ground Range Detected satellite data. Results show extreme gaps in per capita urban built-up infrastructure in the Global South compared with the global average, and even larger gaps compared with the average levels in the Global North. Per capita urban built-up infrastructures in some countries in the Global North are more than 30 times higher than those in the Global South. The results also show that the built-up infrastructure in 45 countries in the Global North combined, with ∼16% of the global population, is roughly equivalent to that of 114 countries in the Global South, with ∼74% of the global population. The inequality in urban built-up infrastructure, as measured by an inequality index, is large in most countries, but the largest in the Global South compared with the Global North. Our analysis reveals the scale of infrastructure demand in the Global South that is required in order to meet sustainable development goals.

European Society of Cardiology: the 2023 Atlas of Cardiovascular Disease Statistics.

This report from the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Atlas Project updates and expands upon the 2021 report in presenting cardiovascular disease (CVD) statistics for the ESC member countries. This paper examines inequalities in cardiovascular healthcare and outcomes in ESC member countries utilizing mortality and risk factor data from the World Health Organization and the Global Burden of Disease study with additional economic data from the World Bank. Cardiovascular healthcare data were collected by questionnaire circulated to the national cardiac societies of ESC member countries. Statistics pertaining to 2022, or latest available year, are presented. New material in this report includes contemporary estimates of the economic burden of CVD and mortality statistics for a range of CVD phenotypes. CVD accounts for 11% of the EU's total healthcare expenditure. It remains the most common cause of death in ESC member countries with over 3 million deaths per year. Proportionately more deaths from CVD occur in middle-income compared with high-income countries in both females (53% vs. 34%) and males (46% vs. 30%). Between 1990 and 2021, median age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) for CVD decreased by median >50% in high-income ESC member countries but in middle-income countries the median decrease was <12%. These inequalities between middle- and high-income ESC member countries likely reflect heterogeneous exposures to a range of environmental, socioeconomic, and clinical risk factors. The 2023 survey suggests that treatment factors may also contribute with middle-income countries reporting lower rates per million of percutaneous coronary intervention (1355 vs. 2330), transcatheter aortic valve implantation (4.0 vs. 153.4) and pacemaker implantation (147.0 vs. 831.9) compared with high-income countries. The ESC Atlas 2023 report shows continuing inequalities in the epidemiology and management of CVD between middle-income and high-income ESC member countries. These inequalities are exemplified by the changes in CVD ASMRs during the last 30 years. In the high-income ESC member countries, ASMRs have been in steep decline during this period but in the middle-income countries declines have been very small. There is now an important need for targeted action to reduce the burden of CVD, particularly in those countries where the burden is greatest.

Setting up a state-of-the-art laboratory in resource limited settings: A case study of the biomedical science research and training centre in Northeast Nigeria.

African science has substantial potential, yet it grapples with significant challenges. Here we describe the establishment of the Biomedical Science Research and Training Centre (BioRTC) in Yobe State, Northeast Nigeria, as a case study of a hub fostering on-continent research and describe strategies to overcome current barriers. We detail the steps taken to establish BioRTC, emphasising the critical importance of stakeholder engagement, community involvement, resource optimisation and collaborations. With its state-of-the-art facilities and commitment to training African scientists, BioRTC is poised to significantly advance neuroscience research and training in the region. Although we are in the early stages of our journey, our model, emphasizing open access and inclusivity, offers a replicable blueprint for neuroscience research development in similar resource-limited settings, promising to enrich the global neuroscience community. We invite the support and collaboration of those who share our vision and believe in our potential.

Managing the life cycle of a portfolio of open data resources at the SIB Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics.

Data resources are essential for the long-term preservation of scientific data and the reproducibility of science. The SIB Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics provides the life science community with a portfolio of openly accessible, high-quality databases and software platforms, which vary from expert-curated knowledgebases, such as UniProtKB/Swiss-Prot (part of the UniProt consortium) and STRING, to online platforms such as SWISS-MODEL and SwissDrugDesign. SIB's mission is to ensure that these resources are available in the long term, as long as their return on investment and their scientific impact are high. To this end, SIB provides its resources, in addition to stable financial support, with a range of high-quality, innovative services that are, to our knowledge, unique in the field. Through this first-class management framework with central services, such as user-centric consulting activities, legal support, open-science guidance, knowledge sharing and training efforts, SIB supports the promotion of excellence in resource development and operation. This review presents the ecosystem of data resources at SIB; the process used for the identification, evaluation and development of resources; and the support activities that SIB provides. A set of indicators has been put in place to select the resources and establish quality standards, reflecting their multifaceted nature and complexity. Through this paper, the reader will discover how SIB's leading tools and databases are fostered by the institute, leading them to be best-in-class resources able to tackle the burning matters that society faces from disease outbreaks and cancer to biodiversity and open science.

More than just 'added value': The perils of not establishing shared core facilities in resource-constrained communities.

The accelerating pace of technological advancements necessitates specialised expertise and cutting-edge instruments to maintain competitive research in life sciences. Core facilities - collaborative laboratories equipped with state-of-the-art tools and staffed by expert personnel - are vital resources that support diverse scientific endeavours. However, their adoption in lower-income communities has been comparatively stagnant due to both financial and cultural challenges. This paper explores the perils of not supporting core facilities on national research enterprises, underscoring the need for balanced investments in discovery science and crucial infrastructure support. We explore the implications from the perspectives of funders, university leaders and lab heads. We advocate for a paradigm shift to recognise these facilities as essential components of national research efforts. Core facilities are positioned not as optional but as strategic investments that can catalyse breakthroughs, particularly in environments with limited resources.

Case identification of non-traumatic brain injury in youth using linked population data.

BACKGROUND: Population-level administrative data provides a cost-effective means of monitoring health outcomes and service needs of clinical populations. This study aimed to present a method for case identification of non-traumatic brain injury in population-level data and to examine the association with sociodemographic factors. METHODS: An estimated resident population of youth aged 0-24 years was constructed using population-level datasets within the New Zealand Integrated Data Infrastructure. A clinical consensus committee reviewed the International Classification of Diseases Ninth and Tenth Editions codes and Read codes for inclusion in a case definition. Cases were those with at least one non-traumatic brain injury code present in the five years up until 30 June 2018 in one of four databases in the Integrated Data Infrastructure. Rates of non-traumatic brain injury were examined, both including and excluding birth injury codes and across age, sex, ethnicity, and socioeconomic deprivation groups. RESULTS: Of the 1 579 089 youth aged 0-24 years on 30 June 2018, 8154 (0.52%) were identified as having one of the brain injury codes in the five-years to 30 June 2018. Rates of non-traumatic brain injury were higher in males, children aged 0-4 years, Maori and Pacific young people, and youth living with high levels of social deprivation. CONCLUSION: This study presents a comprehensive method for case identification of non-traumatic brain injury using national population-level administrative data.

Quantifying the impacts of future shoreline modification on biodiversity in a case study of coastal Georgia, United States.

People often modify the shoreline to mitigate erosion and protect property from storm impacts. The 2 main approaches to modification are gray infrastructure (e.g., bulkheads and seawalls) and natural or green infrastructure (NI) (e.g., living shorelines). Gray infrastructure is still more often used for coastal protection than NI, despite having more detrimental effects on ecosystem parameters, such as biodiversity. We assessed the impact of gray infrastructure on biodiversity and whether the adoption of NI can mitigate its loss. We examined the literature to quantify the relationship of gray infrastructure and NI to biodiversity and developed a model with temporal geospatial data on ecosystem distribution and shoreline modification to project future shoreline modification for our study location, coastal Georgia (United States). We applied the literature-derived empirical relationships of infrastructure effects on biodiversity to the shoreline modification projections to predict change in biodiversity under different NI versus gray infrastructure scenarios. For our study area, which is dominated by marshes and use of gray infrastructure, when just under half of all new coastal infrastructure was to be NI, previous losses of biodiversity from gray infrastructure could be mitigated by 2100 (net change of biodiversity of +0.14%, 95% confidence interval -0.10% to +0.39%). As biodiversity continues to decline from human impacts, it is increasingly imperative to minimize negative impacts when possible. We therefore suggest policy and the permitting process be changed to promote the adoption of NI.

Cuantificación del impacto de la futura modificación de la costa sobre la biodiversidad en un estudio de caso de la costa de Georgia, Estados Unidos Resumen Las personas modifican con frecuencia la costa para mitigar la erosión o proteger su propiedad del impacto de las tormentas. Los dos enfoques principales para la modificación son la infraestructura gris (p. ej.: mamparos y malecones) y la infraestructura verde o natural (IN) (p.ej.: costas vivientes). La infraestructura gris es más común que la IN, a pesar de que tiene efectos dañinos sobre los parámetros ambientales, como la biodiversidad. Evaluamos el impacto de la infraestructura gris sobre la biodiversidad y si la adopción de la IN puede mitigar su pérdida. Analizamos la literatura para cuantificar la relación de la infraestructura gris y la IN con la biodiversidad. También desarrollamos un modelo con datos geoespaciales temporales sobre la distribución de los ecosistemas y la modificación de la costa para proyectar la modificación costera en el futuro en nuestra localidad de estudio: la costa de Georgia, Estados Unidos. Aplicamos las relaciones empíricas derivadas de la literatura de los efectos de la infraestructura sobre la biodiversidad a las proyecciones de modificación de la costa para predecir el cambio en la biodiversidad bajo diferentes escenarios de infraestructura gris versus IN. En nuestra área de estudio, que está dominada por marismas y usa infraestructura gris, cuando un poco menos de la mitad de toda la infraestructura costera nueva debería ser IN, las pérdidas previas de biodiversidad a partir de la infraestructura gris podrían mitigarse para 2100 (cambio neto de la biodiversidad de +0.14%, 95% intervalo de confianza ­0.10% a +0.39%). Conforme la biodiversidad siga en declive por el impacto humano, cada vez es más imperativo minimizar el impacto negativo cuando sea posible. Por lo tanto, sugerimos que se modifiquen las políticas y el proceso de permisos para promover la adopción de la IN.

Threats to conservation from national security interests.

There is a growing trend of nation states invoking national security and emergency declarations to build state-sponsored infrastructure projects for border defense, energy production, and transportation. Established laws, regulations, and agreements for the protection of nature and cultural heritage within and between countries are becoming secondary to national security, compromising the function of protected areas, such as national parks, wilderness areas, and biosphere reserves that safeguard biodiversity, climate, and human health. We considered cases where decades-long multinational cross-border endangered species recovery programs have been jeopardized by waivers of environmental protection laws to facilitate rapid construction of border barriers that impede the movement and migration of animals, such as at the US-Mexico and Poland-Belarus borders. Renewable energy megaprojects, such as the Pinacate solar plant in Mexico, coupled with power transmission lines and road networks likewise cast a large footprint on the land and are being carried out with minimal to no environmental compliance under the guise of national security. National sovereignty likewise has been used as justification for bypassing laws to proceed with similar projects, such as Mexico's Dos Bocas refinery and Poland's Vistula Spit canal. Emphasis on security is also apparent in increasing military expenditure by the world's largest economies, which has created a mismatch with improvement in environmental policy stringency. Decisions to prioritize security can undermine democratic principles and environmental review protocols, trivialize humanity's dependence on functioning ecosystems, and contradict the United Nation's resolution on the human right to a healthy environment. Framing infrastructure projects as matters of national security also foments civil and political unrest by the labeling and casting of dissenters, including conservation scientists and environmental defenders, as antinational. World leaders must refrain from misusing extraordinary powers, adhere to laws and international agreements, and consult experts and local people before taking unilateral action on projects that affect ecological and human communities.

Amenazas para la conservación a partir de los intereses nacionales de seguridad Resumen En los países existe una tendencia creciente por invocar la seguridad nacional y las declaraciones de emergencia para construir infraestructuras financiadas por el estado para la defensa de las fronteras, producción de energía y transporte. Las leyes, regulaciones y acuerdos establecidos para la protección de la naturaleza y el patrimonio cultural dentro y entre los países se están relegando por la seguridad nacional, lo que compromete la función de las áreas protegidas (parques nacionales, áreas silvestres y reservas de la biósfera) que resguardan la biodiversidad, el clima y la salud humana. Consideramos los casos en donde se han puesto en peligro los programas longevos y multinacionales de recuperación de especies en peligro por las exenciones a las leyes de protección ambiental para facilitar la construcción rápida de barreras fronterizas que impiden el movimiento y la migración de animales, como es el caso de las fronteras entre EU y México y Polonia y Bielorrusia. Los megaproyectos de energía renovable, como la planta solar del Pinacate en México, en conjunto con las líneas de transmisión eléctrica y las redes de carreteras también dejan una gran huella sobre la tierra y se realizan con el mínimo o ningún cumplimiento bajo el aspecto de la seguridad nacional. La soberanía nacional también se ha usado para justificar la omisión de las leyes para proceder con proyectos similares, como la refinería de Dos Bocas en México y el canal Vistula Spit en Polonia. El énfasis sobre la seguridad también es evidente con el incremento del gasto militar de las mayores economías mundiales, lo que ha creado una desigualdad con las mejoras en la exigencia de la política ambiental. Las decisiones para priorizar la seguridad pueden debilitar los principios democráticos y los protocolos de revisión ambiental, banalizar la dependencia de la humanidad por los ecosistemas funcionales y contradecir la resolución de las Naciones Unidas sobre el derecho humano a un ambiente saludable. Cuando se denominan los proyectos de infraestructura como asuntos de seguridad nacional, también se fomenta el malestar civil y político al etiquetar como antinacionales a los disidentes, incluidos los defensores ambientales y los científicos de la conservación. Los líderes mundiales deben abstenerse de usar indebidamente los poderes extraordinarios, adherirse a las leyes y acuerdos internacionales y consultar con expertos y personas locales antes de actuar de forma unilateral en cuanto a proyectos que afectan las comunidades humanas y ecológicas.

Impacts of existing and planned roads on terrestrial mammal habitat in New Guinea.

New Guinea is one of the last regions in the world with vast pristine areas and is home to many endemic species. However, extensive road development plans threaten the island's biodiversity. We quantified habitat fragmentation due to existing and planned roads for 139 terrestrial mammal species in New Guinea. For each species, we calculated the equivalent connected area (ECA) of habitat, a metric that takes into account the area and connectivity of habitat patches in 3 situations: no roads (baseline situation), existing roads (current), and existing and planned roads combined (future). We assessed the effect of roads as the proportion of the ECA remaining in the current and future situations relative to the baseline. To examine whether there were patterns in these relative ECA values, we fitted beta-regression models relating these values to 4 species characteristics: taxonomic order, body mass, diet, and International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List status. On average across species, current ECA was 89% (SD 12) of baseline ECA. Shawmayer's coccymys (Coccymys shawmayeri) had the lowest amount of current ECA relative to the baseline (53%). In the future situation, the average remaining ECA was 71% (SD 20) of baseline ECA. Future remaining ECA was below 50% of the baseline for 28 species. The montane soft-furred paramelomys (Paramelomys mollis) had the lowest future ECA relative to the baseline (36%). In general, currently nonthreatened carnivorous species with a large body mass had the greatest reductions of ECA in the future situation. In conclusion, future road development plans imply extensive additional habitat fragmentation for a large number of terrestrial mammal species in New Guinea. It is therefore important to limit the impact of planned roads, for example, by reconsidering the location of planned roads that intersect habitat of the most threatened species, or by the implementation of mitigation measures such as underpasses.

Impacto de las carreteras planeadas y existentes sobre el hábitat de mamíferos terrestres en Nueva Guinea Resumen Nueva Guinea es una de las últimas regiones del mundo con zonas vírgenes extensas que alberga muchas especies endémicas. Sin embargo, los planes extensivos de desarrollo de carreteras amenazan la biodiversidad de la isla. Cuantificamos la fragmentación del hábitat causada por las carreteras existentes y previstas para 139 especies de mamíferos terrestres de Nueva Guinea. Para cada especie, calculamos el área conectada equivalente (ACE) del hábitat, una medida que considera el área y la conectividad de los fragmentos de hábitat en tres situaciones: sin carreteras (situación de referencia), carreteras existentes (actual) y la combinación de carreteras existentes y previstas (futuro). Evaluamos el efecto de las carreteras como la proporción de ACE que quedaba en las situaciones actual y futura en relación con la situación de referencia. Para examinar si existían patrones en estos valores relativos de ECA, ajustamos modelos de regresión beta relacionando estos valores con cuatro características de las especies: orden taxonómico, masa corporal, dieta y estado en la Lista Roja de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza. En promedio para todas las especies, la ACE actual fue 89% (DE 12) de la ACE basal. La especie Coccymys shawmayeri presentó la menor cantidad de ACE actual en relación con la base de referencia (53%). En la situación futura, la media de ACE restante fue del 71% (DE 20) de la ACE de referencia. La ACE restante futura fue inferior al 50% de la línea de base para 28 especies. La especie Paramelomys mollis tuvo la ACE futura más baja en relación con la línea base (36%). En general, las especies carnívoras que no están amenazadas actualmente y tienen una masa corporal grande tuvieron la mayor reducción de ACE en la situación futura. Para concluir, la futura construcción de carreteras implica una extensa fragmentación de hábitat adicional para un gran número de especies de mamíferos terrestres en Nueva Guinea. Por esto es importante limitar el impacto de las carreteras planeadas, por ejemplo, reconsiderando la ubicación de las carreteras que cruzan el hábitat de las especies más amenazadas o implementando medidas de mitigación como los pasos subterráneos.

Achieving biodiversity net gain by addressing governance gaps underpinning ecological compensation policies.

Biodiversity compensation policies have emerged around the world to address the ecological harms of infrastructure expansion, but historically compliance is weak. The Westminster government is introducing a requirement that new infrastructure developments in England demonstrate they achieve a biodiversity net gain (BNG). We sought to determine the magnitude of the effects of governance gaps and regulator capacity constraints on the policy's potential biodiversity impacts. We collated BNG information from all new major developments across six early-adopter councils from 2020 to 2022. We quantified the proportion of the biodiversity outcomes promised under BNG at risk of noncompliance, explored the variation in strategies used to meet developers' biodiversity liabilities, and quantified the occurrence of simple errors in the biodiversity metric calculations. For large developments and energy infrastructure, biodiversity liabilities frequently met within the projects' development footprint. For small developments, the purchase of offsets was most common. We estimated that 27% of all biodiversity units fell into governance gaps that exposed them to a high risk of noncompliance because they were associated with better-condition habitats delivered on-site that were unlikely to be monitored or enforced. More robust governance mechanisms (e.g., practical mechanisms for monitoring and enforcement) would help ensure the delivery of this biodiversity on-site. Alternatively, more biodiversity gains could be delivered through off-site biodiversity offsetting. For the latter case, we estimated that the demand for offsets could rise by a factor of 4; this would substantially increase the financial contributions from developers for conservation activities on private land. Twenty-one percent of development applications contained a simple recurring error in their BNG calculations. One-half of these applications were approved by councils, which may indicate under-resourcing in council development assessments. Our findings demonstrate that resourcing and governance shortfalls risk undermining the policy's effectiveness.

sObtención de la ganancia neta de biodiversidad mediante el abordaje de las lagunas en la gobernanza que apuntalan las políticas de compensación ecológica Resumen Las políticas de compensación por biodiversidad han surgido en todo el mundo para abordar los daños ecológicos de la expansión infraestructural, aunque su cumplimiento histórico es deficiente. El gobierno de Westminster está introduciendo un requerimiento para que las nuevas infraestructuras en Inglaterra demuestren que obtienen una ganancia neta de biodiversidad (GNB). Buscamos determinar la magnitud que tienen los efectos de las lagunas de gobernanza y las restricciones de la capacidad regulatoria sobre los impactos potenciales de la política en la biodiversidad. Recopilamos la información de GNB de todos los desarrollos principales en seis consejos pioneros entre 2020 y 2022. Cuantificamos la proporción de los resultados de biodiversidad prometidos bajo la GNB en riesgo de no ser cumplidos, exploramos la variación de estrategias usadas para cumplir las responsabilidades de biodiversidad de los desarrolladores y cuantificamos la incidencia de errores simples en el cálculo de las medidas de biodiversidad. En los grandes desarrollos y en la infraestructura energética, las responsabilidades de biodiversidad fueron cumplidas con frecuencia dentro de la huella de desarrollo del proyecto. En los pequeños desarrollos, la compra de compensaciones fue más común. Estimamos que el 27% de todas las unidades de biodiversidad caen dentro de las lagunas de gobernanza que las exponen a un riesgo elevado de no ser cumplidas porque se asociaban con hábitats en mejores condiciones entregados en sitios con mayor probabilidad de no ser monitoreados o implementados. Tener mecanismos de gobernanza más robustos (mecanismos prácticos para el monitoreo y la implementación) ayudaría a asegurar la entrega de esta biodiversidad en sitio. Como alternativa, una mayor ganancia de biodiversidad podría entregarse a través de las compensaciones de biodiversidad fuera de sitio. Para el último caso, estimamos que la demanda de compensaciones podría aumentar en un factor de 4; esto incrementaría sustancialmente las contribuciones económicas de los desarrolladores para las actividades de conservación en suelo privado. El 21% de las aplicaciones de desarrollo incluyeron un error simple recurrente en los cálculos de su GNB. La mitad de estas aplicaciones fueron aprobadas por consejos, lo que podría indicar una escasez de evaluaciones en los consejos. Nuestros resultados demuestran que la insuficiencia en la dotación de recursos y la de gobernanza arriesga la efectividad de las políticas.

Building pondscapes for amphibian metapopulations.

The success of ponds constructed to restore ecological infrastructure for pond-breeding amphibians and benefit aquatic biodiversity depends on where and how they are built. We studied effects of pond and landscape characteristics, including connectivity, on metapopulation dynamics of 12 amphibian species in Switzerland. To understand the determinants of long-term occupancy (here summarized as incidence), environmental effects on both colonization and persistence should be considered. We fitted dynamic occupancy models to 20 years of monitoring data on a pond construction program to quantify effects of pond and landscape characteristics and different connectivity metrics on colonization and persistence probabilities in constructed ponds. Connectivity to existing populations explained dynamics better than structural connectivity metrics, and simple metrics (distance to the nearest neighbor population, population density) were useful surrogates for dispersal kernel-weighted metrics commonly used in metapopulation theory. Population connectivity mediated the persistence of conservation target species in new ponds, suggesting source-sink dynamics in newly established populations. Population density captured this effect well and could be used by practitioners for site selection. Ponds created where there were 2-4 occupied ponds within a radius of ∼0.5 km had >3.5 times higher incidence of target species (median) than isolated ponds. Species had individual preferences regarding pond characteristics, but breeding sites with larger (≥100 m2) total water surface area, that temporarily dried, and that were in surroundings with maximally 50% forest benefitted multiple target species. Pond diversity will foster amphibian diversity at the landscape scale.

Construcción de estanques para meta poblaciones de anfibios Resumen El éxito de los estanques construidos para restaurar la infraestructura ecológica para los anfibios que allí se reproducen y para beneficiar la biodiversidad acuática depende de en dónde y cómo se construyen. Estudiamos los efectos de las características de los estanques y el paisaje, incluida la conectividad, sobre la dinámica de las meta poblaciones de 12 especies de anfibios en Suiza. Se deben considerar los efectos ambientales sobre la colonización y la persistencia para entender las determinantes de la ocupación a largo plazo (resumida aquí como incidencia). Ajustamos los modelos dinámicos de ocupación a datos de 20 años de monitoreo de un programa de construcción de estanques para cuantificar los efectos de las características del estanque y el paisaje y las diferentes medidas de conectividad para las probabilidades de colonización y persistencia en los estanques construidos. La conectividad con las poblaciones existentes explicó mejor la dinámica que las medidas de conectividad estructural, mientras que las medidas simples (distancia a la población vecina más cercana, densidad poblacional) fueron sustitutos útiles para las medidas de dispersión ponderadas al núcleo que se usan con frecuencia en la teoría de meta poblaciones. La conectividad poblacional medió la persistencia de las especies a conservar en los estanques nuevos, lo que sugiere que hay dinámicas fuente­sumidero en las poblaciones recién establecidas. La densidad poblacional capturó muy bien este efecto y podría usarse para que los practicantes seleccionen sitios. Los estanques construidos en un radio de ≈0.5 km de dos a cuatro estanques ocupados tuvieron >3.5 más incidencia de las especies a conservar (mediana) que los estanques aislados. Las especies tuvieron preferencias individuales con respecto a las características de los estanques, aunque los sitios de reproducción con una mayor superficie total de agua (≥100 m2), que se secaban temporalmente y que estaban rodeados con un máximo de 50% de bosque beneficiaron a muchas especies a conservar. Por esto, la diversidad de estanques promoverá la diversidad de anfibios a escala de paisaje.