Correcting misperceptions of the material benefits associated with union membership increases Americans' interest in joining unions.

How accurate are Americans' perceptions of the material benefits associated with union membership, and do these perceptions influence their support for, and interest in joining, unions? We explore these questions in a preregistered, survey experiment conducted on a national sample, representative of the US population on a number of demographic benchmarks (n = 1,430). We find that Americans exhibit large and consistent underestimates of the benefits associated with unionization, as compared to evidence from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and peer-reviewed academic research. For example, 89% of Americans underestimated the life-time income premium associated with union membership, 72% underestimated the percentage of union members who receive health insurance from their employer, and 97% overestimated the average union dues rate. We next randomly assigned half of the participants to receive a brief, informational correction conveying results of academic and government research on the material benefits associated with union membership, or not. Those who received the correction reported 11.6% greater interest in joining a union, 7.8% greater support for unions, and 6.9% greater interest in helping to organize a union in their workplace, as compared to the control group. These results suggest that, overall, Americans tend to underestimate the material benefits associated with unionization, misperceptions of these benefits are causally linked to Americans' support for unionization, and correcting these misperceptions increases a range of pro-union sentiments in the American mass public.

Declining Chinese attitudes toward the United States amid COVID-19.

In this paper, we present findings from four separate studies using different data sources and methods to examine Chinese attitudes toward the United States amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The empirical results consistently indicate a marked and significant decline in Chinese attitudes toward the US between late 2019 and the end of 2022. Using a quasi-experimental design and granular survey data that exploit daily variations in public opinion, we offer additional evidence that the decline in Chinese attitudes toward the United States followed a distinct pattern not true for Chinese attitudes toward other countries. Specifically, the rise in Chinese unfavorability toward the United States closely corresponded to the heightened Chinese attention to the pandemic's progression in the United States. These results collectively suggest a causal effect of COVID-19, shedding light on how public health crises, international relations, and media jointly shape the increasing enmity between the two great powers.

Peer conformity and competition shape how business managers evaluate withdrawals from Russia amid the Ukraine War.

States have long used economic sanctions in response to violations of international law as a strategy to restore order. Increasingly, firms also reject doing business with violators. In response to the war in Ukraine, hundreds of multinational corporations voluntarily withdrew from Russia, even when policymakers were still debating the extent of sanctions. How did firm managers evaluate whether to withdraw from the Russian market? Using a survey experiment with Japanese firm managers conducted three months after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, we explore how peer effects-information on what other firms are doing in response to the crisis-influence support for withdrawal of business activity with Russia. Our findings show that information about withdrawal by other firms from a diverse set of countries promotes peer conformity that increases support. In contrast, information about ongoing business with Russia by Chinese firms fosters competition that reduces support. Market exposure moderates these reactions, although the concern about peer behavior does not appear to be driven by a reputation mechanism. Our research provides insight into how business actors perceive the strategic interplay of peer influence and market dynamics in the context of geopolitical conflicts.

A mechanistic model of gossip, reputations, and cooperation.

Social reputations facilitate cooperation: those who help others gain a good reputation, making them more likely to receive help themselves. But when people hold private views of one another, this cycle of indirect reciprocity breaks down, as disagreements lead to the perception of unjustified behavior that ultimately undermines cooperation. Theoretical studies often assume population-wide agreement about reputations, invoking rapid gossip as an endogenous mechanism for reaching consensus. However, the theory of indirect reciprocity lacks a mechanistic description of how gossip actually generates consensus. Here, we develop a mechanistic model of gossip-based indirect reciprocity that incorporates two alternative forms of gossip: exchanging information with randomly selected peers or consulting a single gossip source. We show that these two forms of gossip are mathematically equivalent under an appropriate transformation of parameters. We derive an analytical expression for the minimum amount of gossip required to reach sufficient consensus and stabilize cooperation. We analyze how the amount of gossip necessary for cooperation depends on the benefits and costs of cooperation, the assessment rule (social norm), and errors in reputation assessment, strategy execution, and gossip transmission. Finally, we show that biased gossip can either facilitate or hinder cooperation, depending on the direction and magnitude of the bias. Our results contribute to the growing literature on cooperation facilitated by communication, and they highlight the need to study strategic interactions coupled with the spread of social information.

Follow the trail: Using insights from the growth of palliative care to propose a roadmap for cancer rehabilitation.

Despite research explicating the benefits of cancer rehabilitation interventions to optimize physical, social, emotional, and vocational functioning, many reports document low rates of referral to and uptake of rehabilitation in oncology. Cancer rehabilitation clinicians, researchers, and policy makers could learn from the multidisciplinary specialty of palliative care, which has benefited from a growth strategy and has garnered national recognition as an important and necessary aspect of oncology care. The purpose of this article is to explore the actions that have increased the uptake and integration of palliative care to yield insights and multimodal strategies for the development and growth of cancer rehabilitation. After examining the history of palliative care and its growth, the authors highlight 5 key strategies that may benefit the field of cancer rehabilitation: 1) stimulating the science in specific gap areas; 2) creating clinical practice guidelines; 3) building clinical capacity; 4) ascertaining and responding to public opinion; and 5) advocating for public policy change. Coordinated and simultaneous advances on these 5 strategies may catalyze the growth, utilization, and effectiveness of patient screening, timely referrals, and delivery of appropriate cancer rehabilitation care that reduces disability and improves quality of life for cancer survivors who need these services.

Estimating the value of democracy relative to other institutional and economic outcomes among citizens in Brazil, France, and the United States.

How much do citizens value democracy? How willing are they to sacrifice their liberties and voting rights for growth, equality, or other social outcomes? We design a conjoint experiment in nationally representative surveys in Brazil, France, and the United States in which respondents choose between different societies that randomly vary in their economic outcomes (country income, income inequality, social mobility), political outcomes (democracy, public health insurance), and the level of personal income for each respondent. Our research allows us to estimate the respondents' willingness to trade off democracy for individual income (as well as other societal attributes). We find that, on average, individuals are strongly attached to democracy and a robust welfare state. They prefer to live in a country without free democratic elections only if their individual income multiplies by at least three times and in a country without public health insurance only if their individual income more than doubles. After estimating these preferences at the individual level for all respondents, we show that, although there is an authoritarian minority in all three countries, forming a nondemocratic majority (by offering more income and/or other goods to respondents) is very unlikely. Our findings imply that, contrary to a growing discussion about the crisis of democracy, liberal democratic values remain substantially robust in high and middle income democracies.

Automated crystal system identification from electron diffraction patterns using multiview opinion fusion machine learning.

A bottleneck in high-throughput nanomaterials discovery is the pace at which new materials can be structurally characterized. Although current machine learning (ML) methods show promise for the automated processing of electron diffraction patterns (DPs), they fail in high-throughput experiments where DPs are collected from crystals with random orientations. Inspired by the human decision-making process, a framework for automated crystal system classification from DPs with arbitrary orientations was developed. A convolutional neural network was trained using evidential deep learning, and the predictive uncertainties were quantified and leveraged to fuse multiview predictions. Using vector map representations of DPs, the framework achieves a testing accuracy of 0.94 in the examples considered, is robust to noise, and retains remarkable accuracy using experimental data. This work highlights the ability of ML to be used to accelerate experimental high-throughput materials data analytics.

Planning instruments enhance the acceptance of urban densification.

Dense and compact cities yield several benefits for both the population and the environment, including the containment of urban sprawl, reduced carbon emissions, and increased housing supply. Densification of the built environment is thus a key contemporary urban planning paradigm worldwide. However, local residents often oppose urban densification, motivating a need to understand their underlying concerns. In order to do so, we examined different factors driving public acceptance of housing densification projects through a combination of a conjoint survey experiment and different proximity frames among 12,402 participants across Berlin, Chicago, London, Los Angeles, New York, and Paris. Respondents compared housing densification projects with varying attributes, including their geographic proximity, project-related factors, and accompanying planning instruments. The results indicate that the acceptance of such projects decreases with project proximity and that project-related factors, such as the type of investor, usage, and climate goals, impact densification project acceptance. More specifically, we see a negative effect on acceptance levels for projects with for-profit investors and a positive effect when the suggested developments are mixed use or climate neutral. In addition, planning instruments, such as rent control, inclusionary zoning, and participatory planning, appear to positively influence acceptance. Interestingly, a cross-continental comparison shows overall higher acceptance levels of densification by US respondents. These multifaceted results allow us to better understand what drives people's acceptance of housing projects and how projects and planning processes can be designed to increase democratic acceptance of urban densification.

How digital media drive affective polarization through partisan sorting.

Politics has in recent decades entered an era of intense polarization. Explanations have implicated digital media, with the so-called echo chamber remaining a dominant causal hypothesis despite growing challenge by empirical evidence. This paper suggests that this mounting evidence provides not only reason to reject the echo chamber hypothesis but also the foundation for an alternative causal mechanism. To propose such a mechanism, the paper draws on the literatures on affective polarization, digital media, and opinion dynamics. From the affective polarization literature, we follow the move from seeing polarization as diverging issue positions to rooted in sorting: an alignment of differences which is effectively dividing the electorate into two increasingly homogeneous megaparties. To explain the rise in sorting, the paper draws on opinion dynamics and digital media research to present a model which essentially turns the echo chamber on its head: it is not isolation from opposing views that drives polarization but precisely the fact that digital media bring us to interact outside our local bubble. When individuals interact locally, the outcome is a stable plural patchwork of cross-cutting conflicts. By encouraging nonlocal interaction, digital media drive an alignment of conflicts along partisan lines, thus effacing the counterbalancing effects of local heterogeneity. The result is polarization, even if individual interaction leads to convergence. The model thus suggests that digital media polarize through partisan sorting, creating a maelstrom in which more and more identities, beliefs, and cultural preferences become drawn into an all-encompassing societal division.

Revisiting the most often used item in the haematological tool box-The extent of haemodilution in bone marrow aspirates.

In this issue, a nationwide retrospective Japanese study finds that, in a second opinion setting, one-third of bone marrow aspirates from patients suspected of myelodysplastic syndromes are heavily haemodiluted. Moreover, in four-fifths of such cases, the failure to obtain the correct material for diagnosis went undetected by the referring institution. These data are intriguing, but given their special set-up, caution should be exerted in transposing them to other countries. Commentary on: Ogata et al. Prevalence of massively diluted bone marrow cell samples aspirated from patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) or suspected MDS: A retrospective analysis of nationwide samples in Japan. Br J Haematol 2024;204:1856-1861.

Bigger is not necessarily better: empirical tests show that dispersal proxies misrepresent actual dispersal ability.

Tests for the role of species' relative dispersal abilities in ecological and biogeographical models rely heavily on dispersal proxies, which are seldom substantiated by empirical measures of actual dispersal. This is exemplified by tests of dispersal-range size relationships and by metacommunity research that often features invertebrates, particularly freshwater insects. Using rare and unique empirical data on dispersal abilities of caddisflies, we tested whether actual dispersal abilities were associated with commonly used dispersal proxies (metrics of wing size and shape; expert opinion). Across 59 species in 12 families, wing morphology was not associated with actual dispersal. Within some families, individual wing metrics captured some dispersal differences among species, although useful metrics varied among families and predictive power was typically low. Dispersal abilities assigned by experts were either no better than random or actually poorer than random. Our results cast considerable doubt on research underpinned by dispersal proxies and scrutiny of previous research results may be warranted. Greater progress may lie in employing innovative survey and experimental design to measure actual dispersal in the field.

Elicitation of expert prior opinion to design the BARJDM trial in juvenile dermatomyositis.

OBJECTIVES: To elicit and quantify expert opinion concerning the relative merits of two treatments for a rare inflammatory disease: Juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM). The formal expression of expert opinion reported in this paper will be used in a Bayesian analysis of a forthcoming randomised controlled trial known as BARJDM (baricitinib for juvenile dermatomyositis). METHODS: A Bayesian prior elicitation meeting was convened, following a previously described methodological template. Opinion was sought on the probability that a patient in the BARJDM trial would achieve clinically inactive disease, off glucocorticoids (GC) within a 12-month period with either methotrexate (standard of care); or baricitinib (a Janus kinase inhibitor, JAKi), with GC schedules identical in both arms of the trial. Experts' views were discussed and refined following presentation and further discussion of summated published data regarding efficacy of methotrexate or JAKi for JDM. RESULTS: Ten UK paediatric rheumatology consultants (including one adolescent paediatric rheumatologist) participated in the elicitation meeting. All had expertise in JDM, leading active National Health Service clinics for this disease. Consensus expert prior opinion was that the most likely probability of clinically inactive disease off GC within 12 months was 0.55 on baricitinib and 0.23 on methotrexate, with a greater degree of uncertainty for baricitinib. CONCLUSION: Experts currently think that baricitinib is superior to MTX for the treatment of JDM, although there is uncertainty around this. BARJDM will therefore integrate randomised trial data with this expert prior opinion to derive a posterior distribution for the relative efficacy of baricitinib compared with MTX.

Learning From Aggregated Opinion.

The capacity to leverage information from others' opinions is a hallmark of human cognition. Consequently, past research has investigated how we learn from others' testimony. Yet a distinct form of social information-aggregated opinion-increasingly guides our judgments and decisions. We investigated how people learn from such information by conducting three experiments with participants recruited online within the United States (N = 886) comparing the predictions of three computational models: a Bayesian solution to this problem that can be implemented by a simple strategy for combining proportions with prior beliefs, and two alternatives from epistemology and economics. Across all studies, we found the strongest concordance between participants' judgments and the predictions of the Bayesian model, though some participants' judgments were better captured by alternative strategies. These findings lay the groundwork for future research and show that people draw systematic inferences from aggregated opinion, often in line with a Bayesian solution.

Expert opinion on the use of contraception in people with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Current guidance on the selection of appropriate contraception for people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) is lacking. OBJECTIVE: To address this gap, an expert-led consensus program developed recommendations to support clinicians in discussing family planning and contraception with women and men with multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: A multidisciplinary steering committee (SC) of 13 international clinical experts led the program, supported by an extended faculty of 32 experts representing 18 countries. A modified Delphi methodology was used for decision-making and consensus-building. The SC drafted 15 clinical questions focused on patient-centered care, selection of contraception, and timing of stopping/starting contraception and disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). Statements addressing each question were drafted based on evaluation of published evidence and the experts' clinical experience. Consensus was reached if ⩾75% of respondents agreed (scoring 7-9 on a 9-point scale) with each recommendation. RESULTS: Consensus was reached on 24 of 25 proposed recommendations, including how and when to discuss contraception, types and safety of contraceptives, and how to evaluate the most appropriate contraceptive options for specific patient groups, including those with significant disability or being treated with DMTs. CONCLUSION: These expert recommendations provide the first practical, relevant, and comprehensive guidance for clinicians on the selection of contraception in PwMS.

Methods for causality assessment of idiosyncratic drug-induced liver injury.

The diagnosis of idiosyncratic drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is a challenging task due to the lack of specific features or definitive diagnostic tools. A minimum of clinical and pharmacological information is required, together with laboratory and imaging tests to exclude other causes of liver injury. Several standardized methods have been developed to support clinical judgement and establish causality assessment, the most widely used being the Roussel Uclaf Causality Assessment Method-RUCAM-and structured Expert Opinion. More recently, an evidence-based, revised RUCAM, Electronic Causality Assessment Method-RECAM-has been developed and, although still a work in progress, may replace RUCAM scoring in the future. International collaborative networks and ongoing research efforts are key to advancing biomarker qualification and validation and developing new in vitro patient-based methods that will help improve DILI diagnosis and move towards a personalized medicine approach.

Public Perspectives on Multi-Cancer Early Detection: A Qualitative Study.

BACKGROUND: Multi-cancer early detection tests (MCEDs) have the potential to identify over 50 types of cancer from a blood sample, possibly transforming cancer screening paradigms. Studies on the safety and effectiveness of MCEDs are underway, but there is a paucity of research exploring public views on MCEDs. We sought to explore public perspectives and understanding on the use of MCEDs in patient care. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional, qualitative study using one-on-one, semi-structured interviews. Residents of the United States aged 45-70 years old were recruited through a survey panel and purposively sampled to maximize racial diversity. Interviews explored understanding of MCEDs and perspectives on their use. Interviews were analyzed using thematic analysis with deductive coding and semi-quantification. RESULTS: Among 27 participants, mean age was 62 years (range 48-70) and most (63%) were non-white. Most participants had completed at least one cancer screening (89%). Participants had a positive impression of MCEDs (85%) and found the concept easy to understand (88%). They were enthusiastic about the convenience of MCEDs (30%) and thought they would improve "cancer outcomes" by looking for multiple cancers (70%) and facilitating early detection (33%). Participants emphasized the need to balance these benefits against potential harms, including inaccuracy (96%), cost (92%), test-related anxiety (56%), and lack of evidence of effectiveness (22%). Participants favored that MCEDs be delivered in primary care (93%). Participants worried that the potential benefits of MCEDs might not be equitably distributed (44%). CONCLUSIONS: Members of the US public in this study expressed an interest in using MCEDs but had concerns regarding cost, accuracy, and potential inequitable access to the tests. Findings suggest that MCEDs that are found to be safe and effective will be acceptable to patients as a part of primary care, and underscore public interest in improving this technology.

Is the bacterial genus name Rhodococcus Zopf 1891 illegitimate? Request for an Opinion.

In 2014, it was reported that the bacterial genus name Rhodococcus Zopf 1891 was illegitimate due to the priority of the cyanobacterial genus name Rhodococcus Hansgirg 1884. Since that time, the consequences of this conclusion have been largely ignored, whilst changes have been made to relevant Rules of the International Code of Nomenclature of Prokaryotes, including significant changes to the way in which the Code treats the names of members of Cyanobacteriota. Given the complexity of the nomenclatural issues, we request the opinion of the Judicial Commission of the International Committee on Systematics of Prokaryotes as to whether the genus name Rhodococcus Zopf 1891 (Approved Lists 1980) is illegitimate.

Exploration of Patient Retention in Seeking a Second Opinion: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: It is common for cancer patients to seek a second opinion for a variety of reasons. Understanding what drives patients to choose to receive treatment with their second opinion provider may uncover opportunities to improve the second opinion process. Therefore, we sought to identify the patient, disease, and treatment characteristics that were associated with second opinion retention rates in patients seeking a second surgical opinion for breast, colon, and pancreatic cancer. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study to evaluate patients who sought a second opinion within a large academic health-care system for breast, colon, and pancreatic cancer. Electronic medical records were reviewed for second opinions. Patient demographics and characteristics were collected and compared between the retained group and the nonretained groups. RESULTS: A total of 237 patients obtained second opinions for breast, colorectal, and pancreatic cancer. Patients that were offered a different treatment plan at their second opinion were more likely to be retained for systemic therapy (P = 0.009) for pancreatic cancer and any treatment for colon cancer (P = 0.003). Seeing a radiation oncologist (P = 0.007) or a plastic surgeon (P = 0.02) during the multidisciplinary consultation increased retention rates for breast cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Surgeons can better identify patients that are more likely to be retained after a second opinion by the individual patient characteristics and treatment factors. Understanding the factors that lead to retention for these three cancer types may help physicians provide the best possible resources for most patients presenting for second opinion evaluations.

Intravascular Ultrasound Use in Peripheral Arterial and Deep Venous Interventions: Multidisciplinary Expert Opinion From SCAI/AVF/AVLS/SIR/SVM/SVS.

Percutaneous revascularization is the primary strategy for treating lower extremity venous and arterial disease. Angiography is limited by its ability to accurately size vessels, precisely determine the degree of stenosis and length of lesions, characterize lesion morphology, or correctly diagnose postintervention complications. These limitations are overcome with use of intravascular ultrasound (IVUS). IVUS has demonstrated the ability to improve outcomes following percutaneous coronary intervention, and there is increasing evidence to support its benefits in the setting of peripheral vascular intervention. At this stage in its evolution, there remains a need to standardize the use and approach to peripheral vascular IVUS imaging. This manuscript represents considerations and consensus perspectives that emerged from a roundtable discussion including 15 physicians with expertise in interventional cardiology, interventional radiology, and vascular surgery, representing 6 cardiovascular specialty societies, held on February 3, 2023. The roundtable's aims were to assess the current state of lower extremity revascularization, identify knowledge gaps and need for evidence, and determine how IVUS can improve care and outcomes for patients with peripheral arterial and deep venous pathology.

The dynamic feasibility of resisting (R), accepting (A), or directing (D) ecological change.

Ecological transformations are occurring as a result of climate change, challenging traditional approaches to land management decision-making. The resist-accept-direct (RAD) framework helps managers consider how to respond to this challenge. We examined how the feasibility of the choices to resist, accept, and direct shifts in complex and dynamic ways through time. We considered 4 distinct types of social feasibility: regulatory, financial, public, and organizational. Our commentary is grounded in literature review and the examples that exist but necessarily has speculative elements because empirical evidence on this newly emerging management strategy is scarce. We expect that resist strategies will become less feasible over time as managers encounter situations where resisting is ecologically, by regulation, financially, or publicly not feasible. Similarly, we expect that as regulatory frameworks increasingly permit their use, if costs decrease, and if the public accepts them, managers will increasingly view accept and direct strategies as more viable options than they do at present. Exploring multiple types of feasibility over time allows consideration of both social and ecological trajectories of change in tandem. Our theorizing suggested that deepening the time horizon of decision-making allows one to think carefully about when one should adopt different approaches and how to combine them over time.

La viabilidad dinámica de resistir (R), aceptar (A) o dirigir (D) el cambio ecológico Resumen Las transformaciones ecológicas ocurren por el cambio climático, lo que representa un reto para los enfoques tradicionales para decidir en torno a la gestión de tierras. El marco resistir­aceptar­dirigir (RAD) ayuda a los gestores a considerar cómo responder a este reto. Analizamos cómo la viabilidad de las opciones para resistir, aceptar y dirigir cambia de manera compleja y dinámica con el tiempo. Consideramos cuatro tipos distintos de viabilidad: regulatoria, económica, pública y de organización. Nuestro comentario está basado en la revisión bibliográfica y los ejemplos que existen, pero por necesidad tiene elementos especulativos ya que la evidencia empírica sobre esta estrategia emergente de gestión es escasa. Esperamos que las estrategias de resistir se vuelvan menos viables con el tiempo conforme los gestores encuentren situaciones en las que resistir no es viable de forma ecológica, económica, pública o por regulación. Al igual esperamos que cada vez más los marcos regulatorios permitan su uso, si el costo disminuye, y si el público los acepta, los gestores verán cada vez más viables las estrategias de aceptar y dirigir que las que utilizan actualmente. La exploración de varios tipos de viabilidad a lo largo del tiempo permite considerar las trayectorias sociales y ecológicas del cambio en conjunto. Nuestra teoría sugiere que profundizar en el horizonte temporal de las decisiones permite que se analice con cuidado sobre cuando se deben adoptar enfoques diferentes y cómo combinarlos con el tiempo.