Uncovering eco-friendly design in the ancient bronze goose-and-fish lamp: an unnoticeable gap boosts ventilation.

The bronze goose-and-fish lamp exhibited in the national museum of China is a 2,000-y-old artifact once used for indoor lighting by nobility in the Western Han dynasty (206 BCE TO 25 CE). The beauty of this national treasure arises from its elegant shape vividly showing a goose catching fish with beautiful colors painted over the whole body. Beyond the artistic and historical value, what enchants people most is the eco-design concept of this oil-burning lamp. It is widely believed that the smoke generated by burning animal oil can flow into the goose belly through its long neck, then be absorbed by prefilled water in the belly, hence mitigating indoor air pollution. Although different mechanistic hypotheses such as natural convection and even the siphon effect have been proposed to qualitatively rationalize the above-claimed pollution mitigation function, due to the absence of a true scientific analysis, the definitive mechanism remains a mystery. By rigorous modeling of the nonisothermal fluid flow coupled with convection-diffusion of pollutant within and out of the lamp, we discover that it is the unnoticeable gap between goose body and lamp tray (i.e., an intrinsic feature of the multicompartmental design) that can offer definitive ventilation in the lamp. The ventilation is facilitated by natural convection due to oil burning. Adequate ventilation plays a key role in enabling pollution mitigation, as it allows pollutant to reach the goose belly, travel over and be absorbed by the water.

Impact of fossil fuel emissions on atmospheric radiocarbon and various applications of radiocarbon over this century.

Radiocarbon analyses are commonly used in a broad range of fields, including earth science, archaeology, forgery detection, isotope forensics, and physiology. Many applications are sensitive to the radiocarbon ((14)C) content of atmospheric CO2, which has varied since 1890 as a result of nuclear weapons testing, fossil fuel emissions, and CO2 cycling between atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial carbon reservoirs. Over this century, the ratio (14)C/C in atmospheric CO2 (Δ(14)CO2) will be determined by the amount of fossil fuel combustion, which decreases Δ(14)CO2 because fossil fuels have lost all (14)C from radioactive decay. Simulations of Δ(14)CO2 using the emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report, the Representative Concentration Pathways, indicate that ambitious emission reductions could sustain Δ(14)CO2 near the preindustrial level of 0‰ through 2100, whereas "business-as-usual" emissions will reduce Δ(14)CO2 to -250‰, equivalent to the depletion expected from over 2,000 y of radioactive decay. Given current emissions trends, fossil fuel emission-driven artificial "aging" of the atmosphere is likely to occur much faster and with a larger magnitude than previously expected. This finding has strong and as yet unrecognized implications for many applications of radiocarbon in various fields, and it implies that radiocarbon dating may no longer provide definitive ages for samples up to 2,000 y old.

A chronology of ratios between black smoke and PM10 and PM2.5 in the context of comparison of air pollution epidemiology concentration-response functions.

BACKGROUND: For many air pollution epidemiological studies in Europe, 'black smoke' (BS) was the only measurement available to quantify ambient particulate matter (PM), particularly for exposures prior to the mid-1990s when quantification via the PM10 and/or PM2.5 metrics was introduced. The aim of this work was to review historic BS and PM measurements to allow comparison of health concentration-response functions (CRF) derived using BS as the measure of exposure with CRFs derived using PM10 or PM2.5. METHODS: The literature was searched for quantitative information on measured ratios of BS:PM10, BS:PM2.5, and chemical composition of PM; with specific focus on the United Kingdom (UK) between 1970 and the early 2000s when BS measurements were discontinued. RESULTS: The average BS:PM10 ratio in urban background air was just below unity at the start of the 1970s, decreased rapidly to ≈ 0.7 in the mid-1970s and to ≈ 0.5 at the end of the 1970s, with continued smaller declines in the 1980s, and was within the range 0.2-0.4 by the end of the 1990s. The limited data for the BS:PM2.5 ratio suggest it equalled or exceeded unity at the start of the 1970s, declined to ≈ 0.7 by the end of the 1970s, with slower decline thereafter to a range 0.4-0.65 by the end of the 1990s. For an epidemiological study that presents a CRF BS value, the corresponding CRF PM10 value can be estimated as R BS:PM10 × CRF BS where R BS:PM10 is the BS:PM10 concentration ratio, if the toxicity of PM10 is assumed due only to the component quantified by a BS measurement. In the general case of some (but unknown) contribution of toxicity from non-BS components of PM10 then CRF PM10 > R BS:PM10 × CRF BS, with CRF PM10 exceeding CRFBS if the toxicity of the other components in PM10 is greater than the toxicity of the component to which the BS metric is sensitive. Similar analyses were applied to relationships between CRF PM2.5 and CRF BS. CONCLUSIONS: Application of this analysis to example published CRF BS values for short and long-term health effects of PM suggest health effects from other components in the PM mixture in addition to the fine black particles characterised by BS.

Ancient water bottle use and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) exposure among California Indians: a prehistoric health risk assessment.

BACKGROUND: Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are the main toxic compounds in natural bitumen, a fossil material used by modern and ancient societies around the world. The adverse health effects of PAHs on modern humans are well established, but their health impacts on past populations are unclear. It has previously been suggested that a prehistoric health decline among the native people living on the California Channel Islands may have been related to PAH exposure. Here, we assess the potential health risks of PAH exposure from the use and manufacture of bitumen-coated water bottles by ancient California Indian societies. METHODS: We replicated prehistoric bitumen-coated water bottles with traditional materials and techniques of California Indians, based on ethnographic and archaeological evidence. In order to estimate PAH exposure related to water bottle manufacture and use, we conducted controlled experiments to measure PAH contamination 1) in air during the manufacturing process and 2) in water and olive oil stored in a completed bottle for varying periods of time. Samples were analyzed with gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) for concentrations of the 16 PAHs identified by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as priority pollutants. RESULTS: Eight PAHs were detected in concentrations of 1-10 µg/m3 in air during bottle production and 50-900 ng/L in water after 2 months of storage, ranging from two-ring (naphthalene and methylnaphthalene) to four-ring (fluoranthene) molecules. All 16 PAHs analyzed were detected in olive oil after 2 days (2 to 35 µg/kg), 2 weeks (3 to 66 µg/kg), and 2 months (5 to 140 µg/kg) of storage. CONCLUSIONS: For ancient California Indians, water stored in bitumen-coated water bottles was not a significant source of PAH exposure, but production of such bottles could have resulted in harmful airborne PAH exposure.

Decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from global agricultural production: 1970-2050.

Since 1970 global agricultural production has more than doubled; contributing ~1/4 of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) burden in 2010. Food production must increase to feed our growing demands, but to address climate change, GHG emissions must decrease. Using an identity approach, we estimate and analyse past trends in GHG emission intensities from global agricultural production and land-use change and project potential future emissions. The novel Kaya-Porter identity framework deconstructs the entity of emissions from a mix of multiple sources of GHGs into attributable elements allowing not only a combined analysis of the total level of all emissions jointly with emissions per unit area and emissions per unit product. It also allows us to examine how a change in emissions from a given source contributes to the change in total emissions over time. We show that agricultural production and GHGs have been steadily decoupled over recent decades. Emissions peaked in 1991 at ~12 Pg CO2 -eq. yr(-1) and have not exceeded this since. Since 1970 GHG emissions per unit product have declined by 39% and 44% for crop- and livestock-production, respectively. Except for the energy-use component of farming, emissions from all sources have increased less than agricultural production. Our projected business-as-usual range suggests that emissions may be further decoupled by 20-55% giving absolute agricultural emissions of 8.2-14.5 Pg CO2 -eq. yr(-1) by 2050, significantly lower than many previous estimates that do not allow for decoupling. Beyond this, several additional costcompetitive mitigation measures could reduce emissions further. However, agricultural GHG emissions can only be reduced to a certain level and a simultaneous focus on other parts of the food-system is necessary to increase food security whilst reducing emissions. The identity approach presented here could be used as a methodological framework for more holistic food systems analysis.

Temperature-induced water stress in high-latitude forests in response to natural and anthropogenic warming.

The Arctic is particularly sensitive to climate change, but the independent effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration (pCO2 ) and temperature on high-latitude forests are poorly understood. Here, we present a new, annually resolved record of stable carbon isotope (δ(13) C) data determined from Larix cajanderi tree cores collected from far northeastern Siberia in order to investigate the physiological response of these trees to regional warming. The tree-ring record, which extends from 1912 through 1961 (50 years), targets early twentieth-century warming (ETCW), a natural warming event in the 1920s to 1940s that was limited to Northern hemisphere high latitudes. Our data show that net carbon isotope fractionation (Δ(13) C), decreased by 1.7‰ across the ETCW, which is consistent with increased water stress in response to climate warming and dryer soils. To investigate whether this signal is present across the northern boreal forest, we compiled published carbon isotope data from 14 high-latitude sites within Europe, Asia, and North America. The resulting dataset covered the entire twentieth century and spanned both natural ETCW and anthropogenic Late Twentieth-Century Warming (~0.7 °C per decade). After correcting for a ~1‰ increase in Δ(13) C in response to twentieth century pCO2 rise, a significant negative relationship (r = -0.53, P < 0.0001) between the average, annual Δ(13) C values and regional annual temperature anomalies is observed, suggesting a strong control of temperature on the Δ(13) C value of trees growing at high latitudes. We calculate a 17% increase in intrinsic water-use efficiency within these forests across the twentieth century, of which approximately half is attributed to a decrease in stomatal conductance in order to conserve water in response to drying conditions, with the other half being attributed to increasing pCO2 . We conclude that annual tree-ring records from northern high-latitude forests record the effects of climate warming and pCO2 rise across the twentieth century.

Historical ambient airborne asbestos concentrations in the United States - an analysis of published and unpublished literature (1960s-2000s).

Outdoor concentrations of airborne asbestos have been measured throughout the US over time. However, a thorough review and analysis of these data has not been conducted. The purpose of this study is to characterize asbestos concentrations in ambient air by environment type (urban, rural) and by decade, using measurements collected in the absence of known asbestos emission sources. A total of 17 published and unpublished studies and datasets were identified that reported the results of 2058 samples collected from the 1960s through the 2000s across the US. Most studies did not report asbestos fiber type, and data based on different analytical methods (e.g. Phase Contrast Microscopy, Transmission Electron Microscopy, etc.) were combined in the dataset; however, only fibers ≥5 µm in length were considered. For a small subset of the measurements (n = 186, 9.0%), a conversion factor was used to convert mass-based data (e.g. ng/m(3)) to count-based values (i.e. f/cc ≥5 µm). The estimated overall mean and median ambient asbestos concentrations for the 1960s through 2000s were 0.00093 f/cc and 0.00022 f/cc, respectively. Concentrations generally increased from the 1960s through the early 1980s, after which they declined considerably. While asbestos use decreased throughout the 1970s, these results indicate that ambient concentrations peaked during the early 1980s, which suggests the possible contribution of abatement or demolition activities. Lastly, ambient asbestos concentrations were higher in urban than rural settings, which is consistent with the greater use of asbestos-containing materials in more densely populated areas.

Historical emissions of HFC-23 (CHF3) in China and projections upon policy options by 2050.

Trifluoromethane (CHF3, HFC-23) is one of the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) regulated under the Kyoto Protocol with a global warming potential (GWP) of 14 800 (100-year). China's past, present, and future HFC-23 emissions are of considerable interest to researchers and policymakers involved in climate change. In this study, we compiled a comprehensive historical inventory (1980-2012) and a projection (2013-2050) of HFC-23 production, abatements, and emissions in China. Results show that HFC-23 production in China increased from 0.08 ± 0.05 Gg/yr in 1980 to 15.4 ± 2.1 Gg/yr (228 ± 31 Tg/yr CO2-eq) in 2012, while actual HFC-23 emissions reached a peak of 10.5 ± 1.8 Gg/yr (155 ± 27 Tg/y CO2-eq) in 2006, and decreased to a minimum of 7.3 ± 1.3 Gg/yr (108 ± 19 Tg/yr CO2-eq) in 2008 and 2009. Under the examined business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the cumulative emissions of HFC-23 in China over the period 2013-2050 are projected to be 609 Gg (9015 Tg CO2-eq which approximates China's 2012 CO2 emissions). Currently, China's annual HFC-23 emissions are much higher than those from the developed countries, while it is estimated that by year 2027, China's historic contribution to the global atmospheric burden of HFC-23 will have surpassed that of the developed nations under the BAU scenario.

Ice-core based assessment of historical anthropogenic heavy metal (Cd, Cu, Sb, Zn) emissions in the Soviet Union.

The development of strategies and policies aiming at the reduction of environmental exposure to air pollution requires the assessment of historical emissions. Although anthropogenic emissions from the extended territory of the Soviet Union (SU) considerably influenced concentrations of heavy metals in the Northern Hemisphere, Pb is the only metal with long-term historical emission estimates for this region available, whereas for selected other metals only single values exist. Here we present the first study assessing long-term Cd, Cu, Sb, and Zn emissions in the SU during the period 1935-1991 based on ice-core concentration records from Belukha glacier in the Siberian Altai and emission data from 12 regions in the SU for the year 1980. We show that Zn primarily emitted from the Zn production in Ust-Kamenogorsk (East Kazakhstan) dominated the SU heavy metal emission. Cd, Sb, Zn (Cu) emissions increased between 1935 and the 1970s (1980s) due to expanded non-ferrous metal production. Emissions of the four metals in the beginning of the 1990s were as low as in the 1950s, which we attribute to the economic downturn in industry, changes in technology for an increasing metal recovery from ores, the replacement of coal and oil by gas, and air pollution control.

Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) emission estimates for China: an inventory for 1990-2010 and a projection to 2020.

Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) is the most potent greenhouse gas regulated under the Kyoto Protocol, with a high global warming potential. In this study, SF6 emissions from China were inventoried for 1990-2010 and projected to 2020. Results reveal that the highest SF6 emission contribution originates from the electrical equipment sector (about 70%), followed by the magnesium production sector, the semiconductor manufacture sector and the SF6 production sector (each about 10%). Both agreements and discrepancies were found in comparisons of our estimates with previously published data. An accelerated growth rate was found for Chinese SF6 emissions during 1990-2010. Because the relative growth rate of SF6 emissions is estimated to be much higher than those of CO2, CH4, and N2O, SF6 will play an increasing role in greenhouse gas emissions in China. Global contributions from China increased rapidly from 0.9 ± 0.3% in 1990 to 22.8 ± 6.3% in 2008, making China one of the crucial contributors to the recent growth in global emissions. Under the examined Business-as-usual (BAU) Scenario, projected emissions will reach 4270 ± 1020 t in 2020, but a reduction of about 90% of the projected BAU emissions would be obtained under the Alternative Scenario.

Ombrotrophic peat bogs are not suited as natural archives to investigate the historical atmospheric deposition of perfluoroalkyl substances.

As ombrotrophic peat bogs receive only atmospheric input of contaminants, they have been identified as suitable natural archives for investigating historical depositions of airborne pollutants. To elucidate their suitability for determining the historical atmospheric contamination with perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), two peat cores were sampled at Mer Bleue, a bog located close to Ottawa, Canada. Peat cores were segmented, dried, and analyzed in duplicate for 25 PFASs (5 perfluororalkyl sulfonates (PFSAs), 13 perfluoroalkyl carboxylates (PFCAs), 7 perfluororalkyl sulfonamido substances). Peat samples were extracted by ultrasonication, cleaned up using a QuEChERS method, and PFASs were measured by HPLC-MS/MS. Twelve PFCAs and PFSAs were detected regularly in peat samples with perfluorooctane sulfonate (85-655 ng kg(-1)), perfluorooctanoate (150-390 ng kg(-1)), and perfluorononanoate (45-320 ng kg(-1)) at highest concentrations. Because of post depositional relocation processes within the peat cores, true or unbiased deposition fluxes (i.e., not affected by post depositional changes) could not be calculated. Apparent or biased deposition rates (i.e., affected by post depositional changes) were lower than measured/calculated deposition rates for similar urban or near-urban sites. Compared to PFAS production, PFAS concentration and deposition maxima were shifted about 30 years toward the past and some analytes were detected even in the oldest segments from the beginning of the 20th century. This was attributed to PFAS mobility in the peat profile. Considerable differences were observed between both peat cores and different PFASs. Overall, this study demonstrates that ombrotrophic bogs are not suited natural archives to provide authentic and reliable temporal trend data of historical atmospheric PFAS deposition.

Historical carbon footprinting and implications for sustainability planning: a case study of the Pittsburgh region.

This study estimates fossil-based CO(2) emissions and energy use from 1900-2000 for Allegheny County, PA. Total energy use and emissions increased from 1900 to 1970, reflecting the significant industrial, economic, and population growth that occurred in Allegheny County. From 1970 to 2000, Allegheny County experienced a 30% decrease in total emissions and energy use from peak values, primarily because of a decline in industrial activity (40% decrease in value added) and the loss of a quarter of its population. Despite these dramatic economic and demographic transitions, per capita emissions remained stable from 1970 to 2000, buoyed by relatively stable or slightly increasing emissions in the commercial and transportation sectors. Allegheny County's history suggests the scale of change needed to achieve local emissions reductions may be significant; given years of major technological, economic, and demographic changes, per capita emissions in 1940 were nearly the same in 2000. Most local governments are planning emissions reductions rates that exceed 1% per year, which deviate significantly from historical trends. Our results suggest additional resources and improved planning paradigms are likely necessary to achieve significant emissions reductions, especially for areas where emissions are still increasing.

Evidence of global-scale As, Mo, Sb, and Tl atmospheric pollution in the antarctic snow.

We report the first comprehensive and reliable time series for As, Mo, Sb, and Tl in the snowpack from Dome Fuji in the central East Antarctic Plateau. Our results show significant enrichment of these elements due to either anthropogenic activities or large volcanic eruptions during the past 50 years. With respect to the values reported from 1960 to 1964, we observed the maximum increases in crustal enrichment factors (EFs) for As (a factor of ~15), Mo (~4), Sb (~4), and Tl (~2) during the period between the 1970s and 1990s, reflecting the global dispersion of anthropogenic pollutants of these elements, even to the most remote areas on Earth. Such enrichments are likely related to emissions of trace elements from nonferrous metal smelting and fossil fuel combustion processes in South America, especially in Chile. A drastic decrease in the As concentration and its EF values was observed after the year 2000 in response to the introduction of environmental regulations in the 1990s to reduce As emissions from the copper industry, primarily in Chile. The observed decrease suggests that governmental regulations for pollution control are effective in reducing air pollution at both the regional and global level.

Health effects research and regulation of diesel exhaust: an historical overview focused on lung cancer risk.

The mutagenicity of organic solvent extracts from diesel exhaust particulate (DEP), first noted more than 55 years ago, initiated an avalanche of diesel exhaust (DE) health effects research that now totals more than 6000 published studies. Despite an extensive body of results, scientific debate continues regarding the nature of the lung cancer risk posed by inhalation of occupational and environmental DE, with much of the debate focused on DEP. Decades of scientific scrutiny and increasingly stringent regulation have resulted in major advances in diesel engine technologies. The changed particulate matter (PM) emissions in "New Technology Diesel Exhaust (NTDE)" from today's modern low-emission, advanced-technology on-road heavy-duty diesel engines now resemble the PM emissions in contemporary gasoline engine exhaust (GEE) and compressed natural gas engine exhaust more than those in the "traditional diesel exhaust" (TDE) characteristic of older diesel engines. Even with the continued publication of epidemiologic analyses of TDE-exposed populations, this database remains characterized by findings of small increased lung cancer risks and inconsistent evidence of exposure-response trends, both within occupational cohorts and across occupational groups considered to have markedly different exposures (e.g. truckers versus railroad shopworkers versus underground miners). The recently published National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH)-National Cancer Institute (NCI) epidemiologic studies of miners provide some of the strongest findings to date regarding a DE-lung cancer association, but some inconsistent exposure-response findings and possible effects of bias and exposure misclassification raise questions regarding their interpretation. Laboratory animal studies are negative for lung tumors in all species, except for rats under lifetime TDE-exposure conditions with durations and concentrations that lead to "lung overload." The species specificity of the rat lung response to overload, and its occurrence with other particle types, is now well-understood. It is thus generally accepted that the rat bioassay for inhaled particles under conditions of lung overload is not predictive of human lung cancer hazard. Overall, despite an abundance of epidemiologic and experimental data, there remain questions as to whether TDE exposure causes increased lung cancers in humans. An abundance of emissions characterization data, as well as preliminary toxicological data, support NTDE as being toxicologically distinct from TDE. Currently, neither epidemiologic data nor animal bioassay data yet exist that directly bear on NTDE carcinogenic potential. A chronic bioassay of NTDE currently in progress will provide data on whether NTDE poses a carcinogenic hazard, but based on the significant reductions in PM mass emissions and the major changes in PM composition, it has been hypothesized that NTDE has a low carcinogenic potential. When the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) reevaluates DE (along with GEE and nitroarenes) in June 2012, it will be the first authoritative body to assess DE carcinogenic health hazards since the emergence of NTDE and the accumulation of data differentiating NTDE from TDE.

Reflections on the state of research: indoor environmental quality.

UNLABELLED: More than 30 years after the First International Indoor Climate Symposium, ten researchers from the USA, Slovakia, Sweden, and Denmark gathered to review the current status of indoor environmental research. We initiated our review with discussions during the 1-day meeting and followed that with parallel research and writing efforts culminating with internal review and revision cycles. In this paper, we present our choices for the most important research findings on indoor environmental quality from the past three decades followed by a discussion of the most important research questions in our field today. We then continue with a discussion on whether there are research areas for which we can 'close the book' and say that we already know what is needed. Finally, we discuss whether we can maintain our identity in the future or it is time to team up with new partners. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: In the early years of this field, the accumulated knowledge was small and it was possible for any researcher to acquire a complete understanding. To do so has become impossible today as what we know has grown to exceed the learning capacity of any person. These circumstances challenge us to work collectively to synthesize what we do know and to define clearly what remains to be learned. If we fail to do these things well, we risk repeating research without memory, an inefficiency that we cannot afford.

Impact of air pollution control measures and weather conditions on asthma during the 2008 Summer Olympic Games in Beijing.

The alternative transportation strategy implemented during the 2008 Summer Olympic Games in Beijing provided an opportunity to study the impact of the control measures and weather conditions on air quality and asthma morbidity. An ecological study compared the 41 days of the Olympic Games (8 August-17 September 2008) to a baseline period (1-30 June). Also, in order to emphasize the impact of weather conditions on air quality, a pollution linking meteorological index (Plam) was introduced to represent the air pollution meteorological condition. Our study showed that the average number of outpatient visits for asthma was 12.5 per day at baseline and 7.3 per day during the Olympics-a 41.6% overall decrease. Compared with the baseline, the Games were associated with a significant reduction in asthma visits (RR 0.58, 95%CI: 0.52-0.65). At 16.5 visits per day, asthma visits were also significantly higher, during the pre-Olympic period (RR 1.32, 95% CI: 1.15-1.52). The study also showed that the RR of asthma events on a given day, as well as the average daily peak ozone concentration during the preceding 48-72 h, increased at cumulative ozone concentrations of 70 to 100 ppb and 100 ppb or more compared with ozone concentrations of less than 70 ppb (P < 0.05). We concluded that along with "good" weather conditions, efforts to reduce traffic congestion in Beijing during the Olympic Games were associated with a prolonged reduction in air pollution and significantly lower rates of adult asthma events. These data provide support for efforts to reduce air pollution and improve health via reductions in motor vehicle traffic.

Intensity-based climate change policies in Canada.

To reduce greenhouse gas emissions from large industries the Canadian government proposed using a tradable emissions performance standard approach, where the intensity of emissions, rather than the absolute level, is regulated. Unlike a cap and trade system, an emissions performance standard does not guarantee a certain overall level of emission reductions, a fact that has led to significant criticism. However, because of the dynamics of performance standards, they may reduce concerns over reductions in international competitiveness in cases where a country has climate policies that are more aggressive than those of some of its trade partners. Likewise, a performance standard may mesh more efficiently with existing taxes and therefore cause less overall economic impact than an absolute cap and trade system. This paper considers the theoretical arguments for and against such a performance standard system and evaluates it in comparison to a cap and trade system using a dynamic general equilibrium model applied to Canada.