Machine learning for subtype definition and risk prediction in heart failure, acute coronary syndromes and atrial fibrillation: systematic review of validity and clinical utility.

BACKGROUND: Machine learning (ML) is increasingly used in research for subtype definition and risk prediction, particularly in cardiovascular diseases. No existing ML models are routinely used for cardiovascular disease management, and their phase of clinical utility is unknown, partly due to a lack of clear criteria. We evaluated ML for subtype definition and risk prediction in heart failure (HF), acute coronary syndromes (ACS) and atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS: For ML studies of subtype definition and risk prediction, we conducted a systematic review in HF, ACS and AF, using PubMed, MEDLINE and Web of Science from January 2000 until December 2019. By adapting published criteria for diagnostic and prognostic studies, we developed a seven-domain, ML-specific checklist. RESULTS: Of 5918 studies identified, 97 were included. Across studies for subtype definition (n = 40) and risk prediction (n = 57), there was variation in data source, population size (median 606 and median 6769), clinical setting (outpatient, inpatient, different departments), number of covariates (median 19 and median 48) and ML methods. All studies were single disease, most were North American (n = 61/97) and only 14 studies combined definition and risk prediction. Subtype definition and risk prediction studies respectively had limitations in development (e.g. 15.0% and 78.9% of studies related to patient benefit; 15.0% and 15.8% had low patient selection bias), validation (12.5% and 5.3% externally validated) and impact (32.5% and 91.2% improved outcome prediction; no effectiveness or cost-effectiveness evaluations). CONCLUSIONS: Studies of ML in HF, ACS and AF are limited by number and type of included covariates, ML methods, population size, country, clinical setting and focus on single diseases, not overlap or multimorbidity. Clinical utility and implementation rely on improvements in development, validation and impact, facilitated by simple checklists. We provide clear steps prior to safe implementation of machine learning in clinical practice for cardiovascular diseases and other disease areas.

Leveraging Human Genetics to Estimate Clinical Risk Reductions Achievable by Inhibiting Factor XI.

Background and Purpose- Coagulation factor XI (FXI) is a novel target for antithrombotic therapy addressed by various therapeutic modalities currently in clinical development. The expected magnitude of thrombotic event reduction mediated by targeting FXI is unclear. Methods- We analyzed the association of 2 common genetic variants, which alter levels of FXI, with a range of human phenotypes. We combined variants into a genetic score standardized to a 30% increase in relative activated partial thromboplastin time, equivalent to what can be achieved with pharmacological FXI reduction. Using data from 371 695 participants in the United Kingdom Biobank and 2 large-scale genome-wide association studies, we examined the effect of this FXI score on thrombotic and bleeding end points. Results- Genetic disposition to lower FXI levels was associated with reduced risks of venous thrombosis (odds ratio, 95% CI; P value; odds ratio=0.1, 0.07-0.14; P=3×10-43) and ischemic stroke (odds ratio=0.47, 0.36-0.61; P=2×10-8) but not with major bleeding (odds ratio=0.7, 0.45-1.04; P=0.0739). The observed relative risk reductions were consistent within a range of subgroups that were at high risk for thrombosis. Consistently, we observed higher absolute risk reductions conferred by genetically lower FXI levels in high-risk subgroups, such as patients with atrial fibrillation. Conclusions- Human genetic data suggest that pharmacological inhibition of FXI may achieve considerable reductions in ischemic stroke risk without clear evidence for an associated risk of major bleeding. The quantitative framework developed can be used to support the estimation of achievable risk reductions with pharmacological modulation of FXI.

Neutrophil-mediated IL-6 receptor trans-signaling and the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma.

The Asp358Ala variant in the interleukin-6 receptor (IL-6R) gene has been implicated in asthma, autoimmune and cardiovascular disorders, but its role in other respiratory conditions such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has not been investigated. The aims of this study were to evaluate whether there is an association between Asp358Ala and COPD or asthma risk, and to explore the role of the Asp358Ala variant in sIL-6R shedding from neutrophils and its pro-inflammatory effects in the lung. We undertook logistic regression using data from the UK Biobank and the ECLIPSE COPD cohort. Results were meta-analyzed with summary data from a further three COPD cohorts (7,519 total cases and 35,653 total controls), showing no association between Asp358Ala and COPD (OR = 1.02 [95% CI: 0.96, 1.07]). Data from the UK Biobank showed a positive association between the Asp358Ala variant and atopic asthma (OR = 1.07 [1.01, 1.13]). In a series of in vitro studies using blood samples from 37 participants, we found that shedding of sIL-6R from neutrophils was greater in carriers of the Asp358Ala minor allele than in non-carriers. Human pulmonary artery endothelial cells cultured with serum from homozygous carriers showed an increase in MCP-1 release in carriers of the minor allele, with the difference eliminated upon addition of tocilizumab. In conclusion, there is evidence that neutrophils may be an important source of sIL-6R in the lungs, and the Asp358Ala variant may have pro-inflammatory effects in lung cells. However, we were unable to identify evidence for an association between Asp358Ala and COPD.

Functional IL6R 358Ala allele impairs classical IL-6 receptor signaling and influences risk of diverse inflammatory diseases.

Inflammation, which is directly regulated by interleukin-6 (IL-6) signaling, is implicated in the etiology of several chronic diseases. Although a common, non-synonymous variant in the IL-6 receptor gene (IL6R Asp358Ala; rs2228145 A>C) is associated with the risk of several common diseases, with the 358Ala allele conferring protection from coronary heart disease (CHD), rheumatoid arthritis (RA), atrial fibrillation (AF), abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), and increased susceptibility to asthma, the variant's effect on IL-6 signaling is not known. Here we provide evidence for the association of this non-synonymous variant with the risk of type 1 diabetes (T1D) in two independent populations and confirm that rs2228145 is the major determinant of the concentration of circulating soluble IL-6R (sIL-6R) levels (34.6% increase in sIL-6R per copy of the minor allele 358Ala; rs2228145 [C]). To further investigate the molecular mechanism of this variant, we analyzed expression of IL-6R in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) in 128 volunteers from the Cambridge BioResource. We demonstrate that, although 358Ala increases transcription of the soluble IL6R isoform (P = 8.3×10⁻²²) and not the membrane-bound isoform, 358Ala reduces surface expression of IL-6R on CD4+ T cells and monocytes (up to 28% reduction per allele; P≤5.6×10⁻²²). Importantly, reduced expression of membrane-bound IL-6R resulted in impaired IL-6 responsiveness, as measured by decreased phosphorylation of the transcription factors STAT3 and STAT1 following stimulation with IL-6 (P≤5.2×10⁻7). Our findings elucidate the regulation of IL-6 signaling by IL-6R, which is causally relevant to several complex diseases, identify mechanisms for new approaches to target the IL-6/IL-6R axis, and anticipate differences in treatment response to IL-6 therapies based on this common IL6R variant.

Inflammatory cytokines and risk of coronary heart disease: new prospective study and updated meta-analysis.

AIMS: Because low-grade inflammation may play a role in the pathogenesis of coronary heart disease (CHD), and pro-inflammatory cytokines govern inflammatory cascades, this study aimed to assess the associations of several pro-inflammatory cytokines and CHD risk in a new prospective study, including meta-analysis of prospective studies. METHODS AND RESULTS: Interleukin-6 (IL-6), IL-18, matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9), soluble CD40 ligand (sCD40L), and tumour necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) were measured at baseline in a case-cohort study of 1514 participants and 833 incident CHD events within population-based prospective cohorts at the Danish Research Centre for Prevention and Health. Age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for CHD per 1-SD higher log-transformed baseline levels were: 1.37 (95% CI: 1.21-1.54) for IL-6, 1.26 (1.11-1.44) for IL-18, 1.30 (1.16-1.46) for MMP-9, 1.01 (0.89-1.15) for sCD40L, and 1.13 (1.01-1.27) for TNF-α. Multivariable adjustment for conventional vascular risk factors attenuated the HRs to: 1.26 (1.08-1.46) for IL-6, 1.12 (0.95-1.31) for IL-18, 1.21 (1.05-1.39) for MMP-9, 0.93 (0.78-1.11) for sCD40L, and 1.14 (1.00-1.31) for TNF-α. In meta-analysis of up to 29 population-based prospective studies, adjusted relative risks for non-fatal MI or CHD death per 1-SD higher levels were: 1.25 (1.19-1.32) for IL-6; 1.13 (1.05-1.20) for IL-18; 1.07 (0.97-1.19) for MMP-9; 1.07 (0.95-1.21) for sCD40L; and 1.17 (1.09-1.25) for TNF-α. CONCLUSIONS: Several different pro-inflammatory cytokines are each associated with CHD risk independent of conventional risk factors and in an approximately log-linear manner. The findings lend support to the inflammation hypothesis in vascular disease, but further studies are needed to assess causality.

Association of Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity With Mortality.

IMPORTANCE: The prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is increasing. OBJECTIVE: To estimate reductions in life expectancy associated with cardiometabolic multimorbidity. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (689,300 participants; 91 cohorts; years of baseline surveys: 1960-2007; latest mortality follow-up: April 2013; 128,843 deaths). The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were compared with those from the UK Biobank (499,808 participants; years of baseline surveys: 2006-2010; latest mortality follow-up: November 2013; 7995 deaths). Cumulative survival was estimated by applying calculated age-specific HRs for mortality to contemporary US age-specific death rates. EXPOSURES: A history of 2 or more of the following: diabetes mellitus, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: All-cause mortality and estimated reductions in life expectancy. RESULTS: In participants in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration without a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI at baseline (reference group), the all-cause mortality rate adjusted to the age of 60 years was 6.8 per 1000 person-years. Mortality rates per 1000 person-years were 15.6 in participants with a history of diabetes, 16.1 in those with stroke, 16.8 in those with MI, 32.0 in those with both diabetes and MI, 32.5 in those with both diabetes and stroke, 32.8 in those with both stroke and MI, and 59.5 in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. Compared with the reference group, the HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8-2.0) in participants with a history of diabetes, 2.1 (95% CI, 2.0-2.2) in those with stroke, 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.2) in those with MI, 3.7 (95% CI, 3.3-4.1) in those with both diabetes and MI, 3.8 (95% CI, 3.5-4.2) in those with both diabetes and stroke, 3.5 (95% CI, 3.1-4.0) in those with both stroke and MI, and 6.9 (95% CI, 5.7-8.3) in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were similar to those from the more recently recruited UK Biobank. The HRs were little changed after further adjustment for markers of established intermediate pathways (eg, levels of lipids and blood pressure) and lifestyle factors (eg, smoking, diet). At the age of 60 years, a history of any 2 of these conditions was associated with 12 years of reduced life expectancy and a history of all 3 of these conditions was associated with 15 years of reduced life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Mortality associated with a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI was similar for each condition. Because any combination of these conditions was associated with multiplicative mortality risk, life expectancy was substantially lower in people with multimorbidity.

Interleukin-6 receptor pathways in coronary heart disease: a collaborative meta-analysis of 82 studies.

BACKGROUND: Persistent inflammation has been proposed to contribute to various stages in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease. Interleukin-6 receptor (IL6R) signalling propagates downstream inflammation cascades. To assess whether this pathway is causally relevant to coronary heart disease, we studied a functional genetic variant known to affect IL6R signalling. METHODS: In a collaborative meta-analysis, we studied Asp358Ala (rs2228145) in IL6R in relation to a panel of conventional risk factors and inflammation biomarkers in 125,222 participants. We also compared the frequency of Asp358Ala in 51,441 patients with coronary heart disease and in 136,226 controls. To gain insight into possible mechanisms, we assessed Asp358Ala in relation to localised gene expression and to postlipopolysaccharide stimulation of interleukin 6. FINDINGS: The minor allele frequency of Asp358Ala was 39%. Asp358Ala was not associated with lipid concentrations, blood pressure, adiposity, dysglycaemia, or smoking (p value for association per minor allele ≥0·04 for each). By contrast, for every copy of 358Ala inherited, mean concentration of IL6R increased by 34·3% (95% CI 30·4-38·2) and of interleukin 6 by 14·6% (10·7-18·4), and mean concentration of C-reactive protein was reduced by 7·5% (5·9-9·1) and of fibrinogen by 1·0% (0·7-1·3). For every copy of 358Ala inherited, risk of coronary heart disease was reduced by 3·4% (1·8-5·0). Asp358Ala was not related to IL6R mRNA levels or interleukin-6 production in monocytes. INTERPRETATION: Large-scale human genetic and biomarker data are consistent with a causal association between IL6R-related pathways and coronary heart disease. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation; UK Medical Research Council; UK National Institute of Health Research, Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre; BUPA Foundation.

Prevalence, phenotypic characteristics and prognostic role of apparent treatment resistant hypertension in the German Chronic Kidney Disease (GCKD) study.

Treatment resistant hypertension (TRH) appears of particular relevance in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, causes and consequences of TRH in CKD patients remain incompletely understood. Therefore, we analyzed the prevalence of apparent TRH (aTRH), and phenotypic characteristics and prognosis associated with aTRH among participants of the German Chronic Kidney Disease (GCKD) study. As insufficient medication adherence has been shown to be a frequent cause of pseudoresistance, we also assessed treatment adherence. Study participants were classified as having aTRH, controlled hypertension and uncontrolled hypertension based on study visit blood pressure and self-reported medication intake. Drug adherence was assessed by comparing self-reported antihypertensive medication with detectable urinary drug metabolites measured by mass spectroscopy. Out of 4901 individuals included in this study, 38% were classified as having aTRH. Male sex, older age, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), higher body mass index (BMI), higher urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) and presence of diabetes mellitus were independently associated with higher prevalence of aTRH in a multivariable adjusted regression model. Patients classified as aTRH had higher risk for major adverse cardiovascular events and worsening of kidney disease compared to patients with no aTRH after multivariate adjustment for potential confounders. There was a high agreement between self-reported medication and detectable urinary drug metabolites. In conclusion, in a cohort of Caucasian patients with moderately severe CKD, aTRH was highly prevalent and, in most cases, likely not caused by low medication adherence. Furthermore, aTRH was linked to cardio-renal endpoints, emphasizing the need for improved management.

Environmental and genetic predictors of human cardiovascular ageing.

Cardiovascular ageing is a process that begins early in life and leads to a progressive change in structure and decline in function due to accumulated damage across diverse cell types, tissues and organs contributing to multi-morbidity. Damaging biophysical, metabolic and immunological factors exceed endogenous repair mechanisms resulting in a pro-fibrotic state, cellular senescence and end-organ damage, however the genetic architecture of cardiovascular ageing is not known. Here we use machine learning approaches to quantify cardiovascular age from image-derived traits of vascular function, cardiac motion and myocardial fibrosis, as well as conduction traits from electrocardiograms, in 39,559 participants of UK Biobank. Cardiovascular ageing is found to be significantly associated with common or rare variants in genes regulating sarcomere homeostasis, myocardial immunomodulation, and tissue responses to biophysical stress. Ageing is accelerated by cardiometabolic risk factors and we also identify prescribed medications that are potential modifiers of ageing. Through large-scale modelling of ageing across multiple traits our results reveal insights into the mechanisms driving premature cardiovascular ageing and reveal potential molecular targets to attenuate age-related processes.

Combined targeting of lentiviral vectors and positioning of transduced cells by magnetic nanoparticles.

Targeting of viral vectors is a major challenge for in vivo gene delivery, especially after intravascular application. In addition, targeting of the endothelium itself would be of importance for gene-based therapies of vascular disease. Here, we used magnetic nanoparticles (MNPs) to combine cell transduction and positioning in the vascular system under clinically relevant, nonpermissive conditions, including hydrodynamic forces and hypothermia. The use of MNPs enhanced transduction efficiency of endothelial cells and enabled direct endothelial targeting of lentiviral vectors (LVs) by magnetic force, even in perfused vessels. In addition, application of external magnetic fields to mice significantly changed LV/MNP biodistribution in vivo. LV/MNP-transduced cells exhibited superparamagnetic behavior as measured by magnetorelaxometry, and they were efficiently retained by magnetic fields. The magnetic interactions were strong enough to position MNP-containing endothelial cells at the intima of vessels under physiological flow conditions. Importantly, magnetic positioning of MNP-labeled cells was also achieved in vivo in an injury model of the mouse carotid artery. Intravascular gene targeting can be combined with positioning of the transduced cells via nanomagnetic particles, thereby combining gene- and cell-based therapies.

Investigation into the Health Effects of Reduced Chymase Function Using Predicted Loss-of-Function Mutations in CMA1.

Tissue remodelling and fibrosis which occur in response to injury play a central role in the development of many diseases. Chymase is a key enzyme believed to mediate these pathological processes. As such, chymase inhibitors have been under active development for the treatment of a number of conditions. To investigate the impact of reduced chymase function, we constructed a genetic score from two pLoF mutations in the gene encoding chymase and tested its association with diseases and biomarkers. Our study found no association between the genetically-predicted reduced chymase function score and heart failure, chronic kidney disease or other predefined conditions. We additionally found no association of the score with any physical measurements or biomarkers. Our results provide no evidence in support of chymase inhibition as a novel therapeutic strategy for the treatment or prevention of heart failure, chronic kidney disease or major cardiovascular events, as previously proposed.

Genetic and environmental determinants of diastolic heart function.

Diastole is the sequence of physiological events that occur in the heart during ventricular filling and principally depends on myocardial relaxation and chamber stiffness. Abnormal diastolic function is related to many cardiovascular disease processes and is predictive of health outcomes, but its genetic architecture is largely unknown. Here, we use machine learning cardiac motion analysis to measure diastolic functional traits in 39,559 participants of the UK Biobank and perform a genome-wide association study. We identified 9 significant, independent loci near genes that are associated with maintaining sarcomeric function under biomechanical stress and genes implicated in the development of cardiomyopathy. Age, sex and diabetes were independent predictors of diastolic function and we found a causal relationship between genetically-determined ventricular stiffness and incident heart failure. Our results provide insights into the genetic and environmental factors influencing diastolic function that are relevant for identifying causal relationships and potential tractable targets.

Rare genetic variants affecting urine metabolite levels link population variation to inborn errors of metabolism.

Metabolite levels in urine may provide insights into genetic mechanisms shaping their related pathways. We therefore investigate the cumulative contribution of rare, exonic genetic variants on urine levels of 1487 metabolites and 53,714 metabolite ratios among 4864 GCKD study participants. Here we report the detection of 128 significant associations involving 30 unique genes, 16 of which are known to underlie inborn errors of metabolism. The 30 genes are strongly enriched for shared expression in liver and kidney (odds ratio = 65, p-FDR = 3e-7), with hepatocytes and proximal tubule cells as driving cell types. Use of UK Biobank whole-exome sequencing data links genes to diseases connected to the identified metabolites. In silico constraint-based modeling of gene knockouts in a virtual whole-body, organ-resolved metabolic human correctly predicts the observed direction of metabolite changes, highlighting the potential of linking population genetics to modeling. Our study implicates candidate variants and genes for inborn errors of metabolism.

The role of machine learning in clinical research: transforming the future of evidence generation.

BACKGROUND: Interest in the application of machine learning (ML) to the design, conduct, and analysis of clinical trials has grown, but the evidence base for such applications has not been surveyed. This manuscript reviews the proceedings of a multi-stakeholder conference to discuss the current and future state of ML for clinical research. Key areas of clinical trial methodology in which ML holds particular promise and priority areas for further investigation are presented alongside a narrative review of evidence supporting the use of ML across the clinical trial spectrum. RESULTS: Conference attendees included stakeholders, such as biomedical and ML researchers, representatives from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), artificial intelligence technology and data analytics companies, non-profit organizations, patient advocacy groups, and pharmaceutical companies. ML contributions to clinical research were highlighted in the pre-trial phase, cohort selection and participant management, and data collection and analysis. A particular focus was paid to the operational and philosophical barriers to ML in clinical research. Peer-reviewed evidence was noted to be lacking in several areas. CONCLUSIONS: ML holds great promise for improving the efficiency and quality of clinical research, but substantial barriers remain, the surmounting of which will require addressing significant gaps in evidence.

Mendelian randomization for studying the effects of perturbing drug targets.

Drugs whose targets have genetic evidence to support efficacy and safety are more likely to be approved after clinical development. In this paper, we provide an overview of how natural sequence variation in the genes that encode drug targets can be used in Mendelian randomization analyses to offer insight into mechanism-based efficacy and adverse effects. Large databases of summary level genetic association data are increasingly available and can be leveraged to identify and validate variants that serve as proxies for drug target perturbation. As with all empirical research, Mendelian randomization has limitations including genetic confounding, its consideration of lifelong effects, and issues related to heterogeneity across different tissues and populations. When appropriately applied, Mendelian randomization provides a useful empirical framework for using population level data to improve the success rates of the drug development pipeline.

Genetic drug target validation using Mendelian randomisation.

Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis is an important tool to elucidate the causal relevance of environmental and biological risk factors for disease. However, causal inference is undermined if genetic variants used to instrument a risk factor also influence alternative disease-pathways (horizontal pleiotropy). Here we report how the 'no horizontal pleiotropy assumption' is strengthened when proteins are the risk factors of interest. Proteins are typically the proximal effectors of biological processes encoded in the genome. Moreover, proteins are the targets of most medicines, so MR studies of drug targets are becoming a fundamental tool in drug development. To enable such studies, we introduce a mathematical framework that contrasts MR analysis of proteins with that of risk factors located more distally in the causal chain from gene to disease. We illustrate key model decisions and introduce an analytical framework for maximising power and evaluating the robustness of analyses.

Differential regulation of protein subdomain activity with caged bivalent ligands.

Subtle change: Spatiotemporal modulation of individual protein subdomains with light as the trigger signal becomes possible by using bivalent aptamers and introducing photolabile "caging groups" to switch individual aptamer modules ON or OFF differentially. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to show that it is possible to modulate individual domain activity in aptamers, and thus also domain activity in proteins, with light.

Genetic effects on promoter usage are highly context-specific and contribute to complex traits.

Genetic variants regulating RNA splicing and transcript usage have been implicated in both common and rare diseases. Although transcript usage quantitative trait loci (tuQTLs) have been mapped across multiple cell types and contexts, it is challenging to distinguish between the main molecular mechanisms controlling transcript usage: promoter choice, splicing and 3' end choice. Here, we analysed RNA-seq data from human macrophages exposed to three inflammatory and one metabolic stimulus. In addition to conventional gene-level and transcript-level analyses, we also directly quantified promoter usage, splicing and 3' end usage. We found that promoters, splicing and 3' ends were predominantly controlled by independent genetic variants enriched in distinct genomic features. Promoter usage QTLs were also 50% more likely to be context-specific than other tuQTLs and constituted 25% of the transcript-level colocalisations with complex traits. Thus, promoter usage might be an underappreciated molecular mechanism mediating complex trait associations in a context-specific manner.

Interleukin-6 Receptor Signaling and Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Growth Rates.

BACKGROUND: The Asp358Ala variant (rs2228145; A>C) in the IL (interleukin)-6 receptor ( IL6R) gene has been implicated in the development of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs), but its effect on AAA growth over time is not known. We aimed to investigate the clinical association between the IL6R-Asp358Ala variant and AAA growth and to assess the effect of blocking the IL-6 signaling pathway in mouse models of aortic aneurysm rupture or dissection. METHODS: Using data from 2863 participants with AAA from 9 prospective cohorts, age- and sex-adjusted mixed-effects linear regression models were used to estimate the association between the IL6R-Asp358Ala variant and annual change in AAA diameter (mm/y). In a series of complementary randomized trials in mice, the effect of blocking the IL-6 signaling pathways was assessed on plasma biomarkers, systolic blood pressure, aneurysm diameter, and time to aortic rupture and death. RESULTS: After adjusting for age and sex, baseline aneurysm size was 0.55 mm (95% CI, 0.13-0.98 mm) smaller per copy of the minor allele [C] of the Asp358Ala variant. Change in AAA growth was -0.06 mm per year (-0.18 to 0.06) per copy of the minor allele; a result that was not statistically significant. Although all available worldwide data were used, the genetic analyses were not powered for an effect size as small as that observed. In 2 mouse models of AAA, selective blockage of the IL-6 trans-signaling pathway, but not combined blockage of both, the classical and trans-signaling pathways, was associated with improved survival ( P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our proof-of-principle data are compatible with the concept that IL-6 trans-signaling is relevant to AAA growth, encouraging larger-scale evaluation of this hypothesis.

Association of LPA Variants With Risk of Coronary Disease and the Implications for Lipoprotein(a)-Lowering Therapies: A Mendelian Randomization Analysis.

Importance: Human genetic studies have indicated that plasma lipoprotein(a) (Lp[a]) is causally associated with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), but randomized trials of several therapies that reduce Lp(a) levels by 25% to 35% have not provided any evidence that lowering Lp(a) level reduces CHD risk. Objective: To estimate the magnitude of the change in plasma Lp(a) levels needed to have the same evidence of an association with CHD risk as a 38.67-mg/dL (ie, 1-mmol/L) change in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) level, a change that has been shown to produce a clinically meaningful reduction in the risk of CHD. Design, Setting, and Participants: A mendelian randomization analysis was conducted using individual participant data from 5 studies and with external validation using summarized data from 48 studies. Population-based prospective cohort and case-control studies featured 20 793 individuals with CHD and 27 540 controls with individual participant data, whereas summarized data included 62 240 patients with CHD and 127 299 controls. Data were analyzed from November 2016 to March 2018. Exposures: Genetic LPA score and plasma Lp(a) mass concentration. Main Outcomes and Measures: Coronary heart disease. Results: Of the included study participants, 53% were men, all were of white European ancestry, and the mean age was 57.5 years. The association of genetically predicted Lp(a) with CHD risk was linearly proportional to the absolute change in Lp(a) concentration. A 10-mg/dL lower genetically predicted Lp(a) concentration was associated with a 5.8% lower CHD risk (odds ratio [OR], 0.942; 95% CI, 0.933-0.951; P = 3 × 10-37), whereas a 10-mg/dL lower genetically predicted LDL-C level estimated using an LDL-C genetic score was associated with a 14.5% lower CHD risk (OR, 0.855; 95% CI, 0.818-0.893; P = 2 × 10-12). Thus, a 101.5-mg/dL change (95% CI, 71.0-137.0) in Lp(a) concentration had the same association with CHD risk as a 38.67-mg/dL change in LDL-C level. The association of genetically predicted Lp(a) concentration with CHD risk appeared to be independent of changes in LDL-C level owing to genetic variants that mimic the relationship of statins, PCSK9 inhibitors, and ezetimibe with CHD risk. Conclusions and Relevance: The clinical benefit of lowering Lp(a) is likely to be proportional to the absolute reduction in Lp(a) concentration. Large absolute reductions in Lp(a) of approximately 100 mg/dL may be required to produce a clinically meaningful reduction in the risk of CHD similar in magnitude to what can be achieved by lowering LDL-C level by 38.67 mg/dL (ie, 1 mmol/L).