Tumor cell-released kynurenine biases MEP differentiation into megakaryocytes in individuals with cancer by activating AhR-RUNX1.

Tumor-derived factors are thought to regulate thrombocytosis and erythrocytopenia in individuals with cancer; however, such factors have not yet been identified. Here we show that tumor cell-released kynurenine (Kyn) biases megakaryocytic-erythroid progenitor cell (MEP) differentiation into megakaryocytes in individuals with cancer by activating the aryl hydrocarbon receptor-Runt-related transcription factor 1 (AhR-RUNX1) axis. During tumor growth, large amounts of Kyn from tumor cells are released into the periphery, where they are taken up by MEPs via the transporter SLC7A8. In the cytosol, Kyn binds to and activates AhR, leading to its translocation into the nucleus where AhR transactivates RUNX1, thus regulating MEP differentiation into megakaryocytes. In addition, activated AhR upregulates SLC7A8 in MEPs to induce positive feedback. Importantly, Kyn-AhR-RUNX1-regulated MEP differentiation was demonstrated in both humanized mice and individuals with cancer, providing potential strategies for the prevention of thrombocytosis and erythrocytopenia.

Human-induced weakening of the Northern Hemisphere tropical circulation.

By accounting for most of the poleward atmospheric heat and moisture transport in the tropics, the Hadley circulation largely affects the latitudinal patterns of precipitation and temperature at low latitudes. To increase our preparednesses for human-induced climate change, it is thus critical to accurately assess the response of the Hadley circulation to anthropogenic emissions1-3. However, at present, there is a large uncertainty in recent Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation strength changes4. Not only do climate models simulate a weakening of the circulation5, whereas atmospheric reanalyses mostly show an intensification of the circulation4-8, but atmospheric reanalyses were found to have artificial biases in the strength of the circulation5, resulting in unknown impacts of human emissions on recent Hadley circulation changes. Here we constrain the recent changes in the Hadley circulation using sea-level pressure measurements and show that, in agreement with the latest suite of climate models, the circulation has considerably weakened over recent decades. We further show that the weakening of the circulation is attributable to anthropogenic emissions, which increases our confidence in human-induced tropical climate change projections. Given the large climate impacts of the circulation at low latitudes, the recent human-induced weakening of the flow suggests wider consequences for the regional tropical-subtropical climate.

Large language models encode clinical knowledge.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities, but the bar for clinical applications is high. Attempts to assess the clinical knowledge of models typically rely on automated evaluations based on limited benchmarks. Here, to address these limitations, we present MultiMedQA, a benchmark combining six existing medical question answering datasets spanning professional medicine, research and consumer queries and a new dataset of medical questions searched online, HealthSearchQA. We propose a human evaluation framework for model answers along multiple axes including factuality, comprehension, reasoning, possible harm and bias. In addition, we evaluate Pathways Language Model1 (PaLM, a 540-billion parameter LLM) and its instruction-tuned variant, Flan-PaLM2 on MultiMedQA. Using a combination of prompting strategies, Flan-PaLM achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on every MultiMedQA multiple-choice dataset (MedQA3, MedMCQA4, PubMedQA5 and Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) clinical topics6), including 67.6% accuracy on MedQA (US Medical Licensing Exam-style questions), surpassing the prior state of the art by more than 17%. However, human evaluation reveals key gaps. To resolve this, we introduce instruction prompt tuning, a parameter-efficient approach for aligning LLMs to new domains using a few exemplars. The resulting model, Med-PaLM, performs encouragingly, but remains inferior to clinicians. We show that comprehension, knowledge recall and reasoning improve with model scale and instruction prompt tuning, suggesting the potential utility of LLMs in medicine. Our human evaluations reveal limitations of today's models, reinforcing the importance of both evaluation frameworks and method development in creating safe, helpful LLMs for clinical applications.

The illusion of moral decline.

Anecdotal evidence indicates that people believe that morality is declining1,2. In a series of studies using both archival and original data (n = 12,492,983), we show that people in at least 60 nations around the world believe that morality is declining, that they have believed this for at least 70 years and that they attribute this decline both to the decreasing morality of individuals as they age and to the decreasing morality of successive generations. Next, we show that people's reports of the morality of their contemporaries have not declined over time, suggesting that the perception of moral decline is an illusion. Finally, we show how a simple mechanism based on two well-established psychological phenomena (biased exposure to information and biased memory for information) can produce an illusion of moral decline, and we report studies that confirm two of its predictions about the circumstances under which the perception of moral decline is attenuated, eliminated or reversed (that is, when respondents are asked about the morality of people they know well or people who lived before the respondent was born). Together, our studies show that the perception of moral decline is pervasive, perdurable, unfounded and easily produced. This illusion has implications for research on the misallocation of scarce resources3, the underuse of social support4 and social influence5.

Identification and correction for collider bias in a genome-wide association study of diabetes-related heart failure.

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a major risk factor for heart failure (HF) and has elevated incidence among individuals with HF. Since genetics and HF can independently influence T2D, collider bias may occur when T2D (i.e., collider) is controlled for by design or analysis. Thus, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of diabetes-related HF with correction for collider bias. We first performed a GWAS of HF to identify genetic instrumental variables (GIVs) for HF and to enable bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis between T2D and HF. We identified 61 genomic loci, significantly associated with all-cause HF in 114,275 individuals with HF and over 1.5 million controls of European ancestry. Using a two-sample bidirectional MR approach with 59 and 82 GIVs for HF and T2D, respectively, we estimated that T2D increased HF risk (odds ratio [OR] 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.10), while HF also increased T2D risk (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.36-1.88). Then we performed a GWAS of diabetes-related HF corrected for collider bias due to the study design of index cases. After removing the spurious association of TCF7L2 locus due to collider bias, we identified two genome-wide significant loci close to PITX2 (chromosome 4) and CDKN2B-AS1 (chromosome 9) associated with diabetes-related HF in the Million Veteran Program and replicated the associations in the UK Biobank. Our MR findings provide strong evidence that HF increases T2D risk. As a result, collider bias leads to spurious genetic associations of diabetes-related HF, which can be effectively corrected to identify true positive loci.

Small polymorphisms are a source of ancestral bias in structural variant breakpoint placement.

High-quality genome assemblies and sophisticated algorithms have increased sensitivity for a wide range of variant types, and breakpoint accuracy for structural variants (SVs, ≥50 bp) has improved to near base pair precision. Despite these advances, many SV breakpoint locations are subject to systematic bias affecting variant representation. To understand why SV breakpoints are inconsistent across samples, we reanalyzed 64 phased haplotypes constructed from long-read assemblies released by the Human Genome Structural Variation Consortium (HGSVC). We identify 882 SV insertions and 180 SV deletions with variable breakpoints not anchored in tandem repeats (TRs) or segmental duplications (SDs). SVs called from aligned sequencing reads increase breakpoint disagreements by 2×-16×. Sequence accuracy had a minimal impact on breakpoints, but we observe a strong effect of ancestry. We confirm that SNP and indel polymorphisms are enriched at shifted breakpoints and are also absent from variant callsets. Breakpoint homology increases the likelihood of imprecise SV calls and the distance they are shifted, and tandem duplications are the most heavily affected SVs. Because graph genome methods normalize SV calls across samples, we investigated graphs generated by two different methods and find the resulting breakpoints are subject to other technical biases affecting breakpoint accuracy. The breakpoint inconsistencies we characterize affect ∼5% of the SVs called in a human genome and can impact variant interpretation and annotation. These limitations underscore a need for algorithm development to improve SV databases, mitigate the impact of ancestry on breakpoints, and increase the value of callsets for investigating breakpoint features.

A phylogeny-informed characterisation of global tetrapod traits addresses data gaps and biases.

Tetrapods (amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals) are model systems for global biodiversity science, but continuing data gaps, limited data standardisation, and ongoing flux in taxonomic nomenclature constrain integrative research on this group and potentially cause biased inference. We combined and harmonised taxonomic, spatial, phylogenetic, and attribute data with phylogeny-based multiple imputation to provide a comprehensive data resource (TetrapodTraits 1.0.0) that includes values, predictions, and sources for body size, activity time, micro- and macrohabitat, ecosystem, threat status, biogeography, insularity, environmental preferences, and human influence, for all 33,281 tetrapod species covered in recent fully sampled phylogenies. We assess gaps and biases across taxa and space, finding that shared data missing in attribute values increased with taxon-level completeness and richness across clades. Prediction of missing attribute values using multiple imputation revealed substantial changes in estimated macroecological patterns. These results highlight biases incurred by nonrandom missingness and strategies to best address them. While there is an obvious need for further data collection and updates, our phylogeny-informed database of tetrapod traits can support a more comprehensive representation of tetrapod species and their attributes in ecology, evolution, and conservation research.

Unrepresentative big surveys significantly overestimated US vaccine uptake.

Surveys are a crucial tool for understanding public opinion and behaviour, and their accuracy depends on maintaining statistical representativeness of their target populations by minimizing biases from all sources. Increasing data size shrinks confidence intervals but magnifies the effect of survey bias: an instance of the Big Data Paradox1. Here we demonstrate this paradox in estimates of first-dose COVID-19 vaccine uptake in US adults from 9 January to 19 May 2021 from two large surveys: Delphi-Facebook2,3 (about 250,000 responses per week) and Census Household Pulse4 (about 75,000 every two weeks). In May 2021, Delphi-Facebook overestimated uptake by 17 percentage points (14-20 percentage points with 5% benchmark imprecision) and Census Household Pulse by 14 (11-17 percentage points with 5% benchmark imprecision), compared to a retroactively updated benchmark the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published on 26 May 2021. Moreover, their large sample sizes led to miniscule margins of error on the incorrect estimates. By contrast, an Axios-Ipsos online panel5 with about 1,000 responses per week following survey research best practices6 provided reliable estimates and uncertainty quantification. We decompose observed error using a recent analytic framework1 to explain the inaccuracy in the three surveys. We then analyse the implications for vaccine hesitancy and willingness. We show how a survey of 250,000 respondents can produce an estimate of the population mean that is no more accurate than an estimate from a simple random sample of size 10. Our central message is that data quality matters more than data quantity, and that compensating the former with the latter is a mathematically provable losing proposition.

Getting in LINE with Replication.

Sultana et al. (2019) and Flasch et al. (2019) determined integration patterns of human LINE-1 (long interspersed element-1) retrotransposons highlighting their interaction with DNA replication guided by their 5'-TTTT/AA-3' integration motif and nucleotide biases in the genome.

Nonlinear bias toward complex contagion in uncertain transmission settings.

Current epidemics in the biological and social domains are challenging the standard assumptions of mathematical contagion models. Chief among them are the complex patterns of transmission caused by heterogeneous group sizes and infection risk varying by orders of magnitude in different settings, like indoor versus outdoor gatherings in the COVID-19 pandemic or different moderation practices in social media communities. However, quantifying these heterogeneous levels of risk is difficult, and most models typically ignore them. Here, we include these features in an epidemic model on weighted hypergraphs to capture group-specific transmission rates. We study analytically the consequences of ignoring the heterogeneous transmissibility and find an induced superlinear infection rate during the emergence of a new outbreak, even though the underlying mechanism is a simple, linear contagion. The dynamics produced at the individual and group levels are therefore more similar to complex, nonlinear contagions, thus blurring the line between simple and complex contagions in realistic settings. We support this claim by introducing a Bayesian inference framework to quantify the nonlinearity of contagion processes. We show that simple contagions on real weighted hypergraphs are systematically biased toward the superlinear regime if the heterogeneity of the weights is ignored, greatly increasing the risk of erroneous classification as complex contagions. Our results provide an important cautionary tale for the challenging task of inferring transmission mechanisms from incidence data. Yet, it also paves the way for effective models that capture complex features of epidemics through nonlinear infection rates.

People see more of their biases in algorithms.

Algorithmic bias occurs when algorithms incorporate biases in the human decisions on which they are trained. We find that people see more of their biases (e.g., age, gender, race) in the decisions of algorithms than in their own decisions. Research participants saw more bias in the decisions of algorithms trained on their decisions than in their own decisions, even when those decisions were the same and participants were incentivized to reveal their true beliefs. By contrast, participants saw as much bias in the decisions of algorithms trained on their decisions as in the decisions of other participants and algorithms trained on the decisions of other participants. Cognitive psychological processes and motivated reasoning help explain why people see more of their biases in algorithms. Research participants most susceptible to bias blind spot were most likely to see more bias in algorithms than self. Participants were also more likely to perceive algorithms than themselves to have been influenced by irrelevant biasing attributes (e.g., race) but not by relevant attributes (e.g., user reviews). Because participants saw more of their biases in algorithms than themselves, they were more likely to make debiasing corrections to decisions attributed to an algorithm than to themselves. Our findings show that bias is more readily perceived in algorithms than in self and suggest how to use algorithms to reveal and correct biased human decisions.

A predisposed motor bias shapes individuality in vocal learning.

The development of individuality during learned behavior is a common trait observed across animal species; however, the underlying biological mechanisms remain understood. Similar to human speech, songbirds develop individually unique songs with species-specific traits through vocal learning. In this study, we investigate the developmental and molecular mechanisms underlying individuality in vocal learning by utilizing F1 hybrid songbirds (Taeniopygia guttata cross with Taeniopygia bichenovii), taking an integrating approach combining experimentally controlled systematic song tutoring, unbiased discriminant analysis of song features, and single-cell transcriptomics. When tutoring with songs from both parental species, F1 hybrid individuals exhibit evident diversity in their acquired songs. Approximately 30% of F1 hybrids selectively learn either song of the two parental species, while others develop merged songs that combine traits from both species. Vocal acoustic biases during vocal babbling initially appear as individual differences in songs among F1 juveniles and are maintained through the sensitive period of song vocal learning. These vocal acoustic biases emerge independently of the initial auditory experience of hearing the biological father's and passive tutored songs. We identify individual differences in transcriptional signatures in a subset of cell types, including the glutamatergic neurons projecting from the cortical vocal output nucleus to the hypoglossal nuclei, which are associated with variations of vocal acoustic features. These findings suggest that a genetically predisposed vocal motor bias serves as the initial origin of individual variation in vocal learning, influencing learning constraints and preferences.

Collider bias correction for multiple covariates in GWAS using robust multivariable Mendelian randomization.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified many genetic loci associated with complex traits and diseases in the past 20 years. Multiple heritable covariates may be added into GWAS regression models to estimate direct effects of genetic variants on a focal trait, or to improve the power by accounting for environmental effects and other sources of trait variations. When one or more covariates are causally affected by both genetic variants and hidden confounders, adjusting for them in GWAS will produce biased estimation of SNP effects, known as collider bias. Several approaches have been developed to correct collider bias through estimating the bias by Mendelian randomization (MR). However, these methods work for only one covariate, some of which utilize MR methods with relatively strong assumptions, both of which may not hold in practice. In this paper, we extend the bias-correction approaches in two aspects: first we derive an analytical expression for the collider bias in the presence of multiple covariates, then we propose estimating the bias using a robust multivariable MR (MVMR) method based on constrained maximum likelihood (called MVMR-cML), allowing the presence of invalid instrumental variables (IVs) and correlated pleiotropy. We also established the estimation consistency and asymptotic normality of the new bias-corrected estimator. We conducted simulations to show that all methods mitigated collider bias under various scenarios. In real data analyses, we applied the methods to two GWAS examples, the first a GWAS of waist-hip ratio with adjustment for only one covariate, body-mass index (BMI), and the second a GWAS of BMI adjusting metabolomic principle components as multiple covariates, illustrating the effectiveness of bias correction.

Using genetic association data to guide drug discovery and development: Review of methods and applications.

Evidence on the validity of drug targets from randomized trials is reliable but typically expensive and slow to obtain. In contrast, evidence from conventional observational epidemiological studies is less reliable because of the potential for bias from confounding and reverse causation. Mendelian randomization is a quasi-experimental approach analogous to a randomized trial that exploits naturally occurring randomization in the transmission of genetic variants. In Mendelian randomization, genetic variants that can be regarded as proxies for an intervention on the proposed drug target are leveraged as instrumental variables to investigate potential effects on biomarkers and disease outcomes in large-scale observational datasets. This approach can be implemented rapidly for a range of drug targets to provide evidence on their effects and thus inform on their priority for further investigation. In this review, we present statistical methods and their applications to showcase the diverse opportunities for applying Mendelian randomization in guiding clinical development efforts, thus enabling interventions to target the right mechanism in the right population group at the right time. These methods can inform investigators on the mechanisms underlying drug effects, their related biomarkers, implications for the timing of interventions, and the population subgroups that stand to gain the most benefit. Most methods can be implemented with publicly available data on summarized genetic associations with traits and diseases, meaning that the only major limitations to their usage are the availability of appropriately powered studies for the exposure and outcome and the existence of a suitable genetic proxy for the proposed intervention.

Believing is seeing - the deceptive influence of bias in quantitative microscopy.

The visual allure of microscopy makes it an intuitively powerful research tool. Intuition, however, can easily obscure or distort the reality of the information contained in an image. Common cognitive biases, combined with institutional pressures that reward positive research results, can quickly skew a microscopy project towards upholding, rather than rigorously challenging, a hypothesis. The impact of these biases on a variety of research topics is well known. What might be less appreciated are the many forms in which bias can permeate a microscopy experiment. Even well-intentioned researchers are susceptible to bias, which must therefore be actively recognized to be mitigated. Importantly, although image quantification has increasingly become an expectation, ostensibly to confront subtle biases, it is not a guarantee against bias and cannot alone shield an experiment from cognitive distortions. Here, we provide illustrative examples of the insidiously pervasive nature of bias in microscopy experiments - from initial experimental design to image acquisition, analysis and data interpretation. We then provide suggestions that can serve as guard rails against bias.

Leveraging family data to design Mendelian randomization that is provably robust to population stratification.

Mendelian randomization (MR) has emerged as a powerful approach to leverage genetic instruments to infer causality between pairs of traits in observational studies. However, the results of such studies are susceptible to biases owing to weak instruments, as well as the confounding effects of population stratification and horizontal pleiotropy. Here, we show that family data can be leveraged to design MR tests that are provably robust to confounding from population stratification, assortative mating, and dynastic effects. We show in simulations that our approach, MR-Twin, is robust to confounding from population stratification and is not affected by weak instrument bias, whereas standard MR methods yield inflated false positive rates. We then conduct an exploratory analysis of MR-Twin and other MR methods applied to 121 trait pairs in the UK Biobank data set. Our results suggest that confounding from population stratification can lead to false positives for existing MR methods, whereas MR-Twin is immune to this type of confounding, and that MR-Twin can help assess whether traditional approaches may be inflated owing to confounding from population stratification.

Feature-specific reactivations of past information shift current neural encoding thereby mediating serial bias behaviors.

The regularities of the world render an intricate interplay between past and present. Even across independent trials, current-trial perception can be automatically shifted by preceding trials, namely the "serial bias." Meanwhile, the neural implementation of the spontaneous shift of present by past that operates on multiple features remains unknown. In two auditory categorization experiments with human electrophysiological recordings, we demonstrate that serial bias arises from the co-occurrence of past-trial neural reactivation and the neural encoding of current-trial features. The meeting of past and present shifts the neural representation of current-trial features and modulates serial bias behavior. Critically, past-trial features (i.e., pitch, category choice, motor response) keep their respective identities in memory and are only reactivated by the corresponding features in the current trial, giving rise to dissociated feature-specific serial biases. The feature-specific automatic reactivation might constitute a fundamental mechanism for adaptive past-to-present generalizations over multiple features.

Patterns and trends of Northern Hemisphere snow mass from 1980 to 2018.

Warming surface temperatures have driven a substantial reduction in the extent and duration of Northern Hemisphere snow cover1-3. These changes in snow cover affect Earth's climate system via the surface energy budget, and influence freshwater resources across a large proportion of the Northern Hemisphere4-6. In contrast to snow extent, reliable quantitative knowledge on seasonal snow mass and its trend is lacking7-9. Here we use the new GlobSnow 3.0 dataset to show that the 1980-2018 annual maximum snow mass in the Northern Hemisphere was, on average, 3,062 ± 35 billion tonnes (gigatonnes). Our quantification is for March (the month that most closely corresponds to peak snow mass), covers non-alpine regions above 40° N and, crucially, includes a bias correction based on in-field snow observations. We compare our GlobSnow 3.0 estimates with three independent estimates of snow mass, each with and without the bias correction. Across the four datasets, the bias correction decreased the range from 2,433-3,380 gigatonnes (mean 2,867) to 2,846-3,062 gigatonnes (mean 2,938)-a reduction in uncertainty from 33% to 7.4%. On the basis of our bias-corrected GlobSnow 3.0 estimates, we find different continental trends over the 39-year satellite record. For example, snow mass decreased by 46 gigatonnes per decade across North America but had a negligible trend across Eurasia; both continents exhibit high regional variability. Our results enable a better estimation of the role of seasonal snow mass in Earth's energy, water and carbon budgets.

Landscape and function of multiple mutations within individual oncogenes.

Sporadic reports have described cancer cases in which multiple driver mutations (MMs) occur in the same oncogene1,2. However, the overall landscape and relevance of MMs remain elusive. Here we carried out a pan-cancer analysis of 60,954 cancer samples, and identified 14 pan-cancer and 6 cancer-type-specific oncogenes in which MMs occur more frequently than expected: 9% of samples with at least one mutation in these genes harboured MMs. In various oncogenes, MMs are preferentially present in cis and show markedly different mutational patterns compared with single mutations in terms of type (missense mutations versus in-frame indels), position and amino-acid substitution, suggesting a cis-acting effect on mutational selection. MMs show an overrepresentation of functionally weak, infrequent mutations, which confer enhanced oncogenicity in combination. Cells with MMs in the PIK3CA and NOTCH1 genes exhibit stronger dependencies on the mutated genes themselves, enhanced downstream signalling activation and/or greater sensitivity to inhibitory drugs than those with single mutations. Together oncogenic MMs are a relatively common driver event, providing the underlying mechanism for clonal selection of suboptimal mutations that are individually rare but collectively account for a substantial proportion of oncogenic mutations.