Progression of non-obstructive coronary plaque: a practical CCTA-based risk score from the PARADIGM registry.

OBJECTIVES: No clear recommendations are endorsed by the different scientific societies on the clinical use of repeat coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) in patients with non-obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). This study aimed to develop and validate a practical CCTA risk score to predict medium-term disease progression in patients at a low-to-intermediate probability of CAD. METHODS: Patients were part of the Progression of AtheRosclerotic PlAque Determined by Computed Tomographic Angiography Imaging (PARADIGM) registry. Specifically, 370 (derivation cohort) and 219 (validation cohort) patients with two repeat, clinically indicated CCTA scans, non-obstructive CAD, and absence of high-risk plaque (≥ 2 high-risk features) at baseline CCTA were included. Disease progression was defined as the new occurrence of ≥ 50% stenosis and/or high-risk plaque at follow-up CCTA. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, 104 (28%) patients experienced disease progression. The median time interval between the two CCTAs was 3.3 years (2.7-4.8). Odds ratios for disease progression derived from multivariable logistic regression were as follows: 4.59 (95% confidence interval: 1.69-12.48) for the number of plaques with spotty calcification, 3.73 (1.46-9.52) for the number of plaques with low attenuation component, 2.71 (1.62-4.50) for 25-49% stenosis severity, 1.47 (1.17-1.84) for the number of bifurcation plaques, and 1.21 (1.02-1.42) for the time between the two CCTAs. The C-statistics of the model were 0.732 (0.676-0.788) and 0.668 (0.583-0.752) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The new CCTA-based risk score is a simple and practical tool that can predict mid-term CAD progression in patients with known non-obstructive CAD. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: The clinical implementation of this new CCTA-based risk score can help promote the management of patients with non-obstructive coronary disease in terms of timing of imaging follow-up and therapeutic strategies. KEY POINTS: • No recommendations are available on the use of repeat CCTA in patients with non-obstructive CAD. • This new CCTA score predicts mid-term CAD progression in patients with non-obstructive stenosis at baseline. • This new CCTA score can help guide the clinical management of patients with non-obstructive CAD.

Incremental prognostic value of triglyceride glucose index additional to coronary artery calcium score in asymptomatic low-risk population.

BACKGROUND: The triglyceride glucose (TyG) index has been suggested as a reliable surrogate marker of insulin resistance which is a substantial risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Several recent studies have shown the relationship between the TyG index and cardiovascular disease; however, the role of the TyG index in coronary artery calcification (CAC) progression has not been extensively assessed especially in low-risk population. METHODS: We enrolled 5775 Korean adults who had at least two CAC evaluations. We determined the TyG index using ln (fasting triglycerides [mg/dL] x fasting glucose [mg/dL]/2). The CAC progression was defined as either incident CAC in a CAC-free population at baseline or an increase of ≥ 2.5 units between the square roots of the baseline and follow-up coronary artery calcium scores (CACSs) of subjects with detectable CAC at baseline. RESULTS: CAC progression was seen in 1,382 subjects (23.9%) during mean 3.5 years follow-up. Based on the TyG index, subjects were stratified into four groups. Follow-up CACS and incidence of CAC progression were markedly elevated with rising TyG index quartiles (group I [lowest]:17.6% vs. group II:22.2% vs. group III:24.6% vs. group IV [highest]: 31.3%, p < 0.001). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, the TyG index was independent predictor of CAC progression (odds ratio: 1.57; 95% confidence interval: 1.33 to 1.81; p < 0.001) especially in baseline CACS ≤ 100 group. CONCLUSION: The TyG index is an independent predictor of CAC progression in low-risk population. It adds incremental risk stratification over established factors including baseline CACS.

Glycemic control is independently associated with rapid progression of coronary atherosclerosis in the absence of a baseline coronary plaque burden: a retrospective case-control study from the PARADIGM registry.

BACKGROUND: The baseline coronary plaque burden is the most important factor for rapid plaque progression (RPP) in the coronary artery. However, data on the independent predictors of RPP in the absence of a baseline coronary plaque burden are limited. Thus, this study aimed to investigate the predictors for RPP in patients without coronary plaques on baseline coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) images. METHODS: A total of 402 patients (mean age: 57.6 ± 10.0 years, 49.3% men) without coronary plaques at baseline who underwent serial coronary CCTA were identified from the Progression of Atherosclerotic Plaque Determined by Computed Tomographic Angiography Imaging (PARADIGM) registry and included in this retrospective study. RPP was defined as an annual change of ≥ 1.0%/year in the percentage atheroma volume (PAV). RESULTS: During a median inter-scan period of 3.6 years (interquartile range: 2.7-5.0 years), newly developed coronary plaques and RPP were observed in 35.6% and 4.2% of the patients, respectively. The baseline traditional risk factors, i.e., advanced age (≥ 60 years), male sex, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, obesity, and current smoking status, were not significantly associated with the risk of RPP. Multivariate linear regression analysis showed that the serum hemoglobin A1c level (per 1% increase) measured at follow-up CCTA was independently associated with the annual change in the PAV (ß: 0.098, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.048-0.149; P < 0.001). The multiple logistic regression models showed that the serum hemoglobin A1c level had an independent and positive association with the risk of RPP. The optimal predictive cut-off value of the hemoglobin A1c level for RPP was 7.05% (sensitivity: 80.0%, specificity: 86.7%; area under curve: 0.816 [95% CI: 0.574-0.999]; P = 0.017). CONCLUSION: In this retrospective case-control study, the glycemic control status was strongly associated with the risk of RPP in patients without a baseline coronary plaque burden. This suggests that regular monitoring of the glycemic control status might be helpful for preventing the rapid progression of coronary atherosclerosis irrespective of the baseline risk factors. Further randomized investigations are necessary to confirm the results of our study. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02803411.

Association between Aortic Valve Calcification Progression and Coronary Atherosclerotic Plaque Volume Progression in the PARADIGM Registry.

Background Aortic valve calcification (AVC) is a key feature of aortic stenosis, and patients with aortic stenosis often have coronary -artery disease. Therefore, proving the association between the progression of AVC and coronary atherosclerosis could improve follow-up and treatment strategies. Purpose To explore the association between the progression of AVC and the progression of total and plaque volume composition from a large multicenter registry of serial coronary CT angiographic examinations. Materials and Methods A prospective multinational registry (PARADIGM) of consecutive participants who underwent serial coronary CT angiography at intervals of every 2 years or more was performed (January 2003-December 2015). AVC and the total and plaque volume composition at baseline and follow-up angiography were quantitatively analyzed. Plaque volumes were normalized by using the mean total analyzed vessel length of the study population. Multivariable linear mixed-effects models were constructed. Results Overall, 594 participants (mean age ± standard deviation, 62 years ± 10; 330 men) were included (mean interval between baseline and follow-up angiography, 3.9 years ± 1.5). At baseline, the AVC score was 31 Agatston units ± 117, and the normalized total plaque volume at baseline was 122 mm3 ± 219. After adjustment for age, sex, clinical risk factors, and medication use, AVC was independently associated with total plaque volume (standardized ß = 0.24; 95% CI: 0.16, 0.32; P < .001) and both calcified (ß = 0.26; 95% CI: 0.18, 0.34; P < .001) and noncalcified (ß = 0.17; 95% CI: 0.08, 0.25; P < .001) plaque volumes at baseline. The progression of AVC was associated with the progression of total plaque volume (ß = 0.13; 95% CI: 0.03, 0.22; P = .01), driven solely by calcified plaque volume (ß = 0.24; 95% CI: 0.14, 0.34; P < .001) but not noncalcified plaque volumes (ß = -0.06; 95% CI: -0.14, 0.03; P = .17). Conclusion The overall burden of coronary atherosclerosis was associated with aortic valve calcification at baseline. However, the progression of aortic valve calcification was associated with only the progression of calcified plaque volume but not with the -progression of noncalcified plaque volume. Clinical trial registration no. NCT02803411 © RSNA, 2021 See also the editorial by Sinitsyn in this issue.

Quantitative assessment of coronary plaque volume change related to triglyceride glucose index: The Progression of AtheRosclerotic PlAque DetermIned by Computed TomoGraphic Angiography IMaging (PARADIGM) registry.

BACKGROUND: The association between triglyceride glucose (TyG) index and coronary atherosclerotic change remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate the association between TyG index and coronary plaque progression (PP) using serial coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA). METHODS: A total of 1143 subjects (aged 60.7 ± 9.3 years, 54.6% male) who underwent serial CCTA with available data on TyG index and diabetic status were analyzed from The Progression of AtheRosclerotic PlAque DetermIned by Computed TomoGraphic Angiography IMaging (PARADIGM) registry. PP was defined as plaque volume (PV) (mm3) at follow-up minus PV at index > 0. Annual change of PV (mm3/year) was defined as PV change divided by inter-scan period. Rapid PP was defined as the progression of percent atheroma volume (PV divided by vessel volume multiplied by 100) ≥ 1.0%/year. RESULTS: The median inter-scan period was 3.2 (range 2.6-4.4) years. All participants were stratified into three groups based on TyG index tertiles. The overall incidence of PP was 77.3%. Baseline total PV (group I [lowest]: 30.8 (0.0-117.7), group II: 47.2 (6.2-160.4), and group III [highest]: 57.5 (8.4-154.3); P < 0.001) and the annual change of total PV (group I: 5.7 (0.0-20.2), group II: 7.6 (0.5-23.5), and group III: 9.4 (1.4-27.7); P = 0.010) were different among all groups. The risk of PP (odds ratio [OR] 1.648; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.167-2.327; P = 0.005) and rapid PP (OR 1.777; 95% CI 1.288-2.451; P < 0.001) was increased in group III compared to that in group I. TyG index had a positive and significant association with an increased risk of PP and rapid PP after adjusting for confounding factors. CONCLUSION: TyG index is an independent predictive marker for the progression of coronary atherosclerosis. Clinical registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02803411.

Evaluation of the impact of glycemic status on the progression of coronary artery calcification in asymptomatic individuals.

BACKGROUND: Data on the influence of glycemic status on the progression of coronary calcification, an important marker for future adverse cardiovascular events, are limited. METHODS: Data from the Korea Initiatives on Coronary Artery Calcification (KOICA) registry on 12,441 asymptomatic Korean adults (52 ± 9 years, 84.2% males) without previous history of coronary artery disease and stroke, who underwent serial coronary artery calcification (CAC) screening examinations, were included in this study. The median inter-scan period was 3.0 (2.0-4.8) years. All participants were categorized into three groups based on their glycemic status: normal (n = 6578), pre-diabetes (n = 4146), and diabetes (n = 1717). CAC progression was defined as a difference ≥ 2.5 between the square roots (√) of the baseline and follow-up CAC scores. RESULTS: The incidence of CAC progression was significantly different between the three groups (normal, 26.3%; pre-diabetes, 30.9%; and diabetes, 46.9%; p < 0.001). In the univariate logistic analysis, the risk of CAC progression was higher in the pre-diabetes (odds ratio [OR] 1.253; 95% confidential interval [CI] 1.150-1.366) and diabetes (OR 2.471; 95% CI 2.215-2.758) groups than in the normal group (p < 0.001, both). In the multivariate logistic analysis, the risk of CAC progression was not significantly different between the normal and pre-diabetes groups but was significantly higher in the diabetes group than in the normal group. CONCLUSIONS: In asymptomatic subjects, diabetes had an incremental impact on CAC progression; however, pre-diabetes did not increase the risk of CAC progression after adjusting for confounding factors.

Prediction of infarct size and adverse cardiac outcomes by tissue tracking-cardiac magnetic resonance imaging in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated whether quantification of global left ventricular (LV) strain by tissue tracking-CMR (TT-CMR) can estimate the infarct size and clinical outcomes in patients with acute myocardial infarction (MI). METHODS: We retrospectively registered 247 consecutive patients (58 ± 12 years; male, 81%) who underwent 1.5-T CMR within 1 month after ST-segment elevation MI (median, 4 days; interquartile range, 3-6 days), and 20 age- and sex-matched controls (58 ± 11 years; male, 80%). TT-CMR analysis was applied to cine-images to measure global LV radial, circumferential and longitudinal peak strains (GRS, GCS and GLS, respectively). Adverse cardiac events were defined as cardiac death and hospitalization for heart failure. RESULTS: During the follow-up (median, 7.8 years), 20 patients (8.1%) experienced adverse events. LV myocardial deformation was significantly decreased in MI patients compared to controls and closely related to the infarct size. The GRS, GCS and GLS were all significant predictors of adverse cardiac events. In particular, a GLS > -14.1% was independently associated with a > 5-fold increased risk for adverse events, even after adjustment for the LV ejection fraction and infarct size. CONCLUSIONS: TT-CMR-derived LV strain is significantly related to the infarct size and adverse events. GLS measurement provides strong prognostic information in MI patients. KEY POINTS: • TT-CMR provides reliable quantification of LV strain in MI patients. • TT-CMR allows prediction of the infarct size and adverse events. • In particular, GLS by TT-CMR had independent prognostic value in MI patients.

Assessment of multidirectional movements of the common carotid artery in atherothrombotic stroke using dimensional speckle tracking carotid ultrasonography: A prospective, controlled cohort study.

AIM: We aimed to explore the relevance of multidirectional movements of the common carotid artery in atherothrombotic stroke. METHODS AND RESULTS: We prospectively enrolled 69 patients with atherothrombotic stroke (stroke group) and 69 age-matched and sex-matched controls (control group) who underwent carotid ultrasonography. Based on the speckle tracking technique, circumferential and radial movements of the common carotid artery were analyzed from transverse and longitudinal B-mode images of the common carotid artery. Peak longitudinal and radial displacements, strain, and strain rate were measured. Mean age of the overall population was 64 ± 11 years, and 57% (78 patients) were men. In the transverse image, circumferential strain was significantly lower in the stroke group than in the control group (5.6 ± 1.6 vs 4.2 ± 1.7, P < .001). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, circumferential strain was independently associated with stroke (odds ratio: 0.60, P = .001). Compared with conventional risk factors, as well as carotid intima-media thickness and carotid plaque, the addition of a strain parameter appeared to improve discrimination of a stroke event (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.65 and 0.75 vs 0.84, respectively; P < .05 for both). CONCLUSIONS: Circumferential strain of the common carotid artery might serve as a novel surrogate marker of atherothrombotic stroke. Multidirectional strain imaging of the common carotid artery may provide more information than conventional carotid ultrasonography and identify clinical risk factors for risk stratification of an acute stroke event.

Incremental prognostic utility of coronary CT angiography for asymptomatic patients based upon extent and severity of coronary artery calcium: results from the COronary CT Angiography EvaluatioN For Clinical Outcomes InteRnational Multicenter (CONFIRM) study.

AIM: Prior evidence observed no predictive utility of coronary CT angiography (CCTA) over the coronary artery calcium score (CACS) and the Framingham risk score (FRS), among asymptomatic individuals. Whether the prognostic value of CCTA differs for asymptomatic patients, when stratified by CACS severity, remains unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: From a 12-centre, 6-country observational registry, 3217 asymptomatic individuals without known coronary artery disease (CAD) underwent CACS and CCTA. Individuals were categorized by CACS as: 0-10, 11-100, 101-400, 401-1000, >1000. For CCTA analysis, the number of obstructive vessels-as defined by the per-patient presence of a ≥50% luminal stenosis-was used to grade the extent and severity of CAD. The incremental prognostic value of CCTA over and above FRS was measured by the likelihood ratio (LR) χ(2), C-statistic, and continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI) for prediction, discrimination, and reclassification of all-cause mortality and non-fatal myocardial infarction. During a median follow-up of 24 months (25th-75th percentile, 17-30 months), there were 58 composite end-points. The incremental value of CCTA over FRS was demonstrated in individuals with CACS >100 (LRχ(2), 25.34; increment in C-statistic, 0.24; NRI, 0.62, all P < 0.001), but not among those with CACS ≤100 (all P > 0.05). For subgroups with CACS >100, the utility of CCTA for predicting the study end-point was evident among individuals whose CACS ranged from 101 to 400; the observed predictive benefit attenuated with increasing CACS. CONCLUSION: Coronary CT angiography provides incremental prognostic utility for prediction of mortality and non-fatal myocardial infarction for asymptomatic individuals with moderately high CACS, but not for lower or higher CACS.

Left atrial volume index as a predictor for persistent left ventricular dysfunction after aortic valve surgery in patients with chronic aortic regurgitation: the role of early postoperative echocardiography.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to explore whether echocardiographic measurements during the early postoperative period can predict persistent left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD) after aortic valve surgery in patients with chronic aortic regurgitation (AR). METHODS: We prospectively recruited 54 patients (59 ± 12 years) with isolated chronic severe AR who subsequently underwent aortic valve surgery. Standard transthoracic echocardiography was performed before the operation, during the early postoperative period (≤2 weeks), and then 1 year after the surgery. RESULTS: Twelve patients with preoperative LVSD demonstrated LVSD at early after the surgery. Of the 42 patients without LVSD at preoperative echocardiography, 15 patients (36%) developed early postoperative LVSD after surgical correction. All 27 patients without LVSD at early postoperative echocardiography maintained LV function at 1 year after surgery. In the other 27 patients with postoperative LVSD, 17 patients recovered from LVSD and 10 patients did not at 1 year after surgery. Multiple logistic analysis demonstrated that postoperative left atrial volume index (LAVI) was the only independent predictor for persistent LVSD at 1 year after surgery in patients with postoperative LVSD (OR 1.180, 95% CI, 1.003-1.390, P = 0.046). The optimal LAVI cutoff value (>34.9 mL/m(2) ) had a sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 88% for the prediction of persistent LVSD. CONCLUSION: Prevalence of early postoperative LVSD was relatively high, even in the patients without LVSD at preoperative echocardiography. Postoperative LAVI could be useful to predict persistent LVSD after aortic valve surgery in patients with early postoperative LVSD.

Prediction of the development of new coronary atherosclerotic plaques with radiomics.

BACKGROUND: Radiomics is expected to identify imaging features beyond the human eye. We investigated whether radiomics can identify coronary segments that will develop new atherosclerotic plaques on coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA). METHODS: From a prospective multinational registry of patients with serial CCTA studies at ≥ 2-year intervals, segments without identifiable coronary plaque at baseline were selected and radiomic features were extracted. Cox models using clinical risk factors (Model 1), radiomic features (Model 2) and both clinical risk factors and radiomic features (Model 3) were constructed to predict the development of a coronary plaque, defined as total PV â€‹≥ â€‹1 â€‹mm3, at follow-up CCTA in each segment. RESULTS: In total, 9583 normal coronary segments were identified from 1162 patients (60.3 â€‹± â€‹9.2 years, 55.7% male) and divided 8:2 into training and test sets. At follow-up CCTA, 9.8% of the segments developed new coronary plaque. The predictive power of Models 1 and 2 was not different in both the training and test sets (C-index [95% confidence interval (CI)] of Model 1 vs. Model 2: 0.701 [0.690-0.712] vs. 0.699 [0.0.688-0.710] and 0.696 [0.671-0.725] vs. 0.0.691 [0.667-0.715], respectively, all p â€‹> â€‹0.05). The addition of radiomic features to clinical risk factors improved the predictive power of the Cox model in both the training and test sets (C-index [95% CI] of Model 3: 0.772 [0.762-0.781] and 0.767 [0.751-0.787], respectively, all p â€‹< â€‹00.0001 compared to Models 1 and 2). CONCLUSION: Radiomic features can improve the identification of segments that would develop new coronary atherosclerotic plaque. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT0280341.

Coronary computed tomographic angiography and risk of all-cause mortality and nonfatal myocardial infarction in subjects without chest pain syndrome from the CONFIRM Registry (coronary CT angiography evaluation for clinical outcomes: an international multicenter registry).

BACKGROUND: The predictive value of coronary computed tomographic angiography (cCTA) in subjects without chest pain syndrome (CPS) has not been established. We investigated the prognostic value of coronary artery disease detection by cCTA and determined the incremental risk stratification benefit of cCTA findings compared with clinical risk factor scoring and coronary artery calcium scoring (CACS) for individuals without CPS. METHODS AND RESULTS: An open-label, 12-center, 6-country observational registry of 27 125 consecutive patients undergoing cCTA and CACS was queried, and 7590 individuals without CPS or history of coronary artery disease met the inclusion criteria. All-cause mortality and the composite of all-cause mortality and nonfatal myocardial infarction were measured. During a median follow-up of 24 months (interquartile range, 18-35 months), all-cause mortality occurred in 136 individuals. After risk adjustment, compared with individuals without evidence of coronary artery disease by cCTA, individuals with obstructive 2- and 3-vessel disease or left main coronary artery disease experienced higher rates of death and composite outcome (P<0.05 for both). Both CACS and cCTA significantly improved the performance of standard risk factor prediction models for all-cause mortality and the composite outcome (likelihood ratio P<0.05 for all), but the incremental discriminatory value associated with their inclusion was more pronounced for the composite outcome and for CACS (C statistic for model with risk factors only was 0.71; for risk factors plus CACS, 0.75; for risk factors plus CACS plus cCTA, 0.77). The net reclassification improvement resulting from the addition of cCTA to a model based on standard risk factors and CACS was negligible. CONCLUSIONS: Although the prognosis for individuals without CPS is stratified by cCTA, the additional risk-predictive advantage by cCTA is not clinically meaningful compared with a risk model based on CACS. Therefore, at present, the application of cCTA for risk assessment of individuals without CPS should not be justified.

Clinical and Coronary Plaque Predictors of Atherosclerotic Nonresponse to Statin Therapy.

BACKGROUND: Statins reduce the incidence of major cardiovascular events, but residual risk remains. The study examined the determinants of atherosclerotic statin nonresponse. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate factors associated with statin nonresponse-defined atherosclerosis progression in patients treated with statins. METHODS: The multicenter PARADIGM (Progression of AtheRosclerotic PlAque DetermIned by Computed TomoGraphic Angiography Imaging) registry included patients who underwent serial coronary computed tomography angiography ≥2 years apart, with whole-heart coronary tree quantification of vessel, lumen, and plaque, and matching of baseline and follow-up coronary segments and lesions. Patients with statin use at baseline and follow-up coronary computed tomography angiography were included. Atherosclerotic statin nonresponse was defined as an absolute increase in percent atheroma volume (PAV) of 1.0% or more per year. Furthermore, a secondary endpoint was defined by the additional requirement of progression of low-attenuation plaque or fibro-fatty plaque. RESULTS: The authors included 649 patients (age 62.0 ± 9.0 years, 63.5% male) on statin therapy and 205 (31.5%) experienced atherosclerotic statin nonresponse. Age, diabetes, hypertension, and all atherosclerotic plaque features measured at baseline scan (high-risk plaque [HRP] features, calcified and noncalcified PAV, and lumen volume) were significantly different between patients with and without atherosclerotic statin nonresponse, whereas only diabetes, number of HRP features, and noncalcified and calcified PAV were independently associated with atherosclerotic statin nonresponse (odds ratio [OR]: 1.41 [95% CI: 0.95-2.11], OR: 1.15 [95% CI: 1.09-1.21], OR: 1.06 [95% CI: 1.02-1.10], OR: 1.07 [95% CI: 1.03-1.12], respectively). For the secondary endpoint (N = 125, 19.2%), only noncalcified PAV and number of HRP features were the independent determinants (OR: 1.08 [95% CI: 1.03-1.13] and OR: 1.21 [95% CI: 1.06-1.21], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In patients treated with statins, baseline plaque characterization by plaque burden and HRP is associated with atherosclerotic statin nonresponse. Patients with the highest plaque burden including HRP were at highest risk for plaque progression, despite statin therapy. These patients may need additional therapies for further risk reduction.

Atherosclerosis Imaging Quantitative Computed Tomography (AI-QCT) to guide referral to invasive coronary angiography in the randomized controlled CONSERVE trial.

AIMS: We compared diagnostic performance, costs, and association with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) of clinical coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) interpretation versus semiautomated approach that use artificial intelligence and machine learning for atherosclerosis imaging-quantitative computed tomography (AI-QCT) for patients being referred for nonemergent invasive coronary angiography (ICA). METHODS: CCTA data from individuals enrolled into the randomized controlled Computed Tomographic Angiography for Selective Cardiac Catheterization trial for an American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) guideline indication for ICA were analyzed. Site interpretation of CCTAs were compared to those analyzed by a cloud-based software (Cleerly, Inc.) that performs AI-QCT for stenosis determination, coronary vascular measurements and quantification and characterization of atherosclerotic plaque. CCTA interpretation and AI-QCT guided findings were related to MACE at 1-year follow-up. RESULTS: Seven hundred forty-seven stable patients (60 ± 12.2 years, 49% women) were included. Using AI-QCT, 9% of patients had no CAD compared with 34% for clinical CCTA interpretation. Application of AI-QCT to identify obstructive coronary stenosis at the ≥50% and ≥70% threshold would have reduced ICA by 87% and 95%, respectively. Clinical outcomes for patients without AI-QCT-identified obstructive stenosis was excellent; for 78% of patients with maximum stenosis < 50%, no cardiovascular death or acute myocardial infarction occurred. When applying an AI-QCT referral management approach to avoid ICA in patients with <50% or <70% stenosis, overall costs were reduced by 26% and 34%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In stable patients referred for ACC/AHA guideline-indicated nonemergent ICA, application of artificial intelligence and machine learning for AI-QCT can significantly reduce ICA rates and costs with no change in 1-year MACE.

Impact of statins based on high-risk plaque features on coronary plaque progression in mild stenosis lesions: results from the PARADIGM study.

AIMS: To investigate the impact of statins on plaque progression according to high-risk coronary atherosclerotic plaque (HRP) features and to identify predictive factors for rapid plaque progression in mild coronary artery disease (CAD) using serial coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA). METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed mild stenosis (25-49%) CAD, totaling 1432 lesions from 613 patients (mean age, 62.2 years, 63.9% male) and who underwent serial CCTA at a ≥2 year inter-scan interval using the Progression of AtheRosclerotic PlAque DetermIned by Computed TomoGraphic Angiography Imaging (NCT02803411) registry. The median inter-scan period was 3.5 ± 1.4 years; plaques were quantitatively assessed for annualized percent atheroma volume (PAV) and compositional plaque volume changes according to HRP features, and the rapid plaque progression was defined by the ≥90th percentile annual PAV. In mild stenotic lesions with ≥2 HRPs, statin therapy showed a 37% reduction in annual PAV (0.97 ± 2.02 vs. 1.55 ± 2.22, P = 0.038) with decreased necrotic core volume and increased dense calcium volume compared to non-statin recipient mild lesions. The key factors for rapid plaque progression were ≥2 HRPs [hazard ratio (HR), 1.89; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.02-3.49; P = 0.042], current smoking (HR, 1.69; 95% CI 1.09-2.57; P = 0.017), and diabetes (HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.07-2.22; P = 0.020). CONCLUSION: In mild CAD, statin treatment reduced plaque progression, particularly in lesions with a higher number of HRP features, which was also a strong predictor of rapid plaque progression. Therefore, aggressive statin therapy might be needed even in mild CAD with higher HRPs. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02803411.

How early can atherosclerosis be detected by coronary CT angiography? Insights from quantitative CT analysis of serial scans in the PARADIGM trial.

BACKGROUND: Non-obstructing small coronary plaques may not be well recognized by expert readers during coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) evaluation. Recent developments in atherosclerosis imaging quantitative computed tomography (AI-QCT) enabled by machine learning allow for whole-heart coronary phenotyping of atherosclerosis, but its diagnostic role for detection of small plaques on CCTA is unknown. METHODS: We performed AI-QCT in patients who underwent serial CCTA in the multinational PARADIGM study. AI-QCT results were verified by a level III experienced reader, who was blinded to baseline and follow-up status of CCTA. This retrospective analysis aimed to characterize small plaques on baseline CCTA and evaluate their serial changes on follow-up imaging. Small plaques were defined as a total plaque volume <50 â€‹mm3. RESULTS: A total of 99 patients with 502 small plaques were included. The median total plaque volume was 6.8 â€‹mm3 (IQR 3.5-13.9 â€‹mm3), most of which was non-calcified (median 6.2 â€‹mm3; 2.9-12.3 â€‹mm3). The median age at the time of baseline CCTA was 61 years old and 63% were male. The mean interscan period was 3.8 â€‹± â€‹1.6 years. On follow-up CCTA, 437 (87%) plaques were present at the same location as small plaques on baseline CCTA; 72% were larger and 15% decreased in volume. The median total plaque volume and non-calcified plaque volume increased to 18.9 â€‹mm3 (IQR 8.3-45.2 â€‹mm3) and 13.8 â€‹mm3 (IQR 5.7-33.4 â€‹mm3), respectively, among plaques that persisted on follow-up CCTA. Small plaques no longer visualized on follow-up CCTA were significantly more likely to be of lower volume, shorter in length, non-calcified, and more distal in the coronary artery, as compared with plaques that persisted at follow-up. CONCLUSION: In this retrospective analysis from the PARADIGM study, small plaques (<50 â€‹mm3) identified by AI-QCT persisted at the same location and were often larger on follow-up CCTA.

Effects of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone-system inhibitors on coronary atherosclerotic plaques: The PARADIGM registry.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Inhibition of Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone-System (RAAS) has been hypothesized to improve endothelial function and reduce plaque inflammation, however, their impact on the progression of coronary atherosclerosis is unclear. We aim to study the effects of RAAS inhibitor on plaque progression and composition assessed by serial coronary CT angiography (CCTA). METHODS: We performed a prospective, multinational study consisting of a registry of patients without history of CAD, who underwent serial CCTAs. Patients using RAAS inhibitors were propensity matched to RAAS inhibitor naïve patients based on clinical and CCTA characteristics at baseline. Atherosclerotic plaques in CCTAs were quantitatively analyzed for percent atheroma volume (PAV) according to plaque composition. Interactions between RAAS inhibitor use and baseline PAV on plaque progression were assessed in the unmatched cohort using a multivariate linear regression model. RESULTS: Of 1248 patients from the registry, 299 RAAS inhibitor taking patients were matched to 299 RAAS inhibitor naïve patients. Over a mean interval of 3.9 years, there was no significant difference in annual progression of total PAV between RAAS inhibitor naïve vs taking patients (0.75 vs 0.79%/year, p = 0.66). With interaction testing in the unmatched cohort, however, RAAS inhibitor use was significantly associated with lower non-calcified plaque progression (Beta coefficient -0.100, adjusted p = 0.038) with higher levels of baseline PAV. CONCLUSIONS: The use of RAAS inhibitors over a period of nearly 4 years did not significantly impact on total atherosclerotic plaque progression or various plaque components. However, interaction testing to assess the differential effect of RAAS inhibition based on baseline PAV suggested a significant decrease in progression of non-calcified plaque in patients with a higher burden of baseline atherosclerosis, which should be considered hypothesis generating.

Diagnostic performance of gray-scale US and elastography in solid thyroid nodules.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the diagnostic performance of gray-scale ultrasonography (US) and elastography in differentiating benign and malignant thyroid nodules. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was an institutional review board-approved retrospective study with waiver of informed consent. A total of 703 solid thyroid nodules in 676 patients (mean age, 49.7 years; range, 18-79 years) were included; there were 556 women (mean age, 49.5 years; range, 20-74 years) and 120 men (mean age, 50.7 years; range, 18-79 years). Nodules with marked hypoechogenicity, poorly defined margins, microcalcifications, and a taller-than-wide shape were classified as suspicious at grayscale US. Findings at elastography were classified according to the Rago criteria and the Asteria criteria. The diagnostic performances of gray-scale US and elastography were compared. For comparison between the diagnostic performances of gray-scale US and the combination of gray-scale US and elastography, three sets of criteria were assigned: criteria set 1, nodules with any suspicious grayscale US feature were assessed as suspicious; criteria set 2, Rago criteria were added as suspicious features to criteria set 1; and criteria set 3, Asteria criteria were added as suspicious features to criteria set 1. The diagnostic performances of gray-scale US, elastography with Rago criteria, and elastography with Asteria criteria, and odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals for predicting thyroid malignancy were compared using generalized estimating equation analysis. RESULTS: Of 703 nodules, 217 were malignant and 486 were benign. Sensitivity, negative predictive value (NPV), and OR of gray-scale US for the 703 nodules were 91.7%, 94.7%, and 22.1, respectively, and these values were higher than the 15.7% and 65.4% sensitivity, 71.7% and 79.1% NPV, and 3.7 and 2.6 ORs found for elastography with Rago and Asteria criteria, respectively. Specificity, positive predictive value, and accuracy for criteria set 1 were significantly higher than those for criteria sets 2 and 3 for most of the nodule subgroups that were considered. CONCLUSION: Elastography alone, as well as the combination of elastography and gray-scale US, showed inferior performance in the differentiation of malignant and benign thyroid nodules compared with gray-scale US features; elastography was not a useful tool in recommending fine-needle aspiration biopsy.

Development of Prediction Models for Acute Myocardial Infarction at Prehospital Stage with Machine Learning Based on a Nationwide Database.

Models for predicting acute myocardial infarction (AMI) at the prehospital stage were developed and their efficacy compared, based on variables identified from a nationwide systematic emergency medical service (EMS) registry using conventional statistical methods and machine learning algorithms. Patients in the EMS cardiovascular registry aged >15 years who were transferred from the public EMS to emergency departments in Korea from January 2016 to December 2018 were enrolled. Two datasets were constructed according to the hierarchical structure of the registry. A total of 184,577 patients (Dataset 1) were included in the final analysis. Among them, 72,439 patients (Dataset 2) were suspected to have AMI at prehospital stage. Between the models derived using the conventional logistic regression method, the B-type model incorporated AMI-specific variables from the A-type model and exhibited a superior discriminative ability (p = 0.02). The models that used extreme gradient boosting and a multilayer perceptron yielded a higher predictive performance than the conventional logistic regression-based models for analyses that used both datasets. Each machine learning algorithm yielded different classification lists of the 10 most important features. Therefore, prediction models that use nationwide prehospital data and are developed with appropriate structures can improve the identification of patients who require timely AMI management.

Relationship Between Coronary Artery Calcium and Atherosclerosis Progression Among Patients With Suspected Coronary Artery Disease.

BACKGROUND: Among symptomatic patients, it remains unclear whether a coronary artery calcium (CAC) score alone is sufficient or misses a sizeable burden and progressive risk associated with obstructive and nonobstructive atherosclerotic plaque. OBJECTIVES: Among patients with low to high CAC scores, our aims were to quantify co-occurring obstructive and nonobstructive noncalcified plaque and serial progression of atherosclerotic plaque volume. METHODS: A total of 698 symptomatic patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) underwent serial coronary computed tomographic angiography (CTA) performed 3.5 to 4.0 years apart. Atherosclerotic plaque was quantified, including by compositional subgroups. Obstructive CAD was defined as ≥50% stenosis. Multivariate linear regression models were used to measure atherosclerotic plaque progression by CAC scores. Cox proportional hazard models estimated CAD event risk (median of 10.7 years of follow-up). RESULTS: Across baseline CAC scores from 0 to ≥400, total plaque volume ranged from 30.4 to 522.4 mm3 (P < 0.001) and the prevalence of obstructive CAD increased from 1.4% to 49.1% (P < 0.001). Of those with a 0 CAC score, 97.9% of total plaque was noncalcified. Among patients with baseline CAC <100, nonobstructive CAD was prevalent (40% and 89% in CAC scores of 0 and 1-99), with plaque largely being noncalcified. On the follow-up coronary CTA, volumetric plaque growth (P < 0.001) and the development of new or worsening stenosis (P < 0.001) occurred more among patients with baseline CAC ≥100. Progression varied compositionally by baseline CAC scores. Patients with no CAC had disproportionate growth in noncalcified plaque, and for every 1 mm3 increase in calcified plaque, there was a 5.5 mm3 increase in noncalcified plaque volume. By comparison, patients with CAC scores of ≥400 exhibited disproportionate growth in calcified plaque with a volumetric increase 15.7-fold that of noncalcified plaque. There was a graded increase in CAD event risk by the CAC with rates from 3.3% for no CAC to 21.9% for CAC ≥400 (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: CAC imperfectly characterizes atherosclerotic disease burden, but its subgroups exhibit pathogenic patterns of early to advanced disease progression and stratify long-term prognostic risk.