Discrete-time population dynamics of spatially distributed semelparous two-sex populations.

Spatially distributed populations with two sexes may face the problem that males and females concentrate in different parts of the habitat and mating and reproduction does not happen sufficiently often for the population to persist. For simplicity, to explore the impact of sex-dependent dispersal on population survival, we consider a discrete-time model for a semelparous population where individuals reproduce only once in their life-time, during a very short reproduction season. The dispersal of females and males is modeled by Feller kernels and the mating by a homogeneous pair formation function. The spectral radius of a homogeneous operator is established as basic reproduction number of the population, [Formula: see text]. If [Formula: see text], the extinction state is locally stable, and if [Formula: see text] the population shows various degrees of persistence that depend on the irreducibility properties of the dispersal kernels. Special cases exhibit how sex-biased dispersal affects the persistence of the population.

How ticks keep ticking in the adversity of host immune reactions.

Ixodid ticks are acknowledged as one of the most important hematophagous arthropods because of their ability in transmitting a variety of tick-borne diseases. Mathematical models have been developed, based on emerging knowledge about tick ecology, pathogen epidemiology and their interface, to understand tick population dynamics and tick-borne diseases spread patterns. However, no serious effort has been made to model and assess the impact of host immunity triggered by tick feeding on the distribution of the tick population according to tick stages and on tick population extinction and persistence. Here, we construct a novel mathematical model taking into account the effect of host immunity status on tick population dynamics, and analyze the long-term behaviours of the model solutions. Two threshold values, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], are introduced to measure the reproduction ratios for the tick-host interaction in the absence and presence of host immunity. We then show that these two thresholds (sometimes under additional conditions) can be used to predict whether the tick population goes extinct ([Formula: see text]) and the tick population grows without bound ([Formula: see text]). We also prove tick permanence (persistence and boundedness of the tick population) and the existence of a tick persistence equilibrium if [Formula: see text]. As the host species adjust their immunity to tick infestation levels, they form for the tick population an environment with a carrying capacity very much like that in logistic growth. Numerical results show that the host immune reactions decrease the size of the tick population at equilibrium and apparently reduce the tick-borne infection risk.

Times from Infection to Disease-Induced Death and their Influence on Final Population Sizes After Epidemic Outbreaks.

For epidemic models, it is shown that fatal infectious diseases cannot drive the host population into extinction if the incidence function is upper density-dependent. This finding holds even if a latency period is included and the time from infection to disease-induced death has an arbitrary length distribution. However, if the incidence function is also lower density-dependent, very infectious diseases can lead to a drastic decline of the host population. Further, the final population size after an epidemic outbreak can possibly be substantially affected by the infection-age distribution of the initial infectives if the life expectations of infected individuals are an unbounded function of infection age (time since infection). This is the case for lognormal distributions, which fit data from infection experiments involving tiger salamander larvae and ranavirus better than gamma distributions and Weibull distributions.

Do fatal infectious diseases eradicate host species?

In simple SI epidemic and endemic models, three classes of incidence functions are identified for their potential to be associated with host extinction: weakly upper density-dependent incidences are never associated with host extinction. Power incidences that depend on the number of susceptibles and infectives by powers strictly between 0 and 1 are associated with initial-constellation-dependent host extinction for all parameter values. Homogeneous incidences, of which frequency-dependent incidence is a very particular case, and power incidences are associated with global host extinction for certain parameter constellations and with host survival for others. Laboratory infection experiments with salamander larvae are equally well fitted by power incidences and certain upper density-dependent incidences such as the negative binomial incidence and do not rule out homogeneous incidences such as an asymmetric frequency-dependent incidence either.

From homogeneous eigenvalue problems to two-sex population dynamics.

Enclosure theorems are derived for homogeneous bounded order-preserving operators and illustrated for operators involving pair-formation functions introduced by Karl-Peter Hadeler in the late 1980s. They are applied to a basic discrete-time two-sex population model and to the relation between the basic turnover number and the basic reproduction number.

Persistence versus extinction for a class of discrete-time structured population models.

We provide sharp conditions distinguishing persistence and extinction for a class of discrete-time dynamical systems on the positive cone of an ordered Banach space generated by a map which is the sum of a positive linear contraction A and a nonlinear perturbation G that is compact and differentiable at zero in the direction of the cone. Such maps arise as year-to-year projections of population age, stage, or size-structure distributions in population biology where typically A has to do with survival and individual development and G captures the effects of reproduction. The threshold distinguishing persistence and extinction is the principal eigenvalue of (II−A)(−1)G'(0) provided by the Krein-Rutman Theorem, and persistence is described in terms of associated eigenfunctionals. Our results significantly extend earlier persistence results of the last two authors which required more restrictive conditions on G. They are illustrated by application of the results to a plant model with a seed bank.

Empirical antibiotic therapy for pneumonia in intensive care units: a multicentre, retrospective analysis of potentially pathogenic microorganisms identified by endotracheal aspirates cultures.

The purpose of this investigation was to explore the presumed relationship between the days of hospitalisation and microorganisms identified by endotracheal aspirate cultures in relation to adequate empirical treatment strategies of pneumonia in the intensive care unit (ICU). All potentially pathogenic microorganisms identified by (surveillance) cultures of endotracheal aspirates obtained in the ICUs of two Dutch teaching hospitals in 2007 and 2012 were retrospectively collected and analysed. Antibiotic susceptibilities to 11 antibiotics were calculated for several time points (days or weeks) after hospital admission and expressed per patient-day. In total, 4184 potentially pathogenic microorganisms identified in 782 patients were analysed. Prevalence of the classic early-onset pneumonia-causing microorganisms decreased from 55 % on the first four days to 34 % on days 4-6 after hospital admission (p < 0.0001). Susceptibility to amoxicillin/clavulanic acid was below 70 % on all days. Except for days 0 and 12, susceptibility to ceftriaxone was below 80 %. The overall susceptibility to piperacillin/tazobactam was 1518/1973 (77 %) in 2007 vs. 727/1008 (67 %) in 2012 (p < 0.0001). After day 8 of hospital admission, susceptibility to piperacillin/tazobactam therapy was below 80 % in 2012. After one week of hospital admission, susceptibilities to antibiotics were lower in the hospital that included that antibiotic in the local empirical treatment protocols as compared to the hospitals in which that antibiotic was not or infrequently included: 90/434 (21 %) vs. 117/398 (29 %); p = 0.004 for amoxicillin/clavulanic acid and 203/433 (47 %) vs. 253/398 (64 %); p < 0.001 for ceftriaxone. No cut-off in the number of days after hospital admission could be identified to distinguish early-onset from late-onset pneumonia. Consequently, the choice of empirical antibiotics should probably not be based on the time of onset.

Delay differential systems for tick population dynamics.

Ticks play a critical role as vectors in the transmission and spread of Lyme disease, an emerging infectious disease which can cause severe illness in humans or animals. To understand the transmission dynamics of Lyme disease and other tick-borne diseases, it is necessary to investigate the population dynamics of ticks. Here, we formulate a system of delay differential equations which models the stage structure of the tick population. Temperature can alter the length of time delays in each developmental stage, and so the time delays can vary geographically (and seasonally which we do not consider). We define the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] of stage structured tick populations. The tick population is uniformly persistent if [Formula: see text] and dies out if [Formula: see text]. We present sufficient conditions under which the unique positive equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. In general, the positive equilibrium can be unstable and the system show oscillatory behavior. These oscillations are primarily due to negative feedback within the tick system, but can be enhanced by the time delays of the different developmental stages.

Diet-induced pseudohypoparathyroidism: A hypocalcemia and milk fever risk factor.

Subclinical hypocalcemia may affect half of all multiparous cows, and clinical hypocalcemia or milk fever affects approximately 5% of dairy cows each year. This disorder of calcium homeostasis can be induced by several dietary factors. Recent studies implicate high dietary potassium and high dietary cation-anion difference (DCAD) with increased risk of milk fever. The hypothesis tested in this study was that high-DCAD diets fed to prepartum cows reduce tissue sensitivity to parathyroid hormone (PTH), inducing a pseudohypoparathyroid state that diminishes calcium homeostatic responses. Multiparous Jersey cows were fed low- or high-DCAD diets in late gestation, creating a compensated metabolic alkalosis in the high-DCAD cows and a compensated metabolic acidosis in the low-DCAD cows. They then received synthetic PTH injections at 3-h intervals for 48 h. Parathyroid hormone is expected to cause an increase in plasma calcium by increasing renal production of 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D and increasing bone calcium resorption. Plasma calcium concentration increased at a significantly lower rate in cows fed the high-DCAD diet. Cows fed the high-DCAD diet also produced significantly less 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D in response to the PTH injections than cows fed the low-DCAD diet. Serum concentrations of the bone resorption marker carboxyterminal telopeptide of type I collagen were numerically lower in cows fed the high-DCAD diet but this difference was not statistically significant. These data provide direct evidence that high-DCAD diets reduce tissue sensitivity to PTH. The metabolic alkalosis associated with high-DCAD diets likely induces a state of pseudohypoparathyroidism in some dairy cows at the onset of lactation, resulting in hypocalcemia and milk fever.

Can infectious diseases eradicate host species? The effect of infection-age structure.

It is a fundamental question in mathematical epidemiology whether deadly infectious diseases only lead to a mere decline of their host populations or whether they can cause their complete disappearance. Upper density-dependent incidences do not lead to host extinction in simple, deterministic SI or SIS (susceptible-infectious) epidemic models. Infection-age structure is introduced into SIS models because of the biological accuracy offered by considering arbitrarily distributed infectious periods. In an SIS model with infection-age structure, survival of the susceptible host population is established for incidences that depend on the infection-age density in a general way. This confirms previous host persistence results without infection-age for incidence functions that are not generalizations of frequency-dependent transmission. For certain power incidences, hosts persist if some infected individuals leave the infected class and become susceptible again and the return rate dominates the infection-age dependent infectivity in a sufficient way. The hosts may be driven into extinction by the infectious disease if there is no return into the susceptible class at all.

Persistence of bacteria and phages in a chemostat.

The model of bacteriophage predation on bacteria in a chemostat formulated by Levin et al. (Am Nat 111:3-24, 1977) is generalized to include a distributed latent period, distributed viral progeny release from infected bacteria, unproductive adsorption of phages to infected cells, and possible nutrient uptake by infected cells. Indeed, two formulations of the model are given: a system of delay differential equations with infinite delay, and a more general infection-age model that leads to a system of integro-differential equations. It is shown that the bacteria persist, and sharp conditions for persistence and extinction of phages are determined by the reproductive ratio for phage relative to the phage-free equilibrium. A novel feature of our analysis is the use of the Laplace transform.

The role of multimodal adjuvant therapy for FIGO I-II carcinosarcoma of the uterus: a systematic review.

The uterine carcinosarcoma (UCS) is a rare entity with poor prognosis. Treatment of FIGO I-II UCS usually consists of surgery with or without adjuvant treatment. Due to the high metastatic potential, aggressive combined modality adjuvant treatment approaches, consisting of chemo- and radiotherapy, have been of interest. Our systematic review aims to compare survival, disease control and toxicity profiles in patients receiving adjuvant chemoradiation to other adjuvant strategies (e.g.observation, chemotherapy or radiotherapy). A total of ten studies were included for a combined cohort size of 6520 patients. Generally, the studies showed a trend towards improved disease control and survival in patients undergoing adjuvant multimodal treatment, although statistical significance was often not reached. Selection bias and non-randomized treatment allocation pose serious challenges to extrapolate these outcomes to clinical practice. We recommend additional prospective research on the role of adjuvant chemoradiation in FIGO I-II UCS.

An atomic hydrogen etching sensor for H2 plasma diagnostics.

A simple and selective new technique for atomic hydrogen flux measurements in a hydrogen plasma environment is introduced and demonstrated in this work. This technique works by measuring the etching rate of an amorphous carbon film and translating this to an incoming hydrogen radical flux through a well-defined carbon etch yield per radical. Ions present in the plasma environment have a much higher etch yield than radicals do. For that reason, suppression of the ion flux toward the carbon film is crucial to ensure that the observed carbon etch rate is dominated by atomic hydrogen etching. It is demonstrated that this can be achieved using a simple cylindrical pipe (hereinafter "chimney") in which a bend is introduced to enforce ion-wall collisions, neutralizing the ions. The chimney is made out of Macor, a material with low catalytic surface activity, to preserve the incoming atomic hydrogen flux while effectively suppressing ions. Ultimately, the etching sensor is deployed in a radio frequency inductively coupled hydrogen plasma operated at low pressure (1-10 Pa). Atomic hydrogen fluxes are measured and compared with heat flux sensor and vacuum ultraviolet absorption spectroscopy measurements in the same setup. All sensors agreed within a factor 4 in the atomic hydrogen flux range 1019 to 1021 m-2 s-1.

The value of MRI STIR signal intensity on return to play prognosis and reinjury risk estimation in athletes with acute hamstring injuries.

OBJECTIVES: Previous studies have shown low to moderate evidence for a variety of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features as prognostic factors in athletes with hamstring injuries. Short-tau inversion recovery (STIR) signal intensity has not yet been investigated for assessing the prognosis of acute muscle injuries. Our aim was to explore the relationship between MRI STIR signal intensity and time to return to play (RTP) and to investigate the association between MRI STIR and reinjury risk in athletes with acute hamstring injuries. STUDY DESIGN: Case-control study. METHODS: We used MRI STIR to measure intramuscular signal intensity in patients with clinically diagnosed hamstring injuries at two time points: at injury and RTP. At injury, we calculated the association of MRI STIR signal intensity with the time to RTP and reinjury risk. At RTP, the association of MRI STIR signal intensity and reinjury risk and the change in MRI STIR signal intensity over time on reinjury risk was evaluated. RESULTS: 51 patients were included. We found increased MRI STIR signal intensity: (1) at time of injury not to be associated with time to RTP, (2) at time of injury to be associated with a slightly lower risk for reinjury: odds 0.986 (0.975-0.998, p=0.02) and (3) at RTP not to be associated with reinjury risk. (4) We found no association between the change in MRI STIR signal intensity over time and reinjury risk. CONCLUSION: Increased MRI STIR signal intensity at injury has no value in time to RTP prognosis, but is associated with a reduced reinjury risk.

Short communication: Fat-soluble vitamin and mineral status of milk replacer-fed dairy calves: effect of growth rate during the preruminant period.

Effects of growth rate on fat-soluble vitamin and macro- and micromineral concentrations in the circulation of preruminant dairy calves were evaluated. Dietary treatments were designed to achieve 3 targeted rates of gain [no growth (NG)=0.0 kg/d; low growth (LG)=0.55 kg/d; or high growth (HG)=1.2 kg/d] over a 7-wk period. Milk replacer (MR) intakes necessary to achieve these growth rates were estimated using the National Research Council's Nutrient Requirements of Dairy Cattle calf model computer program. All of the calves were fed a 30% crude protein, 20% fat MR reconstituted to 14% dry matter. The diets were formulated to ensure that protein was not a limiting nutrient. No-growth and LG calves were supplemented additionally with vitamins A, D, and E to compensate for treatment differences in dry matter intake relative to the HG calves; however, no attempt was made to adjust mineral intake based on MR consumption. Growth rates for NG (0.11 kg/d), LG (0.58 kg/d), and HG (1.16 kg/d) calves differed during the study. Health was minimally affected by growth rate and this was reflected by comparable and relatively low serum haptoglobin concentrations in all calves during the 7-wk period. Concentrations of serum retinol, 25-(OH)-vitamin D(3), and zinc were unaffected by growth rate. The HG calves had lower RRR-alpha-tocopherol concentrations than NG and LG calves at wk 7, suggesting that the increased growth rate of HG calves was associated with increased utilization of vitamin E. Serum concentrations of all vitamins increased with age. Copper, calcium, and phosphorous concentrations in HG calves exceeded those in LG and NG calves during the latter weeks of the study, likely because of increased MR intake by HG calves. Fat-soluble vitamin and mineral concentrations for all treatment groups remained within ranges considered normal for preruminant calves.

Vitamin D content and variability in fluid milks from a US Department of Agriculture nationwide sampling to update values in the National Nutrient Database for Standard Reference.

This study determined the vitamin D(3) content and variability of retail milk in the United States having a declared fortification level of 400 IU (10 µg) per quart (qt; 1 qt=946.4 mL), which is 25% daily value per 8 fluid ounce (236.6 mL) serving. In 2007, vitamin D(3) fortified milk (skim, 1%, 2%, whole, and 1% fat chocolate milk) was collected from 24 statistically selected supermarkets in the United States. Additionally, 2% milk samples from an earlier 2001 USDA nationwide collection were reanalyzed. Vitamin D(3) was determined using a specifically validated method involving HPLC with UV spectroscopic detection and vitamin D(2) as an internal standard. Quality control materials were analyzed with the samples. Of the 120 milk samples procured in 2007, 49% had vitamin D(3) within 100 to 125% of 400 IU (10 µg)/qt (label value), 28% had 501 to 600 IU (12.5-15 µg)/qt, 16% had a level below the label amount, and 7% had greater than 600 IU (15 µg)/qt (>150% of label). Even though the mean vitamin D(3) content did not differ statistically between milk types, a wide range in values was found among individual samples, from nondetectable [<20 IU (0.5 µg)/qt] for one sample to almost 800 IU (20 µg)/qt, with a trend toward more samples of whole milk having greater than 150% of the labeled content. On average, vitamin D(3) in 2% milk was higher in 2007 compared with in 2001 [473 vs. 426 IU (11.8 vs. 10.6 µg)/qt].

[Patient safety in general dental practice 2009]. / Patiëntveiligheid in tandartspraktijken in 2009.

In recent years various studies have been published which indicate that adverse events in health care facilities are the result of structural factors. In 2009 a national study was carried out in the Netherlands to gain insight into patient safety in primary care settings, including general dental practices. In 20 randomly selected practices, patient records were investigated and oral care professionals reported, during a period of 2 weeks, adverse events which occurred. For each practice, 2 researchers screened, with the help of a checklist, 50 randomly selected patient records covering a period of 1 year. A total of 8 preventable adverse events were found in the 1000 patient records (0.8%). Anonymous reports made during the 2 weeks of the research period resulted in 7 adverse events. Practically all of the adverse events had to do with diagnostics and treatment and resulted in limited harmful consequences for patients. On the basis of these results, oral care in general dental practice would appear to be safe, but the concept 'patient safety' is not at all or only minimally active among general dental practitioners. Regarding patient safety performance, improvement in the quality of record-keeping would be desirable.

Targeting 1,25(OH)2D-mediated calcium absorption machinery in proximal colon with calcitriol glycosides and glucuronides.

High intestinal calcium (Ca) absorption efficiency is associated with high peak bone mass in adolescents and reduced bone loss in adulthood. Transepithelial intestinal Ca absorption is mediated by 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D (1,25(OH)2D, calcitriol) through the vitamin D receptor (VDR). Most research on Ca absorption focuses on the proximal small intestine but evidence shows that large intestine plays a crucial role in whole body Ca homeostasis. We directly assessed and compared Ca absorption capacity at the proximal colon and duodenum using in situ ligated loops (2 mM Ca, 10 min). In C57BL/6 J mice, the proximal colon (26.2 ±â€¯3.7 %) had comparable ability to absorb Ca as the duodenum (30.0 ±â€¯6.7 %). In VDR knockout (KO) mice, Ca absorption efficiency was reduced by 67 % in duodenum and 48 % in proximal colon. These data suggest that large intestine could be targeted to improve Ca absorption and protect bone in at risk-groups (e.g. bariatric patients). Glycoside forms of calcitriol found in Solanum Glaucophyllum (Sg) leaf are biologically inert but can be activated in the colon upon bacterial cleavage of the glycosides. We conducted a study to test whether Sg leaf, as well as a novel, synthetic 1,3-diglucuronide form of calcitriol (1,3-diG) could target the proximal colon and upregulate genes involved in Ca absorption (i.e. Trpv6, S100g). 13-week-old female C57BL6/J mice were fed AIN93 G diet containing increasing levels of one of the two compounds for 2 weeks (delivering 0, 0.25, 0.5, 1, or 2 ng calcitriol equivalent per day). Both compounds induced a dose-dependent upregulation of Cyp24a1 and Trpv6 gene expression in the proximal colon. 1,3-diG also induced S100g gene expression in the proximal colon. Duodenal expression of Trpv6 was upregulated at higher doses of 1,3-diG but not Sg leaf. These data suggest that both glycosylated and glucuronidated calcitriol could be used to target the proximal colon but that dosing must be optimized to limit systemic effects that could cause hypercalcemia. Future studies will test the translational potential of these compounds to determine if they can increase Ca absorption at proximal colon and whether this can help protect bone.

Host immune genetic variations influence the risk of developing acute myeloid leukaemia: results from the NuCLEAR consortium.

The purpose of this study was to conduct a two-stage case control association study including 654 acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) patients and 3477 controls ascertained through the NuCLEAR consortium to evaluate the effect of 27 immune-related single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on AML risk. In a pooled analysis of cohort studies, we found that carriers of the IL13rs1295686A/A genotype had an increased risk of AML (PCorr = 0.0144) whereas carriers of the VEGFArs25648T allele had a decreased risk of developing the disease (PCorr = 0.00086). In addition, we found an association of the IL8rs2227307 SNP with a decreased risk of developing AML that remained marginally significant after multiple testing (PCorr = 0.072). Functional experiments suggested that the effect of the IL13rs1295686 SNP on AML risk might be explained by its role in regulating IL1Ra secretion that modulates AML blast proliferation. Likewise, the protective effect of the IL8rs2227307 SNP might be mediated by TLR2-mediated immune responses that affect AML blast viability, proliferation and chemorresistance. Despite the potential interest of these results, additional functional studies are still warranted to unravel the mechanisms by which these variants modulate the risk of AML. These findings suggested that IL13, VEGFA and IL8 SNPs play a role in modulating AML risk.

Adequate response of plasma 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D to parturition in paretic (milk fever) dairy cows.

The concentration of 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D was measured by means of a radioactive receptor assay in the plasma of cows during the period immediately prior to, during, and following parturition. Nonparetic cows showed initially a slight decrease in plasma 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D which was followed by a significant increase during parturition and 2 days postpartum. The highest concentration achieved in the control or nonparetic cows was 100 picograms per milliliter. In the paretic animals the plasma 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D concentration increased sharply during the day preceding calving and reached a maximum of 200 picograms per milliliter at parturition. This level was maintained during the ensuing 2.5 days. These results demonstrate that parturient paresis cannot be the result of insufficient synthesis or secretion of 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D.