Grandiose narcissism influences the phenomenology of remembered past and imagined future events.

Little empirical work has examined future thinking in narcissistic grandiosity. We here extend prior work finding that people scoring high in grandiosity have self-bolstering tendencies in remembering past events, and we consider whether these tendencies extend to imagining future events. Across an initial study (N = 112) and replication (N = 169), participants wrote about remembered past events and imagined future events in which they embodied or would embody either positive or negative traits. Participants then rated those events on several subjective measures. We find that people scoring higher in grandiosity remember past events in which they embody positive traits with greater detail and ease than past events in which they embody negative traits. These same effects persist when people scoring high in grandiosity imagine possible events in their future. Those scoring higher in grandiosity endorse thinking about positive events in their past and future more frequently than negative events, and they judge positive future events as more plausible than negative future events. These tendencies did not extend to objective detail provided in their written narratives about these events. Taken together, these findings demonstrate that grandiosity is associated with self-bolstering tendencies in both remembering the past and imagining the future.

Evaluation of historical and future coastal wetland change in the Yellow and Bohai Seas using satellite images and a land use model.

Predicting the future distribution of coastal wetlands and characterizing changes in the area of wetlands between historical and future periods are important for the formulation of wetland conservation and management plans. Here, we used a cellular automata-Markov model and satellite images to simulate the future distribution of coastal wetlands under the business-as-usual scenario (BAU) and ecological protection scenario (EP) along the Yellow and Bohai Seas in China; we also explored historical (from 1990 to 2020) and future (from 2020 to 2050) changes in wetlands and the factors driving these changes. We found that the area of tidal flats gradually decreased because of increases in the area of saltpans, and the aquaculture area increased because of land reclamation and the invasion of Spartina alterniflora; most of the tidal flat area was fragmented into multiple small patches. If the current rate of degradation continues (BAU), the area of tidal flats will decrease by 21.25%, and the area of saltpans and aquaculture will increase by 13.83% and 21.25%, respectively. By contrast, under EP, the area of tidal flats will increase by 13.81%, and this increase will mainly stem from the conversion of areas with S. alterniflora (174.49 km2, 33.22%) to aquaculture areas (155.17 km2, 29.54%). Clear differences between historical and future periods were observed among Liaohe Estuary, Bohai Bay, Laizhou Bay, and the Yancheng-Nantong coasts. Land reclamation is the main factor inducing changes in the area of tidal flats, saltpans, and aquaculture in Liaohe Estuary, Bohai Bay, and Laizhou Bay. Land reclamation and the S. alterniflora invasion both affect the distribution of wetlands along the Yancheng-Nantong coasts.

Simulating the best and worst of times: the powers and perils of emotional simulation.

We are remarkably capable of simulating events that we have never experienced. These simulated events often paint an emotional picture to behold, such as the best and worst possible outcomes that we might face. This review synthesises dispersed literature exploring the role of emotion in simulation. Drawing from work that suggests that simulations can influence our preferences, decision-making, and prosociality, we argue for a critical role of emotion in informing the consequences of simulation. We further unpack burgeoning evidence suggesting that the effects of emotional simulation transcend the laboratory. We propose avenues by which emotional simulation may be harnessed for both personal and collective good in applied contexts. We conclude by offering important future directions.

An Optimistic Outlook Creates a Rosy Past: The Impact of Episodic Simulation on Subsequent Memory.

People frequently engage in future thinking in everyday life, but it is unknown how simulating an event in advance changes how that event is remembered once it takes place. To initiate study of this important topic, we conducted two experiments in which participants simulated emotional events before learning the hypothetical outcome of each event via narratives. Memory was assessed for emotional details contained in those narratives. Positive simulation resulted in a liberal response bias for positive information and a conservative bias for negative information. Events preceded by positive simulation were considered more favorably in retrospect. In contrast, negative simulation had no impact on subsequent memory. Results were similar across an immediate and delayed memory test and for past and future simulation. These results provide novel insights into the cognitive consequences of episodic future simulation and build on the optimism-bias literature by showing that adopting a favorable outlook results in a rosy memory.

Prescribed journeys through life: Cultural differences in mental time travel between Middle Easterners and Scandinavians.

Mental time travel is the ability to remember past events and imagine future events. Here, 124 Middle Easterners and 128 Scandinavians generated important past and future events. These different societies present a unique opportunity to examine effects of culture. Findings indicate stronger influence of normative schemas and greater use of mental time travel to teach, inform and direct behaviour in the Middle East compared with Scandinavia. The Middle Easterners generated more events that corresponded to their cultural life script and that contained religious words, whereas the Scandinavians reported events with a more positive mood impact. Effects of gender were mainly found in the Middle East. Main effects of time orientation largely replicated recent findings showing that simulation of future and past events are not necessarily parallel processes. In accordance with the notion that future simulations rely on schema-based construction, important future events showed a higher overlap with life script events than past events in both cultures. In general, cross-cultural discrepancies were larger in future compared with past events. Notably, the high focus in the Middle East on sharing future events to give cultural guidance is consistent with the increased adherence to normative scripts found in this culture.

Episodic elaboration: Investigating the structure of retrieved past events and imagined future events.

Five experiments investigated the cognitive processes involved in the elaboration of past and future events. A production listing procedure was used, in which participants listed details of each event in forwards chronological order, backwards chronological order, or free order. For both past and future events, forwards and free ordering conditions were reliably faster than backwards order. Production rates between past and future temporal directions did not differ in Experiments 1a, 1b, and 3. However, in Experiment 2, the elaboration of future events was faster than the elaboration of past events. This pattern can be explained by the findings of Experiment 4, in which production rates were faster for likely events than for unlikely events but only in the future condition. Overall, the findings suggest that the elaboration of future, but not past, events, is facilitated when constructed around current goals.

Is the future always brighter than the past? Anticipation of changes in the personal future after recall of past experiences.

People tend to hold an optimistic view of their futures. Using a novel paradigm to examine the anticipated change from the personal past to the personal future, we found that the future was not always perceived as brighter than the past. College students (N = 156) recalled positive and negative personal events of various situations. Following each recall, they imagined a future personal event involving the same situation. Participants expected over half of the events to change in either upward or downward directions, depending on the valence of the past events. In addition, participants anticipated greater changes in domains of less stability, and Asians anticipated greater changes than European Americans. Anticipated future changes were further associated with psychological well-being. The findings shed new light on future event simulation.

Self-enhancement and the life script in future thinking across the lifespan.

Studies comparing memory and future event simulation find that future events are more positive, and more often depend on life script events (e.g., culturally normative landmark events) than past events. Previous research does not address the link between this positivity bias and the life stage of college-age participants or their reliance on these scripted events. To examine this positivity bias, narratives of past and anticipated future events were elicited from participants aged 18-74 years, and were examined for reliance on the life script and valence ratings. Results showed that, across age groups, future events were rated as more positive than past events, and that life script events were common in the distant future. Notably, whereas younger adult age groups wrote primarily about their own life script events, older participants more commonly wrote about attending the life script events of significant others, such as children and grandchildren. These findings suggest that simulated future events play a valuable role in self-enhancement across the lifespan. Furthermore, the life script can be viewed as a useful search mechanism when one is missing the episodic details that are more available in memories; however, it is not the source of positivity bias for future events.

Future land use and land cover simulations with cellular automata-based artificial neural network: A case study over Delhi megacity (India).

According to United Nations projections, future global urban growth will mostly occur in Asian megacities. In this study, a Cellular Automata based Artificial Neural Network (CA-ANN) model is used to simulate the future land use and land cover (LULC) over Delhi megacity (India). Delhi, projected to become the world's most populated city by 2030, is an example of a data poor city in Asia, having millions of climate vulnerable people. The CA-ANN model of Modules for Land Change Simulation (MOLUSCE), an open-source plugin, is first tested to simulate the LULC for 2009. Based on good validation results-structural similarity (SSIM; 0.8288), overall accuracy (79.78 %), kappa index of agreement (KIA; 77.25 %), and minimum validation overall error (0.0379), the same model set-up is used to carry out LULC simulation for 2030. This model is found to be simple, efficient, and computationally less expensive tool, and can be used to model future LULCs with a minimal set of inputs, a constraint often found in data poor cities. Results show continued increase in built-up area from 38.3 % (2014) to 53.8 % (2030), at the expense of cultivable areas, forests, and wastelands. The study incorporates past and future LULC change trajectories to highlight the changing LULC dynamics of the megacity from 1977 to 2030. Rate of urban sprawl, calculated using compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is projected to be 2.51 % for 2014-2030, substantially higher than the estimates for 2006-2014 (0.62 %). Further, the past and future urban growth patterns for Delhi are found to mimic other big Asian cities. The database generated from the present study has wide applicability for scientific research community, governmental bodies, profit and non-profit organizations for topics concerning-future urban climate research, climate risk and adaption policy frameworks, climate finance budgeting, future town planning, etc.

Decoding the emotional valence of future thoughts.

Affective future thinking allows us to prepare for future outcomes, but we know little about neural representation of emotional future simulations. We used a multi-voxel pattern analysis to determine whether patterns of neural activity can reliably distinguish between positive and negative future simulations. Neural patterning in the anterior cingulate and ventromedial prefrontal cortices distinguished positive from negative future simulations, indicating that these regions code for the emotional valence of future events. These results support prior findings that anterior medial regions contain representations of emotions across various stimuli, and contribute to identifying potential rewarding outcomes of future events. More broadly, these results demonstrate that the phenomenological features of future thinking can be decoded using neural activity.

Ventral-Dorsal Subregions in the Posterior Cingulate Cortex Represent Pay and Interest, Two Key Attributes of Job Value.

Career choices affect not only our financial status but also our future well-being. When making these choices, individuals evaluate their willingness to obtain a job (i.e., job values), primarily driven by simulation of future pay and interest. Despite the importance of these decisions, their underlying neural mechanisms remain unclear. In this study, we examined the neural representation of pay and interest. Forty students were presented with 80 job names and asked to evaluate their job values while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Following fMRI, participants rated the jobs in terms of pay and interest. The fMRI data revealed that the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) was associated with job value representation, and the ventral and dorsal regions of the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC) were associated with pay and interest representations, respectively. These findings suggest that the neural computations underlying job valuation conform to a multi-attribute decision-making framework, with overall value signals represented in the vmPFC and the attribute values (i.e., pay and interest) represented in specific regions outside the vmPFC, in the PCC. Furthermore, anatomically distinct representations of pay and interest in the PCC may reflect the differing roles of the two subregions in future simulations.

Age-consistent phenomenological experience in remembering the past and imagining the past and the future.

We investigated age differences in mental time travel by comparing young, middle-aged and older adults, with equal number of participants in each age decade, from age 22 to 79. Participants generated and phenomenologically rated one experienced and one imagined past event, and two imagined future events. The results showed event type effects with richer phenomenology for experienced than imagined events, but no age group differences. Specifically, experienced events were more vivid, detailed, and were re-lived in the mind more than the other event types. All events were highly central to life, revealing no event type effects on centrality. For both past events, older age groups generated more distant events. There were no age group differences for temporal distance for the two future events. Both future events were from a near future. The results suggest that for events that are central to life, phenomenological experience may be similar across the adulthood.

Looking on the Bright Side: Aging and the Impact of Emotional Future Simulation on Subsequent Memory.

OBJECTIVES: When younger adults simulated positive future events, subsequent memory is positively biased. In the current studies, we explore age-related changes in the impact of emotional future simulation on subsequent memory. METHODS: In Experiment 1, younger and older adults simulated emotional future events before learning the hypothetical outcome of each event via narratives. Memory was assessed for emotional details contained in those narratives. In Experiment 2, a shorter temporal delay between simulation and narrative encoding was used to reduce decay of simulation memory over time. RESULTS: Future simulation did not bias subsequent memory for older adults in Experiment 1. However, older adults performed similar to younger adults in Experiment 2, with more liberal responses to positive information after positive simulation. DISCUSSION: The impact of an optimistic outlook on subsequent memory is reduced with age, which may be at least partly attributable to declining memory for future simulations over time. This work broadens our understanding of the functional consequences of age-related declines in episodic future simulation and adds to previous work showing reduced benefits of simulation with age on tasks tapping adaptive functions.

How imagining personal future scenarios influences affect: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

Imagining the future is a fundamental human capacity that occupies a large part of people's waking time and impacts their affective well-being. In this meta-analysis, we examined the effect of (1) positive future imagination and (2) negative future imagination on affect, and (3) compared the affective responses between imagining the future and remembering the past; lastly, we (4) examined potential moderating variables in this regard. We identified 63 experimental studies (N = 6813) from different research areas and combined studies that applied the best possible self imagination task, future worry induction, and episodic future simulation, respectively. Findings yielded that imagining the future has a moderate to strong impact on affect, and it has a stronger influence on affect compared to remembering the past. Relevant moderator variables in each research area were also identified. We discuss the findings for the field of psychology in general and clinical psychology in particular. More elaborate research on personal future imagination seems crucial for the further advancement of clinical applications for mental health complaints. We conclude with recommendations for future research on the impact of future imagination on affective well-being.

Emotional Mental Imagery Abnormalities in Monozygotic Twins With, at High-Risk of, and Without Affective Disorders: Present in Affected Twins in Remission but Absent in High-Risk Twins.

Background: Mental imagery abnormalities feature across affective disorders including bipolar disorder (BD) and unipolar depression (UD). Maladaptive emotional imagery has been proposed as a maintenance factor for affective symptomatology and a target for mechanism-driven psychological treatment developments. Where imagery abnormalities feature beyond acute affective episodes, further opportunities for innovation arise beyond treatments, such as for tertiary/relapse prevention (e.g., in remitted individuals) or primary prevention (e.g., in non-affected but at-risk individuals). The aim of our study was to investigate for the first time the presence of possible mental imagery abnormalities in affected individuals in remission and at-risk individuals for affective disorders using a familial risk design. Methods: A population-based cohort of monozygotic twins was recruited through linkage between the Danish national registries (N=204). Participants were grouped as: affected (remitted BD/UD; n = 115); high-risk (co-twin with history of BD/UD; n = 49), or low-risk (no co-twin history of BD/UD; n = 40). Twins completed mental imagery measures spanning key subjective domains (spontaneous imagery use and emotional imagery) and cognitive domains (imagery inspection and imagery manipulation). Results: Affected twins in remission reported enhanced emotional mental imagery compared to both low- and high-risk twins. This was characterized by greater impact of i) intrusive prospective imagery (Impact of Future Events Scale) and ii) deliberately-generated prospective imagery of negative scenarios (Prospective Imagery Task). There were no significant differences in these key measures between affected BD and UD twins in remission. Additionally, low- and high-risk twins did not significantly differ on these emotional imagery measures. There were also no significant differences between the three groups on non-emotional measures including spontaneous imagery use and cognitive stages of imagery. Conclusions: Abnormalities in emotional prospective imagery are present in monozygotic twins with affective disorders in remission-despite preserved cognitive stages of imagery-but absent in unaffected high-risk twins, and thus do not appear to index familial risk (i.e., unlikely to qualify as "endophenotypes"). Elevated emotional prospective imagery represents a promising treatment/prevention target in affective disorders.

Spontaneous Activation of Event Details in Episodic Future Simulation.

Episodic future simulation is supported by both the retrieval and recombination of episodic details. It remains unclear, however, how individuals retrieve episodic details from memory to construct possible future scenarios; for this people must use details related to the planned future events appropriately. A potentially relevant cognitive process is the spontaneous activation of intention observed in prospective memory (i.e., the intention superiority effect). Previous studies on prospective memory have shown that the approximation of retrieval opportunities for future intentions activate related information, suggesting that the intention superiority effect is context-sensitive. We hypothesized that the same cognitive process underlies future simulation-that is, details related to future events should spontaneously become activated at the appropriate moment of future simulation to make that simulation plausible. In Experiment 1, participants took part in future experiments and formed intentions to perform particular actions for the next experiments. Subsequently, they imagined events that could occur up until they arrived at the experimental room on the day of the next experiment. During this exercise, they did not imagine engaging in the required experimental task. We measured the conceptual activation of intention-related information via a recognition task using intended action words as targets. The results showed the intention superiority effect-concepts related to participants' future intentions became active when envisioning future events approaching the next experiment. In Experiments 2 and 3, we ensured that the intention superiority effect in future simulation was context-sensitive by adding a control condition that required participants to imagine events other than the approaching future experiments. These results indicated that concepts related to the intended actions were spontaneously activated when imagined future events became both temporally and spatially close to the future simulation. Our finding suggests that spontaneous activation of details approaching the context of a future simulation helps in constructing plausible future scenarios.

Seeing light at the end of the tunnel: Positive prospective mental imagery and optimism in depression.

Optimism is associated with positive outcomes across many health domains, from cardiovascular disease to depression. However, we know little about cognitive processes underlying optimism in psychopathology. The present study tested whether the ability to vividly imagine positive events in one's future was associated with dispositional optimism in a sample of depressed adults. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted, using baseline (all participants, N=150) and follow-up data (participants in the control condition only, N=63) from a clinical trial (Blackwell et al., 2015). Vividness of positive prospective imagery, assessed on a laboratory-administered task at baseline, was significantly associated with both current optimism levels at baseline and future (seven months later) optimism levels, including when controlling for potential confounds. Even when depressed, those individuals able to envision a brighter future were more optimistic, and regained optimism more quickly over time, than those less able to do so at baseline. Strategies to increase the vividness of positive prospective imagery may aid development of mental health interventions to boost optimism.

Preparing for what might happen: An episodic specificity induction impacts the generation of alternative future events.

A critical adaptive feature of future thinking involves the ability to generate alternative versions of possible future events. However, little is known about the nature of the processes that support this ability. Here we examined whether an episodic specificity induction - brief training in recollecting details of a recent experience that selectively impacts tasks that draw on episodic retrieval - (1) boosts alternative event generation and (2) changes one's initial perceptions of negative future events. In Experiment 1, an episodic specificity induction significantly increased the number of alternative positive outcomes that participants generated to a series of standardized negative events, compared with a control induction not focused on episodic specificity. We also observed larger decreases in the perceived plausibility and negativity of the original events in the specificity condition, where participants generated more alternative outcomes, relative to the control condition. In Experiment 2, we replicated and extended these findings using a series of personalized negative events. Our findings support the idea that episodic memory processes are involved in generating alternative outcomes to anticipated future events, and that boosting the number of alternative outcomes is related to subsequent changes in the perceived plausibility and valence of the original events, which may have implications for psychological well-being.

Neural changes associated with the generation of specific past and future events in depression.

It is well established that individuals affected by depression experience difficulty in remembering the past and imagining the future. This impairment is evident in increased rumination on non-specific, generic events and in the generation of fewer specific events during tasks tapping past and future thinking. The present fMRI study investigated whether neural changes during the construction of autobiographical events was evident in depression, even when key aspects of performance (event specificity, vividness) were matched. We employed a multivariate technique (Spatiotemporal Partial Least Squares) to examine whether task-related whole brain patterns of activation and functional connectivity of the hippocampus differed between depressed participants and non-depressed controls. Results indicate that although the depression group retained the ability to recruit the default network during the autobiographical tasks, there was reduced activity in regions associated with episodic richness and imagery (e.g., hippocampus, precuneus, cuneus). Moreover, patterns of hippocampal connectivity in the depression group were comparable to those of the control group, but the strength of this connectivity was reduced in depression. These depression-related reductions were accompanied by increased recruitment of lateral and medial frontal regions in the depression group, as well as distinct patterns of right hippocampal connectivity with regions in the default and dorsal attention networks. The recruitment of these additional neural resources may reflect compensatory increases in post-retrieval processing, greater effort and/or greater self-related referential processing in depression that support the generation of specific autobiographical events.