Changes in food and drink purchasing behaviour in England during the first 3 months of the COVID-19 pandemic: an interrupted time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic affected many health behaviours, including diet. We aimed to examine changes in food and drink purchasing during the first 3 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in England. METHODS: In this interrupted time-series analysis, we used transaction-level purchasing data for food and drink items bought for at-home (n=1245 households) and out-of-home consumption (n=226 individuals) for London and the North of England (Kantar GB). Outcomes included household-level weekly purchased total energy, energy from specific products, alcohol volume, and frequency of out-of-home purchasing occasions. We compared purchases between March 16 and June 11, 2020 (pandemic restrictions, the intervention) and Jan 1, 2019, to March 15, 2020 (counterfactual). The effect of the intervention was modelled using 2-part negative binomial regression models adjusted for time, season, festivals, region, and sociodemographic characteristics. Subgroup analyses explored interactions between the intervention and sociodemographic characteristics and usual purchasing levels. FINDINGS: The marginal mean estimate of total take-home energy purchased was 17·4% (95% CI 14·9-19·9; 6130 kcal) higher during the intervention period than during the counterfactual period. Increases of 35·2% (23·4-47·0; 505 mL) in take-home volume of alcoholic beverages and 1·2% (0·1-2·4; 165 kcal) in foods and drinks high in fat, salt, and sugar were observed. Reductions in purchased energy from ultraprocessed foods (-4·0%, -5·2 to -2·8; -541 kcal), and out-of-home purchasing frequency (-44·0%, -58·3 to -29·6; -0·6 days) were observed. Highest socioeconomic status was associated with largest increases in total purchased energy (increase of 7217 kcal, 95% CI 5450-8985, vs 2479 kcal, 935-4023, among low socioeconomic status), while older age groups reported fewer changes in purchasing. Higher usual purchasing levels were associated with greater reductions during pandemic restrictions and vice versa, except for the absolute difference in alcohol purchasing, which increased the most for those with higher pre-pandemic purchasing (lowest 123·2 mL, 95% CI 71·3-175·0; highest 708·3 mL, 381·3-1035·3). INTERPRETATION: Pandemic restrictions were associated with marked changes in purchasing, notably increases in energy and alcohol and decreases in ultra-processed-food and out-of-home purchasing, which differed by individual characteristics. Future research should ascertain if changes persisted, if these changes translate into changes in health, and whether other regions experienced similar effects. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) School for Public Health Research (SPHR).

The impact of price promotions on sales of unhealthy food and drink products in British retail stores.

We study the health impact of food and beverage price promotion strategies-multi-buy offers and price discounts, typically biased toward unhealthy product categories-in British consumer retail. We are the first to employ econometric models from the marketing literature to analyze the impact of price promotions with a focus on population health. Our dynamic, reduced form demand model incorporates endogenous inventory (stock piling), consumption rates imputed from repeat purchases and allows for unobserved household heterogeneity. We find that removing price discounts is more effective for reducing purchase volume compared to removing multi-buy offers for 10 out of 12 food and drink groups, particularly those products for which price reduction is more common than multibuy. We find that price promotions induce consumption-and waste -through behavioral effects, associated with increased household inventory (stockpiling).

Associations between the food environment and food and drink purchasing using large-scale commercial purchasing data: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence for an association between the local food environment, diet and diet-related disease is mixed, particularly in the UK. One reason may be the use of more distal outcomes such as weight status and cardiovascular disease, rather than more proximal outcomes such as food purchasing. This study explores associations between food environment exposures and food and drink purchasing for at-home and out-of-home (OOH) consumption. METHODS: We used item-level food and drink purchase data for London and the North of England, UK, drawn from the 2019 Kantar Fast Moving Consumer Goods panel to assess associations between food environment exposures and household-level take-home grocery (n=2,118) and individual-level out-of-home (n=447) food and drink purchasing. Density, proximity and relative composition measures were created for both supermarkets and OOH outlets (restaurants and takeaways) using a 1 km network buffer around the population-weighted centroid of households' home postcode districts. Associations between food environment exposure measures and frequency of take-home food and drink purchasing, total take-home calories, calories from fruits and vegetables, high fat, salt and sugar products, and ultra-processed foods (UPF), volume of take-home alcoholic beverages, and frequency of OOH purchasing were modelled using negative binomial regression adjusted for area deprivation, population density, and individual and household socio-economic characteristics. RESULTS: There was some evidence for an inverse association between distance to OOH food outlets and calories purchased from ultra-processed foods (UPF), with a 500 m increase in distance to the nearest OOH outlet associated with a 1.1% reduction in calories from UPF (IR=0.989, 95%CI 0.982-0.997, p=0.040). There was some evidence for region-specific effects relating to purchased volumes of alcohol. However, there was no evidence for an overall association between food environment exposures and take-home and OOH food and drink purchasing. CONCLUSIONS: Despite some evidence for exposure to OOH outlets and UPF purchases, this study finds limited evidence for the impact of the food environment on household food and drink purchasing. Nonetheless, region-specific effects regarding alcohol purchasing indicate the importance of geographical context for research and policy.

Changes in household food and drink purchases following restrictions on the advertisement of high fat, salt, and sugar products across the Transport for London network: A controlled interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Restricting the advertisement of products with high fat, salt, and sugar (HFSS) content has been recommended as a policy tool to improve diet and tackle obesity, but the impact on HFSS purchasing is unknown. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of HFSS advertising restrictions, implemented across the London (UK) transport network in February 2019, on HFSS purchases. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Over 5 million take-home food and drink purchases were recorded by 1,970 households (London [intervention], n = 977; North of England [control], n = 993) randomly selected from the Kantar Fast Moving Consumer Goods panel. The intervention and control samples were similar in household characteristics but had small differences in main food shopper sex, socioeconomic position, and body mass index. Using a controlled interrupted time series design, we estimated average weekly household purchases of energy and nutrients from HFSS products in the post-intervention period (44 weeks) compared to a counterfactual constructed from the control and pre-intervention (36 weeks) series. Energy purchased from HFSS products was 6.7% (1,001.0 kcal, 95% CI 456.0 to 1,546.0) lower among intervention households compared to the counterfactual. Relative reductions in purchases of fat (57.9 g, 95% CI 22.1 to 93.7), saturated fat (26.4 g, 95% CI 12.4 to 40.4), and sugar (80.7 g, 95% CI 41.4 to 120.1) from HFSS products were also observed. Energy from chocolate and confectionery purchases was 19.4% (317.9 kcal, 95% CI 200.0 to 435.8) lower among intervention households than for the counterfactual, with corresponding relative reductions in fat (13.1 g, 95% CI 7.5 to 18.8), saturated fat (8.7 g, 95% CI 5.7 to 11.7), sugar (41.4 g, 95% CI 27.4 to 55.4), and salt (0.2 g, 95% CI 0.1 to 0.2) purchased from chocolate and confectionery. Relative reductions are in the context of secular increases in HFSS purchases in both the intervention and control areas, so the policy was associated with attenuated growth of HFSS purchases rather than absolute reduction in HFSS purchases. Study limitations include the lack of out-of-home purchases in our analyses and not being able to assess the sustainability of observed changes beyond 44 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: This study finds an association between the implementation of restrictions on outdoor HFSS advertising and relative reductions in energy, sugar, and fat purchased from HFSS products. These findings provide support for policies that restrict HFSS advertising as a tool to reduce purchases of HFSS products.

The health, cost and equity impacts of restrictions on the advertisement of high fat, salt and sugar products across the transport for London network: a health economic modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Policies aimed at restricting the marketing of high fat, salt and sugar products have been proposed as one way of improving population diet and reducing obesity. In 2019, Transport for London implemented advertising restrictions on high fat, salt and sugar products. A controlled interrupted time-series analysis comparing London with a north of England control, suggested that the advertising restrictions had resulted in a reduction in household energy purchases. The aim of the study presented here was to estimate the health benefits, cost savings and equity impacts of the Transport for London policy using a health economic modelling approach, from an English National Health Service and personal social services perspective. METHODS: A diabetes prevention microsimulation model was modified to incorporate the London population and Transport for London advertising intervention. Conversion of calorie to body mass index reduction was mediated through an approximation of a mathematical model estimating weight loss. Outcomes gathered included incremental obesity, long-term diabetes and cardiovascular disease events, quality-adjusted life years, healthcare costs saved and net monetary benefit. Slope index of inequality was calculated for proportion of people with obesity across socioeconomic groups to assess equity impacts. RESULTS: The results show that the Transport for London policy was estimated to have resulted in 94,867 (4.8%) fewer individuals with obesity, and to reduce incidence of diabetes and cardiovascular disease by 2,857 and 1,915 cases respectively within three years post intervention. The policy would produce an estimated 16,394 additional quality-adjusted life-years and save £218 m in NHS and social care costs over the lifetime of the current population. Greater benefits (e.g. a 37% higher gain in quality-adjusted life-years) were expected to accrue to individuals from the most socioeconomically deprived groups compared to the least deprived. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis suggests that there are considerable potential health and economic gains from restricting the advertisement of high fat, salt and sugar products. The population health and economic impacts of the Transport for London advertising restrictions are likely to have reduced health inequalities in London.

Place matters: out-of-home demand for food and beverages in Great Britain.

Fiscal policies to influence consumption of food and beverages are increasing globally. Most food demand studies focus on understanding consumer response in the context of food and beverages consumed at home. Yet food and beverages consumed outside of the home play an increasing part in our diets, and demand elasticities for these settings are crucial for assessing the potential impact of such fiscal measures on promoting healthier diets. Utilising a large out-of-home food purchase dataset from Great Britain in 2016-17, this paper analyses the demand for seven food groups across four outlet types, including restaurants, fast-food outlets, food retails and other outlets. We use a demand system approach to estimate price and expenditure elasticites of demand, along with procedures to account for censoring, expenditure and price endogeneity. Our results indicate substantial variations in consumer responses across outlet types. Demand for main meals is expenditure and price elastic in restaurants but inelastic in fast-food outlets. For sugary drinks, the demand is generally price elastic except in fast food outlets. These differences across outlet types highlight the complexity in studying out-of-home food and beverage consumption and the importance of accounting for where consumers buy from when designing, implementing and evaluating consumer responses to fiscal measures.

Have socio-economic inequalities in sugar purchasing widened? A longitudinal analysis of food and beverage consumer data from British households, 2014-2017.

OBJECTIVE: To examine socio-economic inequalities in decreases in household sugar purchasing in Great Britain (GB). DESIGN: Longitudinal, population-based study. SETTING: Data were obtained from the GB Kantar Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) panel (2014-2017), a nationally representative panel study of food and beverages bought and brought into the home. We estimated changes in daily sugar purchases by occupational social grade from twenty-three food groups, using generalised estimating equations (household-level clustering). PARTICIPANTS: British households who regularly reported food and beverages to the GB Kantar FMCG (n 28 033). RESULTS: We found that lower social grades obtained a lower proportion of sugar from healthier foods and a greater proportion of sugar from less healthy foods and beverages. In 2014, differences in daily sugar purchased between the lowest and the highest social grades were 3·9 g/capita/d (95 % CI 2·9, 4·8) for table sugar, 2·4 g (95 % CI 1·8, 3·1) for sugar-sweetened beverages, 2·2 g (95 % CI 1·5, 2·8) for chocolate and confectionery and 1·0 g (95 % CI 0·7, 1·3) for biscuits. Conversely, the lowest social grade purchased less sugar from fruits (2·1 g (95 % CI 1·5, 2·8)) and vegetables (0·7 g (95 % CI 0·5, 0·8)) than the highest social grade. We found little evidence of change in social grade differences between 2014 and 2017. These results suggest that recent overall declines in sugar purchases are largely equally distributed across socio-economic groups. CONCLUSIONS: This suggests that recent population-level policy activity to reduce sugar consumption in GB does not appear to exacerbate or reduce existing socio-economic inequalities in sugar purchasing. Low agency, population-level policies may be the best solution to improving population diet without increasing inequalities.

Like parent, like child: a cross-sectional study of intra-household consumption patterns of non-alcoholic beverages among British households with children.

OBJECTIVE: Most research investigating sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) and health, conducted at the individual or household level, ignores potentially important intra-household dynamics. We analysed self-reported consumption relationships between children and adults, and between children of different ages, as well as the associations between intra-household consumption, BMI and sociodemographic characteristics. DESIGN: A cross-sectional analysis of survey data from Kantar Fast Moving Consumer Goods panellists in September 2017. SETTING: Great Britain. PARTICIPANTS: Random sample of 603 households with children under 18 years who regularly purchase non-alcoholic beverages. RESULTS: Low- or no-sugar/diet beverages dominate consumption across all age categories, particularly children under 12 years. SSB consumption increased as children became older. Children's reported consumption of SSB and low- or no-sugar/diet beverages was positively associated with consumption by adults; a child in adolescence had over nine times the odds of consuming SSB (adjusted OR 9·55, (95 % CI 5·38, 17·00), P < 0·001), and eight times the odds of consuming low- or no-sugar/diet drinks (adjusted OR 8·12, (95 % CI 4·71, 13·97), P < 0·001), if adults did so. In households with multiple children, consumption patterns of older siblings were associated with those of the younger; notably a perfect correlation between children aged 0 and 6 years consuming SSB if siblings 13-18 years did so, and children aged 7-12 years had 22 times the odds of consuming SSB if siblings aged 13-18 years did so (OR 22·33, (95 % CI 8·60, 58·01), P < 0·001). CONCLUSIONS: Multiple policies, targeting children as well as adults, such as fiscal levers and advertisement restrictions, are needed to reduce and prevent the consumption of SSB.

Patterns of beverage purchases amongst British households: A latent class analysis.

BACKGROUND: Beverages, especially sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), have been increasingly subject to policies aimed at reducing their consumption as part of measures to tackle obesity. However, precision targeting of policies is difficult as information on what types of consumers they might affect, and to what degree, is missing. We fill this gap by creating a typology of beverage consumers in Great Britain (GB) based on observed beverage purchasing behaviour to determine what distinct types of beverage consumers exist, and what their socio-demographic (household) characteristics, dietary behaviours, and weight status are. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used cross-sectional latent class analysis to characterise patterns of beverage purchases. We used data from the 2016 GB Kantar Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) panel, a large representative household purchase panel of food and beverages brought home, and restricted our analyses to consumers who purchase beverages regularly (i.e., >52 l per household member annually) (n = 8,675). Six categories of beverages were used to classify households into latent classes: SSBs; diet beverages; fruit juices and milk-based beverages; beer and cider; wine; and bottled water. Multinomial logistic regression and linear regression were used to relate class membership to household characteristics, self-reported weight status, and other dietary behaviours, derived from GB Kantar FMCG. Seven latent classes were identified, characterised primarily by higher purchases of 1 or 2 categories of beverages: 'SSB' (18% of the sample; median SSB volume = 49.4 l/household member/year; median diet beverage volume = 38.0 l), 'Diet' (16%; median diet beverage volume = 94.4 l), 'Fruit & Milk' (6%; median fruit juice/milk-based beverage volume = 30.0 l), 'Beer & Cider' (7%; median beer and cider volume = 36.3 l; median diet beverage volume = 55.6 l), 'Wine' (18%; median wine volume = 25.5 l; median diet beverage volume = 34.3 l), 'Water' (4%; median water volume = 46.9 l), and 'Diverse' (30%; diversity of purchases, including median SSB volume = 22.4 l). Income was positively associated with being classified in the Diverse class, whereas low social grade was more likely for households in the classes SSB, Diet, and Beer & Cider. Obesity (BMI > 30 kg/m2) was more prevalent in the class Diet (41.2%, 95% CI 37.7%-44.7%) despite households obtaining little energy from beverages in that class (17.9 kcal/household member/day, 95% CI 16.2-19.7). Overweight/obesity (BMI > 25 kg/m2) was above average in the class SSB (66.8%, 95% CI 63.7%-69.9%). When looking at all groceries, households from the class SSB had higher total energy purchases (1,943.6 kcal/household member/day, 95% CI 1,901.7-1,985.6), a smaller proportion of energy from fruits and vegetables (6.0%, 95% CI 5.8%-6.3%), and a greater proportion of energy from less healthy food and beverages (54.6%, 95% CI 54.0%-55.1%) than other classes. A greater proportion of energy from sweet snacks was observed for households in the classes SSB (18.5%, 95% CI 18.1%-19.0%) and Diet (18.8%, 95% CI 18.3%-19.3%). The main limitation of our analyses, in common with other studies, is that our data do not include information on food and beverage purchases that are consumed outside the home. CONCLUSIONS: Amongst households that regularly purchase beverages, those that mainly purchased high volumes of SSBs or diet beverages were at greater risk of obesity and tended to purchase less healthy foods, including a high proportion of energy from sweet snacks. These households might additionally benefit from policies targeting unhealthy foods, such as sweet snacks, as a way of reducing excess energy intake.

Framing and signalling effects of taxes on sugary drinks: A discrete choice experiment among households in Great Britain.

Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are in place in many countries to combat obesity with emerging evidence that these are effective in reducing purchases of SSBs. In this study, we tested whether signalling and framing the price increase from an SSB tax explicitly as a health-related, earmarked measure reduces the demand for SSBs more than an equivalent price increase. We measured the demand for non-alcoholic beverages with a discrete choice experiment (DCE) administered online to a randomly selected group of n = 603 households with children in Great Britain (GB) who regularly purchase SSBs. We find a suggestive evidence that a price increase leads to a larger reduction in the probability of choosing SSBs when it is signalled as a tax and framed as a health-related and earmarked policy. Respondents who did not support a tax on SSBs, who were also more likely to choose SSBs in the first place, were on average more responsive to a price increase framed as an earmarked tax than those who supported the tax. The predictive validity of the DCE, to capture preferences for beverages, was confirmed using actual purchase data. The findings imply that a well-signalled and earmarked tax on SSBs could improve its effectiveness at reducing the demand.

Reducing consumption of unhealthy foods and beverages through banning price promotions: what is the evidence and will it work?

OBJECTIVE: Increasing prevalence of overweight and obese people in England has led policymakers to consider regulating the use of price promotions on foods high in fat, sugar and salt content. In January 2019, the government opened a consultation programme for a policy proposal that significantly restricts the use of price promotions that can induce consumers to buy higher volumes of unhealthy foods and beverages. These proposed policies are the first of their kind in public health and are believed to reduce excess purchasing and, therefore, overconsumption of unhealthy products. This study summarises evidence relating price promotions to the purchasing of food and drink for home consumption and places it in the context of the proposed policy. DESIGN: Non-systematic review of quantitative analyses of price promotions in food and drink published in peer-reviewed journals and sighted by PubMed, ScienceDirect & EBSCOhost between 1980 and January 2018. RESULTS: While the impact of price promotions on sales has been of interest to marketing academics for a long time with modelling studies showing that its use has increased food and drink sales by 12-43 %, it is only now being picked up in the public health sphere. However, existing evidence does not consider the effects of removing or restricting the use of price promotions across the food sector. In this commentary, we discuss existing evidence, how it deals with the complexity of shoppers' behaviour in reacting to price promotions on foods and, importantly, what can be learned from it in this policy context. CONCLUSIONS: The current evidence base supports the notion that price promotions increase purchasing of unhealthy food, and while the proposed restriction policy is yet to be evaluated for consumption and health effects, there is arguably sufficient evidence to proceed. This evidence is not restricted to volume-based promotions. Close monitoring and proper evaluation should follow to provide empirical evidence of its intended and unintended effects.

Challenges experienced with early introduction and sustained consumption of allergenic foods in the Enquiring About Tolerance (EAT) study: A qualitative analysis.

BACKGROUND: The early introduction group participants of the Enquiring About Tolerance study were asked to undertake a proscriptive regimen of early introduction and sustained consumption of 6 allergenic foods. It was envisaged that this might be challenging, and early introduction group families were presented with an open-text question to express any problems they were experiencing with the regimen in recurring online questionnaires. OBJECTIVE: We sought to analyze these open-text questionnaire responses with the aim of identifying challenges associated with the introduction and regular consumption of allergenic foods. METHODS: Three combinations of interim questionnaire responses were selected for analysis, representing the early period (4, 5, and 6 months), middle period (8 and 12 months), and late period (24 and 36 months) of participation in the Enquiring About Tolerance study. Responses were assigned a code to describe their content and subsequently grouped into themes to portray key messages. A thematic content analysis allowed for conversion of qualitative codes into quantitative summaries. RESULTS: Three main challenges to allergenic food consumption were identified. First, some children refused the allergenic food, causing a sense of defeat among caregivers. Second, caregivers were concerned that allergenic foods might be causing a reaction, triggering a need for reassurance. Third, practical problems associated with the regimen compromised caregivers' capacity to persist. CONCLUSION: Understanding the challenges experienced with allergenic food introduction and sustained consumption is the necessary precursor to developing specific communication and support strategies that could be used by caregivers, practitioners, policymakers, and key stakeholders to address these problems.

What Happens to Patterns of Food Consumption when Food Prices Change? Evidence from A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Food Price Elasticities Globally.

Recent years have seen considerable interest in examining the impact of food prices on food consumption and subsequent health consequences. Fiscal policies targeting the relative price of unhealthy foods are frequently put forward as ways to address the obesity epidemic. Conversely, various food subsidy interventions are used in attempts to reduce levels of under-nutrition. Information on price elasticities is essential for understanding how such changes in food prices affect food consumption. It is crucial to know not only own-price elasticities but also cross-price elasticities, as food substitution patterns may have significant implications for policy recommendations. While own-price elasticities are common in analyses of the impact of food price changes on health, cross-price effects, even though generally acknowledged, are much less frequently included in analyses, especially in the public health literature. This article systematically reviews the global evidence on cross-price elasticities and provides combined estimates for seven food groups in low-income, middle-income and high-income countries alongside previously estimated own-price elasticities. Changes in food prices had the largest own-price effects in low-income countries. Cross-price effects were more varied and depending on country income level were found to be reinforcing, undermining or alleviating own-price effects.

Why fat taxes won't make us thin.

Increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity has led policy-makers to consider health-related taxes to limit the consumption of unhealthy foods and beverages. Such taxes are currently already in place in countries in Europe (e.g. Hungary, France and Finland) and in various states in the USA. Although these taxes are possibly efficient in reducing by a small amount the consumption of targeted products if the tax is fully transmitted to the consumer, there is too little available evidence on what will be consumed instead and whether these food substitutions undermine the hoped-for health benefits of the tax. We also know very little on how the food supply side will respond and what overall impact this will have. Without a proper appreciation of the potential indirect impacts we do not know the overall impact of taxes foods on unhealthy foods and beverages and further that there is a very real possibility that they may not be beneficial for health after all.

Impact of the Irish smoking ban on sales in bars using a large business-level data set from 1999 to 2007.

BACKGROUND: Ireland introduced comprehensive smoke-free workplace legislation in 2004. This study evaluates the economic impact of the workplace smoking ban on the value of sales in bars. METHODS: Data on the value of bar sales were derived from a large, nationally representative, annual business-level survey from 1999 to 2007. The economic impact of the smoking ban was evaluated according to geographical region and bar size. Analysis was based on an econometric model which controlled for background changes in population income and wealth and for investments made by the bars during this period. RESULTS: The overall impact of the Irish smoking ban on bar sales appears to be very small. The ban was associated with an increase in sales among medium to large bars in the Border-Midland-West (more rural) region of Ireland, and a small reduction in sales among large bars in the more urban, South-East region. We failed to find any evidence of a change in bar sales in the remaining categories studied. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that although some bars saw positive effects and some negative, the overall impact of the smoking ban on the value of sales in bars was negligible. These findings provide further supporting evidence that comprehensive smoke-free workplace legislation does not harm hospitality businesses while having positive health effects.

Policy vs Business: Well-Designed Health-Related Food Policy Should Not Let Industry Marketing Undermine its Intended Effects Comment on "Understanding Marketing Responses to a Tax on Sugary Drinks: A Qualitative Interview Study in the United Kingdom, 2019".

Health-related food policies, such as taxes on unhealthy food and drink, can act as catalysts for food industry to take action which may or may not align with the policy goal of improving population health. This commentary discusses the framework proposed by Forde et al in analysing the food industry marketing responses to the Soft Drink Industry Levy (SDIL), implemented in the United Kingdom in 2018. We suggest and discuss ways which may help broaden the use of the framework to other relevant policies. This includes widening the framework to cover strategies that may have not come up within the SDIL context but have been studied in other contexts. It would also be important to consider interactions between the strategies and with external factors influencing company decisions. Going forward, comprehensive evaluations of health-related policies should consider likely interactions with industry marketing strategies to fully understand potential impacts.

Associations between area deprivation and changes in the digital food environment during the COVID-19 pandemic: Longitudinal analysis of three online food delivery platforms.

Online food delivery services facilitate access to unhealthy foods and have proliferated during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study explores associations between neighbourhood deprivation and exposure to online food delivery services and changes in exposure by deprivation during the first year of the pandemic. Data on food outlets delivering to 661 postcode districts in London and the North of England in 2020 and 2021 were collected from three online delivery platforms. The association between area deprivation and overall exposure to online food delivery services was moderated by region, with evidence of a positive relationship between count of outlets and deprivation in the North of England, and a negative relationship in London. There was no association between area deprivation and growth of online food delivery services. Associations between neighbourhood deprivation and exposure to the digital food environment vary geographically. Consequently, policies aimed at the digital food environment need to be tailored to the local context.

Association Between Household Online Grocery Delivery Service Use and Food and Drink Purchase Behavior in England: Cross-Sectional Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Online grocery delivery services (OGDSs) are a popular way of acquiring food. However, it is unclear whether OGDS use is associated with the healthiness of purchases and whether there are sociodemographic differences in OGDS use. If so, the increased prevalence of OGDS use may have implications for population diet, and differential OGDS use could contribute to diet inequalities. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine whether OGDS use varies by sociodemographic characteristics and is associated with the amount and types of groceries purchased. METHODS: Item-level take-home food and drink purchase data (n=3,233,920 items) from households in London and the North of England were available from the 2019 UK Kantar fast-moving consumer goods panel (N=1911). Purchases were categorized as being bought online or in-store. We used logistic regression to estimate the likelihood of an above-median frequency of OGDS use by sociodemographic characteristics. We used Poisson regression to estimate the differences in energy and nutrients purchased by households that had above- and below-median OGDS use and the proportion of energy purchased from products high in fat, salt, and sugar (HFSS) online versus in-store among households that used both shopping methods (n=665). RESULTS: In total, 668 (35%) households used OGDSs at least once in 2019. Of the households that used OGDSs, the median use was 5 occasions in 2019. Households were more likely to have above-median use in London versus in the North of England (odds ratio 1.29, 95% CI 1.01-1.65) and if they had a higher annual household income (odds ratio 1.56, 95% CI 1.02-2.38 for ≥£50,000 [US $64,000] vs <£20,000 [$25,600]). Households with above-median OGDS use had a higher weekly mean purchase of energy by 1461 (95% CI 1448-1474) kcal per person compared with households with below-median OGDS use. For households that used a combination of in-store and online shopping, HFSS products made up a lower proportion (-10.1%, 95% CI -12% to -8.1%) of energy purchased online compared to in-store. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in grocery purchases between households with above- and below-median OGDS use could have positive or negative consequences. The extra energy purchased among households with above-median OGDS use could lead to overconsumption or food waste, which has negative consequences for population and environmental health. Alternatively, this extra energy may be replacing out-of-home purchasing, which tends to be less healthy, and may be beneficial for the population diet. Households made fewer HFSS purchases when shopping online compared to in-store, which may be due to differences in the shopping environment or experience, such as fewer promotions and advertisements when shopping online or not having to transport and carry purchases home. As higher-income households used OGDS more frequently, the implications of this sociodemographic pattern on dietary inequalities must be explored.

Impact of the smoking ban on the volume of bar sales in Ireland: evidence from time series analysis.

This paper is the first to estimate the economic impact of a comprehensive smoking ban in all enclosed public places of work, on bars in Ireland. The demand in bars, represented by a monthly index of sales volume, is explained by relative prices in bars, prices of alcohol sold in off-licences and the aggregate retail sales (ARS) as a proxy for general economic activity and incomes. The smoking ban is included into the model as a step dummy and the modelling is done using ARIMAX strategy. The results show a reduction in the volume of sales in bars by -4.6% (p<0.01) following the ban.

Persistent consumer response to a nationwide food safety recall in urban India.

Little is known about consumer response to food safety recalls in low- and middle- income countries. Using an event-study framework, this paper examines the immediate and long-term changes in noodle purchases after the nationwide removal of Maggi instant noodles from the market in India in 2015. We show that this recall had a negative impact on the purchases of Maggi noodles among urban households for at least two years. This provides evidence of the huge costs of recalls on food producers that can be leveraged by policymakers to promote food safety. We also find strong evidence for a positive spillover effect to non-Maggi noodles that is more persistent among households with more regular purchasing habits of Maggi noodles. This indicates that consumers with more persistent habits of buying a recalled product are less likely to stigmatize alike food products under different brands. Our results are robust to alternative assumptions of pre-trends in purchases and placebo tests.