Plans for Nationwide Serosurveillance Network in Vietnam.

In recent years, serosurveillance has gained momentum as a way of determining disease transmission and immunity in populations, particularly with respect to vaccine-preventable diseases. At the end of 2017, the Oxford University Clinical Research Unit and the National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology held a meeting in Vietnam with national policy makers, researchers, and international experts to discuss current seroepidemiologic projects in Vietnam and future needs and plans for nationwide serosurveillance. This report summarizes the meeting and the plans that were discussed to set up nationwide serosurveillance in Vietnam.

Efficacy of Communication Training of Community Health Workers on Service Delivery to People Who Inject Drugs in Vietnam: A Clustered Randomized Trial.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the efficacy of an intervention targeted to commune health workers (CHWs) who deliver services to people who inject drugs (PWID) in Vietnam. METHODS: From 2014 to 2016, we conducted a cluster randomized controlled trial of 300 CHWs and 900 PWID in 60 communes in 2 provinces of Vietnam. Intervention CHWs participated in training sessions to enhance their communication skills. Trained CHWs were asked to deliver individual sessions to PWID. We assessed the outcomes at baseline and at 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month follow-ups. RESULTS: Intervention CHWs showed greater improvement in provider-client interactions than did control CHWs at all follow-ups (range of difference = 3.33-5.18; P < .001). Intervention CHWs showed greater reduction in negative attitudes toward PWID at the 12-month follow-up (mean ±SD = 1.75 ±0.50; P < .001). PWID in the intervention group exhibited greater improvement in drug avoidance than did those in the control group from the 6-month follow-up on (range of difference = 1.21-1.65; P < .001). We observed no intervention effect on heroin use as measured by urinalysis. CONCLUSIONS: This intervention targeting CHWs could lead to desired outcomes for both CHWs and PWID. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT0213092.1.

Region-wide synchrony and traveling waves of dengue across eight countries in Southeast Asia.

Dengue is a mosquito-transmitted virus infection that causes epidemics of febrile illness and hemorrhagic fever across the tropics and subtropics worldwide. Annual epidemics are commonly observed, but there is substantial spatiotemporal heterogeneity in intensity. A better understanding of this heterogeneity in dengue transmission could lead to improved epidemic prediction and disease control. Time series decomposition methods enable the isolation and study of temporal epidemic dynamics with a specific periodicity (e.g., annual cycles related to climatic drivers and multiannual cycles caused by dynamics in population immunity). We collected and analyzed up to 18 y of monthly dengue surveillance reports on a total of 3.5 million reported dengue cases from 273 provinces in eight countries in Southeast Asia, covering ∼ 10(7) km(2). We detected strong patterns of synchronous dengue transmission across the entire region, most markedly during a period of high incidence in 1997-1998, which was followed by a period of extremely low incidence in 2001-2002. This synchrony in dengue incidence coincided with elevated temperatures throughout the region in 1997-1998 and the strongest El Niño episode of the century. Multiannual dengue cycles (2-5 y) were highly coherent with the Oceanic Niño Index, and synchrony of these cycles increased with temperature. We also detected localized traveling waves of multiannual dengue epidemic cycles in Thailand, Laos, and the Philippines that were dependent on temperature. This study reveals forcing mechanisms that drive synchronization of dengue epidemics on a continental scale across Southeast Asia.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Viruses at the Animal-Human Interface in Vietnam, 2003-2010.

Mutation and reassortment of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses at the animal-human interface remain a major concern for emergence of viruses with pandemic potential. To understand the relationship of H5N1 viruses circulating in poultry and those isolated from humans, comprehensive phylogenetic and molecular analyses of viruses collected from both hosts in Vietnam between 2003 and 2010 were performed. We examined the temporal and spatial distribution of human cases relative to H5N1 poultry outbreaks and characterized the genetic lineages and amino acid substitutions in each gene segment identified in humans relative to closely related viruses from avian hosts. Six hemagglutinin clades and 8 genotypes were identified in humans, all of which were initially identified in poultry. Several amino acid mutations throughout the genomes of viruses isolated from humans were identified, indicating the potential for poultry viruses infecting humans to rapidly acquire molecular markers associated with mammalian adaptation and antiviral resistance.

Valine/isoleucine variants drive selective pressure in the VP1 sequence of EV-A71 enteroviruses.

BACKGROUND: In 2011-2012, Northern Vietnam experienced its first large scale hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemic. In 2011, a major HFMD epidemic was also reported in South Vietnam with fatal cases. This 2011-2012 outbreak was the first one to occur in North Vietnam providing grounds to study the etiology, origin and dynamic of the disease. We report here the analysis of the VP1 gene of strains isolated throughout North Vietnam during the 2011-2012 outbreak and before. METHODS: The VP1 gene of 106 EV-A71 isolates from North Vietnam and 2 from Central Vietnam were sequenced. Sequence alignments were analyzed at the nucleic acid and protein level. Gene polymorphism was also analyzed. A Factorial Correspondence Analysis was performed to correlate amino acid mutations with clinical parameters. RESULTS: The sequences were distributed into four phylogenetic clusters. Three clusters corresponded to the subgenogroup C4 and the last one corresponded to the subgenogroup C5. Each cluster displayed different polymorphism characteristics. Proteins were highly conserved but three sites bearing only Isoleucine (I) or Valine (V) were characterized. The isoleucine/valine variability matched the clusters. Spatiotemporal analysis of the I/V variants showed that all variants which emerged in 2011 and then in 2012 were not the same but were all present in the region prior to the 2011-2012 outbreak. Some correlation was found between certain I/V variants and ethnicity and severity. CONCLUSIONS: The 2011-2012 outbreak was not caused by an exogenous strain coming from South Vietnam or elsewhere but by strains already present and circulating at low level in North Vietnam. However, what triggered the outbreak remains unclear. A selective pressure is applied on I/V variants which matches the genetic clusters. I/V variants were shown on other viruses to correlate with pathogenicity. This should be investigated in EV-A71. I/V variants are an easy and efficient way to survey and identify circulating EV-A71 strains.

Influenza infection rates, measurement errors and the interpretation of paired serology.

Serological studies are the gold standard method to estimate influenza infection attack rates (ARs) in human populations. In a common protocol, blood samples are collected before and after the epidemic in a cohort of individuals; and a rise in haemagglutination-inhibition (HI) antibody titers during the epidemic is considered as a marker of infection. Because of inherent measurement errors, a 2-fold rise is usually considered as insufficient evidence for infection and seroconversion is therefore typically defined as a 4-fold rise or more. Here, we revisit this widely accepted 70-year old criterion. We develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo data augmentation model to quantify measurement errors and reconstruct the distribution of latent true serological status in a Vietnamese 3-year serological cohort, in which replicate measurements were available. We estimate that the 1-sided probability of a 2-fold error is 9.3% (95% Credible Interval, CI: 3.3%, 17.6%) when antibody titer is below 10 but is 20.2% (95% CI: 15.9%, 24.0%) otherwise. After correction for measurement errors, we find that the proportion of individuals with 2-fold rises in antibody titers was too large to be explained by measurement errors alone. Estimates of ARs vary greatly depending on whether those individuals are included in the definition of the infected population. A simulation study shows that our method is unbiased. The 4-fold rise case definition is relevant when aiming at a specific diagnostic for individual cases, but the justification is less obvious when the objective is to estimate ARs. In particular, it may lead to large underestimates of ARs. Determining which biological phenomenon contributes most to 2-fold rises in antibody titers is essential to assess bias with the traditional case definition and offer improved estimates of influenza ARs.

Qualitative study of the feasibility of HPV vaccine delivery to young adolescent girls in Vietnam: evidence from a government-implemented demonstration program.

BACKGROUND: Introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine in national programs has proceeded apace since 2006, mostly in high-income countries. Recently concluded pilots of HPV vaccination in low-income countries have provided important lessons learned for these settings; however, rigorous evaluations of the feasibility of these delivery strategies that effectively reach young adolescents have been few. This paper presents results from a qualitative evaluation of a demonstration program which implemented school-based and health center-based HPV vaccinations to all girls in grade 6, or 11 years of age, for two years in four districts of Vietnam. METHODS: Using semi-structured interviews of 131 health and education staff from local, district, province, and national levels and 26 focus-group discussions with local project implementers (n = 153), we conducted a qualitative two-year evaluation to measure the impact of HPV vaccinations on the health and education systems. RESULTS: HPV vaccine delivery at schools or health centers was made feasible by: a. close collaboration between the health and education sectors, b. detailed planning for implementation, c. clearly defined roles and responsibilities for project implementers, d. effective management and supervision of vaccinations during delivery, and e. engagement with community organizations for support. Both the health and education systems were temporarily challenged with the extra workload, but the disruptions were short-lived (a few days for each of three doses) and perceived as worth the longer-term benefit of cervical cancer prevention. CONCLUSION: The learning from Vietnam has identified critical elements for successful vaccine delivery that can provide a model for other countries to consider during their planning of national rollout of HPV vaccine.

Population-level antibody estimates to novel influenza A/H7N9.

There are no contemporary data available describing human immunity to novel influenza A/H7N9. Using 1723 prospectively collected serum samples in southern Vietnam, we tested for antibodies to 5 avian influenza virus antigens, using a protein microarray. General-population antibody titers against subtype H7 virus are higher than antibody titers against subtype H5 and lower than titers against H9. The highest titers were observed for human influenza virus subtypes. Titers to avian influenza virus antigens increased with age and with geometric mean antibody titer to human influenza virus antigens. There were no titer differences between the urban and the rural location in our study.

Migration and persistence of human influenza A viruses, Vietnam, 2001-2008.

Understanding global influenza migration and persistence is crucial for vaccine strain selection. Using 240 new human influenza A virus whole genomes collected in Vietnam during 2001-2008, we looked for persistence patterns and migratory connections between Vietnam and other countries. We found that viruses in Vietnam migrate to and from China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Cambodia, Japan, South Korea, and the United States. We attempted to reduce geographic bias by generating phylogenies subsampled at the year and country levels. However, migration events in these phylogenies were still driven by the presence or absence of sequence data, indicating that an epidemiologic study design that controls for prevalence is required for robust migration analysis. With whole-genome data, most migration events are not detectable from the phylogeny of the hemagglutinin segment alone, although general migratory relationships between Vietnam and other countries are visible in the hemagglutinin phylogeny. It is possible that virus lineages in Vietnam persisted for >1 year.

Identification of H5N1-specific T-cell responses in a high-risk cohort in vietnam indicates the existence of potential asymptomatic infections.

BACKGROUND: Most reported human H5N1 viral infections have been severe and were detected after hospital admission. A case ascertainment bias may therefore exist, with mild cases or asymptomatic infections going undetected. We sought evidence of mild or asymptomatic H5N1 infection by examining H5N1-specific T-cell and antibody responses in a high-risk cohort in Vietnam. METHODS: Peripheral blood mononuclear cells were tested using interferon-γ enzyme-linked immunospot T assays measuring the response to peptides of influenza H5, H3, and H1 hemagglutinin (HA), N1 and N2 neuraminidase, and the internal proteins of H3N2. Horse erythrocyte hemagglutination inhibition assay was performed to detect antibodies against H5N1. RESULTS: Twenty-four of 747 individuals demonstrated H5-specific T-cell responses but little or no cross-reactivity with H3 or H1 HA peptides. H5N1 peptide-specific T-cell lines that did not cross-react with H1 or H3 influenza virus HA peptides were generated. Four individuals also had antibodies against H5N1. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first report of ex vivo H5 HA-specific T-cell responses in a healthy but H5N1-exposed population. Our results indicate that the presence of H5N1-specific T cells could be an additional diagnostic tool for asymptomatic H5N1 infection.

Surveillance of transmitted HIV drug resistance using matched plasma and dried blood spot specimens from voluntary counseling and testing sites in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, 2007-2008.

During 2007-2008, surveillance of transmitted human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) drug resistance (TDR) was performed following World Health Organization guidance among clients with newly diagnosed HIV infection attending voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) sites in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam. Moderate (5%-15%) TDR to nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) was observed among VCT clients aged 18-21 years. Follow-up surveillance of TDR in HCMC and other geographic regions of Vietnam is warranted. Data generated will guide the national HIV drug resistance surveillance strategy and support selection of current and future first-line antiretroviral therapy and HIV prevention programs.

Litchi-associated acute encephalitis in children, Northern Vietnam, 2004-2009.

Since the end of the 1990s, unexplained outbreaks of acute encephalitis in children coinciding with litchi harvesting (May-July) have been documented in the Bac Giang Province in northern Vietnam. A retrospective ecologic analysis of data for 2004-2009 involving environmental, agronomic, and climatic factors was conducted to investigate the suspected association between the outbreaks and litchi harvesting. The clinical, biological, and immunologic characteristics of the patients suggested a viral etiology. The ecologic study revealed an independent association between litchi plantation surface proportion and acute encephalitis incidence: Incidence rate ratios were 1.52 (95% CI 0.90-2.57), 2.94 (95% CI 1.88-4.60), and 2.76 (95% CI 1.76-4.32) for second, third, and fourth quartiles, respectively, compared with the lowest quartile. This ecologic study confirmed the suspected association between incidence of acute encephalitis and litchi plantations and should be followed by other studies to identify the causative agent for this syndrome.

The epidemiology of interpandemic and pandemic influenza in Vietnam, 2007-2010: the Ha Nam household cohort study I.

Prospective community-based studies have provided fundamental insights into the epidemiology of influenza in temperate regions, but few comparable studies have been undertaken in the tropics. The authors conducted prospective influenza surveillance and intermittent seroprevalence surveys in a household-based cohort in Vietnam between December 2007 and April 2010, resulting in 1,793 person-seasons of influenza surveillance. Age- and sex-standardized estimates of the risk of acquiring any influenza infection per season in persons 5 years of age or older were 21.1% (95% confidence interval: 17.4, 24.7) in season 1, 26.4% (95% confidence interval: 22.6, 30.2) in season 2, and 17.0% (95% confidence interval: 13.6, 20.4) in season 3. Some individuals experienced multiple episodes of infection with different influenza types/subtypes in the same season (n = 27) or reinfection with the same subtype in different seasons (n = 22). The highest risk of influenza infection was in persons 5-9 years old, in whom the risk of influenza infection per season was 41.8%. Although the highest infection risk was in school-aged children, there were important heterogeneities in the age of infection by subtype and season. These heterogeneities could influence the impact of school closure and childhood vaccination on influenza transmission in tropical areas, such as Vietnam.

Acceptance patterns and decision-making for human papillomavirus vaccination among parents in Vietnam: an in-depth qualitative study post-vaccination.

BACKGROUND: The GAVI Alliance's decision in late 2011 to invite developing countries to apply for funding for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine introduction underscores the importance of understanding levels of HPV vaccine acceptance in developing country settings. In this paper, we present findings from qualitative research on parents' rationales for vaccinating or not vaccinating their daughters (vaccine acceptance) and their decision-making process in the context of an HPV vaccination demonstration project in Vietnam (2008-2009). METHODS: We designed a descriptive qualitative study of HPV vaccine acceptability among parents of girls eligible for vaccination in four districts of two provinces in Vietnama. The study was implemented after each of two years of vaccinations was completed. In total, 133 parents participated in 16 focus group discussions and 27 semi-structured interviews. RESULTS: Focus group discussions and in-depth interviews with parents of girls vaccinated revealed that they were generally very supportive of immunization for disease prevention and of vaccinating girls against HPV. The involvement of the National Expanded Program of Immunization in the demonstration project lent credibility to the HPV vaccine, contributing to high levels of acceptance. For parents who declined participation, concerns about side effects, the possibility that the vaccine was experimental, and the possible impact of the vaccine on future fertility rose to the surface. In terms of the decision-making process, many parents exhibited 'active decision-making,' reaching out to friends, family, and opinion leaders for guidance prior to making their decision. CONCLUSION: Vietnam's HPV vaccination experience speaks to the importance of close collaboration with the government to make the most of high levels of trust, and to reduce suspicions about new vaccines that may arise in the context of vaccine introduction in developing country settings.

Epidemiology of a measles epidemic in Vietnam 2008-2010.

BACKGROUND: Vietnam conducted a measles catch-up supplementary immunization activity (SIA) during 2002-2003 that targeted children 9 months-10 years of age, followed by subnational SIAs targeting persons up to 20 years of age during 2004 and 2007-2008. A measles epidemic began among young adults in October 2008 in the northern region, spread nationwide during early 2009, and continued during 2010. METHODS: We reviewed national epidemiologic and laboratory surveillance data. Measles cases were defined and classified according to World Health Organization recommendations. RESULTS: From October 2008 through January 2010, 7948 confirmed measles cases were reported from 60 of 63 provinces, an incidence of 93 cases per million population. Incidence was 328 cases per million population among children age 1-4 years, 318 cases per million population among infants, and 271 cases per million population among persons aged 20-24 years. Few cases were reported among persons 7-17 or >27 years of age. Median age of cases trended downward over time in all regions. CONCLUSIONS: The 2002-2003 measles SIA protected its targeted age group, but this epidemic was not prevented by follow-up subnational SIAs in selected provinces during 2007-2008. Transmission began among young adults and was sustained among children. The outcome of Vietnam's 2010 SIA targeting children only and change in routine schedule may influence elimination strategies for other countries.

Transient Introgression of Wolbachia into Aedes aegypti Populations Does Not Elicit an Antibody Response to Wolbachia Surface Protein in Community Members.

Wolbachia is an endosymbiotic bacterium that can restrict the transmission of human pathogenic viruses by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Recent field trials have shown that dengue incidence is significantly reduced when Wolbachia is introgressed into the local Ae. aegypti population. Female Ae. aegypti are anautogenous and feed on human blood to produce viable eggs. Herein, we tested whether people who reside on Tri Nguyen Island (TNI), Vietnam developed antibodies to Wolbachia Surface Protein (WSP) following release of Wolbachia-infected Ae. aegypti, as a measure of exposure to Wolbachia. Paired blood samples were collected from 105 participants before and after mosquito releases and anti-WSP titres were measured by ELISA. We determined no change in anti-WSP titres after ~30 weeks of high levels of Wolbachia-Ae. aegypti on TNI. These data suggest that humans are not exposed to the major Wolbachia surface antigen, WSP, following introgression of Wolbachia-infected Ae. aegypti mosquitoes.

The first community outbreak of COVID-19 in Viet Nam: description and lessons learned.

OBJECTIVE: At the time of this study, the prevention of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) relied solely on nonpharmaceutical interventions. Implementation of these interventions is not always optimal and, consequently, several cases were imported into non-epidemic areas and led to large community outbreaks. This report describes the characteristics of the first community outbreak of COVID-19 in Viet Nam and the intensive preventive measures taken in response. METHODS: Cases were detected and tested for SARS-CoV-2 by real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Contact tracing and active surveillance were conducted to identify suspected cases and individuals at risk. Clinical symptoms were recorded using a standardized questionnaire. RESULTS: In Vinh Phuc province from 20 January to 3 March 2020, there were 11 confirmed cases among 158 suspected cases and 663 contacts. Nine of the confirmed cases (81.8%) had mild symptoms at the time of detection and two (18.2%) were asymptomatic; none required admission to an intensive care unit. Five prevention and control measures were implemented, including quarantining a community of 10 645 individuals for 20 days. The outbreak was successfully contained as of 13 February 2020. DISCUSSION: In the absence of specific interventions, the intensive use of combined preventive measures can mitigate the spread of COVID-19. The lessons learned may be useful for other communities.

Increasing HIV prevalence and injection drug use among men who have sex with men in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

Vietnam has been conducting HIV/sexually transmitted infection (STI) integrated bio-behavioral surveillance surveys on men who have sex with men (MSM) as well as other key populations since 2005. Although HIV prevalence in the Vietnamese general population remains below 1%, it is expected to be much higher among MSM.Data on HIV prevalence and sexual and drug use behaviors were collected from MSM in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) in 2006 (n = 397), 2009 (n = 399) and 2013 (n = 350) using respondent-driven sampling. Eligible participants were males, aged ≥15 years who reported having manual, oral, or anal sexual activity with males in the past year and lived, worked or socialized in HCMC.HIV seroprevalence among MSM was 5.8% in 2006, 16.1% in 2009 and 12.1% in 2013 and prevalence of at least one STI (syphilis, gonorrhea and/or chlamydia infection) was 11.4% in 2006 and 15.6% in 2009 (no data for 2013). Significant, but small, increasing trends were found for MSM who reported ever testing and receiving results for HIV and for HIV prevalence. No significant changes for condom use, injecting and non-injecting drug use, or and receipt of free condoms were observed.Although a small percentage of MSM reported injecting drugs, HIV was positively associated with ever injecting drugs. Programs targeting MSM should include screening and treatment for injection drug use to most effectively control the HIV/AIDS epidemic among MSM in HCMC.

Clinical features of human influenza A (H5N1) infection in Vietnam: 2004-2006.

BACKGROUND: The first cases of avian influenza A (H5N1) in humans in Vietnam were detected in early 2004, and Vietnam has reported the second highest number of cases globally. METHODS: We obtained retrospective clinical data through review of medical records for laboratory confirmed cases of influenza A (H5N1) infection diagnosed in Vietnam from January 2004 through December 2006. Standard data was abstracted regarding clinical and laboratory features, treatment, and outcome. RESULTS: Data were obtained for 67 (72%) of 93 cases diagnosed in Vietnam over the study period. Patients presented to the hospital after a median duration of illness of 6 days with fever (75%), cough (89%), and dyspnea (81%). Diarrhea and mucosal bleeding at presentation were more common in fatal than in nonfatal cases. Common findings were bilateral pulmonary infiltrates on chest radiograph (72%), lymphopenia (73%), and increased serum transaminase levels (aspartate aminotransferase, 69%; alanine aminotransferase, 61%). Twenty-six patients died (case fatality rate, 39%; 95% confidence interval, 27%-51%) and the most reliable predictor of a fatal outcome was the presence of both neutropenia and raised alanine aminotransferase level at admission, which correctly predicted 91% of deaths and 82% of survivals. The risk of death was higher among persons aged < or =16 years, compared with older persons (P < .001), and the risk of death was higher among patients who did not receive oseltamivir treatment (P = .048). The benefit of oseltamivir treatment remained after controlling for potential confounding by 1 measure of severity (odds ratio, 0.15; 95% confidence interval, 0.026-0.893; P = .034). CONCLUSION: In cases of infection with Influenza A (H5N1), the presence of both neutropenia and raised serum transaminase levels predicts a poor outcome. Oseltamivir treatment shows benefit, but treatment with corticosteroids is associated with an increased risk of death.

Modelling the progression of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in Vietnam and the opportunities for reassortment with other influenza viruses.

BACKGROUND: A novel variant of influenza A (H1N1) is causing a pandemic and, although the illness is usually mild, there are concerns that its virulence could change through reassortment with other influenza viruses. This is of greater concern in parts of Southeast Asia, where the population density is high, influenza is less seasonal, human-animal contact is common and avian influenza is still endemic. METHODS: We developed an age- and spatially-structured mathematical model in order to estimate the potential impact of pandemic H1N1 in Vietnam and the opportunities for reassortment with animal influenza viruses. The model tracks human infection among domestic animal owners and non-owners and also estimates the numbers of animals may be exposed to infected humans. RESULTS: In the absence of effective interventions, the model predicts that the introduction of pandemic H1N1 will result in an epidemic that spreads to half of Vietnam's provinces within 57 days (interquartile range (IQR): 45-86.5) and peaks 81 days after introduction (IQR: 62.5-121 days). For the current published range of the 2009 H1N1 influenza's basic reproductive number (1.2-3.1), we estimate a median of 410,000 cases among swine owners (IQR: 220,000-670,000) with 460,000 exposed swine (IQR: 260,000-740,000), 350,000 cases among chicken owners (IQR: 170,000-630,000) with 3.7 million exposed chickens (IQR: 1.9 M-6.4 M), and 51,000 cases among duck owners (IQR: 24,000 - 96,000), with 1.2 million exposed ducks (IQR: 0.6 M-2.1 M). The median number of overall human infections in Vietnam for this range of the basic reproductive number is 6.4 million (IQR: 4.4 M-8.0 M). CONCLUSION: It is likely that, in the absence of effective interventions, the introduction of a novel H1N1 into a densely populated country such as Vietnam will result in a widespread epidemic. A large epidemic in a country with intense human-animal interaction and continued co-circulation of other seasonal and avian viruses would provide substantial opportunities for H1N1 to acquire new genes.