Bayesian inference for prediction of survival probability in prime-boost vaccination regimes.

We focus on Bayesian inference for survival probabilities in a prime-boost vaccination regime in the development of an Ebola vaccine. We are interested in the heterologous prime-boost regimen (unmatched vaccine deliverys using the same antigen) due to its demonstrated durable immunity, well-tolerated safety profile, and suitability as a population vaccination strategy. Our research is motivated by the need to estimate the survival probability given the administered dosage. To do so, we establish two key relationships. Firstly, we model the connection between the designed dose concentration and the induced antibody count using a Bayesian response surface model. Secondly, we model the association between the antibody count and the probability of survival when experimental subjects are exposed to the Ebola virus in a controlled setting using a Bayesian probability of survival model. Finally, we employ a combination of the two models with dose concentration as the predictor of the survival probability for a future vaccinated population. We implement our two-level Bayesian model in Stan, and illustrate its use with simulated and real-world data. Performance of this model is evaluated via simulation. Our work offers a new application of drug synergy models to examine prime-boost vaccine efficacy, and does so using a hierarchical Bayesian framework that allows us to use dose concentration to predict survival probability.

[Effect of qingchang huashi recipe on IL-17 in the plasma and colonic mucosa of patients with ulcerative colitis].

OBJECTIVE: To detect the expression level of interleukin 17 (IL-17) in the plasma and colonic mucosa of patients with ulcerative colitis (UC), and to explore the synergistic mechanism of qingchang huashi recipe (QHR) combined with Mesalazine. METHODS: Recruited were 24 mild or moderate UC patients of damp-heat inner accumulation syndrome (DHIAS). Their samples of intestinal tissues were histologically graded. They were assigned to the combination group and the Western medicine (WM) group, 12 in each group. Besides, another 12 healthy volunteers were recruited as the healthy control group. QHR combined Mesalazine were given to patients in the combination group, while those in the WM group took Mesalazine. The therapeutic course for all was 3 months. By the end of treatment the expression level of IL-17 in the plasma and colonic mucosa was detected using ELISA. The infiltration of IL-17 in the intestinal mucosal tissue was detected by immunohistochemical SP method. RESULTS: The expression level of IL-17 in the plasma and colonic mucosa was significantly higher in UC patients than in healthy controls (P <0. 05). The higher the histological grading the higher the expression level. The expression level of IL-17 in plasma and colonic tissues decreased after treatment in the two treatment groups (P < 0.05). Besides, the expression level of IL-17 was lower in the combination group than in the WM group (P <0.05). CONCLUSION: QHR combined Mesalazine could synergically enhance the effect and effectively inhibit intestinal inflammation through down-regulating the expression of IL-17.

Design of a high counting efficiency sensor for 1.0 cubic feet per minute laser particle counter.

Based on the theory of Mie scattering, an optical sensor for a 1.0 cubic feet per minute laser particle counter is developed in this paper. First, an illumination optical path relying on aspherical lens and cylindrical lens for laser shaping was designed, and a narrow optical spot with the illumination in the vertical direction of the photosensitive area approximately distributed as a flat top was obtained. Second, the scattering light path was designed by using the theory of Mie scattering and geometric optics method. Then, the structure of the sampling air path was designed with reference to the principle of Laval nozzle, and the particle flow trajectory was verified by simulation using the fluid dynamics software Ansys Fluent. Finally, the performance of the optical sensor was measured with polystyrene latex (PSL) particles, and the results showed that the counting efficiency of the 0.3 µm particle size channel met the requirement of 50% ± 20% and the 0.5 µm particle size channel met the requirement of 100% ± 10%, which complied with the ISO 21501-4 standard.

Qingchang Huashi granule ameliorates experimental colitis via restoring the dendritic cell-mediated Th17/Treg balance.

BACKGROUND: The balance between T helper 17 (Th17) cells and regulatory T cells (Tregs) is involved in immunological tolerance. Destruction of immunological tolerance by dendritic cell (DC)-mediated T cells is involved in the pathogenesis of ulcerative colitis (UC). Qingchang Huashi granule (QCHS) has been confirmed in the treatment of UC involved by inhibiting the activation of DCs. The aim of this study was to investigate the mechanism through which QCHS restores the Th17/Treg balance by modulating DCs in the treatment of UC. METHODS: The effects of QCHS on Th17 cells, Tregs and DCs were detected in a 2,4,6-trinitrobenzene sulfonic acid (TNBS)-induced experimental colitis model. Furthermore, we injected QCHS-treated DCs into colitis model to test whether QCHS modulates the Th17/Treg balance via DCs. Tregs and Th17 cells were analyzed by FACS. IL-10, IL-17, and Foxp3 were measured by ELISA, Western blot and qRT-PCR. RESULTS: Both QCHS and QCHS-treated DCs improved colonic histopathology, diminished Th17 cell differentiation and inhibited IL-17 production while promoting CD4+CD25+Foxp3+ Treg differentiation and augmenting IL-10 and Foxp3 expression in colitis mice. Additionally, QCHS reduced CD86 and MHC-II expression on DCs, decreased IL-12 production ex vivo and restored the Th17/Treg ratio in the colitis model. CONCLUSION: The findings of this study indicate that QCHS ameliorates TNBS-induced colitis by restoring the DC-mediated Th17/Treg balance.

Traditional Chinese medicine combination therapy for patients with steroid-dependent ulcerative colitis: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Approximately 20% of patients with ulcerative colitis become steroid dependent. Azathioprine is recommended in steroid-dependent ulcerative colitis, but its side effects limit its use. Chinese herbal medicine has been widely used to treat ulcerative colitis in China. However, its effectiveness in steroid-dependent patients has not been evaluated. This study aims to investigate the efficacy of traditional Chinese medicine combination therapy with 5-aminosalicylic acid in patients with steroid-dependent ulcerative colitis. METHODS/DESIGN: This is a parallel, multicenter, randomized controlled trial. One hundred and twenty eligible patients will be randomly assigned to a traditional Chinese medicine group or azathioprine group. All patients will be given basic treatment, which includes steroids and 5-aminosalicylic acid. Patients allocated to the traditional Chinese medicine group will receive basic treatment plus Chinese herbal medicine granules, while patients in the azathioprine group will receive basic treatment plus azathioprine. The whole study will last 24 weeks. The primary outcome measure is the steroid-free remission rate. Secondary outcome measures are health-related quality of life, efficacy of endoscopic response, degree of mucosal healing, and inflammation indicators. DISCUSSION: Results from this study may provide evidence for the effectiveness of traditional Chinese medicine combined with 5-aminosalicylic acid in patients with steroid-dependent ulcerative colitis. The findings will provide a basis for further confirmatory studies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Chinese Clinical Trial Register, ChiCTR-IPR-15005760 . Registered on 2 January 2015.