Refining Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation-Related Stroke Using the P2-CHA2DS2-VASc Score.

BACKGROUND: In people with atrial fibrillation (AF), periods of sinus rhythm present an opportunity to detect prothrombotic atrial remodeling through measurement of P-wave indices (PWIs)-prolonged P-wave duration, abnormal P-wave axis, advanced interatrial block, and abnormal P-wave terminal force in lead V1. We hypothesized that the addition of PWIs to the CHA2DS2-VASc score would improve its ability to predict AF-related ischemic stroke. METHODS: We included 2229 participants from the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) and 700 participants from MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) with incident AF who were not on anticoagulants within 1 year of AF diagnosis. PWIs were obtained from study visit ECGs before development of AF. AF was ascertained using study visit ECGs and hospital records. Ischemic stroke cases were based on physician adjudication of hospital records. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios and 95% CIs of PWIs for ischemic stroke. Improvement in 1-year stroke prediction was assessed by C-statistic, categorical net reclassification improvement, and relative integrated discrimination improvement. RESULTS: Abnormal P-wave axis was the only PWI associated with increased ischemic stroke risk (hazard ratio, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.33-2.55) independent of CHA2DS2-VASc variables, and that resulted in meaningful improvement in stroke prediction. The ß estimate was approximately twice that of the CHA2DS2-VASc variables, and thus abnormal P-wave axis was assigned 2 points to create the P2-CHA2DS2-VASc score. This improved the C-statistic (95% CI) from 0.60 (0.51-0.69) to 0.67 (0.60-0.75) in ARIC and 0.68 (0.52-0.84) to 0.75 (0.60-0.91) in MESA (validation cohort). In ARIC and MESA, the categorical net reclassification improvements (95% CI) were 0.25 (0.13-0.39) and 0.51 (0.18-0.86), respectively, and the relative integrated discrimination improvement (95% CI) were 1.19 (0.96-1.44) and 0.82 (0.36-1.39), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Abnormal P-wave axis-an ECG correlate of left atrial abnormality- improves ischemic stroke prediction in AF. Compared with CHA2DS2-VASc, the P2-CHA2DS2-VASc is a better prediction tool for AF-related ischemic stroke.

Circulating Progenitor Cells and Racial Differences.

RATIONALE: Blacks compared with whites have a greater risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes. Impaired regenerative capacity, measured as lower levels of circulating progenitor cells (CPCs), is a novel determinant of adverse outcomes; however, little is known about racial differences in CPCs. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the number of CPCs, PC-mobilizing factors, PC mobilization during acute myocardial infarction and the predictive value of CPC counts in blacks compared with whites. METHODS AND RESULTS: CPCs were enumerated by flow cytometry as CD45med+ blood mononuclear cells expressing CD34+, CD133+, VEGF2R+, and CXCR4+ epitopes in 1747 subjects, mean age 58.4±13, 55% male, and 26% self-reported black. Patients presenting with acute myocardial infarction (n=91) were analyzed separately. Models were adjusted for relevant clinical variables. SDF-1α (stromal cell-derived factor-1α), VEGF (vascular endothelial growth factor), and MMP-9 (matrix metallopeptidase-9) levels were measured (n=561), and 623 patients were followed for median of 2.2 years for survival analysis. Blacks were younger, more often female, with a higher burden of cardiovascular risk, and lower CPC counts. Blacks had fewer CD34+ cells (-17.6%; [95% confidence interval (CI), -23.5% to -11.3%]; P<0.001), CD34+/CD133+ cells (-15.5%; [95% CI, -22.4% to -8.1%]; P<0.001), CD34+/CXCR4+ cells (-17.3%; [95% CI, -23.9% to -10.2%]; P<0.001), and CD34+/VEGF2R+ cells (-27.9%; [95% CI, -46.9% to -2.0%]; P=0.04) compared with whites. The association between lower CPC counts and black race was not affected by risk factors or cardiovascular disease. Results were validated in a separate cohort of 411 patients. Blacks with acute myocardial infarction had significantly fewer CPCs compared with whites ( P=0.02). Blacks had significantly lower plasma MMP-9 levels ( P<0.001) which attenuated the association between low CD34+ and black race by 19% (95% CI, 13%-33%). However, VEGF and SDF-1α levels were not significantly different between the races. Lower CD34+ counts were similarly predictive of mortality in blacks (hazard ratio, 2.83; [95% CI, 1.12-7.20]; P=0.03) and whites (hazard ratio, 1.79; [95% CI, 1.09-2.94]; P=0.02) without significant interaction. CONCLUSIONS: Black subjects have lower levels of CPCs compared with whites which is partially dependent on lower circulating MMP-9 levels. Impaired regenerative capacity is predictive of adverse outcomes in blacks and may partly account for their increased risk of cardiovascular events.

Progenitor Cells and Clinical Outcomes in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndromes.

RATIONALE: Circulating progenitor cells (CPCs) mobilize in response to ischemic injury, but their predictive value remains unknown in acute coronary syndrome (ACS). OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate the number of CPCs in ACS compared with those with stable coronary artery disease (CAD), relationship between bone marrow PCs and CPCs, and whether CPC counts predict mortality in patients with ACS. METHODS AND RESULTS: In 2028 patients, 346 had unstable angina, 183 had an acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and the remaining 1499 patients had stable CAD. Patients with ACS were followed for the primary end point of all-cause death. CPCs were enumerated by flow cytometry as mononuclear cells expressing a combination of CD34+, CD133+, vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 2+, or chemokine (C-X-C motif) receptor 4+. CPC counts were higher in subjects with AMI compared those with stable CAD even after adjustment for age, sex, race, body mass index, renal function, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, and smoking; CD34+, CD34+/CD133+, CD34+/CXCR4+, and CD34+/VEGFR2+ CPC counts were 19%, 25%, 28%, and 142% higher in those with AMI, respectively, compared with stable CAD. There were strong correlations between the concentrations of CPCs and the PC counts in bone marrow aspirates in 20 patients with AMI. During a 2 (interquartile range, 1.31-2.86)-year follow-up period of 529 patients with ACS, 12.4% died. In Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, heart failure history, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and AMI, subjects with low CD34+ cell counts had a 2.46-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.18-5.13) increase in all-cause mortality, P=0.01. CD34+/CD133+ and CD34+/CXCR4+, but not CD34+/VEGFR2+ PC counts, had similar associations with mortality. Results were validated in a separate cohort of 238 patients with ACS. CONCLUSIONS: CPC levels are significantly higher in patients after an AMI compared with those with stable CAD and reflect bone marrow PC content. Among patients with ACS, a lower number of hematopoietic-enriched CPCs are associated with a higher mortality.

Circulating electrolytes and the prevalence of atrial fibrillation and supraventricular ectopy: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Evaluating associations of circulating electrolytes with atrial fibrillation (AF) and burden of supraventricular arrhythmias can give insights into arrhythmia pathogenesis. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 6398 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, ages 71-90, with data on serum electrolytes (magnesium, calcium, potassium, phosphorus, chloride, sodium). Prevalence of AF was determined from electrocardiograms and history of AF hospitalizations. A subset of 317 participants also underwent electrocardiographic recordings for up to 14 days using the Zio® patch. Burden of other supraventricular arrhythmias [premature atrial contractions (PACs), supraventricular tachycardia] was determined with the Zio® patch. We used logistic and linear regression adjusting for potential confounders to determine associations of electrolytes with arrhythmia prevalence and burden. Among 6394 eligible participants, 614 (10%) had AF. Participants in the top quintiles of magnesium [odds ratio (OR) 0.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62, 1.08], potassium (OR 0.82, 95%CI 0.68, 1.00), and phosphorus (OR 0.73, 95%CI 0.59, 0.89) had lower AF prevalence compared to those in the bottom quintiles. No clear association was found for circulating chloride, calcium or sodium. Higher concentrations of circulating calcium were associated with lower prevalence of PACs in the 12-lead electrocardiogram, while higher concentrations of potassium, chloride and sodium were associated with higher PAC prevalence. Circulating electrolytes were not significantly associated with burden of PACs or supraventricular tachycardia among 317 participants with extended electrocardiographic monitoring. CONCLUSION: Concentrations of circulating electrolytes present complex associations with selected supraventricular arrhythmias. Future studies should evaluate underlying mechanisms.

Abnormal P-wave axis and myocardial ischemia development during mental stress.

Exposure to psychological stress has been associated with the development of sustained arrhythmias. Acute changes in atrial electrophysiology may serve as intermediate phenotypes for stress-induced atrial arrhythmia such as atrial fibrillation. We examined if acute mental stress was associated with the development of abnormal P-wave axis (aPWA) and the role played by stress-induced myocardial ischemia. A total of 359 patients (mean age = 56 ± 9.9 years; 62% men; 43% white) with stable coronary heart disease and normal baseline P-wave axis (between 0° and 75°) were studied. All patients underwent mental stress testing (speech task). A total of 46 (13%) patients developed abnormal P-wave axis during either stress or recovery (stress: n = 43, 12%; recovery: n = 12, 3%). A rise in heart rate during mental stress was associated with an increased risk of an abnormal P-wave axis (per 5-unit increase: OR = 1.37, 95%CI = 1.03, 1.30). Myocardial ischemia induced by mental stress was associated with an increased risk of aPWA in women (OR = 5.2, 95%CI = 1.7, 15.6) and not in men (OR = 0.1, 95%CI = 0.01, 1.01), p-interaction = 0.004). In conclusion, in a sizable proportion of patients, acute mental stress results in the development of an abnormal P-wave axis, and this phenomenon is related to increases in heart rate and, among women, mental stress-induced ischemia. Our data suggest that acute psychological stress can promote adverse transient electrical changes in the atria that may predispose to AF.

Association of N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) change with the risk of atrial fibrillation in the ARIC cohort.

BACKGROUND: Circulating N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) predicts incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF), but the association of longitudinal changes in NT-proBNP concentrations with incident AF has not been explored. METHODS: We studied 9705 individuals without prevalent AF in 1996-1998 and with available NT-proBNP measurements obtained in samples collected during two visits in 1990-1992 (visit 2) and 1996-1998 (visit 4) in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study. Participants were followed through the end of 2013. AF was ascertained from electrocardiograms, hospital discharge codes, and death certificates. Multivariable Cox regression was used to evaluate the association of absolute change in log-transformed NT-proBNP [ln(NT-proBNP)] with incident AF. We also assessed the impact of adding ln(NT-proBNP) change as a predictor of AF by difference in the C-statistic and net reclassification improvement (NRI). RESULTS: Over a median follow up of 16 years, there were 1503 incident cases of AF. The means (SD) ln(NT-proBNP) at visit 2 and visit 4 were 3.83 (1.01) and 4.35 (0.94), respectively. There was a 0.52 (0.79) increase in ln(NT-proBNP) over the 6-year period. Greater increases in ln(NT-proBNP) were associated with higher risk of AF [hazard ratio, 2.82 (95% confidence interval 2.34, 3.39), comparing top to bottom quintiles, and 1.74 (1.61, 1.87) per 1-unit increase in ln(NT-proBNP)]. Adding ln(NT-proBNP) change to a model with multiple predictors including baseline NT-proBNP had relatively limited impact in the C-statistic (increase from 0.748, 95%CI 0.736-0.761, to 0.762, 95%CI 0.750, 0.774). Adding ln(NT-proBNP) change to initial predictive models resulted in a categorical NRI of 0.062 (95% CI 0.033, 0.092) and a continuous NRI of 0.092 (95%CI, 0.017, 0.182). CONCLUSION: Positive NT-proBNP change is associated with an increased incidence rate of AF. Adding NT-proBNP change into the prediction model modestly improved incident AF prediction. Future studies should assess the value of monitoring NT-proBNP concentration among individuals at high risk of developing AF.

Inflammatory response to mental stress and mental stress induced myocardial ischemia.

BACKGROUND: Mental stress-induced myocardial ischemia (MSIMI) is associated with increased risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes, yet the underlying mechanisms are not well understood. We measured the inflammatory response to acute laboratory mental stress in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and its association with MSIMI. We hypothesized that patients with MSIMI would have a higher inflammatory response to mental stress in comparison to those without ischemia. METHODS: Patients with stable CAD underwent 99mTc sestamibi myocardial perfusion imaging during mental stress testing using a public speaking stressor. MSIMI was determined as impaired myocardial perfusion using a 17-segment model. Inflammatory markers including interleukin-6 (IL-6), monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), matrix metallopeptidase 9 (MMP-9) and high-sensitivity C reactive protein (hsCRP) were measured at rest and 90 min after mental stress. Results were validated in an independent sample of 228 post-myocardial infarction patients. RESULTS: Of 607 patients analyzed in this study, (mean age 63 ±â€¯9 years, 76% male), 99 (16.3%) developed MSIMI. Mental stress resulted in a significant increase in IL-6, MCP-1, and MMP-9 (all p <0.0001), but not hsCRP. However, the changes in these markers were similar in those with and without MSIMI. Neither resting levels of these biomarkers, nor their changes with mental stress were significantly associated with MSIMI. Results in the replication sample were similar. CONCLUSION: Mental stress is associated with acute increases in several inflammatory markers. However, neither the baseline inflammatory status nor the magnitude of the inflammatory response to mental stress over 90 min were significantly associated with MSIMI.

Incremental prognostic value of SPECT-MPI in chronic kidney disease: A reclassification analysis.

BACKGROUND: Traditional cardiovascular (CV) risk factors have limited predictive value of CV mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD, creatinine clearance less than 60 mL/minute per 1.73 m2). The aim of this study was to evaluate incremental and independent prognostic value of single-photon emission computerized tomography-myocardial perfusion imaging (SPECT-MPI) across continuum of renal function. METHODS: We retrospectively studied 11,518 (mean age, 65 ± 12 years; 52% were men) patients referred for a clinical indication of SPECT-MPI between April 2004 and May 2009. Primary end point was composite of cardiac death and non-fatal myocardial infarction (CD/MI). We examined the relationship of total perfusion defect (TPD) and CD/MI in multiple Cox regression models for CV risk factors and GFR. The incremental predictive value of TPD was examined using Harrell's c-index, net reclassification index (NRI), and integrated discrimination index (IDI). RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 5 years (25th to 75th percentiles, 3.0-6.5 years), 1,692 (14.5%) patients experienced CD/MI (740 MI and 1,182 CD). In a multivariable model adjusted for traditional CV risk factors and GFR, the presence of a perfusion defect was independently associated with increased risk of CD/MI (HR = 2.10; 95% CI 1.81, 2.43, p < .001). Using Cox regression, TPD improved the discriminatory ability beyond traditional CV risk factors and GFR [from AUC = 0.725, (95% CI 0.712-0.738) to 0.784, (95% CI 0.772-0.796), p < .0001]. Furthermore, TPD improves risk stratification of CKD patients over and above traditional CV risk factors and GFR [NRI = 14%, 95% CI (12%-16%, p < .001) and relative IDI = 60%, 95% CI (51%, 66%, p < .001)]. CONCLUSIONS: Across the spectrum of renal function, SPECT-MPI perfusion defects independently and incrementally reclassified patients for their risk of CD/MI, beyond traditional CV risk factors.

The association of QT interval components with atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Although abnormalities of the QT interval are associated with atrial fibrillation (AF), it is unclear whether ventricular depolarization (QRS duration) or repolarization (JT interval) is a more important marker of AF risk. METHODS: This analysis included 4,181 (95% white; 59% women) participants from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) who were free of baseline AF and major intraventricular delay. A linear scale was used to compute heart rate adjusted QT (QTa), QRS (QRSa ), and JT (JTa ) intervals. Prolonged QTa , QRSa , and JTa were defined by values greater than the sex-specific 95th percentile for each measurement. AF events were ascertained during the annual study electrocardiograms and from hospitalization discharge data. Cox regression was used to compute hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the associations of prolonged QTa , QRSa , and JTa with AF, separately. RESULTS: Over a mean follow-up of 12.1 years, a total of 1,236 (30%) AF events were detected. An increased risk of AF (HR = 1.50. 95% CI = 1.20, 1.88) was observed with prolonged QTa . When we examined the association between individual components of the QTa interval and AF, the risk of AF was limited to prolonged JTa (HR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.04, 1.65) and not prolonged QRSa (HR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.77, 1.30). Similar results were obtained per 1-SD increase in QTa (HR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.01, 1.13), QRSa (HR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.94, 1.06), and JTa (HR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.01, 1.13). CONCLUSIONS: The JT interval is a more important marker of AF risk in the QT interval among persons who do not have ventricular conduction delays.

Abnormal P-Wave Axis and Ischemic Stroke: The ARIC Study (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities).

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Abnormal P-wave axis (aPWA) has been linked to incident atrial fibrillation and mortality; however, the relationship between aPWA and stroke has not been reported. We hypothesized that aPWA is associated with ischemic stroke independent of atrial fibrillation and other stroke risk factors and tested our hypothesis in the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities), a community-based prospective cohort study. METHODS: We included 15 102 participants (aged 54.2±5.7 years; 55.2% women; 26.5% blacks) who attended the baseline examination (1987-1989) and without prevalent stroke. We defined aPWA as any value outside 0 to 75° using 12-lead ECGs obtained during study visits. Each case of incident ischemic stroke was classified in accordance with criteria from the National Survey of Stroke by a computer algorithm and adjudicated by physician review. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association of aPWA with stroke. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 20.2 years, there were 657 incident ischemic stroke cases. aPWA was independently associated with a 1.50-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.22-1.85) increased risk of ischemic stroke in the multivariable model that included atrial fibrillation. When subtyped, aPWA was associated with a 2.04-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.42-2.95) increased risk of cardioembolic stroke and a 1.32-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.71) increased risk of thrombotic stroke. CONCLUSIONS: aPWA is independently associated with ischemic stroke. This association seems to be stronger for cardioembolic strokes. Collectively, our findings suggest that alterations in atrial electric activation may predispose to cardiac thromboembolism independent of atrial fibrillation.

The association between acute mental stress and abnormal left atrial electrophysiology.

BACKGROUND: Acute stress may trigger atrial fibrillation (AF), but the underlying mechanisms are unclear. We examined if acute mental stress results in abnormal left atrial electrophysiology as detected by more negative deflection of P-wave terminal force in lead V1 (PTFV1 ), a well-known marker of AF risk. METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined this hypothesis in 422 patients (mean age = 56 ± 10 years; 61% men; 44% white) with stable coronary heart disease who underwent mental (speech task) stress testing. PTFV1 was defined as the duration (milliseconds) times the value of the depth (µV) of the downward deflection (terminal portion) of the P-wave in lead V1 measured on digital electrocardiograms (ECG). Electrocardiographic left atrial abnormality was defined as PTFV1 ≤ -4000 µV*ms. Mean PTFV1 values during stress and recovery were compared with rest. The percentage of participants who developed left atrial abnormality during stress and recovery was compared with the percentage at rest. Compared with rest, PTFV1 became more negative during mental stress (mean change =  -348, 95% CI = [-515, -182]; P < 0.001) and no change was observed at recovery (mean change = 12, 95%CI = [-148, 172]; P = 0.89). A larger percentage of participants showed left atrial abnormality on ECGs obtained at stress (n = 163, 39%) and recovery (n = 142, 34%) compared with rest (n = 127, 30%). CONCLUSION: Acute mental stress alters left atrial electrophysiology, suggesting that stressful situations promote adverse transient electrical changes to provide the necessary substrate for AF.

Fine particulate air pollution and premature ventricular contractions: The REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) Study.

BACKGROUND: It is unknown if higher levels of ambient particulate matter (PM) exposure increase the risk for premature ventricular contractions (PVC) in a population-based study of men and women, and if this relationship varies by race or sex. METHODS: We examined the association of PM <2.5µm in diameter (PM2.5) concentration with PVCs in 26,121 (mean age=64±9.3 years; 55% female; 41% black) participants from the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study. Estimates of short- (2-week) and long-term (1-year) PM2.5 exposures were computed prior to the baseline visit using geographic information system data on the individual level at the coordinates of study participants' residences. PVCs were identified from baseline electrocardiograms. RESULTS: PVCs were detected in 1719 (6.6%) study participants. Short- (OR=1.08, 95%CI=1.03, 1.14) and long- (OR=1.06, 95%CI=1.01, 1.12) term PM2.5 exposures were associated with PVCs. Interactions were not detected by race or sex. An interaction between short-term PM2.5 exposure and PVCs was detected for those with cardiovascular disease (OR=1.16, 95%CI=1.06, 1.27) compared with those without cardiovascular disease (OR=1.05, 95%CI=0.99, 1.12; p-interaction=0.027). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that PM2.5 exposure is associated with an increased risk for PVCs in a biracial population-based study of men and women. We also have identified persons with cardiovascular disease as an at-risk population for PVCs when increases in short-term PM2.5 concentration occur.

Predictors of electrocardiographic abnormalities in type 1 Diabetes: the Wisconsin Epidemiologic Study of Diabetic Retinopathy.

PURPOSE: To determine the incidence and determinants of developing abnormalities on the 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) in persons with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: We evaluated the distribution of ECG abnormalities and risk factors for developing new abnormalities in 266 (mean age = 44 years ± 9.0; 50 % female) people with type 1 diabetes from the Wisconsin Epidemiologic Study of Diabetic Retinopathy. This analysis included participants with complete ECG data from study visit 5 (2000-2001) and follow-up ECGs from study visit 7 (2012-2014). ECG abnormalities were classified as major and minor according to Minnesota Code Classification. RESULTS: At baseline, 94 (35 %) participants had at least one ECG abnormality, including 13 major ECG abnormalities. At follow-up, 117 (44 %) participants developed at least one new ECG abnormality, including 35 new major ECG abnormalities. In a multivariable logistic regression model, older age (per 5-year increase: OR = 1.31, 95 % CI = 1.08, 1.60) was associated with the development of at least one new ECG abnormality, while serum HDL cholesterol (per 10-unit increase: OR = 0.98, 95 % CI = 0.96, 1.00) was protective against developing new ECG abnormalities. CONCLUSIONS: The development of new ECG abnormalities is common in type 1 diabetes. Older age and HDL cholesterol are independent risk factors for developing new ECG abnormalities. Further research is needed to determine whether routine ECG screening is indicated in people with type 1 diabetes to identify those with underlying subclinical coronary heart disease.

Electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy predicts atrial fibrillation independent of left ventricular mass.

BACKGROUND: Although left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) detected by electrocardiography (ECG-LVH) and echocardiography (echo-LVH) independently predict cardiovascular disease events, it is unclear if ECG-LVH and echo-LVH independently predict atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS: This analysis included 4,904 participants (40% male; 85% white) from the Cardiovascular Health Study who were free of baseline AF and major intraventricular conduction delays. ECG-LVH was defined by Minnesota Code Classification from baseline ECG data. Echo-LVH was defined by sex-specific left ventricular mass values >95th sex-specific percentiles. Incident AF events were identified during the annual study ECGs and from hospitalization discharge data. Cox regression was used to compute hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association of ECG-LVH and echo-LVH with incident AF, separately. RESULTS: ECG-LVH was detected in 224 (4.6%) participants and echo-LVH was present in 231 (4.7%) participants. Over a median follow-up of 11.9 years, a total of 1,430 AF events were detected. In a multivariable Cox model adjusted for age, sex, race, education, income, smoking, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, body mass index, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, aspirin, antihypertensive medications, and cardiovascular disease, ECG-LVH (HR = 1.50; 95% CI = 1.18, 1.90) and echo-LVH (HR = 1.39; 95% CI = 1.09, 1.78) were independently associated with AF. When ECG-LVH (HR = 1.47, 95% CI = 1.16, 1.87) and echo-LVH (HR = 1.36, 1.07, 1.75) were included in the same model, both were predictive of incident AF. CONCLUSION: The association of ECG-LVH with AF is not dependent on left ventricular mass detected by echocardiography, suggesting that abnormalities in cardiac electrophysiology provide a distinct profile in the prediction of AF.

Frontal QRS-T Angle and the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation in the Elderly.

BACKGROUND: Frontal QRS-T angle reflects changes in regional action potential duration and the direction of repolarization. Although it has been suggested that abnormal ventricular repolarization predisposes to atrial arrhythmias, it is unknown whether abnormal frontal QRS-T angle is associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS: We examined the association between frontal QRS-T angle and AF in 4282 participants (95% white; 41% male) from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS). QRS-T angle was computed from baseline electrocardiogram data. Abnormal QRS-T angle was defined as values greater than the sex-specific 95th percentile (men >131°; women: >104°). AF cases were identified from study electrocardiograms and from hospitalization discharge data through December 31, 2010. Cox regression was used to compute hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between abnormal QRS-T angle and AF. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 12.1 years, a total of 1276 (30%) participants developed AF. In a Cox regression model, adjusted for socio-demographics and known AF risk factors, abnormal QRS-T angle was associated with a 55% increased risk of AF (HR = 1.55, 95%CI = 1.23, 1.97). When QRS-T angle was examined as a continuous variable, each 10° increase was associated with a 3% increased risk of AF (HR = 1.03, 95%CI = 1.01, 1.05). This finding was consistent in subgroups stratified by age, sex, and race. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that an abnormal frontal QRS-T angle on the electrocardiogram provides important prognostic information regarding AF risk in the elderly, and further implicate ventricular repolarization abnormalities in the pathogenesis of AF.

Intravenous vs Oral Acetaminophen as an Adjunct to Multimodal Analgesia After Total Knee Arthroplasty: A Prospective, Randomized, Double-Blind Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of intravenous (IV) acetaminophen compared with its oral formulation for postoperative analgesia is unknown. We hypothesized that the addition of acetaminophen to a multimodal analgesia regimen would provide improved pain management in patients after total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and that the effect of acetaminophen would be variable based on the route of delivery. METHODS: The study was a single-center, randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled clinical trial on the efficacy of IV vs oral acetaminophen in patients undergoing unilateral TKA. One hundred seventy-four subjects were randomized to one of the 3 groups: IV acetaminophen group (IV group, n = 57) received 1 g IV acetaminophen and oral placebo before postanesthesia care unit (PACU) admission; oral acetaminophen group (PO group, n = 58) received 1 g oral acetaminophen and volume-matched IV normal saline; placebo group (Placebo group, n = 59) received oral placebo and volume-matched IV normal saline. Pain scores were obtained every 15 minutes during PACU stay. Average pain scores, maximum pain score, and pain scores before physical therapy were compared among the 3 groups. Secondary outcomes included total opiate consumption, time to PACU discharge, time to rescue analgesia, and time to breakthrough pain. RESULTS: The average PACU pain score was similar in the IV group (0.56 ± 0.99 [mean ± standard deviation]) compared with the PO group (0.67 ± 1.20; P = .84) and Placebo group (0.58 ± 0.99; P = .71). Total opiate consumption at 6 hours (0.47 mg hydromorphone equivalents ± 0.56 vs 0.54 ± 0.53 vs 0.54 ± 0.61; P = .69) and at 24 hours (1.25 ± 1.30 vs 1.49 ± 1.34 vs 1.36 ± 1.31; P = .46) were also similar between the IV, PO, and Placebo groups. No significant differences were found between all groups for any other outcome. CONCLUSION: Neither IV nor oral acetaminophen provides additional analgesia in the immediate postoperative period when administered as an adjunct to multimodal analgesia in patients undergoing TKA in the setting of a spinal anesthetic.

Atrial Fibrillation and Risk of ST-Segment-Elevation Versus Non-ST-Segment-Elevation Myocardial Infarction: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.

BACKGROUND: It has recently been reported that atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction (MI). However, the mechanism underlying this association is currently unknown. Further study of the relationship of AF with the type of MI (ST-segment-elevation MI [STEMI] versus non-ST-segment-elevation MI [NSTEMI]) might shed light on the potential mechanisms. METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined the association between AF and incident MI in 14 462 participants (mean age, 54 years; 56% women; 26% blacks) from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study who were free of coronary heart disease at baseline (1987-1989) with follow-up through December 31, 2010. AF cases were identified from study visit ECGs and by review of hospital discharge records. Incident MI and its types were ascertained by an independent adjudication committee. Over a median follow-up of 21.6 years, 1374 MI events occurred (829 NSTEMIs, 249 STEMIs, 296 unclassifiable MIs). In a multivariable-adjusted model, AF (n=1545) as a time-varying variable was associated with a 63% increased risk of MI (hazard ratio,1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.32-2.02). However, AF was associated with NSTEMI (hazard ratio, 1.80; 95% confidence interval, 1.39-2.31) but not STEMI (hazard ratio, 0.49; 95% confidence interval, 0.18-1.34; P for hazard ratio comparison=0.004). Combining the unclassifiable MI group with either STEMI or NSTEMI did not change this conclusion. The association between AF and MI, total and NSTEMI, was stronger in women than in men (P for interaction <0.01 for both). CONCLUSIONS: AF is associated with an increased risk of incident MI, especially in women. However, this association is limited to NSTEMI.

Electrocardiographic left atrial abnormality and stroke subtype in the atherosclerosis risk in communities study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between abnormally increased P-wave terminal force in lead V1 , an electrocardiographic (ECG) marker of left atrial abnormality, and incident ischemic stroke subtypes. We hypothesized that associations would be stronger with nonlacunar stroke, given that we expected left atrial abnormality to reflect the risk of thromboembolism rather than in situ cerebral small-vessel occlusion. METHODS: Our cohort comprised 14,542 participants 45 to 64 years of age prospectively enrolled in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study and free of clinically apparent atrial fibrillation (AF) at baseline. Left atrial abnormality was defined as PTFV1 >4,000µV*ms. Outcomes were adjudicated ischemic stroke, nonlacunar (including cardioembolic) ischemic stroke, and lacunar stroke. RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 22 years (interquartile range, 19-23 years), 904 participants (6.2%) experienced a definite or probable ischemic stroke. A higher incidence of stroke occurred in those with baseline left atrial abnormality (incidence rate per 1,000 person-years, 6.3; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.4-7.4) than in those without (incidence rate per 1,000 person-years, 2.9; 95% CI: 2.7-3.1; p < 0.001). In Cox regression models adjusted for potential confounders and incident AF, left atrial abnormality was associated with incident ischemic stroke (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.33; 95% CI: 1.11-1.59). This association was limited to nonlacunar stroke (HR, 1.49; 95% CI: 1.07-2.07) as opposed to lacunar stroke (HR, 0.89; 95% CI: 0.57-1.40). INTERPRETATION: We found an association between ECG-defined left atrial abnormality and subsequent nonlacunar ischemic stroke. Our findings suggest that an underlying atrial cardiopathy may cause left atrial thromboembolism in the absence of recognized AF.

Premature Atrial Contractions on the Screening Electrocardiogram and Risk of Ischemic Stroke: The Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke Study.

BACKGROUND: It is currently unknown if premature atrial contractions (PACs) detected on the routine screening electrocardiogram are associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke. METHODS: We examined the association between PACs and ischemic stroke in 22,975 (mean age 64 ± 9.2; 56% women; 40% black) participants from the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke study. Participants who were free of stroke at baseline were included. PACs were detected from centrally read electrocardiograms at baseline. Cox regression was used to examine the association between PACs and ischemic stroke events through March 31, 2014. RESULTS: PACs were present in 1,687 (7.3%) participants at baseline. In a Cox regression model adjusted for stroke risk factors and potential confounders, PACs were associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke (hazards ratio (HR) 1.34, 95% CI 1.04-1.74). The relationship was limited to non-lacunar infarcts (HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.08-1.87), and not lacunar strokes (HR 1.01, 95% CI 0.51-2.03). An interaction by sex was detected, with the association between PACs and ischemic stroke being stronger among women (HR 1.82, 95% CI 1.29-2.56) than men (HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.69-1.52; p-interaction = 0.0095). CONCLUSION: PACs detected on the routine electrocardiogram are associated with an increased risk for non-lacunar ischemic strokes, especially in women.

Peripheral arterial disease is associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation in the elderly.

AIMS: To examine the relationship between peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and atrial fibrillation (AF) in a population-based cohort study of older adults. METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined the relationship between PAD and AF in 5143 participants (85% white, 43% male) in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), a longitudinal, observational study of adults aged 65 years and older. Peripheral arterial disease was defined by abnormal ankle-brachial index (ABI) values (<1.0 or >1.4). Incident AF events were ascertained by self-reported history, study electrocardiograms, and hospitalization discharge records. Cox regression was used to compute hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between PAD and AF. Over a median follow-up of 11.7 years, a total of 1521 participants developed AF. The incidence rate (per 1000 person-years) of AF was higher in those with PAD (incidence rate = 32.9, 95% CI = 29.5, 36.7) than those without PAD (incidence rate = 23.3, 95% CI = 22.0, 24.6). In a multivariate Cox regression analysis, PAD was associated with an increased risk for AF (HR = 1.52, 95% CI = 1.34, 1.72). Each 0.1 decrease in the ABI was associated with a 6% increase in the risk for AF (HR = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.02, 1.10). The associations of high (>1.4) and low (<1.0) ABI values with AF were examined separately and were in the same direction as the main result for PAD (ABI < 1.0: HR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.08, 1.42; ABI > 1.4: HR = 1.33, 95% CI = 0.95, 1.86). CONCLUSION: The presence of PAD should alert practitioners to the increased risk of AF. Elderly patients with PAD possibly will benefit from routine electrocardiographic screening to identify AF events.