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BACKGROUND: India has made substantial progress in improving child health in recent years. However, the country continues to account for a large number of vaccine preventable child deaths. We estimated wealth-related full immunization inequalities in India. We also calculated the degree to which predisposing, reinforcing, and enabling factors contribute to these inequalities. METHODS: We used data from the two rounds of a large nationally representative survey done in all states in India in 2005-06 (n = 9582) and 2015-16 (n = 49,284). Full immunization status was defined as three doses of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine, three doses of polio vaccine, one dose of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccine, and one dose of measles vaccine in children 12-23 months. We compared full immunization coverage by wealth quintiles using descriptive statistics. We calculated concentration indices for full immunization coverage at the national and state levels. Using predisposing, reinforcing, and enabling factors associated with full immunization status identified from the literature, we applied a generalized linear model (GLM) framework with a binomial distribution and an identity link to decompose the concentration index. RESULTS: National full immunization coverage increased from 43.65% in 2005-06 to 62.46% in 2015-16. Overall, full immunization coverage in both 2005-06 and 2015-16 in all states was lowest in children from poorer households and improved with increasing socioeconomic status. The national concentration index decreased from 0.36 to 0.13 between the two study periods, indicating a reduction in poor-rich inequality. Similar reductions were observed for most states, except in states where inequalities were already minimal (i.e., Tamil Nadu) and in some northeastern states (i.e., Meghalaya and Manipur). In 2005-06, the contributors to wealth-related full immunization inequality were antenatal care, maternal education, and socioeconomic status. The same factors contributed to full immunization inequality in 2015-16 in addition to difficulty reaching a health facility. CONCLUSIONS: Immunization coverage and wealth-related equality have improved nationally and in most states over the last decade in India. Targeted, context-specific interventions could help address overall wealth-related full immunization inequalities. Intensified government efforts could help in this regard, particularly in high-focus states where child mortality remains high.
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Cobertura de Vacunación , Vacunación , Niño , Femenino , Humanos , Inmunización , Programas de Inmunización , India , Lactante , Embarazo , Factores SocioeconómicosRESUMEN
New vaccine policy adoption is a complex process, especially in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs), requiring country policymakers to navigate challenges such as competing priorities, human and financial resource constraints, and limited logistical capacity. Since the Expanded Programme on Immunization's (EPI) beginning, most new vaccine introductions under this structure have not been aimed at adult populations. The majority of adult vaccines offered under the EPI are not typically tested among and tailored for pregnant persons, except those that are specifically recommended for pregnancy. Given that new maternal vaccines, including RSV and GBS vaccines, are on the horizon, it is important to understand what barriers may arise during the policy development and vaccine introduction process. In this study, we sought to understand information needs among maternal immunization policymakers and decision-makers in Kenya for new vaccine maternal policy adoption through in-depth interviews with 20 participants in Nakuru and Mombasa counties in Kenya. Results were mapped to an adapted version of an established framework by Levine et al., (2010) focused on new vaccine introduction in LMICs. Participants reported that the policy process for new maternal vaccine introduction requires substantial evidence as well as coordination among diverse stakeholders. Importantly, our findings suggest that the process for new maternal vaccines does not end with the adoption of a new policy, as intended recipients and various actors can determine the success of a vaccine program. Previous shortcomings, in Kenya, and globally during HPV vaccine introduction show the need to allocate adequate resources in education of communities given the sensitive target group. With maternal vaccines targeting a sensitive group - pregnant persons- in the pipeline, we are at an opportune time to understand how to ensure successful vaccine introduction with optimal acceptance and uptake, while also addressing vaccine hesitancy to increase population benefit.
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Approximately 62,000 Zambian children are living with HIV. HIV care and treatment is generally more limited in rural areas, where a heavy reliance on rain-fed subsistence agriculture also places households at risk of food and water insecurity. We nested a mixed methods study with an explanatory sequential design in a clinical cohort of children and adolescents living with HIV (CHIV) in rural Zambia. We used validated questionnaires to assess household food and water insecurity and examined associations between indicators derived from those scales, household characteristics, and HIV treatment adherence and outcomes using log-binomial regression. We identified caregivers and older CHIV from food insecure households for in-depth interviews. Of 186 participants completing assessments, 72% lived in moderately or severely food insecure households and 2% in water insecure households. Food insecurity was more prevalent in households of lower socioeconomic status (80% vs. 59% for higher scores; p = 0.02) and where caregivers had completed primary (79%) vs. secondary school or higher (62%; p = 0.01). No other characteristics or outcomes were associated with food insecurity. Parents limited both the quality and quantity of foods they consumed to ensure food availability for their CHIV. Coping strategies included taking on piecework or gathering wild foods; livestock ownership was a potential buffer. Accessing sufficient clean water was less of a concern. During periods of drought or service interruption, participants travelled further for drinking water and accessed water for other purposes from alternative sources or reduced water use. Community contributions afforded some protection against service interruptions. Overall, while food insecurity was prevalent, strategies used by parents may have protected children from a measurable impact on HIV care or treatment outcomes. Reinforcing social protection programs by integrating livestock ownership and strengthening water infrastructure may further protect CHIV in the case of more extreme food or water system shocks.
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Composición Familiar , Inseguridad Alimentaria , Infecciones por VIH , Población Rural , Humanos , Zambia/epidemiología , Adolescente , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Infecciones por VIH/psicología , Masculino , Femenino , Niño , Inseguridad Hídrica , Cuidadores/psicología , Preescolar , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , Abastecimiento de AlimentosRESUMEN
Despite the 2009 World Health Organization recommendation that all countries introduce rotavirus vaccines (RVV) into their national immunization programs, just 81 countries had introduced RVV by the end of 2015, leaving millions of children at risk for rotavirus morbidity and mortality. In response, the Rotavirus Accelerated Vaccine Introduction Network (RAVIN) was established in 2016 to provide support to eight Gavi-eligible countries that had yet to make an RVV introduction decision and/or had requested technical assistance with RVV preparations: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Benin, Cambodia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Myanmar, and Nepal. During 2016-2020, RAVIN worked with country governments and partners to support evidence-based immunization decision-making, RVV introduction preparation and implementation, and multilateral coordination. By the September 2020 program close-out, five of the eight RAVIN focus countries successfully introduced RVV into their routine childhood immunization programs. We report on the RAVIN approach, describe how the project responded collectively to an evolving RVV product landscape, synthesize common characteristics of the RAVIN country experiences, highlight key lessons learned, and outline the unfinished agenda to inform future new vaccine introduction efforts by countries and global partners.
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Programas de Inmunización , Infecciones por Rotavirus , Vacunas contra Rotavirus , Niño , Humanos , Países en Desarrollo , Rotavirus , Infecciones por Rotavirus/epidemiología , Infecciones por Rotavirus/prevención & control , Vacunas contra Rotavirus/administración & dosificación , Vacunación , Organización Mundial de la SaludRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Pneumonia remains the leading infectious cause of global childhood deaths, despite the availability of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) products and widespread evidence of their safety and efficacy. OBJECTIVE: To map the landscape of countries that are yet to fully include PCV in their National Immunization Programs, we conducted an archetype analysis of country indicators related to barriers and facilitators for PCV decision-making. METHODS: We created a country matrix focused on three key domains - health characteristics, immunisation factors, and policy framework, and identified ten related indicators. We scored countries based on indicator performance and subsequently ranked and grouped them into three archetypes of low-, moderate-, and high-barrier countries with regard to PCV introduction. RESULTS: Our results indicated 39 countries (33 low- and middle-income countries [LMICs] and 6 high-income countries) that are yet to introduce PCV. Among LMICs, 15 countries were classified as 'low-barrier,' indicating factors favourable for PCV introduction such as high immunisation coverage of common childhood vaccines, supportive governments, and substantial disease burden and eligibility for Gavi support. Countries classified in the 'moderate-barrier' (12) and 'high-barrier' (6) archetypes demonstrated adequate capacity in immunisation systems but had competing national priorities and cost barriers that impeded policy decision-making on PCV introduction. CONCLUSIONS: The current health and policy indicator-based categorisation provides an actionable framework to design tailored PCV advocacy within these last-mile countries. Policy approaches emerging from this framework can lead to strengthened decision-making on vaccine introduction and sustained vaccine access that can enhance child survival worldwide.
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Enfermedades Transmisibles , Vacunas Neumococicas , Niño , Humanos , Lactante , Vacunas Conjugadas/uso terapéutico , Vacunas Neumococicas/uso terapéutico , Vacunación , RentaRESUMEN
This study examined attitudes toward maternal RSV vaccines among pregnant and lactating persons in Kenya. First pregnancy was associated with higher vaccine hesitancy among pregnant and lactating people, and social norms were associated with higher vaccine hesitancy among lactating people. Understanding maternal RSV attitudes is critical for vaccine acceptance.
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Vacunas contra Virus Sincitial Respiratorio , Vacunas , Femenino , Embarazo , Humanos , Vacunación , Kenia , Lactancia , Aceptación de la Atención de SaludRESUMEN
Education systems and pedagogical practices in global public health are facing substantive calls for change during the current and ongoing 'decolonising global health' movement. Incorporating antioppressive principles into learning communities is one promising approach to decolonising global health education. We sought to transform a four-credit graduate-level global health course at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health using antioppressive principles. One member of the teaching team attended a year-long training designed to support changes in pedagogical philosophy, syllabus development, course design, course implementation, assignments, grading, and student engagement. We incorporated regular student self-reflections designed to capture student experiences and elicit constant feedback to inform real-time changes responsive to student needs. Our efforts at remediating the emerging limitations of one course in graduate global health education provide an example of overhauling graduate education to remain relevant in a rapidly changing global order.
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Salud Global , Educación en Salud , Humanos , Universidades , Salud Pública/educación , EstudiantesRESUMEN
In India, considerable progress has been made in reducing child mortality rates. Despite this achievement, wide disparities persist across and socio-economic strata, and persistent challenges, such as malnutrition, poor sanitation, and lack of clean water. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the state of child health in India, examining key risk factors and causes of child mortality, assessing the coverage of child health interventions, and highlighting critical public health programs and policies. The authors also discuss future directions and recommendations for bolstering ongoing efforts to improve child health. These include state- and region-specific interventions, prioritizing social determinants of health, strengthening data systems, leveraging existing programs like the National Health Mission (NHM) and Ayushman Bharat Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (PM-JAY), and the proposed Public Health Management Cadre (PHMC). The authors argue that reducing child mortality requires not only scaled-up interventions but a comprehensive approach that addresses all dimensions of health, from social determinants to system strengthening.
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Salud Infantil , Mortalidad del Niño , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Niño , Humanos , India/epidemiología , Mortalidad InfantilRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Few studies have described the drivers of vaccine hesitancy and acceptance in India from the perspective of those involved in the design and implementation of vaccine campaigns-such as government officials and civil society stakeholders-a prerequisite to developing approaches to address this barrier to high immunization coverage and further child health improvements. METHODS: We conducted a qualitative study to understand government officials and civil society stakeholders' perceptions of the drivers of vaccine hesitancy in India. We conducted in-depth phone interviews using a structured guide of open-ended questions with 21 participants from international and national non-governmental organizations, professional associations, and universities, and state and national government-six national-level stakeholders in New Delhi, six state-level stakeholders in Uttar Pradesh, six in Kerala, and three in Gujarat-from July 2020 to October 2020. We analyzed data through a multi-stage process following Grounded Theory. We present findings on individual-level, contextual, and vaccine/vaccination program-specific factors influencing vaccine hesitancy. RESULTS: We identified multiple drivers and complex ways they influence vaccine beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors from the perspective of government officials and civil society stakeholders involved in vaccine campaigns. Important individual-level influences were low awareness of the benefits of vaccination, safety concerns, especially related to mild adverse events following immunization, and mistrust in government and health service quality. Contextual-level factors included communications, the media environment, and social media, which serves as a major conduit of misinformation and driver of hesitancy, as well as sociodemographic factors-specific drivers varied widely by income, education, urban/rural setting, and across religious and cultural groups. Among vaccine/vaccination-level issues, vaccine program design and delivery and the role of health care professionals emerged as the strongest determinants of hesitancy. CONCLUSIONS: Drivers of vaccine hesitancy in India, as elsewhere, vary widely by local context; successful interventions should address individual, contextual, and vaccine-specific factors. While previous studies focused on individual-level factors, our study demonstrates the equal importance of contextual and vaccine-specific influences, especially the communication and media environment, influential leaders, sociodemographic factors, and frontline health workers.
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Aceptación de la Atención de Salud , Vacunas , Niño , Empleados de Gobierno , Humanos , Sociedades , Vacunación , Vacilación a la VacunaciónRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to identify predictors of COVID-19 vaccine intention among Bangladeshi adults. METHODS: Secondary data from the COVID-19 Beliefs, Behaviors & Norms Survey conducted by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Facebook were analyzed. Data were collected from 2,669 adult Facebook users in Bangladesh and was collected between February 15 and February 28, 2021. Binomial logistic regression examined the relationship between COVID-19 vaccination intent and demographic variables, risk perception, preventive behaviors, COVID-19 knowledge, and likelihood of future actions. RESULTS: Seventy-nine percent of respondents reported intent to get the COVID-19 vaccine when it becomes available. Intent to get vaccinated was highest among females, adults aged 71-80, individuals with college or graduate-level degrees, city dwellers, and individuals who perceived that they were in excellent health. Results of the binomial logistic regression indicated that predictors of vaccination intent include age (OR = 1.39), high risk perception of COVID-19 (OR = 1.47), and intent to practice social distancing (OR = 1.22). DISCUSSION: Findings suggest that age, perceived COVID-19 risk, and non-pharmaceutical COVID-19 interventions may predict COVID-19 vaccination intent among Bangladeshi adults. Findings can be used to create targeted messaging to increase demand for and uptake of COVID-19 vaccines in Bangladesh.
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Vacunas contra la COVID-19/inmunología , COVID-19/inmunología , Vacunación/legislación & jurisprudencia , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Bangladesh , Femenino , Humanos , Intención , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Políticas , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
Vaccines have contributed to substantial improvements in health and social development outcomes for millions in recent decades. However, equitable access to immunization remains a critical challenge that has stalled progress toward improving several health indicators around the world. The COVID-19 pandemic has also negatively impacted routine immunization services around the world further threatening universal access to the benefits of lifesaving vaccines. To overcome these challenges, the Immunization Agenda 2030 (IA2030) focuses on increasing both commitment and demand for vaccines. There are three broad barriers that will need to be addressed in order to achieve national and subnational immunization targets: (1) shifting leadership priorities and resource constraints, (2) visibility of disease burden, and (3) social and behavioral drivers. IA2030 proposes a set of interventions to address these barriers. First, efforts to ensure government engagement on immunization financing, regulatory, and legislative frameworks. Next, those in subnational leadership positions and local community members need to be further engaged to ensure local commitment and demand. Governance structures and health agencies must accept responsibility and be held accountable for delivering inclusive, quality, and accessible services and for achieving national targets. Further, the availability of quality immunization services and commitment to adequate financing and resourcing must go hand-in-hand with public health programs to increase access to and demand for vaccination. Last, strengthening trust in immunization systems and improving individual and program resilience can help mitigate the risk of vaccine confidence crises. These interventions together can help ensure a world where everyone, everywhere has access to and uses vaccines for lifesaving vaccination.
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Vaccine hesitancy is on the rise, as more individuals are delaying or refusing vaccines. This rise in hesitancy has been primarily driven by vaccine safety concerns, even though the vaccine development process is regulated by a robust and rigorous scientific system. Recent data suggest that many individuals would be unwilling to take a COVID-19 vaccine, once one is available. The Trump administration's Operation Warp Speed aims to deliver a vaccine in the near future, even though no American or European COVID-19 vaccine has yet completed Phase 3 trials. The administration has used the emergency use authorization mechanism to fast track therapeutic products through the Food and Drug Administration and has not ruled out using the mechanism to fast track a COVID-19 vaccine. Perceived political pressure to push a COVID-19 vaccine will have a multitude of negative consequences. Not only will it lead to sub-optimal levels of vaccine acceptance toward a COVID-19 vaccine, it will reverse progress made in controlling vaccine preventable disease for years to come.
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Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , COVID-19/prevención & control , Política , Salud Pública , HumanosRESUMEN
Rotavirus is the leading cause of severe dehydrating gastroenteritis and death due to diarrhea among children under 5, causing over 180,000 under-5 deaths annually. Safe, effective rotavirus vaccines have been available for over a decade and are used in over 98 countries. In addition to the globally available, WHO-prequalified ROTARIX (GSK) and RotaTeq (Merck), several new rotavirus vaccines have attained national licensure - ROTAVAC (Bharat Biotech) and ROTASIIL (Serum Institute of India), licensed and manufactured in India and now WHO-prequalified, and Rotavin-M1 (PolyVac), licensed and manufactured in Vietnam. In this review, we summarize the available clinical trial and post-introduction evidence for these three new orally administered rotavirus vaccines. All three vaccines have demonstrated safety and efficacy against rotavirus diarrhea, although publicly available preclinical data are limited in some cases. This expanding product landscape presents a range of options to optimize immunization programs, and new presentations of each vaccine are currently under development.
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Infecciones por Rotavirus , Vacunas contra Rotavirus , Rotavirus , Niño , Humanos , India , Lactante , Vacunas Atenuadas , VietnamRESUMEN
A pandemic, especially when caused by a novel virus, induces tremendous uncertainty, fear, and anxiety. To mitigate panic and encourage appropriate behavioral action, communication is critical. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication (CERC) guidance is designed to assist public health authorities, government officials, and other stakeholders in using risk communication during an emergency. For each of the 6 core communication principles outlined in the CERC guidance, we describe the use or nonuse of these principles at critical points during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by US public health and government officials. With the knowledge that the pandemic will continue to rage for some time and that new communication challenges will arise, including issues related to vaccination and treatment options, many lessons are to be learned and shared. To reduce fear and uncertainty among those living in the United States, COVID-19 communication should be rapid and accurate, while building credibility and trust and showcasing empathy-all with a unified voice.
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COVID-19 , Comunicación , Difusión de la Información , Información de Salud al Consumidor , Humanos , Salud Pública , SARS-CoV-2 , Estados UnidosRESUMEN
By 2050, the number of adults over 65 years of age will be double the under-5 population, and heavily concentrated in low- and middle-income countries. Population growth and increasing life expectancies call for effective healthy aging strategies inclusive of immunization to reduce the burden of vaccine-preventable diseases, improve quality of life, and mitigate antimicrobial resistance. Based on a review of available literature on the pneumococcal disease, influenza, and herpes zoster epidemiology and economic burden, and the health systems and policy barriers for adult immunization, we identified evidence gaps and considerations for prioritizing adult immunization. The body of evidence for adult immunization and the health and economic burden of adult disease is heavily concentrated in high-income countries. The few countries reporting adult immunization policies generally focus on high-risk groups. Despite robust child immunization programs in most countries, adult immunization programs and policies lag far behind and there is a general lack of appropriate delivery platforms. Global adult disease burden and economic costs are substantial but evidence from low- and middle-income countries is limited. There is a need for a strengthened evidence base and political commitment to drive a comprehensive, global technical consensus on adult immunization.
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Enfermedades Prevenibles por Vacunación , Adulto , Niño , Países en Desarrollo , Humanos , Inmunización , Programas de Inmunización , Políticas , Calidad de Vida , VacunaciónRESUMEN
Introduction: Vaccine hesitancy, defined as a delay in the acceptance or the refusal of vaccines despite their availability, is a growing global threat. More individuals are turning to social media for health information, including vaccine information. As such, there is an opportunity to leverage online platforms as a means to disseminate and persuade individuals toward vaccine acceptance. We sought to review literature focused on the influence of exposure to social media content on vaccine acceptance or hesitancy.Areas covered: This review focused on social networking sites (e.g. Facebook) and content communities (e.g. YouTube), to understand how exposure to vaccine information affected vaccine knowledge, attitudes, and intentions/behaviors. We searched PubMed, CINAHL, Scopus, and Inspec. We included English-language materials published from 2004 to 2020 and included interventional studies, observational studies, and impacts of policies. We excluded systematic reviews, protocols, editorials, letters, case reports, case studies, commentaries, opinion pieces, narrative reviews, and clinical guidelines.Expert opinion: Social media interventions to affect vaccine acceptance is a new but growing area of study. How a communication message is framed, who delivers the message, and network structure are critical for affecting the vaccine decision-making process. Social media should be leveraged to impact vaccine uptake.
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Medios de Comunicación Sociales , Vacunas , Comunicación , Humanos , VacunaciónRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The belief that there is a link between the MMR vaccine and autism has led to a decline in childhood-immunization uptake and a resurgence of preventable infectious diseases. This study aimed to understand how the vaccine decision-making process differed between parents with a child diagnosed with autism and parents with a child that did not have autism. METHODS: Interviews were conducted in September-December 2018 with 24 racially and demographically diverse parents of children on Medicaid at two Baltimore clinics serving Medicaid patients, one of which only serves families of children with autism. We conducted a semi-structured, qualitative, in-person in-depth interview study to explore parental perceptions of vaccine-decision making. Interviews with participants were transcribed from audio recordings. We then extracted and analyzed the types of barriers each participant experienced. RESULTS: Parent descriptions of their vaccine decision-making process focused on three primary factors: concerns about vaccines, the relationship between the child's provider and the parent, and risk perception. These findings are in line with existing literature that has articulated key factors in the vaccine decision-making process generally. Parents of a child with autism were more likely to consider the idea that vaccines were linked to autism in their decision-making process, and were less likely to be influenced by personalized recommendations from the child's health care provider. CONCLUSION: Parental concerns about vaccines, the parent-provider relationship, and vaccine risk perception all contribute to vaccine decision-making among parents of children with and without ASD. However, providers may find it especially difficult to manage parental misconceptions about vaccines and developmental disabilities. Future studies can identify alternative communication techniques and determine what mechanisms may be more effective in encouraging vaccine acceptance among parents of children with ASD.
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Trastorno del Espectro Autista , Niño , Toma de Decisiones , Personal de Salud , Humanos , Vacuna contra el Sarampión-Parotiditis-Rubéola , Medicaid , PadresRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: While India has made substantial progress in introducing new vaccines and scaling up immunization coverage, inequities persist sub-nationally. This study was performed to investigate the risk of under-immunization based on class membership and to identify heterogeneous classes based on sociodemographic characteristics in pediatric and maternal populations in India through latent class analysis. METHODS: Data from the most recent National Family Health Survey conducted in 2015-2016 were used. Latent class analysis was used to model immunization coverage in children aged 12-23 months and mothers, and to identify subgroups to characterize those at risk of not being immunized. RESULTS: Patterns of sociodemographic characteristics were found to contribute to non-immunization or under-immunization among pediatric and maternal populations in India. Individuals who fit into one of three categories were identified in both populations: those at high, medium, and lower risk of not being immunized. Lower socioeconomic status, lack of antenatal care, and lower maternal education put individuals at higher risk of not being immunized with routine childhood vaccines and maternal tetanus toxoid. CONCLUSIONS: Predisposing risk factors can persistently impact immunization status despite improvements in immunization access in India. Tailored programmatic interventions should be developed to improve immunization coverage among those children and mothers who are at highest risk of being under-immunized or not immunized.
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Madres , Clase Social , Cobertura de Vacunación/estadística & datos numéricos , Niño , Preescolar , Femenino , Humanos , Programas de Inmunización , India , Lactante , Análisis de Clases Latentes , Masculino , Embarazo , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The absolute number of pneumonia deaths in India has declined substantially since 2000. However, pneumonia remains a major cause of morbidity in children in the country. We used a risk factor-based model to estimate pneumonia and severe pneumonia morbidity in Indian states in 2000 and 2015. METHODS: In this modelling study, we estimated the burden of pneumonia and severe pneumonia in children younger than 5 years using a risk factor-based model. We did a systematic literature review to identify published data on the incidence of pneumonia from community-based longitudinal studies and calculated summary estimates. We estimated state-specific incidence rates for WHO-defined clinical pneumonia between 2000 and 2015 using Poisson regression and the prevalence of risk factors in each state was obtained from National Family Health Surveys. From clinical pneumonia studies, we identified studies reporting the proportion of clinical pneumonia cases with lower chest wall indrawing to estimate WHO-defined severe pneumonia cases. We used the estimate of the proportion of cases with lower chest wall indrawing to estimate WHO-defined severe pneumonia cases for each state. FINDINGS: Between 2000 and 2015, the estimated number of pneumonia cases in Indian HIV-uninfected children younger than 5 years decreased from 83·8 million cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 14·0-300·8) to 49·8 million cases (9·1-174·2), representing a 41% reduction in pneumonia cases. The incidence of pneumonia in children younger than 5 years in India was 657 cases per 1000 children (95% UI 110-2357) in 2000 and 403 cases per 1000 children (74-1408) in 2015. The estimated national pneumonia case fatality rate in 2015 was 0·38% (95% UI 0·11-2·10). In 2015, the estimated number of severe pneumonia cases was 8·4 million (95% UI 1·2-31·7), with an incidence of 68 cases per 1000 children (9-257) and a case fatality ratio of 2·26% (0·60-16·30). In 2015, the estimated number of pneumonia cases in HIV-uninfected children was highest in Uttar Pradesh (12·4 million [95% UI 2·1-45·0]), Bihar (7·3 million [1·3-26·1]), and Madhya Pradesh (4·6 million [0·7-17·0]). Between 2000 and 2015, the greatest reduction in pneumonia cases was observed in Kerala (82% reduction). In 2015, pneumonia incidence was greater than 500 cases per 1000 children in two states: Uttar Pradesh (565 cases per 1000 children [95% UI 94-2047]) and Madhya Pradesh (563 cases per 1000 children [88-2084]). INTERPRETATION: The estimated number of pneumonia and severe pneumonia cases among children younger than 5 years in India decreased between 2000 and 2015. Improvements in socioeconomic indicators and specific government initiatives are likely to have contributed to declines in the prevalence of pneumonia risk factors in many states. However, pneumonia incidence in many states remains high. The introduction of new vaccines that target pneumonia pathogens and reduce risk factors will help further reduce the burden of pneumonia in the country. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Neumonía/epidemiología , Niño , Preescolar , Femenino , Encuestas Epidemiológicas , Humanos , Incidencia , India/epidemiología , Masculino , Vigilancia de la Población , Medición de Riesgo , Factores de Riesgo , Índice de Severidad de la EnfermedadRESUMEN
In the early months of the pandemic, most reported cases and deaths due to COVID-19 occurred in high-income countries. However, insufficient testing could have led to an underestimation of true infections in many low- and middle-income countries. As confirmed cases increase, the ultimate impact of the pandemic on individuals and communities in low- and middle-income countries is uncertain. We therefore propose research in three broad areas as urgently needed to inform responses in low- and middle-income countries: transmission patterns of SARS-CoV-2, the clinical characteristics of the disease, and the impact of pandemic prevention and response measures. Answering these questions will require a multidisciplinary approach led by local investigators and in some cases additional resources. Targeted research activities should be done to help mitigate the potential burden of COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries without diverting the limited human resources, funding, or medical supplies from response activities.