The Prognostic Significance of Nomogram-Based Pretreatment Inflammatory Indicators in Patients With Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Receiving Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: At present, there is no objective prognostic index available for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) who underwent intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). This study is to develop a nomogram based on hematologic inflammatory indices for ESCC patients treated with IMRT. METHODS: 581 patients with ESCC receiving definitive IMRT were enrolled in our retrospective study. Of which, 434 patients with treatment-naïve ESCC in Fujian Cancer Hospital were defined as the training cohort. Additional 147 newly diagnosed ESCC patients were used as the validation cohort. Independent predictors of overall survival (OS) were employed to establish a nomogram model. The predictive ability was evaluated by time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, the concordance index (C-index), net reclassification index (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to assess the clinical benefits of the nomogram model. The entire series was divided into 3 risk subgroups stratified by the total nomogram scores. RESULTS: Clinical TNM staging, primary gross tumor volume, chemotherapy, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelet lymphocyte ratio were independent predictors of OS. Nomogram was developed incorporating these factors. Compared with the 8th American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging, the C-index for 5-year OS (.627 and .629) and the AUC value of 5-year OS (.706 and .719) in the training and validation cohorts (respectively) were superior. Furthermore, the nomogram model presented higher NRI and IDI. DCA also demonstrated that the nomogram model provided greater clinical benefit. Finally, patients with <84.8, 84.8-151.4, and >151.4 points were categorized into low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups. Their 5-year OS rates were 44.0%, 23.6%, and 8.9%, respectively. The C-index was .625, which was higher than the 8th AJCC staging. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a nomogram model that enables risk-stratification of patients with ESCC receiving definitive IMRT. Our findings may serve as a reference for personalized treatment.

Primary gross tumor volume is prognostic and suggests treatment in upper esophageal cancer.

BACKGROUND: To aid clinicians strategizing treatment for upper esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), this retrospective study investigated associations between primary gross tumor volume (GTVp) and prognosis in patients given surgical resection, radiotherapy, or both resection and radiotherapy. METHODS: The population comprised 568 patients with upper ESCC given definitive treatment, including 238, 216, and 114 who underwent surgery, radiotherapy, or combined radiotherapy and surgery. GTVp as a continuous variable was entered into the multivariate Cox model using penalized splines (P-splines) to determine the optimal cutoff value. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to adjust imbalanced characteristics among the treatment groups. RESULTS: P-spline regression revealed a dependence of patient outcomes on GTVp, with 30 cm3 being an optimal cut-off for differences in overall and progression-free survival (OS, PFS). GTVp ≥30 cm3 was a negative independent prognostic factor for OS and PFS. PSM analyses confirmed the prognostic value of GTVp. For GTVp < 30 cm3, no significant survival differences were observed among the 3 treatments. For GTVp ≥30 cm3, the worst 5-year OS rate was experienced by those given surgery. The 5-year PFS rate of patients given combined radiotherapy and surgery was significantly better than that of patients given radiotherapy. The surgical complications of patients given the combined treatment were comparable to those who received surgery, but radiation side effects were significantly lower. CONCLUSION: GTVp is prognostic for OS and PFS in upper ESCC. For patients with GTVp ≥30 cm3, radiotherapy plus surgery was more effective than either treatment alone.

Development of a prognostic nomogram and risk stratification system for upper thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

Background: The study aimed to develop a nomogram model to predict overall survival (OS) and construct a risk stratification system of upper thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Methods: Newly diagnosed 568 patients with upper ESCC at Fujian Medical University Cancer Hospital were taken as a training cohort, and additional 155 patients with upper ESCC from Sichuan Cancer Hospital Institute were used as a validation cohort. A nomogram was established using Cox proportional hazard regression to identify prognostic factors for OS. The predictive power of nomogram model was evaluated by using 4 indices: concordance statistics (C-index), time-dependent ROC (ROCt) curve, net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Results: In this study, multivariate analysis revealed that gender, clinical T stage, clinical N stage and primary gross tumor volume were independent prognostic factors for OS in the training cohort. The nomogram based on these factors presented favorable prognostic efficacy in the both training and validation cohorts, with concordance statistics (C-index) of 0.622, 0.713, and area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.709, 0.739, respectively, which appeared superior to those of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. Additionally, net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) of the nomogram presented better discrimination ability to predict survival than those of AJCC staging. Furthermore, decision curve analysis (DCA) of the nomogram exhibited greater clinical performance than that of AJCC staging. Finally, the nomogram fairly distinguished the OS rates among low, moderate, and high risk groups, whereas the OS curves of clinical stage could not be well separated among clinical AJCC stage. Conclusion: We built an effective nomogram model for predicting OS of upper ESCC, which may improve clinicians' abilities to predict individualized survival and facilitate to further stratify the management of patients at risk.

Influence of age as a continuous variable on survival outcomes and treatment options in patients with upper thoracic esophageal carcinoma.

Background: This retrospective review of patients with upper thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) analyzed the prognostic value of age, as a continuous variable, and offered insight into treatment options. Methods: 568 upper ESCC patients underwent radical therapy between 2004 and 2016. Age as a continuous variable was entered into the Cox regression model with penalized spline (P-spline) analysis to investigate a correlation between age and survival outcomes. Results: Before adjustment, P-spline regression revealed U-shaped survival curves. Sixty years was the optimal cut-off age for differences in overall and progression-free survival (OS, PFS). The cohort was divided into age groups ≤ 50, 51-69, and ≥ 70 years. Multivariate analyses showed no significant differences in either PFS or OS for patients aged ≤ 50 and 51-69 years. After adjusting for covariates, P-spline regression showed that the risk of mortality and disease progression increased with age, and ≥ 70 years was an unfavorable independent prognostic factor. For age ≥ 70 years, the OS and PFS associated with non-surgery was comparable to that of surgery. For patients younger, the OS and PFS of patients given surgery was significantly better than that of patients given non-surgery. Conclusion: Age was an independent prognostic factor for upper ESCC. Patients ≥ 70 years achieved no significant survival benefit from surgery, but for those younger than 70 years surgery was the preferred treatment option.

[Evaluation on gelling properties of shuanghuanglian in situ gel by dynamic rheology].

OBJECTIVE: To determine the rheological properties of shuanghuanglian in situ gel (SHL-gel) by using dynamic rheological experiments, in order to evaluate its gelling properties shuanghuanglian in situ gel and predict its gelling behavior in vivo. METHOD: Rheological parameters were determined by scanning of shear rate and frequency at different temperatures. The phase transition process from liquid to semisolid was described by testing of process heating/cooling and acute heating/cooling. RESULT: SHL-gel was Newtonian fluid under the conditions of a phase angle approaching 90 degrees at low temperature or room temperature, with its viscous characteristics dominated. It was shear-thinning pseudoplastic fluid under the conditions of a low phase angle at body temperature, with its elastic characteristics dominated. During the phase transition process, the phase angle delta was getting sharp, with exponential increase of the modulus. The gelling temperature (Tg) was at (35.38 +/- 0.05) degrees C, the phase transition temperature ranged from 33.71 to 37.01%, and phase transition time was 140 s. CONCLUSION: The dynamic rheological experiment characterizes the gelling properties of Shuanghuanglian in situ gel so precisely that it can be used as the basis of for in vitro evaluation and quality control of products.