Electrocardiographic parameters and the risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation in the general population: the Rotterdam Study.

AIMS: We aimed to assess the (shape of the) association and sex differences in the link between electrocardiographic parameters and new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 12 212 participants free of AF at baseline from the population-based Rotterdam Study were included. Up to five repeated measurements of electrocardiographic parameters including PR, QRS, QT, QT corrected for heart rate (QTc), JT, RR interval, and heart rate were assessed at baseline and follow-up examinations. Cox proportional hazards- and joint models, adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, were used to determine the (shape of the) association between baseline and longitudinal electrocardiographic parameters with new-onset AF. Additionally, we evaluated potential sex differences. During a median follow-up of 9.3 years, 1282 incident AF cases occurred among 12 212 participants (mean age 64.9 years, 58.2% women). Penalized cubic splines revealed that associations between baseline electrocardiographic measures and risk of new-onset AF were generally U- and N-shaped. Sex differences in terms of the shape of the various associations were most apparent for baseline PR, QT, QTc, RR interval, and heart rate in relation to new-onset AF. Longitudinal measures of higher PR interval [fully adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.43, 1.02-2.04, P = 0.0393] and higher QTc interval (fully adjusted HR, 95% CI, 5.23, 2.18-12.45, P = 0.0002) were significantly associated with new-onset AF, in particular in men. CONCLUSION: Associations of baseline electrocardiographic measures and risk of new-onset AF were mostly U- and N-shaped. Longitudinal electrocardiographic measures of PR and QTc interval were significantly associated with new-onset AF, in particular among men.

Risk of cancer after ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction.

Analyses from administrative databases have suggested an increased cancer incidence among individuals who experienced a myocardial infarction, especially within the first 6 months. It remains unclear to what extent this represents an underlying biological link, or can be explained by detection of pre-symptomatic cancers and shared risk factors. Cancer incidence among 1809 consecutive patients surviving hospitalization for thrombotic ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI; mean age 62.6 years; 26% women; 115 incident cancers) was compared to the cancer incidence among 10,052 individuals of the general population (Rotterdam Study; mean age 63.1 years; 57% women; 677 incident cancers). Pathology-confirmed cancer diagnoses were obtained through identical linkage of both cohorts with the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Cox models were used to obtain hazards ratios (HRs) adjusted for factors associated with both atherosclerosis and cancer. Over 5-year follow-up, there was no significant difference in the incidence of cancer between STEMI patients and the general population (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.78-1.19). In the first 3 months after STEMI, cancer incidence was markedly higher among STEMI patients compared to the general population (HR 2.45, 95% CI 1.13-5.30), which gradually dissolved during follow-up (P-for-trend 0.004). Among STEMI patients, higher C-reactive protein, higher platelet counts, and lower hemoglobin were associated with cancer incidence during the first year after STEMI (HRs 2.93 for C-reactive protein > 10 mg/dL, 2.10 for platelet count > 300*109, and 3.92 for hemoglobin < 7.5 mmol/L). Although rare, thrombotic STEMI might be a paraneoplastic manifestation of yet to be diagnosed cancer, and is hallmarked by a pro-inflammatory status and anemia.Trial registration Registered into the Netherlands National Trial Register and WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform under shared catalogue number NTR6831.

Thoracic Aortic Diameter and Cardiovascular Events and Mortality among Women and Men.

Background Thoracic aortic diameter may have a role as a biomarker for major adverse cardiovascular events. Purpose To evaluate the sex-specific association of the diameters of the ascending (AA) and descending (DA) thoracic aorta with risk of stroke, coronary heart disease, heart failure, cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality. Materials and Methods Study participants from the population-based Rotterdam Study who underwent multidetector-row CT between 2003 and 2006 were evaluated. Cox proportional hazard models were conducted to evaluate the associations of AA and DA diameters indexed and not indexed for body mass index (BMI) with cardiovascular events and mortality for men and women. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated per 1-unit greater SD of aortic diameters. Results A total of 2178 participants (mean age, 69 years; 55% women) were included. Mean follow-up was 9 years. Each 0.23-mm/(kg/m2) larger BMI-indexed AA diameter was associated with a 33% higher cardiovascular mortality risk in women (HR, 1.33; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.73). Each 0.16-mm/(kg/m2) larger BMI-indexed DA diameter was associated with a 38% higher risk of stroke (HR, 1.38; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.78) and with a 46% greater risk of cardiovascular mortality (HR, 1.46; 95% CI: 1.10, 1.94) in women. Larger BMI-indexed AA and DA diameters were associated with greater risk of all-cause mortality in both sexes. Conclusion Larger ascending and descending thoracic aortic diameters indexed by body mass index were associated with greater risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes and mortality in women and men. Clinical trial registration no. NTR6831 © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Williams in this issue.

Implications of the ACC/AHA risk score for prediction of heart failure: the Rotterdam Study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the growing burden of heart failure (HF), there have been no recommendations for use of any of the primary prevention models in the existing guidelines. HF was also not included as an outcome in the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) risk score. METHODS: Among 2743 men and 3646 women aged ≥ 55 years, free of HF, from the population-based Rotterdam Study cohort, 4 Cox models were fitted using the predictors of the ACC/AHA, ARIC and Health-ABC risk scores. Performance of the models for 10-year HF prediction was evaluated. Afterwards, performance and net reclassification improvement (NRI) for adding NT-proBNP to the ACC/AHA model were assessed. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 13 years, 429 men and 489 women developed HF. The ARIC model had the highest performance [c-statistic (95% confidence interval [CI]): 0.80 (0.78; 0.83) and 0.80 (0.78; 0.83) in men and women, respectively]. The c-statistic for the ACC/AHA model was 0.76 (0.74; 0.78) in men and 0.77 (0.75; 0.80) in women. Adding NT-proBNP to the ACC/AHA model increased the c-statistic to 0.80 (0.78 to 0.83) in men and 0.81 (0.79 to 0.84) in women. Sensitivity and specificity of the ACC/AHA model did not drastically change after addition of NT-proBNP. NRI(95%CI) was - 23.8% (- 19.2%; - 28.4%) in men and - 27.6% (- 30.7%; - 24.5%) in women for events and 57.9% (54.8%; 61.0%) in men and 52.8% (50.3%; 55.5%) in women for non-events. CONCLUSIONS: Acceptable performance of the model based on risk factors included in the ACC/AHA model advocates use of this model for prediction of HF risk in primary prevention setting. Addition of NT-proBNP modestly improved the model performance but did not lead to relevant discrimination improvement in clinical risk reclassification.

Path From Clinical Research to Implementation: Endovascular Treatment of Ischemic Stroke in the Netherlands.

Before 2015, endovascular treatment (EVT) for acute ischemic stroke was considered a promising treatment option. Based on limited evidence, it was performed in several dedicated stroke centers worldwide on selected patients. Since 2015, EVT for patients with intracranial large vessel occlusion has quickly been implemented as standard treatment in many countries worldwide, supported by the revised international guidelines based on solid evidence from multiple clinical trials. We describe the development in use of EVT in the Netherlands before, during, and after the pivotal EVT trials. We used data from all patients who were treated with EVT in the Netherlands from January 2002 until December 2018. We undertook a time-series analysis to examine trends in the use of EVT using Poisson regression analysis. Incidence rate ratios per year with 95% CIs were obtained to demonstrate the impact and implementation after the publication of the EVT trial results. We made regional observation plots, adjusted for stroke incidence, to assess the availability and use of the treatment in the country. In the buildup to the MR CLEAN (Multicenter Clinical Trial of Endovascular Treatment of Acute Ischemic Stroke in the Netherlands), a slow increase of EVT patients was observed, with 0.2% of all ischemic stroke patients receiving EVT. Before the trial results were formally announced, a statistically significant increase in EVT-treated patients per year was observed (incidence rate ratio, 1.72 [95% CI, 1.46-2.04]), and after the trial publication, an immediate steep increase was seen, followed by a more gradual increase (incidence rate ratio, 2.14 [95% CI, 1.77-2.59]). In 2018, the percentage of ischemic stroke patients receiving EVT increased to 5.8%. A well-developed infrastructure, a pragmatic approach toward the use of EVT in clinical practice, in combination with a strict adherence by the regulatory authorities to national evidence-based guidelines has led to successful implementation of EVT in the Netherlands. Ongoing efforts are directed at further increasing the proportion of stroke patients with EVT in all regions of the country.

Smoking cessation and risk of recurrent cardiovascular events and mortality after a first manifestation of arterial disease.

AIMS: To quantify the relation between smoking cessation after a first cardiovascular (CV) event and risk of recurrent CV events and mortality. METHODS: Data were available from 4,673 patients aged 61 ± 8.7 years, with a recent (≤1 year) first manifestation of arterial disease participating in the SMART-cohort. Cox models were used to quantify the relation between smoking status and risk of recurrent major atherosclerotic cardiovascular events (MACE including stroke, MI and vascular mortality) and mortality. In addition, survival according to smoking status was plotted, taking competing risk of non-vascular mortality into account. RESULTS: A third of the smokers stopped after their first CV event. During a median of 7.4 (3.7-10.8) years of follow-up, 794 patients died and 692 MACE occurred. Compared to patients who continued to smoke, patients who quit had a lower risk of recurrent MACE (adjusted HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.49-0.88) and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.48-0.82). Patients who reported smoking cessation on average lived 5 life years longer and recurrent MACE occurred 10 years later. In patients with a first CV event >70 years, cessation of smoking had improved survival which on average was comparable to former or never smokers. CONCLUSIONS: Irrespective of age at first CV event, cessation of smoking after a first CV event is related to a substantial lower risk of recurrent vascular events and all-cause mortality. Since smoking cessation is more effective in reducing CV risk than any pharmaceutical treatment of major risk factors, it should be a key objective for patients with vascular disease.

Incidence of cardiovascular events in patients with stabilized coronary heart disease: the EUROASPIRE IV follow-up study.

The EUROASPIRE surveys (EUROpean Action on Secondary Prevention through Intervention to Reduce Events) demonstrated that most European coronary patients fail to achieve lifestyle, risk factor and therapeutic targets. Here we report on the 2-year incidence of hard cardiovascular (CV) endpoints in the EUROASPIRE IV cohort. EUROASPIRE IV (2012-2013) was a large cross-sectional study undertaken at 78 centres from selected geographical areas in 24 European countries. Patients were interviewed and examined at least 6 months following hospitalization for a coronary event or procedure. Fatal and non-fatal CV events occurring at least 1 year after this baseline screening were registered. The primary outcome in our analyses was the incidence of CV death or non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke or heart failure. Cox regression models, stratified for country, were fitted to relate baseline characteristics to outcome. Our analyses included 7471 predominantly male patients. Overall, 222 deaths were registered of whom 58% were cardiovascular. The incidence of the primary outcome was 42 per 1000 person-years. Comorbidities were strongly and significantly associated with the primary outcome (multivariately adjusted hazard ratio HR, 95% confidence interval): severe chronic kidney disease (HR 2.36, 1.44-3.85), uncontrolled diabetes (HR 1.89, 1.50-2.38), resting heart rate ≥ 75 bpm (HR 1.74, 1.30-2.32), history of stroke (HR 1.70, 1.27-2.29), peripheral artery disease (HR 1.48, 1.09-2.01), history of heart failure (HR 1.47, 1.08-2.01) and history of acute myocardial infarction (HR 1.27, 1.05-1.53). Low education and feelings of depression were significantly associated with increased risk. Lifestyle factors such as persistent smoking, insufficient physical activity and central obesity were not significantly related to adverse outcome. Blood pressure and LDL-C levels appeared to be unrelated to cardiovascular events irrespective of treatment. In patients with stabilized CHD, comorbid conditions that may reflect the ubiquitous nature of atherosclerosis, dominate lifestyle-related and other modifiable risk factors in terms of prognosis, at least over a 2-year follow-up period.

Thyroid Function and Sudden Cardiac Death: A Prospective Population-Based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The association between thyroid function and cardiovascular disease is well established, but no study to date has assessed whether it is a risk factor for sudden cardiac death (SCD). Therefore, we studied the association of thyroid function with SCD in a prospective population-based cohort. METHODS: Participants from the Rotterdam Study ≥45 years with thyroid-stimulating hormone or free thyroxine (FT4) measurements and clinical follow-up were eligible. We assessed the association of thyroid-stimulating hormone and FT4 with the risk of SCD by using an age- and sex-adjusted Cox proportional-hazards model, in all participants and also after restricting the analysis to euthyroid participants (defined by thyroid-stimulating hormone 0.4-4.0 mIU/L). Additional adjustment included cardiovascular risk factors, notably hypertension, serum cholesterol, and smoking. We stratified by age and sex and performed sensitivity analyses by excluding participants with abnormal FT4 values (reference range of 0.85-1.95 ng/dL) and including only witnessed SCDs as outcome. Absolute risks were calculated in a competing risk model by taking death by other causes into account. RESULTS: We included 10 318 participants with 261 incident SCDs (median follow-up, 9.1 years). Higher levels of FT4 were associated with an increased SCD risk, even in the normal range of thyroid function (hazard ratio, 2.28 per 1 ng/dL FT4; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-3.97). Stratification by age or sex and sensitivity analyses did not change the risk estimates substantially. The absolute 10-year risk of SCD increased in euthyroid participants from 1% to 4% with increasing FT4 levels. CONCLUSIONS: Higher FT4 levels are associated with an increased risk of SCD, even in euthyroid participants.

Subclinical Abnormalities in Echocardiographic Parameters and Risk of Sudden Cardiac Death in a General Population: The Rotterdam Study.

BACKGROUND: Subclinical cardiac dysfunction has been associated with increased mortality, and heart failure increases the risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). Less well known is whether subclinical cardiac dysfunction is also a risk factor for SCD. Our objective was to assess the association between echocardiographic parameters and SCD in a community-dwelling population free of heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS: We computed hazard ratios (HRs) for left atrium diameter, left ventricular (LV) end-diastolic dimension, LV end-systolic dimension, LV mass, qualitative LV systolic function, LV fractional shortening, and diastolic function. During a median follow-up of 6.3 years in 4,686 participants, 68 participants died because of SCD. Significant associations with SCD were observed for qualitative LV systolic function and LV fractional shortening. For moderate/poor qualitative LV systolic function, the HR for SCD was 2.54 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10-5.87). Each standard deviation decrease in LV fractional shortening was associated with an HR of 1.36 (95% CI 1.09-1.70). CONCLUSIONS: Subclinical abnormalities in LV systolic function were associated with SCD risk in this general population. Although prediction of SCD remains difficult and traditional cardiovascular risk factors are of greatest importance, this knowledge might guide future directions to prevent SCD in persons with subclinical cardiac dysfunction.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and sudden cardiac death: the Rotterdam study.

AIMS: Both sudden cardiac death (SCD) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are common conditions in the elderly. Previous studies have identified an association between COPD and cardiovascular disease, and with SCD in specific patient groups. Our aim was to investigate whether there is an association between COPD and SCD in the general population. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Rotterdam study is a population-based cohort study among 14 926 subjects aged 45 years and older with up to 24 years of follow-up. Analyses were performed with a (time dependent) Cox proportional hazard model adjusted for age, sex, and smoking. Of the 13 471 persons included in the analysis; 1615 had a diagnosis of COPD and there were 551 cases of SCD. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease was associated with an increased risk of SCD (age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio, HR, 1.34, 95% CI 1.06-1.70). The risk particularly increased in the period 2000 days (5.48 years) after the diagnosis of COPD (age- and sex-adjusted HR 2.12, 95% CI 1.60-2.82) and increased further to a more than three-fold higher risk in COPD subjects with frequent exacerbations during this period (age- and sex-adjusted HR 3.58, 95% CI 2.35-5.44). Analyses restricted to persons without prevalent myocardial infarction or heart failure yielded similar results. CONCLUSION: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is associated with an increased risk for SCD. The risk especially increases in persons with frequent exacerbations 5 years after the diagnosis of COPD. This risk indicator could provide new directions for better-targeted actions to prevent SCD.

Patients with coronary artery disease and diabetes need improved management: a report from the EUROASPIRE IV survey: a registry from the EuroObservational Research Programme of the European Society of Cardiology.

BACKGROUND: In order to influence every day clinical practice professional organisations issue management guidelines. Cross-sectional surveys are used to evaluate the implementation of such guidelines. The present survey investigated screening for glucose perturbations in people with coronary artery disease and compared patients with known and newly detected type 2 diabetes with those without diabetes in terms of their life-style and pharmacological risk factor management in relation to contemporary European guidelines. METHODS: A total of 6187 patients (18-80 years) with coronary artery disease and known glycaemic status based on a self reported history of diabetes (previously known diabetes) or the results of an oral glucose tolerance test and HbA1c (no diabetes or newly diagnosed diabetes) were investigated in EUROASPIRE IV including patients in 24 European countries 2012-2013. The patients were interviewed and investigated in order to enable a comparison between their actual risk factor control with that recommended in current European management guidelines and the outcome in previously conducted surveys. RESULTS: A total of 2846 (46%) patients had no diabetes, 1158 (19%) newly diagnosed diabetes and 2183 (35%) previously known diabetes. The combined use of all four cardioprotective drugs in these groups was 53, 55 and 60%, respectively. A blood pressure target of <140/90 mmHg was achieved in 68, 61, 54% and a LDL-cholesterol target of <1.8 mmol/L in 16, 18 and 28%. Patients with newly diagnosed and previously known diabetes reached an HbA1c <7.0% (53 mmol/mol) in 95 and 53% and 11% of those with previously known diabetes had an HbA1c >9.0% (>75 mmol/mol). Of the patients with diabetes 69% reported on low physical activity. The proportion of patients participating in cardiac rehabilitation programmes was low (≈40 %) and only 27% of those with diabetes had attended diabetes schools. Compared with data from previous surveys the use of cardioprotective drugs had increased and more patients were achieving the risk factor treatment targets. CONCLUSIONS: Despite advances in patient management there is further potential to improve both the detection and management of patients with diabetes and coronary artery disease.

Assessing Prolongation of the Heart Rate Corrected QT Interval in Users of Tricyclic Antidepressants: Advice to Use Fridericia Rather Than Bazett's Correction.

A prolonged heart rate corrected QT interval (QTc) increases the risk of sudden cardiac death. Some methods of heart rate correction (notably Bazett) overestimate QTc in people with high heart rates. Studies suggest that tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs) can prolong the QTc and increase heart rate. Therefore, we aimed to study whether TCA-induced QTc prolongation is a false-positive observation due to overestimation at high heart rates. For this, we included 12,734 participants from the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study, with a total of 27,068 electrocardiograms (ECGs), of which, 331 during TCA use. Associations between use of TCAs, QTc, and heart rate were studied with linear repeated measurement analyses. QT was corrected for heart rate according to Bazett (QTcBazett), Fridericia (QTcFridericia), or a correction based on regression coefficients obtained from the Rotterdam Study data (QTcStatistical). On ECGs recorded during TCA use, QTcBazett was 6.5 milliseconds (95% confidence interval, 4.0-9.0) longer, and heart rate was 5.8 beats per minute (95% confidence interval, 4.7-6.9) faster than during nonuse. QTcFridericia and QTcStatistical were not statistically significantly longer during TCA use than during nonuse. Furthermore, QTcBazett was similar for ECGs recorded during TCA use and nonuse after statistical adjustment for heart rate. According to our results, TCA use does not seem to be associated with QTc prolongation. Therefore, the current advice of regulatory authorities to restrict the use of these drugs and to do regular checkups of the QTc may need to be revised. Other formulas, like Fridericia's, might be preferred.

Right bundle branch block: prevalence, risk factors, and outcome in the general population: results from the Copenhagen City Heart Study.

AIMS: To determine the prevalence, predictors of newly acquired, and the prognostic value of right bundle branch block (RBBB) and incomplete RBBB (IRBBB) on a resting 12-lead electrocardiogram in men and women from the general population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We followed 18 441 participants included in the Copenhagen City Heart Study examined in 1976-2003 free from previous myocardial infarction (MI), chronic heart failure, and left bundle branch block through registry linkage until 2009 for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular outcomes. The prevalence of RBBB/IRBBB was higher in men (1.4%/4.7% in men vs. 0.5%/2.3% in women, P < 0.001). Significant predictors of newly acquired RBBB were male gender, increasing age, high systolic blood pressure, and presence of IRBBB, whereas predictors of newly acquired IRBBB were male gender, increasing age, and low BMI. Right bundle branch block was associated with significantly increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in both genders with age-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of 1.31 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.11-1.54] and 1.87 (95% CI, 1.48-2.36) in the gender pooled analysis with little attenuation after multiple adjustment. Right bundle branch block was associated with increased risk of MI with an HR of 1.67 (95% CI, 1.16-2.42) and pacemaker insertion with an HR of 2.17 (95% CI, 1.22-3.86), but not with chronic heart failure (HR 1.37; 95% CI, 0.96-1.94), atrial fibrillation (HR 1.10; 95% CI, 0.73-1.67), or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR 0.99; 95% CI, 0.60-1.62). The presence of IRBBB was not associated with any adverse outcome. CONCLUSION: In this cohort study, RBBB and IRBBB were two to three times more common among men than women. Right bundle branch block was associated with increased cardiovascular risk and all-cause mortality, whereas IRBBB was not. Contrary to common perception, RBBB in asymptomatic individuals should alert clinicians to cardiovascular risk.

Sex-related trends in mortality in hospitalized men and women after myocardial infarction between 1985 and 2008: equal benefit for women and men.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to study sex-related differences in temporal trends in short- and long-term mortality from 1985 to 2008 in patients hospitalized for acute myocardial infarction. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included a total of 14 434 consecutive patients admitted to our intensive coronary care unit between 1985 and 2008 for myocardial infarction. A total of 4028 patients (28%) were women. Women were more likely to present with a higher risk profile and were equally likely to receive pharmacological and invasive reperfusion therapy compared with men. Women had a higher unadjusted mortality rate at 30 days (odds ratio, 1.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-1.5) and during 20 years (hazard ratio, 1.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.0-1.2) of follow-up. After adjustment for baseline characteristics, 30-day mortality was equal (adjusted odds ratio, 1.0; 95% confidence interval, 0.85-1.2) but the hazard for 20-year mortality was lower (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.77; 95% confidence interval, 0.66-0.90) in women compared to men. For 30-day mortality, there was no significant interaction between sex and age, diagnosis, or diabetes mellitus. Survival improved between 1985 and 2008. Temporal mortality reductions between 1985 and 2008 were at least as high in women as in men with myocardial infarction for both 30-day mortality and long-term mortality hazard. CONCLUSIONS: The fact that adjusted mortality rates for men and women treated for myocardial infarction in an intensive coronary care unit were similar and declined markedly over a 24-year period suggests that both sexes benefit from the evidence-based therapies that have been developed and implemented during this time period.

Decline in 20-year mortality after myocardial infarction in patients with chronic kidney disease: evolution from the prethrombolysis to the percutaneous coronary intervention era.

Cardiovascular disease is the main cause of death in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Here we measured temporal trends in treatment and mortality after myocardial infarction (MI) depending on kidney function at presentation in 12,087 patients admitted for MI to a coronary care unit from 1985 to 2008. The patients were categorized into those with normal kidney function (estimated glomerular filtration rate over 90 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)), and those with CKD as defined by Kidney Foundation practice guidelines, with 8632 patients (71%) at CKD stages 2-5. Use of evidence-based care increased over time in all CKD stages. Mortality rates fell over the entire time period. When comparing data from 2000-2008 to that from 1985-1990, adjusted 30-day mortality fell both in patients with CKD stages 4-5 (adjusted odds 0.33, 95% confidence interval 0.18-0.60) and in those without kidney impairment (adjusted odds 0.21, 95% confidence interval 0.10-0.42). This mortality decrease was sustained during long-term follow-up. There was no significant interaction between kidney function and decade of admission. Overall, median survival was over 20, 15, 8, and 1.8 years for patients with normal kidney function, stage 2, stage 3, and stage 4-5 CKD, respectively. Thus, during the past 25 years, treatment of patients with a MI improved substantially with a concomitant decline in mortality. Although our findings were similar for all stages of kidney function, the prognosis remains poor for patients with stage 4-5 CKD.

Variation in the von Willebrand factor gene is associated with von Willebrand factor levels and with the risk for cardiovascular disease.

High levels of von Willebrand factor (VWF) are associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Although VWF levels are strongly heritable and genetic susceptibility is an important risk factor for CVD, information on the contribution of common VWF gene variants to VWF levels and CVD risk is limited. In a case-control study of 421 young patients with a first event of acute coronary heart disease (CHD) or ischemic stroke (IS), and 409 healthy control participants (men aged ≤ 45 years, women aged ≤ 55 years), 27 haplotype-tagging single-nucleotide polymorphisms (ht-SNPs), covering the total common VWF gene variation, were selected and genotyped. The associations between these SNPs, VWF antigen (VWF:Ag) levels, VWF collagen-binding (VWF:CB) activity, and CVD risk was investigated. Two new associations were identified. For ht-SNP rs4764478 (intron 45), the increase in VWF:Ag levels and VWF:CB activity per minor allele was 0.082 (± 0.026) IU/mL (P = .001) and 0.096 (± 0.030) IU/mL (P = .002), respectively. ht-SNP rs216293 (intron 17) was associated with CVD risk (odds ratio, 1.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-1.86 per minor allele). We confirmed the association between rs1063857 and CVD risk. Our data show that common variants in the VWF gene are associated with VWF levels and with the risk for CVD.

Microsimulation for clinical decision-making in individual patients with established coronary artery disease: a concept.

BACKGROUND: In cardiovascular disease, numerous evidence-based prognostic models have been created, usually based on regression analyses of isolated patient datasets. They tend to focus on one outcome event, based on just one baseline evaluation of the patient, and fail to take the disease process in its dynamic nature into account. We present so-called microsimulation as an attractive alternative for clinical decision-making in individual patients. We aim to further familiarize clinicians with the concept of microsimulation and to inform them about the modeling process. METHODS AND RESULTS: We describe the modeling process, advantages and disadvantages of microsimulation. We illustrate the concept using a hypothetical 60-year-old patient, with several cardiac risk factors, who is hospitalized for myocardial infarction. By using microsimulation, we calculate this patient's probability of death. In our example, this particular patient's estimated life expectancy turns out to be 8.9 years. While calculating this life expectancy, we were able to account for multiple outcome events and changing patient characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Microsimulation takes into account the dynamic nature of coronary artery disease by estimating most likely outcomes regarding a broad range of clinical events. Moreover, microsimulation can be used to evaluate treatment effects by estimating the event-free life expectancy with and without treatment. Hence, microsimulation has several advantages compared to modeling techniques such as regression.

Heart rate variability and atrial fibrillation in the general population: a longitudinal and Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Sex differences and causality of the association between heart rate variability (HRV) and atrial fibrillation (AF) in the general population remain unclear. METHODS: 12,334 participants free of AF from the population-based Rotterdam Study were included. Measures of HRV including the standard deviation of normal RR intervals (SDNN), SDNN corrected for heart rate (SDNNc), RR interval differences (RMSSD), RMSSD corrected for heart rate (RMSSDc), and heart rate were assessed at baseline and follow-up examinations. Joint models, adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, were used to determine the association between longitudinal measures of HRV with new-onset AF. Genetic variants for HRV were used as instrumental variables in a Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis using genome-wide association studies (GWAS) summary-level data. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 9.4 years, 1302 incident AF cases occurred among 12,334 participants (mean age 64.8 years, 58.3% women). In joint models, higher SDNN (fully-adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.24, 1.04-1.47, p = 0.0213), and higher RMSSD (fully-adjusted HR, 95% CI 1.33, 1.13-1.54, p = 0.0010) were significantly associated with new-onset AF. Sex-stratified analyses showed that the associations were mostly prominent among women. In MR analyses, a genetically determined increase in SDNN (odds ratio (OR), 95% CI 1.60, 1.27-2.02, p = 8.36 × 10-05), and RMSSD (OR, 95% CI 1.56, 1.31-1.86, p = 6.32 × 10-07) were significantly associated with an increased odds of AF. CONCLUSION: Longitudinal measures of uncorrected HRV were significantly associated with new-onset AF, especially among women. MR analyses supported the causal relationship between uncorrected measures of HRV with AF. Our findings indicate that measures to modulate HRV might prevent AF in the general population, in particular in women. AF; atrial fibrillation, GWAS; genome-wide association study, IVW; inverse variance weighted, MR; Mendelian randomization, MR-PRESSO; MR-egger and mendelian randomization pleiotropy residual sum and outlier, RMSSD; root mean square of successive RR interval differences, RMSSDc; root mean square of successive RR interval differences corrected for heart rate, SDNN; standard deviation of normal to normal RR intervals, SDNNc; standard deviation of normal to normal RR intervals corrected for heart rate, WME; weighted median estimator. aRotterdam Study n=12,334 bHRV GWAS n=53,174 cAF GWAS n=1,030,836.

Unexploited potential of risk factor treatment in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Most patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease remain at (very) high risk for recurrent events due to suboptimal risk factor control. AIMS: This study aimed to quantify the potential of maximal risk factor treatment on 10-year and lifetime risk of recurrent atherosclerotic cardiovascular events in patients 1 year after a coronary event. METHODS AND RESULTS: Pooled data from six studies are as follows: RESPONSE 1, RESPONSE 2, OPTICARE, EUROASPIRE IV, EUROASPIRE V, and HELIUS. Patients aged ≥45 years at ≥6 months after coronary event were included. The SMART-REACH score was used to estimate 10-year and lifetime risk of recurrent atherosclerotic cardiovascular events with current treatment and potential risk reduction and gains in event-free years with maximal treatment (lifestyle and pharmacological). In 3230 atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease patients (24% women), at median interquartile range (IQR) 1.1 years (1.0-1.8) after index event, 10-year risk was median (IQR) 20% (15-27%) and lifetime risk 54% (47-63%). Whereas 70% used conventional medication, 82% had ≥1 drug-modifiable risk factor not on target. Furthermore, 91% had ≥1 lifestyle-related risk factor not on target. Maximizing therapy was associated with a potential reduction of median (IQR) 10-year risk to 6% (4-8%) and of lifetime risk to 20% (15-27%) and a median (IQR) gain of 7.3 (5.4-10.4) atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease event-free years. CONCLUSIONS: Amongst patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, maximizing current, guideline-based preventive therapy has the potential to mitigate a large part of their risk of recurrent events and to add a clinically important number of event-free years to their lifetime.

Patients with heart disease are at high risk of new cardiac events. This study amongst 3230 patients who had a heart attack or received a stent or bypass surgery shows missed potential for healthy life after a heart attack. The average age of study patients was 61 years, and 24% were women. At 1 year after the cardiac event, nearly one in three (30%) continued smoking, 79% were overweight, 45% reported insufficient physical activity, 40% had high blood pressure, and 65% had a too high LDL ('bad') cholesterol. We calculated that adherence to lifestyle advice and medications could on average halve the risk for another heart attack and add over 7 healthy years of life after a heart attack. This highlights the importance of healthy lifestyle and medication adherence after a heart attack. Key finding:• adherence to lifestyle advice and medications could add over 7 healthy years of life after a heart attack.

Seven-year safety and efficacy of the unrestricted use of drug-eluting stents in saphenous vein bypass grafts.

OBJECTIVES: The aim was to investigate the 7-year clinical outcomes of patients treated with either drug-eluting stents (DES) or bare-metal stents (BMS) for saphenous vein graft disease (SVG). BACKGROUND: Atherosclerotic disease in SVG has several peculiarities which make it difficult to extrapolate outcomes of the use of DES as compared to BMS, from outcomes observed in native coronary arteries. To date no long-term safety and efficacy results for DES in SVG have been published. METHODS: Between January, 2000 and December, 2005 a total of 250 consecutive patients with saphenous vein graft disease were sequentially treated with DES (either sirolimus- or paclitaxel-eluting stents) or with BMS. Yearly follow-up was performed. RESULTS: At 87 months (7.25 years), a total of 101 patients died (58 [46%] in the BMS group and 43 [42%] in the DES group, P-value= 0.4). There was no significant difference in the combined endpoint mortality or myocardial infarction. Cumulative target vessel revascularisation (TVR) was higher in the BMS group compared to the DES group (41% vs. 29%, respectively; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.63, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.39-1.0). The cumulative incidence of major adverse cardiac events was 73% vs. 68% in the BMS and DES groups, respectively (adjusted HR 0.93, 95% CI: 0.67-1.3). CONCLUSIONS: In the present study, the unrestricted use of DES for SVG lesions appeared safe and effective up to 7.25 years- and the use of DES resulted in a clinically relevant lower rate of TVR.