Strengthening the Evidence for a Causal Link between Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Pancreatic Cancer: Insights from Two-Sample and Multivariable Mendelian Randomization.

This two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) study was conducted to investigate the causal associations between type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and the risk of pancreatic cancer (PaCa), as this causal relationship remains inconclusive in existing MR studies. The selection of instrumental variables for T2DM was based on two genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analyses from European cohorts. Summary-level data for PaCa were extracted from the FinnGen and UK Biobank databases. Inverse variance weighted (IVW) and four other robust methods were employed in our MR analysis. Various sensitivity analyses and multivariable MR approaches were also performed to enhance the robustness of our findings. In the IVW and Mendelian Randomization Pleiotropy RESidual Sum and Outlier (MR-PRESSO) analyses, the odds ratios (ORs) for each 1-unit increase in genetically predicted log odds of T2DM were approximately 1.13 for PaCa. The sensitivity tests and multivariable MR supported the causal link between T2DM and PaCa without pleiotropic effects. Therefore, our analyses suggest a causal relationship between T2DM and PaCa, shedding light on the potential pathophysiological mechanisms of T2DM's impact on PaCa. This finding underscores the importance of T2DM prevention as a strategy to reduce the risk of PaCa.

Exploring the causal role of the immune response to varicella-zoster virus on multiple traits: a phenome-wide Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: The immune response to infections could be largely driven by the individual's genes, especially in the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) region. Varicella-zoster virus (VZV) is a highly communicable pathogen. In addition to infection, the reactivations of VZV can be a potential causal factor for multiple traits. Identification of VZV immune response-related health conditions can therefore help elucidate the aetiology of certain diseases. METHODS: A phenome-wide Mendelian randomization (MR) study of anti-VZV immunoglobulin G (IgG) levels with 1370 traits was conducted to explore the potential causal role of VZV-specific immune response on multiple traits using the UK Biobank cohort. For the robustness of the results, we performed MR analyses using five different methods. To investigate the impact of the MHC region on MR results, the analyses were conducted using instrumental variables (IVs) inside (IVmhc) and outside (IVno.mhc) the MHC region or all together (IVfull). RESULTS: Forty-nine single nucleotide polymorphisms (IVfull) were associated with anti-VZV IgG levels, of which five (IVmhc) were located in the MHC region and 44 (IVno.mhc) were not. Statistical evidence (false discovery rate < 0.05 in at least three of the five MR methods) for a causal effect of anti-VZV IgG levels was found on 22 traits using IVmhc, while no evidence was found when using IVno.mhc or IVfull. The reactivations of VZV increased the risk of Dupuytren disease, mononeuropathies of the upper limb, sarcoidosis, coeliac disease, teeth problems and earlier onset of allergic rhinitis, which evidence was concordant with the literature. Suggestive causal evidence (P < 0.05 in at least three of five MR methods) using IVfull, IVmhc and IVno.mhc was detected in 92, 194 and 56 traits, respectively. MR results from IVfull correlated with those from IVmhc or IVno.mhc. However, the results between IVmhc and IVno.mhc were noticeably different, as evidenced by causal associations in opposite directions between anti-VZV IgG and ten traits. CONCLUSIONS: In this exploratory study, anti-VZV IgG was causally associated with multiple traits. IVs in the MHC region might have a substantial impact on MR, and therefore, could be potentially considered in future MR studies.

Predicting risk of endometrial cancer in asymptomatic women (PRECISION): Model development and external validation.

OBJECTIVES: Develop an endometrial cancer risk prediction model and externally validate it for UK primary care use. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: The UK Biobank was used for model development and a linked primary (Clinical Practice Research Datalink, CPRD) and secondary care (HES), mortality (ONS) and cancer register (NRCAS) dataset was used for external validation. POPULATION: Women aged 45-60 years with no history of endometrial cancer or hysterectomy. METHODS: Model development was performed using a flexible parametric survival model and stepwise backward selection aiming to minimise the Akaike information criterion. Model performance on external validation was assessed through flexible calibration plots, calculation of the expected to observed ratio and C-statistic and decision curve analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Endometrial cancer diagnosis within 1-10 years of the index date. RESULTS: Model development included 222 031 women (902 incident endometrial cancer cases) and external validation 3 094 371 women (8585 endometrial cancer cases). The final model (with equation provided) incorporated age, body mass index, waist circumference, age at menarche, menopause and last birth, hormone replacement, tamoxifen and oral contraceptive pill use, type 2 diabetes, smoking and family history of bowel cancer. It was well calibrated on external validation (calibration slope 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11-1.17, E/O 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.05), with moderate/good discrimination (C-statistic 0.70, 95% CI 0.69-0.70) and had improved net benefit compared with previously developed models. CONCLUSIONS: The Predicting risk of endometrial cancer in asymptomatic women model (PRECISION), using easily measurable anthropometric, reproductive, personal and family history, accurately quantifies a woman's 10-year risk of endometrial cancer. Its use could determine eligibility for primary endometrial cancer prevention trials and for targeted resource allocation in UK general practices.

The association of herpes zoster and influenza vaccinations with the risk of developing dementia: a population-based cohort study within the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

BACKGROUND: Dementia affects ability to remember, think, or make decisions that interfere with doing everyday activities. There is no cure, therefore any prevention or delay of the onset is of importance. This study aims to investigate the association between zoster and influenza vaccinations and the risk of developing dementia. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective population-based cohort study using electronic health records from 1469 general practices contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum database with linked hospital episode statistics (HES) and Office for National Statistics (ONS) mortality records. We built two 'matched cohorts': zoster vaccine (854,745 exposed individuals) matched with 8.8 million comparators without a history of zoster vaccination, and influenza vaccine (742,487 exposed individuals) matched with 7.12 million comparators without a history of vaccination as another comparator group. The cohorts were then followed to assess the association of exposure (vaccine) with outcome (dementia diagnosis). RESULTS: Zoster vaccination was associated with a lower risk of dementia diagnosis (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.78 with 95% CI: 0.77-0.79), Alzheimer's diagnosis (adjusted HR 0.91 with 95% CI: 0.89-0.92 and other types of dementia (adjusted HR 0.71 with 95% CI: 0.69-0.72). Influenza vaccination also was associated with a slightly reduced hazard of dementia risk (adjusted HR 0.96 with 95% CI: 0.94-0.97). CONCLUSION: Both zoster vaccine for prevention of shingles / herpes zoster and influenza vaccine to prevent influenza were associated with diminished risk of dementia, with the zoster association appearing more pronounced.

Polygenic risk scores for prediction of breast cancer risk in Asian populations.

PURPOSE: Non-European populations are under-represented in genetics studies, hindering clinical implementation of breast cancer polygenic risk scores (PRSs). We aimed to develop PRSs using the largest available studies of Asian ancestry and to assess the transferability of PRS across ethnic subgroups. METHODS: The development data set comprised 138,309 women from 17 case-control studies. PRSs were generated using a clumping and thresholding method, lasso penalized regression, an Empirical Bayes approach, a Bayesian polygenic prediction approach, or linear combinations of multiple PRSs. These PRSs were evaluated in 89,898 women from 3 prospective studies (1592 incident cases). RESULTS: The best performing PRS (genome-wide set of single-nucleotide variations [formerly single-nucleotide polymorphism]) had a hazard ratio per unit SD of 1.62 (95% CI = 1.46-1.80) and an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.635 (95% CI = 0.622-0.649). Combined Asian and European PRSs (333 single-nucleotide variations) had a hazard ratio per SD of 1.53 (95% CI = 1.37-1.71) and an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.621 (95% CI = 0.608-0.635). The distribution of the latter PRS was different across ethnic subgroups, confirming the importance of population-specific calibration for valid estimation of breast cancer risk. CONCLUSION: PRSs developed in this study, from association data from multiple ancestries, can enhance risk stratification for women of Asian ancestry.

The association between weight at birth and breast cancer risk revisited using Mendelian randomisation.

Observational studies suggest that higher birth weight (BW) is associated with increased risk of breast cancer in adult life. We conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) study to assess whether this association is causal. Sixty independent single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) known to be associated at P < 5 × 10-8 with BW were used to construct (1) a 41-SNP instrumental variable (IV) for univariable MR after removing SNPs with pleiotropic associations with other breast cancer risk factors and (2) a 49-SNP IV for multivariable MR after filtering SNPs for data availability. BW predicted by the 41-SNP IV was not associated with overall breast cancer risk in inverse-variance weighted (IVW) univariable MR analysis of genetic association data from 122,977 breast cancer cases and 105,974 controls (odds ratio = 0.86 per 500 g higher BW; 95% confidence interval 0.73-1.01). Sensitivity analyses using four alternative methods and three alternative IVs, including an IV with 59 of the 60 BW-associated SNPs, yielded similar results. Multivariable MR adjusting for the effects of the 49-SNP IV on birth length, adult height, adult body mass index, age at menarche, and age at menopause using IVW and MR-Egger methods provided estimates consistent with univariable analyses. Results were also similar when all analyses were repeated after restricting to estrogen receptor-positive or -negative breast cancer cases. Point estimates of the odds ratios from most analyses performed indicated an inverse relationship between genetically-predicted BW and breast cancer, but we are unable to rule out an association between the non-genetically-determined component of BW and breast cancer. Thus, genetically-predicted higher BW was not associated with an increased risk of breast cancer in adult life in our MR study.

Review of non-clinical risk models to aid prevention of breast cancer.

A disease risk model is a statistical method which assesses the probability that an individual will develop one or more diseases within a stated period of time. Such models take into account the presence or absence of specific epidemiological risk factors associated with the disease and thereby potentially identify individuals at higher risk. Such models are currently used clinically to identify people at higher risk, including identifying women who are at increased risk of developing breast cancer. Many genetic and non-genetic breast cancer risk models have been developed previously. We have evaluated existing non-genetic/non-clinical models for breast cancer that incorporate modifiable risk factors. This review focuses on risk models that can be used by women themselves in the community in the absence of clinical risk factors characterization. The inclusion of modifiable factors in these models means that they can be used to improve primary prevention and health education pertinent for breast cancer. Literature searches were conducted using PubMed, ScienceDirect and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. Fourteen studies were eligible for review with sample sizes ranging from 654 to 248,407 participants. All models reviewed had acceptable calibration measures, with expected/observed (E/O) ratios ranging from 0.79 to 1.17. However, discrimination measures were variable across studies with concordance statistics (C-statistics) ranging from 0.56 to 0.89. We conclude that breast cancer risk models that include modifiable risk factors have been well calibrated but have less ability to discriminate. The latter may be a consequence of the omission of some significant risk factors in the models or from applying models to studies with limited sample sizes. More importantly, external validation is missing for most of the models. Generalization across models is also problematic as some variables may not be considered applicable to some populations and each model performance is conditioned by particular population characteristics. In conclusion, it is clear that there is still a need to develop a more reliable model for estimating breast cancer risk which has a good calibration, ability to accurately discriminate high risk and with better generalizability across populations.

Improving Clinical Risk Stratification at Diagnosis in Primary Prostate Cancer: A Prognostic Modelling Study.

INTRODUCTION: Over 80% of the nearly 1 million men diagnosed with prostate cancer annually worldwide present with localised or locally advanced non-metastatic disease. Risk stratification is the cornerstone for clinical decision making and treatment selection for these men. The most widely applied stratification systems use presenting prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration, biopsy Gleason grade, and clinical stage to classify patients as low, intermediate, or high risk. There is, however, significant heterogeneity in outcomes within these standard groupings. The International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) has recently adopted a prognosis-based pathological classification that has yet to be included within a risk stratification system. Here we developed and tested a new stratification system based on the number of individual risk factors and incorporating the new ISUP prognostic score. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Diagnostic clinicopathological data from 10,139 men with non-metastatic prostate cancer were available for this study from the Public Health England National Cancer Registration Service Eastern Office. This cohort was divided into a training set (n = 6,026; 1,557 total deaths, with 462 from prostate cancer) and a testing set (n = 4,113; 1,053 total deaths, with 327 from prostate cancer). The median follow-up was 6.9 y, and the primary outcome measure was prostate-cancer-specific mortality (PCSM). An external validation cohort (n = 1,706) was also used. Patients were first categorised as low, intermediate, or high risk using the current three-stratum stratification system endorsed by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines. The variables used to define the groups (PSA concentration, Gleason grading, and clinical stage) were then used to sub-stratify within each risk category by testing the individual and then combined number of risk factors. In addition, we incorporated the new ISUP prognostic score as a discriminator. Using this approach, a new five-stratum risk stratification system was produced, and its prognostic power was compared against the current system, with PCSM as the outcome. The results were analysed using a Cox hazards model, the log-rank test, Kaplan-Meier curves, competing-risks regression, and concordance indices. In the training set, the new risk stratification system identified distinct subgroups with different risks of PCSM in pair-wise comparison (p < 0.0001). Specifically, the new classification identified a very low-risk group (Group 1), a subgroup of intermediate-risk cancers with a low PCSM risk (Group 2, hazard ratio [HR] 1.62 [95% CI 0.96-2.75]), and a subgroup of intermediate-risk cancers with an increased PCSM risk (Group 3, HR 3.35 [95% CI 2.04-5.49]) (p < 0.0001). High-risk cancers were also sub-classified by the new system into subgroups with lower and higher PCSM risk: Group 4 (HR 5.03 [95% CI 3.25-7.80]) and Group 5 (HR 17.28 [95% CI 11.2-26.67]) (p < 0.0001), respectively. These results were recapitulated in the testing set and remained robust after inclusion of competing risks. In comparison to the current risk stratification system, the new system demonstrated improved prognostic performance, with a concordance index of 0.75 (95% CI 0.72-0.77) versus 0.69 (95% CI 0.66-0.71) (p < 0.0001). In an external cohort, the new system achieved a concordance index of 0.79 (95% CI 0.75-0.84) for predicting PCSM versus 0.66 (95% CI 0.63-0.69) (p < 0.0001) for the current NICE risk stratification system. The main limitations of the study were that it was registry based and that follow-up was relatively short. CONCLUSIONS: A novel and simple five-stratum risk stratification system outperforms the standard three-stratum risk stratification system in predicting the risk of PCSM at diagnosis in men with primary non-metastatic prostate cancer, even when accounting for competing risks. This model also allows delineation of new clinically relevant subgroups of men who might potentially receive more appropriate therapy for their disease. Future research will seek to validate our results in external datasets and will explore the value of including additional variables in the system in order in improve prognostic performance.

A variant in MCF2L is associated with osteoarthritis.

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a prevalent, heritable degenerative joint disease with a substantial public health impact. We used a 1000-Genomes-Project-based imputation in a genome-wide association scan for osteoarthritis (3177 OA cases and 4894 controls) to detect a previously unidentified risk locus. We discovered a small disease-associated set of variants on chromosome 13. Through large-scale replication, we establish a robust association with SNPs in MCF2L (rs11842874, combined odds ratio [95% confidence interval] 1.17 [1.11-1.23], p = 2.1 × 10(-8)) across a total of 19,041 OA cases and 24,504 controls of European descent. This risk locus represents the third established signal for OA overall. MCF2L regulates a nerve growth factor (NGF), and treatment with a humanized monoclonal antibody against NGF is associated with reduction in pain and improvement in function for knee OA patients.

The effect of FTO variation on increased osteoarthritis risk is mediated through body mass index: a Mendelian randomisation study.

OBJECTIVE: Variation in the fat mass and obesity-associated (FTO) gene influences susceptibility to obesity. A variant in the FTO gene has been implicated in genetic risk to osteoarthritis (OA). We examined the role of the FTO polymorphism rs8044769 in risk of knee and hip OA in cases and controls incorporating body mass index (BMI) information. METHODS: 5409 knee OA patients, 4355 hip OA patients and up to 5362 healthy controls from 7 independent cohorts from the UK and Australia were genotyped for rs8044769. The association of the FTO variant with OA was investigated in case/control analyses with and without BMI adjustment and in analyses matched for BMI category. A mendelian randomisation approach was employed using the FTO variant as the instrumental variable to evaluate the role of overweight on OA. RESULTS: In the meta-analysis of all overweight (BMI≥25) samples versus normal-weight controls irrespective of OA status the association of rs8044769 with overweight is highly significant (OR[CIs] for allele G=1.14 [01.08 to 1.19], p=7.5×10(-7)). A significant association with knee OA is present in the analysis without BMI adjustment (OR[CIs]=1.08[1.02 to 1.14], p=0.009) but the signal fully attenuates after BMI adjustment (OR[CIs]=0.99[0.93 to 1.05], p=0.666). We observe no evidence for association in the BMI-matched meta-analyses. Using mendelian randomisation approaches we confirm the causal role of overweight on OA. CONCLUSIONS: Our data highlight the contribution of genetic risk to overweight in defining risk to OA but the association is exclusively mediated by the effect on BMI. This is consistent with what is known of the biology of the FTO gene and supports the causative role of high BMI in OA.

Self-reported adult footwear and the risks of lower limb osteoarthritis: the GOAL case control study.

BACKGROUND: Biomechanical factors may play a role in osteoarthritis (OA) development and progression. Previous biomechanical studies have indicated that types of footwear may modulate forces across the knee joint, and high heeled womens' shoes in particular are hypothesised to be detrimental to lower limb joint health. This analysis of data from a case control study investigated persistent users of different adult footwear for risks of knee and hip OA. Our underlying hypotheses were that high heeled, narrow heeled, and hard soled shoe types were putative risk factors for lower limb OA. METHODS: Data on footwear were initially obtained from participants during the Genetics of Osteoarthritis and Lifestyle (GOAL) hospital-based, case control study using standardised interview-delivered questionnaires. An additional questionnaire was later sent to GOAL study participants to verify findings and to further investigate specific shoe use per decade of life. Persistent users of footwear types (high or narrow heel; sole thickness or hardness) were identified from early adulthood. Participants were grouped into single sex knee OA, hip OA or control groups. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated. RESULTS: Univariate analysis of persistent users of women's high heeled and narrow heeled shoes during early adulthood showed negative associations with knee OA and hip OA. After logistic regression, persistent narrow heel users were associated with less risk of OA (knee OA aOR 0.59, 95% CI 0.35 - 1.00 and hip aOR: 0.50, 95% CI 0.30 - 0.85), and other analyses were not statistically significant. Further analysis suggested that women with hip OA may have stopped wearing high and narrow heeled footwear to attenuate hip pain in early adulthood. Consistent associations between shoe soles and OA were not found. CONCLUSIONS: In general, persistent users of high and narrow heeled shoes during early adulthood had a negative association with knee or hip OA. This does not necessarily imply a causal relationship, as changing footwear during early adulthood to modulate index joint pain may provide a possible explanation. Despite the findings of previous biomechanical studies of high heels, we did not find a positive association between women's shoes and lower limb osteoarthritis.

Identification of Genes with Rare Loss of Function Variants Associated with Aggressive Prostate Cancer and Survival.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer (PrCa) is a substantial cause of mortality among men globally. Rare germline mutations in BRCA2 have been validated robustly as increasing risk of aggressive forms with a poorer prognosis; however, evidence remains less definitive for other genes. OBJECTIVE: To detect genes associated with PrCa aggressiveness, through a pooled analysis of rare variant sequencing data from six previously reported studies in the UK Genetic Prostate Cancer Study (UKGPCS). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We accumulated a cohort of 6805 PrCa cases, in which a set of ten candidate genes had been sequenced in all samples. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: We examined the association between rare putative loss of function (pLOF) variants in each gene and aggressive classification (defined as any of death from PrCa, metastatic disease, stage T4, or both stage T3 and Gleason score ≥8). Secondary analyses examined staging phenotypes individually. Cox proportional hazards modelling and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were used to further examine the relationship between mutation status and survival. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: We observed associations between PrCa aggressiveness and pLOF mutations in ATM, BRCA2, MSH2, and NBN (odds ratio = 2.67-18.9). These four genes and MLH1 were additionally associated with one or more secondary analysis phenotype. Carriers of germline mutations in these genes experienced shorter PrCa-specific survival (hazard ratio = 2.15, 95% confidence interval 1.79-2.59, p = 4 × 10-16) than noncarriers. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides further support that rare pLOF variants in specific genes are likely to increase aggressive PrCa risk and may help define the panel of informative genes for screening and treatment considerations. PATIENT SUMMARY: By combining data from several previous studies, we have been able to enhance knowledge regarding genes in which inherited mutations would be expected to increase the risk of more aggressive PrCa. This may, in the future, aid in the identification of men at an elevated risk of dying from PrCa.

The genetic contribution to severe post-traumatic osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVE: to compare the combined role of genetic variants loci associated with risk of knee or hip osteoarthritis (OA) in post-traumatic (PT) and non-traumatic (NT) cases of clinically severe OA leading to total joint replacement. METHODS: A total of 1590 controls, 2168 total knee replacement (TKR) cases (33.2% PT) and 1567 total hip replacement (THR) cases (8.7% PT) from 2 UK cohorts were genotyped for 12 variants previously reported to be reproducibly associated with risk of knee or hip OA. A genetic risk score was generated and the association with PT and NT TKR and THR was assessed adjusting for covariates. RESULTS: For THR, each additional genetic risk variant conferred lower risk among PT cases (OR=1.07, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.19; p=0.24) than NT cases (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.17; p=1.55×10⁻5). In contrast, for TKR, each risk variant conferred slightly higher risk among PT cases (OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.19; p=1.82×10⁻5) than among NT cases (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.1; p=0.00063). CONCLUSIONS: Based on the variants reported to date PT TKR cases have at least as high a genetic contribution as NT cases.

Common genetic variants associated with disease from genome-wide association studies are mutually exclusive in prostate cancer and rheumatoid arthritis.

UNLABELLED: WHAT'S KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT? AND WHAT DOES THE STUDY ADD?: The link between inflammation and cancer has long been reported and inflammation is thought to play a role in the pathogenesis of many cancers, including prostate cancer (PrCa). Over the last 5 years, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have reported numerous susceptibility loci that predispose individuals to many different traits. The present study aims to ascertain if there are common genetic risk profiles that might predispose individuals to both PrCa and the autoimmune inflammatory condition, rheumatoid arthritis. These results could have potential public heath impact in terms of screening and chemoprevention. OBJECTIVES: To investigate if potential common pathways exist for the pathogenesis of autoimmune disease and prostate cancer (PrCa). To ascertain if the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) reported by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) as being associated with susceptibility to PrCa are also associated with susceptibility to the autoimmune disease rheumatoid arthritis (RA). MATERIALS AND METHODS: The original Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC) UK RA GWAS study was expanded to include a total of 3221 cases and 5272 controls. In all, 37 germline autosomal SNPs at genome-wide significance associated with PrCa risk were identified from a UK/Australian PrCa GWAS. Allele frequencies were compared for these 37 SNPs between RA cases and controls using a chi-squared trend test and corrected for multiple testing (Bonferroni). RESULTS: In all, 33 SNPs were able to be analysed in the RA dataset. Proxies could not be located for the SNPs in 3q26, 5p15 and for two SNPs in 17q12. After applying a Bonferroni correction for the number of SNPs tested, the SNP mapping to CCHCR1 (rs130067) retained statistically significant evidence for association (P = 6 × 10(-4) ; odds ratio [OR] = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.06-1.24); this has also been associated with psoriasis. However, further analyses showed that the association of this allele was due to confounding by RA-associated HLA-DRB1 alleles. CONCLUSIONS: There is currently no evidence that SNPs associated with PrCa at genome-wide significance are associated with the development of RA. Studies like this are important in determining if common genetic risk profiles might predispose individuals to many diseases, which could have implications for public health in terms of screening and chemoprevention.

An Integrative Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Model in the UK Biobank.

Pancreatic cancer (PaCa) is a lethal cancer with an increasing incidence, highlighting the need for early prevention strategies. There is a lack of a comprehensive PaCa predictive model derived from large prospective cohorts. Therefore, we have developed an integrated PaCa risk prediction model for PaCa using data from the UK Biobank, incorporating lifestyle-related, genetic-related, and medical history-related variables for application in healthcare settings. We used a machine learning-based random forest approach and a traditional multivariable logistic regression method to develop a PaCa predictive model for different purposes. Additionally, we employed dynamic nomograms to visualize the probability of PaCa risk in the prediction model. The top five influential features in the random forest model were age, PRS, pancreatitis, DM, and smoking. The significant risk variables in the logistic regression model included male gender (OR = 1.17), age (OR = 1.10), non-O blood type (OR = 1.29), higher polygenic score (PRS) (Q5 vs. Q1, OR = 2.03), smoking (OR = 1.82), alcohol consumption (OR = 1.27), pancreatitis (OR = 3.99), diabetes (DM) (OR = 2.57), and gallbladder-related disease (OR = 2.07). The area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of the logistic regression model is 0.78. Internal validation and calibration performed well in both models. Our integrative PaCa risk prediction model with the PRS effectively stratifies individuals at future risk of PaCa, aiding targeted prevention efforts and supporting community-based cancer prevention initiatives.

Association between an inflammatory biomarker score and future dementia diagnosis in the population-based UK Biobank cohort of 500,000 people.

This study was designed to investigate the relationship between a systematic inflammatory biomarker measure, concurrent and later cognitive performance, and future dementia risk. The literature has reported the potential involvement of inflammation in cognitive performance as well as Alzheimer's Disease, but not consistently. We used a population-based cohort of 500,000 people in the UK and assessed the association between a composite inflammatory biomarker and cognitive performance measures across five domains measured concurrently and 4-13 years later, taking advantage of the large sample size. We also assessed the same biomarker's association with dementia diagnosis 3-11 years later in the initially dementia-free sample. We report small but significant associations between elevated biomarker levels and worsened cognitive performance at baseline for four cognitive tasks (OR = 1.204, p<0.001 for Prospective memory, ß = -0.366, p<0.001 for Fluid intelligence, ß = 8.819, p<0.001 for Reaction time, and ß = -0.224, p<0.001 for Numeric memory), comparing the highest quartile of the biomarker to the lowest. We also found that for one measure (Pairs matching) higher biomarker levels were associated with fewer errors, i.e. better performance (ß = -0.096, p<0.001). We also report that the 4th quartiles of the baseline biomarker levels were significantly associated with cognitive task scores assessed years later on the p< = 0.002 level, except for the Pair matching test, for which none of the quartiles remained a significant predictor. Finally, the highest biomarker quartile was significantly associated with increased dementia risk compared to the lowest quartile (HR = 1.349, p<0.001). A case-only analysis to assess disease subtype heterogeneity suggested probable differences in the association with the highest biomarker quartile between vascular dementia and Alzheimer disease subtypes (OR = 1.483, p = 0.055). Our results indicate that systemic inflammation may play a small but significant part in dementia pathophysiology, especially in vascular dementia.

Family History of Prostate Cancer and Survival Outcomes in the UK Genetic Prostate Cancer Study.

BACKGROUND: A family history (FH) of prostate cancer (PrCa) is associated with an increased likelihood of PrCa diagnosis. Conflicting evidence exists regarding familial PrCa and clinical outcomes among PrCa patients, including all-cause mortality/overall survival (OS), PrCa-specific survival (PCSS), aggressive histology, and stage at diagnosis. OBJECTIVE: To determine how the number, degree, and age of a PrCa patient's affected relatives are associated with OS and PCSS of those already diagnosed with PrCa. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The UK Genetic Prostate Cancer Study is a longitudinal, multi-institutional, observational study collecting baseline and follow-up clinical data since 1992. We examined OS and PCSS in 16340 men by degree and number of relatives with prostate and genetically related cancers (breast, ovarian, and colorectal). OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: The primary outcome was all-cause mortality among PrCa patients. The risk of death with respect to FH was assessed by calculating hazard ratios from Cox proportional hazard regression models, adjusting for relevant factors. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: A stronger FH was inversely associated with the risk of all-cause and PrCa-specific mortality. This association was greater in those with an increasing number (p-trend < 0.001) and increasing closeness (p-trend < 0.001) of the diagnosed relatives. Patients with at least one first-degree relative were at a lower risk of all-cause mortality than those with no FH (hazard ratio = 0.82 [95% confidence interval 0.75-0.89]). The population is largely of European ancestry, and this may cause an issue with representation and generalisation. Data are missing on epidemiological risk factors for death such as smoking and on comorbidities. Recall of family members' diagnoses may affect the classification of FH in unconfirmed cases. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the investigation of the type and timing of relatives' cancers, it is likely that reductions in mortality are due almost completely to a greater awareness of the disease. This study provides information for clinicians guiding patients and their relatives based on their familial risk. It shows the importance of screening and awareness programmes, which are likely to improve survival among men with an FH. PATIENT SUMMARY: We were interested in how a family history of prostate cancer affects survival in prostate cancer patients. We studied 16340 patients, categorised them according to the strength of their family history, and found that the stronger their family history, the better they did in terms of overall survival. We looked at the type and timing of patients' diagnoses compared with those of their relatives and found that this effect is likely to be explained by awareness, which indicates the importance of screening and awareness programmes.

Genetic contribution to radiographic severity in osteoarthritis of the knee.

OBJECTIVE: Knee osteoarthritis (OA) has a significant genetic component. The authors have assessed the role of three variants reported to influence risk of knee OA with p<5×10-8 in determining patellofemoral and tibiofemoral Kellgren Lawrence (K/L) grade in knee OA cases. METHODS: 3474 knee OA cases with sky-line and weight-bearing antero-posterior x-rays of the knee were selected based on the presentation of K/L grade ≥2 at either the tibiofemoral or patellofemoral compartments for one or both knees. Patients belonging to three UK cohorts, were genotyped for rs143383, rs4730250 and rs11842874 mapping to the GDF5, COG5 and MCF2L genes, respectively. The association between tibiofemoral K/L grade and patellofemoral K/L grade was assessed after adjusting for age, gender and body mass index. RESULTS: No significant association was found between the rs4730250 and radiographic severity. The rs11842874 mapping to MCF2L was found to be nominally significantly associated with patellofemoral K/L grade as a quantitative trait (p=0.027) but not as a binary trait. The GDF5 single nucleotide polymorphism rs143383 was associated with tibiofemoral K/L grade (ß=0.05 (95% CI 0.02 to 0.08) p=0.0011). CONCLUSIONS: Our data indicate that within individuals affected by radiographic knee OA, OAGDF5 has a modest but significant effect on radiographic severity after adjustment for the major risk factors.

A role for PACE4 in osteoarthritis pain: evidence from human genetic association and null mutant phenotype.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to assess if genetic variation in the PACE4 (paired amino acid converting enzyme 4) gene Pcsk6 influences the risk for symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA). METHODS: Ten PCSK6 single nucleotide polymorphisms were tested for association in a discovery cohort of radiographic knee OA (n=156 asymptomatic and 600 symptomatic cases). Meta-analysis of the minor allele at rs900414 was performed in three additional independent cohorts (total n=674 asymptomatic and 2068 symptomatic). Pcsk6 knockout mice and wild-type C57BL/6 mice were compared in a battery of algesiometric assays, including hypersensitivity in response to intraplantar substance P, pain behaviours in response to intrathecal substance P and pain behaviour in the abdominal constriction test. RESULTS: In the discovery cohort of radiographic knee OA, an intronic single nucleotide polymorphism at rs900414 was significantly associated with symptomatic OA. Replication in three additional cohorts confirmed that the minor allele at rs900414 was consistently increased among asymptomatic compared to symptomatic radiographic knee OA cases in all four cohorts. A fixed-effects meta-analysis yielded an OR=1.35 (95% CI 1.17 to 1.56; p=4.3×10(-5) and no significant between-study heterogeneity). Studies in mice revealed that Pcsk6 knockout mice were significantly protected against pain in a battery of algesiometric assays. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that a variant in PCSK6 is strongly associated with protection against pain in knee OA, offering some insight as to why, in the presence of the same structural damage, some individuals develop chronic pain and others are protected. Studies in Pcsk6 null mutant mice further implicate PACE4 in pain.

Risk Factors Associated with Pancreatic Cancer in the UK Biobank Cohort.

Evidence on pancreatic cancer (PaCa) risk factors from large population-based cohort studies is limited. This study investigated the PaCa risk factors and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of modifiable risk factors in the UK Biobank cohort. The UK Biobank is a prospective cohort consisting of 502,413 participants with a mean follow-up time of 8.2 years. A binomial generalized linear regression model was used to calculate relative risks for PaCa risk factors. PAF was calculated to estimate the proportional reduction in PaCa if modifiable risk factors were to be eliminated. A total of 728 (0.14%) PaCa incident cases and 412,922 (82.19%) non-PaCa controls were analyzed. The non-modifiable risk factors included age and gender. The modifiable risk factors were cigarette smoking, overweight and obesity, increased waist circumstance, abdominal obesity, Diabetic Mellitus (DM), and pancreatitis history. The PAF suggested that eliminating smoking and obesity can contribute around a 16% reduction in PaCa cases while avoiding abdominal obesity can eliminate PaCa cases by 22%. Preventing pancreatitis and DM could potentially reduce PaCa cases by 1% and 6%, respectively. This study has identified modifiable and non-modifiable PaCa risk factors in the UK population. The PAF of modifiable risk factors can be applied to inform PaCa prevention programs.