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Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and reducing air pollution represent two pressing and interwoven environmental challenges. While international carbon markets, such as the European Union emissions trading system (EU ETS), have demonstrated their effectiveness in curbing carbon emissions (CO[Formula: see text]), their indirect impact on hazardous co-pollutants remains understudied. This study investigates how key toxic air pollutants-sulfur dioxide (SO[Formula: see text]), fine particulate matter (PM[Formula: see text]), and nitrogen oxides (NO[Formula: see text])-evolved after the introduction of the EU ETS with a comparative analysis of regulated and unregulated sectors. Leveraging the generalized synthetic control method, we offer an ex post analysis of how the EU ETS and concurrent emission standards may have jointly generated sizable pollution reductions in regulated sectors between 2005 and 2021. We provide an aggregate assessment that these pollution reductions could translate into large health co-benefits, potentially in the hundreds of billions of Euros, even when bounding the effect of emission standards. These order-of-magnitude estimates underscore key implications for policy appraisal and motivate further microlevel research around the health co-benefits of carbon abatement.
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We examine trends in racial and ethnic discrimination in hiring in six European and North American countries: Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, the Netherlands, and the United States. Our sample includes all available discrimination estimates from 90 field experimental studies of hiring discrimination, encompassing more than 170,000 applications for jobs. The years covered vary by country, ranging from 1969 to 2017 for Great Britain to 1994 to 2017 for Germany. We examine trends in discrimination against four racial-ethnic origin groups: African/Black, Asian, Latin American/Hispanic, and Middle Eastern or North African. The results indicate that levels of discrimination in callbacks have remained either unchanged or slightly increased overall for most countries and origin categories. There are three notable exceptions. First, hiring discrimination against ethnic groups with origins in the Middle East and North Africa increased during the 2000s relative to the 1990s. Second, we find that discrimination in France declined, although from very high to "merely" high levels. Third, we find evidence that discrimination in the Netherlands has increased over time. Controls for study characteristics do not change these trends. Contrary to the idea that discrimination will tend to decline in Western countries, we find that discrimination has not fallen over the last few decades in five of the six Western countries we examine.
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Emprego , Grupos Raciais , Racismo , Humanos , Etnicidade , Hispânico ou Latino , Estados Unidos , População Branca , Canadá , França , Alemanha , Países Baixos , Reino Unido , População Negra , População do Oriente MédioRESUMO
In 2013 to 2017, avian influenza A(H7N9) virus has caused five severe epidemic waves of human infections in China. The role of live bird markets (LBMs) in the transmission dynamics of H7N9 remains unclear. Using a Bayesian phylodynamic approach, we shed light on past H7N9 transmission events at the human-LBM interface that were not directly observed using case surveillance data-based approaches. Our results reveal concurrent circulation of H7N9 lineages in Yangtze and Pearl River Delta regions, with evidence of local transmission during each wave. Our results indicate that H7N9 circulated in humans and LBMs for weeks to months before being first detected. Our findings support the seasonality of H7N9 transmission and suggest a high number of underreported infections, particularly in LBMs. We provide evidence for differences in virus transmissibility between low and highly pathogenic H7N9. We demonstrate a regional spatial structure for the spread of H7N9 among LBMs, highlighting the importance of further investigating the role of local live poultry trade in virus transmission. Our results provide estimates of avian influenza virus (AIV) transmission at the LBM level, providing a unique opportunity to better prepare surveillance plans at LBMs for response to future AIV epidemics.
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Subtipo H7N9 do Vírus da Influenza A , Influenza Aviária , Influenza Humana , Animais , Humanos , Teorema de Bayes , Aves Domésticas , China/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Emerging and endemic zoonotic diseases continue to threaten human and animal health, our social fabric, and the global economy. Zoonoses frequently emerge from congregate interfaces where multiple animal species and humans coexist, including farms and markets. Traditional food markets are widespread across the globe and create an interface where domestic and wild animals interact among themselves and with humans, increasing the risk of pathogen spillover. Despite decades of evidence linking markets to disease outbreaks across the world, there remains a striking lack of pathogen surveillance programs that can relay timely, cost-effective, and actionable information to decision-makers to protect human and animal health. However, the strategic incorporation of environmental surveillance systems in markets coupled with novel pathogen detection strategies can create an early warning system capable of alerting us to the risk of outbreaks before they happen. Here, we explore the concept of "smart" markets that utilize continuous surveillance systems to monitor the emergence of zoonotic pathogens with spillover potential.IMPORTANCEFast detection and rapid intervention are crucial to mitigate risks of pathogen emergence, spillover and spread-every second counts. However, comprehensive, active, longitudinal surveillance systems at high-risk interfaces that provide real-time data for action remain lacking. This paper proposes "smart market" systems harnessing cutting-edge tools and a range of sampling techniques, including wastewater and air collection, multiplex assays, and metagenomic sequencing. Coupled with robust response pathways, these systems could better enable Early Warning and bolster prevention efforts.
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Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes , Monitoramento Epidemiológico , Animais , Humanos , Animais Selvagens , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/prevenção & controle , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/veterinária , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Zoonoses/epidemiologia , Zoonoses/prevenção & controleRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) constitute significant zoonotic pathogens encompassing a broad spectrum of subtypes. Notably, the H4 subtype of AIVs has a pronounced ability to shift hosts. The escalating prevalence of the H4 subtype heightens the concern for its zoonotic potential, signaling an urgent need for vigilance. METHODS: During the period from December 2021 to November 2023, we collected AIV-related environmental samples and assessed them using a comprehensive protocol that included nucleic acid testing, gene sequencing, isolation culture, and resequencing. RESULTS: In this study, a total of 934 environmental samples were assessed, revealing a remarkably high detection rate (43.66%, 289/662) of AIV in the live poultry market. Notably, the H4N1 subtype AIV (cs2301) was isolated from the live poultry market and its complete genome sequence was successfully determined. Subsequent analysis revealed that cs2301, resulting from a reassortment event between wild and domesticated waterfowl, exhibits multiple mutations and demonstrates potential for host transfer. CONCLUSIONS: Our research once again demonstrates the significant role of wild and domesticated waterfowl in the reassortment process of avian influenza virus, enriching the research on the H4 subtype of AIV, and emphasizing the importance of proactive monitoring the environment related to avian influenza virus.
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Vírus da Influenza A , Influenza Aviária , Animais , Influenza Aviária/epidemiologia , Filogenia , Vírus da Influenza A/genética , Aves Domésticas , China/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Biological market theory can be used to explain intraspecific cooperation, interspecific mutualism, and sexual selection through models of game theory. These models describe the interactions between organisms as two classes of traders (buyers/sellers) exchanging commodities in the form of goods (e.g. food, shelter, matings) and services (e.g. warning calls, protection). Here, we expand biological market theory to include auction theory where bidding serves to match buyers and sellers. In a reverse auction, the seller increases the value of the item or decreases the cost until a buyer steps forward. We provide several examples of ecological systems that may have reverse auctions as underlying mechanisms to form mutualistic relationships. We focus on the yellow baboon (Papio cynocephalus) mating system as a case study to propose how the mechanisms of a reverse auction, which have the unintended but emergent consequence of producing a mutually beneficial outcome that improves collective reproductive benefits of the troop in this multi-female multi-male polygynandrous social system. For the yellow baboon, we posit that the "seller" is the reproductively cycling female, and the "buyer" is a male looking to mate with a cycling female. To the male, the "item for the sale" is the opportunity to sire an offspring, the price is providing safety and foraging time (via consortship) to the female. The "increasing value of the item for sale" is the chance of conception, which increases with each cycle since a female has resumed cycling post-partum. The female's sexual swelling is an honest indicator of that cycle's probability of conception, and since resident males can track a female's cycle since resumption, there is transparency. The males presumably know the chance of conception when choosing to bid by offering consortship. Across nature, this reverse auction game likely exists in other inter- and intraspecific social relationships. Considering an ecological system as a reverse auction broadens our view of social evolution and adaptations through the lens of human economic structures.
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Comportamento Sexual Animal , Animais , Feminino , Masculino , Papio/fisiologia , Reprodução , Teoria dos Jogos , Simbiose , Modelos BiológicosRESUMO
Circumstances that precipitate interactions among species that have never interacted during their evolutionary histories create ideal conditions for the generation of zoonoses. Zoonotic diseases have caused some of the most devastating epidemics in human history. Contact among species that come from different ecosystems or regions creates the risk of zoonoses. In certain situations, humans are generating and promoting conditions that contribute to the creation of infectious diseases and zoonoses. These conditions lead to interactions between wildlife species that have hitherto not interacted under normal circumstances. I call for recognition of the zoonotic potential that novel and unwanted interactions have; identification of these new interactions that are occurring among wild animals, domestic animals, and humans; and efforts to stop these kinds of interactions because they can give rise to zoonotic outbreaks. Live animal markets, the exotic pet trade, illegal wildlife trade, human use and consumption of wild animals, invasive non-native species, releasing of exotic pets, and human encroachment in natural areas are among the activities that cause the most interactions among wild species, domestic species, and humans. These activities should not occur and must be controlled efficiently to prevent future epidemic zoonoses. Society must develop a keen ability to identify these unnatural interactions and prevent them. Controlling these interactions and efficiently addressing their causal factors will benefit human health and, in some cases, lead to positive environmental, ethical, and socioeconomic outcomes. Until these actions are taken, humanity will face future zoonoses and zoonotic pandemic.
Evitar interacciones novedosas e indeseadas entre especies para disminuir el riesgo de zoonosis Resumen Las circunstancias que promueven interacciones entre especies que nunca han interactuado durante sus historias evolutivas crean condiciones ideales para la generación de zoonosis. Las enfermedades zoonóticas han causado algunas de las epidemias más devastadoras en la historia de la humanidad. El contacto entre especies que provienen de diferentes ecosistemas o regiones crea el riesgo de zoonosis. En determinadas situaciones, los seres humanos estamos generando y promoviendo condiciones que contribuyen a la creación de enfermedades infecciosas y zoonosis. Estas condiciones conducen a interacciones entre especies silvestres que hasta ahora no habían interactuado en circunstancias normales. Hago un llamado para que se reconozca el potencial zoonótico que tienen las interacciones nuevas y no deseadas; que se identifiquen estas nuevas interacciones que provocamos entre animales silvestres, animales domésticos y humanos; y esforzarnos para detener este tipo de interacciones porque pueden dar lugar a brotes zoonóticos. Los mercados de animales vivos, el comercio de mascotas exóticas, el comercio ilegal de vida silvestre, el uso y consumo humano de animales silvestres, las especies invasoras no nativas, la liberación de mascotas exóticas y la invasión humana en áreas naturales, se encuentran entre las actividades que causan la mayor cantidad de interacciones entre especies silvestres, especies domésticas y humanos. Estas actividades no deberían ocurrir y deben controlarse eficientemente para prevenir futuras zoonosis epidémicas. La sociedad debe desarrollar una gran capacidad para identificar estas interacciones antinaturales y prevenirlas. Controlar estas interacciones y abordar eficientemente sus factores causales beneficiará la salud humana y, en algunos casos, conducirá a resultados ambientales, éticos y socioeconómicos positivos. Mientras estas medidas no se tomen, la humanidad enfrentará futuras zoonosis y pandemias zoonóticas.
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Animais Selvagens , Zoonoses , Zoonoses/prevenção & controle , Zoonoses/epidemiologia , Animais , Humanos , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Animais Domésticos , Espécies IntroduzidasRESUMO
BACKGROUND: We investigated the presence of Chlamydia psittaci in poultry and the environment in live poultry wholesale markets in Changsha during 2021-2022 and conducted a phylogenetic analysis to understand its distribution in this market. METHODS: In total, 483 samples were analyzed using real-time polymerase chain reaction and 17 C. psittaci-positive samples using high-throughput sequencing, BLAST similarity, and phylogenetic analysis. RESULTS: Twenty-two out of 483 poultry and environmental samples were positive for C. psittaci (overall positivity rate: 4.55%) with no difference in positivity rates over 12 months. Chlamydia psittaci was detected at 11 sampling points (overall positivity rate: 27.5%), including chicken, duck, and pigeon/chicken/duck/goose shops, with pigeon shops having the highest positivity rate (46.67%). The highest positivity rates were found in sewage (12.5%), poultry fecal (7.43%), cage swab (6.59%), avian pharyngeal/cloacal swab (3.33%), and air (2.29%) samples. The ompA sequences were identified in two strains of C. psittaci, which were determined to bear genotype B using phylogenetic analysis. Thus, during monitoring, C. psittaci genotype B was detected in the poultry and environmental samples from the poultry wholesale market in Changsha. CONCLUSIONS: To address the potential zoonotic threat, C. psittaci monitoring programs in live poultry markets should be enhanced.
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Chlamydophila psittaci , Filogenia , Doenças das Aves Domésticas , Aves Domésticas , Psitacose , Animais , Chlamydophila psittaci/genética , Chlamydophila psittaci/isolamento & purificação , Chlamydophila psittaci/classificação , China/epidemiologia , Psitacose/microbiologia , Psitacose/veterinária , Psitacose/epidemiologia , Aves Domésticas/microbiologia , Doenças das Aves Domésticas/microbiologia , Doenças das Aves Domésticas/epidemiologia , Galinhas/microbiologia , Patos/microbiologia , Fezes/microbiologia , Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase em Tempo RealRESUMO
It has been argued that cost-effectiveness analysis of branded pharmaceuticals only considers static efficiency, neglects dynamic effects and undermines incentives for socially valuable innovation. We present a framework for designing pharmaceutical pricing policy to achieve dynamic efficiency. We develop a coherent framework that identifies the long-term static and dynamic benefits and costs of offering manufacturers different levels of reward. The share of value that would maximise long-term population health depends on how the quantity and quality of innovation responds to payment. Using evidence of the response of innovation to payment, the optimal share of value of new pharmaceuticals to offer to manufacturers is roughly 20% (range: 6%-51%). Reanalysis of a sample of NICE technology appraisals suggests that, in most cases, the share of value offered to manufacturers and the price premium paid by the English NHS were too high. In the UK, application of optimal shares would offer considerable benefits under both a public health objective and a broader view of social welfare. We illustrate how an optimal share of value can be delivered through a range of payment mechanisms including indirect price regulation via the use of different approval norms by an HTA body.
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Indústria Farmacêutica , Medicina Estatal , Humanos , Custos e Análise de Custo , Seguridade Social , Preparações FarmacêuticasRESUMO
With the increasing globalization of drug development and the publication of the International Council for Harmonisation (ICH) E17 guideline (ICH International Council for Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use 2017), multi-regional clinical trials (MRCTs) have become a preferred option to accelerate the availability of new medical products by design, execution and simultaneous submission under one protocol. MRCTs, with the participation of all major regions including countries from both developed and emerging markets, surely make new drug development more efficient. Even though the proposed estimand framework (ICH E9 (R1) (2019), came later in 2019 and was not mentioned in ICH E17, the application of the estimand framework has the potential to enhance the design, execution, and analysis in MRCTs. Defining an estimand within the regional context in MRCTs is an important issue that requires careful consideration. Given that consistency evaluation of treatment effects across regions is critical in MRCTs, the utilization of the estimand framework for regional consistency evaluation is also worth discussion. This paper aims to address these two questions. The five attributes of the estimand definition are discussed within a multi-regional context. It is imperative to thoroughly consider regional intrinsic/extrinsic factors when planning the estimand and estimation of MRCTs. A holistic approach is summarized to conduct consistency evaluation. When a regional inconsistency is observed, the possible reasons need to be further explored under five attributes of the estimand framework. Two real case studies are discussed to illustrate the application of the estimand framework in the consistency evaluation.
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BACKGROUND: Food safety is integral to food security and is increasingly becoming a significant concern in the urban areas of Africa, which are rapidly growing in population. In the case of Ghana, many urban households depend on traditional open-air markets for most of their food needs. However, these urban food markets also depend on domestic food supply chains, which are prone to risks, including poor hygiene and sanitation and weather seasonality. Food safety compliance has associated costs which increase the unit cost of food products. Thus, higher food price is a risk factor to food availability and accessibility-fundamental pillars of food security. METHOD: We use food microbial data and food retail data from food market surveys in major cities in Ghana to assess the safety of selected fresh food commodities and how retailers handle the food products they sell. Additionally, based on a two-wave balanced panel household data, we used fixed effects Poisson and Correlated Random Effects (CRE) Probit models to estimate the effect of weather seasonality on the incidence of diarrhoea and urban household dietary diversity score (HDDS). A final sample of 609 households and 565 market respondents participated in the study. RESULTS: Our findings show that selected food samples tested positive for Staphylococcus aureus and E.coli and had aflatoxin B1 levels above 5.0 ppb. Additionally, the household incidence of diarrhoea/vomiting, a proxy for food safety status, is higher in the dry season. In the dry season, the household incidence of diarrhoea/vomiting increases on average by a probability of 38% points compared to the rainy season. Regarding HDDS, the average HDDS is 7.3; however, we did not find the effect of seasonality on HDDS to be significant. CONCLUSIONS: Although urban food availability and household dietary diversity are not challenges for many urban households, food safety is a challenge in the major food markets in Ghanaian cities and is associated with weather seasonality. Foods available in traditional open-air markets are not always safe for consumption, undermining households' food security. Weak enforcement of food safety regulations contributes to the food safety challenges in Ghanaian urban food markets.
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Diarreia , Dieta , Humanos , Cidades , Gana/epidemiologia , Vômito , Abastecimento de AlimentosRESUMO
The interaction between land plants and mycorrhizal fungi (MF) forms perhaps the world's most prevalent biological market. Most plants participate in such markets, in which MF collect nutrients from the soil and trade them with host plants in exchange for carbon. In a recent study, M. D. Whiteside et al. [Curr. Biol. 29, 2043-2050.e8 (2019)] conducted experiments that allowed them to quantify the behavior of arbuscular MF when trading phosphorus with their host roots. Their experimental techniques enabled the researchers to infer the quantities traded under multiple scenarios involving different amounts of phosphorus resources initially held by different MF patches. We use these observations to confirm a revealed preference hypothesis, which characterizes behavior in Walrasian equilibrium, a centerpiece of general economic equilibrium theory.
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Modelos Econômicos , Natureza , Carbono/análise , Micorrizas/fisiologia , Fósforo/análiseRESUMO
This paper presents a model in which some sophisticated investors do not wait for receipt of a signal before purchasing an asset. Its critical innovation is an arbitrage equation for frontrunning. Some sophisticates who will receive information in the next period arbitrage against similar sophisticates who will act on that information in that next period when the information is received. The costs of such frontrunning are borne totally by unsophisticated traders-with no gain or loss to sophisticates. Nor does the frontrunning produce any information discovery. Thus, this paper describes a financial-market anomaly: of inefficient financial transactions with gains to no one.
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Financial markets have undergone a deep reorganization during the last 20 y. A mixture of technological innovation and regulatory constraints has promoted the diffusion of market fragmentation and high-frequency trading. The new stock market has changed the traditional ecology of market participants and market professionals, and financial markets have evolved into complex sociotechnical institutions characterized by a great heterogeneity in the time scales of market members' interactions that cover more than eight orders of magnitude. We analyze three different datasets for two highly studied market venues recorded in 2004 to 2006, 2010 to 2011, and 2018. Using methods of complex network theory, we show that transactions between specific couples of market members are systematically and persistently overexpressed or underexpressed. Contemporary stock markets are therefore networked markets where liquidity provision of market members has statistically detectable preferences or avoidances with respect to some market members over time with a degree of persistence that can cover several months. We show a sizable increase in both the number and persistence of networked relationships between market members in most recent years and how technological and regulatory innovations affect the networked nature of the markets. Our study also shows that the portfolio of strategic trading decisions of high-frequency traders has evolved over the years, adding to the liquidity provision other market activities that consume market liquidity.
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The engagement between markets and cultural hegemonies is shaped by the politics that promote or deny the emergence of fresh legitimations in response to the opportunities offered to consumers by new commodities. In the case of Islam and the assisted reproductive technology (ART) market, core cultural values concerning procreation, family and lineage come into direct conflict with the potential consumer demand generated by new ART technologies. Shaped by the character of multiple Islamic modernities and the authority structures of religion and state, it is the Shi'a-Sunni divide which most illuminates the politics of emergence driving the different Islamic responses to those cultural tensions. In Sunni states the hegemonic challenge of the ART commodity market is contained by the senior clerics, the traditional intellectuals of Islamic authority, often acting in concert with the state apparatus. In contrast, in Shi'a states the flexibility of its religious authority structures underpinned by the principles of ijtihad allows the formation of an alliance between traditional and medical organic intellectuals which facilitates the consumer choice of both ART commodities and legitimating values. However, what remains unresolved is the long-term impact of that trasformismo on the stability of the social structures which the Shi'a moral economy serves.
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Islamismo , Política , Técnicas de Reprodução Assistida , Humanos , ComércioRESUMO
We examine the impact of climate risk on discouraged borrowers among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the eurozone, using a unique European Central Bank dataset focusing on the demand side of credit markets. We argue that two opposing channels may exist in this relationship: Either climate risk has a negative effect stemming from increased demand for sustainable or climate-resilient projects that enhance creditworthiness, or climate risk has a positive effect arising from heightened climate uncertainty and risk aversion, leading to credit self-rationing among SMEs. Our findings reveal that heightened climate risk prompts SMEs to self-ration credit, leading to higher probabilities of discouraged borrowers. Our research deepens the understanding of the impact of climate risk on credit-related decisions, stressing the need for proactive measures to integrate climate risk assessments into regulatory frameworks and lending practices. The findings underscore the vulnerability of SMEs to climate risk, emphasizing emphasizing the importance of tailored support mechanisms for economic resilience.
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Interest in the "microbiota" of dairy products and studies on this subject is increasing day by day. In this study, homemade buffalo yogurt was collected from five different local producers in Amasra province, and their microbiota was evaluated by next-generation sequencing. Salmonella enterica was found in all yogurts (1.2-3.17%). Klebsiella pneumoniae was found to be 1.12% and 5.15% in two of the samples. Staphylococcus aureus was found to be 3.17% in only a single sample. The presence of these potentially pathogenic bacteria suggests that more attention should be paid to hygiene rules during homemade production, processing, and distribution of these products being offered for sale in public markets. These yogurt products can potentially carry risks of contamination and should be periodically checked by the relevant authorities.
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Leite , Iogurte , Animais , Leite/microbiologia , Iogurte/análise , Iogurte/microbiologia , Búfalos , Microbiologia de Alimentos , Staphylococcus aureusRESUMO
More sustainable biosensor production is growing in importance, allowing for the development of technological solutions for several industries, such as those in the health, chemical, and food sectors. Tracking the latest advancements in biosensors' scientific production is fundamental to determining the opportunities for the future of the biosensing field. This article aims to map scientific production in the biosensors field by running a bibliometric analysis of journal articles registered in the Web of Science database under biosensor-related vital concepts. The key concepts were selected by researchers and biosensor technology developers working on the BioAssembler Horizon project. The findings lead to identifying the scientific and technological knowledge base on biosensing devices and tracking the main scientific organisations developing this technology throughout the COVID-19 period (2019-2023). The institutional origin of the publications characterised the global distribution of related knowledge competencies and research partnerships. These results are discussed, shedding light on the scientific, economic, political, and structural factors that contribute to the formation of a scientific knowledge-based focus on the performance and design of these sensors. Moreover, the lack of scientific ties between the three axes of organisations producing expertise in this area (China, USA, and Russia) points towards the need to find synergies through new mechanisms of co-authorship and collaboration.
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Bibliometria , Técnicas Biossensoriais , COVID-19 , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2/isolamento & purificaçãoRESUMO
In addressing the ramifications of climate change, the shipping industry, reliant on energy, has been integrated into the Emissions Trading System (ETS). This study utilizes the quantile connectedness model to investigate the information spillover mechanisms and extreme time-varying interconnections among carbon, energy, and shipping markets. Whether climate policy uncertainty drives the extreme interconnections is also discussed during both pre- and post-Paris Agreement periods, by using GARCH-MIDAS model. The empirical findings underscore the following key points: (i) the systemic connectedness is highly sensitive to market conditions and major events, increasing significantly under extreme market conditions; (ii) following the implementation of the Paris Agreement, an elevated level of informational interdependence has manifested between the carbon market and the energy and shipping sectors; (iii) the information transfer mechanism between carbon and shipping sectors creates direct and indirect spillover paths, with crude oil market mediating the indirect path; (iv) climate policy uncertainty greatly affects the extreme time-varying interconnections, and this impact has decreased after the Paris Agreement came into effect. These results offer valuable insights for market policymakers and shipping companies in achieving a balance between carbon emission reduction and shipping business, particularly amidst heightened climate policy uncertainty.
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Carbono , Mudança Climática , Incerteza , Modelos TeóricosRESUMO
This research presents an in-depth investigation into the dynamic correlation between geopolitical conflicts and carbon markets utilizing the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) technique. The analysis focuses on the interconnectedness between the Geopolitical Risk Index Daily (GPRD) and vital carbon pricing instruments, specifically the Intercontinental Exchange Endex European Union Allowance (ECEFDC), KraneShares California Carbon Allowance Strat ETF (KCCAK), Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange China Emission Allowances Online Transactions (SAXCEA), and S&P Global Ex-Japan LargeMidCap Carbon Efficient Index (SPGJ). The daily fluctuations were traced from May 2021 to July 2023. The analysis is divided into short- and long-term connectedness, with particular emphasis on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the GPRD's spillover on carbon markets. The short-term connectedness (1-5 days) between GPRD and ECEFDC shows variability, fluctuating between 10% and 40%. Conversely, long-term connectedness exhibited a significant increase during the conflict, peaking at approximately 34% by mid-2022. The analysis of the Total Dynamic Connectedness (TCI) between the GPRD and the KCCAK indicates comparable magnitudes, although with minor initial discrepancies. The short-term connectedness of GPRD and KCCAK decreases from its peak of approximately 10% to approximately 1%. Conversely, long-term connectedness varies between approximately 32% and 2% from May 2022 onwards. The long-term connectedness between GPRD and SAXCEA revealed variable patterns, peaking at around 18% at the beginning of the sample period and rapidly reducing to around 1% within two months. The analysis of the connectedness between GPRD and the SPG) identifies intense fluctuations in both TCI and long-term connectedness. After an initial increase and decrease, these patterns rebound and experience another increase. This research provides significant insights into the complex dynamics of geopolitical conflicts and carbon markets, particularly the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on carbon market behavior.