Dynamic Risk Profiling Using Serial Tumor Biomarkers for Personalized Outcome Prediction.

Accurate prediction of long-term outcomes remains a challenge in the care of cancer patients. Due to the difficulty of serial tumor sampling, previous prediction tools have focused on pretreatment factors. However, emerging non-invasive diagnostics have increased opportunities for serial tumor assessments. We describe the Continuous Individualized Risk Index (CIRI), a method to dynamically determine outcome probabilities for individual patients utilizing risk predictors acquired over time. Similar to "win probability" models in other fields, CIRI provides a real-time probability by integrating risk assessments throughout a patient's course. Applying CIRI to patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma, we demonstrate improved outcome prediction compared to conventional risk models. We demonstrate CIRI's broader utility in analogous models of chronic lymphocytic leukemia and breast adenocarcinoma and perform a proof-of-concept analysis demonstrating how CIRI could be used to develop predictive biomarkers for therapy selection. We envision that dynamic risk assessment will facilitate personalized medicine and enable innovative therapeutic paradigms.

Defining a Cancer Dependency Map.

Most human epithelial tumors harbor numerous alterations, making it difficult to predict which genes are required for tumor survival. To systematically identify cancer dependencies, we analyzed 501 genome-scale loss-of-function screens performed in diverse human cancer cell lines. We developed DEMETER, an analytical framework that segregates on- from off-target effects of RNAi. 769 genes were differentially required in subsets of these cell lines at a threshold of six SDs from the mean. We found predictive models for 426 dependencies (55%) by nonlinear regression modeling considering 66,646 molecular features. Many dependencies fall into a limited number of classes, and unexpectedly, in 82% of models, the top biomarkers were expression based. We demonstrated the basis behind one such predictive model linking hypermethylation of the UBB ubiquitin gene to a dependency on UBC. Together, these observations provide a foundation for a cancer dependency map that facilitates the prioritization of therapeutic targets.

Brain representations of affective valence and intensity in sustained pleasure and pain.

Pleasure and pain are two fundamental, intertwined aspects of human emotions. Pleasurable sensations can reduce subjective feelings of pain and vice versa, and we often perceive the termination of pain as pleasant and the absence of pleasure as unpleasant. This implies the existence of brain systems that integrate them into modality-general representations of affective experiences. Here, we examined representations of affective valence and intensity in an functional MRI (fMRI) study (n = 58) of sustained pleasure and pain. We found that the distinct subpopulations of voxels within the ventromedial and lateral prefrontal cortices, the orbitofrontal cortex, the anterior insula, and the amygdala were involved in decoding affective valence versus intensity. Affective valence and intensity predictive models showed significant decoding performance in an independent test dataset (n = 62). These models were differentially connected to distinct large-scale brain networks-the intensity model to the ventral attention network and the valence model to the limbic and default mode networks. Overall, this study identified the brain representations of affective valence and intensity across pleasure and pain, promoting a systems-level understanding of human affective experiences.

Positive effects of public breeding on US rice yields under future climate scenarios.

In this study, we model and predict rice yields by integrating molecular marker variation, varietal productivity, and climate, focusing on the Southern U.S. rice-growing region. This region spans the states of Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi, and Missouri and accounts for 85% of total U.S. rice production. By digitizing and combining four decades of county-level variety acreage data (1970 to 2015) with varietal information from genotyping-by-sequencing data, we estimate annual historical county-level allele frequencies. These allele frequencies are used together with county-level weather and yield data to develop ten machine learning models for yield prediction. A two-layer meta-learner ensemble model that combines all ten methods is externally evaluated against observations from historical Uniform Regional Rice Nursery trials (1980 to 2018) conducted in the same states. Finally, the ensemble model is used with forecasted weather from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project across the 110 rice-growing counties to predict production in the coming decades for Composite Variety Groups assembled based on year of release, breeding program, and several breeding trends. Results indicate positive effects over time of public breeding on rice resilience to future climates, and potential reasons are discussed.

PRIEST: predicting viral mutations with immune escape capability of SARS-CoV-2 using temporal evolutionary information.

The dynamic evolution of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 virus is primarily driven by mutations in its genetic sequence, culminating in the emergence of variants with increased capability to evade host immune responses. Accurate prediction of such mutations is fundamental in mitigating pandemic spread and developing effective control measures. This study introduces a robust and interpretable deep-learning approach called PRIEST. This innovative model leverages time-series viral sequences to foresee potential viral mutations. Our comprehensive experimental evaluations underscore PRIEST's proficiency in accurately predicting immune-evading mutations. Our work represents a substantial step in utilizing deep-learning methodologies for anticipatory viral mutation analysis and pandemic response.

Cross-species predictive modeling reveals conserved drought responses between maize and sorghum.

Drought tolerance is a highly complex trait controlled by numerous interconnected pathways with substantial variation within and across plant species. This complexity makes it difficult to distill individual genetic loci underlying tolerance, and to identify core or conserved drought-responsive pathways. Here, we collected drought physiology and gene expression datasets across diverse genotypes of the C4 cereals sorghum and maize and searched for signatures defining water-deficit responses. Differential gene expression identified few overlapping drought-associated genes across sorghum genotypes, but using a predictive modeling approach, we found a shared core drought response across development, genotype, and stress severity. Our model had similar robustness when applied to datasets in maize, reflecting a conserved drought response between sorghum and maize. The top predictors are enriched in functions associated with various abiotic stress-responsive pathways as well as core cellular functions. These conserved drought response genes were less likely to contain deleterious mutations than other gene sets, suggesting that core drought-responsive genes are under evolutionary and functional constraints. Our findings support a broad evolutionary conservation of drought responses in C4 grasses regardless of innate stress tolerance, which could have important implications for developing climate resilient cereals.

Pre-acquired Functional Connectivity Predicts Choice Inconsistency.

Economic choice theories usually assume that humans maximize utility in their choices. However, studies have shown that humans make inconsistent choices, leading to suboptimal behavior, even without context-dependent manipulations. Previous studies showed that activation in value and motor networks are associated with inconsistent choices at the moment of choice. Here, we investigated if the neural predispositions, measured before a choice task, can predict choice inconsistency in a later risky choice task. Using functional connectivity (FC) measures from resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rsfMRI), derived before any choice was made, we aimed to predict subjects' inconsistency levels in a later-performed choice task. We hypothesized that rsfMRI FC measures extracted from value and motor brain areas would predict inconsistency. Forty subjects (21 females) completed a rsfMRI scan before performing a risky choice task. We compared models that were trained on FC that included only hypothesized value and motor regions with models trained on whole-brain FC. We found that both model types significantly predicted inconsistency levels. Moreover, even the whole-brain models relied mostly on FC between value and motor areas. For external validation, we used a neural network pretrained on FC matrices of 37,000 subjects and fine-tuned it on our data and again showed significant predictions. Together, this shows that the tendency for choice inconsistency is predicted by predispositions of the nervous system and that synchrony between the motor and value networks plays a crucial role in this tendency.

Neural processing of speech comprehension in noise predicts individual age using fNIRS-based brain-behavior models.

Speech comprehension in noise depends on complex interactions between peripheral sensory and central cognitive systems. Despite having normal peripheral hearing, older adults show difficulties in speech comprehension. It remains unclear whether the brain's neural responses could indicate aging. The current study examined whether individual brain activation during speech perception in different listening environments could predict age. We applied functional near-infrared spectroscopy to 93 normal-hearing human adults (20 to 70 years old) during a sentence listening task, which contained a quiet condition and 4 different signal-to-noise ratios (SNR = 10, 5, 0, -5 dB) noisy conditions. A data-driven approach, the region-based brain-age predictive modeling was adopted. We observed a significant behavioral decrease with age under the 4 noisy conditions, but not under the quiet condition. Brain activations in SNR = 10 dB listening condition could successfully predict individual's age. Moreover, we found that the bilateral visual sensory cortex, left dorsal speech pathway, left cerebellum, right temporal-parietal junction area, right homolog Wernicke's area, and right middle temporal gyrus contributed most to prediction performance. These results demonstrate that the activations of regions about sensory-motor mapping of sound, especially in noisy conditions, could be sensitive measures for age prediction than external behavior measures.

Finger motor representation supports the autonomy in arithmetic: neuroimaging evidence from abacus training.

Researches have reported the close association between fingers and arithmetic. However, it remains unclear whether and how finger training can benefit arithmetic. To address this issue, we used the abacus-based mental calculation (AMC), which combines finger training and mental arithmetic learning, to explore the neural correlates underlying finger-related arithmetic training. A total of 147 Chinese children (75 M/72 F, mean age, 6.89 ± 0.46) were recruited and randomly assigned into AMC and control groups at primary school entry. The AMC group received 5 years of AMC training, and arithmetic abilities and resting-state functional magnetic resonance images data were collected from both groups at year 1/3/5. The connectome-based predictive modeling was used to find the arithmetic-related networks of each group. Compared to controls, the AMC's positively arithmetic-related network was less located in the control module, and the inter-module connections between somatomotor-default and somatomotor-control modules shifted to somatomotor-visual and somatomotor-dorsal attention modules. Furthermore, the positive network of the AMC group exhibited a segregated connectivity pattern, with more intra-module connections than the control group. Overall, our results suggested that finger motor representation with motor module involvement facilitated arithmetic-related network segregation, reflecting increased autonomy of AMC, thus reducing the dependency of arithmetic on higher-order cognitive functions.

Plasma Metabolomics Reveals Distinct Biological and Diagnostic Signatures for Melioidosis.

Rationale: The global burden of sepsis is greatest in low-resource settings. Melioidosis, infection with the gram-negative bacterium Burkholderia pseudomallei, is a frequent cause of fatal sepsis in endemic tropical regions such as Southeast Asia. Objectives: To investigate whether plasma metabolomics would identify biological pathways specific to melioidosis and yield clinically meaningful biomarkers. Methods: Using a comprehensive approach, differential enrichment of plasma metabolites and pathways was systematically evaluated in individuals selected from a prospective cohort of patients hospitalized in rural Thailand with infection. Statistical and bioinformatics methods were used to distinguish metabolomic features and processes specific to patients with melioidosis and between fatal and nonfatal cases. Measurements and Main Results: Metabolomic profiling and pathway enrichment analysis of plasma samples from patients with melioidosis (n = 175) and nonmelioidosis infections (n = 75) revealed a distinct immuno-metabolic state among patients with melioidosis, as suggested by excessive tryptophan catabolism in the kynurenine pathway and significantly increased levels of sphingomyelins and ceramide species. We derived a 12-metabolite classifier to distinguish melioidosis from other infections, yielding an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.87 in a second validation set of patients. Melioidosis nonsurvivors (n = 94) had a significantly disturbed metabolome compared with survivors (n = 81), with increased leucine, isoleucine, and valine metabolism, and elevated circulating free fatty acids and acylcarnitines. A limited eight-metabolite panel showed promise as an early prognosticator of mortality in melioidosis. Conclusions: Melioidosis induces a distinct metabolomic state that can be examined to distinguish underlying pathophysiological mechanisms associated with death. A 12-metabolite signature accurately differentiates melioidosis from other infections and may have diagnostic applications.

Analysis of biodiversity data suggests that mammal species are hidden in predictable places.

SignificanceOnly an estimated 1 to 10% of Earth's species have been formally described. This discrepancy between the number of species with a formal taxonomic description and actual number of species (i.e., the Linnean shortfall) hampers research across the biological sciences. To explore whether the Linnean shortfall results from poor taxonomic practice or not enough taxonomic effort, we applied machine-learning techniques to build a predictive model to identify named species that are likely to contain hidden diversity. Results indicate that small-bodied species with large, climatically variable ranges are most likely to contain hidden species. These attributes generally match those identified in the taxonomic literature, indicating that the Linnean shortfall is caused by societal underinvestment in taxonomy rather than poor taxonomic practice.

An Online Nanoinformatics Platform Empowering Computational Modeling of Nanomaterials by Nanostructure Annotations and Machine Learning Toolkits.

Modern nanotechnology has generated numerous datasets from in vitro and in vivo studies on nanomaterials, with some available on nanoinformatics portals. However, these existing databases lack the digital data and tools suitable for machine learning studies. Here, we report a nanoinformatics platform that accurately annotates nanostructures into machine-readable data files and provides modeling toolkits. This platform, accessible to the public at https://vinas-toolbox.com/, has annotated nanostructures of 14 material types. The associated nanodescriptor data and assay test results are appropriate for modeling purposes. The modeling toolkits enable data standardization, data visualization, and machine learning model development to predict properties and bioactivities of new nanomaterials. Moreover, a library of virtual nanostructures with their predicted properties and bioactivities is available, directing the synthesis of new nanomaterials. This platform provides a data-driven computational modeling platform for the nanoscience community, significantly aiding in the development of safe and effective nanomaterials.

Exploring combinations of dimensionality reduction, transfer learning, and regularization methods for predicting binary phenotypes with transcriptomic data.

BACKGROUND: Numerous transcriptomic-based models have been developed to predict or understand the fundamental mechanisms driving biological phenotypes. However, few models have successfully transitioned into clinical practice due to challenges associated with generalizability and interpretability. To address these issues, researchers have turned to dimensionality reduction methods and have begun implementing transfer learning approaches. METHODS: In this study, we aimed to determine the optimal combination of dimensionality reduction and regularization methods for predictive modeling. We applied seven dimensionality reduction methods to various datasets, including two supervised methods (linear optimal low-rank projection and low-rank canonical correlation analysis), two unsupervised methods [principal component analysis and consensus independent component analysis (c-ICA)], and three methods [autoencoder (AE), adversarial variational autoencoder, and c-ICA] within a transfer learning framework, trained on > 140,000 transcriptomic profiles. To assess the performance of the different combinations, we used a cross-validation setup encapsulated within a permutation testing framework, analyzing 30 different transcriptomic datasets with binary phenotypes. Furthermore, we included datasets with small sample sizes and phenotypes of varying degrees of predictability, and we employed independent datasets for validation. RESULTS: Our findings revealed that regularized models without dimensionality reduction achieved the highest predictive performance, challenging the necessity of dimensionality reduction when the primary goal is to achieve optimal predictive performance. However, models using AE and c-ICA with transfer learning for dimensionality reduction showed comparable performance, with enhanced interpretability and robustness of predictors, compared to models using non-dimensionality-reduced data. CONCLUSION: These findings offer valuable insights into the optimal combination of strategies for enhancing the predictive performance, interpretability, and generalizability of transcriptomic-based models.

Development of Predictive Models to Inform a Novel Risk Categorization Framework for Antibiotic Resistance in Escherichia coli-Caused Uncomplicated Urinary Tract Infection.

BACKGROUND: In clinical practice, challenges in identifying patients with uncomplicated urinary tract infections (uUTIs) at risk of antibiotic nonsusceptibility may lead to inappropriate prescribing and contribute to antibiotic resistance. We developed predictive models to quantify risk of nonsusceptibility to 4 commonly prescribed antibiotic classes for uUTI, identify predictors of nonsusceptibility to each class, and construct a corresponding risk categorization framework for nonsusceptibility. METHODS: Eligible females aged ≥12 years with Escherichia coli-caused uUTI were identified from Optum's de-identified Electronic Health Record dataset (1 October 2015-29 February 2020). Four predictive models were developed to predict nonsusceptibility to each antibiotic class and a risk categorization framework was developed to classify patients' isolates as low, moderate, and high risk of nonsusceptibility to each antibiotic class. RESULTS: Predictive models were developed among 87 487 patients. Key predictors of having a nonsusceptible isolate to ≥3 antibiotic classes included number of previous UTI episodes, prior ß-lactam nonsusceptibility, prior fluoroquinolone treatment, Census Bureau region, and race. The risk categorization framework classified 8.1%, 14.4%, 17.4%, and 6.3% of patients as having isolates at high risk of nonsusceptibility to nitrofurantoin, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, ß-lactams, and fluoroquinolones, respectively. Across classes, the proportion of patients categorized as having high-risk isolates was 3- to 12-fold higher among patients with nonsusceptible isolates versus susceptible isolates. CONCLUSIONS: Our predictive models highlight factors that increase risk of nonsusceptibility to antibiotics for uUTIs, while the risk categorization framework contextualizes risk of nonsusceptibility to these treatments. Our findings provide valuable insight to clinicians treating uUTIs and may help inform empiric prescribing in this population.

The enhanced connectivity between the frontoparietal, somatomotor network and thalamus as the most significant network changes of chronic low back pain.

The prolonged duration of chronic low back pain (cLBP) inevitably leads to changes in the cognitive, attentional, sensory and emotional processing brain regions. Currently, it remains unclear how these alterations are manifested in the interplay between brain functional and structural networks. This study aimed to predict the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) in cLBP patients using multimodal brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data and identified the most significant features within the multimodal networks to aid in distinguishing patients from healthy controls (HCs). We constructed dynamic functional connectivity (dFC) and structural connectivity (SC) networks for all participants (n = 112) and employed the Connectome-based Predictive Modeling (CPM) approach to predict ODI scores, utilizing various feature selection thresholds to identify the most significant network change features in dFC and SC outcomes. Subsequently, we utilized these significant features for optimal classifier selection and the integration of multimodal features. The results revealed enhanced connectivity among the frontoparietal network (FPN), somatomotor network (SMN) and thalamus in cLBP patients compared to HCs. The thalamus transmits pain-related sensations and emotions to the cortical areas through the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC) and primary somatosensory cortex (SI), leading to alterations in whole-brain network functionality and structure. Regarding the model selection for the classifier, we found that Support Vector Machine (SVM) best fit these significant network features. The combined model based on dFC and SC features significantly improved classification performance between cLBP patients and HCs (AUC=0.9772). Finally, the results from an external validation set support our hypotheses and provide insights into the potential applicability of the model in real-world scenarios. Our discovery of enhanced connectivity between the thalamus and both the dlPFC (FPN) and SI (SMN) provides a valuable supplement to prior research on cLBP.

A triple hormone receptor ER, AR, and VDR signature is a robust prognosis predictor in breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Despite evidence indicating the dominance of cell-of-origin signatures in molecular tumor patterns, translating these genome-wide patterns into actionable insights has been challenging. This study introduces breast cancer cell-of-origin signatures that offer significant prognostic value across all breast cancer subtypes and various clinical cohorts, compared to previously developed genomic signatures. METHODS: We previously reported that triple hormone receptor (THR) co-expression patterns of androgen (AR), estrogen (ER), and vitamin D (VDR) receptors are maintained at the protein level in human breast cancers. Here, we developed corresponding mRNA signatures (THR-50 and THR-70) based on these patterns to categorize breast tumors by their THR expression levels. The THR mRNA signatures were evaluated across 56 breast cancer datasets (5040 patients) using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, Cox proportional hazard regression, and unsupervised clustering. RESULTS: The THR signatures effectively predict both overall and progression-free survival across all evaluated datasets, independent of subtype, grade, or treatment status, suggesting improvement over existing prognostic signatures. Furthermore, they delineate three distinct ER-positive breast cancer subtypes with significant survival in differences-expanding on the conventional two subtypes. Additionally, coupling THR-70 with an immune signature identifies a predominantly ER-negative breast cancer subgroup with a highly favorable prognosis, comparable to ER-positive cases, as well as an ER-negative subgroup with notably poor outcome, characterized by a 15-fold shorter survival. CONCLUSIONS: The THR cell-of-origin signature introduces a novel dimension to breast cancer biology, potentially serving as a robust foundation for integrating additional prognostic biomarkers. These signatures offer utility as a prognostic index for stratifying existing breast cancer subtypes and for de novo classification of breast cancer cases. Moreover, THR signatures may also hold promise in predicting hormone treatment responses targeting AR and/or VDR.

A critique and examination of the polysocial risk score approach: predicting cognition in the Health and Retirement Study.

Polysocial risk scores were recently proposed as a strategy for improving the clinical relevance of knowledge about social determinants of health. Our objective in this study was to assess whether the polysocial risk score model improves prediction of cognition and all-cause mortality in middle-aged and older adults beyond simpler models including a smaller set of key social determinants of health. We used a sample of 13 773 individuals aged ≥50 years at baseline from the 2006-2018 waves of the Health and Retirement Study, a US population-based longitudinal cohort study. Four linear mixed models were compared: 2 simple models including a priori-selected covariates and 2 polysocial risk score models which used least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regularization to select covariates among 9 or 21 candidate social predictors. All models included age. Predictive accuracy was assessed via R2 and root mean-squared prediction error (RMSPE) using training/test split validation and cross-validation. For predicting cognition, the simple model including age, race, sex, and education had an R2 value of 0.31 and an RMSPE of 0.880. Compared with this, the most complex polysocial risk score selected 12 predictors (R2 = 0.35 and RMSPE = 0.858; 2.2% improvement). For all-cause mortality, the simple model including age, race, sex, and education had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.747, while the most complex polysocial risk score did not demonstrate improved performance (AUROC = 0.745). Models built on a smaller set of key social determinants performed comparably to models built on a more complex set of social "risk factors."

Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Opioid-Related Fatal Overdoses: Towards Best Practices for Modeling and Evaluation.

To inform public health interventions, researchers have developed models to forecast opioid-related overdose mortality. These efforts often have limited overlap in the models and datasets employed, presenting challenges to assessing progress in this field. Furthermore, common error-based performance metrics, such as root mean squared error (RMSE), cannot directly assess a key modeling purpose: the identification of priority areas for interventions. We recommend a new intervention-aware performance metric, Percentage of Best Possible Reach (%BPR). We compare metrics for many published models across two distinct geographic settings, Cook County, Illinois and Massachusetts, assuming the budget to intervene in 100 census tracts out of 1000s in each setting. The top-performing models based on RMSE recommend areas that do not always reach the most possible overdose events. In Massachusetts, the top models preferred by %BPR could have reached 18 additional fatal overdoses per year in 2020-2021 compared to models favored by RMSE. In Cook County, the different metrics select similar top-performing models, yet other models with similar RMSE can have significant variation in %BPR. We further find that simple models often perform as well as recently published ones. We release open code and data for others to build upon.

Developing machine learning models to predict primary graft dysfunction after lung transplantation.

Primary graft dysfunction (PGD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the first 30 days after lung transplantation. Risk factors for the development of PGD include donor and recipient characteristics, but how multiple variables interact to impact the development of PGD and how clinicians should consider these in making decisions about donor acceptance remain unclear. This was a single-center retrospective cohort study to develop and evaluate machine learning pipelines to predict the development of PGD grade 3 within the first 72 hours of transplantation using donor and recipient variables that are known at the time of donor offer acceptance. Among 576 bilateral lung recipients, 173 (30%) developed PGD grade 3. The cohort underwent a 75% to 25% train-test split, and lasso regression was used to identify 11 variables for model development. A K-nearest neighbor's model showing the best calibration and performance with relatively small confidence intervals was selected as the final predictive model with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.65. Machine learning models can predict the risk for development of PGD grade 3 based on data available at the time of donor offer acceptance. This may improve donor-recipient matching and donor utilization in the future.

A nomogram to predict the risk of proliferative lupus nephritis in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus involving the kidneys.

Proliferative lupus nephritis (PLN) is a serious organ-threatening manifestation of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) that is associated with high mortality and renal failure. Here, we analyzed data from 1287 SLE patients with renal manifestations, including 780 of which were confirmed as proliferative or non-proliferative LN patients by renal biopsy, divided into a training cohort (547 patients) and a validation cohort (233 patients). By applying a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression approach combined with multivariate logistic regression analysis to build a nomogram for prediction of PLN that was then assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and clinical decision curves (DCA) in both the training and validation cohorts. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the model in the training cohort was 0.921 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.895-0.946), the AUC of internal validation in the training cohort was 0.909 and the AUC of external validation was 0.848 (95% CI: 0.796-0.900). The nomogram showed good performance as evaluated using calibration and DCA curves. Taken together, our results indicate that our nomogram that comprises 12 significantly relevant variables could be clinically valuable to prognosticate on the risk of PLN in SLE, so as to improve patient prognoses.