Falls prechemotherapy and toxicity-related hospitalization during adjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer in older women: Results from the prospective multicenter HOPE trial.

BACKGROUND: Older women with breast cancer frequently experience toxicity-related hospitalizations during adjuvant chemotherapy. Although the geriatric assessment can identify those at risk, its use in clinic remains limited. One simple, low-cost marker of vulnerability in older persons is fall history. Here, the authors examined whether falls prechemotherapy can identify older women at risk for toxicity-related hospitalization during adjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer. METHODS: In a prospective study of women >65 years old with stage I-III breast cancer treated with adjuvant chemotherapy, the authors assessed baseline falls in the past 6 months as a categorical variable: no fall, one fall, and more than one fall. The primary end point was incident hospitalization during chemotherapy attributable to toxicity. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the association between falls and toxicity-related hospitalization, adjusting for sociodemographic, disease, and geriatric covariates. RESULTS: Of the 497 participants, 60 (12.1%) reported falling before chemotherapy, and 114 (22.9%) had one or more toxicity-related hospitalizations. After adjusting for sociodemographic, disease, and geriatric characteristics, women who fell more than once within 6 months before chemotherapy had greater odds of being hospitalized from toxicity during chemotherapy compared to women who did not fall (50.0% vs. 20.8% experienced toxicity-related hospitalization, odds ratio, 4.38; 95% confidence interval, 1.66-11.54, p = .003). CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of older women with early breast cancer, women who experienced more than one fall before chemotherapy had an over 4-fold increased risk of toxicity-related hospitalization during chemotherapy, independent of sociodemographic, disease, and geriatric factors.

Geriatric assessment with management for older patients with cancer receiving radiotherapy: a cluster-randomised controlled pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Geriatric assessment and management (GAM) improve outcomes in older patients with cancer treated with surgery or chemotherapy. It is unclear whether GAM may provide better function and quality of life (QoL), or be cost-effective, in a radiotherapy (RT) setting. METHODS: In this Norwegian cluster-randomised controlled pilot study, we assessed the impact of a GAM intervention involving specialist and primary health services. It was initiated in-hospital at the start of RT by assessing somatic and mental health, function, and social situation, followed by individually adapted management plans and systematic follow-up in the municipalities until 8 weeks after the end of RT, managed by municipal nurses as patients' care coordinators. Thirty-two municipal/city districts were 1:1 randomised to intervention or conventional care. Patients with cancer ≥ 65 years, referred for RT, were enrolled irrespective of cancer type, treatment intent, and frailty status, and followed the allocation of their residential district. The primary outcome was physical function measured by the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire-C30 (QLQ-C30). Secondary outcomes were overall quality of life (QoL), physical performance, use and costs of health services. Analyses followed the intention-to-treat principle. Study registration at ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT03881137. RESULTS: We included 178 patients, 89 in each group with comparable age (mean 74.1), sex (female 38.2%), and Edmonton Frail Scale scores (mean 3.4 [scale 0-17], scores 0-3 [fit] in 57%). More intervention patients received curative RT (76.4 vs 61.8%), had higher irradiation doses (mean 54.1 vs 45.5 Gy), and longer lasting RT (mean 4.4 vs 3.6 weeks). The primary outcome was completed by 91% (intervention) vs 88% (control) of patients. No significant differences between groups on predefined outcomes were observed. GAM costs represented 3% of health service costs for the intervention group during the study period. CONCLUSIONS: In this heterogeneous cohort of older patients receiving RT, the majority was fit. We found no impact of the intervention on patient-centred outcomes or the cost of health services. Targeting a more homogeneous group of only pre-frail and frail patients is strongly recommended in future studies needed to clarify the role and organisation of GAM in RT settings.

Validation of the Health Assessment Tool (HAT) based on four aging cohorts from the Swedish National study on Aging and Care.

BACKGROUND: As global aging accelerates, routinely assessing the functional status and morbidity burden of older patients becomes paramount. The aim of this study is to assess the validity of the comprehensive clinical and functional Health Assessment Tool (HAT) based on four cohorts of older adults (60 + years) from the Swedish National study on Aging and Care (SNAC) spanning urban, suburban, and rural areas. METHODS: The HAT integrates five health indicators (gait speed, global cognition, number of chronic diseases, and basic and instrumental activities of daily living), providing an individual-level score between 0 and 10. The tool was constructed using nominal response models, first separately for each cohort and then in a harmonized dataset. Outcomes included all-cause mortality over a maximum follow-up of 16 years and unplanned hospital admissions over a maximum of 3 years of follow-up. The predictive capacity was assessed through the area under the curve (AUC) using logistic regressions. For time to death, Cox regressions were performed, and Harrell's C-indices were reported. Results from the four cohorts were pooled using individual participant data meta-analysis and compared with those from the harmonized dataset. RESULTS: The HAT demonstrated high predictive capacity across all cohorts as well as in the harmonized dataset. In the harmonized dataset, the AUC was 0.84 (95% CI 0.81-0.87) for 1-year mortality, 0.81 (95% CI 0.80-0.83) for 3-year mortality, 0.80 (95% CI 0.79-0.82) for 5-year mortality, 0.69 (95% CI 0.67-0.70) for 1-year unplanned admissions, and 0.69 (95% CI 0.68-0.70) for 3-year unplanned admissions. The Harrell's C for time-to-death throughout 16 years of follow-up was 0.75 (95% CI 0.74-0.75). CONCLUSIONS: The HAT is a highly predictive, clinically intuitive, and externally valid instrument with potential for better addressing older adults' health needs and optimizing risk stratification at the population level.

Geriatric assessment predicts nonfatal toxicities and survival for intensively treated older adults with AML.

Given that there are only a few prospective studies with conflicting results, we investigated the prognostic value of multiparameter geriatric assessment (GA) domains on tolerance and outcomes after intensive chemotherapy in older adults with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). In all, 105 newly diagnosed patients with AML who were older than age 60 years and who received intensive chemotherapy consisting of cytarabine and idarubicin were enrolled prospectively. Pretreatment GA included evaluations for social and nutritional support, cognition, depression, distress, and physical function. The median age was 64 years (range, 60-75 years), and 93% had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance score <2. Between 32.4% and 69.5% of patients met the criteria for impairment for each domain of GA. Physical impairment by the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) and cognitive dysfunction by the Mini-Mental State Examination in the Korean version of the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease (CERAD) Assessment Packet (MMSE-KC) were significantly associated with nonfatal toxicities, including grade 3 to 4 infections (SPPB, P = .024; MMSE-KC, P = .044), acute renal failure (SPPB, P = .013), and/or prolonged hospitalization (≥40 days) during induction chemotherapy (MMSE-KC, P = .005). Reduced physical function by SPPB and depressive symptoms by the Korean version of the short form of geriatric depression scales (SGDS-K) were significantly associated with inferior survival (SPPB, P = .027; SGDS-K, P = .048). Gait speed and sit-and-stand speed were the most powerful measurements for predicting survival outcomes. Notably, the addition of SPPB and SGDS-K, gait speed and SGDS-K, or sit-and-stand speed and SGDS-K significantly improved the power of existing survival prediction models. In conclusion, GA improved risk stratification for treatment decisions and may inform interventions to improve outcomes for older adults with AML. This study was registered at the Clinical Research Information Service as #KCT0002172.

Nutritional status as independent prognostic factor of outcome and mortality until five years after hip fracture: a comprehensive prospective study.

We determined the prognostic value of nutritional status for outcome after hip fracture. Nutritional status was a strong independent prognostic factor for clinical outcome and 5-year mortality. Physical function showed incomplete recovery. Elderly care should focus on prevention already before hip fracture. PURPOSE: To determine the prognostic value of nutritional status in hip fracture patients for multiple clinical and functional outcomes over 6 months, and for new fractures and survival over 5 years post-fracture. METHODS: We included 152 well-characterized subjects (age 55+ years) with a hip fracture from a previously published randomized controlled trial. Nutritional status was appraised using the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA). Multivariable linear, logistic and Cox regression models were fitted, adjusted for age, sex, ASA score, group and additional prognostic covariates identified in backward regression models. RESULTS: At baseline, impaired nutritional status was significantly associated with physical disability, depression, impaired cognition and lower quality of life. Prospective analyses showed that impaired baseline nutritional status was an independent prognostic factor for postoperative complications (OR 2.00, 95%CI 1.01-3.98, p = 0.047), discharge location from hospital (home vs. rehabilitation clinic, OR 0.41, 95%CI 0.18-0.98, p = 0.044), hospital readmission (OR 4.59, 95%CI 1.70-12.4, p = 0.003) and total length of hospital stay (HR of being discharged: 0.63, 96%CI 0.44-0.89, p = 0.008), as well as for 5-year mortality (HR 3.94, 95%CI 1.53-10.2, p = 0.005), but not for risk of new fractures (5y-HR 0.87, 95%CI 0.34-2.24, p = 0.769). Curves of physical disability over time showed that the three nutritional status categories followed almost parallel trajectories from baseline until 6 months after hip fracture, without complete recovery and even with further deterioration in malnourished subjects from 3 to 6 months post-fracture. CONCLUSION: As baselline nutritional status is a strong independent prognostic factor for clinical outcome after hip fracture, affecting even five-year survival, elderly health care should focus on prevention and identification of at-risk individuals already before hip fracture.

Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index Combined with Calf Circumference Can be a Good Predictor of Prognosis in Patients Undergoing Surgery for Gastric or Colorectal Cancer.

OBJECTIVES: To explore the effect of combined hematological and physical measurement indicators on the prognosis of patients undergoing surgery for gastric or colorectal cancer and to screen for the best prognostic indicators. INTRODUCTION: Gastric and colorectal cancer is a widespread health concern worldwide and one of the major contributors to cancer-related death. The hematological and physical measurement indicators have been shown to associate with the prognosis of patients undergoing surgery for gastric or colorectal cancer, respectively, but it is still unclear whether the combination of the two can reflect the prognosis more effectively. METHODS: Thirteen hematological indicators and 5 physical measurement indicators were selected in this study, and the most promising ones were screened using LASSO regression. Then, the best prognostic indicators were selected by time-ROC curves. Survival curves were constructed using the Kaplan-Meier method, and the effects of hematological and physical measurement indicators on the prognosis of patients undergoing surgery for gastric or colorectal cancers were evaluated by Cox proportional risk regression analysis. In addition, the relationship between hematological and physical measurement indicators on secondary outcomes, including length of stay, hospitalization costs, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and patients' subjective global assessment scores (PGSGA), was explored. RESULTS: After initial screening, among the hematological indicators, the geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) showed the highest mean area under the curve (AUC) values. Among body measures, calf circumference (CC) showed the highest mean AUC value. Further analyses showed that the combination of combined nutritional prognostic index (GNRI) and calf circumference (CC) (GNRI-CC) had the best performance in predicting the prognosis of patients undergoing surgery for gastric or colorectal cancers. Low GNRI, low CC, and low GNRI-low CC increased the risk of death by 44%, 48%, and 104%, respectively. Sensitivity analyses showed the same trend. In addition, low GNRI-low CC increased the risk of malnutrition by 17%. CONCLUSION: This study emphasizes that a combination of blood measures and body measures is essential to accurately assess the prognosis of patients undergoing surgery for gastric or colorectal cancers. The GNRI-CC is a good prognostic indicator and can also assess the risk of possible malnutrition.

Preoperative Delirium Risk Screening in Patients Undergoing a Cardiac Surgery: Results from the Prospective Observational FINDERI Study.

OBJECTIVE: Postoperative delirium (POD) is a common complication of cardiac surgery that is associated with higher morbidity, longer hospital stay, cognitive decline, and mortality. Preoperative assessments may help to identify patients´ POD risk. However, a standardized screening assessment for POD risk has not been established. DESIGN: Prospective observational FINd DElirium RIsk factors (FINDERI) study. PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged ≥50 years undergoing cardiac surgery. MEASUREMENTS: The primary aim was to analyze the predictive value of the Delirium Risk Screening Questionnaire (DRSQ) prior to cardiac surgery. Secondary aims are to investigate cognitive, frailty, and geriatric assessments, and to use data-driven machine learning (ML) in predicting POD. Predictive properties were assessed using receiver operating characteristics analysis and multivariate approaches (regularized LASSO regression and decision trees). RESULTS: We analyzed a data set of 504 patients (68.3 ± 8.2 years, 21.4% women) who underwent cardiac surgery. The incidence of POD was 21%. The preoperatively administered DRSQ showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.68 (95% CI 0.62, 0.73), and the predictive OR was 1.25 (95% CI 1.15, 1.35, p <0.001). Using a ML approach, a three-rule decision tree prediction model including DRSQ (score>7), Trail Making Test B (time>118), and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (score ≤ 22) was identified. The AUC of the three-rule decision tree on the training set was 0.69 (95% CI 0.63, 0.75) and 0.62 (95% CI 0.51, 0.73) on the validation set. CONCLUSION: Both the DRSQ and the three-rule decision tree might be helpful in predicting POD risk before cardiac surgery.

Preoperative geriatric assessment of urological patients: a narrative review.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The proportion of older people is increasing disproportionately. The age between 60 and 65 years is seen as the transition to 'old age'. Frailty is a risk factor for morbidity, mortality, and complications in the context of medical interventions or adverse effects of drug therapies. One of the core components of frailty, the age-related loss of muscle mass, is sarcopenia. Is there an influence of frailty, as well as sarcopenia and some other aspects, i.e. malnutrition, on the outcome in elderly urologic patients? RECENT FINDINGS: These phenomena of aging correlate with the incidence postoperative complication, infections, readmission rates or mortality. There are numerous studies on the value and informative value of the 5-item frailty index or the G8 questionnaire in older urological patients. SUMMARY: Geriatric assessment is becoming increasingly important in urological surgery. Simple instruments that are practicable in clinical routine are required in this clinical setting. Which method of preoperative assessment is chosen is secondary. It is important that the risk of geriatric syndromes is assessed prior to surgical interventions in order to determine the most suitable therapeutic approach for each patient.

Psychometric Properties of General Oral Health Assessment Index Across Ages: COSMIN Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVES: To systematically review the psychometric properties of the Geriatric Oral Health Assessment Index (GOHAI) across age groups using the COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement INstruments (COSMIN) methodology. METHODS: Data: English peer-reviewed articles reporting studies of the development, translation, or validation of GOHAI. SOURCES: PubMed, Web of Science, and EMBASE from Jan 1990 until December 31, 2023. Methodological evaluation: based on COSMIN methodology. The results are presented overall and for 4 age groups (≥60 years, all ages, <60 years, ≤45 years). Structural validity was summarized qualitatively. Internal consistency and reliability were synthesized via random-effects meta-analysis of T-transformed Cronbach α values, and Fisher's Z transformed correlation coefficients. Construct validity and responsiveness were assessed using effect sizes. RESULTS: Four hundred ninety-seven records were identified, 72 underwent full-text assessment, resulting in 60 included reports. Structural validity was inconsistent across all age groups and overall. Internal consistency was sufficient with overall α = 0.81, and high evidence quality. Test-retest reliability was consistently sufficient across age groups with overall r = 0.84. For construct validity 361 hypotheses were assessed (37.4% for convergent-, 62.6% for known-groups validity). The percentage of confirmed hypotheses in ≥60-years, all ages, <60-years and ≤45-years were 75.5%, 66.7%, 78.9%, and 88.9%, respectively. Responsiveness was not assessed in the <60-years and ≤45-years age groups, leading to indeterminate overall rating with very low evidence quality. CONCLUSIONS: This review affirms that GOHAI has sufficient psychometric properties as an oral health-related quality of life instrument in various age groups, but its responsiveness is scarcely researched and its utility for individual-level follow-up is limited. The measurement properties of oral health-related quality of life tools must be scrutinized in the changing demands of personalized and value-based dental care. (PROSPERO registration: CRD42022384132).

Assessing Frailty in Gastrointestinal Cancer: Two Diseases in One?

PURPOSEOF REVIEW: This review examines the challenges of treating gastrointestinal cancer in the aging population, focusing on the importance of frailty assessment. Emphasized are the rise in gastrointestinal cancer incidence in older adults, advances in frailty assessments for patients with gastrointestinal cancer, the development of novel frailty markers, and a summary of recent trials. RECENT FINDINGS: Increasing evidence suggests that the use of a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) to identify frail older adults and individualize cancer care leads to lower toxicity and improved quality of life outcomes. However, the adoption of a full CGA prior to chemotherapy initiation in older cancer patients remains low. Recently, new frailty screening tools have emerged, including assessments designed to specifically predict chemotherapy-related adverse events. Additionally, frailty biomarkers have been developed, such as blood tests like IL-6 and performance tracking through physical activity monitors. The relevance of nutrition and muscle mass is discussed. Highlights from recent trials suggest the feasibility of successfully identifying patients most at risk of serious adverse events. There have been promising developments in identifying novel frailty markers and methods to screen for frailty in the older adult population. Further prospective trials that focus on and address the needs of the geriatric population for early identification of frailty in cancer care, facilitating a more tailored treatment approach. Practicing oncologists should select a frailty assessment to implement into their routine practice and adjust treatment accordingly.

Epigenetic age acceleration and the risk of frailty, and persistent activities of daily living (ADL) disability.

BACKGROUND: Epigenetic ageing is among the most promising ageing biomarkers and may be a useful marker of physical function decline, beyond chronological age. This study investigated whether epigenetic age acceleration (AA) is associated with the change in frailty scores over 7 years and the 7-year risk of incident frailty and persistent Activities of Daily Living (ADL) disability among 560 Australians (50.7% females) aged ≥70 years. METHODS: Seven AA indices, including GrimAge, GrimAge2, FitAge and DunedinPACE, were estimated from baseline peripheral-blood DNA-methylation. Frailty was assessed using both the 67-item deficit-accumulation frailty index (FI) and Fried phenotype (Fried). Persistent ADL disability was defined as loss of ability to perform one or more basic ADLs for at least 6 months. Linear mixed models and Cox proportional-hazard regression models were used as appropriate. RESULTS: Accelerated GrimAge, GrimAge2, FitAge and DunedinPACE at baseline were associated with increasing FI scores per year (adjusted-Beta ranged from 0.0015 to 0.0021, P < 0.05), and accelerated GrimAge and GrimAge2 were associated with an increased risk of incident FI-defined frailty (adjusted-HRs 1.43 and 1.39, respectively, P < 0.05). The association between DunedinPACE and the change in FI scores was stronger in females (adjusted-Beta 0.0029, P 0.001 than in males (adjusted-Beta 0.0002, P 0.81). DunedinPACE, but not the other AA measures, was also associated with worsening Fried scores (adjusted-Beta 0.0175, P 0.04). No associations were observed with persistent ADL disability. CONCLUSION: Epigenetic AA in later life is associated with increasing frailty scores per year and the risk of incident FI-defined frailty.

How do primary care clinicians approach the management of frailty? A qualitative interview study.

BACKGROUND: Around 15% of adults aged over 65 live with moderate or severe frailty. Contractual requirements for management of frailty are minimal and neither incentivised nor reinforced. Previous research has shown frailty identification in primary care is ad hoc and opportunistic, but there has been little focus on the challenges of frailty management, particularly within the context of recent introduction of primary care networks and an expanding allied health professional workforce. AIM: Explore the views of primary care clinicians in England on the management of frailty. DESIGN AND SETTING: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with clinicians across England, including general practitioners (GPs), physician associates, nurse practitioners, paramedics and clinical pharmacists. Thematic analysis was facilitated through NVivo (Version 12). RESULTS: A total of 31 clinicians participated. Frailty management was viewed as complex and outside of clinical guidelines with medication optimisation highlighted as a key example. Senior clinicians, particularly experienced GPs, were more comfortable with managing risk. Relational care was important in prioritising patient wishes and autonomy, for instance to remain at home despite deteriorations in health. In settings where more formalised multidisciplinary frailty services had been established this was viewed as successful by clinicians involved. CONCLUSION: Primary care clinicians perceive frailty as best managed through trusted relationships with patients, and with support from experienced clinicians. New multidisciplinary working in primary care could enhance frailty services, but must keep continuity in mind. There is a lack of evidence or guidance for specific interventions or management approaches.

A systematic review of the psychometric properties of physical performance tests for sarcopenia in community-dwelling older adults.

BACKGROUND: This review provides an overview of the psychometric properties of the short physical performance battery (SPPB), timed up and go test (TUG), 4 m gait speed test (4 m GST) and the 400 m walk test (400 m WT) in community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: A systematic search was conducted in MEDLINE, CINAHL and EMBASE, resulting in the inclusion of 50 studies with data from in total 19,266 participants (mean age 63.2-84.3). Data were extracted and properties were given a sufficient or insufficient overall rating following the COSMIN guideline for systematic reviews of patient-reported outcome measures. Quality of evidence (QoE) was rated using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. RESULTS: The SPPB was evaluated in 12 studies, TUG in 30, 4 m GST in 12 and 400 m WT in 2. Reliability of the SPPB, TUG and 4 m GST was rated sufficient (moderate to good QoE). The measurement error of the SPPB was rated insufficient (low QoE). Criterion validity for the SPPB was insufficient in indicating sarcopenia (moderate QoE), while the TUG was sufficient and insufficient for determining mobility limitations (low QoE) and activities of daily living disability (low QoE), respectively. Construct validity of the SPPB, TUG, 4 m GST and 400 m WT was rated insufficient in many constructs (moderate to high QoE). Responsiveness was rated as insufficient for SPPB (high QoE) and TUG (very low QoE), while 4 m GST was rated as sufficient (high QoE). CONCLUSION: Overall, the psychometric quality of commonly used physical performance tests in community-dwelling older adults was generally rated insufficient, except for reliability. These tests are widely used in daily practice and recommended in guidelines; however, users should be cautious when drawing conclusions such as sarcopenia severity and change in physical performance due to limited psychometric quality of the recommended measurement instruments. There is a need for a disease-specific physical performance test for people with sarcopenia.This research received no specific grant from any funding agency and was registered a priori using the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) (CRD42022359725).

Predicting short- to medium-term care home admission risk in older adults: a systematic review of externally validated models.

INTRODUCTION: Predicting risk of care home admission could identify older adults for early intervention to support independent living but require external validation in a different dataset before clinical use. We systematically reviewed external validations of care home admission risk prediction models in older adults. METHODS: We searched Medline, Embase and Cochrane Library until 14 August 2023 for external validations of prediction models for care home admission risk in adults aged ≥65 years with up to 3 years of follow-up. We extracted and narratively synthesised data on study design, model characteristics, and model discrimination and calibration (accuracy of predictions). We assessed risk of bias and applicability using Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool. RESULTS: Five studies reporting validations of nine unique models were included. Model applicability was fair but risk of bias was mostly high due to not reporting model calibration. Morbidities were used as predictors in four models, most commonly neurological or psychiatric diseases. Physical function was also included in four models. For 1-year prediction, three of the six models had acceptable discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)/c statistic 0.70-0.79) and the remaining three had poor discrimination (AUC < 0.70). No model accounted for competing mortality risk. The only study examining model calibration (but ignoring competing mortality) concluded that it was excellent. CONCLUSIONS: The reporting of models was incomplete. Model discrimination was at best acceptable, and calibration was rarely examined (and ignored competing mortality risk when examined). There is a need to derive better models that account for competing mortality risk and report calibration as well as discrimination.

Introducing a machine learning algorithm for delirium prediction-the Supporting SURgery with GEriatric Co-Management and AI project (SURGE-Ahead).

INTRODUCTION: Post-operative delirium (POD) is a common complication in older patients, with an incidence of 14-56%. To implement preventative procedures, it is necessary to identify patients at risk for POD. In the present study, we aimed to develop a machine learning (ML) model for POD prediction in older patients, in close cooperation with the PAWEL (patient safety, cost-effectiveness and quality of life in elective surgery) project. METHODS: The model was trained on the PAWEL study's dataset of 878 patients (no intervention, age ≥ 70, 209 with POD). Presence of POD was determined by the Confusion Assessment Method and a chart review. We selected 15 features based on domain knowledge, ethical considerations and a recursive feature elimination. A logistic regression and a linear support vector machine (SVM) were trained, and evaluated using receiver operator characteristics (ROC). RESULTS: The selected features were American Society of Anesthesiologists score, multimorbidity, cut-to-suture time, estimated glomerular filtration rate, polypharmacy, use of cardio-pulmonary bypass, the Montreal cognitive assessment subscores 'memory', 'orientation' and 'verbal fluency', pre-existing dementia, clinical frailty scale, age, recent falls, post-operative isolation and pre-operative benzodiazepines. The linear SVM performed best, with an ROC area under the curve of 0.82 [95% CI 0.78-0.85] in the training set, 0.81 [95% CI 0.71-0.88] in the test set and 0.76 [95% CI 0.71-0.79] in a cross-centre validation. CONCLUSION: We present a clinically useful and explainable ML model for POD prediction. The model will be deployed in the Supporting SURgery with GEriatric Co-Management and AI project.

Development and validation of a frailty index for use in the osteoarthritis initiative.

BACKGROUND: The Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) evaluates the development and progression of osteoarthritis. Frailty captures the heterogeneity in aging. Use of this resource-intensive dataset to answer aging-related research questions could be enhanced by a frailty measure. OBJECTIVE: To: (i) develop a deficit accumulation frailty index (FI) for the OAI; (ii) examine its relationship with age and compare between sexes, (iii) validate the FI versus all-cause mortality and (iv) compare this association with mortality with a modified frailty phenotype. DESIGN: OAI cohort study. SETTING: North America. SUBJECTS: An FI was determined for 4,755/4,796 and 4,149/4,796 who had a valid FI and frailty phenotype. METHODS: Fifty-nine-variables were screened for inclusion. Multivariate Cox regression evaluated the impact of FI or phenotype on all-cause mortality at follow-up (up to 146 months), controlling for age and sex. RESULTS: Thirty-one items were included. FI scores (0.16 ± 0.09) were higher in older adults and among females (both, P < 0.001). By follow-up, 264 people had died (6.4%). Older age, being male, and greater FI were associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality (all, P < 0.001). The model including FI was a better fit than the model including the phenotype (AIC: 4,167 vs. 4,178) and was a better predictor of all-cause mortality than the phenotype with an area under receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.652 vs. 0.581. CONCLUSION: We developed an FI using the OAI and validated it in relation to all-cause mortality. The FI may be used to study aging on clinical, functional and structural aspects of osteoarthritis included in the OAI.

Dietary characteristics of community-dwelling older adults with poor appetite: a cross-sectional analysis.

RATIONALE: Poor appetite is considered a key factor in the development of malnutrition, a link that can be explained by alterations in dietary intake. Given the limited data on dietary characteristics in community-dwelling older adults with poor appetite, the present study aimed to examine whether poor appetite is associated with lower nutrient intake and more unfavourable food choices. METHODS: In 569 participants of the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam aged ≥70 years appetite was assessed using the Simplified Nutritional Appetite Questionnaire and dichotomised into normal (>14) and poor (≤14). Intake of energy, 19 nutrients, 15 food groups, the Dutch Healthy Diet Index 2015 (DHD15) and Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS) were calculated from a food frequency questionnaire. Dietary differences between appetite groups were examined using Mann-Whitney U test and binary logistic regression adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: Mean age was 78 ± 6 years and 52% were female. Appetite was poor in 12.5% of participants. Energy intake was 1951 (median; quartiles 1-3: 1,653-2,384) kcal/day with no difference between appetite groups. Poor appetite was associated with lower intake of protein (OR 0.948, 95%CI 0.922-0.973), folate (0.981, 0.973-0.989), zinc (0.619, 0.454-0.846), vegetables (0.988, 0.982-0.994) and lower scores of DHD15 (0.964, 0.945-0.983) and MDS (0.904, 0.850-0.961), as well as higher intake of carbohydrates (1.015, 1.006-1.023), and vitamins B2 (4.577, 1.650-12.694) and C (1.013, 1.005-1.021). CONCLUSIONS: Community-dwelling older adults with poor appetite showed poorer diet quality with a lower intake of protein, folate, zinc and vegetables, compared with those reporting normal appetite and should be advised accordingly.

Sarcopenia prevalence using handgrip strength or chair stand performance in adults living with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND: The updated European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People (EWGSOP2) recommends handgrip strength (HGS) and the chair stand test (CST) to assess muscle strength, with the CST being a convenient proxy for lower limb strength. However, adiposity may differentially influence these strength criteria and produce discrepant sarcopenia prevalence. OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of sarcopenia using HGS or the CST, and to investigate the associations between these strength criteria and adiposity in adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus. METHODS: The EWGSOP2 definition was used to assess the prevalence of probable (low muscle strength), confirmed (plus low muscle mass) and severe (plus poor physical performance) sarcopenia. Linear regression models were used to study the association between different measures of muscle strength and adiposity. RESULTS: We used data from 732 adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (35.7% female, aged 64 ± 8 years, body mass index 30.7 ± 5.0 kg/m2). Using the CST compared with HGS produced a higher prevalence of probable (31.7% vs. 7.1%), confirmed (5.6% vs. 1.6%) and severe (1.0% vs. 0.3%) sarcopenia, with poor agreement between strength criteria to identify probable sarcopenia. CST performance, but not HGS, was significantly associated with all measures of adiposity in unadjusted and adjusted models. CONCLUSIONS: Higher levels of adiposity may impact CST performance, but not HGS, resulting in a higher prevalence of sarcopenia in adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Consideration should be paid to the most appropriate measure of muscle function in this population.

A comparison of frailty measures in population-based data for patients with colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have revealed age-related inequalities in colorectal cancer care. Increasing levels of frailty in an ageing population may be contributing to this, but quantifying frailty in population-based studies is challenging. OBJECTIVE: To assess the feasibility, validity and reliability of the Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS), the Secondary Care Administrative Records Frailty (SCARF) index and the frailty syndromes (FS) measures in a national colorectal cancer cohort. DESIGN: Retrospective population-based study using 136,008 patients with colorectal cancer treated within the English National Health Service. METHODS: Each measure was generated in the dataset to assess their feasibility. The diagnostic codes used in each measure were compared with those in the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). Validity was assessed using the prevalence of frailty and relationship with 1-year survival. The Brier score and the c-statistic were used to assess performance and discriminative ability of models with included each measure. RESULTS: All measures demonstrated feasibility, validity and reliability. Diagnostic codes used in SCARF and CCI have considerable overlap. Prevalence of frailty determined by each differed; SCARF allocating 55.4% of the population to the lowest risk group compared with 85.1% (HFRS) and 81.2% (FS). HFRS and FS demonstrated the greatest difference in 1-year overall survival between those with the lowest and highest measured levels of frailty. Differences in model performance were marginal. CONCLUSIONS: HFRS, SCARF and FS all have value in quantifying frailty in routine administrative health care datasets. The most suitable measure will depend on the context and requirements of each individual epidemiological study.

The brain insulin receptor gene network and associations with frailty index.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate longitudinal associations between variations in the co-expression-based brain insulin receptor polygenic risk score and frailty, as well as change in frailty across follow-up. METHODS: This longitudinal study included 1605 participants from the Helsinki Birth Cohort Study. Biologically informed expression-based polygenic risk scores for the insulin receptor gene network, which measure genetic variation in the function of the insulin receptor, were calculated for the hippocampal (hePRS-IR) and the mesocorticolimbic (mePRS-IR) regions. Frailty was assessed in at baseline in 2001-2004, 2011-2013 and 2017-2018 by applying a deficit accumulation-based frailty index. Analyses were carried out by applying linear mixed models and logistical regression models adjusted for adult socioeconomic status, birthweight, smoking and their interactions with age. RESULTS: The FI levels of women were 1.19%-points (95% CI 0.12-2.26, P = 0.029) higher than in men. Both categorical and continuous hePRS-IR in women were associated with higher FI levels than in men at baseline (P < 0.05). In women with high hePRS-IR, the rate of change was steeper with increasing age compared to those with low or moderate hePRS-IR (P < 0.05). No associations were detected between mePRS-IR and frailty at baseline, nor between mePRS-IR and the increase in mean FI levels per year in either sex (P > 0.43). CONCLUSIONS: Higher variation in the function of the insulin receptor gene network in the hippocampus is associated with increasing frailty in women. This could potentially offer novel targets for future drug development aimed at frailty and ageing.