A comparison of population viability measures.

The viability of populations can be quantified with several measures, such as the probability of extinction, the mean time to extinction, or the population size. While conservation management decisions can be based on these measures, it has not yet been explored systematically if different viability measures rank species and scenarios similarly and if one viability measure can be converted into another to compare studies. To address this challenge, we conducted a quantitative comparison of eight viability measures based on the simulated population dynamics of more than 4500 virtual species. We compared (a) the ranking of scenarios based on different viability measures, (b) assessed direct correlations between the measures, and (c) explored if parameters in the simulation models can alter the relationship between pairs of viability measures. We found that viability measures ranked species similarly. Despite this, direct correlations between the different measures were often weak and could not be generalized. This can be explained by the loss of information due to the aggregation of raw data into a single number, the effect of model parameters on the relationship between viability measures, and because distributions, such as the probability of extinction over time, cannot be ranked objectively. Similar scenario rankings by different viability measures show that the choice of the viability metric does in many cases not alter which population is regarded more viable or which management option is the best. However, the more two scenarios or populations differ, the more likely it becomes that different measures produce different rankings. We thus recommend that PVA studies publish raw simulation data, which not only describes all risks and opportunities to the reader but also facilitates meta-analyses of PVA studies.

EFForTS-LGraf: A landscape generator for creating smallholder-driven land-use mosaics.

Spatially-explicit simulation models are commonly used to study complex ecological and socio-economic research questions. Often these models depend on detailed input data, such as initial land-cover maps to set up model simulations. Here we present the landscape generator EFFortS-LGraf that provides artificially-generated land-use maps of agricultural landscapes shaped by small-scale farms. EFForTS-LGraf is a process-based landscape generator that explicitly incorporates the human dimension of land-use change. The model generates roads and villages that consist of smallholder farming households. These smallholders use different establishment strategies to create fields in their close vicinity. Crop types are distributed to these fields based on crop fractions and specialization levels. EFForTS-LGraf model parameters such as household area or field size frequency distributions can be derived from household surveys or geospatial data. This can be an advantage over the abstract parameters of neutral landscape generators. We tested the model using oil palm and rubber farming in Indonesia as a case study and validated the artificially-generated maps against classified satellite images. Our results show that EFForTS-LGraf is able to generate realistic land-cover maps with properties that lie within the boundaries of landscapes from classified satellite images. An applied simulation experiment on landscape-level effects of increasing household area and crop specialization revealed that larger households with higher specialization levels led to spatially more homogeneous and less scattered crop type distributions and reduced edge area proportion. Thus, EFForTS-LGraf can be applied both to generate maps as inputs for simulation modelling and as a stand-alone tool for specific landscape-scale analyses in the context of ecological-economic studies of smallholder farming systems.

Peritoneal dialysis as therapeutic option in heart failure patients.

AIMS: Each episode of acute decompensated heart failure (HF) incrementally adds to mortality. Peritoneal dialysis (PD) offers an alternative therapeutic option in refractory HF and reduces the incidence of decompensation episodes. The objective of this study was to determine the efficacy of PD, in terms of functional status, surrogate endpoints, rate of hospitalizations, and mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: This study is based on the registry of the German Society of Nephrology, involving 159 patients receiving PD treatment due to refractory HF between January 2010 and December 2014. Body weight was reduced by PD (82.2 ± 14.9 to 78.4 ± 14.8 kg, P < 0.001), and significant improvements in New York Heart Association functional class (3.38 ± 0.55 to 2.85 ± 0.49, P < 0.001) were found already after 3 months. Left ventricular ejection fraction did not change (31.5 ± 13.8 to 34.0 ± 15.7%, P = 0.175). C-reactive protein improved with PD treatment (33.7 ± 52.6 to 17.1 ± 26.3 mg/L, P = 0.004). Blood urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio decreased significantly (148.7 ± 68.3 to 106.7 ± 44.8 mg/dL, P < 0.001). Hospitalization rates decreased significantly (total number 2.86 ± 1.88 to 1.90 ± 1.78, P = 0.001, and 39.2 ± 30.7 to 27.1 ± 25.2 days, P = 0.004). One year mortality was 39.6% in end-stage HF patients treated with PD. CONCLUSIONS: Peritoneal dialysis offers an additional therapeutic option in end-stage HF and is associated with improved New York Heart Association classification and reduced hospitalization. Although PD treatment was associated with various benefits, further studies are necessary to identify which patients benefit the most from PD.

Long-term safety and outcome of intravenous treprostinil via an implanted pump in pulmonary hypertension.

BACKGROUND: We examined safety and long-term outcomes of intravenous treprostinil administered via the implantable LENUS Pro pump in patients with severe pulmonary hypertension (PH). METHODS: Patients with PH undergoing pump implantation between December 2009 and October 2016 in German referral centers were retrospectively analyzed (end of follow-up: May 2017). The primary objective was to determine long-term safety of the implantable pump. Secondary end points were 3-year survival and prognostic relevance of pre-implantation hemodynamics. RESULTS: We monitored 129 patients (120 with pulmonary arterial hypertension, 1 with PH due to lung diseases, and 8 with inoperable chronic thromboembolic PH) for 260 patient-years (median follow-up, 19 months; interquartile range, 11-34 months). There were 82 complications/peri-procedural events in 60 patients; of these, 57 were serious adverse events (0.60 per 1,000 treatment-days), including 2 periprocedural deaths due to right heart failure. The incidence of complications related to the pump, catheter, infection, and pump pocket per 1,000 treatment-days was 0.074, 0.264, 0.032 (3 local infections; no bloodstream infections), and 0.380, respectively. Three-year overall and transplant-free survival were 66.5% and 55.7%, respectively (39 patients died; 16 underwent lung transplantation). Baseline cardiac index independently predicted transplant-free survival (multivariate hazard ratio, 1.90; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-3.28; p = 0.019; n = 95). CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that intravenous treprostinil via the LENUS Pro pump in advanced PH is associated with a very low risk of bloodstream infections, but other serious adverse events may occur. Therefore, this therapy needs standardization and should be offered in specialized PH centers only. Further technical advances of the pump system and prospective studies are needed.

The role of biotic factors during plant establishment in novel communities assessed with an agent-based simulation model.

BACKGROUND: Establishment success of non-native species is not only influenced by environmental conditions, but also by interactions with local competitors and enemies. The magnitude of these biotic interactions is mediated by species traits that reflect competitive strength or defence mechanisms. Our aim was to investigate the importance of species traits for successful establishment of non-native species in a native community exhibiting biotic resistance in the form of competition and herbivory. METHODS: We developed a trait-based, individual-based simulation model tracking the survival of non-native plants in a native community. In the model, non-native plants are characterized by high or low values of competition and defence traits. Model scenarios included variation of initial number of non-natives, intensity of competitive interaction, density of herbivores and density as well as mixture of the native community. RESULTS: Traits related to competition had a much greater impact on survival of non-native species than traits related to defence. Survival rates of strong competitors never fell below 50% while survival of weak competitors averaged at about 10%. Weak competitors were also much more susceptible to competitive pressures such as community density, composition and competition intensity. Strong competitors responded negatively to changes in competition intensity, but hardly to composition or density of the native community. High initial numbers of non-native individuals decreased survival rate of strong competitors, but increased the survival rate of weak competitors. Survival under herbivore attack was only slightly higher for plants with high defensive ability than for those with low defensive ability. Surprisingly, though, herbivory increased survival of species classified as weak competitors. DISCUSSION: High survival rates of strong non-native competitors relate to a higher probability of successful establishment than for weak competitors. However, the reduced survival of strong competitors at high initial numbers indicates a self-thinning effect, probably mediated by a strongly competitive milieu. For weak competitors, our model emphasizes positive effects of high propagule pressure known from field studies. General effects of herbivory or defence abilities on survival were not supported by our model. However, the positive effect of herbivory on survival of weak competitors indicated side effects of herbivory, such as weakening resident competitors. This might play an important role for establishment of non-natives in a new community.

Quantitation of Perfused Lung Volume Using Hybrid SPECT/CT Allows Refining the Assessment of Lung Perfusion and Estimating Disease Extent in Chronic Thromboembolic Pulmonary Hypertension.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated the feasibility of perfusion SPECT/CT for providing quantitative data for estimation of perfusion defect extent in chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH). METHODS: Thirty patients with CTEPH underwent Tc-human serum albumin lung perfusion SPECT/CT. Perfusion defects were quantified using 3 different methods: (1) visual, semiquantitative scoring of perfusion defect extent in each lung segment, (2) threshold-based segmentation of perfused lung volumes, and (3) threshold-based segmentation of perfused lung volumes divided by segmented lung volumes at CT (perfusion index). Imaging findings were correlated with right-sided heart catheterization results and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to identify SPECT thresholds for mean pulmonary arterial pressure (PAPm) greater than 50 mm Hg. RESULTS: Assessment of lung perfusion provided similar results using all 3 methods. The perfusion defect score correlated with PAPm (rs = 0.60, P = 0.0005) and was associated with serum levels of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (rs = 0.37, P = 0.04). Perfused lung volume (40% threshold, rs = -0.48, P = 0.007) and perfusion index (40% threshold, rs = -0.50, P = 0.005) decreased as PAPm increased. Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that perfusion defect score (sensitivity, 88%; specificity, 77%; area under the curve [AUC] = 0.89, P = 0.001), perfused lung volume (sensitivity, 88%; specificity, 64%; AUC = 0.80, P = 0.01), and perfusion index (sensitivity, 88%; specificity, 64%; AUC = 0.82, P = 0.009) could identify patients with PAPm of greater than 50 mm Hg. CONCLUSIONS: Quantitative analysis of perfusion defects at SPECT is feasible, provides a measure of disease severity, and correlates with established clinical parameters. Quantitation of perfusion SPECT may refine the diagnostic approach in CTEPH providing a quantitative imaging biomarker, for example, for therapy monitoring.

Land-use change in oil palm dominated tropical landscapes-An agent-based model to explore ecological and socio-economic trade-offs.

Land-use changes have dramatically transformed tropical landscapes. We describe an ecological-economic land-use change model as an integrated, exploratory tool used to analyze how tropical land-use change affects ecological and socio-economic functions. The model analysis seeks to determine what kind of landscape mosaic can improve the ensemble of ecosystem functioning, biodiversity, and economic benefit based on the synergies and trade-offs that we have to account for. More specifically, (1) how do specific ecosystem functions, such as carbon storage, and economic functions, such as household consumption, relate to each other? (2) How do external factors, such as the output prices of crops, affect these relationships? (3) How do these relationships change when production inefficiency differs between smallholder farmers and learning is incorporated? We initialize the ecological-economic model with artificially generated land-use maps parameterized to our study region. The economic sub-model simulates smallholder land-use management decisions based on a profit maximization assumption. Each household determines factor inputs for all household fields and decides on land-use change based on available wealth. The ecological sub-model includes a simple account of carbon sequestration in above-ground and below-ground vegetation. We demonstrate model capabilities with results on household consumption and carbon sequestration from different output price and farming efficiency scenarios. The overall results reveal complex interactions between the economic and ecological spheres. For instance, model scenarios with heterogeneous crop-specific household productivity reveal a comparatively high inertia of land-use change. Our model analysis even shows such an increased temporal stability in landscape composition and carbon stocks of the agricultural area under dynamic price trends. These findings underline the utility of ecological-economic models, such as ours, to act as exploratory tools which can advance our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the trade-offs and synergies of ecological and economic functions in tropical landscapes.

Mortality in pulmonary arterial hypertension: prediction by the 2015 European pulmonary hypertension guidelines risk stratification model.

The 2015 European pulmonary hypertension (PH) guidelines propose a risk stratification strategy for patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Low-, intermediate- and high-risk strata are defined by estimated 1-year mortality risks of <5%, 5-10% and >10%, respectively. This risk assessment strategy awaits validation.We analysed data from patients with newly diagnosed PAH enrolled into COMPERA (Comparative, Prospective Registry of Newly Initiated Therapies for Pulmonary Hypertension), a European-based PH registry. An abbreviated version of the risk assessment strategy proposed by the European PH guidelines was applied, using the following variables: World Health Organization functional class, 6-min walking distance, brain natriuretic peptide or its N-terminal fragment, right atrial pressure, cardiac index and mixed venous oxygen saturation.Data from 1588 patients were analysed. Mortality rates were significantly different between the three risk strata (p<0.001 for all comparisons). In the entire patient population, the observed mortality rates 1 year after diagnosis were 2.8% in the low-risk cohort (n=196), 9.9% in the intermediate-risk cohort (n=1116) and 21.2% in the high-risk cohort (n=276). In addition, the risk assessment strategy proved valid at follow-up and in major PAH subgroups.An abbreviated version of the risk assessment strategy proposed by the current European PH guidelines provides accurate mortality estimates in patients with PAH.

Balloon pulmonary angioplasty for inoperable patients with chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension: the initial German experience.

Balloon pulmonary angioplasty (BPA) is an emerging treatment for patients with inoperable chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH).We report on a prospective series of 56 consecutive patients who underwent 266 BPA interventions (median, five per patient) at two German institutions. All patients underwent a comprehensive diagnostic work-up including right heart catheterisation at baseline and 24 weeks after their last intervention.BPA resulted in improvements in WHO functional class, 6 min walk distance (mean change, +33 m), right ventricular function and haemodynamics, including a decline in mean pulmonary artery pressure by 18% and in pulmonary vascular resistance by 26%. Procedure-related adverse events occurred in 9.4% of the interventions. The most common complications were related to pulmonary vascular injury and consecutive pulmonary bleeding. Most of these events were asymptomatic and self-limiting, but one patient died from pulmonary bleeding, resulting in a mortality rate of 1.8%.BPA resulted in haemodynamic and clinical improvements but was also associated with a considerable number of complications, including one fatal pulmonary bleeding. As the effects of BPA on survival are unknown, randomised controlled outcome trials comparing BPA with approved medical therapies in patients with inoperable CTEPH are required to allow for appropriate risk-benefit assessments.

How patch size and refuge availability change interaction strength and population dynamics: a combined individual- and population-based modeling experiment.

Knowledge on how functional responses (a measurement of feeding interaction strength) are affected by patch size and habitat complexity (represented by refuge availability) is crucial for understanding food-web stability and subsequently biodiversity. Due to their laborious character, it is almost impossible to carry out systematic empirical experiments on functional responses across wide gradients of patch sizes and refuge availabilities. Here we overcame this issue by using an individual-based model (IBM) to simulate feeding experiments. The model is based on empirically measured traits such as body-mass dependent speed and capture success. We simulated these experiments in patches ranging from sizes of petri dishes to natural patches in the field. Moreover, we varied the refuge availability within the patch independently of patch size, allowing for independent analyses of both variables. The maximum feeding rate (the maximum number of prey a predator can consume in a given time frame) is independent of patch size and refuge availability, as it is the physiological upper limit of feeding rates. Moreover, the results of these simulations revealed that a type III functional response, which is known to have a stabilizing effect on population dynamics, fitted the data best. The half saturation density (the prey density where a predator consumes half of its maximum feeding rate) increased with refuge availability but was only marginally influenced by patch size. Subsequently, we investigated how patch size and refuge availability influenced stability and coexistence of predator-prey systems. Following common practice, we used an allometric scaled Rosenzweig-MacArthur predator-prey model based on results from our in silico IBM experiments. The results suggested that densities of both populations are nearly constant across the range of patch sizes simulated, resulting from the constant interaction strength across the patch sizes. However, constant densities with decreasing patch sizes mean a decrease of absolute number of individuals, consequently leading to extinction of predators in the smallest patches. Moreover, increasing refuge availabilities also allowed predator and prey to coexist by decreased interaction strengths. Our results underline the need for protecting large patches with high habitat complexity to sustain biodiversity.

A review of the ecosystem functions in oil palm plantations, using forests as a reference system.

Oil palm plantations have expanded rapidly in recent decades. This large-scale land-use change has had great ecological, economic, and social impacts on both the areas converted to oil palm and their surroundings. However, research on the impacts of oil palm cultivation is scattered and patchy, and no clear overview exists. We address this gap through a systematic and comprehensive literature review of all ecosystem functions in oil palm plantations, including several (genetic, medicinal and ornamental resources, information functions) not included in previous systematic reviews. We compare ecosystem functions in oil palm plantations to those in forests, as the conversion of forest to oil palm is prevalent in the tropics. We find that oil palm plantations generally have reduced ecosystem functioning compared to forests: 11 out of 14 ecosystem functions show a net decrease in level of function. Some functions show decreases with potentially irreversible global impacts (e.g. reductions in gas and climate regulation, habitat and nursery functions, genetic resources, medicinal resources, and information functions). The most serious impacts occur when forest is cleared to establish new plantations, and immediately afterwards, especially on peat soils. To variable degrees, specific plantation management measures can prevent or reduce losses of some ecosystem functions (e.g. avoid illegal land clearing via fire, avoid draining of peat, use of integrated pest management, use of cover crops, mulch, and compost) and we highlight synergistic mitigation measures that can improve multiple ecosystem functions simultaneously. The only ecosystem function which increases in oil palm plantations is, unsurprisingly, the production of marketable goods. Our review highlights numerous research gaps. In particular, there are significant gaps with respect to socio-cultural information functions. Further, there is a need for more empirical data on the importance of spatial and temporal scales, such as differences among plantations in different environments, of different sizes, and of different ages, as our review has identified examples where ecosystem functions vary spatially and temporally. Finally, more research is needed on developing management practices that can offset the losses of ecosystem functions. Our findings should stimulate research to address the identified gaps, and provide a foundation for more systematic research and discussion on ways to minimize the negative impacts and maximize the positive impacts of oil palm cultivation.

Root-Lesion Nematodes Suppress Cabbage Aphid Population Development by Reducing Aphid Daily Reproduction.

Empirical studies have shown that belowground feeding herbivores can affect the performance of aboveground herbivores in different ways. Often the critical life-history parameters underlying the observed performance effects remain unexplored. In order to better understand the cause for the observed effects on aboveground herbivores, these ecological mechanisms must be better understood. In this study we combined empirical experiments with a modeling approach to analyze the effect of two root feeding endoparasitic nematodes with different feeding strategies on the population growth of the aboveground feeding specialist aphid Brevicoryne brassicae on Brassica nigra. The aim was to test whether emerging differences in life history characteristics (days until reproduction, daily reproduction) would be sufficient to explain observed differences in aphid population development on plants with and without two species of nematodes. Aphid numbers were lower on plants with Pratylenchus penetrans in comparison to aphid numbers on plants with Meloidogyne spp. A dedicated experiment showed that aphid daily reproduction was lower on plants with P. penetrans (3.08 offspring female(-1) day(-1)) in comparison to both uninfested plants and plants with Meloidogyne spp. (3.50 offspring female(-1) day(-1)). The species-specific reduction of aphid reproduction appeared independent of changes in amino acids, soluble sugars or the glucosinolate sinigrin in the phloem. An individual-based model revealed that relatively small differences in reproduction rate per female were sufficient to yield a similar difference in aphid populations as was found in the empirical experiments.

Diffusion Capacity and Mortality in Patients With Pulmonary Hypertension Due to Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to investigate the prognostic importance of a low diffusion capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO) in patients with a catheter-based diagnosis of pulmonary hypertension due to heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (PH-HFpEF). BACKGROUND: In patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension, a low DLCO is associated with poor outcome. It is unclear whether the same is true in patients with PH-HFpEF. METHODS: This study retrospectively analyzed clinical characteristics, smoking history, lung function measurements, chest computed tomography, hemodynamics, and survival in 108 patients with PH-HFpEF. The presence of post-capillary PH was determined by right heart catheterization. Patients with moderate or severe lung function abnormalities were excluded. RESULTS: On the basis of previous studies and receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis, the study cohort was divided into patients with a DLCO <45% of the predicted value (DLCO<45%, low DLCO; n = 52) and patients with a DLCO ≥45% of the predicted value (DLCO≥45%; n = 56). DLCO<45% was associated with male sex (odds ratio [OR]: 2.71; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05 to 6.99; p = 0.039) and smoking history (OR: 5.01; 95% CI: 1.91 to 13.10; p < 0.001). There were no correlations between DLCO and other lung function parameters and hemodynamics. Compared with patients with DLCO≥45%, patients with DLCO<45% had a significantly worse outcome (survival rate at 3 years 36.5% vs. 87.8%, p < 0.001 by log-rank analysis). Cox proportional hazard analysis identified DLCO<45% as an independent predictor of death (hazard ratio: 6.6; 95% CI: 2.6 to 16.9; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with PH-HFpEF, a low DLCO is strongly associated with mortality.

Modeling microbial growth and dynamics.

Modeling has become an important tool for widening our understanding of microbial growth in the context of applied microbiology and related to such processes as safe food production, wastewater treatment, bioremediation, or microbe-mediated mining. Various modeling techniques, such as primary, secondary and tertiary mathematical models, phenomenological models, mechanistic or kinetic models, reactive transport models, Bayesian network models, artificial neural networks, as well as agent-, individual-, and particle-based models have been applied to model microbial growth and activity in many applied fields. In this mini-review, we summarize the basic concepts of these models using examples and applications from food safety and wastewater treatment systems. We further review recent developments in other applied fields focusing on models that explicitly include spatial relationships. Using these examples, we point out the conceptual similarities across fields of application and encourage the combined use of different modeling techniques in hybrid models as well as their cross-disciplinary exchange. For instance, pattern-oriented modeling has its origin in ecology but may be employed to parameterize microbial growth models when experimental data are scarce. Models could also be used as virtual laboratories to optimize experimental design analogous to the virtual ecologist approach. Future microbial growth models will likely become more complex to benefit from the rich toolbox that is now available to microbial growth modelers.

Spatial scales of interactions among bacteria and between bacteria and the leaf surface.

Microbial life on plant leaves is characterized by a multitude of interactions between leaf colonizers and their environment. While the existence of many of these interactions has been confirmed, their spatial scale or reach often remained unknown. In this study, we applied spatial point pattern analysis to 244 distribution patterns of Pantoea agglomerans and Pseudomonas syringae on bean leaves. The results showed that bacterial colonizers of leaves interact with their environment at different spatial scales. Interactions among bacteria were often confined to small spatial scales up to 5-20 µm, compared to interactions between bacteria and leaf surface structures such as trichomes which could be observed in excess of 100 µm. Spatial point-pattern analyses prove a comprehensive tool to determine the different spatial scales of bacterial interactions on plant leaves and will help microbiologists to better understand the interplay between these interactions.

Different expression of membrane-bound and cytosolic hippocampal steroid receptor complexes during spatial training in young male rats.

Brain steroid receptors are involved in mediating stress responses and cognitive processes throughfast non-genomic signaling of membrane-bound receptors or through the slower genomic actions of cytosolic receptors. Although the contribution of these different pathways in the formation and maintenance of memories has been widely discussed, little is known about the regulation of membrane versus cytosolic receptors during a learning task. Besides the relatively well studied corticosterone-binding glucocorticoid (GR) and mineralocorticoid (MR) receptors, sex steroid hormone receptors, such as the androgen and estrogen (ERα and ERß) receptors, have also been shown to be involved in the regulation of stress and cognition. Moreover, the latter receptors are known to be functional in both sexes. Therefore, we studied the expression of hippocampal receptors in both cellular fractions during spatial learning in male rats. Membrane and cytosolic GR were shown to be downregulated after memory acquisition and unaffected after consolidation, whereas membrane MR was upregulated after both learning phases and unaffected in the cytosol. Cytosolic ERα was downregulated after both phases and unaffected in the membrane. The remaining receptors were not regulated. The data suggest a specific role of MR and ERα during training as fast and slow mediators, respectively.

Adaptive and selective seed abortion reveals complex conditional decision making in plants.

Behavior is traditionally attributed to animals only. Recently, evidence for plant behavior is accumulating, mostly from plant physiological studies. Here, we provide ecological evidence for complex plant behavior in the form of seed abortion decisions conditional on internal and external cues. We analyzed seed abortion patterns of barberry plants exposed to seed parasitism and different environmental conditions. Without abortion, parasite infestation of seeds can lead to loss of all seeds in a fruit. We statistically tested a series of null models with Monte Carlo simulations to establish selectivity and adaptiveness of the observed seed abortion patterns. Seed abortion was more frequent in parasitized fruits and fruits from dry habitats. Surprisingly, seed abortion occurred with significantly greater probability if there was a second intact seed in the fruit. This strategy provides a fitness benefit if abortion can prevent a sibling seed from coinfestation and if nonabortion of an infested but surviving single seed saves resources invested in the fruit coat. Ecological evidence for complex decision making in plants thus includes a structural memory (the second seed), simple reasoning (integration of inner and outer conditions), conditional behavior (abortion), and anticipation of future risks (seed predation).

Production and robustness of a Cacao agroecosystem: effects of two contrasting types of management strategies.

Ecological intensification, i.e. relying on ecological processes to replace chemical inputs, is often presented as the ideal alternative to conventional farming based on an intensive use of chemicals. It is said to both maintain high yield and provide more robustness to the agroecosystem. However few studies compared the two types of management with respect to their consequences for production and robustness toward perturbation. In this study our aim is to assess productive performance and robustness toward diverse perturbations of a Cacao agroecosystem managed with two contrasting groups of strategies: one group of strategies relying on a high level of pesticides and a second relying on low levels of pesticides. We conducted this study using a dynamical model of a Cacao agroecosystem that includes Cacao production dynamics, and dynamics of three insects: a pest (the Cacao Pod Borer, Conopomorpha cramerella) and two characteristic but unspecified beneficial insects (a pollinator of Cacao and a parasitoid of the Cacao Pod Borer). Our results showed two opposite behaviors of the Cacao agroecosystem depending on its management, i.e. an agroecosystem relying on a high input of pesticides and showing low ecosystem functioning and an agroecosystem with low inputs, relying on a high functioning of the ecosystem. From the production point of view, no type of management clearly outclassed the other and their ranking depended on the type of pesticide used. From the robustness point of view, the two types of managements performed differently when subjected to different types of perturbations. Ecologically intensive systems were more robust to pest outbreaks and perturbations related to pesticide characteristics while chemically intensive systems were more robust to Cacao production and management-related perturbation.