Epigenetic Contributions to Clinical Risk Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is among the leading causes of death worldwide. The discovery of new omics biomarkers could help to improve risk stratification algorithms and expand our understanding of molecular pathways contributing to the disease. Here, ASSIGN-a cardiovascular risk prediction tool recommended for use in Scotland-was examined in tandem with epigenetic and proteomic features in risk prediction models in ≥12 657 participants from the Generation Scotland cohort. METHODS: Previously generated DNA methylation-derived epigenetic scores (EpiScores) for 109 protein levels were considered, in addition to both measured levels and an EpiScore for cTnI (cardiac troponin I). The associations between individual protein EpiScores and the CVD risk were examined using Cox regression (ncases≥1274; ncontrols≥11 383) and visualized in a tailored R application. Splitting the cohort into independent training (n=6880) and test (n=3659) subsets, a composite CVD EpiScore was then developed. RESULTS: Sixty-five protein EpiScores were associated with incident CVD independently of ASSIGN and the measured concentration of cTnI (P<0.05), over a follow-up of up to 16 years of electronic health record linkage. The most significant EpiScores were for proteins involved in metabolic, immune response, and tissue development/regeneration pathways. A composite CVD EpiScore (based on 45 protein EpiScores) was a significant predictor of CVD risk independent of ASSIGN and the concentration of cTnI (hazard ratio, 1.32; P=3.7×10-3; 0.3% increase in C-statistic). CONCLUSIONS: EpiScores for circulating protein levels are associated with CVD risk independent of traditional risk factors and may increase our understanding of the etiology of the disease.

Triangulating evidence from observational and Mendelian randomization studies of ketone bodies for cognitive performance.

BACKGROUND: Ketone bodies (KBs) are an alternative energy supply for brain functions when glucose is limited. The most abundant ketone metabolite, 3-ß-hydroxybutyrate (BOHBUT), has been suggested to prevent or delay cognitive impairment, but the evidence remains unclear. We triangulated observational and Mendelian randomization (MR) studies to investigate the association and causation between KBs and cognitive function. METHODS: In observational analyses of 5506 participants aged ≥ 45 years from the Whitehall II study, we used multiple linear regression to investigate the associations between categorized KBs and cognitive function scores. Two-sample MR was carried out using summary statistics from an in-house KBs meta-analysis between the University College London-London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine-Edinburgh-Bristol (UCLEB) Consortium and Kettunen et al. (N = 45,031), and publicly available summary statistics of cognitive performance and Alzheimer's disease (AD) from the Social Science Genetic Association Consortium (N = 257,841), and the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project (N = 54,162), respectively. Both strong (P < 5 × 10-8) and suggestive (P < 1 × 10-5) sets of instrumental variables for BOHBUT were applied. Finally, we performed cis-MR on OXCT1, a well-known gene for KB catabolism. RESULTS: BOHBUT was positively associated with general cognitive function (ß = 0.26, P = 9.74 × 10-3). In MR analyses, we observed a protective effect of BOHBUT on cognitive performance (inverse variance weighted: ßIVW = 7.89 × 10-2, PIVW = 1.03 × 10-2; weighted median: ßW-Median = 8.65 × 10-2, PW-Median = 9.60 × 10-3) and a protective effect on AD (ßIVW = - 0.31, odds ratio: OR = 0.74, PIVW = 3.06 × 10-2). Cis-MR showed little evidence of therapeutic modulation of OXCT1 on cognitive impairment. CONCLUSIONS: Triangulation of evidence suggests that BOHBUT has a beneficial effect on cognitive performance. Our findings raise the hypothesis that increased BOHBUT may improve general cognitive functions, delaying cognitive impairment and reducing the risk of AD.

Combining serum metabolomic profiles with traditional risk factors improves 10-year cardiovascular risk prediction in people with type 2 diabetes.

AIMS: To identify a group of metabolites associated with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in people with type 2 diabetes and assess its predictive performance over-and-above a current CVD risk score (QRISK3). METHODS AND RESULTS: A panel of 228 serum metabolites was measured at baseline in 1066 individuals with type 2 diabetes (Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study) who were then followed up for CVD over the subsequent 10 years. We applied 100 repeats of Cox least absolute shrinkage and selection operator to select metabolites with frequency >90% as components for a metabolites-based risk score (MRS). The predictive performance of the MRS was assessed in relation to a reference model that was based on QRISK3 plus prevalent CVD and statin use at baseline. Of 1021 available individuals, 255 (25.0%) developed CVD (median follow-up: 10.6 years). Twelve metabolites relating to fluid balance, ketone bodies, amino acids, fatty acids, glycolysis, and lipoproteins were selected to construct the MRS that showed positive association with 10-year cardiovascular risk following adjustment for traditional risk factors [hazard ratio (HR) 2.67; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.96, 3.64]. The c-statistic was 0.709 (95%CI 0.679, 0.739) for the reference model alone, increasing slightly to 0.728 (95%CI 0.700, 0.757) following addition of the MRS. Compared with the reference model, the net reclassification index and integrated discrimination index for the reference model plus the MRS were 0.362 (95%CI 0.179, 0.506) and 0.041 (95%CI 0.020, 0.071), respectively. CONCLUSION: Metabolomics data might improve predictive performance of current CVD risk scores based on traditional risk factors in people with type 2 diabetes. External validation is warranted to assess the generalizability of improved CVD risk prediction using the MRS.

This study looked at whether combining a group of new markers found in the blood (called metabolites) with traditional risk factors (such as high blood pressure and obesity) could more accurately predict how likely people with type 2 diabetes are to develop cardiovascular diseases in the next 10 years. Key findingsTwelve metabolites (including amino acids and lipids) showed strong association with 10-year cardiovascular risk in people with type 2 diabetes, and a metabolites-based risk score (MRS) was created by integrating these metabolites.Combining the MRS with traditional risk factors was better at predicting the risk of a person with T2D for developing cardiovascular diseases within the next 10 years than using traditional risk factors alone.

Risk of dementia associated with body mass index, changes in body weight and waist circumference in older people with type 2 diabetes: The Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: To determine the relationship of dementia with preceding body mass index (BMI), changes in body weight and waist circumference in older people with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: In the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study (1064 men and women with type 2 diabetes, aged 60-75), body weight, waist circumference and BMI were measured at baseline and after 4 years in a subgroup (n = 821). Percentage body weight and waist circumference change over 4 years were calculated. Data on incident dementia was recorded during a median follow-up time of 10.84 years. Survival models considering a range of co-variables and/or death as a competing risk were used to estimate the risks of dementia associated with each weight-related variable. RESULTS: A total of 105 incident dementia events were recorded. When compared with people in the lowest BMI group (<25 kg/m2 ), risk of dementia was lower in intermediate BMI groups (25-29.9 kg/m2 , HR 0.44, p = 0.002; 30-34.9 kg/m2 , HR 0.41, p = 0.001) and the highest BMI group (≧35 kg/m2 , HR 0.35, p = 0.001). In the weight change subgroup, 78 incident dementia events were recorded between years 4 and 10. Body weight loss over 5% (compared with ≦5%) was associated with higher incidence of dementia (HR 2.06, p = 0.010). The association between waist circumference change and dementia was not significant. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATIONS: Both a lower BMI and weight loss over a period of years are indicative of increased dementia risk for older people with type 2 diabetes, while waist circumference changes may be less informative.

Biomedical consequences of elevated cholesterol-containing lipoproteins and apolipoproteins on cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Higher concentrations of cholesterol-containing low-density lipoprotein (LDL-C) increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The association of LDL-C with non-CVD traits remains unclear, as are the possible independent contributions of other cholesterol-containing lipoproteins and apolipoproteins. METHODS: Nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy was used to measure the cholesterol content of high density (HDL-C), very low-density (VLDL-C), intermediate-density (IDL-C), as well as low-density lipoprotein fractions, the apolipoproteins Apo-A1 and Apo-B, as well as total triglycerides (TG), remnant-cholesterol (Rem-Chol) and total cholesterol (TC). The causal effects of these exposures were assessed against 33 outcomes using univariable and multivariable Mendelian randomization (MR). RESULTS: The majority of cholesterol containing lipoproteins and apolipoproteins affect coronary heart disease (CHD), carotid intima-media thickness, carotid plaque, C-reactive protein (CRP) and blood pressure. Multivariable MR indicated that many of these effects act independently of HDL-C, LDL-C and TG, the most frequently measured lipid fractions. Higher concentrations of TG, VLDL-C, Rem-Chol and Apo-B increased heart failure (HF) risk; often independently of LDL-C, HDL-C or TG. Finally, a subset of these exposures associated with non-CVD traits such as Alzheimer's disease (AD: HDL-C, LDL-C, IDL-C, Apo-B), type 2 diabetes (T2DM: VLDL-C, IDL-C, LDL-C), and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD: LDL-C, IDL-C). CONCLUSIONS: The cholesterol content of a wide range of lipoprotein and apolipoproteins associate with measures of atherosclerosis, blood pressure, CRP, and CHD, with a subset affecting HF, T2DM, AD and IBD risk. Many of the observed effects appear to act independently of LDL-C, HDL-C, and TG, supporting the targeting of lipid fractions beyond LDL-C for disease prevention.

It is known that increases in the amount of certain fats and proteins in the blood can lead to heart attacks. These increases are also found in people with other diseases. Here, we looked at inherited differences in some fats and proteins in blood to explore whether these could be associated with various diseases. We found that some fats and proteins in blood were associated with heart disease (including heart failure), blood pressure, blockages in blood vessels, and to a lesser extent with diabetes, Alzheimer's disease, and inflammatory bowel disease. These findings suggest that changes to lipids and proteins in the blood might lead to various diseases, including some that are not normally associated with changes in the blood. Monitoring these changes could improve diagnosis and treatment of these diseases.

Serum metabolomic profiles associated with subclinical and clinical cardiovascular phenotypes in people with type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is the leading cause of death in diabetes, but the full range of biomarkers reflecting atherosclerotic burden and CVD risk in people with diabetes is unknown. Metabolomics may help identify novel biomarkers potentially involved in development of atherosclerosis. We investigated the serum metabolomic profile of subclinical atherosclerosis, measured using ankle brachial index (ABI), in people with type 2 diabetes, compared with the profile for symptomatic CVD in the same population. METHODS: The Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study is a cohort of 1,066 individuals with type 2 diabetes. ABI was measured at baseline, years 4 and 10, with cardiovascular events assessed at baseline and during 10 years of follow-up. A panel of 228 metabolites was measured at baseline using nuclear magnetic resonance spectrometry, and their association with both ABI and prevalent CVD was explored using univariate regression models and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). Metabolites associated with baseline ABI were further explored for association with follow-up ABI and incident CVD. RESULTS: Mean (standard deviation, SD) ABI at baseline was 0.97 (0.18, N = 1025), and prevalence of CVD was 35.0%. During 10-year follow-up, mean (SD) change in ABI was + 0.006 (0.178, n = 436), and 257 CVD events occurred. Lactate, glycerol, creatinine and glycoprotein acetyls levels were associated with baseline ABI in both univariate regression [ßs (95% confidence interval, CI) ranged from - 0.025 (- 0.036, - 0.015) to - 0.023 (- 0.034, - 0.013), all p < 0.0002] and LASSO analysis. The associations remained nominally significant after adjustment for major vascular risk factors. In prospective analyses, lactate was nominally associated with ABI measured at years 4 and 10 after adjustment for baseline ABI. The four ABI-associated metabolites were all positively associated with prevalent CVD [odds ratios (ORs) ranged from 1.29 (1.13, 1.47) to 1.49 (1.29, 1.74), all p < 0.0002], and they were also positively associated with incident CVD [ORs (95% CI) ranged from 1.19 (1.02, 1.39) to 1.35 (1.17, 1.56), all p < 0.05]. CONCLUSIONS: Serum metabolites relating to glycolysis, fluid balance and inflammation were independently associated with both a marker of subclinical atherosclerosis and with symptomatic CVD in people with type 2 diabetes. Additional investigation is warranted to determine their roles as possible etiological and/or predictive biomarkers for atherosclerotic CVD.

Higher baseline inflammatory marker levels predict greater cognitive decline in older people with type 2 diabetes: year 10 follow-up of the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to determine the longitudinal association of circulating markers of systemic inflammation with subsequent long-term cognitive change in older people with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: The Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study is a prospective cohort study of 1066 adults aged 60 to 75 years with type 2 diabetes. Baseline data included C-reactive protein, IL-6, TNF-α fibrinogen and neuropsychological testing on major cognitive domains. Cognitive testing was repeated after 10 years in 581 participants. A general cognitive ability score was derived from the battery of seven individual cognitive tests using principal component analysis. Linear regression was used to determine longitudinal associations between baseline inflammatory markers and cognitive outcomes at follow-up, with baseline cognitive test results included as covariables to model cognitive change over time. RESULTS: Following adjustment for age, sex and baseline general cognitive ability, higher baseline fibrinogen and IL-6 were associated with greater decline in general cognitive ability (standardised ßs = -0.059, p=0.032 and -0.064, p=0.018, respectively). These associations lost statistical significance after adjustment for baseline vascular and diabetes-related covariables. When assessing associations with individual cognitive tests, higher IL-6 was associated with greater decline in tests of executive function and abstract reasoning (standardised ßs = 0.095, p=0.006 and -0.127, p=0.001, respectively). Similarly, raised fibrinogen and C-reactive protein levels were associated with greater decline in processing speed (standardised ßs = -0.115, p=0.001 and -0.111, p=0.001, respectively). These associations remained statistically significant after adjustment for the diabetes- and vascular-related risk factors. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Higher baseline levels of inflammatory markers, including plasma IL-6, fibrinogen and C-reactive protein, were associated with subsequent cognitive decline in older people with type 2 diabetes. At least some of this association appeared to be specific to certain cognitive domains and to be independent of vascular and diabetes-related risk factors.

Validation of lipid-related therapeutic targets for coronary heart disease prevention using human genetics.

Drug target Mendelian randomization (MR) studies use DNA sequence variants in or near a gene encoding a drug target, that alter the target's expression or function, as a tool to anticipate the effect of drug action on the same target. Here we apply MR to prioritize drug targets for their causal relevance for coronary heart disease (CHD). The targets are further prioritized using independent replication, co-localization, protein expression profiles and data from the British National Formulary and clinicaltrials.gov. Out of the 341 drug targets identified through their association with blood lipids (HDL-C, LDL-C and triglycerides), we robustly prioritize 30 targets that might elicit beneficial effects in the prevention or treatment of CHD, including NPC1L1 and PCSK9, the targets of drugs used in CHD prevention. We discuss how this approach can be generalized to other targets, disease biomarkers and endpoints to help prioritize and validate targets during the drug development process.

Addition of hyaluronic acid to the FIB-4 liver fibrosis score improves prediction of incident cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma in type 2 diabetes: The Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is associated with increased risk of progression to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in people with chronic liver diseases, particularly non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). However, the absolute risk of progression is low. So, it is crucial to accurately identify patients who would benefit most from hepatology referral and intensified management. Current risk-stratification tools are suboptimal and perform worse in people with diabetes. AIMS: To determine whether the addition of complementary biomarker(s) to current NAFLD risk-stratification tools in people with T2D could improve the identification of people who are at increased risk of developing incident cirrhosis or HCC. METHODS: The Edinburgh Type 2 diabetes Study (ET2DS) is a cohort study of men and women with T2D (n = 1066, age 60-75 at baseline). Cases of cirrhosis and HCC were identified over 11 years of follow-up. Biomarkers were measured at baseline and year 1 and association with incident disease was assessed using logistic regression. RESULTS: Of existing risk-stratification scores tested, the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index and the AST:platelet ratio index (APRI) performed best in this cohort. Addition of hyaluronic acid (cut-point ≥ 50  µ  g/L) to FIB-4 (cut-point ≥ 1.3) maintained a false negative rate of ≤25% and reduced the number of people incorrectly identified as "high risk" for incident disease by ∼50%. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of hyaluronic acid to FIB-4 reduced the proportion of people inappropriately identified as "high risk" for development of cirrhosis/HCC in a community population of otherwise asymptomatic people with T2D. These findings require a validation in independent cohorts.

Cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) as a drug target for cardiovascular disease.

Development of cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) inhibitors for coronary heart disease (CHD) has yet to deliver licensed medicines. To distinguish compound from drug target failure, we compared evidence from clinical trials and drug target Mendelian randomization of CETP protein concentration, comparing this to Mendelian randomization of proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9). We show that previous failures of CETP inhibitors are likely compound related, as illustrated by significant degrees of between-compound heterogeneity in effects on lipids, blood pressure, and clinical outcomes observed in trials. On-target CETP inhibition, assessed through Mendelian randomization, is expected to reduce the risk of CHD, heart failure, diabetes, and chronic kidney disease, while increasing the risk of age-related macular degeneration. In contrast, lower PCSK9 concentration is anticipated to decrease the risk of CHD, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease, multiple sclerosis, and stroke, while potentially increasing the risk of Alzheimer's disease and asthma. Due to distinct effects on lipoprotein metabolite profiles, joint inhibition of CETP and PCSK9 may provide added benefit. In conclusion, we provide genetic evidence that CETP is an effective target for CHD prevention but with a potential on-target adverse effect on age-related macular degeneration.

Retinal arteriolar tortuosity and fractal dimension are associated with long-term cardiovascular outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Our aim was to determine whether quantitative retinal traits in people with type 2 diabetes are independently associated with incident major cardiovascular events including CHD and stroke. METHODS: A total of 1066 men and women with type 2 diabetes, aged 65-74 years, were followed up over 8 years in the population-based Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study. Using retinal photographs taken at baseline and specialist software, a number of quantitative retinal traits were measured, including arteriolar and venular widths and tortuosity as well as fractal dimension (a measure of the branching pattern complexity of the retinal vasculature network). Incident CHD events occurring during follow-up included fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction, first episodes of angina and coronary interventions for CHD. Incident cerebrovascular events included fatal and non-fatal stroke or transient ischaemic attack. Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were performed to identify the association of the retinal traits with cardiovascular events in the population with retinal data available (n = 1028). RESULTS: A total of 200 participants had an incident cardiovascular event (139 CHD and 61 cerebrovascular events). Following adjustment for age and sex, arteriolar tortuosity and fractal dimension were associated with cerebrovascular events (HR 1.27 [95% CI 1.02, 1.58] and HR 0.74 [95% CI 0.57, 0.95], respectively), including with stroke alone (HR 1.30 [95% CI 1.01, 1.66] and HR 0.73 [95% CI 0.56, 0.97], respectively). These associations persisted after further adjustment for established cardiovascular risk factors (HR 1.26 [95% CI 1.01, 1.58] and HR 0.73 [95% CI 0.56, 0.94], respectively). Associations generally reduced in strength after a final adjustment for the presence of diabetic retinopathy, but the association of fractal dimension with incident cerebrovascular events and stroke retained statistical significance (HR 0.73 [95% CI 0.57, 0.95] and HR 0.72 [95% CI 0.54, 0.97], respectively). Associations of retinal traits with CHD were generally weak and showed no evidence of statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Arteriolar tortuosity and fractal dimension were associated with incident cerebrovascular events, independent of a wide range of traditional cardiovascular risk factors including diabetic retinopathy. These findings suggest potential for measurements of early retinal vasculature change to aid in the identification of people with type 2 diabetes who are at increased risk from stroke.

Retinal venular tortuosity and fractal dimension predict incident retinopathy in adults with type 2 diabetes: the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Our aim was to determine whether a range of prespecified retinal vessel traits were associated with incident diabetic retinopathy in adults with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: In the prospective observational cohort Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study of 1066 adults with type 2 diabetes, aged 60-75 years at recruitment, 718 were free from diabetic retinopathy at baseline. Baseline retinal traits including vessel widths, tortuosity (curvature) and fractal dimensions (network complexity), were quantified using fundus camera images and semiautomated software, and analysed using logistic regression for their association with incident diabetic retinopathy over 10 years. RESULTS: The incidence of diabetic retinopathy was 11.4% (n = 82) over 10 years. After adjustment for a range of vascular and diabetes-related risk factors, both increased venular tortuosity (OR 1.51; 95% CI 1.15, 1.98; p = 0.003) and decreased fractal dimension (OR 0.75; 95% CI 0.58, 0.96; p = 0.025) were associated with incident retinopathy. There was no evidence of an association with arterial tortuosity, and associations between measurements of vessel widths and retinopathy lost statistical significance after adjustment for diabetes-related factors and vascular disease. Adding venular tortuosity to a model including established risk factors for diabetic retinopathy (HbA1c, BP and kidney function) improved the discriminative ability (C statistic increased from 0.624 to 0.640, p = 0.013), but no such benefit was found with fractal dimension. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Increased retinal venular tortuosity and decreased fractal dimension are associated with incident diabetic retinopathy, independent of classical risk factors. There is some evidence that venular tortuosity may be a useful biomarker to improve the predictive ability of models based on established retinopathy risk factors, and its inclusion in further risk prediction modelling is warranted.

Depression as a risk factor for dementia in older people with type 2 diabetes and the mediating effect of inflammation.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to determine the association of depression with dementia risk in people with type 2 diabetes, and to explore the possible mediating role of inflammation in this relationship. METHODS: The Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study is a prospective cohort of 1066 men and women with type 2 diabetes aged 60-75 years. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to investigate the association between depression, assessed at baseline, and subsequent risk of dementia over 10 years. Depression was defined using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, while incident dementia was defined using medical records, prescription data and death certificates. The potential mediating effect of systemic inflammation was assessed by adjusting models for a generalised inflammation factor, derived from four inflammatory markers measured at baseline (C-reactive protein, IL-6, TNF-α and fibrinogen), and carrying out an exploratory mediation analysis. RESULTS: Dementia developed in 105 participants over a median follow-up of 10.6 years. After adjusting for age and sex, depression was associated with over a 2.5-fold increase in risk of dementia (HR 2.59 [95% CI 1.62, 4.15]). Additional adjustment for the generalised inflammation factor and other covariates did not attenuate the size of association between depression and incident dementia and mediation analysis showed that it was not a mediator. Adjusted logistic regression models showed cross-sectional associations of C-reactive protein and IL-6 with depression. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Depression is an important risk factor for dementia in people with type 2 diabetes. Some inflammatory markers were associated with depression, but systemic inflammation does not appear to mediate the relationship between depression and dementia. Graphical abstract.

Non-invasive risk scores do not reliably identify future cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma in Type 2 diabetes: The Edinburgh type 2 diabetes study.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increased in Type 2 diabetes, primarily secondary to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). European guidelines recommend screening for NAFLD in Type 2 diabetes. American guidelines, while not advocating a screening protocol, suggest using non-invasive markers of fibrosis for risk-stratification and guiding onward referral. AIMS: To test the ability of individual fibrosis scores and the European screening algorithm to predict 11-year incident cirrhosis/HCC in an asymptomatic community cohort of older people with Type 2 diabetes. METHODS: The Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study investigated men and women with Type 2 diabetes (n = 1066, aged 60-75 at baseline). Liver markers were measured at baseline and year 1; steatosis and fibrosis markers were calculated according to independently published calculations. During 11 years of follow-up, cases of cirrhosis and HCC were identified. RESULTS: Forty-three out of 1059 participants with no baseline cirrhosis/HCC developed incident disease. All scores were significantly associated with incident liver disease by odds ratio (P < .05). The ability of the risk-stratification tools to accurately identify those who developed incident cirrhosis/HCC was poor with low-positive predictive values (5-46%) and high false-negative and -positive rates (up to 60% and 77%) respectively. When fibrosis risk scores were used in conjunction with the European algorithm, they performed modestly better than when applied in isolation. CONCLUSIONS: In a cohort with a moderately low incidence of cirrhosis/HCC, existing risk scores did not reliably identify participants at high risk. Better prediction models for cirrhosis/HCC in people with Type 2 diabetes are required.

The Prospective Studies of Atherosclerosis (Proof-ATHERO) Consortium: Design and Rationale.

Atherosclerosis - the pathophysiological mechanism shared by most cardiovascular diseases - can be directly or indirectly assessed by a variety of clinical tests including measurement of carotid intima-media thickness, carotid plaque, -ankle-brachial index, pulse wave velocity, and coronary -artery calcium. The Prospective Studies of Atherosclerosis -(Proof-ATHERO) consortium (https://clinicalepi.i-med.ac.at/research/proof-athero/) collates de-identified individual-participant data of studies with information on atherosclerosis measures, risk factors for cardiovascular disease, and incidence of cardiovascular diseases. It currently comprises 74 studies that involve 106,846 participants from 25 countries and over 40 cities. In summary, 21 studies recruited participants from the general population (n = 67,784), 16 from high-risk populations (n = 22,677), and 37 as part of clinical trials (n = 16,385). Baseline years of contributing studies range from April 1980 to July 2014; the latest follow-up was until June 2019. Mean age at baseline was 59 years (standard deviation: 10) and 50% were female. Over a total of 830,619 person-years of follow-up, 17,270 incident cardiovascular events (including coronary heart disease and stroke) and 13,270 deaths were recorded, corresponding to cumulative incidences of 2.1% and 1.6% per annum, respectively. The consortium is coordinated by the Clinical Epidemiology Team at the Medical University of Innsbruck, Austria. Contributing studies undergo a detailed data cleaning and harmonisation procedure before being incorporated in the Proof-ATHERO central database. Statistical analyses are being conducted according to pre-defined analysis plans and use established methods for individual-participant data meta-analysis. Capitalising on its large sample size, the multi-institutional collaborative Proof-ATHERO consortium aims to better characterise, understand, and predict the development of atherosclerosis and its clinical consequences.

Progression of conventional cardiovascular risk factors and vascular disease risk in individuals: insights from the PROG-IMT consortium.

AIMS: Averaged measurements, but not the progression based on multiple assessments of carotid intima-media thickness, (cIMT) are predictive of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in individuals. Whether this is true for conventional risk factors is unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: An individual participant meta-analysis was used to associate the annualised progression of systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol with future cardiovascular disease risk in 13 prospective cohort studies of the PROG-IMT collaboration (n = 34,072). Follow-up data included information on a combined cardiovascular disease endpoint of myocardial infarction, stroke, or vascular death. In secondary analyses, annualised progression was replaced with average. Log hazard ratios per standard deviation difference were pooled across studies by a random effects meta-analysis. In primary analysis, the annualised progression of total cholesterol was marginally related to a higher cardiovascular disease risk (hazard ratio (HR) 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00 to 1.07). The annualised progression of systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was not associated with future cardiovascular disease risk. In secondary analysis, average systolic blood pressure (HR 1.20 95% CI 1.11 to 1.29) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.16) were related to a greater, while high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.97) was related to a lower risk of future cardiovascular disease events. CONCLUSION: Averaged measurements of systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol displayed significant linear relationships with the risk of future cardiovascular disease events. However, there was no clear association between the annualised progression of these conventional risk factors in individuals with the risk of future clinical endpoints.

Phenome-wide association analysis of LDL-cholesterol lowering genetic variants in PCSK9.

BACKGROUND: We characterised the phenotypic consequence of genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus and compared findings with recent trials of pharmacological inhibitors of PCSK9. METHODS: Published and individual participant level data (300,000+ participants) were combined to construct a weighted PCSK9 gene-centric score (GS). Seventeen randomized placebo controlled PCSK9 inhibitor trials were included, providing data on 79,578 participants. Results were scaled to a one mmol/L lower LDL-C concentration. RESULTS: The PCSK9 GS (comprising 4 SNPs) associations with plasma lipid and apolipoprotein levels were consistent in direction with treatment effects. The GS odds ratio (OR) for myocardial infarction (MI) was 0.53 (95% CI 0.42; 0.68), compared to a PCSK9 inhibitor effect of 0.90 (95% CI 0.86; 0.93). For ischemic stroke ORs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.57; 1.22) for the GS, compared to 0.85 (95% CI 0.78; 0.93) in the drug trials. ORs with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were 1.29 (95% CI 1.11; 1.50) for the GS, as compared to 1.00 (95% CI 0.96; 1.04) for incident T2DM in PCSK9 inhibitor trials. No genetic associations were observed for cancer, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or Alzheimer's disease - outcomes for which large-scale trial data were unavailable. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus recapitulates the effects of therapeutic inhibition of PCSK9 on major blood lipid fractions and MI. While indicating an increased risk of T2DM, no other possible safety concerns were shown; although precision was moderate.

Decreased iron stores are associated with cardiovascular disease in patients with type 2 diabetes both cross-sectionally and longitudinally.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The possible contribution of iron to cardiovascular complications of type 2 diabetes (T2D) has been scarcely investigated. We aimed to study whether serum ferritin is linked to prevalent/incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in T2D. METHODS: The prevalence of coronary heart disease (CHD), cerebrovascular disease (CEVD) and CVD was evaluated in the SIDIAP study (n = 38,617) and prevalence and 7-year incidence were analysed in the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study (ET2DS) (n = 821). Logistic and Cox regressions were used to describe associations between serum ferritin and CVD adjusting for confounding variables. RESULTS: Increase of 1 SD unit in log-ferritin was associated with lower CVD prevalence in fully-adjusted models (ET2DS odds ratio (OR) 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.81 (0.68-0.96), p = 0.018; SIDIAP study: 0.91 (0.88-0.94), p < 0.001). In ET2DS, ferritin in the highest (vs. the lowest) quintile was associated with lower incidence of CVD (fully adjusted HR 95% CI: 0.46 (0.26-0.83), p = 0.010). This association persisted after removing subjects with CVD at baseline (n = 536) (HR 95% CI: 0.34 (0.14-0.81), p = 0.016). CONCLUSIONS: Low iron status was associated with CVD risk in T2D. This pattern was consistent in populations at different cardiovascular risk. Low iron status seems to be harmful for cardiovascular health in T2D and it may be a target for intervention.

Comparison of non-traditional biomarkers, and combinations of biomarkers, for vascular risk prediction in people with type 2 diabetes: The Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We aimed at comparing the impact of multiple non-traditional biomarkers (ankle brachial pressure index (ABI), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTnT), gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) and four markers of systemic inflammation), both individually and in combination, on cardiovascular risk prediction, over and above traditional risk factors incorporated in the QRISK2 score, in older people with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We conducted a prospective study of 1066 men and women aged 60-75 years with type 2 diabetes mellitus, living in Lothian, Scotland. RESULTS: After 8 years, 205 cardiovascular events occurred. Higher levels of hs-cTNT and NT-proBNP and lower ABI at baseline were associated with increased risk of CV events, independently of traditional risk factors (basic model). The C statistic of 0.722 (95% CI 0.681, 0.763) for the basic model increased on addition of individual biomarkers, most markedly for hs-cTnT (0.732; 0.690, 0.774)). Models including different combinations of biomarkers had even greater C statistics, with the highest for ABI, hs-cTnT and GGT combined (0.740; 0.699, 0.781). CONCLUSIONS: Individually, hs-cTnT appeared to be the most promising biomarker in terms of improving vascular risk prediction in people with type 2 diabetes, over and above traditional risk factors incorporated in the QRISK2 score. Combining several non-traditional biomarkers added further predictive value, and this approach merits further investigation when developing cost effective risk prediction tools for use in clinical practice.

Cardiovascular disease biomarkers are associated with declining renal function in type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We investigated whether biochemical cardiovascular risk factors and/or markers of subclinical cardiovascular disease were associated with the development of reduced renal function in people with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: A cohort of 1066 Scottish men and women aged 60-74 years with type 2 diabetes from the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study were followed up for a median of 6.7 years. New-onset reduced renal function was defined as two eGFRs <60 ml-1 min-1 (1.73 m)-2 at least 3 months apart with a > 25% decline from baseline eGFR. Ankle brachial pressure index (ABI), N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT) were measured at baseline. Pulse wave velocity (PWV) and carotid intima media thickness were measured 1 year into follow-up. Data were analysed using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: A total of 119 participants developed reduced renal function during follow-up. ABI, PWV, NT-proBNP and hsTnT were all associated with onset of decline in renal function following adjustment for age and sex. These associations were attenuated after adjustment for additional diabetes renal disease risk factors (systolic BP, baseline eGFR, albumin:creatinine ratio and smoking pack-years), with the exception of hsTnT which remained independently associated (HR 1.51 [95% CI 1.22, 1.87]). Inclusion of hsTnT in a predictive model improved the continuous net reclassification index by 0.165 (0.008, 0.286). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our findings demonstrate an association between hsTnT, a marker of subclinical cardiac ischaemia, and subsequent renal function decline. Further research is required to establish the predictive value of hsTnT and response to intervention.