Shared familial risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus and psychiatric disorders: a nationwide multigenerational genetics study.

BACKGROUND: Psychiatric disorders and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are heritable, polygenic, and often comorbid conditions, yet knowledge about their potential shared familial risk is lacking. We used family designs and T2DM polygenic risk score (T2DM-PRS) to investigate the genetic associations between psychiatric disorders and T2DM. METHODS: We linked 659 906 individuals born in Denmark 1990-2000 to their parents, grandparents, and aunts/uncles using population-based registers. We compared rates of T2DM in relatives of children with and without a diagnosis of any or one of 11 specific psychiatric disorders, including neuropsychiatric and neurodevelopmental disorders, using Cox regression. In a genotyped sample (iPSYCH2015) of individuals born 1981-2008 (n = 134 403), we used logistic regression to estimate associations between a T2DM-PRS and these psychiatric disorders. RESULTS: Among 5 235 300 relative pairs, relatives of individuals with a psychiatric disorder had an increased risk for T2DM with stronger associations for closer relatives (parents:hazard ratio = 1.38, 95% confidence interval 1.35-1.42; grandparents: 1.14, 1.13-1.15; and aunts/uncles: 1.19, 1.16-1.22). In the genetic sample, one standard deviation increase in T2DM-PRS was associated with an increased risk for any psychiatric disorder (odds ratio = 1.11, 1.08-1.14). Both familial T2DM and T2DM-PRS were significantly associated with seven of 11 psychiatric disorders, most strongly with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and conduct disorder, and inversely with anorexia nervosa. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings of familial co-aggregation and higher T2DM polygenic liability associated with psychiatric disorders point toward shared familial risk. This suggests that part of the comorbidity is explained by shared familial risks. The underlying mechanisms still remain largely unknown and the contributions of genetics and environment need further investigation.

Diagnosed eating disorders in Danish registers - incidence, prevalence, mortality, and polygenic risk.

Eating disorders are a group of severe and potentially enduring psychiatric disorders associated with increased mortality. Compared to other severe mental illnesses, they have received relatively limited research attention. Epidemiological studies often only report relative measures despite these being difficult to interpret having limited practical use. The aims of this study were to evaluate the incidence and prevalence of diagnosed anorexia nervosa (AN), bulimia nervosa, and eating disorder not otherwise specified recorded in Danish hospital registers and estimate both relative and absolute measures of subsequent mortality - both all-cause and cause-specific in a general nationwide population of 1,667,374 individuals. In a smaller, genetically informed case-cohort sample, the prediction of polygenic scores for AN, body fat percentage, and body mass index on AN prevalence and severity was estimated. Despite males being less likely to be diagnosed with an eating disorder, those that do have significantly increased rates of mortality. AN prevalence was highest for individuals with high AN and low body fat percentage/body mass index polygenic scores.

Phenomewide Association Study of Health Outcomes Associated With the Genetic Correlates of 25 Hydroxyvitamin D Concentration and Vitamin D Binding Protein Concentration.

While it is known that vitamin D deficiency is associated with adverse bone outcomes, it remains unclear whether low vitamin D status may increase the risk of a wider range of health outcomes. We had the opportunity to explore the association between common genetic variants associated with both 25 hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) and the vitamin D binding protein (DBP, encoded by the GC gene) with a comprehensive range of health disorders and laboratory tests in a large academic medical center. We used summary statistics for 25OHD and DBP to generate polygenic scores (PGS) for 66,482 participants with primarily European ancestry and 13,285 participants with primarily African ancestry from the Vanderbilt University Medical Center Biobank (BioVU). We examined the predictive properties of PGS25OHD, and two scores related to DBP concentration with respect to 1322 health-related phenotypes and 315 laboratory-measured phenotypes from electronic health records. In those with European ancestry: (a) the PGS25OHD and PGSDBP scores, and individual SNPs rs4588 and rs7041 were associated with both 25OHD concentration and 1,25 dihydroxyvitamin D concentrations; (b) higher PGS25OHD was associated with decreased concentrations of triglycerides and cholesterol, and reduced risks of vitamin D deficiency, disorders of lipid metabolism, and diabetes. In general, the findings for the African ancestry group were consistent with findings from the European ancestry analyses. Our study confirms the utility of PGS and two key variants within the GC gene (rs4588 and rs7041) to predict the risk of vitamin D deficiency in clinical settings and highlights the shared biology between vitamin D-related genetic pathways a range of health outcomes.

Towards fair and clinically relevant polygenic predictions.

Lennon et al. recently proposed a clinical polygenic score (PGS) pipeline as part of the Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) network initiative. In this spotlight article we discuss the broader context for the use of PGS in preventive medicine and highlight key limitations and challenges facing their inclusion in prediction models.

Impact of genetic, sociodemographic, and clinical features on antidepressant treatment trajectories in the perinatal period.

Pregnant women on antidepressants must balance potential fetal harm with the relapse risk. While various clinical and sociodemographic factors are known to influence treatment decisions, the impact of genetic factors remains unexplored. We conducted a cohort study among 2,316 women with diagnosed affective disorders who had redeemed antidepressant prescriptions six months before pregnancy, identified from the Danish Integrated Psychiatric Research study. We calculated polygenic risk scores (PGSs) for major depression (MDD), bipolar disorder (BD), and schizophrenia (SCZ) using individual-level genetic data and summary statistics from genome-wide association studies. We retrieved data on sociodemographic and clinical features from national registers. Applying group-based trajectory modeling, we identified four treatment trajectories across pregnancy and postpartum: Continuers (38.2 %), early discontinuers (22.7 %), late discontinuers (23.8 %), and interrupters (15.3 %). All three PGSs were not associated with treatment trajectories; for instance, the relative risk ratio for continuers versus early discontinuers was 0.93 (95 % CI: 0.81-1.06), 0.98 (0.84-1.13), 1.09 (0.95-1.27) for per 1-SD increase in PGS for MDD, BD, and SCZ, respectively. Sociodemographic factors were generally not associated with treatment trajectories, except for the association between primiparity and continuing antidepressant use. Women who received ≥2 classes or a higher dose of antidepressants had a higher probability of being late discontinuers, interrupters, and continuers. The likelihood of continuing antidepressants or restarting antidepressants postpartum increased with the previous antidepressant treatment duration. Our findings indicate that continued antidepressant use during pregnancy is influenced by the severity of the disease rather than genetic predisposition as measured by PGSs.

Interplay of polygenic liability with birth-related, somatic, and psychosocial factors in anorexia nervosa risk: a nationwide study.

BACKGROUND: Although several types of risk factors for anorexia nervosa (AN) have been identified, including birth-related factors, somatic, and psychosocial risk factors, their interplay with genetic susceptibility remains unclear. Genetic and epidemiological interplay in AN risk were examined using data from Danish nationwide registers. AN polygenic risk score (PRS) and risk factor associations, confounding from AN PRS and/or parental psychiatric history on the association between the risk factors and AN risk, and interactions between AN PRS and each level of target risk factor on AN risk were estimated. METHODS: Participants were individuals born in Denmark between 1981 and 2008 including nationwide-representative data from the iPSYCH2015, and Danish AN cases from the Anorexia Nervosa Genetics Initiative and Eating Disorder Genetics Initiative cohorts. A total of 7003 individuals with AN and 45 229 individuals without a registered AN diagnosis were included. We included 22 AN risk factors from Danish registers. RESULTS: Risk factors showing association with PRS for AN included urbanicity, parental ages, genitourinary tract infection, and parental socioeconomic factors. Risk factors showed the expected association to AN risk, and this association was only slightly attenuated when adjusted for parental history of psychiatric disorders or/and for the AN PRS. The interaction analyses revealed a differential effect of AN PRS according to the level of the following risk factors: sex, maternal age, genitourinary tract infection, C-section, parental socioeconomic factors and psychiatric history. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide evidence for interactions between AN PRS and certain risk-factors, illustrating potential diverse risk pathways to AN diagnosis.

Distinguishing different psychiatric disorders using DDx-PRS.

Despite great progress on methods for case-control polygenic prediction (e.g. schizophrenia vs. control), there remains an unmet need for a method that genetically distinguishes clinically related disorders (e.g. schizophrenia (SCZ) vs. bipolar disorder (BIP) vs. depression (MDD) vs. control); such a method could have important clinical value, especially at disorder onset when differential diagnosis can be challenging. Here, we introduce a method, Differential Diagnosis-Polygenic Risk Score (DDx-PRS), that jointly estimates posterior probabilities of each possible diagnostic category (e.g. SCZ=50%, BIP=25%, MDD=15%, control=10%) by modeling variance/covariance structure across disorders, leveraging case-control polygenic risk scores (PRS) for each disorder (computed using existing methods) and prior clinical probabilities for each diagnostic category. DDx-PRS uses only summary-level training data and does not use tuning data, facilitating implementation in clinical settings. In simulations, DDx-PRS was well-calibrated (whereas a simpler approach that analyzes each disorder marginally was poorly calibrated), and effective in distinguishing each diagnostic category vs. the rest. We then applied DDx-PRS to Psychiatric Genomics Consortium SCZ/BIP/MDD/control data, including summary-level training data from 3 case-control GWAS ( N =41,917-173,140 cases; total N =1,048,683) and held-out test data from different cohorts with equal numbers of each diagnostic category (total N =11,460). DDx-PRS was well-calibrated and well-powered relative to these training sample sizes, attaining AUCs of 0.66 for SCZ vs. rest, 0.64 for BIP vs. rest, 0.59 for MDD vs. rest, and 0.68 for control vs. rest. DDx-PRS produced comparable results to methods that leverage tuning data, confirming that DDx-PRS is an effective method. True diagnosis probabilities in top deciles of predicted diagnosis probabilities were considerably larger than prior baseline probabilities, particularly in projections to larger training sample sizes, implying considerable potential for clinical utility under certain circumstances. In conclusion, DDx-PRS is an effective method for distinguishing clinically related disorders.

Polygenic Risk of Mental Disorders and Subject-Specific School Grades.

BACKGROUND: Education is essential for socioeconomic security and long-term mental health; however, mental disorders are often detrimental to the educational trajectory. Genetic correlations between mental disorders and educational attainment do not always align with corresponding phenotypic associations, implying heterogeneity in the genetic overlap. METHODS: We unraveled this heterogeneity by investigating associations between polygenic risk scores for 6 mental disorders and fine-grained school outcomes: school grades in language and mathematics in ninth grade and high school, as well as educational attainment by age 25, using nationwide-representative data from established cohorts (N = 79,489). RESULTS: High polygenic liability of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder was associated with lower grades in language and mathematics, whereas high polygenic risk of anorexia nervosa or bipolar disorder was associated with higher grades in language and mathematics. Associations between polygenic risk and school grades were mixed for schizophrenia and major depressive disorder and neutral for autism spectrum disorder. CONCLUSIONS: Polygenic risk scores for mental disorders are differentially associated with language and mathematics school grades.

The correlates of neonatal complement component 3 and 4 protein concentrations with a focus on psychiatric and autoimmune disorders.

Complement components have been linked to schizophrenia and autoimmune disorders. We examined the association between neonatal circulating C3 and C4 protein concentrations in 68,768 neonates and the risk of six mental disorders. We completed genome-wide association studies (GWASs) for C3 and C4 and applied the summary statistics in Mendelian randomization and phenome-wide association studies related to mental and autoimmune disorders. The GWASs for C3 and C4 protein concentrations identified 15 and 36 independent loci, respectively. We found no associations between neonatal C3 and C4 concentrations and mental disorders in the total sample (both sexes combined); however, post-hoc analyses found that a higher C3 concentration was associated with a reduced risk of schizophrenia in females. Mendelian randomization based on C4 summary statistics found an altered risk of five types of autoimmune disorders. Our study adds to our understanding of the associations between C3 and C4 concentrations and subsequent mental and autoimmune disorders.

Inferring disease architecture and predictive ability with LDpred2-auto.

LDpred2 is a widely used Bayesian method for building polygenic scores (PGSs). LDpred2-auto can infer the two parameters from the LDpred model, the SNP heritability h2 and polygenicity p, so that it does not require an additional validation dataset to choose best-performing parameters. The main aim of this paper is to properly validate the use of LDpred2-auto for inferring multiple genetic parameters. Here, we present a new version of LDpred2-auto that adds an optional third parameter α to its model, for modeling negative selection. We then validate the inference of these three parameters (or two, when using the previous model). We also show that LDpred2-auto provides per-variant probabilities of being causal that are well calibrated and can therefore be used for fine-mapping purposes. We also introduce a formula to infer the out-of-sample predictive performance r2 of the resulting PGS directly from the Gibbs sampler of LDpred2-auto. Finally, we extend the set of HapMap3 variants recommended to use with LDpred2 with 37% more variants to improve the coverage of this set, and we show that this new set of variants captures 12% more heritability and provides 6% more predictive performance, on average, in UK Biobank analyses.

Postpartum and non-postpartum depression: a population-based matched case-control study comparing polygenic risk scores for severe mental disorders.

It remains inconclusive whether postpartum depression (PPD) and depression with onset outside the postpartum period (MDD) are genetically distinct disorders. We aimed to investigate whether polygenic risk scores (PGSs) for major mental disorders differ between PPD cases and MDD cases in a nested case-control study of 50,057 women born from 1981 to 1997 in the iPSYCH2015 sample in Demark. We identified 333 women with first-onset postpartum depression (PPD group), who were matched with 993 women with first-onset depression diagnosed outside of postpartum (MDD group), and 999 female population controls. Data on genetics and depressive disorders were retrieved from neonatal biobanks and the Psychiatric Central Research Register. PGSs were calculated from both individual-level genetic data and meta-analysis summary statistics from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium. Conditional logistic regression was used to calculate the odds ratio (OR), accounting for the selection-related reproductive behavior. After adjustment for covariates, higher PGSs for severe mental disorders were associated with increased ORs of both PPD and MDD. Compared with MDD cases, MDD PGS and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder PGS were marginally but not statistically higher for PPD cases, with the OR of PPD versus MDD being 1.12 (95% CI: 0 .97-1.29) and 1.11 (0.97-1.27) per-standard deviation increase, respectively. The ORs of PPD versus MDD did not statistically differ by PGSs of bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, or autism spectrum disorder. Our findings suggest that relying on PGS data, there was no clear evidence of distinct genetic make-up of women with depression occurring during or outside postpartum, after taking the selection-related reproductive behavior into account.

ADuLT: An efficient and robust time-to-event GWAS.

Proportional hazards models have been proposed to analyse time-to-event phenotypes in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, little is known about the ability of proportional hazards models to identify genetic associations under different generative models and when ascertainment is present. Here we propose the age-dependent liability threshold (ADuLT) model as an alternative to a Cox regression based GWAS, here represented by SPACox. We compare ADuLT, SPACox, and standard case-control GWAS in simulations under two generative models and with varying degrees of ascertainment as well as in the iPSYCH cohort. We find Cox regression GWAS to be underpowered when cases are strongly ascertained (cases are oversampled by a factor 5), regardless of the generative model used. ADuLT is robust to ascertainment in all simulated scenarios. Then, we analyse four psychiatric disorders in iPSYCH, ADHD, Autism, Depression, and Schizophrenia, with a strong case-ascertainment. Across these psychiatric disorders, ADuLT identifies 20 independent genome-wide significant associations, case-control GWAS finds 17, and SPACox finds 8, which is consistent with simulation results. As more genetic data are being linked to electronic health records, robust GWAS methods that can make use of age-of-onset information will help increase power in analyses for common health outcomes.

Multi-PGS enhances polygenic prediction by combining 937 polygenic scores.

The predictive performance of polygenic scores (PGS) is largely dependent on the number of samples available to train the PGS. Increasing the sample size for a specific phenotype is expensive and takes time, but this sample size can be effectively increased by using genetically correlated phenotypes. We propose a framework to generate multi-PGS from thousands of publicly available genome-wide association studies (GWAS) with no need to individually select the most relevant ones. In this study, the multi-PGS framework increases prediction accuracy over single PGS for all included psychiatric disorders and other available outcomes, with prediction R2 increases of up to 9-fold for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder compared to a single PGS. We also generate multi-PGS for phenotypes without an existing GWAS and for case-case predictions. We benchmark the multi-PGS framework against other methods and highlight its potential application to new emerging biobanks.

Depression pathophysiology, risk prediction of recurrence and comorbid psychiatric disorders using genome-wide analyses.

Depression is a common psychiatric disorder and a leading cause of disability worldwide. Here we conducted a genome-wide association study meta-analysis of six datasets, including >1.3 million individuals (371,184 with depression) and identified 243 risk loci. Overall, 64 loci were new, including genes encoding glutamate and GABA receptors, which are targets for antidepressant drugs. Intersection with functional genomics data prioritized likely causal genes and revealed new enrichment of prenatal GABAergic neurons, astrocytes and oligodendrocyte lineages. We found depression to be highly polygenic, with ~11,700 variants explaining 90% of the single-nucleotide polymorphism heritability, estimating that >95% of risk variants for other psychiatric disorders (anxiety, schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder) were influencing depression risk when both concordant and discordant variants were considered, and nearly all depression risk variants influenced educational attainment. Additionally, depression genetic risk was associated with impaired complex cognition domains. We dissected the genetic and clinical heterogeneity, revealing distinct polygenic architectures across subgroups of depression and demonstrating significantly increased absolute risks for recurrence and psychiatric comorbidity among cases of depression with the highest polygenic burden, with considerable sex differences. The risks were up to 5- and 32-fold higher than cases with the lowest polygenic burden and the background population, respectively. These results deepen the understanding of the biology underlying depression, its disease progression and inform precision medicine approaches to treatment.

Risk factors for anorexia nervosa: A population-based investigation of sex differences in polygenic risk and early life exposures.

OBJECTIVE: To examine sex differences in risk factors for anorexia nervosa (AN). METHOD: This population-based study involved 44,743 individuals (6,239 AN cases including 5,818 females and 421 males, and 38,504 controls including 18,818 females and 19,686 males) born in Denmark between May 1981 and December 2009. Follow-up began on the individual's sixth birthday and ended at AN diagnosis, emigration, death, or December 31, 2016, whichever occurred first. Exposures included socioeconomic status (SES), pregnancy, birth, and early childhood factors based on data from Danish registers, and psychiatric and metabolic polygenic risk scores (PRS) based on genetic data. Hazard ratios were estimated using weighted Cox proportional hazards models stratified by sex (assigned at birth), with AN diagnosis as the outcome. RESULTS: The effects of early life exposures and PRS on AN risk were comparable between females and males. Although we observed some differences in the magnitude and direction of effects, there were no significant interactions between sex and SES, pregnancy, birth, or early childhood exposures. The effects of most PRS on AN risk were highly similar between the sexes. We observed significant sex-specific effects of parental psychiatric history and body mass index PRS, though these effects did not survive corrections for multiple comparisons. CONCLUSIONS: Risk factors for AN are comparable between females and males. Collaboration across countries with large registers is needed to further investigate sex-specific effects of genetic, biological, and environmental exposures on AN risk, including exposures in later childhood and adolescence as well as the additive effects of exposures. PUBLIC SIGNIFICANCE: Sex differences in the prevalence and clinical presentation of AN warrant examination of sex-specific risk factors. This population-based study indicates that the effects of polygenic risk and early life exposures on AN risk are comparable between females and males. Collaboration between countries with large registers is needed to further investigate sex-specific AN risk factors and improve early identification of AN.

Polygenic scoring accuracy varies across the genetic ancestry continuum.

Polygenic scores (PGSs) have limited portability across different groupings of individuals (for example, by genetic ancestries and/or social determinants of health), preventing their equitable use1-3. PGS portability has typically been assessed using a single aggregate population-level statistic (for example, R2)4, ignoring inter-individual variation within the population. Here, using a large and diverse Los Angeles biobank5 (ATLAS, n = 36,778) along with the UK Biobank6 (UKBB, n = 487,409), we show that PGS accuracy decreases individual-to-individual along the continuum of genetic ancestries7 in all considered populations, even within traditionally labelled 'homogeneous' genetic ancestries. The decreasing trend is well captured by a continuous measure of genetic distance (GD) from the PGS training data: Pearson correlation of -0.95 between GD and PGS accuracy averaged across 84 traits. When applying PGS models trained on individuals labelled as white British in the UKBB to individuals with European ancestries in ATLAS, individuals in the furthest GD decile have 14% lower accuracy relative to the closest decile; notably, the closest GD decile of individuals with Hispanic Latino American ancestries show similar PGS performance to the furthest GD decile of individuals with European ancestries. GD is significantly correlated with PGS estimates themselves for 82 of 84 traits, further emphasizing the importance of incorporating the continuum of genetic ancestries in PGS interpretation. Our results highlight the need to move away from discrete genetic ancestry clusters towards the continuum of genetic ancestries when considering PGSs.

Deep integrative models for large-scale human genomics.

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are expected to play a critical role in precision medicine. Currently, PRS predictors are generally based on linear models using summary statistics, and more recently individual-level data. However, these predictors mainly capture additive relationships and are limited in data modalities they can use. We developed a deep learning framework (EIR) for PRS prediction which includes a model, genome-local-net (GLN), specifically designed for large-scale genomics data. The framework supports multi-task learning, automatic integration of other clinical and biochemical data, and model explainability. When applied to individual-level data from the UK Biobank, the GLN model demonstrated a competitive performance compared to established neural network architectures, particularly for certain traits, showcasing its potential in modeling complex genetic relationships. Furthermore, the GLN model outperformed linear PRS methods for Type 1 Diabetes, likely due to modeling non-additive genetic effects and epistasis. This was supported by our identification of widespread non-additive genetic effects and epistasis in the context of T1D. Finally, we constructed PRS models that integrated genotype, blood, urine, and anthropometric data and found that this improved performance for 93% of the 290 diseases and disorders considered. EIR is available at https://github.com/arnor-sigurdsson/EIR.