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In cancer research, basket trials aim to assess the efficacy of a drug using baskets, wherein patients are organized into subgroups according to their tumor type. In this context, using information borrowing strategy may increase the probability of detecting drug efficacy in active baskets, by shrinking together the estimates of the parameters characterizing the drug efficacy in baskets with similar drug activity. Here, we propose to use fusion-penalized logistic regression models to borrow information in the setting of a phase 2 single-arm basket trial with binary outcome. We describe our proposed strategy and assess its performance via a simulation study. We assessed the impact of heterogeneity in drug efficacy, prevalence of each tumor types and implementation of interim analyses on the operating characteristics of our proposed design. We compared our approach with two existing designs, relying on the specification of prior information in a Bayesian framework to borrow information across similar baskets. Notably, our approach performed well when the effect of the drug varied greatly across the baskets. Our approach offers several advantages, including limited implementation efforts and fast computation, which is essential when planning a new trial as such planning requires intensive simulation studies.
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Interim analysis is a common methodology in randomised clinical trials but has received less attention in studies of diagnostic test accuracy. In such studies, early termination for futility may be beneficial if early evidence indicates that a diagnostic test is unlikely to achieve a clinically useful level of diagnostic performance, as measured by the sensitivity and specificity. In this paper, we describe relevant practical and analytical considerations when planning and performing interim analysis in diagnostic accuracy studies, focusing on stopping rules for futility. We present an adaptation of the exact group sequential method for diagnostic testing, with R code provided for implementing this method in practice. The method is illustrated using two simulated data sets and data from a published diagnostic accuracy study for point-of-care testing for SARS-CoV-2. The considerations described in this paper can be used to guide decisions as to when an interim analysis in a diagnostic accuracy study is suitable and highlight areas for further methodological development.
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Adaptive platform trials allow treatments to be added or dropped during the study, meaning that the control arm may be active for longer than the experimental arms. This leads to nonconcurrent controls, which provide nonrandomized information that may increase efficiency but may introduce bias from temporal confounding and other factors. Various methods have been proposed to control confounding from nonconcurrent controls, based on adjusting for time period. We demonstrate that time adjustment is insufficient to prevent bias in some circumstances where nonconcurrent controls are present in adaptive platform trials, and we propose a more general analytical framework that accounts for nonconcurrent controls in such circumstances. We begin by defining nonconcurrent controls using the concept of a concurrently randomized cohort, which is a subgroup of participants all subject to the same randomized design. We then use cohort adjustment rather than time adjustment. Due to flexibilities in platform trials, more than one randomized design may be in force at any time, meaning that cohort-adjusted and time-adjusted analyses may be quite different. Using simulation studies, we demonstrate that time-adjusted analyses may be biased while cohort-adjusted analyses remove this bias. We also demonstrate that the cohort-adjusted analysis may be interpreted as a synthesis of randomized and indirect comparisons analogous to mixed treatment comparisons in network meta-analysis. This allows the use of network meta-analysis methodology to separate the randomized and nonrandomized components and to assess their consistency. Whenever nonconcurrent controls are used in platform trials, the separate randomized and indirect contributions to the treatment effect should be presented.
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Biometria , Humanos , Biometria/métodos , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como AssuntoRESUMO
Interfacial chemistry plays a crucial role in determining the electrochemical properties of low-temperature rechargeable batteries. Although existing interface engineering has significantly improved the capacity of rechargeable batteries operating at low temperatures, challenges such as sharp voltage drops and poor high-rate discharge capabilities continue to limit their applications in extreme environments. In this study, an energy-level-adaptive design strategy for electrolytes to regulate interfacial chemistry in low-temperature Li||graphite dual-ion batteries (DIBs) is proposed. This strategy enables the construction of robust interphases with superior ion-transfer kinetics. On the graphite cathode, the design endues the cathode interface with solvent/anion-coupled interfacial chemistry, which yields an nitrogen/phosphor/sulfur/fluorin (N/P/S/F)-containing organic-rich interphase to boost anion-transfer kinetics and maintains excellent interfacial stability. On the Li metal anode, the anion-derived interfacial chemistry promotes the formation of an inorganic-dominant LiF-rich interphase, which effectively suppresses Li dendrite growth and improves the Li plating/stripping kinetics at low temperatures. Consequently, the DIBs can operate within a wide temperature range, spanning from -40 to 45 °C. At -40 °C, the DIB exhibits exceptional performance, delivering 97.4% of its room-temperature capacity at 1 C and displaying an extraordinarily high-rate discharge capability with 62.3% capacity retention at 10 C. This study demonstrates a feasible strategy for the development of high-power and low-temperature rechargeable batteries.
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BACKGROUND: New therapeutics in oncology have presented challenges to existing paradigms and trial designs in all phases of drug development. As a motivating example, we considered an ongoing phase II trial planned to evaluate the combination of a MET inhibitor and an anti-PD-L1 immunotherapy to treat advanced oesogastric carcinoma. The objective of the paper was to exemplify the planning of an adaptive phase II trial with novel anti-cancer agents, including prolonged observation windows and joint sequential evaluation of efficacy and toxicity. METHODS: We considered various candidate designs and computed decision rules assuming correlations between efficacy and toxicity. Simulations were conducted to evaluate the operating characteristics of all designs. RESULTS: Design approaches allowing continuous accrual, such as the time-to-event Bayesian Optimal Phase II design (TOP), showed good operating characteristics while ensuring a reduced trial duration. All designs were sensitive to the specification of the correlation between efficacy and toxicity during planning, but TOP can take that correlation into account more easily. CONCLUSIONS: While specifying design working hypotheses requires caution, Bayesian approaches such as the TOP design had desirable operating characteristics and allowed incorporating concomittant information, such as toxicity data from concomitant observations in another relevant patient population (e.g., defined by mutational status).
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Teorema de Bayes , Projetos de Pesquisa , Humanos , Ensaios Clínicos Fase II como Assunto/métodos , Neoplasias do Sistema Digestório/tratamento farmacológico , Imunoterapia/métodos , Antineoplásicos/uso terapêutico , Simulação por ComputadorRESUMO
In this paper, we propose a new Bayesian adaptive design, score-goldilocks design, which has the same algorithmic idea as goldilocks design. The score-goldilocks design leads to a uniform formula for calculating the probability of trial success for different endpoint trials by using the normal approximation. The simulation results show that the score-goldilocks design is not only very similar to the goldilocks design in terms of operating characteristics such as type 1 error, power, average sample size, probability of stop for futility, and probability of early stop for success, but also greatly saves the calculation time and improves the operation efficiency.
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Recently, interest has grown in the development of dose-finding methods that consider both toxicity and efficacy as endpoints. Along with responses on these, the incorporation of pharmacokinetic (PK) data can be beneficial in terms of patients' safety and can also increase the efficiency of the design for finding the best dose for the next phase. In this paper, the maximum concentration (Cmax) is used as the PK measure guiding the dose selection. The ethically attractive approach, which is based on the probability of efficacy, is used as a dose optimisation criterion. At each stage of an adaptive trial, that dose is selected for which the criterion is maximised, subject to the constraints imposed on the Cmax and the probability of toxicity. The inter-patient variability of the PK model parameters is considered, and population D-optimal sampling time points for measuring the concentration of a drug in the blood are calculated. The method is illustrated with a one-compartment PK model with first-order absorption, with the parameters being assumed to be random. The Cox model for bivariate binary responses is employed to model the dose-response outcomes. The results of a simulation study for several plausible dose-response scenarios show a significant gain in the efficiency of the design, as well as a reduction in the proportion of toxic responses.
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We propose a Cross-validated ADaptive ENrichment design (CADEN) in which a trial population is enriched with a subpopulation of patients who are predicted to benefit from the treatment more than an average patient (the sensitive group). This subpopulation is found using a risk score constructed from the baseline (potentially high-dimensional) information about patients. The design incorporates an early stopping rule for futility. Simulation studies are used to assess the properties of CADEN against the original (non-enrichment) cross-validated risk scores (CVRS) design which constructs a risk score at the end of the trial. We show that when there exists a sensitive group of patients, CADEN achieves a higher power and a reduction in the expected sample size compared to the CVRS design. We illustrate the application of the design in two real clinical trials. We conclude that the new design offers improved statistical efficiency over the existing non-enrichment method, as well as increased benefit to patients. The method has been implemented in an R package caden.
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Projetos de Pesquisa , Humanos , Tamanho da Amostra , Medição de Risco/métodos , Simulação por Computador , Seleção de PacientesRESUMO
Delayed outcome is common in phase I oncology clinical trials. It causes logistic difficulty, wastes resources, and prolongs the trial duration. This article investigates this issue and proposes the time-to-event 3 + 3 (T3 + 3) design, which utilizes the actual follow-up time for at-risk patients with pending toxicity outcomes. The T3 + 3 design allows continuous accrual without unnecessary trial suspension and is costless and implementable with pretabulated dose decision rules. Besides, the T3 + 3 design uses the isotonic regression to estimate the toxicity rates across dose levels and therefore can accommodate for any targeted toxicity rate for maximum tolerated dose (MTD). It dramatically facilitates the trial preparation and conduct without intensive computation and statistical consultation. The extension to other algorithm-based phase I dose-finding designs (e.g., i3 + 3 design) is also studied. Comprehensive computer simulation studies are conducted to investigate the performance of the T3 + 3 design under various dose-toxicity scenarios. The results confirm that the T3 + 3 design substantially shortens the trial duration compared with the conventional 3 + 3 design and yields much higher accuracy in MTD identification than the rolling six design. In summary, the T3 + 3 design addresses the delayed outcome issue while keeping the desirable features of the 3 + 3 design, such as simplicity, transparency, and costless implementation. It has great potential to accelerate early-phase drug development.
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Adaptive randomized clinical trials are of major interest when dealing with a time-to-event outcome in a prolonged observation window. No consensus exists either to define stopping boundaries or to combine p $$ p $$ values or test statistics in the terminal analysis in the case of a frequentist design and sample size adaptation. In a one-sided setting, we compared three frequentist approaches using stopping boundaries relying on α $$ \alpha $$ -spending functions and a Bayesian monitoring setting with boundaries based on the posterior distribution of the log-hazard ratio. All designs comprised a single interim analysis with an efficacy stopping rule and the possibility of sample size adaptation at this interim step. Three frequentist approaches were defined based on the terminal analysis: combination of stagewise statistics (Wassmer) or of p $$ p $$ values (Desseaux), or on patientwise splitting (Jörgens), and we compared the results with those of the Bayesian monitoring approach (Freedman). These different approaches were evaluated in a simulation study and then illustrated on a real dataset from a randomized clinical trial conducted in elderly patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia. All approaches controlled for the type I error rate, except for the Bayesian monitoring approach, and yielded satisfactory power. It appears that the frequentist approaches are the best in underpowered trials. The power of all the approaches was affected by the violation of the proportional hazards (PH) assumption. For adaptive designs with a survival endpoint and a one-sided alternative hypothesis, the Wassmer and Jörgens approaches after sample size adaptation should be preferred, unless violation of PH is suspected.
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Teorema de Bayes , Simulação por Computador , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , Humanos , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto/estatística & dados numéricos , Tamanho da Amostra , Projetos de Pesquisa , Determinação de Ponto Final , Leucemia Linfocítica Crônica de Células B/tratamento farmacológico , Modelos EstatísticosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The use of adaptive designs in cancer trials has considerably increased worldwide in recent years, along with the release of various guidelines for their application. This systematic review aims to comprehensively summarize the key methodological and executive features of adaptive designs in cancer clinical trials. METHODS: A comprehensive search from PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials was conducted to screen eligible clinical trials that employed adaptive designs and were conducted in cancer patients. The methodological and executive characteristics of adaptive designs were the main measurements extracted. Descriptive analyses, primarily consisting of frequency and percentage, were employed to analyzed and reported the data. RESULTS: A total of 180 cancer clinical trials with adaptive designs were identified. The first three most common type of adaptive design was the group sequential design (n=114, 63.3â¯%), adaptive dose-finding design (n=22, 12.2â¯%), and adaptive platform design (n=16, 8.9â¯%). The results showed that 4.4â¯% (n=8) of trials conducted post hoc modifications, and around 29.4â¯% (n=53) did not provide the methods for controlling type I errors. Among phase II or above trials, 79.9â¯% (112/140) applied the surrogate endpoint as the primary outcome in these trials. Importantly, 27.2â¯% (49/180) of trials did not report clear information on the independent data monitoring committee (iDMC), and 13.3â¯% (n=24) without clear information on interim analyses. Interim analyses suggested 34.4â¯% (62/180) of trials being stopped for futility, 10.6â¯% (n=19) for efficacy, and 2.2â¯% (n=4) for safety concerns in the early stage. CONCLUSIONS: This study emphasizes adaptive designs in cancer trials face significant challenges in their design or strict implementation according to protocol, which might significantly compromise the validity and integrity of trials. It is thus important for researchers, sponsors, and policymakers to actively oversee and guide their application.
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Ensaios Clínicos como Assunto , Neoplasias , Projetos de Pesquisa , Humanos , Neoplasias/terapia , Neoplasias/tratamento farmacológicoRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Although oncology has seen large scientific and clinical advances over the last decade, it also has one of the lowest success rates for novel agents across therapeutic areas. Adaptive clinical trial design has been a popular option for increasing clinical trial efficiency and the chances of trial success. Seamless clinical trial design are studies in which two or more clinical trial phases are combined into a single study with a pre-specified transition between stages. This integration of phases may enhance efficiency. METHODS: To understand the precedent for the use of seamless designs, this working group was formed to conduct a comprehensive literature search on seamless clinical trials conducted with confirmatory intent in oncology. Trial design features were extracted into a database and analyzed with descriptive statistics. RESULTS: A literature search identified 68 clinical trials meeting inclusion and exclusion criteria. The most common design feature was a gate on treatment efficacy, where the trial would only proceed to the second stage if sufficient efficacy was observed in the first. The next most common feature was a selection of a dose or treatment regimen. Inferentially and operationally seamless designs were approximately equally represented. DISCUSSION: Key statistical considerations for seamless phase II/III designs include optimizing design choices by evaluating and comparing operating characteristics across design alternatives as well as showing control of overall Type I error rates. Executing the transition between phases should be evaluated for issues related to accrual, drug production, and procedures to maintain trial integrity. CONCLUSIONS: While there are unique statistical, regulatory, and operational considerations for seamless designs they are also uniquely suited to many development settings. These include, for example, addressing dose selection under FDA's Project Optimus and addressing the growing use of biomarkers and personalized medicine approaches in cancer treatment.
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Neoplasias , Projetos de Pesquisa , Humanos , Neoplasias/tratamento farmacológico , Oncologia , Ensaios Clínicos Adaptados como Assunto/métodos , Desenvolvimento de Medicamentos/métodos , Antineoplásicos/uso terapêutico , Antineoplásicos/administração & dosagem , Ensaios Clínicos como AssuntoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Faced with the high cost and limited efficiency of classical randomized controlled trials, researchers are increasingly applying adaptive designs to speed up the development of new drugs. However, the application of adaptive design to drug randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and whether the reporting is adequate are unclear. Thus, this study aimed to summarize the epidemiological characteristics of the relevant trials and assess their reporting quality by the Adaptive designs CONSORT Extension (ACE) checklist. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and ClinicalTrials.gov from inception to January 2020. We included drug RCTs that explicitly claimed to be adaptive trials or used any type of adaptative design. We extracted the epidemiological characteristics of included studies to summarize their adaptive design application. We assessed the reporting quality of the trials by Adaptive designs CONSORT Extension (ACE) checklist. Univariable and multivariable linear regression models were used to the association of four prespecified factors with the quality of reporting. RESULTS: Our survey included 108 adaptive trials. We found that adaptive design has been increasingly applied over the years, and was commonly used in phase II trials (n = 45, 41.7%). The primary reasons for using adaptive design were to speed the trial and facilitate decision-making (n = 24, 22.2%), maximize the benefit of participants (n = 21, 19.4%), and reduce the total sample size (n = 15, 13.9%). Group sequential design (n = 63, 58.3%) was the most frequently applied method, followed by adaptive randomization design (n = 26, 24.1%), and adaptive dose-finding design (n = 24, 22.2%). The proportion of adherence to the ACE checklist of 26 topics ranged from 7.4 to 99.1%, with eight topics being adequately reported (i.e., level of adherence ≥ 80%), and eight others being poorly reported (i.e., level of adherence ≤ 30%). In addition, among the seven items specific for adaptive trials, three were poorly reported: accessibility to statistical analysis plan (n = 8, 7.4%), measures for confidentiality (n = 14, 13.0%), and assessments of similarity between interim stages (n = 25, 23.1%). The mean score of the ACE checklist was 13.9 (standard deviation [SD], 3.5) out of 26. According to our multivariable regression analysis, later published trials (estimated ß = 0.14, p < 0.01) and the multicenter trials (estimated ß = 2.22, p < 0.01) were associated with better reporting. CONCLUSION: Adaptive design has shown an increasing use over the years, and was primarily applied to early phase drug trials. However, the reporting quality of adaptive trials is suboptimal, and substantial efforts are needed to improve the reporting.
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Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , Projetos de Pesquisa , Humanos , Projetos de Pesquisa/normas , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto/métodos , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto/estatística & dados numéricos , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto/normas , Lista de Checagem/métodos , Lista de Checagem/normas , Ensaios Clínicos Fase II como Assunto/métodos , Ensaios Clínicos Fase II como Assunto/estatística & dados numéricos , Ensaios Clínicos Fase II como Assunto/normasRESUMO
Purpose: Novel clinical trial designs are conducted in the precision medicine era. This study aimed to evaluate biomarker-driven, adaptive phase II trials in precision oncology, focusing on infrastructure, efficacy, and safety. Materials and Methods: We systematically reviewed and analyzed the target studies. EMBASE and PubMed searches from 2015 to 2023 generated 29 eligible trials. Data extraction included infrastructure, biomarker screening methodologies, efficacy, and safety profiles. Results: Government agencies, cancer hospitals, and academic societies with accumulated experiences led investigator-initiated precision oncology clinical trials (IIPOCTs), which later guided sponsor-initiated precision oncology clinical trials (SIPOCTs). Most SIPOCTs were international studies with basket design. IIPOCTs primarily used the central laboratory for biomarker screening, but SIPOCTs used both central and local laboratories. Most of the studies adapted next-generation sequencing and/or immunohistochemistry for biomarker screening. Fifteen studies included an independent central review committee for outcome investigation. Efficacy assessments predominantly featured objective response rate as the primary endpoint, with varying results. Nine eligible studies contributed to the United States Food and Drug Administration's marketing authorization. Safety monitoring was rigorous, but reporting formats lacked uniformity. Health-related quality of life and patient-reported outcomes were described in some protocols but rarely reported. Conclusion: Our results reveal that precision oncology trials with adaptive design rapidly and efficiently evaluate anticancer drugs' efficacy and safety, particularly in specified biomarker-driven cohorts. The evolution from IIPOCT to SIPOCT has facilitated fast regulatory approval, providing valuable insights into the precision oncology landscape.
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Clinical trials in public health-particularly those conducted in low- and middle-income countries-often involve communicable and non-communicable diseases with high disease burden and unmet needs. Trials conducted in these regions often are faced with resource limitations, so improving the efficiencies of these trials is critical. Adaptive trial designs have the potential to save trial time and resources and reduce the number of patients receiving ineffective interventions. In this paper, we provide a detailed account of the implementation of vaccine and cluster randomized trials within the framework of Bayesian adaptive trials, with emphasis on computational efficiency and flexibility with regard to stopping rules and allocation ratios. We offer an educated approach to selecting prior distributions and a data-driven empirical Bayes method for plug-in estimates for nuisance parameters.
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Teorema de Bayes , Saúde Pública , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , Vacinas , Humanos , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto/métodos , Vacinas/uso terapêutico , Projetos de Pesquisa , Análise por ConglomeradosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Kidney transplantation is the optimal treatment for end-stage renal disease. However, highly sensitized patients (HSPs) have reduced access to transplantation, leading to increased morbidity and mortality on the waiting list. The Canadian Willingness to Cross (WTC) program proposes allowing transplantation across preformed donor specific antibodies (DSA) determined to be at a low risk of rejection under the adaptive design framework. This study collected patients' perspectives on the development of this program. METHODS: Forty-one individual interviews were conducted with kidney transplant candidates from three Canadian transplant centers in 2022. The interviews were digitally recorded and transcribed for subsequent analyses. RESULTS: Despite limited familiarity with the adaptive design, participants demonstrated trust in the researchers. They perceived the WTC program as a pathway for HSPs to access transplantation while mitigating transplant-related risks. HSPs saw the WTC program as a source of hope and an opportunity to leave dialysis, despite acknowledging inherent uncertainties. Some non-HSPs expressed concerns about fairness, anticipating increased waiting times and potential compromise in kidney graft longevity due to higher rejection risks. Participants recommended essential strategies for implementing the WTC program, including organizing informational meetings and highlighting the necessity for psychosocial support. CONCLUSION: The WTC program emerges as a promising strategy to enhance HSPs' access to kidney transplantation. While HSPs perceived this program as a source of hope, non-HSPs voiced concerns about distributive justice issues. These results will help develop a WTC program that is ethically sound for transplant candidates.
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Rejeição de Enxerto , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde , Falência Renal Crônica , Transplante de Rim , Listas de Espera , Humanos , Feminino , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Canadá , Falência Renal Crônica/cirurgia , Falência Renal Crônica/psicologia , Adulto , Rejeição de Enxerto/etiologia , Prognóstico , Seguimentos , Sobrevivência de Enxerto , Doadores de Tecidos/provisão & distribuição , Doadores de Tecidos/psicologia , Obtenção de Tecidos e Órgãos , Idoso , Isoanticorpos/imunologiaRESUMO
Under current bioequivalence guidelines in Japan, it is mandatory to establish bioequivalence using a single pivotal study. Clinical trials with limited resources usually have a pre-defined maximum permissible number of participants. In this manuscript, we considered a trial design that would allow for bioequivalence evaluation at an interim analysis in which the total number of participants takes into account the resource constraints. Then, available options at the interim analysis are group sequential designs and adaptive designs, A comparison of the performance of the two methods under same maximum participant number has not been conducted thus far. So we examined which method should be used by conducting a simulation study. Since bioequivalence is expected to be achieved at the interim analysis, a study design using a Pocock-type alpha spending function is preferrable. Simulation results using a Pocock-type alpha spending function showed similar performance between group sequential and adaptive designs. Consequently, due to statistical and operational complexity, it is preferable to choose group sequential designs for bioequivalence study in Japan.
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Projetos de Pesquisa , Equivalência Terapêutica , Humanos , Japão , Simulação por Computador , Ensaios Clínicos como AssuntoRESUMO
Adaptive seamless phase 2/3 subgroup enrichment design plays a pivotal role in streamlining efficient drug development within a competitive landscape, while also enhancing patient access to promising treatments. This design approach identifies biomarker subgroups with the highest potential to benefit from investigational regimens. The seamless integration of Phase 2 and Phase 3 ensures a timely confirmation of clinical benefits. One significant challenge in adaptive enrichment decisions is determining the optimal timing and maturity of the primary endpoint. In this paper, we propose an adaptive seamless 2-in-1 biomarker-driven subgroup enrichment design that addresses this challenge by allowing subgroup selection using an early intermediate endpoint that predicts clinical benefits (i.e. a surrogate endpoint). The proposed design initiates with a Phase 2 stage involving all participants and can potentially expand into a Phase 3 study focused on the subgroup demonstrating the most favorable clinical outcomes. We will show that, under certain correlation assumptions, the overall type I error may not be inflated at the end of the study. In scenarios where the assumptions may not hold, we present a general framework to control the multiplicity. The flexibility and efficacy of the proposed design are highlighted through an extensive simulation study and illustrated in a case study in multiple myeloma.
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Traditional vaccine efficacy trials usually use fixed designs and often require large sample sizes. Recruiting a large number of subjects can make the trial expensive, long, and difficult to conduct. A possible approach to reduce the sample size and speed up the development is to use historical controls. In this paper, we extend the robust mixture prior (RMP) approach (a well established approach for Bayesian dynamic borrowing of historical controls) to adjust for covariates. The adjustment is done using classical methods from causal inference: inverse probability of treatment weighting, G-computation and double-robust estimation. We evaluate these covariate-adjusted RMP approaches using a comprehensive simulation study and demonstrate their use by performing a retrospective analysis of a prophylactic human papillomavirus vaccine efficacy trial. Adjusting for covariates reduces the drift between current and historical controls, with a beneficial effect on bias, control of type I error and power.
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OBJECTIVE: This scoping review sought to map the breadth of literature on the use of adaptive design trials in eating disorder research. METHOD: A systematic literature search was conducted in Medline, Scopus, PsycInfo, Emcare, Econlit, CINAHL and ProQuest Dissertations and Theses. Articles were included if they reported on an intervention targeting any type of eating disorder (including anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, binge-eating disorder, and other specified feeding or eating disorders), and employed the use of an adaptive design trial to evaluate the intervention. Two independent reviewers screened citations for inclusion, and data abstraction was performed by one reviewer and verified by a second. RESULTS: We identified five adaptive design trials targeting anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa and binge-eating disorder conducted in the USA and Australia. All employed adaptive treatment arm switching based on early response to treatment and identified a priori stopping rules. None of the studies included value of information analysis to guide adaptive design decisions and none included lived experience perspectives. DISCUSSION: The limited use of adaptive designs in eating disorder trials represents a missed opportunity to improve enrolment targets, attrition rates, treatment outcomes and trial efficiency. We outline the range of adaptive methodologies, how they could be applied to eating disorder research, and the specific operational and statistical considerations relevant to adaptive design trials. PUBLIC SIGNIFICANCE: Adaptive design trials are increasingly employed as flexible, efficient alternatives to fixed trial designs, but they are not often used in eating disorder research. This first scoping review identified five adaptive design trials targeting anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa and binge-eating disorder that employed treatment arm switching adaptive methodology. We make recommendations on the use of adaptive design trials for future eating disorder trials.
OBJETIVO: Esta revisión exploratoria buscó mapear el alcance de la literatura sobre el uso de ensayos de diseño adaptativo en la investigación de trastornos de conducta alimentaria. MÉTODO: Se realizó una búsqueda sistemática de literatura en Medline, Scopus, PsycInfo, Econlit y CINAHL. Se incluyeron artículos que informaban sobre una intervención dirigida a cualquier tipo de trastorno de conducta alimentaria (incluyendo anorexia nerviosa, bulimia nerviosa, trastorno por atracón y otros trastornos de la conducta alimentaria o de la ingestión de alimentos especificados) y empleaban el uso de un ensayo de diseño adaptativo para evaluar la intervención. Dos revisores independientes examinaron las citas para su inclusión, y la abstracción de datos fue realizada por un revisor y verificada por otro. RESULTADOS: Identificamos cinco ensayos de diseño adaptativo dirigidos a la anorexia nerviosa, bulimia nerviosa y trastorno por atracón realizados en Estados Unidos y Australia. Todos emplearon el cambio adaptativo de brazo de tratamiento basado en la respuesta temprana al tratamiento e identificaron reglas de detención a priori. Ninguno de los estudios incluyó análisis del Valor de la Información para guiar las decisiones de diseño adaptativo y ninguno incluyó perspectivas de experiencia vivida. DISCUSIÓN: El uso limitado de diseños adaptativos en ensayos de trastornos de conducta alimentaria representa una oportunidad perdida para mejorar los objetivos de reclutamiento, tasas de deserción, resultados del tratamiento y eficiencia del ensayo. Esbozamos la gama de metodologías adaptativas, cómo podrían aplicarse a la investigación de trastornos de conducta alimentaria, y las consideraciones operativas y estadísticas específicas relevantes para los ensayos de diseño adaptativo. PÚBLICA SIGNIFICANCIA: Los ensayos de diseño adaptativo se emplean cada vez más como alternativas flexibles y eficientes a los diseños de ensayos fijos, pero no se utilizan con frecuencia en la investigación de trastornos de conducta alimentaria. Esta primera revisión exploratoria identificó cinco ensayos de diseño adaptativo dirigidos a la anorexia nerviosa, bulimia nerviosa y trastorno por atracón que emplearon la metodología adaptativa de cambio de brazo de tratamiento. Hacemos recomendaciones sobre el uso de ensayos de diseño adaptativo para futuros ensayos de trastornos de conducta alimentaria.