A proof-of-concept rat toxicity study highlights the potential utility and challenges of virtual control groups.

The virtual control group (VCG) concept provides a potential opportunity to reduce animal use in drug development by replacing concurrent control groups (CCGs) in nonclinical toxicity studies. This work investigated the feasibility and reliability of using VCGs in place of CCGs. A historical control database (HCD), constructed from Genentech Inc. rat toxicity study data, was reviewed to understand trends and sources of variability in control animals over time, and to identify data curation requirements for assembling VCGs, e.g. alignment of units of measurement. Several endpoints were investigated and stratified against different study design parameters. Sex, route of administration, fasting status, and body weight at study initiation were among the parameters that were indicated as key matching criteria. With a high-level understanding of potential sources of variability, a retrospective proof-of-concept (POC) study was designed, evaluating a historical rat pilot toxicity study for test article-related changes. A masked interpretation of the study was conducted using its CCG, and two unique VCGs that were constructed from individual animal data pulled from our HCD. While the results of the microscopic pathology assessment and most endpoints were similar across the different control groups, the POC revealed the risk of using VCGs to interpret subtle test article-related changes in clinical pathology parameters. Within the context of our POC, it appears the use of a VCG is not completely equivalent to the CCG especially with clinical pathology parameters. Additional work is needed to understand the potential utility, and thus, viability of VCGs in other contexts.

This study explored the use of virtual control groups (VCGs) as a potential method to reduce the number of living control animals in drug development. The process involves replacing concurrent control groups with historical animal data in nonclinical toxicity studies. Several parameters were identified as crucial factors that must be aligned before the construction of VCGs. The VCG concept was tested using a historical rat toxicity study, comparing results against the conventional control group as well as two unique VCGs. Although results were similar in most cases, potential risks in interpreting subtle changes in clinical pathology parameters were identified. Further work is needed to fully elucidate VCGs' potential, and whether it is a viable alternative to current methods. The significance of this work lies in the possibility of reducing the number of animals used in testing, in support of the 3Rs (replace, reduce, and refine).

Incidental Gliosis in the Central Nervous System of Control Nonhuman Primates and Rats.

Gliosis, including microgliosis and astrocytosis, can be challenging to interpret in nonclinical studies. Incidences of glial foci in brains and spinal cords of control rats and nonhuman primates (NHPs) were reviewed in the historical control databases from two contract research organizations, including one specializing in neuropathology. In the brain, minimal to mild (grades 1-2) microgliosis was the most common diagnosis, especially in NHPs, although occasional moderate or marked microgliosis (grades 3 and 4) was encountered in both species. Microgliosis was more common in the cerebral cortex, cerebellum, and medulla oblongata in both species and was frequent in the white matter (brain), thalamus, and basal nuclei of NHPs. Gliosis ("not otherwise specified") of minimal severity was diagnosed in similar brain sub-sites for both species and was more common in NHPs compared with rats. Astrocytosis was most prominent in the cerebellum (molecular layer) of NHPs but was otherwise uncommon. In the spinal cord, microgliosis was most common in the lateral white matter tracts in rats and NHPs, and in the dorsal white matter tracts in NHPs. These data indicate that low-grade spontaneous glial responses occur with some frequency in control animals of two common nonclinical species.

The road to virtual control groups and the importance of proper body-weight selection.

Virtual control groups (VCGs) created from historical control data (HCD) can reduce the number of concurrent control group animals needed in regulatory toxicity studies by up to 25%. This study investigates the performance of VCGs on statistical outcomes of body weight development between treatment and control groups in legacy studies. The objective is to reproduce the statistical outcomes of 28-day sub-chronic studies (legacy studies) after replacing the concurrent control group with virtual ones. In rodent toxicity studies initial body weight is used as surrogate for the age of animals. For the assessment of VCG-sampling methods three different approaches are explored: (i) sampling VCGs from the entire HCD ignoring initial body weight information of the legacy study, (ii) sampling from HCD matching the legacy study's initial body weights, and (iii) sampling from HCD with assigned statistical weights derived from legacy study initial body weight information. It is shown that the ability to reproduce statistical outcomes by virtual controls is mainly determined by the congruence between the legacy study and the HCD weight distribution: regardless of the chosen approach, the ability to reproduce statistical outcomes was well for VCGs when the legacy study's initial-body-weight distribution was similar to the HCD's. When the initial body weight range of the legacy study was at the extreme ends of the HCD's distribution, the weighted-sampling approach was superior. This article highlights the importance of proper HCD-matching by the legacy study's initial body weight and discusses required conditions to accurately reproduce body weight development.

Animal control data from past studies performed in a standardized manner can be used to create virtual control groups (VCGs) to use in new studies instead of control animals. This approach can reduce the number of study animals by up to 25%. This study assesses the performance of VCGs selected by body weight in rat studies. The objective was to reproduce the original study results as closely as possible after replacing the original control group values with VCGs from a pool of historical control values. Several methods for selecting control animal data to create VCGs were compared. Among these, assigning statistical weights to the sampling pool yielded the best performance. Ideally the body weight distributions on day 1 of the study should be similar between the VCG and the original study animals. This article shows that proper selection VCGs can yield reliable study data with fewer animals.

Historical Control Data of Spontaneous Pathological Findings in C57BL/6J Mice Used in 18-Month Dietary Carcinogenicity Assays.

A retrospective analysis in C57BL6/J mice used in dietary carcinogenicity studies was performed to determine the survival rate, causes of death and incidences of spontaneous non-tumoral and tumoral findings. Data were collected from 1600 mice from control dose groups of sixteen 18-month carcinogenicity assays performed between 2003 and 2021 at the same test facility with similar environmental conditions and experimental procedures. The survival rate was high in both sexes (81%-85%) and the causes of humane euthanasia or death were mainly non-tumoral (chronic ulcerative dermatitis, atrial thrombosis). Benign tumors were more frequent than malignant tumors and females were more affected than males. Pituitary gland adenoma in females, lymphoma, bronchioloalveolar adenoma, and harderian gland adenoma in both sexes were the most common tumors. Systemic amyloidosis, the most frequent non-tumoral lesion, was observed variably across studies without sex predilection. The analysis by cohort (3 time periods of 6 years) showed a tendency toward higher incidences of lymphoma and pituitary gland adenoma and lower incidences of amyloidosis over time. The results presented here provide for the first time a robust set of control historical data in untreated C57BL/6J mice kept for 18 months contributing to build in depth knowledge of this animal model.

Therapeutic benefit of larotrectinib over the historical standard of care in patients with locally advanced or metastatic infantile fibrosarcoma (EPI VITRAKVI study).

BACKGROUND: Patients with infantile fibrosarcoma (IFS) have shown strong and long-lasting responses to larotrectinib, a tropomyosin receptor kinase inhibitor (TRKi), in single-arm clinical trials. Conventional chemotherapy has also shown important efficacy. But, until now, no comparative data exist. This study aims to assess the therapeutic benefit of larotrectinib over the current standard of care (SOC) of chemotherapy in paediatric patients with locally advanced or metastatic IFS. PATIENTS AND METHODS: EPI VITRAKVI is a retrospective, observational, externally controlled study (NCT05236257). Data of patients aged ≤21 years with locally advanced or metastatic IFS treated with larotrectinib in the phase I/II SCOUT trial (NCT02637687) were compared with those of an external historical control group (data of Institut Curie and Cooperative Weichteilsarkom Studiengruppe) treated with a chemotherapy-based regimen. Between-group differences were assessed after balancing groups using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). RESULTS: In total, 93 patients were compared, 51 in the larotrectinib arm and 42 in the external control arm. After therapy, 4 patients (7.8%) in the larotrectinib group had a medical treatment failure event [start of new systemic treatment (2 cases), mutilating surgery (2 cases)] versus 15 (35.7%) in the external control group [start of new systemic treatment (6 cases), mutilating surgery (5 cases), radiation therapy (2 cases), and death (2 cases)]. Larotrectinib was associated with an 80% reduced likelihood of encountering a medical treatment failure event, when compared to the external control group (weighted and stratified hazard ratio 0.20, 95% confidence interval 0.06-0.63, P = 0.0060). These results were confirmed by sensitivity analyses, including exact matching, and subgroup analyses for number of lines of treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with larotrectinib reduced the need of subsequent therapies compared to SOC with chemotherapy in children with locally advanced or metastatic IFS, regardless of the line of treatment.

Consideration of the variability in control tumor incidence data at the Ramazzini Institute in evaluating treatment-related effects following chemical exposure.

The Ramazzini Institute (RI) has been conducting animal carcinogenicity studies for decades, many of which have been considered by authoritative bodies to determine potential carcinogenicity in humans. Unlike other laboratories, such as the U.S. National Toxicology Program (NTP), the RI does not provide a report or record of historical control data. Transparently documenting historical control data is critical in the interpretation of individual study results within the same laboratory. Historical control data allow an assessment of significant trends, either increasing or decreasing, resulting from changes in laboratory methods or genetic drift. In this investigation: (1) we compiled a dataset of the tumors reported in control groups of Sprague-Dawley rats and Swiss mice based on data included in published RI studies on specific substances, and (2) conducted case studies to compare data from this RI control dataset to the findings from multiple RI studies on sweeteners and corresponding breakdown products. We found considerable variability in the tumor incidence across multiple tumor types when comparing across control groups from RI studies. When compared to the tumor incidence in treated groups from multiple studies, the incidence of some tumors considered to be treatment-related fell within the variability of background incidence from the RI control dataset.

Radiotherapy for Metastatic Epidural Spinal Cord Compression with Increased Doses: Final Results of the RAMSES-01 Trial.

Patients with metastatic epidural spinal cord compression (MESCC) and favorable survival prognoses may benefit from radiation doses exceeding 10 × 3.0 Gy. In a multi-center phase 2 trial, patients receiving 15 × 2.633 Gy (41.6 Gy10) or 18 × 2.333 Gy (43.2 Gy10) were evaluated for local progression-free survival (LPFS), motor/sensory functions, ambulatory status, pain, distress, toxicity, and overall survival (OS). They were compared (propensity score-adjusted Cox regression) to a historical control group (n = 266) receiving 10 × 3.0 Gy (32.5 Gy10). In the phase 2 cohort, 50 (of 62 planned) patients were evaluated for LPFS. Twelve-month rates of LPFS and OS were 96.8% and 69.9%, respectively. Motor and sensory functions improved in 56% and 57.1% of patients, and 94.0% were ambulatory following radiotherapy. Pain and distress decreased in 84.4% and 78.0% of patients. Ten and two patients experienced grade 2 and 3 toxicities, respectively. Phase 2 patients showed significantly better LPFS than the control group (p = 0.039) and a trend for improved motor function (p = 0.057). Ambulatory and OS rates were not significantly different. Radiotherapy with 15 × 2.633 Gy or 18 × 2.333 Gy was well tolerated and appeared superior to 10 × 3.0 Gy.

Case weighted power priors for hybrid control analyses with time-to-event data.

We develop a method for hybrid analyses that uses external controls to augment internal control arms in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) where the degree of borrowing is determined based on similarity between RCT and external control patients to account for systematic differences (e.g., unmeasured confounders). The method represents a novel extension of the power prior where discounting weights are computed separately for each external control based on compatibility with the randomized control data. The discounting weights are determined using the predictive distribution for the external controls derived via the posterior distribution for time-to-event parameters estimated from the RCT. This method is applied using a proportional hazards regression model with piecewise constant baseline hazard. A simulation study and a real-data example are presented based on a completed trial in non-small cell lung cancer. It is shown that the case weighted power prior provides robust inference under various forms of incompatibility between the external controls and RCT population.

Replacing concurrent controls with virtual control groups in rat toxicity studies.

Virtual control groups (VCGs) in nonclinical toxicity represent the concept of using appropriate historical control data for replacing concurrent control group animals. Historical control data collected from standardized studies can serve as base for constructing VCGs and legacy study reports can be used as a benchmark to evaluate the VCG performance. Replacing concurrent controls of legacy studies with VCGs should ideally reproduce the results of these studies. Based on three four-week rat oral toxicity legacy studies with varying degrees of toxicity findings we developed a concept to evaluate VCG performance on different levels: the ability of VCGs to (i) reproduce statistically significant deviations from the concurrent control, (ii) reproduce test substance-related effects, and (iii) reproduce the conclusion of the toxicity study in terms of threshold dose, target organs, toxicological biomarkers (clinical pathology) and reversibility. Although VCGs have shown a low to moderate ability to reproduce statistical results, the general study conclusions remained unchanged. Our results provide a first indication that carefully selected historical control data can be used to replace concurrent control without impairing the general study conclusion. Additionally, the developed procedures and workflows lay the foundation for the future validation of virtual controls for a use in regulatory toxicology.

Considerations for master protocols using external controls.

There has been an increasing use of master protocols in oncology clinical trials because of its efficiency to accelerate cancer drug development and flexibility to accommodate multiple substudies. Depending on the study objective and design, a master protocol trial can be a basket trial, an umbrella trial, a platform trial, or any other form of trials in which multiple investigational products and/or subpopulations are studied under a single protocol. Master protocols can use external data and evidence (e.g. external controls) for treatment effect estimation, which can further improve efficiency of master protocol trials. This paper provides an overview of different types of external controls and their unique features when used in master protocols. Some key considerations in master protocols with external controls are discussed including construction of estimands, assessment of fit-for-use real-world data, and considerations for different types of master protocols. Similarities and differences between regular randomized controlled trials and master protocols when using external controls are discussed. A targeted learning-based causal roadmap is presented which constitutes three key steps: (1) define a target statistical estimand that aligns with the causal estimand for the study objective, (2) use an efficient estimator to estimate the target statistical estimand and its uncertainty, and (3) evaluate the impact of causal assumptions on the study conclusion by performing sensitivity analyses. Two illustrative examples for master protocols using external controls are discussed for their merits and possible improvement in causal effect estimation.

In vivo alkaline comet assay: Statistical considerations on historical negative and positive control data.

The alkaline comet assay is frequently used as in vivo follow-up test within different regulatory environments to characterize the DNA-damaging potential of different test items. The corresponding OECD Test guideline 489 highlights the importance of statistical analyses and historical control data (HCD) but does not provide detailed procedures. Therefore, the working group "Statistics" of the German-speaking Society for Environmental Mutation Research (GUM) collected HCD from five laboratories and >200 comet assay studies and performed several statistical analyses. Key results included that (I) observed large inter-laboratory effects argue against the use of absolute quality thresholds, (II) > 50% zero values on a slide are considered problematic, due to their influence on slide or animal summary statistics, (III) the type of summarizing measure for single-cell data (e.g., median, arithmetic and geometric mean) may lead to extreme differences in resulting animal tail intensities and study outcome in the HCD. These summarizing values increase the reliability of analysis results by better meeting statistical model assumptions, but at the cost of information loss. Furthermore, the relation between negative and positive control groups in the data set was always satisfactorily (or sufficiently) based on ratio, difference and quantile analyses.

Treatment effect estimation using the propensity score in clinical trials with historical control.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials assessing new treatment effects require a control group to compare the pure treatment effects. However, in clinical trials on regenerative medicine, rare diseases, and intractable diseases, it may be ethically difficult to assign participants to the control group. In recent years, the use of historical control data has attracted attention as a method for supplementing the number of participants in the control group. When combining historical control data with new randomized controlled trial (RCT) data, the assessment of heterogeneity using outcome data is not sufficient. Therefore, several statistical methods that consider participant outcomes and baseline characteristics, including the propensity score (PS) method have been proposed. METHODS: We propose a new method considering "information on whether the data are RCT data or not" in the PS model when combining the RCT and historical control data. The performance of the proposed method in estimating the treatment effect is evaluated using simulation data. RESULTS: When the distribution of covariates is similar between the RCT and historical control data, not much difference in performance is found between the proposed and conventional methods to estimate the treatment effect. On the other hand, when the distribution of covariates is not similar between the two kinds of data, the proposed method shows higher performance. CONCLUSIONS: Even when it is not known whether RCT and historical control data are similar, the proposed PS model is useful to estimate the treatment effect appropriately in RCTs using historical control data.

Decoupling power and type I error rate considerations when incorporating historical control data using a test-then-pool approach.

To accelerate a randomized controlled trial, historical control data may be used after ensuring little heterogeneity between the historical and current trials. The test-then-pool approach is a simple frequentist borrowing method that assesses the similarity between historical and current control data using a two-sided test. A limitation of the conventional test-then-pool method is the inability to control the type I error rate and power for the primary hypothesis separately and flexibly for heterogeneity between trials. This is because the two-sided test focuses on the absolute value of the mean difference between the historical and current controls. In this paper, we propose a new test-then-pool method that splits the two-sided hypothesis of the conventional method into two one-sided hypotheses. Testing each one-sided hypothesis with different significance levels allows for the separate control of the type I error rate and power for heterogeneity between trials. We also propose a significance-level selection approach based on the maximum type I error rate and the minimum power. The proposed method prevented a decrease in power even when there was heterogeneity between trials while controlling type I error at a maximum tolerable type I error rate larger than the targeted type I error rate. The application of depression trial data and hypothetical trial data further supported the usefulness of the proposed method.

Toward implementing virtual control groups in nonclinical safety studies.

Historical data from control groups in animal toxicity studies is currently mainly used for comparative purposes to assess validity and robustness of study results. Due to the highly controlled environment in which the studies are performed and the homogeneity of the animal collectives it has been proposed to use the historical data for building so-called virtual control groups, which could replace partly or entirely the concurrent control. This would constitute a substantial contribution to the reduction of animal use in safety studies. Before the concept can be implemented, the prerequisites regarding data collection, curation and statistical evaluation together with a validation strategy need to be identified to avoid any impairment of the study outcome and subsequent consequences for human risk assessment. To further assess and develop the concept of virtual control groups the transatlantic think tank for toxicology (t4) sponsored a workshop with stakeholders from the pharmaceutical and chemical industry, academia, FDA, pharmaceutical, contract research organizations (CROs), and non-governmental organizations in Washington, which took place in March 2023. This report summarizes the current efforts of a European initiative to share, collect and curate animal control data in a centralized database and the first approaches to identify optimal matching criteria between virtual controls and the treatment arms of a study as well as first reflections about strategies for a qualification procedure and potential pitfalls of the concept.

Animal safety studies are usually performed with three groups of animals where increasing amounts of the test chemical are given to the animals and one control group where the animals do not receive the test chemical. The design of such studies, the characteristics of the animals, and the measured parameters are often very similar from study to study. Therefore, it has been suggested that measurement data from the control groups could be reused from study to study to lower the total number of animals per study. This could reduce animal use by up to 25% for such standardized studies. A workshop was held to discuss the pros and cons of such a concept and what would have to be done to implement it without threatening the reliability of the study outcome or the resulting human risk assessment.

Historical control histopathology data from amphibian metamorphosis assays and fathead minnow fish short term reproductive assays: A tool for data interpretation.

The Amphibian Metamorphosis Assay (AMA) is used to determine if a tested chemical has potential to impact the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid (HPT) axis of Xenopus laevis tadpoles, while the Fish Short Term Reproduction Assay (FSTRA) assesses potential effects on the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axis of fish such as the fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas). Several global regulatory programs routinely require these internationally validated tests be performed to determine the potential endocrine activity of chemicals. As such, they are conducted in accordance with standardized protocols and test criteria, which were originally developed more than a decade ago. Sizeable numbers of AMA and FSTRA studies have since been carried out, which allows for the mining of extensive historical control data (HCD). Such data are useful for investigating the existence of outlier results and aberrant control groups, identifying potential confounding variables, providing context for rare diagnoses, discriminating target from non-target effects, and for refining current testing paradigms. The present paper provides histopathology HCD from 55 AMA studies and 45 fathead minnow FSTRA studies, so that these data may become publicly available and thus aid in the interpretation of future study outcomes. Histopathology is a key endpoint in these assays, in which it is considered to be one of the most sensitive indicators of endocrine perturbation. In the current review, granular explorations of HCD data were used to identify background lesions, to assess the utility of particular diagnostic findings for distinguishing endocrine from non-endocrine effects, and to help determine if specific improvements to established regulatory guidance may be warranted. Knowledge gleaned from this investigation, supplemented by information from other recent studies, provided further context for the interpretation of AMA and FSTRA histopathology results. We recommend HCDs for the AMA and FSTRA be maintained to support the interpretation of study results.

A Retrospective Comparison of Electrocardiographic Parameters in Ketamine and Tiletamine-Zolazepam Anesthetized Indian Rhesus Monkeys (Macaca mulatta).

Electrocardiographic evaluation is performed in rhesus monkeys to establish the cardiovascular safety of candidate molecules before progressing to clinical trials. These animals are usually immobilized chemically by ketamine (KTM) and tiletamine-zolazepam (TZ) to obtain a steady-state heart rate and to ensure adequate human safety. The present study aimed to evaluate the effect of these anesthetic regimens on different electrocardiographic parameters. Statistically significant lower HR and higher P-wave duration, RR, QRS, and QT intervals were observed in the KTM-anesthetized group in comparison to TZ-anesthetized animals. No significant changes were noticed in the PR interval and p-wave amplitude. Sex-based significance amongst these parameters was observed in male and female animals of TZ- and KTM-anesthetized groups. Regression analysis of four QTc formulas in TZ-anesthetized rhesus monkeys revealed that QTcNAK (Nakayama) better corrected the QT interval than QTcHAS (Hassimoto), QTcBZT (Bazett), and QTcFRD (Fridericia) formulas. QTcNAK exhibited the least correlation with the RR interval (slope closest to zero and r = .01) and displayed no statistical significance between male and female animals. These data will prove useful in the selection of anesthetic regimens for chemical restraint of rhesus monkeys in nonclinical safety evaluation studies.

The calculation of historical control limits in toxicology: Do's, don'ts and open issues from a statistical perspective.

For reporting toxicology studies, the presentation of historical control data and the validation of the concurrent control group with respect to historical control limits have become requirements. However, many regulatory guidelines fail to define how such limits should be calculated and what kind of target value(s) they should cover. Hence, this manuscript is aimed to give a brief review on the methods for the calculation of historical control limits that are in use as well as on their theoretical background. Furthermore, this manuscript is aimed to identify open issues for the use of historical control limits that need to be discussed by the community. It seems that, even after 40 years of discussion, more issues remain open than solved, both, with regard to the available methodology as well as its implementation in user-friendly software. Since several of these topics equally apply to several research fields, this manuscript is addressed to all relevant stakeholders who deal with historical control data obtained from toxicological studies, regardless of their background or field of research.

Can Historical Control Group Data Be Used to Replace Concurrent Controls in Animal Studies?

The availability of large amounts of high-quality control data from tightly controlled regulated animal safety data has created the idea to re-use these data beyond its classical applications of quality control, identification of treatment-related effects and assessing effect-size relevance for building virtual control groups (VCGs). While the ethical and cost-saving aspects of such a concept are immediately evident, the potential challenges need to be carefully considered to avoid any effect which could lower the sensitivity of an animal study to detect adverse events, safety thresholds, target organs, or biomarkers. In our brief communication, we summarize the current discussion regarding VCGs and propose a path forward how the replacement of concurrent control with VCGs resulting from historical data could be systematically assessed and to come to conclusions regarding the scientific value of the concept.

BEATS: Bayesian hybrid design with flexible sample size adaptation for time-to-event endpoints.

As the roles of historical trials and real-world evidence in drug development have substantially increased, several approaches have been proposed to leverage external data and improve the design of clinical trials. While most of these approaches focus on methodology development for borrowing information during the analysis stage, there is a risk of inadequate or absent enrollment of concurrent control due to misspecification of heterogeneity from external data, which can result in unreliable estimates of treatment effect. In this study, we introduce a Bayesian hybrid design with flexible sample size adaptation (BEATS) that allows for adaptive borrowing of external data based on the level of heterogeneity to augment the control arm during both the design and interim analysis stages. Moreover, BEATS extends the Bayesian semiparametric meta-analytic predictive prior (BaSe-MAP) to incorporate time-to-event endpoints, enabling optimal borrowing performance. Initially, BEATS calibrates the expected sample size and initial randomization ratio based on heterogeneity among the external data. During the interim analysis, flexible sample size adaptation is performed to address conflicts between the concurrent and historical control, while also conducting futility analysis. At the final analysis, estimation is provided by incorporating the calibrated amount of external data. Therefore, our proposed design allows for an approximation of an ideal randomized controlled trial with an equal randomization ratio while controlling the size of the concurrent control to benefit patients and accelerate drug development. BEATS also offers optimal power and robust estimation through flexible sample size adaptation when conflicts arise between the concurrent control and external data.

Characterization of patterns and variability in the dynamics of outdoor aquatic mesocosms: exploring the capabilities and challenges in data supporting aquatic system models.

Aquatic mesocosms are complex test systems used within regulatory risk assessment of plant protection products. These model ecosystems allow researchers to capture interactions of multiple species under realistic environmental conditions. They enable assessment of direct and indirect effects of stressors at all trophic levels (i.e., from primary producers to secondary consumers) and impacts on ecosystem functions. Due to the limited ability to test the multitude of potential exposure scenarios, cross-linking aquatic mesocosm studies with virtual mesocosms, i.e., aquatic system models (ASMs), can serve to meet the demand for more environmental realism and ecological relevance in risk assessment. In this study, full control data sets from seven aquatic mesocosm studies conducted at a single test facility under GLP were analysed graphically and using descriptive statistics. Thereby, not only a comprehensive data base but also an insight into the species present, their dynamics over time, and variability in unchallenged mesocosms was observed. While consistency in dynamics could be discerned for physical and chemical parameters, variability was evident for several biological endpoints. This variability points to amplification of small differences over time as well as to stochastic processes. The outline of existing gaps and uncertainties in data leads to the estimation of what can be expected to be captured and predicted by ASMs.