Role of national regime ideology for predicting biodiversity outcomes.

The rapid decline of global biodiversity has engendered renewed debate about the social, economic, and political factors contributing to it. Specifically, there is little understanding of the role that political ideology within a country (e.g., nationalism, conservatism, socialism) plays in determining biodiversity outcomes. We used negative binomial generalized linear models to investigate the importance of national regime ideology in predicting threatened animal species and protected area establishment compared with other factors that affect biodiversity outcomes, such as gross domestic product, inequality, and democracy. For threatened animals, the model with the highest Akaike weight suggested adverse biodiversity outcomes arose from larger gross domestic product (ß = 0.120, p < 0.001). However, nationalism (ß = 0.371, p < 0.01) and socialism (ß = 0.293, p < 0.05) were also significantly associated with increased proportions of threatened species. For protected areas, the model with the highest Akaike weight suggested increases in democracy (ß = 0.880, p < 0.001) led to a rise in relative protected area estate. Conservative regime ideology was also associated with greater protected area estate, although this did not increase the weight of evidence in support of the best models. These findings highlight the relevance of political ideology for predicting biodiversity outcomes at a national scale and illustrate opportunities to tailor policies and advocacy to promote biodiversity conservation more effectively. By targeting appropriate messaging and political advocacy, conservationists can improve the likelihood that politicians and their nations will participate in positive biodiversity actions.

El papel de la ideología del régimen nacional para la predicción de resultados de biodiversidad Resumen El rápido declive de la biodiversidad mundial ha suscitado un renovado debate sobre los factores sociales, económicos y políticos que contribuyen a él. En concreto, se conoce poco el papel que desempeña la ideología política dentro de un país (por ejemplo, el nacionalismo, el conservadurismo o el socialismo) a la hora de determinar los resultados en materia de biodiversidad. Utilizamos modelos lineales generalizados binomiales negativos para investigar la importancia de la ideología del régimen nacional a la hora de predecir las especies animales amenazadas y el establecimiento de áreas protegidas en comparación con otros factores que afectan a los resultados de la biodiversidad, como el producto interno bruto, la desigualdad y la democracia. En el caso de los animales amenazados, el modelo con la mayor ponderación de Akaike sugirió que los resultados adversos para la biodiversidad se debían a un mayor producto interno bruto (ß = 0,120, p < 0,001). Sin embargo, el nacionalismo (ß = 0,371, p < 0,01) y el socialismo (ß = 0,293, p < 0,05) también se asociaron significativamente con una mayor proporción de especies amenazadas. En el caso de las áreas protegidas, el modelo con la mayor ponderación de Akaike sugirió que el aumento de la democracia (ß = 0,880, p < 0,001) conducía a un aumento de la extensión relativa de las áreas protegidas. La ideología conservadora del régimen también se asoció con una mayor superficie de áreas protegidas, aunque no aumentó el peso de la evidencia en apoyo de los mejores modelos. Estos resultados resaltan la importancia de la ideología política para predecir los resultados de la biodiversidad a escala nacional e ilustran las oportunidades de adaptar las políticas y la defensa para promover la conservación de la biodiversidad de manera más eficaz. Si se orientan los mensajes y la promoción política de forma adecuada, los conservacionistas pueden mejorar la probabilidad de que los políticos y sus naciones participen en acciones positivas para la biodiversidad.

Anthropogenic debris pollution in yellow-legged gull (Larus michahellis atlantis) nests in biosphere reserves of the Canary Islands.

Anthropogenic debris, particularly plastic pollution, has emerged as a significant environmental threat to biodiversity. Given that seabirds interact with artificial debris through ingestion, entanglement, and nest incorporation, it is particularly important to quantify the quantity, origins, and chemical composition of these debris items. In this work, it was evaluated for the first time the occurrence of anthropogenic debris in nests of yellow-legged gull (Larus michahellis atlantis) in biosphere reserves of the Canary Islands (Spain). A total of 48 abandoned nests were collected from five remote and hardly accessible sampling areas, revealing that 81.3 % contained anthropogenic waste, with plastic accounting for 34.7 % of the debris, followed by metal (33.6 %) and paper (19.6 %). On average, 32.8 ± 40.9 items were found per nest. Regarding the origin, food packagings (47.8 %), personal hygiene products (21.7 %), and textiles (15.8 %) were identified as the predominant sources. Furthermore, the polymer composition of the plastics was characterised by means of Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy analysis, being polyester the most abundant (38.2 %), followed by polyethylene (25.6 %) and rayon (10.3 %). The incorporation of anthropogenic debris into nest construction may result from outdoor human activities carried out far from nesting areas.

Global warming and coastal protected areas: A study on phytoplankton abundance and sea surface temperature in different regions of the Brazilian South Atlantic Coastal Ocean.

In this study, we examined the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and phytoplankton abundance in coastal regions of the Brazilian South Atlantic: São Paulo, Paraná, and Santa Catarina, and the Protection Area of Southern right whales (Eubalaena australis) in Santa Catarina (APA), a conservation zone established along 130 km of coastline. Using SST and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) data from 2002 to 2023, we found significant differences in SST between the regions, with São Paulo having the highest SST, followed by Paraná and Santa Catarina. All locations showed a consistent increase in SST over the years, with North Santa Catarina, APA and São Paulo experiencing the lowest rate of increase. Correlation analyses between SST and Chl-a revealed a stronger inverse relationship in North Santa Catarina and APA, indicating an increased response of Chl-a to SST variations in this region. The presence of protected area appears to play an essential role in reducing the negative impacts of increasing SST. Specifically, while there is a wealth of research on the consequences of global warming on diverse coastal and oceanic areas, heterogeneity among different settings persists and the causes for this necessitating attention. Our findings have implications for both localized scientific approaches and broader climate policies, emphasizing the importance of considering coastal ecosystem resilience to climate change in future conservation and adaptation strategies.

Conservation of more evolutionary unique amphibian communities in Türkiye: The role of protected areas.

The alarming decline of amphibians, sometimes marked by sudden extinctions, underlines the urgent need for increased conservation efforts. Conservationists recognize that more action, particularly the setting of national targets, is needed to ensure the future persistence and recovery of species and habitats. Protecting habitats that harbor evolutionarily diverse species preserves divergent genetic information within ecosystems. Türkiye holds 36 amphibian species at the intersection of two continents, creating three biodiversity hotspots and phylogenetic transitional areas. In this study, we aimed to determine the hotspot regions and to evaluate the effectiveness of the protected areas in Türkiye in preserving amphibian populations. First, we estimated four community indexes (species richness and three evolutionary distinctiveness measures) for amphibian communities in Türkiye divided into 371 grid cells with a ca 50 × 50 km size. Then, the spatial extent of protected areas is evaluated from two perspectives: current (has a protection status) and candidate protected areas (Key Biodiversity Areas, not protected) coverage in those grid cells. Finally, these two approaches' effectiveness in protecting areas was assessed by modeling four diversity metrics using GLS models. Current protected areas protect about 6% of the total amphibian distribution in Türkiye, while Key Biodiversity Areas would cover 30% if declared protected areas. We estimated that the coastal areas of Türkiye are identified as hotspots based on the four measured amphibian community indexes. Our study also highlights that Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) can contribute to conserving high levels of amphibian richness and evolutionary distinctiveness of species across Türkiye. However, existing protected areas (PAs) networks were insufficient to protect amphibians.

Effectiveness of marine protected areas in safeguarding important migratory megafauna habitat.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a commonly used management tool to safeguard marine life from anthropogenic impacts, yet their efficacy often remains untested. Evaluating how highly dynamic marine species use static MPAs is challenging but becoming more feasible with the advancement of telemetry data. Here, we focus on southern right whales (Eubalaena australis, SRWs) in the waters off Aotearoa/New Zealand, which declined from 30,000 whales to fewer than 40 mature females due to whaling. Now numbering in the low thousands, the key socializing and nursery areas for this population in the remote subantarctic islands are under the protection of different types of MPAs. However, the effectiveness of these MPAs in encompassing important whale habitat and protecting the whales from vessel traffic has not been investigated. To address this, we analyzed telemetry data from 29 SRWs tagged at the Auckland Islands between 2009 and 2022. We identified two previously unknown and currently unprotected areas that were used by the whales for important behaviors such as foraging, socializing, or resting. Additionally, by combining whale locations and vessel tracking data (2020-2022) during peak breeding period (June to October), we found high spatiotemporal overlap between whales and vessels within several MPAs, suggesting the whales could still be vulnerable to multiple anthropogenic stressors even when within areas designated for protection. Our results identify areas to be prioritized for future monitoring and investigation to support the ongoing recovery of this SRW population, as well as highlight the overarching importance of assessing MPA effectiveness post-implementation, especially in a changing climate.

Assessment of cancer and dietary risks in commercially valuable marine organisms in coast of a region of future exploration (Equatorial South Atlantic).

The Equatorial South Atlantic region, spanning over 1700 km, is currently undergoing extensive exploitation through various activities such as oil extraction, desalination plants, marine mineral explorations, and wind power for green hydrogen production. This undoubtedly also contributes to the exacerbation of pre-existing chronic environmental impacts. This study aims to investigate the concentrations of 60 substances, categorized as Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Contaminants of Emerging Concern (CECs) from various classes including: polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), as well as Pyrethroids (PPs), Triazines (TPs) and Organophosphates (OPPs) pesticides in consumable fish, shellfish, and crabs. The bivalve (Mytella charruana), crab (Ucides cordatus), and catfish (Sciades herzbergii) samples were collected in areas of ecological, environmental and economic importance. This data was used to estimate concentrations in the organisms, and to calculate cancer and human health risk. The most prevalent pollutant classes in the organisms were OCPs, followed by TPs and PPs. Shellfish and fish samples had more compounds indicating health risks, when compared to crabs. The substances causing cancer risks varied across organisms and study areas. The heightened cancer risks linked to specific compounds in various species highlight the urgent need to address persistent pollutants to prevent long-term health impacts on both humans and wildlife. Compounds such as PPs, TPs, and OPPs pose significant risks of neurotoxicity and endocrine disruption. This study underscores the interconnectedness of environmental and human health in coastal ecosystems, calling for continuous monitoring and adaptive management strategies to protect these fragile environments and the communities that rely on them.

Predicting undetected native vascular plant diversity at a global scale.

Vascular plants are diverse and a major component of terrestrial ecosystems, yet their geographic distributions remain incomplete. Here, I present a global database of vascular plant distributions by integrating species distribution models calibrated to species' dispersal ability and natural habitats to predict native range maps for 201,681 vascular plant species into unsurveyed areas. Using these maps, I uncover unique patterns of native vascular plant diversity, endemism, and phylogenetic diversity revealing hotspots in underdocumented biodiversity-rich regions. These hotspots, based on detailed species-level maps, show a pronounced latitudinal gradient, strongly supporting the theory of increasing diversity toward the equator. I trained random forest models to extrapolate diversity patterns under unbiased global sampling and identify overlaps with modeled estimations but unveiled cryptic hotspots that were not captured by modeled estimations. Only 29% to 36% of extrapolated plant hotspots are inside protected areas, leaving more than 60% outside and vulnerable. However, the unprotected hotspots harbor species with unique attributes that make them good candidates for conservation prioritization.

Using feces to indicate plastic pollution in terrestrial vertebrate species in western Thailand.

Plastic pollution is a widespread and growing concern due to its transformation into microplastics (MPs), which can harm organisms and ecosystems. This study, aimed to identify plastic pollution in the feces of terrestrial vertebrates using convenience sampling both inside and outside protected areas in Western Thailand. We hypothesized that MPs are likely to be detectable in the feces of all vertebrate species, primarily in the form of small black fragments. We predicted varying quantities of MPs in the feces of the same species across different protected areas. Furthermore, we expected that factors indicating human presence, landscape characteristics, scat weight, and the MP abundance in water, soils, and sediments would influence the presence of plastics in feces. Among 12 terrestrial species studied, potential MPs were found in 41.11% of 90 samples, totaling 83 pieces across eight species including the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus), Eld's deer (Rucervus eldii), Dhole (Cuon alpinus), Gaur (Bos gaurus), Sambar deer (Rusa unicolor), Wild boar (Sus scrofa), Northern red muntjac (Muntiacus vaginalis), and Butterfly lizard (Leiolepis belliana). Specifically, 3.61% of all potential MPs (three pieces) were macroplastics, and the remaining 96.39% were considered potential MPs with the abundance of 0.92 ± 1.89 items.scat-1 or 8.69 ± 32.56 items.100 g-1 dw. There was an association between the numbers of feces with and without potential plastics and species (χ2 = 20.88, p = 0.012). Most potential plastics were fibers (95.18%), predominantly black (56.63%) or blue (26.51%), with 74.70% smaller than two millimeters. Although there were no significant associations between species and plastic morphologies, colors, and sizes, the abundance classified by these characteristics varied significantly. FTIR identified 52.38% as natural fibers, 38.10% as synthetic fibers (rayon, polyurethane (PUR), polyethylene terephthalate (PET), polypropylene (PP), and PUR blended with cotton), and 9.52% as fragments of PET and Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC). Human-related factors were linked to the occurrence of potential plastics found in the feces of land-dwelling wildlife. This study enhances the understanding of plastic pollution in tropical protected areas, revealing the widespread of MPs even in small numbers from the areas distant from human settlements. Monitoring plastics in feces offers a non-invasive method for assessing plastic pollution in threatened species, as it allows for easy collection and taxonomic identification without harming live animals. However, stringent measures to assure the quality are necessitated to prevent exogenous MP contamination. These findings underscore the importance of raising awareness about plastic pollution in terrestrial ecosystems, especially regarding plastic products from clothing and plastic materials used in agriculture and irrigation systems.

Dependence of Europe's most threatened mammals on movement to adapt to climate change.

Current rates of climate change and gloomy climate projections confront managers and conservation planners with the need to integrate climate change into already complex decision-making processes. Predicting and prioritizing climatically stable areas and the areas likely to facilitate adaptive species' range adjustments are important stages in maximizing conservation outcomes and rationalizing future land management. I determined, for the most threatened European terrestrial mammal species, the spatial adaptive trajectories (SATs) of highest expected persistence up to 2080. I devised simple spatial network indices for evaluation of species in those SATs: total persistence; proportion of SATs that offer in situ adaptation (i.e., stable refugia); number of SATs converging in a site; and relationship between SAT convergence and persistence and protected areas, the Natura 2000 and Emerald networks, and areas of low human disturbance. I compared the performance of high-persistence SATs with a scenario in which each species remained in the areas with the best climatic conditions in the baseline period. The 1000 most persistence SATs for each of the 39 species covered one fifth of Europe. The areas with the largest adaptive potential (i.e., high persistence, stability, and SAT convergence) did not always overlap for all the species. Predominantly, these regions were located in southwestern Europe, Central Europe, and Scandinavia, with some occurrences in Eastern Europe. For most species, persistence in the most climatically suitable areas during the baseline period was lower than within SATs, underscoring their reliance on adaptive movements. Importantly, conservation areas (particularly protected areas) covered only minor fractions of species persistence among SATs, and hubs of spatial climate adaptation (i.e., areas of high SAT convergence) were seriously underrepresented in most conservation areas. These results highlight the need to perform analyses on spatial species' dynamics under climate change.

Los mamíferos más amenazados de Europa y su dependencia del movimiento para adaptarse al cambio climático Resumen La tasa actual del cambio climático y las proyecciones climáticas pesimistas confrontan a los gestores y a los planeadores de la conservación con la necesidad de integrar este cambio a la ya de por sí compleja toma de decisiones. La predicción y priorización de áreas con estabilidad climática y áreas con probabilidad de facilitarles ajustes adaptativos de distribución a las especies son etapas importantes para maximizar los resultados de conservación y racionalizar la gestión futura de las tierras. Determiné las trayectorias espaciales adaptativas (TEA) para la mayoría de los mamíferos terrestres más amenazados de Europa con la persistencia esperada más alta hasta el 2080. Diseñé los siguientes índices de redes espaciales simples para la evaluación de especies en aquellas TEA: persistencia total, proporción de TEA que brindan adaptación in situ (refugios estables), número de TEA que convergen en un sitio y relación entre la convergencia de TEA y la persistencia con las áreas protegidas, las redes Natura 2000 y Emerald y las áreas de poca perturbación humana. Comparé el desempeño de las TEA de gran persistencia con un escenario en el que las especies permanecían dentro de las áreas con las mejores condiciones climáticas en el periodo de línea base. Las mil TEA más persistentes para cada una de las 39 especies cubrieron la quinta parte de Europa. Las áreas con el mayor potencial adaptativo (es decir, gran persistencia, estabilidad y convergencia de TEA) no siempre se traslaparon para todas las especies. Estas regiones predominaron en el suroeste de Europa, Europa Central y Escandinavia, con algunas ocurrencias en el este de Europa. Para la mayoría de las especies, la persistencia de las áreas con el mejor clima posible durante el periodo de línea base fue menor que dentro de las TEA, lo que resalta su dependencia por los movimientos adaptativos. Destaca que las áreas de conservación (en particular las áreas protegidas) cubrieron sólo pequeñas fracciones de la persistencia de las especies entre las TEA y los núcleos de adaptación climática (es decir, las áreas de gran convergencia de TEA) contaban con muy poca representación dentro de la mayoría de las áreas de conservación. Estos resultados enfatizan la necesidad de realizar análisis de las dinámicas espaciales de las especies bajo el cambio climático.

Global expansion of marine protected areas and the redistribution of fishing effort.

The expansion of marine protected areas (MPAs) is a core focus of global conservation efforts, with the "30x30" initiative to protect 30% of the ocean by 2030 serving as a prominent example of this trend. We consider a series of proposed MPA network expansions of various sizes, and we forecast the impact this increase in protection would have on global patterns of fishing effort. We do so by building a predictive machine learning model trained on a global dataset of satellite-based fishing vessel monitoring data, current MPA locations, and spatiotemporal environmental, geographic, political, and economic features. We then use this model to predict future fishing effort under various MPA expansion scenarios compared to a business-as-usual counterfactual scenario that includes no new MPAs. The difference between these scenarios represents the predicted change in fishing effort associated with MPA expansion. We find that regardless of the MPA network objectives or size, fishing effort would decrease inside the MPAs, though by much less than 100%. Moreover, we find that the reduction in fishing effort inside MPAs does not simply redistribute outside-rather, fishing effort outside MPAs would also decline. The overall magnitude of the predicted decrease in global fishing effort principally depends on where networks are placed in relation to existing fishing effort. MPA expansion will lead to a global redistribution of fishing effort that should be accounted for in network design, implementation, and impact evaluation.

Private management of African protected areas improves wildlife and tourism outcomes but with security concerns in conflict regions.

Protected areas can conserve wildlife and benefit people when managed effectively. African governments increasingly delegate the management of protected areas to private, nongovernmental organizations, hoping that private organizations' significant resources and technical capacities actualize protected areas' potential. Does private sector management improve outcomes compared to a counterfactual of government management? We leverage the transfer of management authority from governments to African Parks (AP)-the largest private manager of protected areas in Africa-to show that private management significantly improves wildlife outcomes via reduced elephant poaching and increased bird abundances. Our results also suggest that AP's management augments tourism, while the effect on rural wealth is inconclusive. However, AP's management increases the risk of armed groups targeting civilians, which could be an unintended outcome of AP's improved monitoring and enforcement systems. These findings reveal an intricate interplay between conservation, economic development, and security under privately managed protected areas in Africa.

Doubling the known diversity of a remote island fauna: marine bivalves of the Juan Fernández and Desventuradas oceanic archipelagos (Southeastern Pacific Ocean).

Juan Fernández and Desventuradas are two oceanic archipelagos located in the southeastern Pacific Ocean far off the Chilean coast that received protected status as marine parks in 2016. Remoteness and access difficulty contributed to historically poor biodiversity sampling and limited associated research. This is particularly noticeable for bivalves, with most prior regional publications focused on single taxa or un-illustrated checklists. This study investigates marine bivalves collected between the intertidal and 415 m depth during (1) the 1997 IOC97 expedition aboard the M/V Carlos Porter, with special focus on scuba-collected micro-mollusks of both archipelagos, (2) two expeditions by the R/V Anton Bruun (Cruise 12/1965 and Cruise 17/1966), and (3) Cruise 21 of USNS Eltanin under the United States Antarctic Program, which sampled at Juan Fernández in 1965. Also, relevant historical material of the British H.M.S. Challenger Expedition (1873-1876), the Swedish Pacific Expedition (1916-1917), and by German zoologist Ludwig H. Plate (1893-1895) is critically revised. A total of 48 species are recognized and illustrated, including 19 new species (described herein) and six other potentially new species. The presence of two species mentioned in the literature for the region (Aulacomya atra and Saccella cuneata) could not be confirmed. The genera Verticipronus and Halonympha are reported for the first time from the Eastern Pacific, as are Anadara and Condylocardia from Chilean waters. Lectotypes are designated for Arca (Barbatia) platei and Mytilus algosus. These findings double the number of extant bivalve species known from the Juan Fernández and Desventuradas archipelagos, highlighting the lack of attention these islands groups have received in the past. A high percentage of species endemic to one or both archipelagos are recognized herein, accounting for almost 78% of the total. The newly recognized level of bivalve endemism supports the consideration of Juan Fernández and Desventuradas as two different biogeographic units (Provinces or Ecoregions) of the Eastern Pacific Ocean.

Enhancing Human Health and Wellbeing through Sustainably and Equitably Unlocking a Healthy Ocean's Potential.

A healthy ocean is essential for human health, and yet the links between the ocean and human health are often overlooked. By providing new medicines, technologies, energy, foods, recreation, and inspiration, the ocean has the potential to enhance human health and wellbeing. However, climate change, pollution, biodiversity loss, and inequity threaten both ocean and human health. Sustainable realisation of the ocean's health benefits will require overcoming these challenges through equitable partnerships, enforcement of laws and treaties, robust monitoring, and use of metrics that assess both the ocean's natural capital and human wellbeing. Achieving this will require an explicit focus on human rights, equity, sustainability, and social justice. In addition to highlighting the potential unique role of the healthcare sector, we offer science-based recommendations to protect both ocean health and human health, and we highlight the unique potential of the healthcare sector tolead this effort.

A Typology of National Park Co-management Agreements in the Era of Reconciliation in Canada.

Parks Canada, in response to commitments undertaken towards reconciliation, has signaled its readiness to reassess the participation of Indigenous peoples in the co-management of national parks, national park reserves, and national marine conservation areas (NMCAs). However, the effectiveness of co-management, as the established framework underpinning these and other longstanding partnerships between the state and Indigenous groups, has been disputed, based on an uneven track record in meeting the needs, interests, and aspirations of Indigenous communities. This paper explores the potential of co-management to facilitate reconciliation within national parks, reserves and NMCAs by developing a typology of various types of co-management agreements. Addressing a critical knowledge gap in co-management governance, we provide a comprehensive review of 23 negotiated co-management agreements involving the state and Indigenous groups in a national park context. The resulting typology categorizes these agreements according to contextual factors and governance arrangements, offering insights into the feasibility of shared governance approaches with Parks Canada. Moreover, it identifies the strengths and weaknesses of co-management agreements in fulfilling reconciliation commitments. Our findings indicate that, although Parks Canada has implemented innovative approaches to co-management and shown a willingness to support Indigenous-led conservation efforts, true shared governance with Indigenous groups, as defined by international standards, is limited by the Canadian government's evident reluctance to amend the foundational legislation to effectively share authority in national parks.

Anthropogenic land uses lead to changes in limnological variables in Neotropical streams.

Streams are vulnerable to anthropogenic impacts, such as changes in land use, which reflect on water quality and can be evaluated by abiotic variables. In this context, the aims were to compare the abiotic values recorded in streams of different land use categories with the limits established by National legislation, and to analyze changes in abiotic variables in response to different land use impacts. Thus, 17 streams located in southern Brazil were sampled and grouped into urban, rural, and protected areas (PA) categories. The results showed the major impacts in urban streams. However, some variables in rural streams and PA also exceeded local legislation limits. Conductivity, total dissolved solids, salinity, ammoniacal nitrogen and coliforms were significantly higher in the urban streams. Contrary to expectations, the highest levels of manganese were found in PA streams. The relationship between abiotic variables and land uses suggests possible contamination by sewage in urban streams and by pesticides in rural streams. The abiotic similarity between rural and PA streams indicates that the conservation of these water bodies is ineffective. We suggest the monitoring of these environments and measures to mitigate the impacts to seek the restoration of ecosystem services and the well-being of human populations.

A sustainable blue economy may not be possible in Tanzania without cutting emissions.

Balancing blue growth with the conservation of wild species and habitats is a key challenge for global ocean management. This is exacerbated in Global South nations, such as Tanzania, where climate-driven ocean change requires delicate marine spatial planning (MSP) trade-offs to ensure climate resilience of marine resources relied upon by coastal communities. Here, we identified challenges and opportunities that climate change presents to the near-term spatial management of Tanzania's artisanal fishing sector, marine protected areas and seaweed farming. Specifically, spatial meta-analysis of climate modelling for the region was carried out to estimate the natural distribution of climate resilience in the marine resources that support these socially important sectors. We estimated changes within the next 20 and 40 years, using modelling projections forced under global emissions trajectories, as well as a wealth of GIS and habitat suitability data derived from globally distributed programmes. Multi-decadal analyses indicated that long-term climate change trends and extreme weather present important challenges to the activity of these sectors, locally and regionally. Only in few instances did we identify areas exhibiting climate resilience and opportunities for sectoral expansion. Including these climate change refugia and bright spots in effective ocean management strategies may serve as nature-based solutions: promoting adaptive capacity in some of Tanzania's most vulnerable economic sectors; creating wage-gaining opportunities that promote gender parity; and delivering some economic benefits of a thriving ocean where possible. Without curbs in global emissions, however, a bleak future may emerge for globally valuable biodiversity hosted in Tanzania, and for its coastal communities, despite the expansion of protected areas or curbs in other pressures. Growing a sustainable ocean economy in this part of the Global South remains a substantial challenge without global decarbonization.

Dynamic shifts of functional diversity through climate-resilient strategies and farmland restoration in a mountain protected area.

Land-use land-cover (LULC) change contributes to major ecological impacts, particularly in areas undergoing land abandonment, inducing modifications on habitat structure and species distributions. Alternative land-use policies are potential solutions to alleviate the negative impacts of contemporary tendencies of LULC change on biodiversity. This work analyzes these tendencies in the Montesinho Natural Park (Portugal), an area representative of European abandoned mountain rural areas. We built ecological niche models for 226 species of vertebrates (amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals) and vascular plants, using a consensus modelling approach available in the R package 'biomod2'. We projected the models to contemporary (2018) and future (2050) LULC scenarios, under four scenarios aiming to secure relevant ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation for 2050: an afforestation and a rewilding scenario, focused on climate-smart management strategies, and a farmland and an agroforestry recovery scenario, based on re-establishing human traditional activities. We quantified the influences of these scenarios on biodiversity through species habitat suitability changes for 2018-2050. We analyzed how these management strategies could influence indices of functional diversity (functional richness, functional evenness and functional dispersion) within the park. Habitat suitability changes revealed complementary patterns among scenarios. Afforestation and rewilding scenarios benefited more species adapted to habitats with low human influence, such as forests and open woodlands. The highest functional richness and dispersion was predicted for rewilding scenarios, which could improve landscape restoration and provide opportunities for the expansion and recolonization of forest areas by native species. The recovery of traditional farming and agroforestry activities results in the lowest values of functional richness, but these strategies contribute to complex landscape matrices with diversified habitats and resources. Moreover, this strategy could offer opportunities for fire suppression and increase landscape fire resistance. An integrative approach reconciling rewilding initiatives with the recovery of extensive agricultural and agroforestry activities is potentially an harmonious strategy for supporting the provision of ecosystem services while securing biodiversity conservation and functional diversity within the natural park.

Forest Orchids under Future Climate Scenarios: Habitat Suitability Modelling to Inform Conservation Strategies.

Orchidaceae is one of the largest and most diverse families of flowering plants in the world but also one of the most threatened. Climate change is a global driver of plant distribution and may be the cause of their disappearance in some regions. Forest orchids are associated with specific biotic and abiotic environmental factors, that influence their local presence/absence. Changes in these conditions can lead to significant differences in species distribution. We studied three forest orchids belonging to different genera (Cephalanthera, Epipactis and Limodorum) for their potential current and future distribution in a protected area (PA) of the Northern Apennines. A Habitat Suitability Model was constructed for each species based on presence-only data and the Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) was used for the modelling. Climatic, edaphic, topographic, anthropogenic and land cover variables were used as environmental predictors and processed in the model. The aim is to identify the environmental factors that most influence the current species distribution and the areas that are likely to contain habitats suitable for providing refuge for forest orchids and ensuring their survival under future scenarios. This will allow PA authorities to decide whether to invest more resources in conserving areas that are potential refuges for threatened species.

Host preference patterns in domestic and wild settings: Insights into Anopheles feeding behavior.

The adaptation of Anopheles malaria vectors to domestic settings is directly linked to their ability to feed on humans. The strength of this species-habitat association is unequal across the species within the genus, with the major vectors being particularly dependent on humans. However, our understanding of how blood-feeding behavior interacts with and adapts to environmental settings, including the presence of humans, remains limited. Using a field-based approach, we first investigated Anopheles community structure and feeding behavior patterns in domestic and sylvatic settings in La Lopé National Park in Gabon, Central Africa. We characterized the preference indices using a dual-host choice sampling approach across mosquito species, habitats, and seasons. We then quantified the plastic biting behavior of mosquito species in each habitat. We collected individuals from 16 Anopheles species that exhibited significant differences in species composition and abundance between sylvatic and domestic settings. The host-seeking behavior also varied among the seven most abundant species. The general attractiveness to each host, human or animal, remained relatively constant for each species, but with significant variations between habitats across species. These variations, to more generalist and to more anthropophilic behavior, were related to seasonal changes and distance from the village, respectively. Finally, we pointed out that the host choice of major malaria vectors changed in the absence of humans, revealing a plastic feeding behavior of these species. This study highlights the effect of humans on Anopheles distribution and feeding evolution. The characterization of feeding behavior in wild and domestic settings provides opportunities to better understand the interplay between genetic determinants of host preference and ecological factors. Our findings suggest that protected areas may offer alternative thriving conditions to major malaria vectors.

Analysis of Priority Conservation Areas Using Habitat Quality Models and MaxEnt Models.

This study investigated core habitat areas for yellow-throated martens (Martes flavigula) and leopard cats (Prionailurus bengalensis), two endangered forest species sensitive to habitat fragmentation in Korea. Overlaying the InVEST-HQ and MaxEnt models, priority conservation areas were identified by analyzing gaps in currently protected areas. The InVEST-HQ model showed that habitat quality ranged from 0 to 0.86 on a scale from 0 to 1, and the majority of the most suitable areas on the Environmental Conservation Value Assessment Map, designated as grade 1, were derived correctly. The MaxEnt model analysis accurately captured the ecological characteristics of the yellow-throated marten and the leopard cat and identified probable regions of occurrence. We analyzed the most suitable yellow-throated marten and leopard cat habitats by superimposing the two results. Gap analysis determined gaps in existing protected areas and identified priority conservation areas. The core area (14.7%) was mainly distributed in forests such as the Baekdudaegan Mountains Reserve in regions such as Gyeongbuk, Gyeongnam, and Gangwon; 12.9% was outside protected areas, and only 1.8% was protected. The overlap results between protected and non-protected areas were compared with different land use types. Conservation priority areas were identified as those with more than 95% forest cover, offering an appropriate habitat for the two species. These findings can be used to identify priority conservation areas through objective habitat analysis and as a basis for protected area designation and assessment of endangered species habitat conservation, thereby contributing to biodiversity and ecosystem conservation.