Perspective on statistical power and equivalence tests.

The use of both sexes or genders should be considered in experimental design, analysis, and reporting. Since there is no requirement to double the sample size or to have sufficient power to study sex differences, challenges for the statistical analysis can arise. In this article, we focus on the topics of statistical power and ways to increase this power. We also discuss the choice of an appropriate design and statistical method and include a separate section on equivalence tests needed to show the absence of a relevant difference.

Perspectives on technology: Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) interobserver variability.

OBJECTIVES: To explore the topic of Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) interobserver variability, including a discussion of major sources, mitigation approaches, and future directions. METHODS: A narrative review of PI-RADS interobserver variability. RESULTS: PI-RADS was developed in 2012 to set technical standards for prostate magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), reduce interobserver variability at interpretation, and improve diagnostic accuracy in the MRI-directed diagnostic pathway for detection of clinically significant prostate cancer. While PI-RADS has been validated in selected research cohorts with prostate cancer imaging experts, subsequent prospective studies in routine clinical practice demonstrate wide variability in diagnostic performance. Radiologist and biopsy operator experience are the most important contributing drivers of high-quality care among multiple interrelated factors including variability in MRI hardware and technique, image quality, and population and patient-specific factors such as prostate cancer disease prevalence. Iterative improvements in PI-RADS have helped flatten the curve for novice readers and reduce variability. Innovations in image quality reporting, administrative and organisational workflows, and artificial intelligence hold promise in improving variability even further. CONCLUSION: Continued research into PI-RADS is needed to facilitate benchmark creation, reader certification, and independent accreditation, which are systems-level interventions needed to uphold and maintain high-quality prostate MRI across entire populations.

Estimating the effect of latent time-varying count exposures using multiple lists.

A major challenge in longitudinal built-environment health studies is the accuracy of commercial business databases that are used to characterize dynamic food environments. Different databases often provide conflicting exposure measures on the same subject due to different source credibilities. As on-site verification is not feasible for historical data, we suggest combining multiple databases to correct the bias in health effect estimates due to measurement error in any 1 datasource. We propose a joint model for the time-varying health outcomes, observed count exposures, and latent true count exposures. Our model estimates the time-specific quality of sources and incorporates time dependence of true count exposure by Poisson integer-valued first-order autoregressive process. We take a Bayesian nonparametric approach to flexibly account for location-specific exposures. By resolving the discordance between different databases, our method reduces the bias in the longitudinal health effect of the true exposures. Our method is demonstrated with childhood obesity data in California public schools with respect to convenience store exposures in school neighborhoods from 2001 to 2008.

Utility of self-report antiretroviral adherence for predicting HIV viral load among persons who inject drugs in Hai Phong Vietnam: assessing differences by methamphetamine use.

ABSTRACTIn resource-limited settings, alternatives to HIV viral load testing may be necessary to monitor the health of people living with HIV. We assessed the utility of self-report antiretroviral therapy (ART) to screen for HIV viral load among persons who inject drugs in Hai Phong Vietnam, and consider differences by recent methamphetamine use. From 2016 to 2018 we recruited PWID through cross sectional surveys and collected self-report ART adherence and HIV viral load to estimate sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV) and likelihood ratios (LR+, LR-) for self-reported ART adherence as a screening test for HIV viral load. We used three HIV viral load thresholds: < 1000, 500 and 250 copies/mL; laboratory-confirmed HIV viral load was the gold standard. Among 792 PWID recruited, PPV remained above 90% regardless of recent methamphetamine use with slightly higher PPV among those not reporting recent methamphetamine use. The results remained consistent across all three HIV viral load thresholds. Our findings suggest that when HIV viral load testing is not possible, self-reported ART adherence may inform decisions about how to prioritize HIV viral load testing among PWID. The high PPV values suggest self-reported high ART adherence indicates likely HIV viral suppression, irrespective of methamphetamine use.

Comment on "Does the 5-2-1 criteria identify patients with advanced Parkinson's disease? Real-world screening accuracy and burden of 5-2-1-positive patients in 7 countries".

The 5-2-1 criteria are intended to help general neurologists identify patients with advanced Parkinson's disease who may benefit from treatment optimisation, such as with a device-aided therapy. Although the 5-2-1 criteria claim to address an unmet need, we urge readers to cautiously interpret the results of this validation study.

Validation of diagnoses of liver disorders in users of systemic azole antifungal medication in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Liver disorders are important adverse effects associated with antifungal drug treatment. However, the accuracy of Clinical International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes in identifying liver disorders for register based research is not well-established. This study aimed to determine the positive predictive value (PPV) of the ICD-10 codes for identifying patients with toxic liver disease, hepatic failure, and jaundice among patients with systemic antifungal treatment. METHODS: Data from the Swedish Prescribed Drug Register and the National Patient Register were utilized to identify adult patients who received systemic azole antifungal drugs and had a recorded diagnosis of toxic liver disease (K71.0, K71.1, K71.2, K71.6, K71.8, K71.9), hepatic failure (K72.0, K72.9), or jaundice (R17) between 2005 and 2016. The medical records of all included patients were reviewed. Prespecified criteria were used to re-evaluate and confirm each diagnosis, serving as the gold standard to calculate PPVs with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for each diagnostic group. RESULTS: Among the 115 included patients, 26 were diagnosed with toxic liver disease, 58 with hepatic failure, and 31 with jaundice. Toxic liver disease was confirmed in 14 out of 26 patients, yielding a PPV of 53.8% (95% CI 33.4-73.4%). Hepatic failure was confirmed in 26 out of 38 patients, resulting in a PPV of 62.1% (95% CI 48.4-74.5%). The highest PPV was found in jaundice, with 30 confirmed diagnoses out of 31, yielding a PPV of 96.8% (95% CI 83.3-99.9%). CONCLUSION: Among patients who received azole antifungal treatment and were subsequently diagnosed with a liver disorder, the PPV for the diagnosis of jaundice was high, while the PPVs for toxic liver disease and hepatic failure were lower.

A study on diagnostic performance of different immunohematological diagnostic tests in assessing the prevalence of ABO Hemolytic Disease of Newborn in the antenatal O group mothers and their neonatal outcome in a tertiary care hospital in Northern India.

BACKGROUND: Hemolytic disease of the newborn (HDN) results in the decreased lifespan of the red cells. HDN related to ABO incompatibility is mostly unnoticed because routine screening is not being done. This study was done to assess the prevalence of ABO-HDN and to compare different immunohematological tests. Methods-In this study 213 O group mothers and the 122 ABO-incompatible newborns born to them were included. Quantifying the maternal IgG anti-A/anti-B antibody titer was done by Conventional Tube Technique (CTT) using Dithiothreitol (DTT) pretreated maternal serum. Hemolysin test was performed on the mothers having titer > 256. These cases were followed up and, after delivery, were monitored for ABO HDN, along with direct antiglobulin testing and elution studies. The prevalence of ABO-HDN was calculated, and the different diagnostic parameters of the tests were calculated. Results- The prevalence of ABO-HDN in our population was estimated to be 1.7%, 6.1% & 10.6% in our population, O group mothers, and O group mothers with ABOincompatible newborns, respectively. Maternal titer≥ 512 strongly correlated with ABOHDN. DAT positivity is a good predictor of ABO-HDN, especially using sensitive techniques. Maternal IgG titers have the highest sensitivity & Negative Predictive Value, while DAT has the highest specificity & Positive Predictive Value. Conclusion - Maternal ABO antibody titration may be advocated in the centers to identify high-risk groups. It can advocate institutional delivery and dedicated follow-up of newborns with ABO-HDN. Blood grouping & DAT may be performed in all newborns born to O blood group to identify high-risk cases.

Positive predictive value of urine analysis with reflex criteria at a large community hospital.

INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESIS: Urine analysis with reflex to culture (URTC) is employed as a diagnostic aid for urinary tract infections (UTIs). Criteria utilized to determine whether a urine analysis (UA) will reflex varies owing to a lack of evidence-based guidance. Positive predictive value (PPV) of URTC varies across studies. The URTC criteria in this study included moderate or more white blood cells (> 5 high-power field [HPF]), few or more bacteria (> 1 HPF), and few or no epithelial cells (< 3 HPF). The purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which URTC predicts culture positivity. METHODS: This study was a single-center, retrospective evaluation at a large community hospital. A report of URTC ordered in adults in October 2020 was generated from the hospital's electronic database. The primary outcome was to determine the PPV of URTC criteria. The secondary outcome was to examine the differences in microscopic UA results between culture-positive and culture-negative urine. A total of 350 patients were included for analysis. The data was analyzed through descriptive statistics, Mann-Whitney U test, and multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: The results showed a PPV of 58%. Variables predicting negative culture included younger patients, males, and a reason for the visit to the emergency department of a fall/syncope or other. CONCLUSIONS: Further optimization is needed for URTC criteria and the appropriateness of ordering UAs to reduce operational laboratory costs and inappropriate antibiotic treatment.

Clinical evaluation of noninvasive prenatal testing for sex chromosome aneuploidies in 9,176 Korean pregnant women: a single-center retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the clinical significance of noninvasive prenatal testing (NIPT) for detecting fetal sex chromosome aneuploidies (SCAs) in Korean pregnant women. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed NIPT data from 9,176 women with singleton pregnancies referred to the CHA Biotech genome diagnostics center. Cell-free fetal DNA (cffDNA) was extracted from maternal peripheral blood, and high-throughput massively parallel sequencing was conducted. Subsequently, the positive NIPT results for SCA were validated via karyotype and chromosomal microarray analyses. RESULTS: Overall, 46 cases were SCA positive after NIPT, including 20, 12, 8, and 6 for Turner, triple X, Klinefelter, and Jacob syndromes, respectively. Among 37 women with invasive prenatal diagnosis, 19 had true positive NIPT results. The overall positive predictive value (PPV) of NIPT for detecting SCAs was 51.35%. The PPV was 18.75% for Turner, 88.89% for triple X, 71.43% for Klinefelter, and 60.00% for Jacob's syndromes. NIPT accuracy for detecting sex chromosome trisomies was higher than that for sex chromosome monosomy (P = 0.002). No significant correlation was observed between fetal SCA incidence and maternal age (P = 0.914), except for the borderline significance of Jacob's syndrome (P = 0.048). No significant differences were observed when comparing NIPT and karyotyping validation for fetal SCA according to pregnancy characteristics. CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that NIPT can reliably screen for SCAs, and it performed better in predicting sex chromosome trisomies compared with monosomy X. No correlation was observed between maternal age and fetal SCA incidence, and no association was observed between different pregnancy characteristics. The accuracy of these findings requires improvements; however, our study provides an important reference for clinical genetic counseling and further management. Larger scale studies, considering confounding factors, are required for accurate evaluation.

Medical diagnostic accuracy measures: an innovative approach based on the area under predictive values curves.

Positive and negative estimates are commonly used by clinicians to evaluate the likelihood of a disease stage being present based on test results. The predicted values are dependent on the prevalence of the underlying illness. However, for certain diseases or clinical conditions, the prevalence is unknown or different from one region to another or from one population to another, leading to an erroneous diagnosis. This article introduces innovative post-test diagnostic precision measures for continuous tests or biomarkers based on the combined areas under the predictive value curves for all possible prevalence values. The proposed measures do not vary as a function of the prevalence of the disease. They can be used to compare different diagnostic tests and/or biomarkers' abilities for rule-in, rule-out, and overall accuracy based on the combined areas under the predictive value curves. The relationship of the proposed measures to other diagnostic accuracy measures is discussed. We illustrate the proposed measures numerically and use a real data example on breast cancer.

Development and Validation of a National US Achalasia Cohort: The Veterans Affairs Achalasia Cohort (VA-AC).

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Achalasia is an esophageal motility disorder associated with significant morbidity, yet achalasia-associated risk factors and outcomes are not well-characterized. Our aim was to establish a national cohort of individuals with achalasia, utilizing Veterans Health Administration (VHA) data. METHODS: We iteratively developed combinations of International Classification of Diseases and Current Procedural Terminology code algorithms to validate an approach for identifying achalasia cases. We assessed algorithm accuracy for achalasia diagnosis through manual chart review of candidate achalasia cases and candidate non-achalasia controls. The prespecified end point chosen to establish algorithm performance success was achieving a 1-sided 95% confidence lower bound for a positive predictive value >85% for a random sample of 100 candidate achalasia cases. Once adequate performance was validated, we queried national VHA data to establish and characterize a cohort of individuals diagnosed with achalasia between 1999 and 2020. RESULTS: Three rounds of algorithm modification and validation were conducted to achieve the prespecified performance endpoint. In the final round, a combination of 3 or more International Classification of Diseases codes for achalasia in the subject's lifetime and a Current Procedural Terminology code for esophageal manometry achieved an observed 94% positive predictive value (1-sided 95% confidence lower bound of 88.5%) for identifying achalasia. Applying the algorithm to national VHA data identified a cohort of 2100 individuals with achalasia, with a median age 65 years and who were 93% male. CONCLUSIONS: Using a rigorous validation approach, we established a national cohort of 2100 individuals with achalasia within the VHA, one of the largest established to date. This cohort can be utilized to study risk factors for achalasia and outcomes over time.

Comparison of clinician diagnosis of COVID-19 with real time polymerase chain reaction in an adult-representative population in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Due to the high transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2, accurate diagnosis is essential for effective infection control, but the gold standard, real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), is costly, slow, and test capacity has at times been insufficient. We compared the accuracy of clinician diagnosis of COVID-19 against RT-PCR in a general adult population. METHODS: COVID-19 diagnosis data by 30th September 2021 for participants in an ongoing population-based cohort study of adults in Western Sweden were retrieved from registers, based on positive RT-PCR and clinician diagnosis using recommended ICD-10 codes. We calculated accuracy measures of clinician diagnosis using RT-PCR as reference for all subjects and stratified by age, gender, BMI, and comorbidity collected pre-COVID-19. RESULTS: Of 42,621 subjects, 3,936 (9.2%) and 5705 (13.4%) had had COVID-19 identified by RT-PCR and clinician diagnosis, respectively. Sensitivity and specificity of clinician diagnosis against RT-PCR were 78% (95%CI 77-80%) and 93% (95%CI 93-93%), respectively. Positive predictive value (PPV) was 54% (95%CI 53-55%), while negative predictive value (NPV) was 98% (95%CI 98-98%) and Youden's index 71% (95%CI 70-72%). These estimates were similar between men and women, across age groups, BMI categories, and between patients with and without asthma. However, while specificity, NPV, and Youden's index were similar between patients with and without chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), sensitivity was slightly higher in patients with (84% [95%CI 74-90%]) than those without (78% [95%CI 77-79%]) COPD. CONCLUSIONS: The accuracy of clinician diagnosis for COVID-19 is adequate, regardless of gender, age, BMI, and asthma, and thus can be used for screening purposes to supplement RT-PCR.

Post-test diagnostic accuracy measures under tree ordering of disease classes.

The medical field commonly employs post-test measures such as predictive values and likelihood ratios to assess diagnostic accuracy. Predictive values, including positive and negative values (PPV and NPV), indicate the probability that individuals have a target health condition based on test results. On the other hand, likelihood ratios, including positive and negative ratios (LR+ and LR- respectively), compare the probability of a particular test result between the diseased and non-diseased groups. While predictive values are useful in evaluating diagnostic test accuracy in populations with varying disease prevalence, likelihood ratios provide a direct link between pre-test and post-test probabilities in specific patients. In this study, we introduce and analyze a new approach called generalized predictive values and likelihood ratios, using a tree ordering of disease classes. We evaluate the effectiveness of these methods through simulation studies and illustrate their use with real data on lung cancer.

Validity of claims-based diagnoses for infectious diseases common among immunocompromised patients in Japan.

BACKGROUND: To validate Japanese claims-based disease-identifying algorithms for herpes zoster (HZ), Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB), nontuberculous mycobacteria infections (NTM), and Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PJP). METHODS: VALIDATE-J, a multicenter, cross-sectional, retrospective study, reviewed the administrative claims data and medical records from two Japanese hospitals. Claims-based algorithms were developed by experts to identify HZ, MTB, NTM, and PJP cases among patients treated 2012-2016. Diagnosis was confirmed with three gold standard definitions; positive predictive values (PPVs) were calculated for prevalent (regardless of baseline disease-free period) and incident (preceded by a 12-month disease-free period for the target conditions) cases. RESULTS: Of patients identified using claims-based algorithms, a random sample of 377 cases was included: HZ (n = 95 [55 incident cases]); MTB (n = 100 [58]); NTM (n = 82 [50]); and PJP (n = 100 [84]). PPVs ranged from 67.4-70.5% (HZ), 67.0-90.0% (MTB), 18.3-63.4% (NTM), and 20.0-45.0% (PJP) for prevalent cases, and 69.1-70.9% (HZ), 58.6-87.9% (MTB), 10.0-56.0% (NTM), and 22.6-51.2% (PJP) for incident cases, across definitions. Adding treatment to the algorithms increased PPVs for HZ, with a small increase observed for prevalent cases of NTM. CONCLUSIONS: VALIDATE-J demonstrated moderate to high PPVs for disease-identifying algorithms for HZ and MTB using Japanese claims data.

Accuracy of congenital anomaly coding in live birth children recorded in European health care databases, a EUROlinkCAT study.

Electronic health care databases are increasingly being used to investigate the epidemiology of congenital anomalies (CAs) although there are concerns about their accuracy. The EUROlinkCAT project linked data from eleven EUROCAT registries to electronic hospital databases. The coding of CAs in electronic hospital databases was compared to the (gold standard) codes in the EUROCAT registries. For birth years 2010-2014 all linked live birth CA cases and all children identified in the hospital databases with a CA code were analysed. Registries calculated sensitivity and Positive Predictive Value (PPV) for 17 selected CAs. Pooled estimates for sensitivity and PPV were then calculated for each anomaly using random effects meta-analyses. Most registries linked more than 85% of their cases to hospital data. Gastroschisis, cleft lip with or without cleft palate and Down syndrome were recorded in hospital databases with high accuracy (sensitivity and PPV ≥ 85%). Hypoplastic left heart syndrome, spina bifida, Hirschsprung's disease, omphalocele and cleft palate showed high sensitivity (≥ 85%), but low or heterogeneous PPV, indicating that hospital data was complete but may contain false positives. The remaining anomaly subgroups in our study, showed low or heterogeneous sensitivity and PPV, indicating that the information in the hospital database was incomplete and of variable validity. Electronic health care databases cannot replace CA registries, although they can be used as an additional ascertainment source for CA registries. CA registries are still the most appropriate data source to study the epidemiology of CAs.

Effectiveness of PET/CT and VATS for detecting and treating internal mammary lymph node metastasis: a case series.

OBJECTIVE: We occasionally observed internal mammary lymph node metastases of breast cancer in a clinical setting. However, unlike a standard treatment in axillary metastasis, surgical resection for internal mammary lymph node metastasis is not prevalent because of unclear safety and benefits. Thus, we aimed to evaluate the diagnostic ability and clinical outcomes of positron emission tomography/computed tomography and video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery. METHODS: We retrospectively investigated 34 patients with breast cancer with abnormal 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose uptake in internal mammary lymph nodes, at a single centre, between January 2015 and June 2022 and identified 11 female patients (mean age ± SD, 51.5 ± 12.9 years) who underwent video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery resection. Positron emission tomography/computed tomography was used to determine the clinical stage. We reviewed the surgical pathology of eleven and two patients who underwent direct-view internal mammary lymph node resection to calculate the positive predictive value of positron emission tomography/computed tomography. RESULTS: Ipsilateral fluorodeoxyglucose accumulation was observed, with an average maximum standardized uptake value of 8.9 (range, 3.1-24.0). No perioperative complications occurred, and all patients who underwent video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery alone were discharged from the hospital on post-operative day 2 or 3. The estimated positive predictive value was 80%. All patients were alive, and seven of nine patients with metastasis were relapse-free, at a mean follow-up period of 17.9 months (range, 1-51). However, two patients had recurrence at 16 and 14 months after surgery for internal mammary lymph node relapse. CONCLUSIONS: Radiotherapy is the standard treatment for suspected internal mammary lymph node metastasis detected using positron emission tomography/computed tomography; however, we could safely perform minimally invasive video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery resection, leading to a definite pathological diagnosis.

Validation of ICD-10 hospital discharge diagnosis codes to identify incident and recurrent ischemic stroke from a US integrated healthcare system.

PURPOSE: This study validated incident and recurrent ischemic stroke identified by International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10) hospital discharge diagnosis codes. METHODS: Using electronic health records (EHR) of adults (≥18 years) receiving care from Kaiser Permanente Southern California with ICD-10 hospital discharge diagnosis codes of ischemic stroke (I63.x, G46.3, and G46.4) between October 2015 and September 2020, we identified 75 patients with both incident and recurrent stroke events (total 150 cases). Two neurologists independently evaluated validity of ICD-10 codes through chart reviews. RESULTS: The positive predictive value (PPV, 95% CI) for incident stroke was 93% (95% CI: 88%, 99%) and the PPV for recurrent stroke was 72% (95% CI: 62%, 82%). The PPV for recurrent stroke improved after applying a gap of 20 days (PPV of 75%; 95% CI: 63%, 87%) or removing hospital admissions related to stroke-related procedures (PPV of 78%; 95% CI: 68%, 88%). CONCLUSION: The ICD-10 hospital discharge diagnosis codes for ischemic stroke showed a high PPV for incident cases, while the PPV for recurrent cases were less optimal. Algorithms to improve the accuracy of ICD-10 codes for recurrent ischemic stroke may be necessary.

Validation of claims-based algorithms to identify non-live birth outcomes.

PURPOSE: Perinatal epidemiology studies using healthcare utilization databases are often restricted to live births, largely due to the lack of established algorithms to identify non-live births. The study objective was to develop and validate claims-based algorithms for the ascertainment of non-live births. METHODS: Using the Mass General Brigham Research Patient Data Registry 2000-2014, we assembled a cohort of women enrolled in Medicaid with a non-live birth. Based on ≥1 inpatient or ≥2 outpatient diagnosis/procedure codes, we identified and randomly sampled 100 potential stillbirth, spontaneous abortion, and termination cases each. For the secondary definitions, we excluded cases with codes for other pregnancy outcomes within ±5 days of the outcome of interest and relaxed the definitions for spontaneous abortion and termination by allowing cases with one outpatient diagnosis only. Cases were adjudicated based on medical chart review. We estimated the positive predictive value (PPV) for each outcome. RESULTS: The PPV was 71.0% (95% CI, 61.1-79.6) for stillbirth; 79.0% (69.7-86.5) for spontaneous abortion, and 93.0% (86.1-97.1) for termination. When excluding cases with adjacent codes for other pregnancy outcomes and further relaxing the definition, the PPV increased to 80.6% (69.5-88.9) for stillbirth, 86.6% (80.5-91.3) for spontaneous abortion and 94.9% (91.1-97.4) for termination. The PPV for the composite outcome using the relaxed definition was 94.4% (92.3-96.1). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest non-live birth outcomes can be identified in a valid manner in epidemiological studies based on healthcare utilization databases.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Scores Predict Patients Under Surveillance at Low Risk of Benefit and High Risk of Harm.

AIMS: Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is recommended for patients with cirrhosis. Multiple risk scores aim to stratify HCC risk, potentially allowing individualized surveillance strategies. We sought to validate four risk scores and quantify the consequences of surveillance via the calculation of numbers needed to benefit (NNB) and harm (NNH) according to classification by risk score strata. METHODS: Data were collected on 482 patients with cirrhosis during 2013-2014, with follow-up until 31/12/2019. Risk scores (aMAP, Toronto risk index, ADRESS HCC, HCC risk score) were derived from index clinic results. The area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated for each. Additionally, per-risk strata, NNB was calculated as total surveillance ultrasounds per surveillance diagnosed early HCC (stage 0/A) and NNH as total ultrasounds performed per false positive (abnormal surveillance with normal follow-up imaging). RESULTS: 22 (4.6%) patients developed HCC. 77% (17/22) were diagnosed through surveillance, of which 13/17 (76%) were early stage. There were 88 false positives and no false negatives (normal surveillance result however subsequent HCC detection). Overall NNB and NNH were 241 and 36, respectively. No score was significantly superior using AUC. Patients classified as low risk demonstrated no surveillance benefit (AMAP, THRI) or had a high NNB of > 300/900 (ADRESS HCC, HCC risk score), with low NNH (24-38). CONCLUSION: Given the lack of benefit and increased harm through false positives in low-risk groups, a risk-based surveillance strategy may have the potential to reduce patient harm and increase benefit from HCC surveillance. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: This was not a clinical trial and the study was not pre-registered.

Ultrasound for diagnosis of postpartum retained products of conception-How accurate we are?

OBJECTIVE: Postpartum retained products of conception (RPOC) can cause short- and long-term complications. Diagnosis is based on ultrasound examination and treated with hysteroscopy. This study evaluated the size of RPOC that can be related to a positive pathology result for residua. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included women who underwent hysteroscopy for postpartum RPOC diagnosed by ultrasound, 4/2014-4/2022. Demographics, intrapartum, sonographic, intraoperative, and post-operative data were retrieved. We generated a ROC curve and found 7 mm was the statistically sonographic value for positive pathology for RPOC. Data between women with sonographic RPOC ≤ 7 mm and > 7 mm were compared. Positive and negative predictive values were calculated for RPOC pathology proved which was measured by ultrasound. RESULTS: Among 212 patients who underwent hysteroscopy due to suspected RPOC on ultrasound, 20 (9.4%) women had residua ≤ 7 mm and 192 (90.6%) had residua > 7 mm. The most common complaint was vaginal bleeding in 128 cases (60.4%); more so in the residua > 7 mm group (62.5% vs. 40%, p = .05). Among women with residua ≤ 7 mm, the interval from delivery to hysteroscopy was longer (117.4 ± 74.7 days vs. 78.8 ± 68.8 days, respectively; p = .02). Positive pathology was more frequent when residua was > 7 mm. PPV for diagnosis of 7 mm RPOC during pathology examination was 75.3% and NPV 50%. CONCLUSIONS: Sonographic evaluation after RPOC showed that residua > 7 mm was statistically correlated with positive RPOC in pathology and PPV of 75% and NPV of 50%. Due to the high NPV and low complication rate of office hysteroscopy, clinicians should consider intervention when any RPOC are measured during sonographic examination to reduce known long-term complications.