Toward a fine-scale population health monitoring system.

Understanding population health disparities is an essential component of equitable precision health efforts. Epidemiology research often relies on definitions of race and ethnicity, but these population labels may not adequately capture disease burdens and environmental factors impacting specific sub-populations. Here, we propose a framework for repurposing data from electronic health records (EHRs) in concert with genomic data to explore the demographic ties that can impact disease burdens. Using data from a diverse biobank in New York City, we identified 17 communities sharing recent genetic ancestry. We observed 1,177 health outcomes that were statistically associated with a specific group and demonstrated significant differences in the segregation of genetic variants contributing to Mendelian diseases. We also demonstrated that fine-scale population structure can impact the prediction of complex disease risk within groups. This work reinforces the utility of linking genomic data to EHRs and provides a framework toward fine-scale monitoring of population health.

Trans-ethnic and Ancestry-Specific Blood-Cell Genetics in 746,667 Individuals from 5 Global Populations.

Most loci identified by GWASs have been found in populations of European ancestry (EUR). In trans-ethnic meta-analyses for 15 hematological traits in 746,667 participants, including 184,535 non-EUR individuals, we identified 5,552 trait-variant associations at p < 5 × 10-9, including 71 novel associations not found in EUR populations. We also identified 28 additional novel variants in ancestry-specific, non-EUR meta-analyses, including an IL7 missense variant in South Asians associated with lymphocyte count in vivo and IL-7 secretion levels in vitro. Fine-mapping prioritized variants annotated as functional and generated 95% credible sets that were 30% smaller when using the trans-ethnic as opposed to the EUR-only results. We explored the clinical significance and predictive value of trans-ethnic variants in multiple populations and compared genetic architecture and the effect of natural selection on these blood phenotypes between populations. Altogether, our results for hematological traits highlight the value of a more global representation of populations in genetic studies.

The Polygenic and Monogenic Basis of Blood Traits and Diseases.

Blood cells play essential roles in human health, underpinning physiological processes such as immunity, oxygen transport, and clotting, which when perturbed cause a significant global health burden. Here we integrate data from UK Biobank and a large-scale international collaborative effort, including data for 563,085 European ancestry participants, and discover 5,106 new genetic variants independently associated with 29 blood cell phenotypes covering a range of variation impacting hematopoiesis. We holistically characterize the genetic architecture of hematopoiesis, assess the relevance of the omnigenic model to blood cell phenotypes, delineate relevant hematopoietic cell states influenced by regulatory genetic variants and gene networks, identify novel splice-altering variants mediating the associations, and assess the polygenic prediction potential for blood traits and clinical disorders at the interface of complex and Mendelian genetics. These results show the power of large-scale blood cell trait GWAS to interrogate clinically meaningful variants across a wide allelic spectrum of human variation.

Genetic analyses of diverse populations improves discovery for complex traits.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have laid the foundation for investigations into the biology of complex traits, drug development and clinical guidelines. However, the majority of discovery efforts are based on data from populations of European ancestry1-3. In light of the differential genetic architecture that is known to exist between populations, bias in representation can exacerbate existing disease and healthcare disparities. Critical variants may be missed if they have a low frequency or are completely absent in European populations, especially as the field shifts its attention towards rare variants, which are more likely to be population-specific4-10. Additionally, effect sizes and their derived risk prediction scores derived in one population may not accurately extrapolate to other populations11,12. Here we demonstrate the value of diverse, multi-ethnic participants in large-scale genomic studies. The Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) study conducted a GWAS of 26 clinical and behavioural phenotypes in 49,839 non-European individuals. Using strategies tailored for analysis of multi-ethnic and admixed populations, we describe a framework for analysing diverse populations, identify 27 novel loci and 38 secondary signals at known loci, as well as replicate 1,444 GWAS catalogue associations across these traits. Our data show evidence of effect-size heterogeneity across ancestries for published GWAS associations, substantial benefits for fine-mapping using diverse cohorts and insights into clinical implications. In the United States-where minority populations have a disproportionately higher burden of chronic conditions13-the lack of representation of diverse populations in genetic research will result in inequitable access to precision medicine for those with the highest burden of disease. We strongly advocate for continued, large genome-wide efforts in diverse populations to maximize genetic discovery and reduce health disparities.

Discovery and fine-mapping of height loci via high-density imputation of GWASs in individuals of African ancestry.

Although many loci have been associated with height in European ancestry populations, very few have been identified in African ancestry individuals. Furthermore, many of the known loci have yet to be generalized to and fine-mapped within a large-scale African ancestry sample. We performed sex-combined and sex-stratified meta-analyses in up to 52,764 individuals with height and genome-wide genotyping data from the African Ancestry Anthropometry Genetics Consortium (AAAGC). We additionally combined our African ancestry meta-analysis results with published European genome-wide association study (GWAS) data. In the African ancestry analyses, we identified three novel loci (SLC4A3, NCOA2, ECD/FAM149B1) in sex-combined results and two loci (CRB1, KLF6) in women only. In the African plus European sex-combined GWAS, we identified an additional three novel loci (RCCD1, G6PC3, CEP95) which were equally driven by AAAGC and European results. Among 39 genome-wide significant signals at known loci, conditioning index SNPs from European studies identified 20 secondary signals. Two of the 20 new secondary signals and none of the 8 novel loci had minor allele frequencies (MAF) < 5%. Of 802 known European height signals, 643 displayed directionally consistent associations with height, of which 205 were nominally significant (p < 0.05) in the African ancestry sex-combined sample. Furthermore, 148 of 241 loci contained ≤20 variants in the credible sets that jointly account for 99% of the posterior probability of driving the associations. In summary, trans-ethnic meta-analyses revealed novel signals and further improved fine-mapping of putative causal variants in loci shared between African and European ancestry populations.

Second-Line Biologic Therapy Following Tumor Necrosis Factor Antagonist Failure: A Real-World Propensity Score-Weighted Analysis.

BACKGROUND& AIMS: Tumor necrosis factor (TNF) antagonists often are used as first-line medications to treat moderate to severe inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), but many patients do not achieve or maintain response. Our aim was to compare the effectiveness of second-line treatments (ustekinumab, vedolizumab, or a second TNF antagonist) after TNF antagonist exposure in patients with Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) from 2 electronic health records-based cohorts. METHODS: We identified patients with prior TNF antagonist exposure who switched to a different biologic in the Mount Sinai Health System (MSHS) electronic health records (CD, n = 527; UC, n = 165) and the Study of a Prospective Adult Research Cohort (SPARC) from the Inflammatory Bowel Disease Plexus Program of the Crohn's & Colitis Foundation (CD, n = 412; UC, n = 129). Treatment failure was defined as the composite of any IBD-related surgery, IBD-related hospitalization, new prescription of oral/intravenous corticosteroids, or need to switch to a third biologic agent. Time-to-event analysis was conducted with inverse probability of treatment-weighted data. RESULTS: Overall, treatment failure occurred in 85% of MSHS and 72% of SPARC CD patients. In SPARC, the likelihood of treatment failure was significantly lower with ustekinumab compared with vedolizumab as second-line treatment (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.54-0.82; P < .001), a trend confirmed in MSHS (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.77-1.04; P = .15). In both cohorts, the superiority of ustekinumab compared with vedolizumab was shown when considering treatment failure as prescription of steroids or a third biologic agent. In UC, no differences between second-line treatment groups were identified. CONCLUSIONS: In 2 independent real-world cohort settings, second-line therapy in CD with ustekinumab after TNF antagonist treatment failure was associated with a lower likelihood of treatment failure than second-line vedolizumab.

Genetic loci and prioritization of genes for kidney function decline derived from a meta-analysis of 62 longitudinal genome-wide association studies.

Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) reflects kidney function. Progressive eGFR-decline can lead to kidney failure, necessitating dialysis or transplantation. Hundreds of loci from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for eGFR help explain population cross section variability. Since the contribution of these or other loci to eGFR-decline remains largely unknown, we derived GWAS for annual eGFR-decline and meta-analyzed 62 longitudinal studies with eGFR assessed twice over time in all 343,339 individuals and in high-risk groups. We also explored different covariate adjustment. Twelve genome-wide significant independent variants for eGFR-decline unadjusted or adjusted for eGFR-baseline (11 novel, one known for this phenotype), including nine variants robustly associated across models were identified. All loci for eGFR-decline were known for cross-sectional eGFR and thus distinguished a subgroup of eGFR loci. Seven of the nine variants showed variant-by-age interaction on eGFR cross section (further about 350,000 individuals), which linked genetic associations for eGFR-decline with age-dependency of genetic cross-section associations. Clinically important were two to four-fold greater genetic effects on eGFR-decline in high-risk subgroups. Five variants associated also with chronic kidney disease progression mapped to genes with functional in-silico evidence (UMOD, SPATA7, GALNTL5, TPPP). An unfavorable versus favorable nine-variant genetic profile showed increased risk odds ratios of 1.35 for kidney failure (95% confidence intervals 1.03-1.77) and 1.27 for acute kidney injury (95% confidence intervals 1.08-1.50) in over 2000 cases each, with matched controls). Thus, we provide a large data resource, genetic loci, and prioritized genes for kidney function decline, which help inform drug development pipelines revealing important insights into the age-dependency of kidney function genetics.

AKI in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Early reports indicate that AKI is common among patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and associated with worse outcomes. However, AKI among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in the United States is not well described. METHODS: This retrospective, observational study involved a review of data from electronic health records of patients aged ≥18 years with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the Mount Sinai Health System from February 27 to May 30, 2020. We describe the frequency of AKI and dialysis requirement, AKI recovery, and adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with mortality. RESULTS: Of 3993 hospitalized patients with COVID-19, AKI occurred in 1835 (46%) patients; 347 (19%) of the patients with AKI required dialysis. The proportions with stages 1, 2, or 3 AKI were 39%, 19%, and 42%, respectively. A total of 976 (24%) patients were admitted to intensive care, and 745 (76%) experienced AKI. Of the 435 patients with AKI and urine studies, 84% had proteinuria, 81% had hematuria, and 60% had leukocyturia. Independent predictors of severe AKI were CKD, men, and higher serum potassium at admission. In-hospital mortality was 50% among patients with AKI versus 8% among those without AKI (aOR, 9.2; 95% confidence interval, 7.5 to 11.3). Of survivors with AKI who were discharged, 35% had not recovered to baseline kidney function by the time of discharge. An additional 28 of 77 (36%) patients who had not recovered kidney function at discharge did so on posthospital follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: AKI is common among patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and is associated with high mortality. Of all patients with AKI, only 30% survived with recovery of kidney function by the time of discharge.

Meta-analysis uncovers genome-wide significant variants for rapid kidney function decline.

Rapid decline of glomerular filtration rate estimated from creatinine (eGFRcrea) is associated with severe clinical endpoints. In contrast to cross-sectionally assessed eGFRcrea, the genetic basis for rapid eGFRcrea decline is largely unknown. To help define this, we meta-analyzed 42 genome-wide association studies from the Chronic Kidney Diseases Genetics Consortium and United Kingdom Biobank to identify genetic loci for rapid eGFRcrea decline. Two definitions of eGFRcrea decline were used: 3 mL/min/1.73m2/year or more ("Rapid3"; encompassing 34,874 cases, 107,090 controls) and eGFRcrea decline 25% or more and eGFRcrea under 60 mL/min/1.73m2 at follow-up among those with eGFRcrea 60 mL/min/1.73m2 or more at baseline ("CKDi25"; encompassing 19,901 cases, 175,244 controls). Seven independent variants were identified across six loci for Rapid3 and/or CKDi25: consisting of five variants at four loci with genome-wide significance (near UMOD-PDILT (2), PRKAG2, WDR72, OR2S2) and two variants among 265 known eGFRcrea variants (near GATM, LARP4B). All these loci were novel for Rapid3 and/or CKDi25 and our bioinformatic follow-up prioritized variants and genes underneath these loci. The OR2S2 locus is novel for any eGFRcrea trait including interesting candidates. For the five genome-wide significant lead variants, we found supporting effects for annual change in blood urea nitrogen or cystatin-based eGFR, but not for GATM or LARP4B. Individuals at high compared to those at low genetic risk (8-14 vs. 0-5 adverse alleles) had a 1.20-fold increased risk of acute kidney injury (95% confidence interval 1.08-1.33). Thus, our identified loci for rapid kidney function decline may help prioritize therapeutic targets and identify mechanisms and individuals at risk for sustained deterioration of kidney function.

Genome-wide Study of Atrial Fibrillation Identifies Seven Risk Loci and Highlights Biological Pathways and Regulatory Elements Involved in Cardiac Development.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cardiac arrhythmia and a major risk factor for stroke, heart failure, and premature death. The pathogenesis of AF remains poorly understood, which contributes to the current lack of highly effective treatments. To understand the genetic variation and biology underlying AF, we undertook a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 6,337 AF individuals and 61,607 AF-free individuals from Norway, including replication in an additional 30,679 AF individuals and 278,895 AF-free individuals. Through genotyping and dense imputation mapping from whole-genome sequencing, we tested almost nine million genetic variants across the genome and identified seven risk loci, including two novel loci. One novel locus (lead single-nucleotide variant [SNV] rs12614435; p = 6.76 × 10-18) comprised intronic and several highly correlated missense variants situated in the I-, A-, and M-bands of titin, which is the largest protein in humans and responsible for the passive elasticity of heart and skeletal muscle. The other novel locus (lead SNV rs56202902; p = 1.54 × 10-11) covered a large, gene-dense chromosome 1 region that has previously been linked to cardiac conduction. Pathway and functional enrichment analyses suggested that many AF-associated genetic variants act through a mechanism of impaired muscle cell differentiation and tissue formation during fetal heart development.

Rapid response to the alpha-1 adrenergic agent phenylephrine in the perioperative period is impacted by genomics and ancestry.

The emergence of genomic data in biobanks and health systems offers new ways to derive medically important phenotypes, including acute phenotypes occurring during inpatient clinical care. Here we study the genetic underpinnings of the rapid response to phenylephrine, an α1-adrenergic receptor agonist commonly used to treat hypotension during anesthesia and surgery. We quantified this response by extracting blood pressure (BP) measurements 5 min before and after the administration of phenylephrine. Based on this derived phenotype, we show that systematic differences exist between self-reported ancestry groups: European-Americans (EA; n = 1387) have a significantly higher systolic response to phenylephrine than African-Americans (AA; n = 1217) and Hispanic/Latinos (HA; n = 1713) (31.3% increase, p value < 6e-08 and 22.9% increase, p value < 5e-05 respectively), after adjusting for genetic ancestry, demographics, and relevant clinical covariates. We performed a genome-wide association study to investigate genetic factors underlying individual differences in this derived phenotype. We discovered genome-wide significant association signals in loci and genes previously associated with BP measured in ambulatory settings, and a general enrichment of association in these genes. Finally, we discovered two low frequency variants, present at ~1% in EAs and AAs, respectively, where patients carrying one copy of these variants show no phenylephrine response. This work demonstrates our ability to derive a quantitative phenotype suited for comparative statistics and genome-wide association studies from dense clinical and physiological measures captured for managing patients during surgery. We identify genetic variants underlying non response to phenylephrine, with implications for preemptive pharmacogenomic screening to improve safety during surgery.

Factors Associated With Longitudinal Psychological and Physiological Stress in Health Care Workers During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Observational Study Using Apple Watch Data.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a high degree of psychological distress among health care workers (HCWs). There is a need to characterize which HCWs are at an increased risk of developing psychological effects from the pandemic. Given the differences in the response of individuals to stress, an analysis of both the perceived and physiological consequences of stressors can provide a comprehensive evaluation of its impact. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine characteristics associated with longitudinal perceived stress in HCWs and to assess whether changes in heart rate variability (HRV), a marker of autonomic nervous system function, are associated with features protective against longitudinal stress. METHODS: HCWs across 7 hospitals in New York City, NY, were prospectively followed in an ongoing observational digital study using the custom Warrior Watch Study app. Participants wore an Apple Watch for the duration of the study to measure HRV throughout the follow-up period. Surveys measuring perceived stress, resilience, emotional support, quality of life, and optimism were collected at baseline and longitudinally. RESULTS: A total of 361 participants (mean age 36.8, SD 10.1 years; female: n=246, 69.3%) were enrolled. Multivariate analysis found New York City's COVID-19 case count to be associated with increased longitudinal stress (P=.008). Baseline emotional support, quality of life, and resilience were associated with decreased longitudinal stress (P<.001). A significant reduction in stress during the 4-week period after COVID-19 diagnosis was observed in the highest tertial of emotional support (P=.03) and resilience (P=.006). Participants in the highest tertial of baseline emotional support and resilience had a significantly different circadian pattern of longitudinally collected HRV compared to subjects in the low or medium tertial. CONCLUSIONS: High resilience, emotional support, and quality of life place HCWs at reduced risk of longitudinal perceived stress and have a distinct physiological stress profile. Our findings support the use of these characteristics to identify HCWs at risk of the psychological and physiological stress effects of the pandemic.

Use of Physiological Data From a Wearable Device to Identify SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Symptoms and Predict COVID-19 Diagnosis: Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Changes in autonomic nervous system function, characterized by heart rate variability (HRV), have been associated with infection and observed prior to its clinical identification. OBJECTIVE: We performed an evaluation of HRV collected by a wearable device to identify and predict COVID-19 and its related symptoms. METHODS: Health care workers in the Mount Sinai Health System were prospectively followed in an ongoing observational study using the custom Warrior Watch Study app, which was downloaded to their smartphones. Participants wore an Apple Watch for the duration of the study, measuring HRV throughout the follow-up period. Surveys assessing infection and symptom-related questions were obtained daily. RESULTS: Using a mixed-effect cosinor model, the mean amplitude of the circadian pattern of the standard deviation of the interbeat interval of normal sinus beats (SDNN), an HRV metric, differed between subjects with and without COVID-19 (P=.006). The mean amplitude of this circadian pattern differed between individuals during the 7 days before and the 7 days after a COVID-19 diagnosis compared to this metric during uninfected time periods (P=.01). Significant changes in the mean and amplitude of the circadian pattern of the SDNN was observed between the first day of reporting a COVID-19-related symptom compared to all other symptom-free days (P=.01). CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinally collected HRV metrics from a commonly worn commercial wearable device (Apple Watch) can predict the diagnosis of COVID-19 and identify COVID-19-related symptoms. Prior to the diagnosis of COVID-19 by nasal swab polymerase chain reaction testing, significant changes in HRV were observed, demonstrating the predictive ability of this metric to identify COVID-19 infection.

Characterization of Patients Who Return to Hospital Following Discharge from Hospitalization for COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Data on patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) who return to hospital after discharge are scarce. Characterization of these patients may inform post-hospitalization care. OBJECTIVE: To describe clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 who returned to the emergency department (ED) or required readmission within 14 days of discharge. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of SARS-COV-2-positive patients with index hospitalization between February 27 and April 12, 2020, with ≥ 14-day follow-up. Significance was defined as P < 0.05 after multiplying P by 125 study-wide comparisons. PARTICIPANTS: Hospitalized patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 discharged alive from five New York City hospitals. MAIN MEASURES: Readmission or return to ED following discharge. RESULTS: Of 2864 discharged patients, 103 (3.6%) returned for emergency care after a median of 4.5 days, with 56 requiring inpatient readmission. The most common reason for return was respiratory distress (50%). Compared with patients who did not return, there were higher proportions of COPD (6.8% vs 2.9%) and hypertension (36% vs 22.1%) among those who returned. Patients who returned also had a shorter median length of stay (LOS) during index hospitalization (4.5 [2.9,9.1] vs 6.7 [3.5, 11.5] days; Padjusted = 0.006), and were less likely to have required intensive care on index hospitalization (5.8% vs 19%; Padjusted = 0.001). A trend towards association between absence of in-hospital treatment-dose anticoagulation on index admission and return to hospital was also observed (20.9% vs 30.9%, Padjusted = 0.06). On readmission, rates of intensive care and death were 5.8% and 3.6%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Return to hospital after admission for COVID-19 was infrequent within 14 days of discharge. The most common cause for return was respiratory distress. Patients who returned more likely had COPD and hypertension, shorter LOS on index-hospitalization, and lower rates of in-hospital treatment-dose anticoagulation. Future studies should focus on whether these comorbid conditions, longer LOS, and anticoagulation are associated with reduced readmissions.

Association of Genetic Risk of Obesity with Postoperative Complications Using Mendelian Randomization.

BACKGROUND: The extent to which obesity and genetics determine postoperative complications is incompletely understood. METHODS: We performed a retrospective study using two population cohorts with electronic health record (EHR) data. The first included 736,726 adults with body mass index (BMI) recorded between 1990 and 2017 at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. The second cohort consisted of 65,174 individuals from 12 institutions contributing EHR and genome-wide genotyping data to the Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) Network. Pairwise logistic regression analyses were used to measure the association of BMI categories with postoperative complications derived from International Classification of Disease-9 codes, including postoperative infection, incisional hernia, and intestinal obstruction. A genetic risk score was constructed from 97 obesity-risk single-nucleotide polymorphisms for a Mendelian randomization study to determine the association of genetic risk of obesity on postoperative complications. Logistic regression analyses were adjusted for sex, age, site, and race/principal components. RESULTS: Individuals with overweight or obese BMI (≥25 kg/m2) had increased risk of incisional hernia (odds ratio [OR] 1.7-5.5, p < 3.1 × 10-20), and people with obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) had increased risk of postoperative infection (OR 1.2-2.3, p < 2.5 × 10-5). In the eMERGE cohort, genetically predicted BMI was associated with incisional hernia (OR 2.1 [95% CI 1.8-2.5], p = 1.4 × 10-6) and postoperative infection (OR 1.6 [95% CI 1.4-1.9], p = 3.1 × 10-6). Association findings were similar after limitation of the cohorts to those who underwent abdominal procedures. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical and Mendelian randomization studies suggest that obesity, as measured by BMI, is associated with the development of postoperative incisional hernia and infection.

Discovery and fine-mapping of adiposity loci using high density imputation of genome-wide association studies in individuals of African ancestry: African Ancestry Anthropometry Genetics Consortium.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified >300 loci associated with measures of adiposity including body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (adjusted for BMI, WHRadjBMI), but few have been identified through screening of the African ancestry genomes. We performed large scale meta-analyses and replications in up to 52,895 individuals for BMI and up to 23,095 individuals for WHRadjBMI from the African Ancestry Anthropometry Genetics Consortium (AAAGC) using 1000 Genomes phase 1 imputed GWAS to improve coverage of both common and low frequency variants in the low linkage disequilibrium African ancestry genomes. In the sex-combined analyses, we identified one novel locus (TCF7L2/HABP2) for WHRadjBMI and eight previously established loci at P < 5×10-8: seven for BMI, and one for WHRadjBMI in African ancestry individuals. An additional novel locus (SPRYD7/DLEU2) was identified for WHRadjBMI when combined with European GWAS. In the sex-stratified analyses, we identified three novel loci for BMI (INTS10/LPL and MLC1 in men, IRX4/IRX2 in women) and four for WHRadjBMI (SSX2IP, CASC8, PDE3B and ZDHHC1/HSD11B2 in women) in individuals of African ancestry or both African and European ancestry. For four of the novel variants, the minor allele frequency was low (<5%). In the trans-ethnic fine mapping of 47 BMI loci and 27 WHRadjBMI loci that were locus-wide significant (P < 0.05 adjusted for effective number of variants per locus) from the African ancestry sex-combined and sex-stratified analyses, 26 BMI loci and 17 WHRadjBMI loci contained ≤ 20 variants in the credible sets that jointly account for 99% posterior probability of driving the associations. The lead variants in 13 of these loci had a high probability of being causal. As compared to our previous HapMap imputed GWAS for BMI and WHRadjBMI including up to 71,412 and 27,350 African ancestry individuals, respectively, our results suggest that 1000 Genomes imputation showed modest improvement in identifying GWAS loci including low frequency variants. Trans-ethnic meta-analyses further improved fine mapping of putative causal variants in loci shared between the African and European ancestry populations.

Machine Learning to Predict Mortality and Critical Events in a Cohort of Patients With COVID-19 in New York City: Model Development and Validation.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has infected millions of people worldwide and is responsible for several hundred thousand fatalities. The COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated thoughtful resource allocation and early identification of high-risk patients. However, effective methods to meet these needs are lacking. OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study were to analyze the electronic health records (EHRs) of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 and were admitted to hospitals in the Mount Sinai Health System in New York City; to develop machine learning models for making predictions about the hospital course of the patients over clinically meaningful time horizons based on patient characteristics at admission; and to assess the performance of these models at multiple hospitals and time points. METHODS: We used Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and baseline comparator models to predict in-hospital mortality and critical events at time windows of 3, 5, 7, and 10 days from admission. Our study population included harmonized EHR data from five hospitals in New York City for 4098 COVID-19-positive patients admitted from March 15 to May 22, 2020. The models were first trained on patients from a single hospital (n=1514) before or on May 1, externally validated on patients from four other hospitals (n=2201) before or on May 1, and prospectively validated on all patients after May 1 (n=383). Finally, we established model interpretability to identify and rank variables that drive model predictions. RESULTS: Upon cross-validation, the XGBoost classifier outperformed baseline models, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) for mortality of 0.89 at 3 days, 0.85 at 5 and 7 days, and 0.84 at 10 days. XGBoost also performed well for critical event prediction, with an AUC-ROC of 0.80 at 3 days, 0.79 at 5 days, 0.80 at 7 days, and 0.81 at 10 days. In external validation, XGBoost achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.88 at 3 days, 0.86 at 5 days, 0.86 at 7 days, and 0.84 at 10 days for mortality prediction. Similarly, the unimputed XGBoost model achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.78 at 3 days, 0.79 at 5 days, 0.80 at 7 days, and 0.81 at 10 days. Trends in performance on prospective validation sets were similar. At 7 days, acute kidney injury on admission, elevated LDH, tachypnea, and hyperglycemia were the strongest drivers of critical event prediction, while higher age, anion gap, and C-reactive protein were the strongest drivers of mortality prediction. CONCLUSIONS: We externally and prospectively trained and validated machine learning models for mortality and critical events for patients with COVID-19 at different time horizons. These models identified at-risk patients and uncovered underlying relationships that predicted outcomes.

Trans-ethnic Meta-analysis and Functional Annotation Illuminates the Genetic Architecture of Fasting Glucose and Insulin.

Knowledge of the genetic basis of the type 2 diabetes (T2D)-related quantitative traits fasting glucose (FG) and insulin (FI) in African ancestry (AA) individuals has been limited. In non-diabetic subjects of AA (n = 20,209) and European ancestry (EA; n = 57,292), we performed trans-ethnic (AA+EA) fine-mapping of 54 established EA FG or FI loci with detailed functional annotation, assessed their relevance in AA individuals, and sought previously undescribed loci through trans-ethnic (AA+EA) meta-analysis. We narrowed credible sets of variants driving association signals for 22/54 EA-associated loci; 18/22 credible sets overlapped with active islet-specific enhancers or transcription factor (TF) binding sites, and 21/22 contained at least one TF motif. Of the 54 EA-associated loci, 23 were shared between EA and AA. Replication with an additional 10,096 AA individuals identified two previously undescribed FI loci, chrX FAM133A (rs213676) and chr5 PELO (rs6450057). Trans-ethnic analyses with regulatory annotation illuminate the genetic architecture of glycemic traits and suggest gene regulation as a target to advance precision medicine for T2D. Our approach to utilize state-of-the-art functional annotation and implement trans-ethnic association analysis for discovery and fine-mapping offers a framework for further follow-up and characterization of GWAS signals of complex trait loci.

Exome Genotyping Identifies Pleiotropic Variants Associated with Red Blood Cell Traits.

Red blood cell (RBC) traits are important heritable clinical biomarkers and modifiers of disease severity. To identify coding genetic variants associated with these traits, we conducted meta-analyses of seven RBC phenotypes in 130,273 multi-ethnic individuals from studies genotyped on an exome array. After conditional analyses and replication in 27,480 independent individuals, we identified 16 new RBC variants. We found low-frequency missense variants in MAP1A (rs55707100, minor allele frequency [MAF] = 3.3%, p = 2 × 10(-10) for hemoglobin [HGB]) and HNF4A (rs1800961, MAF = 2.4%, p < 3 × 10(-8) for hematocrit [HCT] and HGB). In African Americans, we identified a nonsense variant in CD36 associated with higher RBC distribution width (rs3211938, MAF = 8.7%, p = 7 × 10(-11)) and showed that it is associated with lower CD36 expression and strong allelic imbalance in ex vivo differentiated human erythroblasts. We also identified a rare missense variant in ALAS2 (rs201062903, MAF = 0.2%) associated with lower mean corpuscular volume and mean corpuscular hemoglobin (p < 8 × 10(-9)). Mendelian mutations in ALAS2 are a cause of sideroblastic anemia and erythropoietic protoporphyria. Gene-based testing highlighted three rare missense variants in PKLR, a gene mutated in Mendelian non-spherocytic hemolytic anemia, associated with HGB and HCT (SKAT p < 8 × 10(-7)). These rare, low-frequency, and common RBC variants showed pleiotropy, being also associated with platelet, white blood cell, and lipid traits. Our association results and functional annotation suggest the involvement of new genes in human erythropoiesis. We also confirm that rare and low-frequency variants play a role in the architecture of complex human traits, although their phenotypic effect is generally smaller than originally anticipated.

Meta-Analysis of Genome-Wide Association Studies for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Identifies Four New Disease-Specific Risk Loci.

RATIONALE: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a complex disease with both genetic and environmental risk factors. Together, 6 previously identified risk loci only explain a small proportion of the heritability of AAA. OBJECTIVE: To identify additional AAA risk loci using data from all available genome-wide association studies. METHODS AND RESULTS: Through a meta-analysis of 6 genome-wide association study data sets and a validation study totaling 10 204 cases and 107 766 controls, we identified 4 new AAA risk loci: 1q32.3 (SMYD2), 13q12.11 (LINC00540), 20q13.12 (near PCIF1/MMP9/ZNF335), and 21q22.2 (ERG). In various database searches, we observed no new associations between the lead AAA single nucleotide polymorphisms and coronary artery disease, blood pressure, lipids, or diabetes mellitus. Network analyses identified ERG, IL6R, and LDLR as modifiers of MMP9, with a direct interaction between ERG and MMP9. CONCLUSIONS: The 4 new risk loci for AAA seem to be specific for AAA compared with other cardiovascular diseases and related traits suggesting that traditional cardiovascular risk factor management may only have limited value in preventing the progression of aneurysmal disease.