Severe and Fatal Cycling Crash Injury in Britain: Time to Make Urban Cycling Safer.

Pedal cycling is advocated for increasing physical activity and promoting health and wellbeing. However, whilst some countries have achieved zero cyclist deaths on their roads, this is not the case for Great Britain (GB). A retrospective cross-sectional analysis was conducted of STATS19 cyclist crash data, a dataset of all police-reported traffic crashes in GB. Information about crash location, casualty, driver and vehicles involved were included as predictors of casualty severity (fatal or severe vs. slight). Sixteen thousand one hundred seventy pedal cycle crashes were reported during 2018. Severe or fatal cyclist crash injury was associated with increasing age of the cyclist (35-39 years, OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.73; 55-59 years, OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.35 to 2.2; 70 years and over, OR 2.87, 95% CI 2.12 to 3.87), higher road speed limits (50 MPH OR 2.10, 95% CI 1.43 to 3.07; 70 MPH OR 4.12, 95% CI 2.12 to 8.03), the involvement of goods vehicles (OR 2.08, 95% CI 1.30 to 3.33) and the months of May and June (OR 1.34 to 1.36, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.73). Urban planning that includes physical separation of pedal cyclists from other road users, raising awareness around the risks from goods vehicles and reducing road speed should be the urgent focus of interventions to increase the benefits and safety of cycling.

Author Correction: Data visualisation to support obesity policy: case studies of data tools for planning and transport policy in the UK.

In the original version of this Article the following funding details were omitted from the Acknowledgements section.

Correction: Data visualisation to support obesity policy: case studies of data tools for planning and transport policy in the UK.

The financial support for this Article was not fully acknowledged. The Acknowledgements should have included the following: "This work was undertaken by the Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), a UK Clinical Research Collaboration (UKCRC) Public Health Research Centre of Excellence. Funding from the British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, the National Institute for Health Research [Grant Number ES/G007462/1], and the Wellcome Trust [Grant Number 087636/Z/08/Z], under the auspices of the UK Clinical Research Collaboration, is gratefully acknowledged."

Barriers to investing in cycling: Stakeholder views from England.

BACKGROUND: Planners and politicians in many countries seek to increase the proportion of trips made by cycling. However, this is often challenging. In England, a national target to double cycling by 2025 is likely to be missed: between 2001 and 2011 the proportion of commutes made by cycling barely grew. One important contributory factor is continued low investment in cycling infrastructure, by comparison to European leaders. METHODS: This paper examines barriers to cycling investment, considering that these need to be better understood to understand failures to increase cycling level. It is based on qualitative data from an online survey of over 400 stakeholders, alongside seven in-depth interviews. RESULTS: Many respondents reported that change continues to be blocked by chronic barriers including a lack of funding and leadership. Participants provided insights into how challenges develop along the life of a scheme. In authorities with little consideration given to cycling provision, media and public opposition were not reported as a major issue. However, where planning and implementation have begun, this can change quickly; although examples were given of schemes successfully proceeding, despite this. The research points to a growing gap between authorities that have overcome key challenges, and those that have not.

Development of the Impacts of Cycling Tool (ICT): A modelling study and web tool for evaluating health and environmental impacts of cycling uptake.

BACKGROUND: A modal shift to cycling has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and provide health co-benefits. Methods, models, and tools are needed to estimate the potential for cycling uptake and communicate to policy makers the range of impacts this would have. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The Impacts of Cycling Tool (ICT) is an open source model with a web interface for visualising travel patterns and comparing the impacts of different scenarios of cycling uptake. It is currently applied to England. The ICT allows users to visualise individual and trip-level data from the English National Travel Survey (NTS), 2004-2014 sample, 132,000 adults. It models scenarios in which there is an increase in the proportion of the population who cycle regularly, using a distance-based propensity approach to model which trips would be cycled. From this, the model estimates likely impact on travel patterns, health, and greenhouse gas emissions. Estimates of nonoccupational physical activity are generated by fusing the NTS with the English Active People Survey (APS, 2013-2014, 559,515 adults) to create a synthetic population. Under 'equity' scenarios, we investigate what would happen if cycling levels increased equally among all age and gender categories, as opposed to in proportion to the profile of current cyclists. Under electric assist bike (pedelecs or 'e-bike') scenarios, the probability of cycling longer trips increases, based on the e-bike data from the Netherlands, 2013-2014 Dutch Travel Survey (50,868 adults).Outcomes are presented across domains including transport (trip duration and trips by mode), health (physical activity levels, years of life lost), and car transport-related CO2 emissions. Results can be visualised for the whole population and various subpopulations (region, age, gender, and ethnicity). The tool is available at www.pct.bike/ict. If the proportion of the English population who cycle regularly increased from 4.8% to 25%, then there would be notable reductions in car miles and passenger related CO2 emissions (2.2%) and health benefits (2.1% reduction in years of life lost due to premature mortality). If the new cyclists had access to e-bikes, then mortality reductions would be similar, while the reduction in car miles and CO2 emissions would be larger (2.7%). If take-up of cycling occurred equally by gender and age (under 80 years), then health benefits would be marginally greater (2.2%) but reduction in CO2 slightly smaller (1.8%). The study is limited by the quality and comparability of the input data (including reliance on self-report behaviours). As with all modelling studies, many assumptions are required and potentially important pathways excluded (e.g. injury, air pollution, and noise pollution). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates a generalisable approach for using travel survey data to model scenarios of cycling uptake that can be applied to a wide range of settings. The use of individual-level data allows investigation of a wide range of outcomes, and variation across subgroups. Future work should investigate the sensitivity of results to assumptions and omissions, and if this varies across setting.

Data visualisation to support obesity policy: case studies of data tools for planning and transport policy in the UK.

Data visualisation is becoming an established way to drive discovery and develop theory and hypotheses among researchers. Data visualisations can also serve as tools for knowledge translation with policy makers, who are increasingly using data and evidence to inform and implement policy. For obesity policy, data visualisation tools can help policy makers and other professionals understand the socio-spatial distribution of risk factors and quantify social and environmental conditions that are recognised upstream determinants of diet, activity and obesity. The demand for and use of data visualisation tools can be driven by an identified policy need, which can be met by researchers and data scientists. Alternatively, researchers are developing and testing data visualisations, which may be subsequently adapted for, and adopted by policy users.Two recently-released interactive data visualisation tools in the UK illustrate these points. The Propensity to Cycle Tool (PCT) was developed with funding from the UK government to inform the investment of cycling infrastructure in England. The Food environment assessment tool (Feat) evolved as a translational output from a programme of epidemiological research. This article uses PCT and Feat as case studies, drawing parallels and contrasts between them. We discuss these two tools from policy context and scientific underpinnings, to product launch and evaluation. We review challenges inherent in the development and dissemination of data tools for policy, including the need for technical expertise, feedback integration, long-term sustainability, and provision of training and user support. Finally, we attempt to derive learning points that may help overcome challenges associated with the creation, dissemination and sustaining of data tools for policy. We contend that, despite a number of challenges, data tools provide a novel gateway between researchers and a range of stakeholders, who are seeking ways of accessing and using evidence to inform obesity programs and policies.

Contraflows and cycling safety: Evidence from 22 years of data involving 508 one-way streets.

Contraflow cycling on one-way streets is a low cost intervention that research shows can improve the cycling experience and increase participation. Evidence from several studies suggest that cyclists on contraflows have a lower crash risk. However, implementing contraflow cycling is often controversial, including in the United Kingdom (UK). In this paper we examine whether contraflow cycling on one-way streets alters crash or casualty rates for pedal cyclists. Focusing on inner London boroughs between 1998 and 2019, we identified 508 road segments where contraflow cycling was introduced on one-way streets. We identified road traffic crashes occurring within 10 m of these segments and labelled them as pre-contraflow, contraflow or contraflow removed crashes. We calculated rates using the number of crashes or casualties divided by the time exposed and generated 95 % confidence intervals using bootstrap resampling. We adjusted the rates for changes in cordon cycling volume and injury severity reporting. There were 1498 crashes involving pedal cyclists: 788 pre-contraflow, 703 contraflow and 7 following contraflow removal. There was no change in adjusted overall pedal cyclist crash or casualty rates when contraflow cycling was introduced. Proximity to a junction doubled the crash rate. The crash rate when pedal cyclists were travelling contraflow was the same as those travelling with flow. We have found no evidence that introducing contraflow cycling increases the crash or casualty rate for pedal cyclists. It is possible that such rates may indeed fall when contraflow cycling is introduced if more accurate spatio-temporal cycling volume data was available. We recommend all one-way streets are evaluated for contraflow cycling but encourage judicious junction design and recommend UK legislative change for mandatory-two-way cycling on one-way streets unless exceptional circumstances exist.

Health, environmental and distributional impacts of cycling uptake: The model underlying the Propensity to Cycle tool for England and Wales.

INTRODUCTION: The Propensity to Cycle Tool (PCT) is a widely used free, open source and publicly available tool for modelling cycling uptake and corresponding health and carbon impacts in England and Wales. In this paper we present the methods for our new individual-level modelling representing all commuters in England and Wales. METHODS: Scenario commuter cycling potential in the PCT is modelled as a function of route distance and hilliness between home and work. Our new individual-level approach has allowed us to create an additional "Near Market" scenario where age, gender, ethnicity, car ownership and area level deprivation also affect an individual's likelihood of switching to cycling. For this and other scenarios, we calculate the carbon benefits of cycling uptake based on the trip distance and previous mode, while health benefits are additionally affected by hilliness and baseline average mortality risk. This allows the estimation of how health and carbon benefits differ by demographic group as well as by scenario. RESULTS: While cycle commuting in England and Wales is demographically skewed towards men and white people, women and people from ethnic minorities have greater cycling potential based on route distance and hilliness. Benefits from cycling uptake are distributed differently again. For example, while increasing female cycling mode share is good for equity, each additional female cyclist generates a smaller average health and carbon benefit than a male cyclist. This is based on women's lower baseline mortality risk, shorter commute travel distances, and lower propensity to commute by car than men. CONCLUSION: We have demonstrated a new approach to modelling that allows for more sophisticated and nuanced assessment of cycling uptake and subsequent benefits, under different scenarios. Health and carbon are increasingly incorporated into appraisal of active travel schemes, valuing important outcomes. However, especially with better representation of demographic factors, this can act as a barrier to equity goals.

Road lighting density and brightness linked with increased cycling rates after-dark.

Cycling has a range of benefits as is recognised by national and international policies aiming to increase cycling rates. Darkness acts as a barrier to people cycling, with fewer people cycling after-dark when seasonal and time-of-day factors are accounted for. This paper explores whether road lighting can reduce the negative impact of darkness on cycling rates. Changes in cycling rates between daylight and after-dark were quantified for 48 locations in Birmingham, United Kingdom, by calculating an odds ratio. These odds ratios were compared against two measures of road lighting at each location: 1) Density of road lighting lanterns; 2) Relative brightness as estimated from night-time aerial images. Locations with no road lighting showed a significantly greater reduction in cycling after-dark compared with locations that had some lighting. A nonlinear relationship was found between relative brightness at a location at night and the reduction in cyclists after-dark. Small initial increases in brightness resulted in large reductions in the difference between cyclist numbers in daylight and after-dark, but this effect reached a plateau as brightness increased. These results suggest only a minimal amount of lighting can promote cycling after-dark, making it an attractive mode of transport year-round.

Association of prevalence of active transport to work and incidence of myocardial infarction: A nationwide ecological study.

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of population-based geospatial data about the association between active transport and myocardial infarction. We investigated the association between active transport to work and incidence of myocardial infarction. DESIGN: This ecological study of 325 local authorities in England included 43,077,039 employed individuals aged 25-74 years (UK Census, 2011), and 117,521 individuals with myocardial infarction (Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project, 2011-2013). METHODS: Bayesian negative binomial regression models were used to investigate the association of active transport to work and incidence of myocardial infarction adjusting for local levels of deprivation, obesity, smoking, diabetes and physical activity. RESULTS: In 2011, the prevalence of active transportation to work for people in employment in England aged 25-74 years was 11.4% (4,531,182 active transporters; 8.6% walking and 2.8% cycling). Active transport in 2011 was associated with a reduced incidence of myocardial infarction in 2012 amongst men cycling to work (incidence rate ratio (95% credible interval) 0.983 (0.967-0.999); and women walking to work (0.983 (0.967-0.999)) after full adjustments. However, the prevalence of active transport for men and women was not significantly associated with the combined incidence of myocardial infarction between 2011-2013 after adjusting for physical activity, smoking and diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: In England, the prevalence of active transportation was associated with a reduced incidence of myocardial infarction for women walking and men cycling to work in corresponding local geographic areas. The overall association of active transport with myocardial infarction was, however, explained by local area levels of smoking, diabetes and physical activity.