Modelling testing and response strategies for COVID-19 outbreaks in remote Australian Aboriginal communities.

BACKGROUND: Remote Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities have potential to be severely impacted by COVID-19, with multiple factors predisposing to increased transmission and disease severity. Our modelling aims to inform optimal public health responses. METHODS: An individual-based simulation model represented SARS-CoV2 transmission in communities ranging from 100 to 3500 people, comprised of large, interconnected households. A range of strategies for case finding, quarantining of contacts, testing, and lockdown were examined, following the silent introduction of a case. RESULTS: Multiple secondary infections are likely present by the time the first case is identified. Quarantine of close contacts, defined by extended household membership, can reduce peak infection prevalence from 60 to 70% to around 10%, but subsequent waves may occur when community mixing resumes. Exit testing significantly reduces ongoing transmission. Concurrent lockdown of non-quarantined households for 14 days is highly effective for epidemic control and reduces overall testing requirements; peak prevalence of the initial outbreak can be constrained to less than 5%, and the final community attack rate to less than 10% in modelled scenarios. Lockdown also mitigates the effect of a delay in the initial response. Compliance with lockdown must be at least 80-90%, however, or epidemic control will be lost. CONCLUSIONS: A SARS-CoV-2 outbreak will spread rapidly in remote communities. Prompt case detection with quarantining of extended-household contacts and a 14 day lockdown for all other residents, combined with exit testing for all, is the most effective strategy for rapid containment. Compliance is crucial, underscoring the need for community supported, culturally sensitive responses.

Can we study the family environment through census data? A comparison of households, dwellings, and domestic units in rural Mali.

Are 'statistical households', as defined in national censuses, able to describe the family environment in Africa? Do they correspond to the family units that individuals identify with? To address this issue, we build on a follow-up survey in south-east Mali, which links national censuses with local censuses at the individual level (N ≈ 28,000 census observations). Three cross-sectional snapshots of family arrangements are compared: households recorded in national censuses, and family economic units and residential units recorded by local censuses. The national census household data appear poorly suited to documenting family living arrangements. They do not account for family economic units or residential units, but are highly conditioned by a normative representation centred on the nuclear family. Therefore, they fail to describe the complexity and diversity of people's living spaces, making particular types of living arrangements invisible and increasing the likelihood of omitting individuals who do not fit into a nuclear model.

The impacts of rapid demographic transition on family structure and income inequality in Brazil, 1981-2011.

This study analysed the impact of changing family structure on income distribution. Specifically, it analysed how changes in the proportions of different categories of family in the population contributed to increases in the income of the richest and poorest social strata in Brazil, and the consequent impacts on income inequality. Rural and urban families were compared in order to understand how these dynamics had different impacts on more developed (urban) and less developed (rural) areas. The results emphasize how changes observed in family structure are more pronounced among the richest families, contributing to an increase in (i) the income of the richest families and (ii) income inequality between the richest and poorest families, as well as between urban and rural areas.

Cost of Cholera for Households and Health Facilities, Somalia.

INTRODUCTION: Cholera remains a substantial public health challenge in Somalia. Ongoing droughts in the country have caused significant outbreaks which have negatively affected the lives of many individuals and overwhelmed health facilities. We aimed to estimate the costs associated with cholera cases for households and health facilities in Somalia. METHODS: This cost-of-illness study was conducted in five cholera treatment centres in Somalia and 400 patients treated in these facilities. Data collection took place during October and November 2023. Given that a significant portion of the patients were children, we interviewed their caregivers to gather cost data. We interviewed staff at the centres and the patients. The data obtained from the household questionnaire covered direct (medical and non-medical) and indirect (lost wages) costs, while direct costs were estimated for the health facility (personnel salaries, drugs and consumables used to treat a patient, and utility expenses). All costs were calculated in US dollars (USD), using 2023 as the base year for the estimation. RESULTS: The average total cost of a cholera episode for a household was US$ 33.94 (2023 USD), with 50.4% (US$ 17.12) being direct costs and 49.6% (US$ 16.82) indirect costs. The average total cost for a health facility to treat an episode of cholera was US$ 82.65. The overall average cost to households and health facilities was US$ 116.59. The average length of stay for a patient was 3.08 days. In the households, patients aged 41 years and older incurred the highest mean total cost (US$ 73.90) while patients younger than 5 years had the lowest cost (US$ 21.02). Additionally, 61.8% of households had to use family savings to cover the cost of the cholera episode, while 14.5% had to borrow money. Most patients (71.8%) were younger than 16 years- 45.3% were 5 years or younger- and 94.0% had never received a cholera vaccine. CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that preventing one cholera episode in Somalia could avert substantial losses for both the households and cholera treatment centres. The findings shed light on the expenses associated with cholera that extend beyond healthcare, including substantial direct and indirect costs borne by households. Preventing cholera cases could lead to a decrease in this economic burden, consequently our study supports the need for preventive measures.

Exploring family home food environments: Household resources needed to utilise weekly deliveries of free fruits and vegetables.

AIM: An adapted ethnographic approach was used to explore household factors that influence family fruit and vegetable consumption when access and cost barriers are removed. 'Structural' barriers, such as food affordability and accessibility, are likely to influence fruit and vegetable consumption in disadvantaged households, but households may require additional resources (human and social) to increase consumption. METHODS: Five low-income and five high-income households with children (N = 39 individuals) were observed in their home environment for three months. Including both advantaged and disadvantaged families allowed exploration of socioeconomic factors influencing these households. Each household received a free box of fresh fruit and vegetables each week for 10-12 weeks, delivered to their home, and were home-visited twice a week by a researcher (40+ hours per household). An inductive analysis of rich observational and discussion data revealed themes describing factors influencing household fruit and vegetable consumption. RESULTS: Household food cultures were dynamic and influenced by available resources. Even when free produce was delivered to homes, these households required human resource (personal drivers influenced by early life exposure and household dynamics) and external social networks to make use of them. When household finances and/or labour were limited, there was greater dependence on external organisations for tangible support. CONCLUSIONS: Even when structural barriers were removed, disadvantaged families needed a range of resources across the life course to improve eating behaviours, including sufficient, motivated and skilled labour and harmonious family relationships. Strategies targeting these households must consider structural, social, cultural and intra-familial influences on food choice.

A case-control study of oral contraceptive use and breast cancer.

Among 989 cases of breast cancer and 9,890 controls selected from a cohort of married, female registered nurses aged 30-55 years, the relative risk (RR) of breast cancer for women who had ever used oral contraceptives (OC) compared with those who had never used them was 1.0, with 95% confidence limits 0.9-1.2. Among OC users, there was no consistent pattern of excess risk with increasing duration; in fact, the few women who had used OC longest (greater than 10 yr) had a slightly lower risk than never-users. Moreover, there was no association between OC use and breast cancer among women with a positive history of breast cancer in the mother or sister or with OC use before their first pregnancy. The only subgroup of women among whom any adverse effect was apparent was current OC users aged 50-55 years (two onsets expected vs. seven observed). This finding is consistent with earlier reports of an increased risk of breast cancer among older OC users; however, it is also likely to reflect, at least to some extent, the play of chance, since at ages 45-49 and in each younger age group fewer cases than expected were observed among current OC users.

Prospective study of oral contraceptive use and risk of breast cancer in women.

In 1976, 118,273 female nurses 30-55 years of age with no history of cancer completed a questionnaire regarding possible risk factors. By 1986, after 1,137,415 person-years of follow-up, we had documented 1,799 newly diagnosed cases of breast cancer. Compared with the risk of breast cancer for nonusers of oral contraceptives, the multivariate relative risks were 1.07 (95% confidence interval, 0.97-1.19) for all users, 1.06 (95% confidence interval, 0.96-1.18) for past users, and 1.53 (95% confidence interval, 1.06-2.19) for current users--women who used oral contraceptives up to 2 years before diagnosis of breast cancer. We conclude that overall past use of oral contraceptives is not associated with a substantial increase in the risk of breast cancer. Although we did not find women who used oral contraceptives before the first pregnancy to have an increased risk of breast cancer, the number of women who used oral contraceptives for a long duration in early reproductive life was too small to permit firm conclusions regarding the risk in this subgroup.

Epidemiology of cervical cancer by cell type.

A multicenter case-control study of 481 invasive cervical cancer patients and 801 population controls enabled comparison of risk factors for squamous cell tumors (n = 418), adenosquamous cancers (n = 23), and adenocarcinomas (n = 40). The epidemiology of the squamous cell tumors resembled that found in other studies, with the major risk factors being absence of Pap smear screening (relative risk = 3.6 to 4.8 for those not screened within 5 yr), multiple sexual partners (relative risk = 2.9 for over ten partners), and history of genital infections or sores (relative risk = 2.3). Although based on small numbers, adenosquamous tumors appeared to share some of these risk factors, notably number of sexual partners, years since last Pap smear, and level of education. Adenocarcinomas were not similarly affected, although sexual practices were marginally predictive. Obesity increased the risk of adenocarcinoma, but no other similarities to endometrial adenocarcinoma were observed. Smoking was a significant predictor of squamous cell tumors but did not affect adenocarcinomas. Extended use of oral contraceptives was a risk factor for all tumor types, especially adenocarcinoma, and a familial tendency to cervical cancer was also observed for all cell types.

The African family and AIDS: a current look at the epidemic.

PIP: The magnitude and scope of the HIV/AIDS epidemic are increasing in Africa. In Central and East Africa, the first regions of Africa to identify AIDS as a major problem, HIV infection is not limited to individuals in formerly identified high-risk groups. Infection is instead spreading from such groups to and through the general population. HIV infection is also emerging as a threat in regions of Africa previously thought to be relatively unaffected. As such, the World Health Organization estimates that AIDS will add more than 40% to annual death rates for adults aged 15-49 years in sub-Saharan Africa by the mid-1990s, and will reverse declining trends in both child and adult mortality rates. AIDS in Africa affects entire families and communities. More than any other disease, heterosexually-transmitted AIDS is critically influenced by changing African family patterns and structures. The family in Africa has traditionally been the major structure responsible for caring for individual health and well-being given the dearth of effective government social welfare systems to provide support. The widespread AIDS-related morbidity and mortality, however, are threatening the integrity and viability of African families in many AIDS-affected areas. Moreover, the stigma associated with AIDS often isolates family units as they try to cope with an AIDS-affected family member. This article discusses the relationships between familial economic pressures, women's status, and HIV transmission; describes the direct and indirect effects of AIDS on children in African families; and calls for a community-based approach to combatting AIDS.^ieng

Accurate detection of maternal antibodies to HIV in newborn whole blood dried on filter paper.

OBJECTIVE: The testing of neonatal blood specimens dried on filter paper for maternal HIV antibodies, using an enzyme immunoassay (EIA) with confirmation of repeatedly reactive specimens by immunoblot (IB), was first described in 1987. It has been used to conduct large, unlinked, anonymous HIV seroprevalence surveys for surveillance of HIV in child-bearing women in several countries. We directly assessed the sensitivity and specificity of this combination of tests to detect maternal HIV antibodies. SETTING: Serum samples obtained from mothers delivering at a major hospital in Kinshasa, Zaire were screened for HIV antibody using the rapid assay HIVCHEK. DESIGN: Plasma from HIVCHEK-positive women and age-matched negative controls were tested by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA); repeatedly reactive specimens were confirmed by Western blot (WB). Two days after delivery, whole blood was obtained from each newborn by heel-stick, dried on filter paper, and tested by EIA. Repeatedly reactive specimens were confirmed by IB. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The serologic status of neonatal filter-paper specimens was compared with that of corresponding maternal plasma. RESULTS: The testing of neonatal filter-paper specimens using EIA, with confirmatory testing of repeatedly reactive specimens using IB, was 100.0% sensitive [of the 192 ELISA-positive and WB-positive maternal plasma specimens, 192 of the corresponding newborn filter-paper specimens were EIA-positive and IB-positive; 95% confidence interval (CI), 98.1-100]. The detection of maternal HIV antibodies was 99.6% specific using this combination of tests (of the 281 ELISA-negative or ELISA-positive but WB-negative maternal plasma samples, 280 of the corresponding newborn filter-paper specimens were EIA-negative or EIA-positive but IB-negative; 95% CI, 98.0-100). CONCLUSIONS: Maternal HIV antibodies can be detected accurately by testing neonatal blood dried on filter paper, using EIA with confirmation of repeatedly reactive specimens by IB. This approach can facilitate the determination of HIV seroprevalence in child-bearing women in countries with neonatal screening programs, or where serum or plasma is difficult to obtain.

PIP: Neonatal blood specimens dried on filter paper have been tested for maternal HIV antibodies in large, unlinked, anonymous HIV seroprevalence surveys toward the surveillance of HIV in child-bearing women in several countries. This study assesses the sensitivity and specificity of this combination of tests. The standard approach involves first testing the sample via an enzyme immunoassay (EIA), then confirming repeatedly reactive specimens through immunoblot (IB). To test this methodology, serum samples were obtained from mothers delivering at a major hospital in Kinshasa, Zaire, and screened with rapid assay HIVCHEK for antibody to HIV. Plasma from HIVCHEK-positive women and age-matched negative controls were then subjected to ELISA, with repeatedly reactive samples confirmed with Western blot. Whole blood was later obtained by heel-stick from each newborn 2 days after delivery, dried on filter paper, and tested by EIA and IB for confirmation. The serologic statuses of neonatal filter-paper specimens were then compared with those of corresponding maternal plasma. 100% sensitivity was achieved by testing neonatal filter-paper specimens with EIA and confirming with IB. The combination of tests also proved 99.6% specific for detecting maternal HIV antibodies; both results are at 95% confidence intervals. These results demonstrate that maternal HIV antibodies can therefore be detected accurately by testing neonatal blood dried on filter paper, using EIA, then confirming repeatedly reactive specimens via IB. This approach may help determine HIV seroprevalence in childbearing women in countries with neonatal screening programs or where serum or plasma is difficult to obtain.

Age of wife as a major determinant of male-to-female transmission of HIV-2 infection: a community study from rural West Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether proviral load is important for transmission between spouses, since we have previously found that the proviral load of HIV-2 predicts the severity of infection. DESIGN: Proviral load was examined in 121 HIV-2-infected adults in a rural area of Guinea-Bissau. For the 68 subjects who had a spouse of known HIV status the risk of the spouse being infected was examined. METHODS: Statistical methods for dependent data were used, because several couples were polygamous. RESULTS: Twenty-seven HIV-2-infected men had 52 current wives of whom 17 (33%) were HIV-2-seropositive. Forty-one HIV-2-infected women had 36 current husbands of known HIV serostatus; nine (25%) were HIV-2-positive. In univariate analyses, concordance of female partners of HIV-2-infected men increased with a previous history of prostitution, age of wife, lack of age difference between the spouses, number of previous husbands, number of wives of the man, and the proviral load. The only significant predictor of concordance in multivariate analyses when wives with a history of prostitution were excluded was an age of 45 years or older [odds ratio (OR), 8.68; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.34-32.22]. This tendency was not explained by the length of current marriage. Although husbands with a high proviral load were more likely to have concordant spouses than those with a low proviral load (< 20 copies/10(5) CD4 cells), this association was not statistically significant (OR, 2.59; 95% CI, 0.90-7.46). Among spouses of HIV-2-infected women, none of the examined factors, including previous prostitution or proviral load in the woman, predicted whether the husband was HIV-2-infected. CONCLUSIONS: Women appear to be more susceptible to HIV-2 infection after 40-45 years of age. The apparent change in susceptibility may be a major reason for the distinctive age pattern of HIV-2 infection observed in West Africa.

PIP: Community studies from Guinea-Bissau have found that 30-40% of HIV-2-infected individuals' spouses are also infected. However, wives aged under 25 years were significantly less likely to be HIV-2-seropositive. A study was conducted to examine whether proviral load is important for HIV transmission between spouses. Proviral load was examined in 121 HIV-2-infected adults in a rural area of Guinea-Bissau. For the 68 subjects with a spouse of known HIV status, the risk of the spouse being infected was studied. Statistical methods were used for dependent data since several couples were polygamous. 27 HIV-2-infected men had 52 current wives of whom 17% were HIV-2-seropositive. 41 HIV-2-infected women had 36 current husbands of known HIV serostatus; 9 were HIV-2-seropositive. Univariate analysis found the concordance of female partners of HIV-2-infected men to increase with a previous history of prostitution, age of wife, lack of age difference between the spouses, number of previous husbands, the number of wives of the man, and the proviral load. The only significant predictor of concordance in multivariate analysis when wives with a history of prostitution were excluded was being of age 45 years or older. That tendency was not explained by the length of current marriage. Among spouses of HIV-2-infected women, none of the examined factors predicted whether the husband was HIV-2 infected. It was concluded that women seem to be more susceptible to HIV-2 infection after age 40-45 years. That change in susceptibility may be a major reason for the distinctive age pattern of HIV-2 infection observed in West Africa.

Mother-to-child transmission of HIV: implications of variation in maternal infectivity.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the implications of variation in maternal infectivity on the timing of mother-to-child HIV transmission through breastfeeding. DESIGN AND METHODS: A mathematical model of mother-to-child HIV transmission was developed that incorporates two main features: (i) the fetus/child potentially experiences a series of exposures (in utero, intrapartum, and via breastmilk) to HIV; and (ii) variation in maternal infectivity. The model was estimated from different sources of epidemiological data: a retrospective cohort study of children born to HIV-1-infected women in Sao Paulo State, Brazil, the International Registry of HIV-Exposed Twins, and the AIDS Clinical Trials Group 076 trial, which assessed the effectiveness of zidovudine in preventing mother-to-child HIV transmission. RESULTS: Variation in maternal infectivity results in higher average risk of breastfeeding-related transmission in the early stages of breastfeeding than in the late stages, even in the absence of a direct relationship between transmission risk and the age of the child. However, the available data were unable to resolve the quantitative importance of this mechanism. CONCLUSIONS: Our model has helped identify a previously unrecognized determinant of the timing of breastfeeding-related HIV transmission, which may have adverse implications for the effectiveness of certain interventions to reduce mother-to-child HIV transmission such as maternal antiretroviral therapy in breastfeeding populations and the early cessation of breastfeeding.

PIP: By 2000, an estimated 5 million children will have been infected with HIV, the majority of them in sub-Saharan Africa. 30-50% of such infections could be the result of mother-to-child viral transmission through breast-feeding. Findings are presented from a study conducted to examine the implications of variation in maternal infectivity upon the timing of mother-to-child HIV transmission through breast-feeding. A mathematical model of mother-to-child HIV transmission was developed which incorporates the possibility of the fetus/child being exposed to HIV in utero, during the intrapartum period, and through breast milk; and variation in maternal infectivity. The model was estimated from epidemiological data drawn from a retrospective cohort study of children born to HIV-1-infected women in Sao Paulo State, Brazil, the International Registry of HIV-Exposed Twins, and the AIDS Clinical Trials Group 076 trial, which assessed the effectiveness of zidovudine in preventing mother-to-child HIV transmission. The effect of duration of breast-feeding upon the overall probability of mother-to-child HIV transmission, and therefore the age-specific risk of breast-feeding-related transmission, is highly sensitive to the degree of variation in infectivity. When substantial, the average risk of breast-feeding-related transmission declines rapidly with age and most infections occur in the early stages of breast-feeding. When the variation is less, infections attributable to breast-feeding are more evenly spread across the period of exposure to breast milk, although an imbalance towards early transmission remains.

Psychological distress, drug and alcohol use as correlates of condom use in HIV-serodiscordant heterosexual couples.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between psychological distress, alcohol, drug and condom use in HIV-serodiscordant heterosexual couples. METHODS: Structured interviews were conducted to collect demographic information, detailed data on psychological distress, drug and alcohol use and sexual behavior. RESULTS: Analyses were based on 106 pairs of sexually active discordant couples. Significant differences among heterosexual condom users and non-users varied according to gender and HIV serostatus. Affect domains of interpersonal sensitivity and hostility were significant, as were the variables of regular drug or alcohol use and combining sex with drugs or alcohol. Employment was strongly associated with condom use in HIV-negative women whose regular sexual partners were HIV-positive men. CONCLUSION: The risk of vaginal sex without condoms in HIV-serodiscordant heterosexual couples may be reduced by specific psychological counseling and attention to drug and alcohol use as risk factors. Further research on the effect of employment of HIV-negative women is required.

PIP: The authors investigated the relationship of psychological distress and drug and alcohol use to reported condom use in 106 sexually active HIV-serodiscordant heterosexual couples. Significant differences were found among heterosexual condom users and non-users which varied according to gender and HIV serostatus. Affect domains of interpersonal sensitivity and hostility were significant, as were the variables of regular drug or alcohol use and combining sex with drugs or alcohol. Further, employment was strongly associated with condom use HIV-negative women whose regular sex partners were HIV-positive men. The authors therefore conclude that the risk of vaginal sex without condoms in HIV-serodiscordant heterosexual couples may be reduced by specific psychological counseling and attention to drug and alcohol use as risk factors. Further research is, however, called for on the effect of employment on HIV-negative women.

Molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 in the former Soviet Union: analysis of env V3 sequences and their correlation with epidemiologic data.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the HIV-1 V3 sequence diversity in the former Soviet Union in 30 subjects infected with HIV-1 via different modes of transmission. PATIENTS: A cohort of children infected after exposure to nonsterile needles during the epidemic in 1988-1989 in southern Russia (Elista, n = 12 and Rostov-on-Don, n = 10), and eight HIV-seropositive subjects from Belarus (Minsk), infected via sexual (n = 7) and parenteral (n = 1) infection. METHODS: The HIV-1 V3 encoding region was amplified by nested polymerase chain reaction on DNA of primary peripheral blood mononuclear cells collected from the study subjects and then cloned and sequenced. RESULTS: The alignment of 127 V3 sequences from 22 patients in the cohort group demonstrated common consensus sequences in both the Elista and Rostov samples. The average means of interperson variation were 5.9 and 6.6% in Elista and Rostov subjects, respectively, and comparable to the mean intraperson variation. The average mean interperson variation between nucleotide sequences of HIV patients infected through sexual transmission was considerably higher (14.9%). CONCLUSION: V3 sequence analysis confirms the epidemiologic data which support the transmission of HIV-1 in children from a single source, and suggests the infection of a mother from her parenterally infected child. Furthermore, the genetic variability of HIV-1 V3 in the noncohort group was particularly divergent indicating the heterogeneity of the virus circulating in the former Soviet Union.

PIP: In 1988, an HIV-1 epidemic occurred in Elista, Kalmyk Republic, Russia, among 90 children in two hospitals after exposure to blood contaminated needles from an HIV infected infant. A few months later, a similar HIV-1 outbreak in children occurred in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, probably a result of transporting children from Elista to Rostov-on-Don hospitals. In Rostov-on-Don, it appears that seven HIV infected infants transmitted HIV to their mothers during breast feeding. Health workers collected blood samples from 22 HIV-1 infected subjects in Elista (n = 12) and Rostov-on-Don (n = 10 including 1 mother-child pair) and from 8 control subjects who became infected with HIV-1 via sexual (7) and parenteral (1) transmission from Minsk, Belarus. Researchers wanted to determine the extent of the diversity of proviral DNA encoding the V3 loop from different patients in the children cohort. They used nested polymerase chain reaction on DNA of primary peripheral blood mononuclear cells and then cloned and sequenced them to detail the HIV-1 V3 encoding region. The Elista and Rostov-on-Don samples shared common consensus sequences (127 nucleotide sequences) in the V3 region. The average mean interperson variation between the nucleotide sequences of HIV patients infected through sexual transmission from Minsk was 14.9%, which was much higher than those for Elista and Rostov HIV patients infected through parenteral transmission (5.9% and 6.6%, respectively). The major nucleotide sequence in the mother in the Rostov group, who was presumably infected with HIV by her HIV infected infant during breast feeding, matched that of her daughter. The mother had no history of blood transfusion or any other risk factors except breast feeding. These findings confirm that the Elista and Rostov groups shared a common HIV source. They also suggest that breast feeding was the route of HIV transmission for the mother. The genetic variability of HIV-1 V3 in the control group demonstrated the heterogeneity of HIV-1 in the former USSR.

A prospective study of vertical transmission of HIV-2 in Bissau, Guinea-Bissau.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the vertical transmission rate of HIV-2 and clinical findings associated with vertically transmitted HIV-2 infection. DESIGN: A prospective study of HIV-2 transmission in children of HIV-2-seropositive mothers, and a comparison of clinical findings between children of seropositive and seronegative mothers. SETTING: Recruitment of women delivering at the national hospital in Bissau, Guinea-Bissau. Follow-up by home visits. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Eighty-six newborns of 82 HIV-2-seropositive mothers and a control group of 102 newborns of HIV-seronegative mothers were followed-up clinically and by HIV serology until the children reached the age of 20 months. RESULTS: Of the 86 children of seropositive mothers, 51 had a complete follow-up, 22 died and 13 were lost due to change of residence. Of the 102 children of seronegative mothers, 63 had a complete follow-up, 13 died and 26 were lost due to change of residence. None of 51 children of seropositive mothers had serological evidence of HIV-2 infection at the end of the follow-up period. There was no significant difference in the frequency of clinical symptoms between the children in the study group and the children in the control group. The mortality during the first year of life was not significantly different between the children of seropositive and seronegative mothers (13 out of 80 and 11 out of 94, respectively, P > 0.05, excluding children lost to follow-up). Only three of the dead children of seropositive mothers and one of the dead children of seronegative mothers had any symptoms that might be related to HIV-2 infection (diarrhoea > 1 month). CONCLUSION: Vertical transmission of HIV-2 appears to be rare.

PIP: Between May 1987 and December 1988 in Guinea-Bissau, health workers followed 86 HIV-2 seropositive mothers and their infants delivered at the National Hospital Simao-Mendes in Bissau for 20 months to learn the HIV-2 vertical transmission rate and to compare their clinical findings with those of 102 infants of HIV-2 seronegative women. The ELISA and Western Blot analysis used antigen-purified virions of the SBL-6669 strain of HIV-2 grown on U937:2 cells. During the enrollment period, hospital workers tested 3246 women; tests confirmed that 211 (6.5%) and 3 (0.1%) were HIV-2 seropositive, respectively. 1 HIV-2 seronegative mother seroconverted during the study, but none of the infants of HIV-2 seronegative mothers seroconverted. Infant mortality of cases did not differ significantly from that of controls (16.2% vs. 11.7%). After 1 year of age, however, children of HIV-2 seropositive mothers were significantly more likely to die than the controls (15% vs. 3%; p .05). When the researchers added the children lost to follow up, there no longer was a significant difference in mortality after 1 year (23.9% vs. 24.1%). Just 3 of the deceased infants of the HIV-2 seropositive mothers and 1 of the deceased infants of seronegative mothers suffered from symptoms from symptoms that may have been related to HIV-2 infection. 1 of these deceased infants was HIV-2 seropositive at 12 months. These symptoms included prolonged fever, vomiting, diarrhea, and respiratory symptoms. Children in the study group did not experience more frequent clinical symptoms of HIV-2 infection than did the controls during the 3rd and 4th home visits. At the last visit (i.e., 4th visit; when the children were older than 17 months), none of the children of the HIV-2 seropositive mothers tested positive for HIV- 2. Vertical transmission of HIV-2 infection may be rare.

Maternal HIV infection and infant mortality in Malawi: evidence for increased mortality due to placental malaria infection.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the relationship between maternal HIV infection, placental malaria infection, and infant mortality as a first step in investigating the possibility of increased vertical transmission of HIV due to placental malaria infection. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of data from a cohort study of mothers and infants in rural Malawi conducted from 1987 to 1990. METHODS: Pregnant women in Malawi were enrolled in a study examining chemoprophylaxis during pregnancy. At delivery, placental malaria infection status was determined. Infants born into this study were visited every 2 months for the first 2-3 years of life. Deaths were investigated using a standardized 'verbal autopsy' interview. Maternal serum collected during pregnancy was tested for antibodies to HIV-1 by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay with Western blot confirmation. RESULTS: Overall, 138 (5.3%) of 2608 women in the study were HIV-1-seropositive. Infant mortality rates were 144 and 235 per 1000 live births for children born to HIV-seronegative and HIV-seropositive women, respectively (P < 0.001). In a multivariate model, the odds of dying during the post-neonatal period for an infant born to a mother with both placental malaria and HIV infection was 4.5 times greater than an infant born to a mother with only placental malaria, and between 2.7 and 7.7 times greater (depending on birthweight) than an infant born to a mother with only HIV infection. CONCLUSIONS: This study strongly suggests that exposure to both placental malaria infection and maternal HIV infection increases post-neonatal mortality beyond the independent risk associated with exposure to either maternal HIV or placental malaria infection. If confirmed, malaria chemoprophylaxis during pregnancy could decrease the impact of transmission of HIV from mother to infant.

PIP: Researchers analyzed data on 2608 women attending one of four prenatal clinics in Mangochi District in Malawi during 1987-1990 to study the relationship between maternal HIV infection, placental malaria infection, and infant mortality. 5.8% (138) of the women were HIV-1 seropositive. HIV-1 seroprevalence increased from 2.3% to 5.8% between 1987 and 1993. Infants born to HIV-1 positive mothers were much more likely to die during the first year of life than those born to HIV-1 negative mothers (235/1000 vs. 144/1000 live births; p 0.001). The excess deaths occurred during the postneonatal period (49 vs. 44, p = 0.3, for neonatal mortality, compared to 186 vs. 100, p 0.001, for postneonatal mortality). In the postneonatal period, diarrhea or gastrointestinal illness was more common as a cause of death among infants of HIV-1 positive mothers than those of HIV-1 negative mothers (8.7% vs. 3.6%; relative risk = 2.4; p = 0.0002). The researchers stratified the effect of maternal HIV infection on postneonatal death according to birth weight and placental malaria infection to control for potential confounding. They found that, when compared with normal birth weight infants born to seronegative mothers with no placental malaria infection, low birth weight infants born to HIV-1 positive mothers with placental malaria had an 11.49 increased odds of dying during the postneonatal period. The multivariate analysis showed that an infant born to an HIV-infected mother with placental malaria was 4.5 times more likely to die during the first year of life than an infant born to a mother with only placental malaria and 2.7-7.7 times (depending on birth weight) more likely to die than an infant born to a mother with only HIV infection. These findings suggest that malaria chemoprophylaxis during pregnancy would reduce the likelihood of HIV transmission from mother to infant in addition to reducing the burden of malaria infection during pregnancy, malaria-associated low birth weight, and their subsequent effect on child survival.

The social dynamics of HIV transmission as reflected through discordant couples in rural Uganda.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the role of men and women as sources of HIV transmission and to estimate HIV incidence among discordant couples resident in diverse rural communities in Uganda. SETTING: Rakai, a rural district in Uganda, East Africa. METHODS: A population-based cohort study, which has been conducted as annual serological and behavioral surveys since 1989. Community clusters were stratified into trading centers on main roads, intermediate trading villages on secondary roads and agricultural villages off roads. In the 1990 survey round, serological data were available for 79 discordant and 411 concordant HIV-negative couples aged 13-49 years. The present analysis examines sex-specific seropositivity associated with place of residence and the incidence of seroconversion among discordant couples between 1990 and 1991. RESULTS: Seventy-nine discordant couples were followed; the HIV-positive partner was male in 44 couples (57%) and female in 35 couples (43%). There was marked variation in the sex of the seropositive partner by place of residence: women were the HIV-positive partner in 57% of couples from trading centers, 52% from intermediate villages, and 20% from agricultural communities (P < 0.008). Condom use was higher in discordant couples in which the man was the uninfected partner (17.1%) rather than the woman (9.5%). HIV-positive women, but not HIV-positive men, reported significantly more sexual partners and more genital ulcers than seronegative individuals of the same sex. Seroincidence rates among men and women in discordant relationship were 8.7 and 9.2 per 100 person-years (PY), respectively, which was much higher than in concordant seronegative couples (men, 0.82; women, 0.87 per 100 PY). CONCLUSIONS: In this Ugandan population, men are the predominant source of new infections in rural villages. Risk factors and preventive behaviors vary with the sex of the infected partner, and seroconversion rates are similar in both sexes.

PIP: The analysis of marital relationships in rural Uganda in which one partner is infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) revealed important information about the social dynamics of HIV transmission. As part of an ongoing cohort study of over 3000 adults in southwestern Uganda's Rakai district, data were collected on 79 discordant couples. The HIV-infected partner was male in 44 couples (57%) and female in 35 couples (43%). In the trading centers and intermediate trading villages, women were more likely to be the HIV-infected partner (57% and 52%, respectively); in rural areas, however, the male partner was the HIV carrier in 80% of discordant couples. 14.3% of women in female HIV-positive compared to only 2.1% of those in male HIV-positive discordant relationships reported two or more sexual partners in the year preceding the interview; there was no significant difference on this factor among HIV-positive and HIV-negative men (48.8% and 45,7%, respectively). 17.1% of seronegative men with HIV-infected wives compared to only 9.5% of seropositive men with seronegative wives used condoms with their partner. During the one-year study period, the rate of seroconversion was 8.7/100 years of observation for men and 9.2 for women. Extrapolation of the data from this study to the district as a whole suggests that 18.7% of couples have at least one HIV-infected member. Needed are campaigns to promote monogamy and condom use, particularly among men from rural areas who travel to high prevalence trading areas.

The utility of verbal autopsies for identifying HIV-1-related deaths in Haitian children.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether deaths among Haitian infants born to HIV-1-seronegative women could be distinguished from deaths among children born to HIV-1-seropositive women using the verbal autopsy technique. METHODS: Mothers of 315 Haitian children who died were interviewed about events leading to the child's death. Three physicians independently reviewed interview data and determined the probable cause of death without knowledge of maternal HIV-1 status or hospital records. The underlying causes of death assigned to the infants were analyzed to determine whether maternal HIV status could be predicted. RESULTS: There was good agreement among the physicians (kappa = 0.62) and 90% agreement between hospital records and the verbal autopsy diagnosis. Compared with children born to HIV-1-seronegative women, deaths in children born to HIV-1-seropositive mothers were more likely to be ascribed to a presumptive diagnosis of AIDS (37 versus 21%; P = 0.01). The sensitivity and specificity of verbal autopsies for identifying deaths associated with maternal HIV-1 infection ranged from 37 to 59% and from 69 to 79%, respectively, depending on the classification system used. The predictive positive value of a death believed to be consistent with pediatric HIV-1 infection was 26-30% and the predictive negative value was 85-90%. CONCLUSION: Verbal autopsies may be useful for distinguishing certain causes of death, but have limited utility for distinguishing deaths associated with maternal HIV-1 infection from deaths among children born to HIV-1-seronegative women.

Female partners of AIDS patients in Uganda: reported knowledge, perceptions and plans.

OBJECTIVE: To assess reported knowledge of a partner's AIDS diagnosis, perceived risk of HIV infection, need for HIV testing and future support plans among women partners of male Ugandan AIDS patients. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: A cross-sectional descriptive survey was conducted at New Mulago Hospital, Kampala, Uganda. The subjects were women partners of consecutive male AIDS patients admitted to medical wards. RESULTS: Only 12% reported their partner's AIDS diagnosis; women who reported knowing were less likely to be financially dependent on the partner. Most women (76%) reported being at risk of HIV; in general, these women were older, in a newer relationship, had less children and were in customary rather than civil or cohabiting marriages. More than half (56%) of the women reported a need for HIV testing, though few (5%) had been tested. Those who stated the need for HIV testing were in a newer relationship, had less children and were more financially independent of their husbands; women in a cohabiting type marriage were less likely to report their need for testing than those in a civil or customary marriage. About half (56%) reported plans for future support if their husbands did not recover; these women were more likely to be in an older relationship and to have more children. CONCLUSIONS: Most women partners of AIDS patients in New Mulago Hospital reported no knowledge of their husbands' diagnosis. Over half perceived a need to be tested but very few reported having been tested, and only half reported having planned for the future of their families. Interventions are urgently needed to address barriers to knowledge and to acknowledgement of a partner's AIDS diagnosis, to HIV testing and to planning for the future.