Pathways for achieving conservation targets under metacoupled anthropogenic disturbances.

Enhancing connectivity between protected areas stands as a paramount objective in advancing global conservation goals, particularly in coastal regions grappling with escalating human disruptions. However, little attention has been given to quantitative assessment of human-nature interactions within and among protected areas. Here, we endeavored to model the connectivity between protected areas in rapidly urbanizing regions in China, drawing on insights from the framework of metacoupling based on connected corridors at short and long distances. In alignment with the overarching global conservation aim of increasing the overall coverage of protected areas, we found that adding new site to the protected area system yields superior connectivity gains compared to merely expanding the boundaries of the existing sites. Within the connectivity network between protected areas, we discerned specific sites acting as stepping stones, pivotal in enhancing connectivity among the chosen protected areas. Our study propounds a pragmatic methodology for prioritizing local protection initiatives and underscores the criticality of incorporating connectivity conservation strategies. This approach is vital for attaining regional biodiversity targets, given the dual perspective encompassing both human activities and the natural environment, particularly in the face of mounting anthropogenic disturbances.

Setting Targets for Wetland Restoration to Mitigate Climate Change Effects on Watershed Hydrology.

How much wetland we should protect or restore is not a simple question, such that conservation targets are often set according to political agendas, then standardized globally. However, given their key regulating hydrological functions, wetlands represent nature-based solutions to the anticipated, exacerbating effect of climate change on drought and flood events, which will vary at the regional scale. Here, we propose a science-based approach to establishing regional wetland restoration targets centered on their hydrological functions, using a case study on several sub-watersheds of a northern temperate basin in south-eastern Canada. We posit that restoration targets should minimally mitigate the negative effects of climate change on watershed hydrology, namely peak and low flows. We used a semi-distributed hydrological model, HYDROTEL, to perform a hydroclimatic assessment, including 47 climate projections over the 1979-2099 period, to test the effect of wetland restoration scenarios on peak and low flows. The results showed that hydrological responses to climate change varied among sub-watersheds (even at the scale of a relatively small region), and that, to mitigate these changes, increases in wetland coverage should be between 20% and up to 150%. At low restoration levels, increasing wetland coverage was more effective in attenuating floods than alleviating droughts. This study indicates that a no-net-loss policy is insufficient to maintain current hydrological cycles in the face of climate change; rather, a 'net gain' in wetland cover is needed.

Is there evidence of shifting baseline syndrome in environmental managers? An assessment using perceptions of bird population targets in UK nature reserves.

Shifting baseline syndrome (SBS) describes changing perceptions of biological conditions due to a loss of historical knowledge. Perceptions of 'normal' environmental conditions are continually updated, leading to underestimation of the true magnitude of long-term ecological change and potential setting of unambitious management targets. There has been speculation as to the presence and impacts of SBS within conservation management since Daniel Pauly's seminal paper in 1995, which outlined the potential effects of SBS on target-setting in fisheries management. Previous case studies have suggested that SBS may not occur in management, despite empirical evidence of SBS in other systems. In this study, 44 professionals and volunteers involved in bird species management, monitoring and target-setting across England were interviewed. Interviews asked for personal perceptions of current, maximum and target abundance, long-term trends, and perceived conservation priority for six bird species. Using paired tests, this study found no significant effect of experience on perceptions of current, maximum or target abundance of all species, despite differences in national abundance and trends, and differences in participant experience. Further power analysis indicated that even if SBS was statistically detectible with a larger sample, the practical implications of the syndrome would be minimal due to small effect sizes. Finally, the effect of experience on individual perceptions of species conservation priority varied between species, with generational amnesia in the form of 'lifting baselines' suggested for only one of the six species. This study suggests that shifting baseline syndrome may not be as significant a threat in conservation management as first thought.

Global human influence maps reveal clear opportunities in conserving Earth's remaining intact terrestrial ecosystems.

Leading up to the Convention on Biological Diversity Conference of the Parties 15, there is momentum around setting bold conservation targets. Yet, it remains unclear how much of Earth's land area remains without significant human influence and where this land is located. We compare four recent global maps of human influences across Earth's land, Anthromes, Global Human Modification, Human Footprint and Low Impact Areas, to answer these questions. Despite using various methodologies and data, these different spatial assessments independently estimate similar percentages of the Earth's terrestrial surface as having very low (20%-34%) and low (48%-56%) human influence. Three out of four spatial assessments agree on 46% of the non-permanent ice- or snow-covered land as having low human influence. However, much of the very low and low influence portions of the planet are comprised of cold (e.g., boreal forests, montane grasslands and tundra) or arid (e.g., deserts) landscapes. Only four biomes (boreal forests, deserts, temperate coniferous forests and tundra) have a majority of datasets agreeing that at least half of their area has very low human influence. More concerning, <1% of temperate grasslands, tropical coniferous forests and tropical dry forests have very low human influence across most datasets, and tropical grasslands, mangroves and montane grasslands also have <1% of land identified as very low influence across all datasets. These findings suggest that about half of Earth's terrestrial surface has relatively low human influence and offers opportunities for proactive conservation actions to retain the last intact ecosystems on the planet. However, though the relative abundance of ecosystem areas with low human influence varies widely by biome, conserving these last intact areas should be a high priority before they are completely lost.

Evaluating and expanding the European Union's protected-area network toward potential post-2020 coverage targets.

The Convention on Biological Diversity's (CBD) strategic plan will expire in 2020, but biodiversity loss is ongoing. Scientists call for more ambitious targets in the next agreement. The nature-needs-half movement, for example, has advocated conserving half of Earth to solve the biodiversity crisis, which has been translated to protecting 50% of each ecoregion. We evaluated current protection levels of ecoregions in the territory of one of the CBD's signatories, the European Union (EU). We also explored the possible enlargement of the Natura 2000 network to implement 30% or 50% ecoregion coverage in the EU member states' protected area (PA) network. Based on the most recent land-use data, we examined whether ecoregions have enough natural area left to reach such high coverage targets. We used a spatially explicit mixed integer programing model to estimate the least-cost expansion of the PA network based on 3 scenarios that put different emphasis on total conservation cost, ecological representation of ecosystems, or emphasize an equal share of the burden among member states. To realize 30% and 50% ecoregion coverage, the EU would need to add 6.6% and 24.2%, respectively, of its terrestrial area to its PA network. For all 3 scenarios, the EU would need to designate most recommended new PAs in seminatural forests and other semi- or natural ecosystems. Because 15 ecoregions did not have enough natural area left to implement the ecoregion-coverage targets, some member states would also need to establish new PAs on productive land, allocating the largest share to arable land. Thirty percent ecoregion coverage was met by protecting remaining natural areas in all ecoregions except 3, where productive land would also need to be included. Our results support discussions of higher ecoregions protection targets for post-2020 biodiversity frameworks.

Evaluación y Expansión de la Red de Áreas Protegidas de la Unión Europea hacia Objetivos Potenciales de Cobertura Post 2020 Resumen El plan estratégico del Convenio sobre la Diversidad Biológica (CBD) expirará en 2020, pero la pérdida de la biodiversidad continúa. Los científicos exigen objetivos más ambiciosos para el siguiente acuerdo. Por ejemplo, la corriente la-naturaleza-necesita-la-mitad ha abogado por la conservación de la mitad del planeta para resolver la crisis de la biodiversidad, lo que se ha traducido a la protección del 50% de cada ecoregión. Evaluamos los niveles actuales de protección de las ecoregiones en el territorio de uno de los signatarios de la CBD, la Unión Europea (UE). También exploramos el posible crecimiento de la red Natura 2000 para implementar una cobertura del 30% o 50% de las ecoregiones en la red de áreas protegidas (AP) de los estados miembros de la UE. Con base en los datos más recientes de uso de suelo, examinamos si las ecoregiones todavía tienen suficiente área natural como para alcanzar tales objetivos tan altos de cobertura. Usamos un modelo de programación entera mixta espacialmente explícito para estimar la expansión más asequible de la red de AP con base en tres escenarios que colocan un énfasis diferente sobre el costo total de la conservación, la representación ecológica de los ecosistemas o que enfaticen un porcentaje equitativo de la carga entre los estados miembros. Para alcanzar una cobertura del 30% y 50% de las ecoregiones, la UE necesitaría añadir 6.6% y 24.2%, respectivamente, de su área terrestre a la red de AP. Para los tres escenarios, la UE necesitaría designar la mayoría de las nuevas AP recomendadas en bosques seminaturales y en otros ecosistemas semi- o totalmente naturales. Debido a que 15 ecoregiones no tenían ya suficiente área natural para implementar los objetivos de cobertura de ecoregiones, algunos estados miembros también necesitarían establecer nuevas AP en suelo productivo, asignando la proporción mayor al suelo arable. La cobertura del 30% de las ecoregiones se alcanzó con la protección de las áreas naturales permanecientes en todas las ecoregiones salvo tres, en donde el suelo productivo también necesitaría estar incluido. Nuestros resultados respaldan las discusiones sobre objetivos más altos de protección de ecoregiones para los marcos de trabajo post 2020 para la biodiversidad.

A composite measure of habitat loss for entire assemblages of species.

Habitat destruction is among the greatest threats facing biodiversity, and it affects common and threatened species alike. However, metrics for communicating its impacts typically overlook the nonthreatened component of assemblages. This risks the loss of habitat going unreported for species that comprise the majority of assemblages. We adapted a widely used measure for summarizing researcher output (the h index) to provide a metric that describes natural habitat loss for entire assemblages, inclusive of threatened and nonthreatened species. For each of 447 Australian native terrestrial bird species, we combined information on their association with broad vegetation groups with distributional range maps to identify the difference between the estimated pre-European and current extents of potential habitat, defined as vegetation groups most closely associated with each species. From this, we calculated the loss index (LI), which revealed that 30% of native birds have each lost at least 30% of their potential natural habitat (LI = 30). At the subcontinental scale, LIs ranged from 15 in arid Australia to 61 in the highly transformed southeastern part of the country. Different subcomponents of the assemblage had different LI values. For example, Australia's parrots (n = 52 species) had an LI of 38, whereas raptors (n = 32 species) had an LI of 25. The LI is simple to calculate and can be determined using readily available spatial information on species distributions, native vegetation associations, and human impacts on natural land cover. This metric, including the curves used to deduce it, could complement other biodiversity indices if it is used for regional and global biodiversity assessments that compare the status of natural habitat extent for assemblages within and among nations, monitor changes through time, and forecast future changes to guide strategic land-use planning. The LI is an intuitive tool that can be used to summarize and communicate how human actions affect whole assemblages, not just threatened species.

Una Medida Compuesta de la Pérdida del Hábitat para Ensamblajes Enteros de Especies Resumen La destrucción del hábitat está entre las principales amenazas para la biodiversidad, además de que afecta tanto a especies comunes como a las especies amenazadas. Sin embargo, las medidas para comunicar los impactos de esta destrucción generalmente ignoran al componente no amenazado de los ensamblajes de especies. Esto genera el riesgo de que la pérdida del hábitat pase desapercibida en el caso de las especies que conforman a la mayoría de los ensamblajes. Adaptamos una medida de uso amplio para resumir las contribuciones de los investigadores (el índice h) y así proporcionar una medida que describa la pérdida del hábitat para ensamblajes enteros, incluyendo a las especies amenazadas y a las no amenazadas. Para cada una de las 447 especies de aves terrestres nativas a Australia, combinamos la información sobre su asociación con grupos generales de vegetación con mapas de extensión de su distribución para identificar la diferencia entre la extensión estimada previa a la llegada de los europeos y la extensión actual de los hábitats potenciales, definidos como los grupos de vegetación asociados más cercanamente con cada especie. A partir de esto, calculamos el índice de pérdida (LI, en inglés), el cual reveló que el 30% de cada una de las aves nativas ha perdido al menos el 30% de su hábitat natural potencial (LI = 30). A escala subcontinental, los LI variaron desde 15 para las partes áridas de Australia, hasta 61 en la altamente transformada parte sureste del país. Los diferentes subcomponentes del ensamblaje tuvieron diferentes valores de LI. Por ejemplo, los loros australianos (n = 52 especies) tuvieron un LI de 38, mientras que las aves rapaces (n = 32 especies) tuvieron un LI de 25. El LI es fácil de calcular y puede determinarse usando información espacial que ya se encuentra disponible, las asociaciones con la vegetación nativa y los impactos humanos sobre la cobertura natural del suelo. Esta medida, incluyendo las curvas que se usan para deducirla, podrían complementar otros índices de biodiversidad si se usa para evaluaciones de la biodiversidad regional y global, las cuales comparan el estado de la extensión del hábitat natural para ensamblajes dentro y entre las naciones, monitorean cambios a través del tiempo y pronostican cambios futuros que guíen la planeación del uso de suelo estratégico. El LI es una herramienta intuitiva que puede usarse para resumir y comunicar cómo las acciones humanas afectan a ensamblajes enteros, no sólo a las especies amenazadas.

Quantifying biases in marine-protected-area placement relative to abatable threats.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a critical defense against biodiversity loss in the world's oceans, but to realize near-term conservation benefits, they must be established where major threats to biodiversity occur and can be mitigated. We quantified the degree to which MPA establishment has targeted stoppable threats (i.e., threats that can be abated through effectively managed MPAs alone) by combining spatially explicit marine biodiversity threat data in 2008 and 2013 and information on the location and potential of MPAs to halt threats. We calculated an impact metric to determine whether countries are protecting proportionally more high- or low-threat ecoregions and compared observed values with random protected-area allocation. We found that protection covered <2% of ecoregions in national waters with high levels of abatable threat in 2013, which is ∼59% less protection in high-threat areas than if MPAs had been placed randomly. Relatively low-threat ecoregions had 6.3 times more strict protection (International Union for Conservation of Nature categories I-II) than high-threat ecoregions. Thirty-one ecoregions had high levels of stoppable threat but very low protection, which presents opportunities for MPAs to yield more significant near-term conservation benefits. The extent of the global MPA estate has increased, but the establishment of MPAs where they can reduce threats that are driving biodiversity loss is now urgently needed.

Sesgos de Cuantificación en la Ubicación de Áreas Marinas Protegidas en Relación con las Amenazas Abatibles a la Biodiversidad Resumen Las áreas marinas protegidas (MPAs, en inglés) son un sistema de defensa crítica contra la pérdida de biodiversidad en los océanos del mundo, pero para hacer realidad los beneficios de conservación de corto plazo, estas áreas deben establecerse en donde ocurren la mayoría de las amenazas para la biodiversidad y en donde puedan mitigarse. Cuantificamos el grado al cual la fundación de MPAs se ha enfocado en amenazas abatibles (es decir, amenazas que pueden abatirse solamente por medio de MPAs manejadas efectivamente) al combinar los datos de amenazas para la biodiversidad marina espacialmente explícita en 2008 y en 2013 y la información sobre la ubicación y el potencial que tienen las MPAs para detener las amenazas. Calculamos una medida de impacto para determinar si los países están protegiendo proporcionalmente más ecoregiones de alta o baja amenaza y comparamos los valores observados con las áreas protegidas asignadas al azar. Descubrimos que la protección cubría <2% de las ecoregiones en aguas nacionales con niveles altos de amenazas abatibles en 2013, lo cual es ∼59% menos protección en las áreas de alta amenaza que si las MPAs se hubieran ubicado al azar. Las ecoregiones con una baja amenaza relativa tuvieron 6.3 veces más protección estricta (categorías I-II de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza) que las ecoregiones con amenaza alta. Treinta y un ecoregiones tuvieron niveles altos de amenazas abatibles pero muy baja protección, lo cual representa oportunidades para que las MPAs tengan más beneficios significativos a corto plazo. La extensión del conjunto global de MPAs ha incrementado, pero la fundación de MPAs en lugares donde pueden reducir laamenazas que causan la pérdida de biodiversidad es una necesidad urgente en día.

Addressing Criticisms of Large-Scale Marine Protected Areas.

Designated large-scale marine protected areas (LSMPAs, 100,000 or more square kilometers) constitute over two-thirds of the approximately 6.6% of the ocean and approximately 14.5% of the exclusive economic zones within marine protected areas. Although LSMPAs have received support among scientists and conservation bodies for wilderness protection, regional ecological connectivity, and improving resilience to climate change, there are also concerns. We identified 10 common criticisms of LSMPAs along three themes: (1) placement, governance, and management; (2) political expediency; and (3) social-ecological value and cost. Through critical evaluation of scientific evidence, we discuss the value, achievements, challenges, and potential of LSMPAs in these arenas. We conclude that although some criticisms are valid and need addressing, none pertain exclusively to LSMPAs, and many involve challenges ubiquitous in management. We argue that LSMPAs are an important component of a diversified management portfolio that tempers potential losses, hedges against uncertainty, and enhances the probability of achieving sustainably managed oceans.

Countering resistance to protected-area extension.

The establishment of protected areas is a critical strategy for conserving biodiversity. Key policy directives like the Aichi targets seek to expand protected areas to 17% of Earth's land surface, with calls by some conservation biologists for much more. However, in places such as the United States, Germany, and Australia, attempts to increase protected areas are meeting strong resistance from communities, industry groups, and governments. We examined case studies of such resistance in Victoria, Australia, Bavaria, Germany, and Florida, United States. We considered 4 ways to tackle this problem. First, broaden the case for protected areas beyond nature conservation to include economic, human health, and other benefits, and translate these into a persuasive business case for protected areas. Second, better communicate the conservation values of protected areas. This should include highlighting how many species, communities, and ecosystems have been conserved by protected areas and the counterfactual (i.e., what would have been lost without protected area establishment). Third, consider zoning of activities to ensure the maintenance of effective management. Finally, remind citizens to think about conservation when they vote, including holding politicians accountable for their environmental promises. Without tackling resistance to expanding the protected estate, it will be impossible to reach conservation targets, and this will undermine attempts to stem the global extinction crisis.

Using modeling tools for implementing feasible land use and nature conservation governance systems in small islands - The Pico Island (Azores) case-study.

The present study deals with the development of systematic conservation planning as management instrument in small oceanic islands, ensuring open systems of governance, and able to integrate an informed and involved participation of the stakeholders. Marxan software was used to define management areas according a set of alternative land use scenarios considering different conservation and management paradigms. Modeled conservation zones were interpreted and compared with the existing protected areas allowing more fused information for future trade-outs and stakeholder's involvement. The results, allowing the identification of Target Management Units (TMU) based on the consideration of different development scenarios proved to be consistent with a feasible development of evaluation approaches able to support sound governance systems. Moreover, the detailed geographic identification of TMU seems to be able to support participated policies towards a more sustainable management of the entire island.

Harder, better, faster, stronger? Dispersal in the Anthropocene.

The dispersal of organisms in the Anthropocene has been profoundly altered by human activities, with far-reaching consequences for humans, biodiversity, and ecosystems. Managing such dispersal effectively is critical to achieve the 2030 targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. Here, we bring together insights from invasion science, movement ecology, and conservation biology, and extend a widely used classification framework for the introduction pathways of alien species to encompass other forms of dispersal. We develop a simple, global scheme for classifying the movement of organisms into the types of dispersal that characterise the Anthropocene. The scheme can be used to improve our understanding of dispersal, provide policy relevant advice, inform conservation and biosecurity actions, and enable monitoring and reporting towards conservation targets.

Incorporating global change reveals extinction risk beyond the current Red List.

Global changes over the past few decades have caused species distribution shifts and triggered population declines and local extinctions of many species. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species (Red List) is regarded as the most comprehensive tool for assessing species extinction risk and has been used at regional, national, and global scales. However, most Red Lists rely on the past and current status of species populations and distributions but do not adequately reflect the risks induced by future global changes. Using distribution maps of >4,000 endemic woody species in China, combined with ensembled species distribution models, we assessed the species threat levels under future climate and land-cover changes using the projected changes in species' suitable habitats and compared our updated Red List with China's existing Red List. We discover an increased number of threatened species in the updated Red List and increased threat levels of >50% of the existing threatened species compared with the existing one. Over 50% of the newly identified threatened species are not adequately covered by protected areas. The Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, rather than the Hengduan Mountains, is the distribution center of threatened species on the updated Red Lists, as opposed to the threatened species on the existing Red List. Our findings suggest that using Red Lists without considering the impacts of future global changes will underestimate the extinction risks and lead to a biased estimate of conservation priorities, potentially limiting the ability to meet the Kunming-Montreal global conservation targets.

European Rabbit Invasion in a Semi-Arid Ecosystem of Chile: How Relevant Is Its Role in Food Webs?

The European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) is one of the main invasive species in Chile, where it became naturalized ca. 150 years ago. Their high reproductive capacity, lack of specialist predators, and great adaptability favored the settlement of rabbits in diverse mainland and island ecosystems of the country. Recently, rabbits have become central players in semi-arid ecosystems, such as those represented in Las Chinchillas National Reserve in north-central Chile. We undertook to analyze the place and role of rabbits in the food web of that Reserve, based on a bibliographic review and long-term annual data gathered from 1987 until 2022 (36 years). Results showed that the network comprised 77 species, where 69% were primary producers (plants), 18% were mid-level consumers (herbivores), and 13% were top-level consumers (predators). The most connected species in the food web was the rabbit, which positively or negatively affected the species interacting with it. Predators such as Galictis cuja, Geranoaetus polyosoma, Leopardus colocolo, and Puma concolor, and the scavenger Vultur gryphus, could be negatively affected by an eventual decrease (natural or human-caused) in the rabbit population of the Reserve. To the contrary, primary producers such as Oxalis perdicaria, Plantago hispidula, Schizanthus parvulus, Senna cumminggi, and Tropaeolum azureum could be positively affected by an increase in their biomass in response to a decrease in rabbits, favoring native rodents. We consider that analyzing the rabbit-centered food web and its impacts on native interacting species allows a better understanding of the relevance of invasive species in the local community, providing conceptual tools for rabbit management.

Assessing the potential of Other Effective area-based Conservation Measures (OECMs) for contributing to conservation targets: A global scoping review protocol.

This scoping review (ScR) protocol aims to establish the methodological approach for identifying and mapping the evidence regarding the actual contribution of Other Effective area-based Conservation Measures (OECMs) to spatial conservation targets. Emphasis will be placed on examining the research conducted, including the methodologies applied. OECMs, introduced by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) in 2010, refer to areas outside of protected areas, such as fisheries restricted areas, archaeological sites, and military areas, that effectively conserve biodiversity in-situ over the long term. OECMs are recognized rather than designated. Many countries currently endeavor to identify, recognize and report OECMs to the CBD for formal acceptance to support the implementation of spatial conservation targets. Studies that assess the contribution of OECMs to spatial conservation targets will be considered. Potential OECMs with primary, secondary or ancillary conservation objectives established by all sectors in the terrestrial, freshwater and marine realm worldwide will be considered. Peer-reviewed and grey literature will be considered without imposing limitations based on publication year, stage, subject area and source type. Both experimental and observational studies in English, French, German, Greek, Italian, and Spanish will be reviewed. The ScR will follow the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) methodology. The protocol will be guided by the PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) extension for scoping reviews. The search will encompass bibliographic databases such as Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar. Grey literature sources will include databases, pre-print archives and organizational websites. The Covidence platform will be utilized for data management and extraction.

Current practices in marine systematic conservation planning: protocol for a global scoping review.

Background: Systematic Conservation Planning (SCP) involves a series of steps to identify conservation areas and develop management strategies, incorporating feedbacks, revisions, and iterations at any stage. It is a valuable tool in facilitating the effective implementation of Ecosystem-Based Marine Spatial Planning (EB-MSP). However, few efforts have been carried out to summarize information on methods, trends, and progress in SCP in the designation of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). The present work aims at providing the protocol to perform a scoping review (ScR) to assess the contribution of SCP to the design of effective MPA networks, identifying both the development of good practices and the presence of gaps of knowledge in terms of criteria for their implementation. Protocol: The ScR will follow the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) methodology. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) extension for ScRs supported the definition of this protocol. The three databases Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar will be used for the bibliographic search. Inclusion criteria will be as follows: studies applying SCP in the marine realms worldwide, assessing its contribution to the design of MPA networks. Both peer-reviewed and grey literature will be considered for eligibility. No search limitations will be applied regarding publications' year, stage, subject area and source type. Studies in English, French, German, Greek, Italian, and Spanish will be reviewed. Grey literature will be sourced from pre-print archives, institutional websites and other web-based search engines. The Covidence software will be used for the process of documents selection and data extraction. The findings of the ScR will be presented through tables, graphs, and maps, accompanied by a narrative summary of the outcomes. Conclusions: This comprehensive approach will provide a visual representation of the data, enhancing the understanding and interpretation of the results.

Ambitious global targets for mangrove and seagrass recovery.

There is an urgent need to halt and reverse loss of mangroves and seagrass to protect and increase the ecosystem services they provide to coastal communities, such as enhancing coastal resilience and contributing to climate stability.1,2 Ambitious targets for their recovery can inspire public and private investment in conservation,3 but the expected outcomes of different protection and restoration strategies are unclear. We estimated potential recovery of mangroves and seagrass through gains in ecosystem extent to the year 2070 under a range of protection and restoration strategies implemented until the year 2050. Under a protection-only scenario, the current trajectories of net mangrove loss slowed, and a minor net gain in global seagrass extent (∼1%) was estimated. Protection alone is therefore unlikely to drive sufficient recovery. However, if action is taken to both protect and restore, net gains of up to 5% and 35% of mangroves and seagrasses, respectively, could be achieved by 2050. Further, protection and restoration can be complementary, as protection prevents losses that would otherwise occur post-2050, highlighting the importance of implementing protection measures. Our findings provide the scientific evidence required for setting strategic and ambitious targets to inspire significant global investment and effort in mangrove and seagrass conservation.

Frontiers of protected areas versus forest exploitation: Assessing habitat network functionality in 16 case study regions globally.

Exploitation of natural forests forms expanding frontiers. Simultaneously, protected area frontiers aim at maintaining functional habitat networks. To assess net effects of these frontiers, we examined 16 case study areas on five continents. We (1) mapped protected area instruments, (2) assessed their effectiveness, (3) mapped policy implementation tools, and (4) effects on protected areas originating from their surroundings. Results are given as follows: (1) conservation instruments covered 3-77%, (2) effectiveness of habitat networks depended on representativeness, habitat quality, functional connectivity, resource extraction in protected areas, time for landscape restoration, "paper parks", "fortress conservation", and data access, (3) regulatory policy instruments dominated over economic and informational, (4) negative matrix effects dominated over positive ones (protective forests, buffer zones, inaccessibility), which were restricted to former USSR and Costa Rica. Despite evidence-based knowledge about conservation targets, the importance of spatial segregation of conservation and use, and traditional knowledge, the trajectories for biodiversity conservation were generally negative.

Scenarios and Models to Support Global Conservation Targets.

Global biodiversity targets have far-reaching implications for nature conservation worldwide. Scenarios and models hold unfulfilled promise for ensuring such targets are well founded and implemented; here, we review how they can and should inform the Aichi Targets of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity and their reformulation. They offer two clear benefits: providing a scientific basis for the wording and quantitative elements of targets; and identifying synergies and trade-offs by accounting for interactions between targets and the actions needed to achieve them. The capacity of scenarios and models to address complexity makes them invaluable for developing meaningful targets and policy, and improving conservation outcomes.