Is obesity a risk factor for melanoma?

OBJECTIVES: Are twofold: 1) to estimate the relationship between obesity (BMI ≥30) and the prevalence of melanoma in different US states and 2) to examine the possibility of defining a new risk group. This might enhance the possibility of detection, which in turn, might increase the survival rates of patients. STUDY DESIGN: A cohort Study, based on data at the US statewide level in 2011-2017, where the dependent variable (the annual new melanoma cases per 100,000 persons) is adjusted for age. METHOD: Quadratic regression analysis. This model permits a non-monotonic variation of obesity with new melanoma cases adjusted for age, where the control variable is the level of UV radiation. RESULTS: Demonstrate a negative correlation between obesity and incidence of melanoma. This outcome is further corroborated for Caucasians. CONCLUSIONS: We should continue to establish primary prevention of melanoma by raising photo protection awareness and secondary prevention by promoting skin screening (by physician or self) among the entire population group in all BMI ranges. Advanced secondary melanoma prevention including noninvasive diagnosis strategies including total body photography, confocal microscopy, AI strategies should focus the high-risk sub group of Caucasians with BMI < 30.

To lockdown or not against COVID19: Can the power of education provide the answer?

Global education is a well-known positive externality associated with children-parents knowledge spillover. More education may also lead to increased communication among family members regarding health knowledge and skills acquired at or after school, positively affecting health behavior. One important aspect that should be considered by policy makers is the potential promotion of social behavior adapted to the COVID2019 pandemic via the education system. The current study attempts to investigate the relationships between infection and recovery rates from coronavirus and the educational achievement of the population at the US statewide level. Based on the ranking of US States (including US sponsored areas) according to the percent of the population that completed high school and above from the top (93%) to the bottom (68.9%), findings suggest that as the level of educational achievement drops, projected infection rates rise and projected recovery rates drop. Research findings demonstrate the importance of educational achievement in addressing the coronavirus pandemic. Specifically, avoiding closings and opening the school systems under the appropriate limitations may have the long-run effect of children-parents knowledge spillover regarding the COVID19 pandemic. This, in turn, might promote public re-education and spread the adoption of desirable social behavior under conditions of COVID19 pandemic, such as, social distancing and wearing masks.

Can COVID-19 herd immunity be achieved at a city level?

We propose a new approach to estimate the vaccination rates required to achieve herd immunity against SARS-COV2 virus at a city level. Based on information obtained from the Israeli Ministry of Health, we estimate two separate quadratic models, one for each dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA Pfizer vaccine. The dependent variable is the scope of morbidity, expressed as the number of cases per 10,000 persons. The independent variables are the first and second vaccination rates and their squares. The outcomes corroborate that herd immunity is achieved in the case that 71 percent of the urban population is vaccinated, and the minimum anticipated scope of morbidity is approximately 5 active COVID-19 cases per 10,000 persons, compared to 53-67 cases per 10,000 persons for zero vaccination rate. Findings emphasize the importance of vaccinations and demonstrate that urban herd immunity may be defined as a situation in which people continue to interact, yet the COVID-19 spread is contained. This, in turn, might prevent the need for lockdowns or other limitations at the city level.

What is the optimal country for minimum COVID-19 morbidity and mortality rates?

The SARS-CoV-2 is a deceptive virus. Despite the remarkable progress in genetic sequencing and subsequent vaccine development, the world continues to grapple with the ominous threats of rapidly appearing SARS-CoV-2 variants. The objective of this manuscript is to rank world countries based on the anticipated scope of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, measured in terms of prevalence per 1 million persons, from the lowest to the highest. The ranking of 162 countries is based on predictions of empirical models, which include three explanatory variables: hospital beds per thousand persons, population density, and the median age of the country's population. Referring to the COVID-19 scope of morbidity, the lowest likelihood of infection is obtained in Niger and Mali, where the dominant characteristic is the young median age (15.1-16.4 years). Referring to the COVID-19 scope of mortality, the lowest likelihood is obtained in Singapore. For Singapore, the dominant feature is the high population density. The optimal solution is intensive vaccination campaigns in the initial phase of the pandemic, particularly among countries with low GDP per capita. Yet, vaccinations may work only where the personal immune system is healthy and thus respond by creating antibodies to the SARS-CoV2 virus. Referring to populations that lack the natural protection of the healthy immune system and thus cannot be vaccinated (e.g., old people, cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy treatments), a complementary solution might be coordination between countries and the establishment of field hospitals, testing laboratories, isolation of areas, humanitarian aid-in the same manner of treatment in other disasters like earthquakes.

Covid 19 vaccination: Accessibility or literacy? Israel as a case study.

Israel is ranked as the leading country in terms of prevalence of vaccination against SARS-COV-2 virus (persons vaccinated divided by total population). Based on updated data as of January 19, 2021, the objective of the current study is to assess the relationship between the prevalence of vaccination and population density. A-priori, given the better infrastructure of health services (more physicians and nurses per 1000 persons), one would anticipate a higher level of vaccination in denser cities. Surprisingly, the outcomes demonstrate an opposite relationship: a lower level in the per capita level of vaccination with higher population densities from 0.2144 for 2 persons per sq. Km. to a minimum of 0.007191 for 16,642 persons per sq. Km. Given the relatively good accessibility to vaccination centers and high spread of clinics and health centers in Israel, research findings thus stress the major importance of promoting the benefits of vaccination (vaccination literacy) to diversified populations.

The median age of a city's residents and population density influence COVID 19 mortality growth rates: policy implications.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 is an infectious virus, which has generated a global pandemic. Israel was one of the first countries to vaccinate its population, inaugurating the program on December 20, 2020. The objective of the current study is to investigate the projected daily COVID19 mortality growth rate with higher median age and population size of cities under two scenarios: with and without the BNT162b2 Pfizer vaccination against the SAR-COV2 virus. METHODS: This study employs a panel data-set. We follow the COVID19 mortality growth rate in each of the 173 Israeli cities and towns starting from March 21, 2020 (10 days after the first documentation of COVID19 cases in Israel) until September 21, 2021, where the BNT162b2 Pfizer vaccinations were available starting from December 20, 2020. RESULTS: Referring to the median age of municipal residents, findings suggest that the BNT162b2 Pfizer vaccinations attenuate the rise in anticipated daily mortality growth rate for cities and towns in which the median population age is 30 years old (the range in median age among the residents in the municipalities surveyed is 11-41 years). Moreover, referring to population size of cities, findings demonstrate that while under the scenario without vaccination, the daily mortality growth rate is anticipated to rise, under a comparable scenario with vaccination, daily mortality growth rate is anticipated to drop. CONCLUSIONS: In crowded cities, where the median age is high, two perspectives of early and intensive public policy interventions are clearly required. The first perspective is extensive medical treatment, namely, extension of availability of medical physical and online services; dispensing designated medications; expansion of hospitalization facilities and information services particularly to susceptible populations. All measures will be taken with attention to age accessibility of these means. The second perspective is prevention via establishment of testing and vaccination complexes; elevation of dedicated health services, generating selective lockdowns; education for increasing awareness to social distancing, wearing masks and other preventive means.