Creating a Modified Version of the Cambridge Multimorbidity Score to Predict Mortality in People Older Than 16 Years: Model Development and Validation.

BACKGROUND: No single multimorbidity measure is validated for use in NHS (National Health Service) England's General Practice Extraction Service Data for Pandemic Planning and Research (GDPPR), the nationwide primary care data set created for COVID-19 pandemic research. The Cambridge Multimorbidity Score (CMMS) is a validated tool for predicting mortality risk, with 37 conditions defined by Read Codes. The GDPPR uses the more internationally used Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine clinical terms (SNOMED CT). We previously developed a modified version of the CMMS using SNOMED CT, but the number of terms for the GDPPR data set is limited making it impossible to use this version. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop and validate a modified version of CMMS using the clinical terms available for the GDPPR. METHODS: We used pseudonymized data from the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC), which has an extensive SNOMED CT list. From the 37 conditions in the original CMMS model, we selected conditions either with (1) high prevalence ratio (≥85%), calculated as the prevalence in the RSC data set but using the GDPPR set of SNOMED CT codes, divided by the prevalence included in the RSC SNOMED CT codes or (2) conditions with lower prevalence ratios but with high predictive value. The resulting set of conditions was included in Cox proportional hazard models to determine the 1-year mortality risk in a development data set (n=500,000) and construct a new CMMS model, following the methods for the original CMMS study, with variable reduction and parsimony, achieved by backward elimination and the Akaike information stopping criterion. Model validation involved obtaining 1-year mortality estimates for a synchronous data set (n=250,000) and 1-year and 5-year mortality estimates for an asynchronous data set (n=250,000). We compared the performance with that of the original CMMS and the modified CMMS that we previously developed using RSC data. RESULTS: The initial model contained 22 conditions and our final model included 17 conditions. The conditions overlapped with those of the modified CMMS using the more extensive SNOMED CT list. For 1-year mortality, discrimination was high in both the derivation and validation data sets (Harrell C=0.92) and 5-year mortality was slightly lower (Harrell C=0.90). Calibration was reasonable following an adjustment for overfitting. The performance was similar to that of both the original and previous modified CMMS models. CONCLUSIONS: The new modified version of the CMMS can be used on the GDPPR, a nationwide primary care data set of 54 million people, to enable adjustment for multimorbidity in predicting mortality in people in real-world vaccine effectiveness, pandemic planning, and other research studies. It requires 17 variables to produce a comparable performance with our previous modification of CMMS to enable it to be used in routine data using SNOMED CT.

Novel Synergistic Approach: Tazarotene-Calcipotriol-Loaded-PVA/PVP-Nanofibers Incorporated in Hydrogel Film for Management and Treatment of Psoriasis.

Psoriasis is an autoimmune skin disease that generally affects 1%-3% of the total population globally. Effective treatment of psoriasis is limited because of numerous factors, such as ineffective drug delivery and efficacy following conventional pharmaceutical treatments. Nanofibers are widely being used as nanocarriers for effective treatment because of their multifunctional and distinctive properties, including a greater surface area, higher volume ratio, increased elasticity and improved stiffness and resistance to traction, favorable biodegradability, high permeability, and sufficient oxygen supply, which help maintain the moisture content of the skin and improve the bioavailability of the drugs. Similar to the extracellular matrix, nanofibers have a regeneration capacity, promoting cell growth, adhesion, and proliferation, and also have a more controlled release pattern compared with that of other conventional therapies at the psoriatic site. To ensure improved drug targeting and better antipsoriatic efficacy, this study formulated and evaluated a tazarotene (TZT)-calcipotriol (CPT)-loaded nanofiber and carbopol-based hydrogel film. The nanofiber was prepared using electrospinning with a polyvinyl alcohol/polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVA/PVP) K-90 polymeric blend that was later incorporated into a carbopol base to form hydrogel films. The prepared nanofibers were biochemically evaluated and in vitro and in vivo characterized. The mean diameters of the optimized formulation, i.e., TZT-loaded polyvinyl alcohol/polyvinylpyrrolidone nanofiber (TZT-PVA/PVP-NF) and TZT-CPT-loaded polyvinyl alcohol/polyvinylpyrrolidone nanofiber (TZT-CPT-PVA/PVP-NF) were 244.67 ± 58.11 and 252.31 ± 35.50 nm, respectively, as determined by scanning electron microscopy, and their tensile strength ranged from 14.02 ± 0.54 to 22.50 ± 0.03 MPa. X-ray diffraction revealed an increase in the amorphous nature of the nanofibers. The biodegradability studies of prepared nanofiber formulations, irrespective of their composition, showed that these completely biodegraded within 2 weeks of their application. The TZT-CPT-PVA/PVP-NF nanofibers exhibited 95.68% ± 0.03% drug release at the end of 72 h, indicating a controlled release pattern and following Higuchi release kinetics as a best-fit model. MTT assay, antioxidant and lipid profile tests, splenomegaly assessment, and weight fluctuation were all performed in the in vitro as well as in vivo studies. We found that the TZT-CPT-PVA/PVP-NF-based hydrogel film has high potential for antipsoriatic activity in imiquimod-induced Wistar rats in comparison with that of TT-PVA/PVP-NF nanofibers.

Adverse events following first and second dose COVID-19 vaccination in England, October 2020 to September 2021: a national vaccine surveillance platform self-controlled case series study.

BackgroundPost-authorisation vaccine safety surveillance is well established for reporting common adverse events of interest (AEIs) following influenza vaccines, but not for COVID-19 vaccines.AimTo estimate the incidence of AEIs presenting to primary care following COVID-19 vaccination in England, and report safety profile differences between vaccine brands.MethodsWe used a self-controlled case series design to estimate relative incidence (RI) of AEIs reported to the national sentinel network, the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Clinical Informatics Digital Hub. We compared AEIs (overall and by clinical category) 7 days pre- and post-vaccination to background levels between 1 October 2020 and 12 September 2021.ResultsWithin 7,952,861 records, 781,200 individuals (9.82%) presented to general practice with 1,482,273 AEIs, 4.85% within 7 days post-vaccination. Overall, medically attended AEIs decreased post-vaccination against background levels. There was a 3-7% decrease in incidence within 7 days after both doses of Comirnaty (RI: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.91-0.94 and RI: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.94-0.98, respectively) and Vaxzevria (RI: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.98). A 20% increase was observed after one dose of Spikevax (RI: 1.20; 95% CI: 1.00-1.44). Fewer AEIs were reported as age increased. Types of AEIs, e.g. increased neurological and psychiatric conditions, varied between brands following two doses of Comirnaty (RI: 1.41; 95% CI: 1.28-1.56) and Vaxzevria (RI: 1.07; 95% CI: 0.97-1.78).ConclusionCOVID-19 vaccines are associated with a small decrease in medically attended AEI incidence. Sentinel networks could routinely report common AEI rates, contributing to reporting vaccine safety.

Replication study of plasma proteins relating to Alzheimer's pathology.

INTRODUCTION: This study sought to discover and replicate plasma proteomic biomarkers relating to Alzheimer's disease (AD) including both the "ATN" (amyloid/tau/neurodegeneration) diagnostic framework and clinical diagnosis. METHODS: Plasma proteins from 972 subjects (372 controls, 409 mild cognitive impairment [MCI], and 191 AD) were measured using both SOMAscan and targeted assays, including 4001 and 25 proteins, respectively. RESULTS: Protein co-expression network analysis of SOMAscan data revealed the relation between proteins and "N" varied across different neurodegeneration markers, indicating that the ATN variants are not interchangeable. Using hub proteins, age, and apolipoprotein E ε4 genotype discriminated AD from controls with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.81 and MCI convertors from non-convertors with an AUC of 0.74. Targeted assays replicated the relation of four proteins with the ATN framework and clinical diagnosis. DISCUSSION: Our study suggests that blood proteins can predict the presence of AD pathology as measured in the ATN framework as well as clinical diagnosis.

Twin Attributes of Tyrosyl-tRNA Synthetase of Leishmania donovani: A HOUSEKEEPING PROTEIN TRANSLATION ENZYME AND A MIMIC OF HOST CHEMOKINE.

Aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases (aaRSs) are housekeeping enzymes essential for protein synthesis. Apart from their parent aminoacylation activity, several aaRSs perform non-canonical functions in diverse biological processes. The present study explores the twin attributes of Leishmania tyrosyl-tRNA synthetase (LdTyrRS) namely, aminoacylation, and as a mimic of host CXC chemokine. Leishmania donovani is a protozoan parasite. Its genome encodes a single copy of tyrosyl-tRNA synthetase. We first tested the canonical aminoacylation role of LdTyrRS. The recombinant protein was expressed, and its kinetic parameters were determined by aminoacylation assay. To study the physiological role of LdTyrRS in Leishmania, gene deletion mutations were attempted via targeted gene replacement. The heterozygous mutants showed slower growth kinetics and exhibited attenuated virulence. LdTyrRS appears to be an essential gene as the chromosomal null mutants did not survive. Our data also highlights the non-canonical function of L. donovani tyrosyl-tRNA synthetase. We show that LdTyrRS protein is present in the cytoplasm and exits from the parasite cytoplasm into the extracellular medium. The released LdTyrRS functions as a neutrophil chemoattractant. We further show that LdTyrRS specifically binds to host macrophages with its ELR (Glu-Leu-Arg) peptide motif. The ELR-CXCR2 receptor interaction mediates this binding. This interaction triggers enhanced secretion of the proinflammatory cytokines TNF-α and IL-6 by host macrophages. Our data indicates a possible immunomodulating role of LdTyrRS in Leishmania infection. This study provides a platform to explore LdTyrRS as a potential target for drug development.

Deletion of Vitamin C biosynthesis enzyme, Arabino-1, 4-lactone oxidase in Leishmania donovani results in increased pro-inflammatory responses from host immune cells.

Recently, we reported molecular characterization, localization and functional importance of Arabino-1, 4-lactone oxidase (ALO) enzyme from Leishmania donovani that catalyses the last step in ascorbate biosynthesis pathway. Vitamin C (l-ascorbic acid) is implicated in several crucial physiological processes. To elucidate the biological role of d-arabinono-γ-lactone oxidase in Leishmania, we made L. donovani ALO null mutant (ΔALO) by double targeted gene replacement. This mutant lacked ALO activity, showed transient growth defect and reduced ascorbate levels. ΔALO grown in ascorbate depleted media further enhanced growth defect with no detectable levels of ascorbate, implying that parasites have the ability to scavenge ascorbate. ΔALO mutants showed reduced survival in mouse macrophages and are impaired in their infectivity in vivo. Furthermore, the ΔALO mutant induced production of pro-inflammatory cytokines gamma interferon (IFN-gamma), interleukin-12 (IL-12) and tumour necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) by infected mouse macrophages. These mutants were susceptible to oxidative stresses in vitro as revealed by the decreased survival inside macrophages by increased production of reactive oxygen or nitrogen species. Complementation of the ΔALO mutants restored the phenotypic effects in these parasites. Our description of ALO null mutant parasite that triggers pro-inflammatory host responses provides a novel platform for targeting ALO in anti-parasitic strategies.

Distinct and separable roles for endogenous CRY1 and CRY2 within the circadian molecular clockwork of the suprachiasmatic nucleus, as revealed by the Fbxl3(Afh) mutation.

The circadian clock of the suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN) drives daily rhythms of behavior. Cryptochromes (CRYs) are powerful transcriptional repressors within the molecular negative feedback loops at the heart of the SCN clockwork, where they periodically suppress their own expression and that of clock-controlled genes. To determine the differential contributions of CRY1 and CRY2 within circadian timing in vivo, we exploited the N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea-induced afterhours mutant Fbxl3(Afh) to stabilize endogenous CRY. Importantly, this was conducted in CRY2- and CRY1-deficient mice to test each CRY in isolation. In both CRY-deficient backgrounds, circadian rhythms of wheel-running and SCN bioluminescence showed increased period length with increased Fbxl3(Afh) dosage. Although both CRY proteins slowed the clock, CRY1 was significantly more potent than CRY2, and in SCN slices, CRY1 but not CRY2 prolonged the interval of transcriptional suppression. Selective CRY-stabilization demonstrated that both CRYs are endogenous transcriptional repressors of clock-controlled genes, but again CRY1 was preeminent. Finally, although Cry1(-/-);Cry2(-/-) mice were behaviorally arrhythmic, their SCN expressed short period (~18 h) rhythms with variable stability. Fbxl3(Afh/Afh) had no effect on these CRY-independent rhythms, confirming its circadian action is mediated exclusively via CRYs. Thus, stabilization of both CRY1 and CRY2 are necessary and sufficient to explain circadian period lengthening by Fbxl3(Afh/Afh). Both CRY proteins dose-dependently lengthen the intrinsic, high-frequency SCN rhythm, and CRY2 also attenuates the more potent period-lengthening effects of CRY1. Incorporation of CRY-mediated transcriptional feedback thus confers stability to intrinsic SCN oscillations, establishing periods between 18 and 29 h, as determined by selective contributions of CRY1 and CRY2.

The multifaceted role of Wnt canonical signalling in neurogenesis, neuroinflammation, and hyperexcitability in mesial temporal lobe epilepsy.

Epilepsy is a neurological disorder characterised by unprovoked, repetitive seizures caused by abnormal neuronal firing. The Wnt/ß-Catenin signalling pathway is involved in seizure-induced neurogenesis, aberrant neurogenesis, neuroinflammation, and hyperexcitability associated with epileptic disorder. Wnt/ß-Catenin signalling is crucial for early brain development processes including neuronal patterning, synapse formation, and N-methyl-d-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) regulation. Disruption of molecular networks such as Wnt/ß-catenin signalling in epilepsy could offer encouraging anti-epileptogenic targets. So, with a better understanding of the canonical Wnt/-Catenin pathway, we highlight in this review the important elements of Wnt/-Catenin signalling specifically in Mesial Temporal Lobe Epilepsy (MTLE) for potential therapeutic targets.

Qualitative evaluation of a molecular point-of-care testing study for influenza in UK primary care.

BACKGROUND: Influenza contributes to the surge in winter infections and the consequent winter pressures on the health service. Molecular point-of-care testing(POCT) for influenza might improve patient management by providing rapid and accurate clinical diagnosis to inform the timely initiation of antiviral therapy and reduce unnecessary admissions and antibiotics use. AIM: To explore factors that influence the adoption or non-adoption of POCT in English general practices and provide insights to enable its integration into routine practice workflows. DESIGN & SETTING: A qualitative implementation evaluation was conducted in ten general practices within the English national sentinel network (Oxford-RCGP Research and Surveillance Centre), from April to July 2023. METHOD: Using the nonadoption, abandonment, scale-up, spread, and sustainability framework, data collection and analysis were conducted across ten practices. We made ethnographic observations of the POCT workflow and surveyed the practice staff for their perspectives on POCT implementation. Data were analysed using a mix of descriptive statistics, graphical modelling techniques and framework approach. RESULTS: Ethnographic observations identified two modes of POCT integration into practice workflow: 1) clinician POCT workflow - typically involving batch testing due to time constraints, 2) research nurse/healthcare assistant POCT workflow - characterised by immediate testing of individual patients. Survey indicated that most primary care staff considered the POCT training offered was sufficient, and these practices were ready for change and had the capacity and resources to integrate POCT in workflows. CONCLUSION: General practices should demonstrate flexibility in the workflow and workforce they deploy to integrate POCT into routine clinical workflow.

A Profile of Influenza Vaccine Coverage for 2019-2020: Database Study of the English Primary Care Sentinel Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Innovation in seasonal influenza vaccine development has resulted in a wider range of formulations becoming available. Understanding vaccine coverage across populations including the timing of administration is important when evaluating vaccine benefits and risks. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to report the representativeness, uptake of influenza vaccines, different formulations of influenza vaccines, and timing of administration within the English Primary Care Sentinel Cohort (PCSC). METHODS: We used the PCSC of the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre. We included patients of all ages registered with PCSC member general practices, reporting influenza vaccine coverage between September 1, 2019, and January 29, 2020. We identified influenza vaccination recipients and characterized them by age, clinical risk groups, and vaccine type. We reported the date of influenza vaccination within the PCSC by International Standard Organization (ISO) week. The representativeness of the PCSC population was compared with population data provided by the Office for National Statistics. PCSC influenza vaccine coverage was compared with published UK Health Security Agency's national data. We used paired t tests to compare populations, reported with 95% CI. RESULTS: The PCSC comprised 7,010,627 people from 693 general practices. The study population included a greater proportion of people aged 18-49 years (2,982,390/7,010,627, 42.5%; 95% CI 42.5%-42.6%) compared with the Office for National Statistics 2019 midyear population estimates (23,219,730/56,286,961, 41.3%; 95% CI 4.12%-41.3%; P<.001). People who are more deprived were underrepresented and those in the least deprived quintile were overrepresented. Within the study population, 24.7% (1,731,062/7,010,627; 95% CI 24.7%-24.7%) of people of all ages received an influenza vaccine compared with 24.2% (14,468,665/59,764,928; 95% CI 24.2%-24.2%; P<.001) in national data. The highest coverage was in people aged ≥65 years (913,695/1,264,700, 72.3%; 95% CI 72.2%-72.3%). The proportion of people in risk groups who received an influenza vaccine was also higher; for example, 69.8% (284,280/407,228; 95% CI 69.7%-70%) of people with diabetes in the PCSC received an influenza vaccine compared with 61.2% (983,727/1,607,996; 95% CI 61.1%-61.3%; P<.001) in national data. In the PCSC, vaccine type and brand information were available for 71.8% (358,365/498,923; 95% CI 71.7%-72%) of people aged 16-64 years and 81.9% (748,312/913,695; 95% CI 81.8%-82%) of people aged ≥65 years, compared with 23.6% (696,880/2,900,000) and 17.8% (1,385,888/7,700,000), respectively, of the same age groups in national data. Vaccination commenced during ISO week 35, continued until ISO week 3, and peaked during ISO week 41. The in-week peak in vaccination administration was on Saturdays. CONCLUSIONS: The PCSC's sociodemographic profile was similar to the national population and captured more data about risk groups, vaccine brands, and batches. This may reflect higher data quality. Its capabilities included reporting precise dates of administration. The PCSC is suitable for undertaking studies of influenza vaccine coverage.

COVID-19 and influenza vaccine uptake among pregnant women in national cohorts of England and Wales.

Vaccines against COVID-19 and influenza can reduce the adverse outcomes caused by infections during pregnancy, but vaccine uptake among pregnant women has been suboptimal. We examined the COVID-19 and influenza vaccine uptake and disparities in pregnant women during the COVID-19 pandemic to inform vaccination interventions. We used data from the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre database in England and the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank in Wales. The uptake of at least one dose of vaccine was 40.2% for COVID-19 and 41.8% for influenza among eligible pregnant women. We observed disparities in COVID-19 and influenza vaccine uptake, with socioeconomically deprived and ethnic minority groups showing lower vaccination rates. The suboptimal uptake of COVID-19 and influenza vaccines, especially in those from socioeconomically deprived backgrounds and Black, mixed or other ethnic groups, underscores the necessity for interventions to reduce vaccine hesitancy and enhance acceptance in pregnant women.

Surface entrenched ß-sitosterol niosomes for enhanced cardioprotective activity against isoproterenol induced cardiotoxicity in rats.

Cardiotoxicity (CT) is a severe condition that negatively impacts heart function. ß-sitosterol (BS) is a group of phytosterols and known for various pharmacological benefits, such as managing diabetes, cardiac protection, and neuroprotection. This study aims to develop niosomes (NS) containing BS, utilizing cholesterol as the lipid and Tween 80 as the stabilizer. The research focuses on designing and evaluating both conventional BS-NS and hyaluronic acid (HA) modified NS (BS-HA-NS) to enhance the specificity and efficacy of BS within cardiac tissue. The resulting niosomal formulation was spherical, with a size of about 158.51 ± 0.57 nm, an entrapment efficiency of 93.56 ± 1.48 %, and a drug loading of 8.07 ± 1.62 %. To evaluate cytotoxicity on H9c2 heart cells, the MTT assay was used. The cellular uptake of BS-NS and BS-HA-NS was confirmed by confocal microscopy on H9c2 cardiac cells. Administering BS-NS and BS-HA-NS intravenously at a dose of 10 mg/kg showed the ability to significantly decrease the levels of cardiac troponin-I (cTn-I), creatine kinase-MB (CK-MB), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and lipid peroxidation (MDA). Tissue histopathology indicated a substantial potential for repairing cardiac tissue after treatment with BS-NS and BS-HA-NS and strong cardioprotection against ISO induced myocardial tissue damages. Thus, enhancing BS's therapeutic effectiveness through niosome surface modification holds promise for mitigating cardiac damage resulting from CT.

Phenotype execution and modeling architecture to support disease surveillance and real-world evidence studies: English sentinel network evaluation.

Objective: To evaluate Phenotype Execution and Modelling Architecture (PhEMA), to express sharable phenotypes using Clinical Quality Language (CQL) and intensional Systematised Nomenclature of Medicine (SNOMED) Clinical Terms (CT) Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) valuesets, for exemplar chronic disease, sociodemographic risk factor, and surveillance phenotypes. Method: We curated 3 phenotypes: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), excessive alcohol use, and incident influenza-like illness (ILI) using CQL to define clinical and administrative logic. We defined our phenotypes with valuesets, using SNOMED's hierarchy and expression constraint language, and CQL, combining valuesets and adding temporal elements where needed. We compared the count of cases found using PhEMA with our existing approach using convenience datasets. We assessed our new approach against published desiderata for phenotypes. Results: The T2DM phenotype could be defined as 2 intensionally defined SNOMED valuesets and a CQL script. It increased the prevalence from 7.2% to 7.3%. Excess alcohol phenotype was defined by valuesets that added qualitative clinical terms to the quantitative conceptual definitions we currently use; this change increased prevalence by 58%, from 1.2% to 1.9%. We created an ILI valueset with SNOMED concepts, adding a temporal element using CQL to differentiate new episodes. This increased the weekly incidence in our convenience sample (weeks 26-38) from 0.95 cases to 1.11 cases per 100 000 people. Conclusions: Phenotypes for surveillance and research can be described fully and comprehensibly using CQL and intensional FHIR valuesets. Our use case phenotypes identified a greater number of cases, whilst anticipated from excessive alcohol this was not for our other variable. This may have been due to our use of SNOMED CT hierarchy. Our new process fulfilled a greater number of phenotype desiderata than the one that we had used previously, mostly in the modeling domain. More work is needed to implement that sharing and warehousing domains.

Uptake of COVID-19 vaccinations amongst 3,433,483 children and young people: meta-analysis of UK prospective cohorts.

SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and young people (CYP) can lead to life-threatening COVID-19, transmission within households and schools, and the development of long COVID. Using linked health and administrative data, we investigated vaccine uptake among 3,433,483 CYP aged 5-17 years across all UK nations between 4th August 2021 and 31st May 2022. We constructed national cohorts and undertook multi-state modelling and meta-analysis to identify associations between demographic variables and vaccine uptake. We found that uptake of the first COVID-19 vaccine among CYP was low across all four nations compared to other age groups and diminished with subsequent doses. Age and vaccination status of adults living in the same household were identified as important risk factors associated with vaccine uptake in CYP. For example, 5-11 year-olds were less likely to receive their first vaccine compared to 16-17 year-olds (adjusted Hazard Ratio [aHR]: 0.10 (95%CI: 0.06-0.19)), and CYP in unvaccinated households were less likely to receive their first vaccine compared to CYP in partially vaccinated households (aHR: 0.19, 95%CI 0.13-0.29).

Risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes after autumn 2022 COVID-19 booster vaccinations: a pooled analysis of national prospective cohort studies involving 7.4 million adults in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales.

Background: UK COVID-19 vaccination policy has evolved to offering COVID-19 booster doses to individuals at increased risk of severe Illness from COVID-19. Building on our analyses of vaccine effectiveness of first, second and initial booster doses, we aimed to identify individuals at increased risk of severe outcomes (i.e., COVID-19 related hospitalisation or death) post the autumn 2022 booster dose. Methods: We undertook a national population-based cohort analysis across all four UK nations through linked primary care, vaccination, hospitalisation and mortality data. We included individuals who received autumn 2022 booster doses of BNT162b2 (Comirnaty) or mRNA-1273 (Spikevax) during the period September 1, 2022 to December 31, 2022 to investigate the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between demographic and clinical factors and severe COVID-19 outcomes after the autumn booster dose. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), deprivation, urban/rural areas and comorbidities. Stratified analyses were conducted by vaccine type. We then conducted a fixed-effect meta-analysis to combine results across the four UK nations. Findings: Between September 1, 2022 and December 31, 2022, 7,451,890 individuals ≥18 years received an autumn booster dose. 3500 had severe COVID-19 outcomes (2.9 events per 1000 person-years). Being male (male vs female, aHR 1.41 (1.32-1.51)), older adults (≥80 years vs 18-49 years; 10.43 (8.06-13.50)), underweight (BMI <18.5 vs BMI 25.0-29.9; 2.94 (2.51-3.44)), those with comorbidities (≥5 comorbidities vs none; 9.45 (8.15-10.96)) had a higher risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation or death after the autumn booster dose. Those with a larger household size (≥11 people within household vs 2 people; 1.56 (1.23-1.98)) and from more deprived areas (most deprived vs least deprived quintile; 1.35 (1.21-1.51)) had modestly higher risks. We also observed at least a two-fold increase in risk for those with various chronic neurological conditions, including Down's syndrome, immunodeficiency, chronic kidney disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, or cardiovascular disease. Interpretation: Males, older individuals, underweight individuals, those with an increasing number of comorbidities, from a larger household or more deprived areas, and those with specific underlying health conditions remained at increased risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation and death after the autumn 2022 vaccine booster dose. There is now a need to focus on these risk groups for investigating immunogenicity and efficacy of further booster doses or therapeutics. Funding: National Core Studies-Immunity, UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council and Economic and Social Research Council), Health Data Research UK, the Scottish Government, and the University of Edinburgh.

AZD1222 effectiveness against severe COVID-19 in individuals with comorbidity or frailty: The RAVEN cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Despite being prioritized during initial COVID-19 vaccine rollout, vulnerable individuals at high risk of severe COVID-19 (hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, or death) remain underrepresented in vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies. The RAVEN cohort study (NCT05047822) assessed AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCov-19) two-dose primary series VE in vulnerable populations. METHODS: Using the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Clinical Informatics Digital Hub, linked to secondary care, death registration, and COVID-19 datasets in England, COVID-19 outcomes in 2021 were compared in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals matched on age, sex, region, and multimorbidity. RESULTS: Over 4.5 million AZD1222 recipients were matched (mean follow-up ∼5 months); 68% were ≥50 years, 57% had high multimorbidity. Overall, high VE against severe COVID-19 was demonstrated, with lower VE observed in vulnerable populations. VE against hospitalization was higher in the lowest multimorbidity quartile (91.1%; 95% CI: 90.1, 92.0) than the highest quartile (80.4%; 79.7, 81.1), and among individuals ≥65 years, higher in the 'fit' (86.2%; 84.5, 87.6) than the frailest (71.8%; 69.3, 74.2). VE against hospitalization was lowest in immunosuppressed individuals (64.6%; 60.7, 68.1). CONCLUSIONS: Based on integrated and comprehensive UK health data, overall population-level VE with AZD1222 was high. VEs were notably lower in vulnerable groups, particularly the immunosuppressed.

End of 2022/23 Season Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Primary Care in Great Britain.

BACKGROUND: The 2022/23 influenza season in the United Kingdom saw the return of influenza to prepandemic levels following two seasons with low influenza activity. The early season was dominated by A(H3N2), with cocirculation of A(H1N1), reaching a peak late December 2022, while influenza B circulated at low levels during the latter part of the season. From September to March 2022/23, influenza vaccines were offered, free of charge, to all aged 2-13 (and 14-15 in Scotland and Wales), adults up to 49 years of age with clinical risk conditions and adults aged 50 and above across the mainland United Kingdom. METHODS: End-of-season adjusted vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates against sentinel primary-care attendance for influenza-like illness, where influenza infection was laboratory confirmed, were calculated using the test negative design, adjusting for potential confounders. METHODS: Results In the mainland United Kingdom, end-of-season VE against all laboratory-confirmed influenza for all those > 65 years of age, most of whom received adjuvanted quadrivalent vaccines, was 30% (95% CI: -6% to 54%). VE for those aged 18-64, who largely received cell-based vaccines, was 47% (95% CI: 37%-56%). Overall VE for 2-17 year olds, predominantly receiving live attenuated vaccines, was 66% (95% CI: 53%-76%). CONCLUSION: The paper provides evidence of moderate influenza VE in 2022/23.

Interim 2023/2024 Season Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Primary and Secondary Care in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: We report 2023/2024 season interim influenza vaccine effectiveness for three studies, namely, primary care in Great Britain, hospital settings in Scotland and hospital settings in England. METHODS: A test negative design was used to estimate vaccine effectiveness. RESULTS: Estimated vaccine effectiveness against all influenzas ranged from 63% (95% confidence interval 46 to 75%) to 65% (41 to 79%) among children aged 2-17, from 36% (20 to 49%) to 55% (43 to 65%) among adults 18-64 and from 40% (29 to 50%) to 55% (32 to 70%) among adults aged 65 and over. CONCLUSIONS: During a period of co-circulation of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) in the United Kingdom, evidence for effectiveness of the influenza vaccine in both children and adults was found.

Postpandemic Sentinel Surveillance of Respiratory Diseases in the Context of the World Health Organization Mosaic Framework: Protocol for a Development and Evaluation Study Involving the English Primary Care Network 2023-2024.

BACKGROUND: Prepandemic sentinel surveillance focused on improved management of winter pressures, with influenza-like illness (ILI) being the key clinical indicator. The World Health Organization (WHO) global standards for influenza surveillance include monitoring acute respiratory infection (ARI) and ILI. The WHO's mosaic framework recommends that the surveillance strategies of countries include the virological monitoring of respiratory viruses with pandemic potential such as influenza. The Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioner Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) in collaboration with the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has provided sentinel surveillance since 1967, including virology since 1993. OBJECTIVE: We aim to describe the RSC's plans for sentinel surveillance in the 2023-2024 season and evaluate these plans against the WHO mosaic framework. METHODS: Our approach, which includes patient and public involvement, contributes to surveillance objectives across all 3 domains of the mosaic framework. We will generate an ARI phenotype to enable reporting of this indicator in addition to ILI. These data will support UKHSA's sentinel surveillance, including vaccine effectiveness and burden of disease studies. The panel of virology tests analyzed in UKHSA's reference laboratory will remain unchanged, with additional plans for point-of-care testing, pneumococcus testing, and asymptomatic screening. Our sampling framework for serological surveillance will provide greater representativeness and more samples from younger people. We will create a biomedical resource that enables linkage between clinical data held in the RSC and virology data, including sequencing data, held by the UKHSA. We describe the governance framework for the RSC. RESULTS: We are co-designing our communication about data sharing and sampling, contextualized by the mosaic framework, with national and general practice patient and public involvement groups. We present our ARI digital phenotype and the key data RSC network members are requested to include in computerized medical records. We will share data with the UKHSA to report vaccine effectiveness for COVID-19 and influenza, assess the disease burden of respiratory syncytial virus, and perform syndromic surveillance. Virological surveillance will include COVID-19, influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, and other common respiratory viruses. We plan to pilot point-of-care testing for group A streptococcus, urine tests for pneumococcus, and asymptomatic testing. We will integrate test requests and results with the laboratory-computerized medical record system. A biomedical resource will enable research linking clinical data to virology data. The legal basis for the RSC's pseudonymized data extract is The Health Service (Control of Patient Information) Regulations 2002, and all nonsurveillance uses require research ethics approval. CONCLUSIONS: The RSC extended its surveillance activities to meet more but not all of the mosaic framework's objectives. We have introduced an ARI indicator. We seek to expand our surveillance scope and could do more around transmissibility and the benefits and risks of nonvaccine therapies.