The American Heart Association 2030 Impact Goal: A Presidential Advisory From the American Heart Association.

Each decade, the American Heart Association (AHA) develops an Impact Goal to guide its overall strategic direction and investments in its research, quality improvement, advocacy, and public health programs. Guided by the AHA's new Mission Statement, to be a relentless force for a world of longer, healthier lives, the 2030 Impact Goal is anchored in an understanding that to achieve cardiovascular health for all, the AHA must include a broader vision of health and well-being and emphasize health equity. In the next decade, by 2030, the AHA will strive to equitably increase healthy life expectancy beyond current projections, with global and local collaborators, from 66 years of age to at least 68 years of age across the United States and from 64 years of age to at least 67 years of age worldwide. The AHA commits to developing additional targets for equity and well-being to accompany this overarching Impact Goal. To attain the 2030 Impact Goal, we recommend a thoughtful evaluation of interventions available to the public, patients, providers, healthcare delivery systems, communities, policy makers, and legislators. This presidential advisory summarizes the task force's main considerations in determining the 2030 Impact Goal and the metrics to monitor progress. It describes the aspiration that these goals will be achieved by working with a diverse community of volunteers, patients, scientists, healthcare professionals, and partner organizations needed to ensure success.

Which Priorities for Health and Well-Being Stand Out After Accounting for Tangled Threats and Costs? Simulating Potential Intervention Portfolios in Large Urban Counties.

Policy Points Interventions in a regional system with intertwined threats and costs should address those threats that have the strongest, quickest, and most pervasive cross-impacts. Instead of focusing on an individual county's apparent shortcomings, a regional intervention portfolio can yield greater results when it is designed to counter those systemic threats, especially poverty and inadequate social support, that most undermine health and well-being virtually everywhere. Likewise, efforts to reduce smoking, addiction, and violent crime and to improve routine care, health insurance, and youth education are important for most counties to unlock both short- and long-term potential. CONTEXT: Counties across the United States must contend with multiple, intertwined threats and costs that defy simple solutions. Decision makers face the necessary but difficult task of prioritizing those interventions with the greatest potential to produce equitable health and well-being. METHODS: Using County Health Rankings data for a predefined peer group of 39 urban US counties, we performed statistical regressions to identify 37 cross-impacts among 15 threats to health and well-being. Adding appropriate time delays, we then developed a dynamic model of these cross-impacts and simulated each of the counties over 20 years to assess the likely impact of 12 potential interventions-individually and in a combined portfolio-for three outcomes: (1) years of potential life lost, (2) fraction of adults in fair or poor health, and (3) total spending on urgent services. FINDINGS: The combined portfolio yielded improvements by year 20 that are considerably greater than those at year 5, indicating that the time delays have a major effect. Despite the wide variation in threat levels across counties, the list of top-ranked interventions is strikingly similar. Poverty reduction and social support were the most highly ranked interventions, even in the shorter term, for all outcomes in all counties. Interventions affecting smoking, addiction, routine care, health insurance, violent crime, and youth education also were important contributors to some outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: To safeguard health and well-being in a system dominated by tangled threats and costs, the most important priorities for a county cannot be simply inferred from a profile of its relative strengths and weaknesses. Two interventions stood out as the top priorities for almost all the counties in this study, and six others also were important contributors. Interventions directed toward these priority areas are likely to yield the greatest impact, irrespective of the county's specifics. A significant concentration of resources in a regional portfolio therefore ought to go to these strongest contributors for equitable health and well-being.

Out-of-School-Time Academic Programs to Improve School Achievement: A Community Guide Health Equity Systematic Review.

CONTEXT: Low-income and minority status in the United States are associated with poor educational outcomes, which, in turn, reduce the long-term health benefits of education. OBJECTIVE: This systematic review assessed the extent to which out-of-school-time academic (OSTA) programs for at-risk students, most of whom are from low-income and racial/ethnic minority families, can improve academic achievement. Because most OSTA programs serve low-income and ethnic/racial minority students, programs may improve health equity. DESIGN: Methods of the Guide to Community Preventive Services were used. An existing systematic review assessing the effects of OSTA programs on academic outcomes (Lauer et al 2006; search period 1985-2003) was supplemented with a Community Guide update (search period 2003-2011). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Standardized mean difference. RESULTS: Thirty-two studies from the existing review and 25 studies from the update were combined and stratified by program focus (ie, reading-focused, math-focused, general academic programs, and programs with minimal academic focus). Focused programs were more effective than general or minimal academic programs. Reading-focused programs were effective only for students in grades K-3. There was insufficient evidence to determine effectiveness on behavioral outcomes and longer-term academic outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: OSTA programs, particularly focused programs, are effective in increasing academic achievement for at-risk students. Ongoing school and social environments that support learning and development may be essential to ensure the longer-term benefits of OSTA programs.

From model to action: using a system dynamics model of chronic disease risks to align community action.

Health planners in Austin, Texas, are using a System Dynamics Model of Cardiovascular Disease Risks (SD model) to align prevention efforts and maximize the effect of limited resources. The SD model was developed using available evidence of disease prevalence, risk factors, local contextual factors, resulting health conditions, and their impact on population health. Given an interest in understanding opportunities for upstream health protection, the SD model focused on the portion of the population that has never had a cardiovascular event. Leaders in Austin used this interactive simulation model as a catalyst for convening diverse stakeholders in thinking about their strategic directions and policy priorities. Health officials shared insights from the model with a range of organizations in an effort to align actions and leverage assets in the community to promote healthier conditions for all. This article summarizes the results from several simulated intervention scenarios focusing specifically on conditions in East Travis County, an area marked by higher prevalence of adverse living conditions and related chronic diseases. The article also describes the formation of a new Chronic Disease Prevention Coalition in Austin, along with shifts in its members' perceived priorities for intervention both before and after interactions with the SD model.

Analyzing national health reform strategies with a dynamic simulation model.

Proposals to improve the US health system are commonly supported by models that have only a few variables and overlook certain processes that may delay, dilute, or defeat intervention effects. We use an evidence-based dynamic simulation model with a broad national scope to analyze 5 policy proposals. Our results suggest that expanding insurance coverage and improving health care quality would likely improve health status but would also raise costs and worsen health inequity, whereas a strategy that also strengthens primary care capacity and emphasizes health protection would improve health status, reduce inequities, and lower costs. A software interface allows diverse stakeholders to interact with the model through a policy simulation game called HealthBound.

Simulating and evaluating local interventions to improve cardiovascular health.

Numerous local interventions for cardiovascular disease are available, but resources to deliver them are limited. Identifying the most effective interventions is challenging because cardiovascular risks develop through causal pathways and gradual accumulations that defy simple calculation. We created a simulation model for evaluating multiple approaches to preventing and managing cardiovascular risks. The model incorporates data from many sources to represent all US adults who have never had a cardiovascular event. It simulates trajectories for the leading direct and indirect risk factors from 1990 to 2040 and evaluates 19 interventions. The main outcomes are first-time cardiovascular events and consequent deaths, as well as total consequence costs, which combine medical expenditures and productivity costs associated with cardiovascular events and risk factors. We used sensitivity analyses to examine the significance of uncertain parameters. A base case scenario shows that population turnover and aging strongly influence the future trajectories of several risk factors. At least 15 of 19 interventions are potentially cost saving and could reduce deaths from first cardiovascular events by approximately 20% and total consequence costs by 26%. Some interventions act quickly to reduce deaths, while others more gradually reduce costs related to risk factors. Although the model is still evolving, the simulated experiments reported here can inform policy and spending decisions.

A Balanced Investment Portfolio For Equitable Health And Well-Being Is An Imperative, And Within Reach.

Health investments, defined as formal expenditures to either produce or care for health, in the US are extremely inefficient and have yet to unlock the country's full potential for equitable health and well-being. A major reason for such poor performance is that the US health investment portfolio is out of balance, with too much spent on certain aspects of health care and not enough spent to ensure social, economic, and environmental conditions that are vital to maintaining health and well-being. This commentary summarizes the evidence for this assertion, along with the opportunities and challenges involved in rebalancing investments in ways that would improve overall population health, reduce health gaps, and help build a culture of health for all Americans.

Multisector Partnerships Need Further Development To Fulfill Aspirations For Transforming Regional Health And Well-Being.

Regional multisector partnerships involving stakeholders in areas such as public health, health care, education, housing, and others are growing in number. These partnerships are pursuing increasingly comprehensive strategies to transform health and well-being in their communities. Most analyses of these groups rely on self-reports and case studies. These have led many in the field to form optimistic expectations about how well prepared the groups are to lead transformative efforts-that is, how "mature" they are. Few studies have systematically combined data from multiple perspectives to assess partnership characteristics against specific developmental criteria. In 2015-16 we gathered 145 nominations of regions (places) and partnerships with reputations for being relatively mature. Using a three-step assessment procedure, informed by eighty-five interviews with close observers and ten site visits, we found that most of these groups lacked certain characteristics that seem necessary to transform regional health systems. Even the more mature groups were not as well poised for transformation as their reputations implied. Our findings can help correct misperceptions and clarify ways to best support further partnership development.

Charting plausible futures for diabetes prevalence in the United States: a role for system dynamics simulation modeling.

INTRODUCTION: Healthy People 2010 (HP 2010) objectives call for a 38% reduction in the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes mellitus, type 1 and type 2, by the year 2010. The process for setting this objective, however, did not focus on the achievability or the compatibility of this objective with other national public health objectives. We used a dynamic simulation model to explore plausible trajectories for diabetes prevalence in the wake of rising levels of obesity in the U.S. population. The model helps to interpret historic trends in diabetes prevalence in the United States and to anticipate plausible future trends through 2010. METHODS: We conducted simulation experiments using a computer model of diabetes population dynamics to 1) track the rates at which people develop diabetes, are diagnosed with the disease, and die, and 2) assess the effects of various preventive-care interventions. System dynamics modeling methodology based on data from multiple sources guided the analyses. RESULTS: With the number of new cases of diabetes being much greater than the number of deaths among those with the disease, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes in the United States is likely to continue to increase. Even a 29% reduction in the number of new cases (the HP 2010 objective) would only slow the growth, not reverse it. Increased diabetes detection rates or decreased mortality rates--also HP 2010 objectives--would further increase diagnosed prevalence. CONCLUSION: The HP 2010 objective for reducing diabetes prevalence is unattainable given the historical processes that are affecting incidence, diagnosis, and mortality, and even a zero-growth future is unlikely. System dynamics modeling shows why interventions to protect against chronic diseases have only gradual effects on their diagnosed prevalence.

Combined Regional Investments Could Substantially Enhance Health System Performance And Be Financially Affordable.

Leaders across the United States face a difficult challenge choosing among possible approaches to transform health system performance in their regions. The ReThink Health Dynamics Model simulates how alternative scenarios could unfold through 2040. This article compares the likely consequences if four interventions were enacted in layered combinations in a prototypical midsize US city. We estimated the effects of efforts to deliver higher-value care; reinvest savings and expand global payment; enable healthier behaviors; and expand socioeconomic opportunities. Results suggest that there may be an effective and affordable way to unlock much greater health and economic potential, ultimately reducing severe illness by 20 percent, lowering health care costs by 14 percent, and improving economic productivity by 9 percent. This would require combined investments in clinical and population-level initiatives, coupled with financial agreements that reduce incentives for costly care and reinvest a share of the savings to ensure adequate long-term financing.

Programs to increase high school completion: a community guide systematic health equity review.

CONTEXT: High school completion (HSC) is an established predictor of long-term morbidity and mortality. U.S. rates of HSC are substantially lower among students from low-income families and most racial/ethnic minority populations than students from high-income families and the non-Hispanic white population. This systematic review assesses the effectiveness of programs to increase HSC and the potential of these programs to improve lifelong health among at-risk students. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: A search located a meta-analysis (search period 1985-2010/2011) on the effects of programs to increase HSC or General Educational Development (GED) diploma receipt; the meta-analysis was concordant with Community Guide definitions and methodologic standards. Programs were assessed separately for the general student population (152 studies) and students who were parents or pregnant (15 studies). A search for studies published between 2010 and August 2012 located ten more recent studies, which were assessed for consistency with the meta-analysis. Analyses were conducted in 2013. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: The review focused on the meta-analysis. Program effectiveness was measured as the increased rate of HSC (or GED receipt) by the intervention group compared with controls. All assessed program types were effective in increasing HSC in the general student population: vocational training, alternative schooling, social-emotional skills training, college-oriented programming, mentoring and counseling, supplemental academic services, school and class restructuring, multiservice packages, attendance monitoring and contingencies, community service, and case management. For students who had children or were pregnant, attendance monitoring and multiservice packages were effective. Ten studies published after the search period for the meta-analysis were consistent with its findings. CONCLUSIONS: There is strong evidence that a variety of HSC programs can improve high school or GED completion rates. Because many programs are targeted to high-risk students and communities, they are likely to advance health equity.

Setting objectives for community and systems change: an application of concept mapping for planning a statewide health improvement initiative.

The Hawaii Department of Health (HDOH) used concept mapping techniques to engage local stakeholders and national subject area experts in defining the community and system factors that affect individuals' behaviors related to tobacco, nutrition, and physical activity. Over eight working days, project participants brainstormed 496 statements (edited to a final set of 90), which were then sorted and rated for their importance and feasibility. A sequence of multivariate statistical analyses, including multidimensional scaling and hierarchical cluster analysis, generated maps and figures that were then interpreted by project stakeholders. The results were immediately incorporated into an official plan, approved by the governor and state legislature, recommending how Hawaii's tobacco settlement resources could be used to create sustainable changes in population health. The results also provide empirical support for the premise that both community and systems factors ought to be considered when planning comprehensive health improvement initiatives.

Effects of full-day kindergarten on the long-term health prospects of children in low-income and racial/ethnic-minority populations: a community guide systematic review.

CONTEXT: Children from low-income and minority families are often behind higher-income and majority children in language, cognitive, and social development even before they enter school. Because educational achievement has been shown to improve long-term health, addressing these delays may foster greater health equity. This systematic review assesses the extent to which full-day kindergarten (FDK), compared with half-day kindergarten (HDK), prepares children, particularly those from low-income and minority families, to succeed in primary and secondary school and improve lifelong health. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: A meta-analysis (2010) on the effects of FDK versus HDK among U.S. children measured educational achievement at the end of kindergarten. The meta-analysis was concordant with Community Guide criteria. Findings on the longer-term effects of FDK suggested "fade-out" by third grade. The present review used evidence on the longer-term effects of pre-K education to explore the loss of FDK effects over time. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: FDK improved academic achievement by an average of 0.35 SDs (Cohen's d; 95% CI=0.23, 0.46). The effect on verbal achievement was 0.46 (Cohen's d; 95% CI=0.32, 0.61) and that on math achievement was 0.24 (Cohen's d; 95% CI=0.06, 0.43). Evidence of "fade-out" from pre-K education found that better-designed studies indicated both residual benefits over multiple years and the utility of educational boosters to maintain benefits, suggesting analogous longer-term effects of FDK. CONCLUSIONS: There is strong evidence that FDK improves academic achievement, a predictor of longer-term health benefits. To sustain early benefits, intensive elementary school education is needed. If targeted to low-income and minority communities, FDK can advance health equity.

Why behavioral and environmental interventions are needed to improve health at lower cost.

We used a dynamic simulation model of the US health system to test three proposed strategies to reduce deaths and improve the cost-effectiveness of interventions: expanding health insurance coverage, delivering better preventive and chronic care, and protecting health by enabling healthier behavior and improving environmental conditions. We found that each alone could save lives and provide good economic value, but they are likely to be more effective in combination. Although coverage and care save lives quickly, they tend to increase costs. The impact of protection grows more gradually, but it is a critical ingredient over time for lowering both the number of deaths and reducing costs. Only protection slows the growth in the prevalence of disease and injury and thereby alleviates rather than exacerbates demand on limited primary care capacity. When added to a simulated scenario with coverage and care, protection could save 90 percent more lives and reduce costs by 30 percent in year 10; by year 25, that same investment in protection could save about 140 percent more lives and reduce costs by 62 percent.