RESUMO
AIMS: Recent trials have shown that low-dose colchicine (0.5 mg once daily) reduces major cardiovascular events in patients with acute and chronic coronary syndromes. We aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of low-dose colchicine therapy in patients with chronic coronary disease when added to standard background therapy. METHODS AND RESULTS: This Markov cohort cost-effectiveness model used estimates of therapy effectiveness, transition probabilities, costs and quality of life obtained from the Low-dose Colchicine 2 (LoDoCo2) trial, as well as meta-analyses and public sources. In this trial, Low-dose colchicine was added to standard of care and compared to placebo. The main outcomes were cardiovascular events including myocardial infarction, stroke and coronary revascularisation, quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), the cost per QALY gained (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio), and net monetary benefit. In the model, low-dose colchicine therapy yielded 0.04 additional QALYs compared with standard of care at an incremental cost of 455 from a societal perspective and 729 from a healthcare perspective, resulting in a cost per QALY gained of 12,176/QALY from a societal perspective and 19,499/QALY from a healthcare perspective. Net monetary benefit was 1,414 from a societal perspective and 1,140 from a healthcare perspective. Low-dose colchicine has a 96% and 94% chance of being cost effective, from respectively a societal and healthcare perspective when using a willingness to pay of 50,000/QALY. Net monetary benefit would decrease below zero when annual low-dose colchicine costs would exceed an annual cost of 221 per patient. CONCLUSION: Adding low-dose colchicine to standard of care in patients with chronic coronary disease is cost-effective according to commonly accepted thresholds in Europe and Australia and compares favourably in cost-effectiveness to other drugs used in chronic coronary disease.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: We aimed to compare the prognostic value of a single "baseline" echocardiogram with repeated echocardiography in stable chronic heart failure (CHF) patients. We hypothesized that repeated echocardiograms would contain incremental prognostic information. METHODS: In the prospective Bio-SHiFT study, we performed 332 echocardiograms in 106 patients during a median follow-up of 2.3 years. The endpoint comprised HF hospitalization, left ventricular (LV) assist device implantation, heart transplantation, and cardiovascular death. We compared hazard ratios (HRs; adjusted for N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide) from Cox models for the first available measurement with HRs from joint models, which model individual trajectories based on the repeated measurements and link these to the time-to-event data. RESULTS: The mean age of the patients was 58.1 years; 78.3% were male, 12.6% had New York Heart Association class >II, all had reduced ejection fraction, and the most common HF etiologies were cardiomyopathies (51%) and ischemia (40%). The endpoint occurred in 25 patients. Both the single measurements and the temporal trajectories were significantly associated with the endpoint (adjusted HR Cox model [95% CI] vs adjusted HR joint model [95% CI]): LV ejection fraction, 1.47 (0.93-2.31) vs 1.77 (1.13-2.93); diastolic LV diameter, 1.64 (1.09-2.47) vs 1.68 (1.12-2.57); systolic LV diameter, 1.72 (1.10-2.69) vs 1.68 (1.13-2.63); systolic left atrial diameter, 1.88 (1.18-3.00) vs 2.60 (1.48-4.97); E/A ratio, 2.73 (1.42-5.26) vs 3.87 (1.75-10.13); and E/e' ratio, 2.30 (1.38-3.84) vs 2.99 (1.68-6.19). None of the trajectories from the investigated parameters showed worsening prior to events. CONCLUSIONS: Although single baseline or repeatedly measured echocardiographic parameters were associated with the endpoint, all parameters remained on average stable during the 2.3 years of follow-up in this largely minimally symptomatic CHF cohort. Thus, regular echocardiographic monitoring of systolic or diastolic LV function within this time frame does not carry incremental prognostic information over a single baseline measurement.