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1.
Inquiry ; 60: 469580231219443, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38102846

RESUMO

Many nursing homes operated at thin profit margins prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. This study examines the role of nursing homes' financial performance and chain affiliation in shortages of personal protection equipment (PPE) during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. We constructed a longitudinal file of 79 868 nursing home-week observations from 10 872 unique facilities. We found that a positive profit margin was associated with a 21.0% lower probability of reporting PPE shortages in chain-affiliated nursing homes, but not in non-chain nursing homes. Having adequate financial resources may help nursing homes address future emergencies, especially those affiliated with a multi-facility chain.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Humanos , Estudos Longitudinais , Pandemias , Casas de Saúde , Equipamento de Proteção Individual
2.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 2274, 2021 04 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33859196

RESUMO

Massive unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic could result in an eviction crisis in US cities. Here we model the effect of evictions on SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, simulating viral transmission within and among households in a theoretical metropolitan area. We recreate a range of urban epidemic trajectories and project the course of the epidemic under two counterfactual scenarios, one in which a strict moratorium on evictions is in place and enforced, and another in which evictions are allowed to resume at baseline or increased rates. We find, across scenarios, that evictions lead to significant increases in infections. Applying our model to Philadelphia using locally-specific parameters shows that the increase is especially profound in models that consider realistically heterogenous cities in which both evictions and contacts occur more frequently in poorer neighborhoods. Our results provide a basis to assess eviction moratoria and show that policies to stem evictions are a warranted and important component of COVID-19 control.


Assuntos
COVID-19/transmissão , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Habitação/legislação & jurisprudência , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Políticas , COVID-19/economia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/virologia , Cidades/legislação & jurisprudência , Cidades/estatística & dados numéricos , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/legislação & jurisprudência , Simulação por Computador , Habitação/economia , Humanos , Modelos Estatísticos , Philadelphia/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2/patogenicidade , Desemprego/estatística & dados numéricos , População Urbana/estatística & dados numéricos
3.
Front Artif Intell ; 4: 554017, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35187469

RESUMO

It is currently estimated that 67% of malaria deaths occur in children under-five years (WHO, 2020). To improve the identification of children at clinical risk for malaria, the WHO developed community (iCCM) and clinic-based (IMCI) protocols for frontline health workers using paper-based forms or digital mobile health (mHealth) platforms. To investigate improving the accuracy of these point-of-care clinical risk assessment protocols for malaria in febrile children, we embedded a malaria rapid diagnostic test (mRDT) workflow into THINKMD's (IMCI) mHealth clinical risk assessment platform. This allowed us to perform a comparative analysis of THINKMD-generated malaria risk assessments with mRDT truth data to guide modification of THINKMD algorithms, as well as develop new supervised machine learning (ML) malaria risk algorithms. We utilized paired clinical data and malaria risk assessments acquired from over 555 children presenting to five health clinics in Kano, Nigeria to train ML algorithms to identify malaria cases using symptom and location data, as well as confirmatory mRDT results. Supervised ML random forest algorithms were generated using 80% of our field-based data as the ML training set and 20% to test our new ML logic. New ML-based malaria algorithms showed an increased sensitivity and specificity of 60 and 79%, and PPV and NPV of 76 and 65%, respectively over THINKD initial IMCI-based algorithms. These results demonstrate that combining mRDT "truth" data with digital mHealth platform clinical assessments and clinical data can improve identification of children with malaria/non-malaria attributable febrile illnesses.

4.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 16(7): e1007941, 2020 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32644990

RESUMO

Individuals in low socioeconomic brackets are considered at-risk for developing influenza-related complications and often exhibit higher than average influenza-related hospitalization rates. This disparity has been attributed to various factors, including restricted access to preventative and therapeutic health care, limited sick leave, and household structure. Adequate influenza surveillance in these at-risk populations is a critical precursor to accurate risk assessments and effective intervention. However, the United States of America's primary national influenza surveillance system (ILINet) monitors outpatient healthcare providers, which may be largely inaccessible to lower socioeconomic populations. Recent initiatives to incorporate Internet-source and hospital electronic medical records data into surveillance systems seek to improve the timeliness, coverage, and accuracy of outbreak detection and situational awareness. Here, we use a flexible statistical framework for integrating multiple surveillance data sources to evaluate the adequacy of traditional (ILINet) and next generation (BioSense 2.0 and Google Flu Trends) data for situational awareness of influenza across poverty levels. We find that ZIP Codes in the highest poverty quartile are a critical vulnerability for ILINet that the integration of next generation data fails to ameliorate.


Assuntos
Viés , Influenza Humana , Vigilância da População , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Instituições de Assistência Ambulatorial/estatística & dados numéricos , Bases de Dados Factuais , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Influenza Humana/complicações , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Influenza Humana/terapia , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
5.
Nat Ecol Evol ; 4(2): 240-249, 2020 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31959939

RESUMO

Supergenes are clusters of linked genetic loci that jointly affect the expression of complex phenotypes, such as social organization. Little is known about the origin and evolution of these intriguing genomic elements. Here we analyse whole-genome sequences of males from native populations of six fire ant species and show that variation in social organization is under the control of a novel supergene haplotype (termed Sb), which evolved by sequential incorporation of three inversions spanning half of a 'social chromosome'. Two of the inversions interrupt protein-coding genes, resulting in the increased expression of one gene and modest truncation in the primary protein structure of another. All six socially polymorphic species studied harbour the same three inversions, with the single origin of the supergene in their common ancestor inferred by phylogenomic analyses to have occurred half a million years ago. The persistence of Sb along with the ancestral SB haplotype through multiple speciation events provides a striking example of a functionally important trans-species social polymorphism presumably maintained by balancing selection. We found that while recombination between the Sb and SB haplotypes is severely restricted in all species, a low level of gene flux between the haplotypes has occurred following the appearance of the inversions, potentially mitigating the evolutionary degeneration expected at genomic regions that cannot freely recombine. These results provide a detailed picture of the structural genomic innovations involved in the formation of a supergene controlling a complex social phenotype.


Assuntos
Formigas , Animais , Inversão Cromossômica , Masculino , Fenótipo , Filogenia , Polimorfismo Genético
6.
Am J Trop Med Hyg ; 100(6): 1556-1565, 2019 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30994099

RESUMO

Approximately 3 million children younger than 5 years living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) die each year from treatable clinical conditions such as pneumonia, dehydration secondary to diarrhea, and malaria. A majority of these deaths could be prevented with early clinical assessments and appropriate therapeutic intervention. In this study, we describe the development and initial validation testing of a mobile health (mHealth) platform, MEDSINC®, designed for frontline health workers (FLWs) to perform clinical risk assessments of children aged 2-60 months. MEDSINC is a web browser-based clinical severity assessment, triage, treatment, and follow-up recommendation platform developed with physician-based Bayesian pattern recognition logic. Initial validation, usability, and acceptability testing were performed on 861 children aged between 2 and 60 months by 49 FLWs in Burkina Faso, Ecuador, and Bangladesh. MEDSINC-based clinical assessments by FLWs were independently and blindly correlated with clinical assessments by 22 local health-care professionals (LHPs). Results demonstrate that clinical assessments by FLWs using MEDSINC had a specificity correlation between 84% and 99% to LHPs, except for two outlier assessments (63% and 75%) at one study site, in which local survey prevalence data indicated that MEDSINC outperformed LHPs. In addition, MEDSINC triage recommendation distributions were highly correlated with those of LHPs, whereas usability and feasibility responses from LHP/FLW were collectively positive for ease of use, learning, and job performance. These results indicate that the MEDSINC platform could significantly increase pediatric health-care capacity in LMICs by improving FLWs' ability to accurately assess health status and triage of children, facilitating early life-saving therapeutic interventions.


Assuntos
Serviços de Saúde da Criança , Agentes Comunitários de Saúde , Atenção à Saúde , Sistemas de Informação em Saúde , Serviços de Saúde Rural , Algoritmos , Bangladesh , Burkina Faso , Pré-Escolar , Equador , Humanos , Lactente , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Telemedicina
9.
Innovations (Phila) ; 13(1): 40-46, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29303867

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Morbidity due to sternotomy continues to be a significant clinical problem. Poor approximation of the sternum may lead to complications such as sternal dehiscence, infection, and pain. A device to assist in tensioning and twisting standard steel wires during sternal closure has been developed (TORQ sternal closure device). Manually tightened interrupted wire closures were compared with those tightened and secured with the aid of the device. Performance of the device was assessed clinically. METHODS: Four cardiovascular surgeons performed manual and device-assisted closures on a biofidelic model. Closure force was measured to determine the residual force and its intraoperator variation. A retrospective review of patients treated before and after the introduction of the device was conducted. Predicted and actual outcomes were compared for the two groups (manual closure and device-assisted closure). RESULTS: Biomechanical testing measured a 75% increase in residual closure force (P < 0.001) and a significant reduction in the variability of the closure force (P = 0.045) for device-assisted closures compared with manual closures. In the retrospective study, 3 of 173 manually closed patients had sterile sternal dehiscence and 1 of 173 had a deep sternal wound infection. In the device closure group, 2 of 127 had a sterile sternal dehiscence and no deep sternal wound infections were reported. No other device-related serious adverse events were reported. CONCLUSIONS: Biomechanical data showed stronger, more consistent closure forces with the device. The retrospective data attest to the performance of the device.


Assuntos
Fios Ortopédicos/estatística & dados numéricos , Esternotomia/efeitos adversos , Esterno/cirurgia , Técnicas de Sutura/instrumentação , Idoso , Fenômenos Biomecânicos/fisiologia , Desenho de Equipamento/instrumentação , Desenho de Equipamento/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Esternotomia/mortalidade , Esterno/patologia , Cirurgiões/estatística & dados numéricos , Deiscência da Ferida Operatória/etiologia , Infecção da Ferida Cirúrgica/etiologia , Resistência à Tração/fisiologia
10.
Rev Panam Salud Publica ; 42: e172, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31093200

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To assess the need for decentralization of psychiatric services in El Salvador, based on country-specific evidence, and to generate baseline measures the government and researchers could use to monitor and measure future progress toward decentralization. METHODS: Observations were made and psychiatric outpatients and their families/caregivers (n = 453) surveyed with a cross-sectional instrument at the National Psychiatric Hospital (Hospital Nacional General y de Psiquiatría "Dr. José Molina Martínez") in the capital city of San Salvador. Findings were compared with national census data to determine barriers to psychiatric care in a largely centralized system. The following data were collected: department of origin, travel time to hospital, time in hospital, costs, and qualitative comments about accessing services. Descriptive statistics and regression were used to assess the data. Government reports on all psychiatric outpatient consultations provided nationwide in 2015 (n = 61 010) at 10 regional hospitals were also reviewed and compared to population data to determine the proportion of the population of each hospital service area (department or group of departments) that received a psychiatric outpatient consultation. RESULTS: Households from the half of the country (7 out of 14 departments) farthest away from the National Psychiatric Hospital (42% of the general population) spent twice as much time and three times as much money to access the hospital's psychiatric outpatient services, resulting in severe hardship on both patients and families/caregivers. CONCLUSIONS: This report estimates that 45% of those with mental health needs in the seven departments farthest away from the National Psychiatric Hospital departments are still not accessing services compared to the seven departments nearest the hospital. The results of this study support the World Health Organization's call for governments to fully implement community-based mental health systems. This is the first study to assess progress toward decentralization of psychiatric services in El Salvador.

11.
J Empir Res Hum Res Ethics ; 13(1): 101-110, 2018 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29179623

RESUMO

National Institutes of Health principal investigators reported their perceptions of the ethical defensibility, prevalence in their field, and their personal willingness to engage in questionable research practices (QRPs). Using ethical defensibility ratings, an exploratory factor analysis yielded a two-factor solution: behaviors considered unambiguously ethically indefensible and behaviors whose ethical defensibility was more ambiguous. In addition, increasing perceptions that QRPs affect science predicted reduced acceptability of QRPs, whereas increasing beliefs that QRPs are normative or necessary for career success predicted increased acceptability of QRPs. Perceptions that QRPs are risky were unrelated to QRP acceptability but predicted reduced extramural funding (i.e., researchers' lifetime extramural grants and total funding secured). These results identify risk (i.e., beliefs that QRPs are normative to stay competitive in one's field) and protective factors (i.e., beliefs that QRPs have a significant negative impact on society) related to QRP endorsement that could inform educational interventions for training research scientists.


Assuntos
Ética em Pesquisa , Conhecimentos, Atitudes e Prática em Saúde , Motivação , Projetos de Pesquisa , Pesquisadores/ética , Má Conduta Científica , Logro , Humanos , National Institutes of Health (U.S.) , Prevalência , Pesquisadores/psicologia , Apoio à Pesquisa como Assunto , Risco , Normas Sociais , Responsabilidade Social , Incerteza , Estados Unidos
12.
Rev. panam. salud pública ; 42: e172, 2018. tab, graf
Artigo em Inglês | LILACS | ID: biblio-978845

RESUMO

ABSTRACT Objective To assess the need for decentralization of psychiatric services in El Salvador, based on country-specific evidence, and to generate baseline measures the government and researchers could use to monitor and measure future progress toward decentralization. Methods Observations were made and psychiatric outpatients and their families/caregivers (n = 453) surveyed with a cross-sectional instrument at the National Psychiatric Hospital (Hospital Nacional General y de Psiquiatría "Dr. José Molina Martínez") in the capital city of San Salvador. Findings were compared with national census data to determine barriers to psychiatric care in a largely centralized system. The following data were collected: department of origin, travel time to hospital, time in hospital, costs, and qualitative comments about accessing services. Descriptive statistics and regression were used to assess the data. Government reports on all psychiatric outpatient consultations provided nationwide in 2015 (n = 61 010) at 10 regional hospitals were also reviewed and compared to population data to determine the proportion of the population of each hospital service area (department or group of departments) that received a psychiatric outpatient consultation. Results Households from the half of the country (7 out of 14 departments) farthest away from the National Psychiatric Hospital (42% of the general population) spent twice as much time and three times as much money to access the hospital's psychiatric outpatient services, resulting in severe hardship on both patients and families/caregivers. Conclusions This report estimates that 45% of those with mental health needs in the seven departments farthest away from the National Psychiatric Hospital departments are still not accessing services compared to the seven departments nearest the hospital. The results of this study support the World Health Organization's call for governments to fully implement community-based mental health systems. This is the first study to assess progress toward decentralization of psychiatric services in El Salvador.


RESUMEN Objetivo Evaluar la necesidad de la descentralización de los servicios psiquiátricos en El Salvador con base en la evidencia específica del país y generar medidas de referencia que podrían ser utilizadas por el gobierno y los investigadores para monitorear y medir el progreso futuro hacia la descentralización. Métodos Se realizaron observaciones, y se encuestaron pacientes psiquiátricos ambulatorios y sus familiares/cuidadores (n = 453) con un instrumento de corte transversal en el Hospital Nacional Psiquiátrico (Hospital Nacional General y de Psiquiatría "Dr. José Molina Martínez") en la capital, San Salvador. Los hallazgos se compararon con los datos del censo nacional para determinar las barreras en el acceso a la atención psiquiátrica en un sistema en gran medida centralizado. Se recopilaron los siguientes datos: departamento de origen, tiempo de viaje al hospital, tiempo en el hospital, costos y comentarios cualitativos sobre el acceso a los servicios. Se usaron estadísticas descriptivas y regresión para evaluar los datos. También se revisaron informes gubernamentales sobre todas las consultas psiquiátricas ambulatorias proporcionados a nivel nacional en 2015 (n = 61 010) en 10 hospitales regionales, y estos se compararon con datos poblacionales para determinar la proporción de la población de cada área de servicio hospitalario (departamento o grupo de departamentos) que efectuó una consulta psiquiátrica ambulatoria. Resultados Los hogares de la mitad del país (7 de los 14 departamentos) más alejados del Hospital Psiquiátrico Nacional (42% de la población general) gastaron el doble de tiempo y tres veces más dinero para acceder a los servicios psiquiátricos ambulatorios del hospital, lo que resultó en dificultades económicas severas tanto para los pacientes como para sus familias/cuidadores. Conclusiones Este informe estimó que el 45% de las personas con necesidades de salud mental en los 7 departamentos más alejados del Hospital Nacional Psiquiátrico aún no tienen acceso a los servicios en comparación con los 7 departamentos más cercanos al hospital. Los resultados de este estudio respaldan el llamado de la Organización Mundial de la Salud para que los gobiernos implementen por completo sistemas de salud mental basados en la comunidad. Este es el primer estudio en evaluar el progreso hacia la descentralización de los servicios psiquiátricos en El Salvador.


RESUMO Objetivo Avaliar a necessidade de descentralização dos serviços psiquiátricos em El Salvador com base em provas específicas do país e gerar medições de referência que poderiam ser usados pelo governo e pesquisadores para monitorar e medir o progresso futuro no sentido da descentralização. Métodos Observações foram feitas, e foram pesquisados pacientes psiquiátricos ambulatoriais e suas famílias/cuidadores (n = 453) com uma ferramentas de seção transversal no Hospital Psiquiátrico Nacional (National Hospital Geral e Psiquiatria "Dr. Jose Molina Martinez") na capital, São Salvador. Os resultados foram comparados com dados do censo nacional para determinar as barreiras ao acesso à assistência psiquiátrica em um sistema amplamente centralizado. Os seguintes dados foram coletados: departamento de origem, tempo de deslocamento para o hospital, tempo no hospital, custos e comentários qualitativos sobre o acesso aos serviços. Para avaliar os dados foram utilizadas estatística descritiva e regressão. Também foram analisados relatórios do governo sobre todas as consultas psiquiátricas ambulatoriais a nível nacional em 2015 (n = 61 010) em 10 hospitais regionais, e comparados com os dados da população para determinar a proporção da população de cada área de serviço hospitalar (departamento ou grupo de departamentos) que recebeu uma consulta psiquiátrica para pacientes ambulatoriais. Resultados As pessoas da metade do país (7 dos 14 departamentos) mais afastada do Hospital Psiquiátrico Nacional (42% da população geral) gastaram o dobro do tempo e três vezes mais dinheiro para acessar os serviços psiquiátricos ambulatoriais do hospital, o que resultou em privação severa para pacientes e familiares/cuidadores. Conclusões Este relatório estimou que 45% das pessoas com necessidades de saúde mental nos 7 departamentos mais distantes do Hospital Psiquiátrico Nacional ainda não têm acesso aos serviços em comparação com os 7 departamentos mais próximos do hospital. Os resultados deste estudo apoiam o apelo da Organização Mundial de Saúde para que os governos implementem totalmente os sistemas de saúde mental baseados na comunidade. Este é o primeiro estudo a avaliar o progresso em direção à descentralização dos serviços psiquiátricos em El Salvador.


Assuntos
Política , Serviços Comunitários de Saúde Mental , Equidade no Acesso aos Serviços de Saúde , Serviços de Saúde Mental , El Salvador
13.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 23(4): 642-644, 2017 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28322711

RESUMO

As public health agencies struggle to track and contain emerging arbovirus threats, timely and efficient surveillance is more critical than ever. Using historical dengue data from Puerto Rico, we developed methods for streamlining and designing novel arbovirus surveillance systems with or without historical disease data.


Assuntos
Dengue/epidemiologia , Dengue/virologia , Monitoramento Epidemiológico , Vigilância da População/métodos , Animais , Serviços de Saúde , Humanos , Porto Rico/epidemiologia
14.
Int J Audiol ; 55(11): 699-705, 2016 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27434545

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: In contrast to previous clinical practice, current guidelines recommend bilateral cochlear implantation in children, resulting in a cohort of children who initially received one implant, but have subsequently had a second, contralateral implant. This study aimed to explore satisfaction and quality of life in children implanted simultaneously or sequentially. DESIGN: A novel measure of satisfaction and quality of life following paediatric bilateral cochlear implantation (the Brief Assessment of Parental Perception; BAPP) was developed and preliminary validation undertaken as part of a large, national project of bilateral implantation. Children's parents completed the measure yearly for up to three years following implantation. STUDY SAMPLE: Children from 14 UK implant centres were recruited into the study; data were available for 410 children one year post-implantation. RESULTS: The BAPP was found to have good face and convergent validity, and internal consistency. Results indicated very high levels of satisfaction with the devices, and improvements in quality of life. However there was evidence that children implanted sequentially were less willing to wear their second implant in the first two years than those children receiving simultaneous implants. CONCLUSION: Simultaneous and sequential cochlear implants have a positive impact on the quality of life of deaf children.


Assuntos
Implante Coclear/instrumentação , Implantes Cocleares , Surdez/reabilitação , Pais/psicologia , Percepção , Pessoas com Deficiência Auditiva/reabilitação , Inquéritos e Questionários , Adolescente , Comportamento do Adolescente , Fatores Etários , Percepção Auditiva , Criança , Comportamento Infantil , Pré-Escolar , Surdez/diagnóstico , Surdez/psicologia , Emoções , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Masculino , Satisfação do Paciente , Pessoas com Deficiência Auditiva/psicologia , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Desenho de Prótese , Qualidade de Vida , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Comportamento Social , Fatores de Tempo , Resultado do Tratamento , Reino Unido
15.
Vaccine ; 34(29): 3405-11, 2016 06 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27087151

RESUMO

Despite steady vaccination coverage rates, pertussis incidence in the United States has continued to rise. This public health challenge has motivated calls for the development of a new vaccine with greater efficacy and duration of protection. Any next-generation vaccine would likely come at a higher cost, and must provide sufficient health benefits beyond those provided by the current vaccine in order to be deemed cost-effective. Using an age-structured transmission model of pertussis, we quantified the health and economic benefits of a next-generation vaccine that would enhance either the efficacy or duration of protection of the childhood series, the duration of the adult booster, or a combination. We developed a metric, the maximum cost-effective price increase (MCPI), to compare the potential value of such improvements. The MCPI estimates the per-dose price increase that would maintain the cost-effectiveness of pertussis vaccination. We evaluated the MCPI across a range of potential single and combined improvements to the pertussis vaccine. As an upper bound, we found that a next-generation vaccine which could achieve perfect efficacy for the childhood series would permit an MCPI of $18 per dose (95% CI: $12-$31). Pertussis vaccine improvements that extend the duration of protection to an average of 75 years would allow for an MCPI of $22 per dose for the childhood series (CI: $10-$33) or $12 for the adult booster (CI: $4-$18). Despite the short duration of the adult booster, improvements to the childhood series could be more valuable than improvements to the adult booster. Combining improvements in both efficacy and duration, a childhood series with perfect efficacy and average duration of 75 years would permit an MCPI of $39 per dose, the highest of any scenario evaluated. Our results highlight the utility of the MCPI metric in evaluating potential vaccines or other interventions when prices are unknown.


Assuntos
Análise Custo-Benefício , Vacina contra Coqueluche/economia , Vacinação/economia , Coqueluche/prevenção & controle , Adolescente , Adulto , Criança , Humanos , Imunização Secundária/economia , Lactente , Modelos Teóricos , Vacina contra Coqueluche/uso terapêutico , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida
16.
JAMA Pediatr ; 170(5): 459-65, 2016 05 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27018830

RESUMO

IMPORTANCE: Current acellular pertussis vaccines may not protect against transmission of Bordetella pertussis. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether a priming dose of whole-cell pertussis (wP) vaccine is cost-effective at reducing pertussis infection in infants. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Mathematical model of pertussis transmission fit to US incidence data in a simulation of the US population. In this simulation study conducted from June 2014 to May 2015, the population was divided into 9 age groups corresponding to the current pertussis vaccination schedule and fit to 2012 pertussis incidence. INTERVENTIONS: Inclusion of a priming dose of wP vaccine into the current acellular pertussis vaccination schedule. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Reductions in symptomatic pertussis incidence by age group, increases in wP vaccine-related adverse effects, and quality-adjusted life-years owing to changing vaccine schedule. RESULTS: Switching to a wP-priming vaccination strategy could reduce whooping cough incidence by up to 95% (95% CI, 91-98), including 96% (95% CI, 92-98) fewer infections in neonates. Although there may be an increase in the number of vaccine adverse effects, we nonetheless estimate a 95% reduction in quality-adjusted life-years lost with a switch to the combined strategy and a cost reduction of 94% (95% CI, 91-97), saving more than $142 million annually. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Our results suggest that an alternative vaccination schedule including 1 dose of wP vaccine may be highly cost-effective and ethically preferred until next-generation pertussis vaccines become available.


Assuntos
Vacina contra Coqueluche , Coqueluche/prevenção & controle , Adolescente , Distribuição por Idade , Bordetella pertussis , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Análise Custo-Benefício , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Lactente , Masculino , Modelos Biológicos , Modelos Teóricos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Vacinação/métodos , Coqueluche/economia , Coqueluche/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
17.
J Empir Res Hum Res Ethics ; 11(2): 165-9, 2016 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27009304

RESUMO

Peer assessments of researchers' financial conflicts of interest (FCOIs) are crucial to effective FCOI management. We sought to determine how academics perceive FCOI disclosure and whether their perceptions vary depending on discipline and educational backgrounds. Participants (faculty and staff members from a multi-disciplinary academic medical center) responded to a questionnaire involving 10 hypothetical scenarios in which researchers either disclosed or failed to disclose a financial conflict (between-participants manipulation). Participants viewed disclosure as important and believed that researchers' objectivity would be affected by undisclosed FCOIs. In contrast to non-physicians, physicians showed greater recognition that the existence of an FCOI does not depend on its disclosure. This suggests that physicians are relatively well informed about FCOIs, which is likely attributable to more education about them.


Assuntos
Centros Médicos Acadêmicos , Atitude , Pesquisa Biomédica/ética , Conflito de Interesses , Revelação , Pesquisadores/ética , Adulto , Comércio , Educação , Docentes , Feminino , Humanos , Indústrias , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Grupo Associado , Médicos , Inquéritos e Questionários
18.
G3 (Bethesda) ; 5(12): 2639-45, 2015 Oct 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26438295

RESUMO

Increasingly, researchers are interested in estimating the heritability of traits for nonmodel organisms. However, estimating the heritability of these traits presents both experimental and statistical challenges, which typically arise from logistical difficulties associated with rearing large numbers of families independently in the field, a lack of known pedigree, the need to account for group or batch effects, etc. Here we develop both an empirical and computational methodology for estimating the narrow-sense heritability of traits for highly fecund species. Our experimental approach controls for undesirable culturing effects while minimizing culture numbers, increasing feasibility in the field. Our statistical approach accounts for known issues with model-selection by using a permutation test to calculate significance values and includes both fitting and power calculation methods. We further demonstrate that even with moderately high sample-sizes, the p-values derived from asymptotic properties of the likelihood ratio test are overly conservative, thus reducing statistical power. We illustrate our methodology by estimating the narrow-sense heritability for larval settlement, a key life-history trait, in the reef-building coral Orbicella faveolata. The experimental, statistical, and computational methods, along with all of the data from this study, are available in the R package multiDimBio.


Assuntos
Fertilidade/genética , Padrões de Herança , Modelos Genéticos , Característica Quantitativa Herdável , Algoritmos , Animais , Simulação por Computador , Variação Genética , Larva/genética , Modelos Estatísticos , Método de Monte Carlo , Fenótipo , Locos de Características Quantitativas
19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26382468

RESUMO

Epidemic processes are common out-of-equilibrium phenomena of broad interdisciplinary interest. Recently, dynamic message-passing (DMP) has been proposed as an efficient algorithm for simulating epidemic models on networks, and in particular for estimating the probability that a given node will become infectious at a particular time. To date, DMP has been applied exclusively to models with one-way state changes, as opposed to models like SIS and SIRS where nodes can return to previously inhabited states. Because many real-world epidemics can exhibit such recurrent dynamics, we propose a DMP algorithm for complex, recurrent epidemic models on networks. Our approach takes correlations between neighboring nodes into account while preventing causal signals from backtracking to their immediate source, and thus avoids "echo chamber effects" where a pair of adjacent nodes each amplify the probability that the other is infectious. We demonstrate that this approach well approximates results obtained from Monte Carlo simulation and that its accuracy is often superior to the pair approximation (which also takes second-order correlations into account). Moreover, our approach is more computationally efficient than the pair approximation, especially for complex epidemic models: the number of variables in our DMP approach grows as 2mk where m is the number of edges and k is the number of states, as opposed to mk^{2} for the pair approximation. We suspect that the resulting reduction in computational effort, as well as the conceptual simplicity of DMP, will make it a useful tool in epidemic modeling, especially for high-dimensional inference tasks.


Assuntos
Algoritmos , Epidemias , Modelos Biológicos , Simulação por Computador , Método de Monte Carlo , Recidiva
20.
Sci Eng Ethics ; 21(4): 875-94, 2015 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25008103

RESUMO

This study explored how disclosure of financial conflicts of interest (FCOI) influences naïve or "lay" individuals' perceptions of the ethicality of researcher conduct. On a between-subjects basis, participants read ten scenarios in which researchers disclosed or failed to disclose relevant financial conflicts of interest. Participants evaluated the extent to which each vignette represented a FCOI, its possible influence on researcher objectivity, and the ethics of the financial relationship. Participants were then asked if they had completed a college-level ethics course. Results indicated that FCOI disclosure significantly influenced participants' perceptions of the ethicality of the situation, but only marginally affected perceptions of researcher objectivity and had no significant influence on perceptions of the existence of FCOIs. Participants who had previously completed a college-level ethics course appeared more sensitive to the importance of FCOI disclosure than those who lacked such background. This result suggests that formal ethical training may help individuals become more critical consumers of scientific research.


Assuntos
Atitude , Conflito de Interesses , Revelação , Educação não Profissionalizante , Ciência/ética , Adolescente , Adulto , Conflito de Interesses/economia , Ética em Pesquisa , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Percepção , Pesquisadores , Universidades , Adulto Jovem
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