Chronic kidney disease and transvenous cardiac implantable electronic device infection-is there an impact on healthcare utilization, costs, disease progression, and mortality?

AIMS: Cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED) infections are a burden to hospitals and costly for healthcare systems. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) increases the risk of CIED infections, but its differential impact on healthcare utilization, costs, and outcomes is not known. METHODS AND RESULTS: This retrospective analysis used de-identified Medicare Fee-for-Service claims to identify patients implanted with a CIED from July 2016 to December 2020. Outcomes were defined as hospital days and costs within 12 months post-implant, post-infection CKD progression, and mortality. Generalized linear models were used to calculate results by CKD and infection status while controlling for other comorbidities, with differences between cohorts representing the incremental effect associated with CKD. A total of 584 543 patients had a CIED implant, of which 26% had CKD and 1.4% had a device infection. The average total days in hospital for infected patients was 23.5 days with CKD vs. 14.5 days (P < 0.001) without. The average cost of infection was $121 756 with CKD vs. $55 366 without (P < 0.001), leading to an incremental cost associated with CKD of $66 390. Infected patients with CKD were more likely to have septicaemia or severe sepsis than those without CKD (11.0 vs. 4.6%, P < 0.001). After infection, CKD patients were more likely to experience CKD progression (hazard ratio 1.26, P < 0.001) and mortality (hazard ratio 1.89, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Cardiac implantable electronic device infection in patients with CKD was associated with more healthcare utilization, higher cost, greater disease progression, and greater mortality compared to patients without CKD.

Assessment of progression of pulmonary fibrosis based on metabonomics and analysis of intestinal microbiota.

The main purpose of this study was to explore the changes of biomarkers in different developmental stages of bleomycin-induced pulmonary fibrosis (PF) in rats via comprehensive pathophysiology, UPLC-QTOF/MS metabonomic technology, and 16S rRNA gene sequencing of intestinal microbiota. The rats were randomly divided into normal control and 1-, 2- and 4-week model group. The rat model of PF was established by one-time intratracheal instillation of bleomycin. The levels of inflammatory and fibrosis-related factors such as hydroxyproline (HYP), type III procollagen (COL-III), type IV collagen (COL-IV), hyaluronidase (HA), laminin (LN), interleukin (IL)-1ß, IL-6, malondialdehyde (MDA) increased and superoxide dismutase (SOD) decreased as the PF cycle progressed. In the 1-, 2- and 4-week model group, 2, 19 and 18 potential metabolic biomarkers and 3, 16 and 12 potential microbial biomarkers were detected, respectively, which were significantly correlated. Glycerophospholipid metabolism pathway was observed to be an important pathway affecting PF at 1, 2 and 4 weeks; arginine and proline metabolism pathways significantly affected PF at 2 weeks. Linoleic acid metabolism pathway exhibited clear metabolic abnormalities at 2 and 4 weeks of PF, and alpha-linolenic acid metabolism pathway significantly affected PF at 4 weeks.

In this study, metabolomics technology and intestinal microbiota 16S rRNA gene sequencing were used to search for biomarkers with significant differences in each stage of pulmonary fibrosis. Finally, the variation characteristics of each stage of the disease were discussed. The hope is to provide new insights into the development of diagnostic biomarkers and potential therapeutic targets at all stages.

Real-world economic burden of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer before and after first-line therapy initiation.

AIMS: To describe healthcare costs of patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) initiating first-line (1 L) therapies from a US payer perspective. METHODS: Patients initiating a Flatiron oncologist-defined 1 L mCRPC therapy (index date) on or after mCRPC diagnosis were identified from linked electronic medical records/claims data from the Flatiron Metastatic Prostate Cancer (PC) Core Registry and Komodo's Healthcare Map. Patients were excluded if they initiated a clinical trial drug in 1 L, had <12 months of insurance eligibility prior to index, or no claims in Komodo's Healthcare Map for the Flatiron oncologist-defined index therapy. All-cause and PC-related total costs per-patient-per-month (PPPM), including costs for services and procedures from medical claims (i.e. medical costs) and costs from pharmacy claims (i.e. pharmacy costs), were described in the 12-month baseline period before 1 L therapy initiation (including the baseline pre- and post- mCRPC progression periods) and during 1 L therapy (follow-up). RESULTS: Among 459 patients with mCRPC (mean age 70 years, 57% White, 16% Black, 45% commercially-insured, 43% Medicare Advantage-insured, and 12% Medicaid-insured), average baseline all-cause total costs (PPPM) were $4,576 ($4,166 pre-mCRPC progression, $8,278 post-mCRPC progression). Average baseline PC-related total costs were $2,935 ($2,537 pre-mCRPC progression, $6,661 post-mCRPC progression). During an average 1 L duration of 8.5 months, mean total costs were $13,746 (all-cause) and $12,061 (PC-related) PPPM. The cost increase following 1 L therapy initiation was driven by higher PC-related outpatient and pharmacy costs. PC-related medical costs PPPM increased from $1,504 during baseline to $5,585 following 1 L mCRPC therapy initiation. LIMITATIONS: All analyses were descriptive; statistical testing was not performed. CONCLUSION: Incremental costs of progression to mCRPC are significant, with the majority of costs driven by higher PC-related costs. Using contemporary data, this study highlights the importance of utilizing effective therapies that slow progression and reduce healthcare resource demands despite the initial investment in treatment costs.

[Current MR imaging of cartilage in the context of knee osteoarthritis (part 2) : Cartilage pathologies and their assessment]. / Aktuelle MRT-Bildgebung des Knorpels im Kontext der Gonarthrose (Teil 2) : Knorpelpathologien und deren Beurteilung.

High-quality magnetic resonance (MR) imaging is essential for the precise assessment of the knee joint and plays a key role in the diagnostics, treatment and prognosis. Intact cartilage tissue is characterized by a smooth surface, uniform tissue thickness and an organized zonal structure, which are manifested as depth-dependent signal intensity variations. Cartilage pathologies are identifiable through alterations in signal intensity and morphology and should be communicated based on a precise terminology. Cartilage pathologies can show hyperintense and hypointense signal alterations. Cartilage defects are assessed based on their depth and should be described in terms of their location and extent. The following symptom constellations are of overarching clinical relevance in image reading and interpretation: symptom constellations associated with rapidly progressive forms of joint degeneration and unfavorable prognosis, accompanying symptom constellations mostly in connection with destabilizing meniscal lesions and subchondral insufficiency fractures (accelerated osteoarthritis) as well as symptoms beyond the "typical" degeneration, especially when a discrepancy is observed between (minor) structural changes and (major) synovitis and effusion (inflammatory arthropathy).

Changes in employment status over time in multiple sclerosis following a first episode of central nervous system demyelination, a Markov multistate model study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Understanding predictors of changes in employment status among people living with multiple sclerosis (MS) can assist health care providers to develop appropriate work retention/rehabilitation programs. We aimed to model longitudinal transitions of employment status in MS and estimate the probabilities of retaining employment status or losing or gaining employment over time in individuals with a first clinical diagnosis of central nervous system demyelination (FCD). METHODS: This prospective cohort study comprised adults (aged 18-59 years) diagnosed with FCD (n = 237) who were followed for more than 11 years. At each review, participants were assigned to one of three states: unemployed, part-time, or full-time employed. A Markov multistate model was used to examine the rate of state-to-state transitions. RESULTS: At the time of FCD, participants with full-time employment had an 89% chance of being in the same state over a 1-year period, but this decreased to 42% over the 10-year follow-up period. For unemployed participants, there was a 92% likelihood of remaining unemployed after 1 year, but this probability decreased to 53% over 10 years. Females, those who progressed to clinically definite MS, those with a higher relapse count, and those with a greater level of disability were at increased risk of transitioning to a deteriorated employment state. In addition, those who experienced clinically significant fatigue over the follow-up period were less likely to gain employment after being unemployed. CONCLUSIONS: In our FCD cohort, we found a considerable rate of employment transition during the early years post-diagnosis. Over more than a decade of follow-up post-FCD, we found that females and individuals with a greater disability and a higher relapse count are at higher risk of losing employment.

Assessment of Cerebral White Matter Involvement in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Patients With Disease Progression and Cognitive Impairment by Fixel-Based Analysis and Neurite Orientation Dispersion and Density Imaging.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies using emerging diffusion MRI techniques have revealed damage to the white matter (WM) microstructure in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), particularly the influence of crossed fibers, but there is a lack of subgroup analyses. PURPOSE: To detect WM microstructural changes in ALS patients using fixel-based analysis (FBA) and neurite orientation dispersion and density imaging (NODDI) MRI. STUDY TYPE: Prospective. POPULATION: Thirty-six ALS patients (aged 60.50 ± 9.5 years) and 25 healthy controls (HCs) (aged 58.90 ± 8.1 years). FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE: 3 T; NODDI and FBA (b-values = 0, 1000, and 2500 seconds/mm2 ). ASSESSMENT: Subgroups were performed according to progression rate and cognition, including fast and slow progression (FP/SP), ALS with and without cognitive impairment (ALS-ci/ALS-nci). Fiber density (FD), fiber-bundle cross-section (FC), combined fiber density and cross-section (FDC), neurite density index (NDI), orientation dispersion index (ODI), isotropic volume fraction (ISO), and fractional anisotropy (FA) were calculated and their correlation with clinical variables examined. STATISTICAL TESTING: Chi-square test, Mann-Whitney U test, two-sample t test, partial correlation analysis, and false discovery rate (FDR) corrected. A P-value <0.05 was considered significant. RESULTS: ALS patients had lower FD and FDC values predominantly in the corticospinal tract (CST) and corpus callosum (CC) regions, as well as lower NDI value in the CC, radial crown, and internal capsule compared to HCs. Subgroup analysis based on progression rate and cognitive function showed significant differences in FBA results. The FC in the right CST region was significantly lower in the FP than SP, and the FD in the CC region was significantly lower in the ALS-ci than ALS-nci. Furthermore, a negative correlation was found between the mean FC value and the rate of progression in ALS patients (r = -0.408). DATA CONCLUSION: FBA is a powerful tool for detecting complex cerebral WM microstructural damage for evaluating ALS cognition and disease progression.

Clinico-Radiological Evaluation for Longitudinal Assessment in Central Skull Base Osteomyelitis: Proposal of Novel Scoring System.

This study aims to evaluate clinical, radiological and laboratory parameters for longitudinal assessment and prognostication in central skull base osteomyelitis (CSBO). Novel radiological score and cranial nerve assessment score (CNAS) have been proposed and analysed along with pain score (VAS), ESR, CRP, WBC count, and HbA1c for utility in disease-monitoring and predicting outcome in CSBO. CSBO cases managed in a tertiary care centre from January 2018 to November 2020, with a minimum follow-up of 6 months were included. The parameters were recorded at presentation, 3-month, 6-month postoperative follow-up, and at completion of therapy, for statistical analysis. Significant positive correlation was found amongst pain score, CNAS, radiological score, ESR, and CRP at different timelines. On longitudinal assessment, there was a statistically significant reduction in above-mentioned parameters, in the cases who recovered. Those with initial radiological score < 30, pain score ≤ 7, and CNAS < 10 showed early clinical improvement, required shorter duration of antimicrobial therapy, and exhibited higher probability of becoming disease-free at an earlier time, compared to those presenting with higher scores. We propose the use of pain score, a novel cranial nerve assessment score, and a novel radiological score for longitudinal assessment in CSBO. The trend in these parameters along with ESR and CRP are useful to monitor the disease process. The initial assessment scores can predict duration of antimicrobial therapy and probability of early recovery. WBC count and HbA1c were neither useful for disease-monitoring nor predicting outcome.

Impact of selexipag use within 12 months of pulmonary arterial hypertension diagnosis on hospitalizations and medical costs: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Oral selexipag, a prostacyclin pathway agent (PPA), is effective in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). The objective of this study is to assess the impact of initiating oral selexipag within 12 months of diagnosis on health outcomes. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used data from Optum's de-identified Clinformatics® Data Mart Database. PAH patients between 1 October 2015 and 30 September 2019 were included. Patients were also required to have received PAH medication within 12 months of their initial diagnosis. Study groups included patients who initiated selexipag within 12 months of PAH diagnosis (SEL ≤ 12) and those who did not initiate any PPA within 12 months of PAH diagnosis (No PPA ≤ 12). Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to remove potential confounding between groups. Cox and Poisson regression models were used to compare hospitalization and disease progression. Generalized linear model with gamma distribution and log link was used to compare costs. RESULTS: SEL ≤ 12 had lower rate of all-cause hospitalizations (rate ratio: 0.76, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.60, 0.96) versus no PPA ≤ 12, but no differences in PAH-related hospitalization rate (rate ratio: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.79, 1.33) or risk of disease progression (hazard ratio: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.71, 1.44). SEL ≤ 12 incurred lower all-cause (mean difference: -$23 623; 95% CI: -35 537, -8512) and PAH-related total medical costs (mean difference: -$12 927; 95% CI: -19 559, -5679) versus no PPA ≤ 12. CONCLUSION: Selexipag initiation within 12 months of PAH diagnosis demonstrated reductions in all-cause hospitalization rate and medical costs.

Progression events defined by home-based assessment of motor function in multiple sclerosis: protocol of a prospective study.

Background: This study relates to emerging concepts of appropriate trial designs to evaluate effects of intervention on the accumulation of irreversible disability in multiple sclerosis (MS). Major starting points of our study are the known limitations of current definitions of disability progression by rater-based clinical assessment and the high relevance of gait and balance dysfunctions in MS. The study aims to explore a novel definition of disease progression using repeated instrumental assessment of relevant motor functions performed by patients in their home setting. Methods: The study is a prospective single-center observational cohort study with the primary outcome acquired by participants themselves, a home-based assessment of motor functions based on an RGB-Depth (RGB-D) camera, a camera that provides both depth (D) and color (RGB) data. Participants are instructed to perform and record a set of simple motor tasks twice a day over a one-week period every 6 months. Assessments are complemented by a set of questionnaires. Annual research grade assessments are acquired at dedicated study visits and include clinical ratings as well as structural imaging (MRI and optical coherence tomography). In addition, clinical data from routine visits is provided semiannually by treating neurologists. The observation period is 24 months for the primary endpoint with an additional clinical assessment at 27 month to confirm progression defined by the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). Secondary analyses aim to explore the time course of changes in motor parameters and performance of the novel definition against different alternative definitions of progression in MS. The study was registered at Deutsches Register für Klinische Studien (DRKS00027042). Discussion: The study design presented here investigates disease progression defined by marker-less home-based assessment of motor functions against 3-month confirmed disease progression (3 m-CDP) defined by the EDSS. The technical approach was chosen due to previous experience in lab-based settings. The observation time per participant of 24, respectively, 27 months is commonly conceived as the lower limit needed to study disability progression. Defining a valid digital motor outcome for disease progression in MS may help to reduce observation times in clinical trials and add confidence to the detection of progression events in MS.

Disease Burden and Progression in Patients with New-Onset Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer's Disease Identified from Japanese Claims Data: Evidence from the LIFE Study.

BACKGROUND: Accurate epidemiological data on mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer's disease (AD) can inform the development of prevention and control measures, but there is a lack of such data in Japan. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the disease burden and progression in patients with new-onset MCI or AD in Japan. METHODS: Using claims data, this multi-region cohort study was conducted on new-onset MCI and AD patients in 17 municipalities from 2014 to 2021. To characterize the patients, we investigated their age, comorbidities, and long-term care (LTC) needs levels at disease onset according to region type (urban, suburban, or rural). Disease burden was examined using health care expenditures and LTC expenditures, which were estimated for 1, 2, and 3 years after disease onset. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted for AD progression in new-onset MCI patients and death in new-onset AD patients. RESULTS: We analyzed 3,391 MCI patients and 58,922 AD patients. In MCI and AD patients, health care expenditures were high in the first year ($13,035 and $15,858, respectively), but had declined by the third year ($8,278 and $10,414, respectively). In contrast, LTC expenditures (daily living support) steadily increased over the 3-year period (MCI patients: $1,767 to $3,712, AD patients: $6,932 to $9,484). In the third year after disease onset, 30.9% of MCI patients developed AD and 23.3% of AD patients had died. CONCLUSIONS: This provides an important first look at the disease burden and progression of MCI and AD in Japan, which are high-priority diseases for a rapidly aging population.

Measuring cognitive impairment and monitoring cognitive decline in Huntington's disease: a comparison of assessment instruments.

BACKGROUND: Progressive cognitive decline is an inevitable feature of Huntington's disease (HD) but specific criteria and instruments are still insufficiently developed to reliably classify patients into categories of cognitive severity and to monitor the progression of cognitive impairment. METHODS: We collected data from a cohort of 180 positive gene-carriers: 33 with premanifest HD and 147 with manifest HD. Using a specifically developed gold-standard for cognitive status we classified participants into those with normal cognition, those with mild cognitive impairment, and those with dementia. We administered the Parkinson's Disease-Cognitive Rating Scale (PD-CRS), the MMSE and the UHDRS cogscore at baseline, and at 6-month and 12-month follow-up visits. Cutoff scores discriminating between the three cognitive categories were calculated for each instrument. For each cognitive group and instrument we addressed cognitive progression, sensitivity to change, and the minimally clinical important difference corresponding to conversion from one category to another. RESULTS: The PD-CRS cutoff scores for MCI and dementia showed excellent sensitivity and specificity ratios that were not achieved with the other instruments. Throughout follow-up, in all cognitive groups, PD-CRS captured the rate of conversion from one cognitive category to another and also the different patterns in terms of cognitive trajectories. CONCLUSION: The PD-CRS is a valid and reliable instrument to capture MCI and dementia syndromes in HD. It captures the different trajectories of cognitive progression as a function of cognitive status and shows sensitivity to change in MCI and dementia.

Iron deficiency anemia impacts disease progression and healthcare resource consumption in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: a real-world evidence study.

Background: Iron deficiency anemia (IDA) is a common extraintestinal manifestation of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), affecting around one-third of patients. Objective: To compare IBD progression and healthcare resource utilization in patients with and without a co-diagnosis of IDA in a real-world setting. Design: A retrospective comparative study was conducted using Italian entities' administrative databases, covering 9.3 million health-assisted individuals. Methods: Adult IBD patients diagnosed with ulcerative colitis and/or Crohn's disease were enrolled between January 2010 and September 2017. Within 12 months from IBD diagnosis, IDA was identified by at least one prescription for iron and/or IDA hospitalization and/or blood transfusion (proxy of diagnosis). IBD population was divided according to the presence/absence of IDA. Given the nonrandom patients' allocation, propensity score matching (PSM) was applied to abate potential unbalances between the groups. Before and after PSM, IBD progression (in terms of IBD-related hospitalizations and surgeries), and healthcare resource costs were assessed. Results: Overall, 13,475 IBD patients were included, with an average age at diagnosis of 49.9 years, and a 53.9% percentage of male gender. Before PSM, 1753 (13%) patients were IBD-IDA, and 11,722 (87%) were IBD-non-IDA. Post-PSM, 1753 IBD-IDA patients were matched with 3506 IBD-non-IDA. Before PSM, IBD progression was significantly higher in IBD-IDA (12.8%) than in IBD-non-IDA (6.5%) (p < 0.001). After PSM, IBD progression and IBD-related hospitalizations were significantly (p < 0.001) more frequent in IBD-IDA patients (12.8% and 12.0%, respectively) compared to IBD-non-IDA (8.7% and 7.7%). Consistently, healthcare expenditures resulted significantly higher among IDA patients (p < 0.001), with an overall mean annual cost of €5317 compared to €2798 for patients without IDA. These results were confirmed after PSM matching, as the mean annual total cost/patient in IBD-IDA versus IBD-non-IDA were €3693 and €3046, respectively (p < 0.001). Conclusion: In a real-life setting, IDA co-diagnosis in IBD patients was associated with disease progression and higher related economic burden.

Relationship of paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) granulocyte clone size to disease burden and risk of major vascular events in untreated patients: results from the International PNH Registry.

Paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) is caused by acquired gene mutations resulting in deficiency of glycosylphosphatidylinositol (GPI)-anchored complement regulatory proteins on the surface of blood cells, leading to terminal complement-mediated intravascular hemolysis and increased risk of major adverse vascular events (MAVEs). Using data from the International PNH Registry, this study investigated the relationship between the proportion of GPI-deficient granulocytes at PNH onset and (1) the risk for MAVEs (including thrombotic events [TEs]) and (2) the following parameters at last follow-up: high disease activity (HDA); lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) ratio; fatigue; abdominal pain; and rates of overall MAVEs and TEs. A total of 2813 patients untreated at enrollment were included and stratified by clone size at PNH disease onset (baseline). At last follow-up, higher proportion of GPI-deficient granulocytes (≤ 5% vs. > 30% clone size) at baseline was associated with significantly increased HDA incidence (14% vs. 77%), mean LDH ratio (1.3 vs. 4.7 × upper limit of normal), and rates of MAVEs 1.5 vs. 2.9 per 100 person-years) and TEs (0.9 vs. 2.0 per 100 person-years). Fatigue was evident in 71 to 76% of patients regardless of clone size. Abdominal pain was more frequently reported with clone size > 30%. A larger clone size at baseline appears to indicate a greater disease burden and risk of TEs and MAVEs and may inform decision making among physicians managing PNH patients at risk of experiencing TEs or other MAVEs. ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT01374360.

Real-world impact of dupilumab on asthma disease burden in Japan: The CROSSROAD study.

BACKGROUND: Dupilumab, a human monoclonal anti-interleukin (IL)-4Ra antibody blocks the shared receptor component of IL-4 and IL-13, drivers of type 2 inflammation. Dupilumab is approved for severe/refractory asthma inadequately controlled by existing therapies, but knowledge of its effect on real-world disease burden is lacking. This study investigates real-world effects of dupilumab on asthma exacerbation risk and oral corticosteroid (OCS) use in Japanese individuals with asthma. METHODS: This retrospective, cohort study used a Japanese insurance claims database to identify patients who started dupilumab between 26 March 2019-31 May 2020. Patients were followed for ±365 days from dupilumab initiation. The study primarily assessed the annual incidence rate of severe asthma exacerbations occurring simultaneously with hospitalizations or OCS bursts. Secondary and exploratory endpoints assessed OCS dosage and duration, and healthcare resource utilization (HRU), respectively. RESULTS: At dupilumab initiation (N = 215), mean age was 57.2 years, 41.9% of patients were aged ≥65 years, and 59.5% were female. Dupilumab significantly reduced the annual incidence of severe asthma exacerbations from 1.29 to 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.44-0.76) per patient per year. Mean OCS dosage decreased from 10.4 to 7.2 mg/day in chronic OCS users; median frequency of OCS bursts decreased from 3 to 0. Both unscheduled outpatient visits (35.8% vs 29.8%) and hospitalizations (21.9% vs 12.1%) decreased. Mean (standard deviation) duration of hospitalization also decreased from 6.7 (27.6) to 2.2 (8.1) days. CONCLUSIONS: Japanese patients with asthma who received dupilumab had reduced incidence rates of severe asthma exacerbations, OCS use, and HRU over 12 months.

Economic and Health Value of Delaying Atrial Fibrillation Progression Using Radiofrequency Catheter Ablation.

BACKGROUND: Radiofrequency catheter ablation (RFCA) is an established treatment for atrial fibrillation (AF) refractory to antiarrhythmic drugs. The economic value of RFCA in delaying disease progression has not been quantified. METHODS: An individual-level, state-transition health economic model estimated the impact of delayed AF progression using RFCA versus antiarrhythmic drug treatment for a hypothetical sample of patients with paroxysmal AF. The model incorporated the lifetime risk of progression from paroxysmal AF to persistent AF, informed by data from the ATTEST (Atrial Fibrillation Progression Trial). The incremental effect of RFCA on disease progression was modeled over a 5-year duration. Annual crossover rates were also included for patients in the antiarrhythmic drug group to mirror clinical practice. Estimates of discounted costs and quality-adjusted life years asssociated with health care utilization, clinical outcomes, and complications were projected over patients' lifetimes. RESULTS: From the payer's perspective, RFCA was superior to antiarrhythmic drug treatment with an estimated mean net monetary benefit per patient of $8516 ($148-$16 681), driven by reduced health care utilization, cost, and improved quality-adjusted life years. RFCA reduced mean (95% CI) per-patient costs by $73 (-$2700 to $2200), increased mean quality-adjusted life years by 0.084 (0.0-0.17) and decreased the mean number of cardiovascular-related health care encounters by 24%. CONCLUSIONS: RFCA is a dominant (less costly and more effective) treatment strategy for patients with AF, especially those with early AF for whom RFCA could delay progression to advanced AF. Increased utilization of RFCA-particularly among patients earlier in their disease progression-may provide clinical and economic benefits.

A comprehensive regulatory and industry review of modeling and simulation practices in oncology clinical drug development.

Exposure-response (E-R) analyses are an integral component in the development of oncology products. Characterizing the relationship between drug exposure metrics and response allows the sponsor to use modeling and simulation to address both internal and external drug development questions (e.g., optimal dose, frequency of administration, dose adjustments for special populations). This white paper is the output of an industry-government collaboration among scientists with broad experience in E-R modeling as part of regulatory submissions. The goal of this white paper is to provide guidance on what the preferred methods for E-R analysis in oncology clinical drug development are and what metrics of exposure should be considered.

Estimation of ALU Repetitive Elements in Plasma as a Cost-Effective Liquid Biopsy Tool for Disease Prognosis in Breast Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Liquid biopsy is widely recognized as an efficient diagnostic method in oncology for disease detection and monitoring. Though the examination of circulating tumor cells (CTC) is mostly implemented for the assessment of genomic aberrations, the need of complex methodologies for their detection has impeded its acceptance in low-resource settings. We evaluated cell-free DNA (cfDNA) as a liquid biopsy tool and investigated its utility in breast cancer patients. METHODS: Total cell-free DNA was extracted from the plasma of breast cancer patients (n = 167) with a median follow-up of more than 5 years, at various stages of the disease. Quantitative PCR was performed to estimate the copy numbers of two fractions of ALU repetitive elements (ALU 115 and ALU 247), and DNA integrity (DI) was calculated as the ratio of ALU 247/115. Mutations in TP53 and PIK3CA in the cfDNA were estimated by next-gen sequencing (NGS) in a subset of samples. Associations of the levels of both the ALU fragments with various clinico-pathological factors and disease-free survival at various stages were examined. Nomogram models were constructed with clinical variables and ALU 247 levels to predict disease-free survival and the best performing model was evaluated by decision curve analysis. RESULTS: DI and ALU 247 levels were significantly lower (p < 0.0001) in the post-operative plasma when compared to their pre-surgery levels. DI and ALU 247 were found to be significantly higher in patients with metastasis (p < 0.05). Patients with higher levels of ALU 247 in their post-operative plasma had significant poor disease-free survival (p = 0.005). Higher levels of ALU 247 in the circulation also correlated with low tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL) within their primary tumors in the ER-negative breast cancer subtype (p = 0.01). Cox proportional hazard analysis confirmed ALU 247 as an independent variable of disease-free survival both in univariate and multivariate analysis [HR 1.3 (95% CI 1.047 to 1.613, p = 0.017)]. The nomogram model showed that the addition of ALU 247 with other variables significantly improved (C-index 0.823) the predictive ability of the model. CONCLUSION: Our results confirm the utility of cfDNA as an evolving liquid biopsy tool for molecular analysis. Evaluation of larger fragments of cfDNA estimated through ALU 247 can provide vital information concurrent with the pathological process of disease evolution in breast cancer and warrants expansion to other cancer types.

Surveillance of the progression and assessment of treatment endpoints for nonalcoholic steatohepatitis.

Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is an aggressive form of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) characterized by steatosis-associated inflammation and liver injury. Without effective treatment or management, NASH can have life-threatening outcomes. Evaluation and identification of NASH patients at risk for adverse outcomes are therefore important. Key issues in screening NASH patients are the assessment of advanced fibrosis, differentiation of NASH from simple steatosis, and monitoring of dynamic changes during follow-up and treatment. Currently, NASH staging and evaluation of the effectiveness for drugs still rely on pathological diagnosis, despite sample error issues and the subjectivity associated with liver biopsy. Optimizing the pathological assessment of liver biopsy samples and developing noninvasive surrogate methods for accessible, accurate, and safe evaluation are therefore critical. Although noninvasive methods including elastography, serum soluble biomarkers, and combined models have been implemented in the last decade, noninvasive diagnostic measurements are not widely applied in clinical practice. More work remains to be done in establishing cost-effective strategies both for screening for at-risk NASH patients and identifying changes in disease severity. In this review, we summarize the current state of noninvasive methods for detecting steatosis, steatohepatitis, and fibrosis in patients with NASH, and discuss noninvasive assessments for screening at-risk patients with a focus on the characteristics that should be monitored at follow-up.

Classification of a patient's caries activity based on lesion activity assessment among adults: findings from a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the classification of a patient's caries activity based on lesion activity assessment can predict the increment and progression of coronal and root caries lesions among adults. METHODS: This population-based prospective cohort study followed 413 individuals (mean age 54.1) from southern Brazil for 4 years. Data collection included a questionnaire and clinical examination to record coronal/root caries and gingival recession. The main outcomes were caries increment measured as decayed, missing and filled tooth surfaces (DMFS) and caries progression (surface-level analysis). The main predictor variable was patients' caries activity at baseline ("caries-inactive" or "caries-active"). Negative binomial regression models (unadjusted and adjusted) were used. RESULTS: Caries-active individuals were more likely to present DMFS increment than caries-inactive ones when migrations among DMFS components were considered (IRR [incidence risk ratio] = 1.26, 95%CI [confidence interval] = 1.01-1.58). On the other hand, no such association was found when these migrations were disregarded. The risk for coronal caries progression on filled surfaces was 90% higher among caries-active patients (IRR=1.9; 95%CI=1.4-2.6). In addition, patient's caries activity was able to predict higher risk for root caries progression in newly exposed root surfaces (IRR=1.9; 95%CI=1.0-3.6). CONCLUSION: The classification of a patient's caries activity based on lesion activity was able to foresee lesion progression on the coronal and root surfaces more susceptible to caries among adults. Clinical relevance Classifying a patient's caries activity is a useful tool for the clinical management of dental caries in adults.

Disease Progression Modeling for Economic Evaluation in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease-A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Globally, 25% of people have nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and, currently, there are no approved pharmacologic treatments for NAFLD. With a slow disease progression, long-term impact of pharmacologic treatments can be assessed only by complementing emerging clinical trial evidence with data from other sources in disease progression modeling. Although this modeling is crucial for economic evaluation studies assessing the clinical and economic consequences of new treatments, the approach to modeling the natural history of NAFLD differs in contemporary research. This systematic literature review investigated modeling of the natural history of NAFLD. METHODS: A systematic literature review was conducted searching PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane, and the National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database to identify articles focusing on modeling of the natural history of NAFLD. Model structure and transition probabilities were extracted from included studies. RESULTS: Of the 28 articles identified, differences were seen in model structure and data input. Clear definitions of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and NAFLD often were lacking; differences in the granularity of modeling fibrosis progression, the approach to disease regression, and modeling of advanced liver disease varied across studies. Observed transition probabilities for F0 to F1, F1 to F2, F2 to F3, and F3 to compensated cirrhosis varied between 0.059 to 0.095, 0.023 to 0.140, 0.018 to 0.070, and 0.040 to 0.118, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The difference in disease progression modeling for seemingly similar models warrants further inquiry regarding how to model the natural course of NAFLD. Such differences may have a large impact when assessing the value of emerging pharmacologic treatments.