Improving the spatial and temporal resolution of burden of disease measures with Bayesian models.

This paper contributes to the field by addressing the critical issue of enhancing the spatial and temporal resolution of health data. Although Bayesian methods are frequently employed to address this challenge in various disciplines, the application of Bayesian spatio-temporal models to burden of disease (BOD) studies remains limited. Our novelty lies in the exploration of two existing Bayesian models that we show to be applicable to a wide range of BOD data, including mortality and prevalence, thereby providing evidence to support the adoption of Bayesian modeling in full BOD studies in the future. We illustrate the benefits of Bayesian modeling with an Australian case study involving asthma and coronary heart disease. Our results showcase the effectiveness of Bayesian approaches in increasing the number of small areas for which results are available and improving the reliability and stability of the results compared to using data directly from surveys or administrative sources.

Deep Learning-Based Assessment of Built Environment From Satellite Images and Cardiometabolic Disease Prevalence.

Importance: Built environment plays an important role in development of cardiovascular disease. Large scale, pragmatic evaluation of built environment has been limited owing to scarce data and inconsistent data quality. Objective: To investigate the association between image-based built environment and the prevalence of cardiometabolic disease in urban cities. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used features extracted from Google satellite images (GSI) to measure the built environment and link them with prevalence of cardiometabolic disease. Convolutional neural networks, light gradient-boosting machines, and activation maps were used to assess the association with health outcomes and identify feature associations with coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and chronic kidney disease (CKD). The study obtained aerial images from GSI covering census tracts in 7 cities (Cleveland, Ohio; Fremont, California; Kansas City, Missouri; Detroit, Michigan; Bellevue, Washington; Brownsville, Texas; and Denver, Colorado). The study used census tract-level data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's 500 Cities project. The data were originally collected from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System that surveyed people 18 years and older across the country. Analyses were conducted from February to December 2022. Exposures: GSI images of built environment and cardiometabolic disease prevalence. Main Outcomes and Measures: Census tract-level estimated prevalence of CHD, stroke, and CKD based on image-based built environment features. Results: The study obtained 31 786 aerial images from GSI covering 789 census tracts. Built environment features extracted from GSI using machine learning were associated with prevalence of CHD (R2 = 0.60), stroke (R2 = 0.65), and CKD (R2 = 0.64). The model performed better at distinguishing differences between cardiometabolic prevalence between cities than within cities (eg, highest within-city R2 = 0.39 vs between-city R2 = 0.64 for CKD). Addition of GSI features both outperformed and improved the model that only included age, sex, race, income, education, and composite indices for social determinants of health (R2 = 0.83 vs R2 = 0.76 for CHD; P <.001). Activation maps from the features revealed certain health-related built environment such as roads, highways, and railroads and recreational facilities such as amusement parks, arenas, and baseball parks. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, a significant portion of cardiometabolic disease prevalence was associated with GSI-based built environment using convolutional neural networks.

A literature review of quality assessment and applicability to HTA of risk prediction models of coronary heart disease in patients with diabetes.

This literature review had two objectives: to identify models for predicting the risk of coronary heart diseases in patients with diabetes (DM); and to assess model quality in terms of risk of bias (RoB) and applicability for the purpose of health technology assessment (HTA). We undertook a targeted review of journal articles published in English, Dutch, Chinese, or Spanish in 5 databases from 1st January 2016 to 18th December 2022, and searched three systematic reviews for the models published after 2012. We used PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool) to assess RoB, and used findings from Betts et al. 2019, which summarized recommendations and criticisms of HTA agencies on cardiovascular risk prediction models, to assess model applicability for the purpose of HTA. As a result, 71 % and 67 % models reporting C-index showed good discrimination abilities (C-index >= 0.7). Of the 26 model studies and 30 models identified, only one model study showed low RoB in all domains, and no model was fully applicable for HTA. Since the major cause of high RoB is inappropriate use of analysis method, we advise clinicians to carefully examine the model performance declared by model developers, and to trust a model if all PROBAST domains except analysis show low RoB and at least one validation study conducted in the same setting (e.g. country) is available. Moreover, since general model applicability is not informative for HTA, novel adapted tools may need to be developed.

Excess morbidity and mortality associated with underuse of estrogen replacement therapy in premenopausal women who undergo surgical menopause.

BACKGROUND: Contrary to clinical guidelines, there has been a decrease over time in estrogen therapy use in premenopausal women undergoing bilateral oophorectomy for benign indications. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to estimate the excess morbidity and mortality associated with current patterns of estrogen therapy use in women who undergo bilateral oophorectomy with hysterectomy for benign indications. STUDY DESIGN: We developed 2 Bayesian sampling Markov state-transition models to estimate the excess disease incidence (incidence model) and mortality (mortality model). The starting cohort for both models were women who had undergone bilateral oophorectomy with hysterectomy for benign indications at the age of 45 to 49 years. The models tracked outcomes in 5-year intervals for 25 years. The incidence model estimated excess incidence of breast cancer, lung cancer, colorectal cancer, coronary heart disease, and stroke, whereas the mortality model estimated excess mortality due to breast cancer, lung cancer, coronary heart disease, and all-other-cause mortality. The models compared current rates of estrogen therapy use with optimal (100%) use and calculated the mean difference in each simulated outcome to determine excess disease incidence and death. RESULTS: By 25 years after bilateral oophorectomy with hysterectomy, there were an estimated 94 (95% confidence interval, -158 to -23) fewer colorectal cancer cases, 658 (95% confidence interval, 339-1025) more coronary heart disease cases, and 881 (95% confidence interval, 402-1483) more stroke cases. By 25 years after bilateral oophorectomy with hysterectomy, there were an estimated 189 (95% confidence interval, 59-387) more breast cancer deaths, 380 (95% confidence interval, 114-792) more coronary heart disease deaths, and 759 (95% confidence interval, 307-1527) more all-other-cause deaths. In sensitivity analyses where we defined estrogen therapy use as a duration of >2 years of use, these differences increased >2-fold. CONCLUSION: Underuse of estrogen therapy in premenopausal women who undergo oophorectomy is associated with substantial excess morbidity and mortality.

How do territorial characteristics affect spatial inequalities in the risk of coronary heart disease?

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of death and disabilities worldwide, with coronary heart diseases being the most frequently diagnosed. Their multifactorial etiology involves individual, behavioral and territorial determinants, and thus requires the implementation of multidimensional approaches to assess links between territorial characteristics and the incidence of coronary heart diseases. CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVES: This study was carried out in a densely populated area located in the north of France with multiple sources of pollutants. The aim of this research was therefore to establish complex territorial profiles that have been characterized by the standardized incidence, thereby identifying the influences of determinants that can be related to a beneficial or a deleterious effect on cardiovascular health. METHODS: Forty-four variables related to economic, social, health, environment and services dimensions with an established or suspected impact on cardiovascular health were used to describe the multidimensional characteristics involved in cardiovascular health. RESULTS: Three complex territorial profiles have been highlighted and characterized by the standardized incidence rate (SIR) of coronary heart diseases after adjustment for age and gender. Profile 1 was characterized by an SIR of 0.895 (sd: 0.143) and a higher number of determinants that revealed favorable territorial conditions. Profiles 2 and 3 were characterized by SIRs of respectively 1.225 (sd: 0.242) and 1.119 (sd: 0.273). Territorial characteristics among these profiles of over-incidence were nevertheless dissimilar. Profile 2 revealed higher deprivation, lower vegetation and lower atmospheric pollution, while profile 3 displayed a rather privileged population with contrasted territorial conditions. CONCLUSION: This methodology permitted the characterization of the multidimensional determinants involved in cardiovascular health, whether they have a negative or a positive impact, and could provide stakeholders with a diagnostic tool to implement contextualized public health policies to prevent coronary heart diseases.

Association of Pretransplant Coronary Heart Disease Testing With Early Kidney Transplant Outcomes.

Importance: Testing for coronary heart disease (CHD) in asymptomatic kidney transplant candidates before transplant is widespread and endorsed by various professional societies, but its association with perioperative outcomes is unclear. Objective: To estimate the association of pretransplant CHD testing with rates of death and myocardial infarction (MI). Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study included all adult, first-time kidney transplant recipients from January 2000 through December 2014 in the US Renal Data System with at least 1 year of Medicare enrollment before and after transplant. An instrumental variable (IV) analysis was used, with the program-level CHD testing rate in the year of the transplant as the IV. Analyses were stratified by study period, as the rate of CHD testing varied over time. A combination of US Renal Data System variables and Medicare claims was used to ascertain exposure, IV, covariates, and outcomes. Exposures: Receipt of nonurgent invasive or noninvasive CHD testing during the 12 months preceding kidney transplant. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was a composite of death or acute MI within 30 days of after kidney transplant. Results: The cohort comprised 79 334 adult, first-time kidney transplant recipients (30 147 women [38%]; 25 387 [21%] Black and 48 394 [61%] White individuals; mean [SD] age of 56 [14] years during 2012 to 2014). The primary outcome occurred in 4604 patients (244 [5.3%]; 120 [2.6%] death, 134 [2.9%] acute MI). During the most recent study period (2012-2014), the CHD testing rate was 56% in patients in the most test-intensive transplant programs (fifth IV quintile) and 24% in patients at the least test-intensive transplant program (first IV quintile, P < .001); this pattern was similar across other study periods. In the main IV analysis, compared with no testing, CHD testing was not associated with a change in the rate of primary outcome (rate difference, 1.9%; 95% CI, 0%-3.5%). The results were similar across study periods, except for 2000 to 2003, during which CHD testing was associated with a higher event rate (rate difference, 6.8%; 95% CI, 1.8%-12.0%). Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this cohort study suggest that pretransplant CHD testing was not associated with a reduction in early posttransplant death or acute MI. The study findings potentially challenge the ubiquity of CHD testing before kidney transplant and should be confirmed in interventional studies.

Identifying and comparing low-value care recommendations for coronary heart disease prevention, diagnosis, and treatment in the US and China.

BACKGROUND: Low-value care provides little or no benefit, causes harm and incurs unnecessary costs. Low-value care for coronary heart disease (CHD) is particularly prevalent in the US and China. Identifying low-value care services is the first step in reducing these services. There is currently limited data on identifying a comprehensive CHD low-value care list in the US and China. We aimed to identify and compare low-value care recommendations for CHD prevention, diagnosis, and treatment in the US and China. METHODS: Clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) related to CHD in the US and China were screened for do-not-do recommendations stating that specific services should be avoided. The similarities and discrepancies of low-value care recommendations for CHD between the two countries were then compared. RESULTS: We found a total of 38 low-value care recommendations in 6 Chinese CPGs and 98 recommendations in 11 US CPGs. In the US, the most common types of low-value care recommendations were therapeutic medications (44, 44.9%), followed by therapeutic procedures (27, 27.6%), diagnostic imaging (16, 16.3%), diagnostic testing (9, 9.2%) and primary prevention (2, 2.0%). In China, the most common types were therapeutic medications (18, 47.4%), followed by therapeutic procedures (13, 34.2%), diagnostic testing (4, 10.5%), and diagnostic imaging (3, 7.9%). CONCLUSION: In this study, a comprehensive list of low-value care for CHD in the US and China was established and potentially become the important targets for de-implementation for both countries. The findings may have important implications for other countries, especially low-and middle-income countries, to reduce low-value care for CHD.

Endothelial Nitric Oxide Synthase T-786C and G-894T Gene Polymorphisms: A Risk Assessment of Coronary Heart Disease.

INTRODUCTION: The polymorphism of the endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) gene is thought to enhance the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). The most protruding reason for endothelial dysfunction is the diminished production of NO. In the eNOS encoding gene, a number of mutations were associated with decreased NO effect promoting the presence of CHD. AIM: This study aims to look at the role of polymorphisms in the eNOS genes G-894T and T-786C in young South Indians. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From January 2022 to May 2022, 91 angiographically proven CHD subjects attending the Department of Cardiology and Medicine and 91 controls from a master health checkup in the age group of 45 years participated in this observational cross-sectional study at SRM Medical College Hospital and Research Centre in Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India. Overnight fasting plasma samples were taken for analysis of the lipid profile as well as NO by Griess reaction utilizing an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) technique. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and restricted fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) were used to amplify the T-786C and G-894T eNOS genes. RESULTS: When compared to controls, the mean level of serum NO in CHD patients was considerably lower. For eNOS T-786C polymorphism, the distribution of TC genotype (p = 0.017), odds (OD) ratio = 2.1, CC genotype (p = 0.011), OD ratio = 3.75, and minor C allele frequency (p = 0.001). And for eNOS G-894T polymorphism, the distribution of GT genotype (p = 0.01), TT genotype (p =0.02) with OD ratio and minor T allele frequency (p = 0.002) with OD ratio = 1.07 and 0.83. CONCLUSION: Our study concludes that the polymorphism of eNOS T-786C and G-894T genes may be the main causative association for the presence of CHD. How to cite this article: Jaishankar T, Shivasekar M, Vinodhini VM. Endothelial Nitric Oxide Synthase T-786C and G-894T Gene Polymorphisms: A Risk Assessment of Coronary Heart Disease. J Assoc Physicians India 2023;71(9):45-50.

Legume Intake Is Associated with Potential Savings in Coronary Heart Disease-Related Health Care Costs in Australia.

Legume intake has been associated with lower risk for a number of chronic disorders of high financial burden, and is advocated by dietary guidelines as an important part of healthy dietary patterns. Still, the intake of legumes generally falls short of the recommended levels in most countries around the world despite their role as an alternative protein source. The aim of this study was to assess the potential savings in costs of health care services that would follow the reduction in incidences of coronary heart disease (CHD) when adult consumers achieve a targeted level of 50 g/day of legumes intake in Australia. A cost-of-illness analysis was developed using estimates of current and targeted legumes intake in adults (age 25+ y), the estimated percent reduction in relative risk (95% CI) of CHD following legumes intake, and recent data on health care costs related to CHD in Australia. A sensitivity analysis of 'very pessimistic' through to 'universal' scenarios suggested savings in CHD-related health care costs equal to AUD 4.3 (95% CI 1.2-7.4) to AUD 85.5 (95% CI 23.3-147.7) million annually. Findings of the study suggest an economic value of incorporating attainable levels of legumes within the dietary behaviors of Australians. Greater prominence of legumes in dietary guidelines could assist with achieving broader sustainability measures in relation to diet, helping to bring together the environment and health as an important pillar in relation to sustainability.

Estimating the causal effect of liability to disease on healthcare costs using Mendelian Randomization.

Accurate measurement of the effects of disease status on healthcare costs is important in the pragmatic evaluation of interventions but is complicated by endogeneity bias. Mendelian Randomization, the use of random perturbations in germline genetic variation as instrumental variables, can avoid these limitations. We used a novel Mendelian Randomization analysis to model the causal impact on inpatient hospital costs of liability to six prevalent diseases and health conditions: asthma, eczema, migraine, coronary heart disease, Type 2 diabetes, and depression. We identified genetic variants from replicated genome-wide associations studies and estimated their association with inpatient hospital costs on over 300,000 individuals. There was concordance of findings across varieties of sensitivity analyses, including stratification by sex and methods robust to violations of the exclusion restriction. Results overall were imprecise and we could not rule out large effects of liability to disease on healthcare costs. In particular, genetic liability to coronary heart disease had substantial impacts on costs.

Assessment of Remnant Lipoprotein Cholesterol and Oxidized Low density Lipoprotein Associated with Low-grade Inflammation in Coronary Heart Disease Subjects of Young South Indian Population.

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD) is a major disease entity responsible for significant mortality and morbidity in the Indian population. The prevalence of CHD is increasing day by day in India. The hardening of arteries is linked to oxidative variations in low-density lipoproteins (LDLs). Modification of LDL to oxidized LDL (ox-LDL) is a crucial step in the oxidation hypothesis of atherogenesis. Oxidized LDL and remnant lipoprotein cholesterol (RLP-C) stimulate the immune and inflammatory reactions and promote atherosclerosis. Because of its lesser size along with high cholesterol content, and increased residence period in blood the remnant lipoproteins are highly atherogenic. Remnant lipoproteins transport more cholesterol to macrophages compared to LDL particles. Remnant lipoproteins enter into the arterial wall easily and are taken up directly by macrophages. This leads to the formation of foam cells, thus initiating the lipid-laden plaque. High sensitive C-reactive protein acts as a nonspecific inflammatory marker. Oxidized LDL along with RLP-C and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) play crucial role in progression of CHD. AIM OF THE STUDY: The aim of the study is to assess ox-LDL and RLP-C associated with hs-CRP as potential biomarkers in the development of CHD. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted in Sri Ramaswamy Memorial Medical College Hospital and Research Centre on subjects appearing for master health check-up and medicine. This cross-sectional study was conducted on 273 subjects who were age and sex match in the age group of ≤45 years. 91 Non-Diabetic subjects with CHD, 91 Diabetic subjects with CHD, and 91 normal healthy subjects were selected as control. After overnight fasting, body fluid samples were collected for analysis for lipid profile, ox-LDL, and hs-CRP. Oxidized LDL and hs-CRP were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) method and lipid profile was measured using Auto Analyser AU480. Statistical analysis was done using Student's t-test and Pearson's correlation analysis for the comparison between two groups. RESULTS: The mean level of ox-LDL, RLP-C, and hs-CRP was significantly elevated in CHD group. A significantly positive correlation was observed between plasma ox-LDL, RLP-C, and hs-CRP. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that the link between high ox-LDL, RLP-C, and hs-CRP levels might be interrelated to atherogenesis in subjects with CHD. In addition to conventional parameters, ox-LDL, RLP-C, and hs-CRP can prove to be a valuable tool in risk assessment of CHD. Journal of the Association of Physicians of India (2022): 10.5005/japi-11001-0009.

Impact of Tobacco Smoking on Health Care Utilization and Medical Costs in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, Coronary Heart Disease and Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact of smoking on disease-specific health care utilization and medical costs in patients with chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs). METHODS: Participants were middle-aged and elderly adults with chronic NCDs from a prospective cohort in China. Logistic regressions and linear models were used to assess the relationship between tobacco smoking, health care utilization and medical costs. RESULTS: Totally, 1020 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), 3144 patients with coronary heart disease (CHD), and 1405 patients with diabetes were included in the analysis. Among patients with COPD, current smokers (ß: 0.030, 95% CI: -0.032-0.092) and former smokers (ß: 0.072, 95% CI: 0.014-0.131) had 3.0% and 7.2% higher total medical costs than never smokers. Medical costs of patients who had smoked for 21-40 years (ß: 0.028, 95% CI:-0.038-0.094) and ≥41 years (ß: 0.053, 95% CI: -0.004ß0.110) were higher than those of never smokers. Patients who smoked ≥21 cigarettes (ß: 0.145, 95% CI: 0.051-0.239) per day had more inpatient visits than never smokers. The association between smoking and health care utilization and medical costs in people with CHD group was similar to that in people with COPD; however, there were no significant associations in people with diabetes. CONCLUSION: This study reveals that the impact of smoking on health care utilization and medical costs varies among patients with COPD, CHD, and diabetes. Tobacco control might be more effective at reducing the burden of disease for patients with COPD and CHD than for patients with diabetes.

Education inequalities in cardiovascular and coronary heart disease in Italy and the role of behavioral and biological risk factors.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Behavioral and biological risk factors (BBRF) explain part of the variability in socioeconomic differences in health. The present study aimed at evaluating education differences in incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and coronary heart disease (CHD) in Italy and the role of BBRF. METHODS AND RESULTS: All subjects aged 30-74 years (n = 132,686) who participated to the National Health Interview Surveys 2000 and 2005 were included and followed-up for ten years. Exposure to smoking, physical activity, overweight/obesity, diabetes and hypertension at baseline was considered. Education level was used as an indicator of socioeconomic status. The outcomes were incident cases of CVD and CHD. Hazard ratios by education level were estimated, adjusting for sociodemographic covariates and stratifying by sex and geographic area. The contribution of BBRF to education inequalities was estimated by counterfactual mediation analysis, in addition to the assessment of the risk attenuation by comparing the models including BBRF or not. 22,214 participants had a CVD event and 6173 a CHD event. After controlling for sociodemographic factors, the least educated men showed a 21% higher risk of CVD and a 17% higher risk of CHD compared to the most educated (41% and 61% among women). The mediating effect (natural indirect effect) of BBRF between extreme education levels was 52% for CVD and 84% for CHD among men (16% among women for CVD). CONCLUSIONS: More effective strategies aiming at reducing socioeconomic disparities in CVD and CHD are needed, through programs targeting less educated people in combination with community-wide initiatives.

The impact of clinical and population strategies on coronary heart disease mortality: an assessment of Rose's big idea.

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD), the leading cause of death worldwide, has declined in many affluent countries but it continues to rise in industrializing countries. OBJECTIVE: To quantify the relative contribution of the clinical and population strategies to the decline in CHD mortality in affluent countries. DESIGN: Meta-analysis of cross-sectional and prospective studies. DATA SOURCES: PubMed and Web of Science from January 1, 1970 to December 31, 2019. METHOD: We combined and analyzed data from 22 cross-sectional and prospective studies, representing 500 million people, to quantify the relative decline in CHD mortality attributable to the clinical strategy and population strategy. RESULT: The population strategy accounted for 48% (range = 19 to 73%) of the decline in CHD deaths and the clinical strategy accounted for 42% (range = 25 to 56%), with moderate inconsistency of results across studies. CONCLUSION: Since 1970, a larger fraction of the decline in CHD deaths in industrialized countries was attributable to reduction in CHD risk factors than medical care. Population strategies, which are more cost-effective than clinical strategies, are under-utilized.

Disparities in Secondary Prevention between Stroke and Coronary Heart Disease in China: Cross-Sectional Community-Based Study, 2014-2016.

BACKGROUND: Health care quality and insurance coverage have improved with economic development in China, but the burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) continues to increase with ongoing gaps in prevention. We aimed to compare the uptake of secondary CVD prevention between stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD) patients in China. METHODS: In a cross-sectional community-based survey of 47,841 adults (age ≥45 years) in 7 regions of China between 2014 and 2016, we identified those with a history of stroke or CHD to quantify disparities in conventional secondary CVD prevention strategies in multivariable logistic regression models. RESULTS: There were 4,105 and 1,022 participants with a history of stroke and CHD, respectively. Compared to participants with CHD, those with a history of stroke were significantly less likely to be taking blood-pressure-lowering (39.7% vs. 53%), lipid-lowering (13.7% vs. 36.8%), and antiplatelet (20.8% vs. 50.6%) agents, at least one (48.9% vs. 70.8%) or all 3 recommended medicines (6.1% vs. 24.0%), and were less likely to achieve a lipid-cholesterol target (30.3% vs. 44.0%). Participants with a history of stroke achieved less optimal secondary prevention goals for medication use, either from any (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.44-0.66) or all 3 medications (aOR 0.27, 95% CI 0.20-0.36), as well as better blood pressure (aOR 0.81, 95% CI 0.66-0.98) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (aOR 0.34, 95% CI 0.27-0.43) levels of control. There were no significant differences in weight, smoking, or physical activity between the groups. CONCLUSION: Stroke patients had lower use of secondary CVD-preventive medication and achieved lower levels of risk factor control than those of CHD patients in China. Nationwide disease-specific strategies, and better education of participants and health care providers, may narrow these gaps.

Risk for ischemic stroke and coronary heart disease associated with migraine and migraine medication among older adults.

BACKGROUND: Migraine has been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) events among middle-aged adults. The objective of this study was to determine the risk for ischemic stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD) events among older adults with versus without migraine. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from US adults ≥66 years of age with Medicare health insurance between 2008 and 2017. After stratification by history of CVD, patients with a history of migraine were matched 1:4 to those without a history of migraine, based on calendar year, age, and sex. Patients were followed through December 31, 2017 for ischemic stroke and CHD events including myocardial infarction or coronary revascularization. All analyses were done separately for patients with and without a history of CVD. RESULTS: Among patients without a history of CVD (n = 109,950 including n = 21,990 with migraine and n = 87,960 without migraine), 1789 had an ischemic stroke and 3552 had a CHD event. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) among patients with versus without migraine was 1.20 (95% confidence interval [95%CI], 1.07-1.35) for ischemic stroke and 1.02 (95%CI, 0.93-1.11) for CHD events. Compared to patients without migraine, those with migraine who were taking an opioid medication had a higher risk for ischemic stroke (adjusted HR 1.43 [95%CI, 1.20-1.69]), while those taking a triptan had a lower risk for CHD events (adjusted HR 0.79 [95%CI, 0.67-0.93]). Among patients with a history of CVD (n = 79,515 including n = 15,903 with migraine and n = 63,612 without migraine), 2960 had an ischemic stroke and 7981 had a CHD event. The adjusted HRs (95%CI) for ischemic stroke and CHD events associated with migraine were 1.27 (1.17-1.39) and 0.99 (0.93-1.05), respectively. Patients with migraine taking an opioid medication had a higher risk for ischemic stroke (adjusted HR 1.21 [95%CI, 1.07-1.36]), while those taking a triptan had a lower risk for CHD events (adjusted HR 0.83 [95%CI, 0.72-0.95]), each versus those without migraine. CONCLUSIONS: Older adults with migraine are at increased risk for ischemic stroke. The risk for ischemic stroke among older adults with migraine may differ by migraine medication classes.

SARS-CoV-2 infection and cardiovascular or pulmonary complications in ambulatory care: A risk assessment based on routine data.

BACKGROUND: Risk factors of severe COVID-19 have mainly been investigated in the hospital setting. We investigated pre-defined risk factors for testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection and cardiovascular or pulmonary complications in the outpatient setting. METHODS: The present cohort study makes use of ambulatory claims data of statutory health insurance physicians in Bavaria, Germany, with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test confirmed or excluded SARS-CoV-2 infection in first three quarters of 2020. Statistical modelling and machine learning were used for effect estimation and for hypothesis testing of risk factors, and for prognostic modelling of cardiovascular or pulmonary complications. RESULTS: A cohort of 99 811 participants with PCR test was identified. In a fully adjusted multivariable regression model, dementia (odds ratio (OR) = 1.36), type 2 diabetes (OR = 1.14) and obesity (OR = 1.08) were identified as significantly associated with a positive PCR test result. Significant risk factors for cardiovascular or pulmonary complications were coronary heart disease (CHD) (OR = 2.58), hypertension (OR = 1.65), tobacco consumption (OR = 1.56), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (OR = 1.53), previous pneumonia (OR = 1.53), chronic kidney disease (CKD) (OR = 1.25) and type 2 diabetes (OR = 1.23). Three simple decision rules derived from prognostic modelling based on age, hypertension, CKD, COPD and CHD were able to identify high risk patients with a sensitivity of 74.8% and a specificity of 80.0%. CONCLUSIONS: The decision rules achieved a high prognostic accuracy non-inferior to complex machine learning methods. They might help to identify patients at risk, who should receive special attention and intensified protection in ambulatory care.

The impact of coronary heart disease prevention on work productivity: a 10-year analysis.

AIMS: To determine the impact of preventing new (incident) cases of coronary heart disease (CHD) on years of life and productivity, using the novel measure 'productivity-adjusted life year' (PALY), over the next 10 years. METHODS AND RESULTS: A dynamic life table model was constructed for the total Australian working-age population (15-69 years) over 10 years (2020-2029), separated by CHD status. Productivity estimates were sourced from the literature. The PALY was ascribed a financial value in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) per equivalent full-time worker. The total number of years lived, PALYs, and economic burden (in terms of GDP per PALY) were estimated. The model simulation was repeated assuming incidence was reduced, and the differences represented the impact of CHD prevention. All outcomes were discounted by 5% per annum. Over 10 years, the total projected years lived and PALYs in the Australian working-age population (with and without CHD) were 133 million and 83 million, respectively, amounting to A$17.2 trillion in GDP. We predicted more than 290 000 new (incident) CHD cases over the next 10 years. If all new cases of CHD could be prevented during this period, a total of 4 000 deaths could be averted, resulting in more than 8 000 years of life saved and 104 000 PALYs gained, equivalent to a gain of nearly A$21.8 billion (US$14.8 billion) in GDP. CONCLUSION: Prevention of CHD will prolong years of life lived and productive life years, resulting in substantial economic benefit. Policy makers and employers are encouraged to engage in preventive measures addressing CHD.