Global colorectal cancer research, 2007-2021: Outputs and funding.

The purpose of this study was to provide an evidence base for colorectal cancer research activity that might influence policy, mainly at the national level. Improvements in healthcare delivery have lengthened life expectancy, but within a situation of increased cancer incidence. The disease burden of CRC has risen significantly, particularly in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Research is key to its control and reduction, but few studies have delineated the volume and funding of global research on CRC. We identified research papers in the Web of Science (WoS) from 2007 to 2021, and determined the contributions of the leading countries, the research domains studied, and their sources of funding. We identified 62 716 papers, representing 5.7% of all cancer papers. This percentage was somewhat disproportionate to the disease burden (7.7% in 2015), especially in Eastern Europe. International collaboration increased over the time period in almost all countries except in China. Genetics, surgery and prognosis were the leading research domains. However, research on palliative care and quality-of-life in CRC was lacking. In Western Europe, the main funding source was the charity sector, particularly in the UK, but in most other countries government played the leading role, especially in China and the USA. There was little support from industry. Several Asian countries provided minimal contestable funding, which may have reduced the impact of their CRC research. Certain countries must perform more CRC research overall, especially in domains such as screening, palliative care and quality-of-life. The private-non-profit sector should be an alternative source of support.

Lack of an association between gallstone disease and bilirubin levels with risk of colorectal cancer: a Mendelian randomisation analysis.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies of the relationship between gallstone disease and circulating levels of bilirubin with risk of developing colorectal cancer (CRC) have been inconsistent. To address possible confounding and reverse causation, we examine the relationship between these potential risk factors and CRC using Mendelian randomisation (MR). METHODS: We used two-sample MR to examine the relationship between genetic liability to gallstone disease and circulating levels of bilirubin with CRC in 26,397 patients and 41,481 controls. We calculated the odds ratio per genetically predicted SD unit increase in log bilirubin levels (ORSD) for CRC and tested for a non-zero causal effect of gallstones on CRC. Sensitivity analysis was applied to identify violations of estimator assumptions. RESULTS: No association between either gallstone disease (P value = 0.60) or circulating levels of bilirubin (ORSD = 1.00, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.96-1.03, P value = 0.90) with CRC was shown. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the large scale of this study, we found no evidence for a causal relationship between either circulating levels of bilirubin or gallstone disease with risk of developing CRC. While the magnitude of effect suggested by some observational studies can confidently be excluded, we cannot exclude the possibility of smaller effect sizes and non-linear relationships.

Circulating biomarkers and outcomes from a randomised phase 2 trial of gemcitabine versus capecitabine-based chemoradiotherapy for pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND: The Phase 2 SCALOP trial compared gemcitabine with capecitabine-based consolidation chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC). METHODS: Thirty-five systematically identified circulating biomarkers were analysed in plasma samples from 60 patients enroled in SCALOP. Each was measured in triplicate at baseline (prior to three cycles of gemcitabine-capecitabine induction chemotherapy) and, for a subset, prior to CRT. Association with overall survival (OS) was determined using univariable Cox regression and optimal thresholds delineating low to high values identified using time-dependent ROC curves. Independence from known prognostic factors was assessed using Spearman correlation and the Wilcoxon rank sum test prior to multivariable Cox regression modelling including independent biomarkers and known prognostic factors. RESULTS: Baseline circulating levels of C-C motif chemokine ligand 5 (CCL5) were significantly associated with OS, independent of other clinicopathological characteristics. Patients with low circulating CCL5 (CCL5low) had a median OS of 18.5 (95% CI 11.76-21.32) months compared to 11.3 (95% CI 9.86-15.51) months in CCL5high; hazard ratio 1.95 (95% CI 1.04-8.65; p = 0.037). CONCLUSIONS: CCL5 is an independent prognostic biomarker in LAPC. Given the known role of CCL5 in tumour invasion, metastasis and the induction of an immunosuppressive micro-environment, targeting of CCL5-mediated pathways may offer therapeutic potential in pancreatic cancer. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: The SCALOP trial was registered with ISRCTN, number 96169987 (registered 29 May 2008).

Molecular subtype-specific efficacy of anti-EGFR therapy in colorectal cancer is dependent on the chemotherapy backbone.

BACKGROUND: Patient selection for addition of anti-EGFR therapy to chemotherapy for patients with RAS and BRAF wildtype metastatic colorectal cancer can still be optimised. Here we investigate the effect of anti-EGFR therapy on survival in different consensus molecular subtypes (CMSs) and stratified by primary tumour location. METHODS: Retrospective analyses, using the immunohistochemistry-based CMS classifier, were performed in the COIN (first-line oxaliplatin backbone with or without cetuximab) and PICCOLO trial (second-line irinotecan with or without panitumumab). Tumour tissue was available for 323 patients (20%) and 349 (41%), respectively. RESULTS: When using an irinotecan backbone, anti-EGFR therapy is effective in both CMS2/3 and CMS4 in left-sided primary tumours (progression-free survival (PFS): HR 0.44, 95% CI 0.26-0.75, P = 0.003 and HR 0.12, 95% CI 0.04-0.36, P < 0.001, respectively) and in CMS4 right-sided tumours (PFS HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.04-0.71, P = 0.02). Efficacy using an oxaliplatin backbone was restricted to left-sided CMS2/3 tumours (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.36-0.96, P = 0.034). CONCLUSIONS: The subtype-specific efficacy of anti-EGFR therapy is dependent on the chemotherapy backbone. This may provide the possibility of subtype-specific treatment strategies for a more optimal use of anti-EGFR therapy.

Stromal composition predicts recurrence of early rectal cancer after local excision.

AIMS: After local excision of early rectal cancer, definitive lymph node status is not available. An alternative means for accurate assessment of recurrence risk is required to determine the most appropriate subsequent management. Currently used measures are suboptimal. We assess three measures of tumour stromal content to determine their predictive value after local excision in a well-characterised cohort of rectal cancer patients without prior radiotherapy. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 143 patients were included. Haematoxylin and eosin (H&E) sections were scanned for (i) deep neural network (DNN, a machine-learning algorithm) tumour segmentation into compartments including desmoplastic stroma and inflamed stroma; and (ii) digital assessment of tumour stromal fraction (TSR) and optical DNA ploidy analysis. 3' mRNA sequencing was performed to obtain gene expression data from which stromal and immune scores were calculated using the ESTIMATE method. Full results were available for 139 samples and compared with disease-free survival. All three methods were prognostic. Most strongly predictive was a DNN-determined ratio of desmoplastic to inflamed stroma >5.41 (P < 0.0001). A ratio of ESTIMATE stromal to immune score <1.19 was also predictive of disease-free survival (P = 0.00051), as was stromal fraction >36.5% (P = 0.037). CONCLUSIONS: The DNN-determined ratio of desmoplastic to inflamed ratio is a novel and powerful predictor of disease recurrence in locally excised early rectal cancer. It can be assessed on a single H&E section, so could be applied in routine clinical practice to improve the prognostic information available to patients and clinicians to inform the decision concerning further management.

Immune status is prognostic for poor survival in colorectal cancer patients and is associated with tumour hypoxia.

BACKGROUND: Immunohistochemical quantification of the immune response is prognostic for colorectal cancer (CRC). Here, we evaluate the suitability of alternative immune classifiers on prognosis and assess whether they relate to biological features amenable to targeted therapy. METHODS: Overall survival by immune (CD3, CD4, CD8, CD20 and FOXP3) and immune-checkpoint (ICOS, IDO-1 and PD-L1) biomarkers in independent CRC cohorts was evaluated. Matched mutational and transcriptomic data were interrogated to identify associated biology. RESULTS: Determination of immune-cold tumours by combined low-density cell counts of CD3, CD4 and CD8 immunohistochemistry constituted the best prognosticator across stage II-IV CRC, particularly in patients with stage IV disease (HR 1.98 [95% CI: 1.47-2.67]). These immune-cold CRCs were associated with tumour hypoxia, confirmed using CAIX immunohistochemistry (P = 0.0009), which may mediate disease progression through common biology (KRAS mutations, CRIS-B subtype and SPP1 mRNA overexpression). CONCLUSIONS: Given the significantly poorer survival of immune-cold CRC patients, these data illustrate that assessment of CD4-expressing cells complements low CD3 and CD8 immunohistochemical quantification in the tumour bulk, potentially facilitating immunophenotyping of patient biopsies to predict prognosis. In addition, we found immune-cold CRCs to associate with a difficult-to-treat, poor prognosis hypoxia signature, indicating that these patients may benefit from hypoxia-targeting clinical trials.

A phase II open label, randomised study of ipilimumab with temozolomide versus temozolomide alone after surgery and chemoradiotherapy in patients with recently diagnosed glioblastoma: the Ipi-Glio trial protocol.

BACKGROUND: Median survival for patients with glioblastoma is less than a year. Standard treatment consists of surgical debulking if feasible followed by temozolomide chemo-radiotherapy. The immune checkpoint inhibitor ipilimumab targets cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated protein 4 (CTLA-4) and has shown clinical efficacy in preclinical models of glioblastoma. The aim of this study is to explore the addition of ipilimumab to standard therapy in patients with glioblastoma. METHODS/DESIGN: Ipi-Glio is a phase II, open label, randomised study of ipilimumab with temozolomide (Arm A) versus temozolomide alone (Arm B) after surgery and chemoradiotherapy in patients with recently diagnosed glioblastoma. Planned accrual is 120 patients (Arm A: 80, Arm B: 40). Endpoints include overall survival, 18-month survival, 5-year survival, and adverse events. The trial is currently recruiting in seven centres in the United Kingdom. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN84434175. Registered 12 November 2018.

Standardising RNA profiling based biomarker application in cancer-The need for robust control of technical variables.

Histopathology-based staging of colorectal cancer (CRC) has utility in assessing the prognosis of patient subtypes, but as yet cannot accurately predict individual patient's treatment response. Transcriptomics approaches, using array based or next generation sequencing (NGS) platforms, of formalin fixed paraffin embedded tissue can be harnessed to develop multi-gene biomarkers for predicting both prognosis and treatment response, leading to stratification of treatment. While transcriptomics can shape future biomarker development, currently <1% of published biomarkers become clinically validated tests, often due to poor study design or lack of independent validation. In this review of a large number of CRC transcriptional studies, we identify recurrent sources of technical variability that encompass collection, preservation and storage of malignant tissue, nucleic acid extraction, methods to quantitate RNA transcripts and data analysis pipelines. We propose a series of defined steps for removal of these confounding issues, to ultimately aid in the development of more robust clinical biomarkers.

Prospective patient stratification into robust cancer-cell intrinsic subtypes from colorectal cancer biopsies.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) biopsies underpin accurate diagnosis, but are also relevant for patient stratification in molecularly-guided clinical trials. The consensus molecular subtypes (CMSs) and colorectal cancer intrinsic subtypes (CRISs) transcriptional signatures have potential clinical utility for improving prognostic/predictive patient assignment. However, their ability to provide robust classification, particularly in pretreatment biopsies from multiple regions or at different time points, remains untested. In this study, we undertook a comprehensive assessment of the robustness of CRC transcriptional signatures, including CRIS and CMS, using a range of tumour sampling methodologies currently employed in clinical and translational research. These include analyses using (i) laser-capture microdissected CRC tissue, (ii) eight publically available rectal cancer biopsy data sets (n = 543), (iii) serial biopsies (from AXEBeam trial, NCT00828672; n = 10), (iv) multi-regional biopsies from colon tumours (n = 29 biopsies, n = 7 tumours), and (v) pretreatment biopsies from the phase II rectal cancer trial COPERNCIUS (NCT01263171; n = 44). Compared to previous results obtained using CRC resection material, we demonstrate that CMS classification in biopsy tissue is significantly less capable of reliably classifying patient subtype (43% unknown in biopsy versus 13% unknown in resections, p = 0.0001). In contrast, there was no significant difference in classification rate between biopsies and resections when using the CRIS classifier. Additionally, we demonstrated that CRIS provides significantly better spatially- and temporally- robust classification of molecular subtypes in CRC primary tumour tissue compared to CMS (p = 0.003 and p = 0.02, respectively). These findings have potential to inform ongoing biopsy-based patient stratification in CRC, enabling robust and stable assignment of patients into clinically-informative arms of prospective multi-arm, multi-stage clinical trials. © 2018 The Authors. The Journal of Pathology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland.

Genome-wide association study and meta-analysis in Northern European populations replicate multiple colorectal cancer risk loci.

Genome-wide association studies have been successful in elucidating the genetic basis of colorectal cancer (CRC), but there remains unexplained variability in genetic risk. To identify new risk variants and to confirm reported associations, we conducted a genome-wide association study in 1,701 CRC cases and 14,082 cancer-free controls from the Finnish population. A total of 9,068,015 genetic variants were imputed and tested, and 30 promising variants were studied in additional 11,647 cases and 12,356 controls of European ancestry. The previously reported association between the single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs992157 (2q35) and CRC was independently replicated (p = 2.08 × 10-4 ; OR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.06-1.23), and it was genome-wide significant in combined analysis (p = 1.50 × 10-9 ; OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.08-1.16). Variants at 2q35, 6p21.2, 8q23.3, 8q24.21, 10q22.3, 10q24.2, 11q13.4, 11q23.1, 14q22.2, 15q13.3, 18q21.1, 20p12.3 and 20q13.33 were associated with CRC in the Finnish population (false discovery rate < 0.1), but new risk loci were not found. These results replicate the effects of multiple loci on the risk of CRC and identify shared risk alleles between the Finnish population isolate and outbred populations.

A prospective phase II study of pre-operative chemotherapy then short-course radiotherapy for high risk rectal cancer: COPERNICUS.

BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) allows earlier treatment of rectal cancer micro-metastases but is not standard of care. There are currently no biomarkers predicting long-term progression-free survival (PFS) benefit from NAC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this single arm phase II trial, patients with non-metastatic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-defined operable rectal adenocarcinoma at high risk of post-operative metastatic recurrence, received 8 weeks of oxaliplatin/fluorouracil NAC then short-course preoperative radiotherapy (SCPRT) before immediate surgery. Sixteen weeks of post-operative adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) was planned. A pelvic MRI was performed at week 9 immediately post-NAC, before SCPRT. The primary end point was feasibility assessed by completion of protocol treatment up to and including surgery. Secondary endpoints included compliance, toxicity, downstaging efficacy, and PFS. RESULTS: In total 60 patients were recruited May 2012-June 2014. In total 57 patients completed protocol treatment, meeting the primary endpoint. Compliance with NAC was much better than AC: Comparing NAC vs. AC, the median percentage dose intensity for fluoropyrimidine was 100% vs. 63% and for oxaliplatin 100% vs. 45%. Treatment-related toxicity was acceptable with no treatment-related deaths. Post-NAC MRI showed 44 tumours (73%) were T-downstaged and 22 (37%) had excellent MRI tumour regression grade (mrTRG 1-2). Median follow-up was 27 months with 2-year PFS of 86.2% (10 events). On exploratory analysis, post-NAC mrTRG predicted PFS with no event among those with excellent regression. CONCLUSION: The regimen was well tolerated with effective downstaging and encouraging PFS. mrTRG response to NAC may be a new prognostic factor for long-term PFS, but needs validation in larger studies.

Derived neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio as a prognostic factor in patients with advanced colorectal cancer according to RAS and BRAF status: a post-hoc analysis of the MRC COIN study.

The phase III Continuous or Intermittent (COIN) trial failed to show a benefit in overall survival (OS) of cetuximab in combination with chemotherapy for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. High derived neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (dNLR) has been shown to be prognostic in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. The aim of this analysis is to evaluate dNLR as a predictive biomarker of the survival according to RAS and BRAF mutations status within the COIN trial. A post-hoc exploratory analysis of the COIN trial arms A and B was carried out. All patients with available white blood cell and neutrophil data were analysed. The dNLR was calculated using a formula that has previously shown predictive power in cancer patients: dNLR=ANC/(WBC-ANC). A high dNLR was defined as a value of 2.2 or more. dNLR was correlated with clinical outcomes using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis. A total of 1603 patients were assigned to the oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy (arm A, N=815) or oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy plus cetuximab (arm B, N=815) arms. There was a strong association between dNLR level and overall survival (OS) using Kaplan-Meier analysis. In all mutation groups, dNLR less than 2.2 was associated with better OS compared to dNLR of 2.2 or more. The median OS in patients with wild-type disease (dNLR<2.2 vs. dNLR≥2.2) was 22.8 versus 13.1 months [hazard ratio (HR)=1.33]; 16.9 versus 11.8 months (HR=1.36) in patients with RAS mutant tumours; and 12.6 versus 6.8 months (HR=1.67) in patients with BRAF mutant tumours. In patients with dNLR less than 2.2, the median OS was 19.2 months in arm A compared to 18.0 months in arm B (HR=1.11). Among patients with dNLR greater than or equal to 2.2, the median OS was 13.0 months in arm A compared with 13.1 months in arm B (HR=0.96). dNLR is strongly prognostic for survival in all mutation groups. dNLR does not predict for benefit from the addition of cetuximab.

Derived neutrophil lymphocyte ratio is predictive of survival from intermittent therapy in advanced colorectal cancer: a post hoc analysis of the MRC COIN study.

BACKGROUND: The phase III COntinuous or INtermittent (COIN) trial failed to show non-inferiority of intermittent compared with continuous chemotherapy for advanced colorectal cancer in overall survival (OS). The present analysis evaluated whether the derived neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (dNLR) could predict the effect of intermittent vs continuous chemotherapy on OS in patients with advanced colorectal cancer. METHODS: A post hoc exploratory analysis of COIN arms A and C was performed. Landmark analysis was conducted on all patients with available WBC and neutrophils data. The dNLR was calculated using a formula which has previously demonstrated predictive power in cancer patients: dNLR = ANC/(WBC-ANC). A high dNLR was defined using a cut-off value of ⩾ 2.22. Derived neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio was then correlated with clinical outcomes. Survival curves were generated based on dNLR using the Kaplan-Meier method. Comparison between groups was performed using Cox regression. RESULTS: A total of 1630 patients were assigned to the continuous (N = 815) or intermittent (N = 815) arms. There was a strong association between dNLR level and OS. The median survival times in the ITT population were 18.6 months and 12.5 months for patients with low and high dNLR, respectively (HR = 1.70; 95% CI = 1.52-1.90; P < 0.001). The estimate of the hazard ratio did not alter substantially (HR = 1.54) after adjusting for treatment, tumour status, number of metastatic sites, alkaline phosphate and platelet count. CONCLUSIONS: Derived neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio is strongly prognostic for survival in the COIN intermittent vs continuous treatment arms. Derived neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio does not predict for detrimental survival in patients treated with intermittent therapy.

Patterns of progression, treatment of progressive disease and post-progression survival in the New EPOC study.

BACKGROUND: The addition of cetuximab (CTX) to perioperative chemotherapy (CT) for operable colorectal liver metastases resulted in a shorter progression-free survival. Details of disease progression are described to further inform the primary study outcome. METHODS: A total of 257 KRAS wild-type patients were randomised to CT alone or CT with CTX. Data regarding sites and treatment of progressive disease were obtained for the 109 (CT n=48, CT and CTX n=61) patients with progressive disease at the cut-off date for analysis of November 2012. RESULTS: The liver was the most frequent site of progression (CT 67% (32/48); CT and CTX 66% (40/61)). A higher proportion of patients in the CT and group had multiple sites of progressive disease (CT 8%, 4/48; CT and CTX 23%, 14/61 P=0.04). Further treatment for progressive disease is known for 84 patients of whom 69 received further CT, most frequently irinotecan based. Twenty-two patients, 11 in each arm, received CTX as a further line agent. CONCLUSIONS: Both the distribution of progressive disease and further treatment are as expected for such a cohort. The pattern of disease progression seen is consistent with failure of systemic micrometastatic disease control rather than failure of local disease control following liver surgery.

Intermittent chemotherapy plus either intermittent or continuous cetuximab for first-line treatment of patients with KRAS wild-type advanced colorectal cancer (COIN-B): a randomised phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: Advanced colorectal cancer is treated with a combination of cytotoxic drugs and targeted treatments. However, how best to minimise the time spent taking cytotoxic drugs and whether molecular selection can refine this further is unknown. The primary aim of this study was to establish how cetuximab might be safely and effectively added to intermittent chemotherapy. METHODS: COIN-B was an open-label, multicentre, randomised, exploratory phase 2 trial done at 30 hospitals in the UK and one in Cyprus. We enrolled patients with advanced colorectal cancer who had received no previous chemotherapy for metastases. Randomisation was done centrally (by telephone) by the Medical Research Council Clinical Trials Unit using minimisation with a random element. Treatment allocation was not masked. Patients were assigned (1:1) to intermittent chemotherapy plus intermittent cetuximab or to intermittent chemotherapy plus continuous cetuximab. Chemotherapy was FOLFOX (folinic acid and oxaliplatin followed by bolus and infused fluorouracil). Patients in both groups received FOLFOX and weekly cetuximab for 12 weeks, then either had a planned interruption (those taking intermittent cetuximab) or planned maintenance by continuing on weekly cetuximab (continuous cetuximab). On RECIST progression, FOLFOX plus cetuximab or FOLFOX was recommenced for 12 weeks followed by further interruption or maintenance cetuximab, respectively. The primary outcome was failure-free survival at 10 months. The primary analysis population consisted of patients who completed 12 weeks of treatment without progression, death, or leaving the trial. We tested BRAF and NRAS status retrospectively. The trial was registered, ISRCTN38375681. FINDINGS: We registered 401 patients, 226 of whom were enrolled. Results for 169 with KRAS wild-type are reported here, 78 (46%) assigned to intermittent cetuximab and 91 (54%) to continuous cetuximab. 64 patients assigned to intermittent cetuximab and 66 of those assigned to continuous cetuximab were included in the primary analysis. 10-month failure-free survival was 50% (lower bound of 95% CI 39) in the intermittent group versus 52% (lower bound of 95% CI 41) in the continuous group; median failure-free survival was 12.2 months (95% CI 8.8-15.6) and 14.3 months (10.7-20.4), respectively. The most common grade 3-4 adverse events were skin rash (21 [27%] of 77 patients vs 20 [22%] of 92 patients), neutropenia (22 [29%] vs 30 [33%]), diarrhoea (14 [18%] vs 23 [25%]), and lethargy (20 [26%] vs 19 [21%]). INTERPRETATION: Cetuximab was safely incorporated in two first-line intermittent chemotherapy strategies. Maintenance of biological monotherapy, with less cytotoxic chemotherapy within the first 6 months, in molecularly selected patients is promising and should be validated in phase 3 trials.

Systemic chemotherapy with or without cetuximab in patients with resectable colorectal liver metastasis: the New EPOC randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Surgery for colorectal liver metastases results in an overall survival of about 40% at 5 years. Progression-free survival is increased with the addition of oxaliplatin and fluorouracil chemotherapy. The addition of cetuximab to these chemotherapy regimens results in an overall survival advantage in patients with advanced disease who have the KRAS exon 2 wild-type tumour genotype. We aimed to assess the benefit of addition of cetuximab to standard chemotherapy in patients with resectable colorectal liver metastasis. METHODS: Patients with KRAS exon 2 wild-type resectable or suboptimally resectable colorectal liver metastases were randomised in a 1:1 ratio to receive chemotherapy with or without cetuximab before and after liver resection. Randomisation was done using minimisation with factors of surgical centre, poor prognostic tumour (one or more of: ≥ 4 metastases, N2 disease, or poor differentiation of primary tumour), and previous adjuvant treatment with oxaliplatin. Chemotherapy consisted of oxaliplatin 85 mg/m(2) intravenously over 2 h and fluorouracil bolus 400 mg/m(2) intravenously over 5 min, followed by a 46 h infusion of fluorouracil 2400 mg/m(2) repeated every 2 weeks (regimen one) or oxaliplatin 130 mg/m(2) intravenously over 2 h and oral capecitabine 1000 mg/m(2) twice daily on days 1-14 repeated every 3 weeks (regimen two). Patients who had received adjuvant oxaliplatin could receive irinotecan 180 mg/m(2) intravenously over 30 min with fluorouracil instead of oxaliplatin (regimen three). Cetuximab was given as an intravenous dose of 500 mg/m(2) every 2 weeks with regimen one and three or a loading dose of 400 mg/m(2) followed by a weekly infusion of 250 mg/m(2) with regimen two. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival. This is an interim analysis, up to Nov 1, 2012, when the trial was closed, having met protocol-defined futility criteria. This trial is registered, ISRCTN22944367. FINDINGS: 128 KRAS exon 2 wild-type patients were randomised to chemotherapy alone and 129 to chemotherapy with cetuximab between Feb 26, 2007, and Nov 1, 2012. 117 patients in the chemotherapy alone group and 119 in the chemotherapy plus cetuximab group were included in the primary analysis. The median follow-up was 21.1 months (95% CI 12.6-33.8) in the chemotherapy alone group and 19.8 months (12.2-28.7) in the chemotherapy plus cetuximab group. With an overall median follow-up of 20.7 months (95% CI 17.9-25.6) and 123 (58%) of 212 required events observed, progression-free survival was significantly shorter in the chemotherapy plus cetuximab group than in the chemotherapy alone group (14.1 months [95% CI 11.8-15.9] vs 20.5 months [95% CI 16.8-26.7], hazard ratio 1.48, 95% CI 1.04-2.12, p=0.030). The most common grade 3 or 4 adverse events were low neutrophil count (15 [11%] preoperatively in the chemotherapy alone group vs six [4%] in the chemotherapy plus cetuximab group; four [4%] vs eight [8%] postoperatively), embolic events (six [4%] vs eight [6%] preoperatively; two [2%] vs three [3%] postoperatively), peripheral neuropathy (six [4%] vs one [1%] preoperatively; two [2%] vs four [4%] postoperatively), nausea or vomiting (four [3%] vs six [4%] preoperatively; four [4%] vs two [2%] postoperatively), and skin rash (two [1%] vs 21 [15%] preoperatively; 0 vs eight [8%] postoperatively). There were three deaths in the chemotherapy plus cetuximab group (one interstitial lung disease and pulmonary embolism, one bronchopneumonia, and one pulmonary embolism) and one in the chemotherapy alone group (heart failure) that might have been treatment related. INTERPRETATION: Addition of cetuximab to chemotherapy and surgery for operable colorectal liver metastases in KRAS exon 2 wild-type patients results in shorter progression-free survival. Translational investigations to explore the molecular basis for this unexpected interaction are needed but at present the use of cetuximab in this setting cannot be recommended.

Gemcitabine-based or capecitabine-based chemoradiotherapy for locally advanced pancreatic cancer (SCALOP): a multicentre, randomised, phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: In the UK, chemotherapy is the standard treatment for inoperable, locally advanced, non-metastatic pancreatic cancer. Chemoradiotherapy is also an acceptable treatment option, for which gemcitabine, fluorouracil, or capecitabine can be used as concurrent chemotherapy agents. We aimed to assess the activity, safety, and feasibility of both gemcitabine-based and capecitabine-based chemoradiotherapy after induction chemotherapy for patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer. METHODS: In this open-label, randomised, two-arm, phase 2 trial, patients aged 18 years or older with histologically proven, locally advanced pancreatic cancer (with a tumour diameter of 7 cm or less) were recruited from 28 UK centres between Dec 24, 2009 and Oct 25, 2011. After 12 weeks of induction gemcitabine and capecitabine chemotherapy (three cycles of gemcitabine [1000 mg/m(2) on days 1, 8, 15 of a 28-day cycle] and capecitabine [830 mg/m(2) twice daily on days 1-21 of a 28-day cycle]), patients with stable or responding disease, tumour diameter of 6 cm or less, and WHO performance status 0-1 were randomly assigned to receive a further cycle of gemcitabine and capecitabine chemotherapy followed by either gemcitabine (300 mg/m(2) once per week) or capecitabine (830 mg/m(2) twice daily, Monday to Friday only), both in combination with radiation (50·4 Gy in 28 fractions). Randomisation (1:1) was done via a central computerised system and used stratified minimisation. The primary endpoint was 9-month progression-free survival, analysed by intention to treat including only those patients with valid CT assessments. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number 96169987. FINDINGS: 114 patients were registered and 74 were randomly allocated (38 to the gemcitabine group and 36 to the capecitabine group). After 9 months, 22 of 35 assessable patients (62·9%, 80% CI 50·6-73·9) in the capecitabine group and 18 of 35 assessable patients (51·4%, 39·4-63·4) in the gemcitabine group had not progressed. Median overall survival was 15·2 months (95% CI 13·9-19·2) in the capecitabine group and 13·4 months (95% CI 11·0-15·7) in the gemcitabine group (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·39, 95% CI 0·18-0·81; p=0·012). 12-month overall survival was 79·2% (95% CI 61·1-89·5) in the capecitabine group and 64·2 (95% CI 46·4-77·5) in the gemcitabine group. Median progression-free survival was 12·0 months (95% CI 10·2-14·6) in the capecitabine group and 10·4 months (95% CI 8·9-12·5) in the gemcitabine group (adjusted HR 0·60, 95% CI 0·32-1·12; p=0·11). Eight patients in the capecitabine group had an objective response at 26 weeks, as did seven in the gemcitabine group. More patients in the gemcitabine group than in the capecitabine group had grade 3-4 haematological toxic effects (seven [18%] vs none, p=0·008) and non-haematological toxic effects (ten [26%] vs four [12%], p=0·12) during chemoradiation treatment; the most frequent events were leucopenia, neutropenia, and fatigue. Two patients in the capecitabine group progressed during the fourth cycle of induction chemotherapy. Of the 34 patients in the capecitabine group who received chemoradiotherapy, 25 (74%) received the full protocol dose of radiotherapy, compared with 26 (68%) of 38 patients in the gemcitabine group. Quality-of-life scores were not significantly different between the treatment groups. INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that a capecitabine-based regimen might be preferable to a gemcitabine-based regimen in the context of consolidation chemoradiotherapy after a course of induction chemotherapy for locally advanced pancreatic cancer. However, these findings should be interpreted with caution because the difference in the primary endpoint was non-significant and the number of patients in the trial was small. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK.

Chemoradiotherapy with or without cetuximab in patients with oesophageal cancer (SCOPE1): a multicentre, phase 2/3 randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Definitive chemoradiotherapy (CRT) is an alternative to surgery for the curative treatment of oesophageal carcinoma. The SCOPE1 trial aimed to investigate the addition of cetuximab to cisplatin and fluoropyrimidine-based definitive CRT in patients with localised oesophageal squamous-cell cancer and adenocarcinomas to assess activity, safety, and feasibility of use. METHODS: In this multicentre, randomised, open-label, phase 2/3 trial, we recruited patients aged 18 years and older from UK radiotherapy centres who had non-metastatic, histologically confirmed carcinoma of the oesophagus (adenocarcinoma, squamous-cell, or undifferentiated; WHO status 0-1; stage I-III disease) and been selected to receive definitive CRT. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) via a central computerised system using stratified minimisation (with an 80:20 random element) to receive CRT alone or CRT with cetuximab (400 mg/m(2) on day 1 followed by 250 mg/m(2) weekly), stratified by recruiting hospital, primary reason for not having surgery, tumour histology, and tumour stage. CRT consisted of cisplatin 60 mg/m(2) (day 1) and capecitabine 625 mg/m(2) twice daily (days 1-21) for four cycles; cycles three and four were given concurrently with 50 Gy in 25 fractions of radiotherapy. The primary endpoint was the proportion of patients who were treatment failure free at week 24 for the phase 2 trial and overall survival for the phase 3 trial, both measured from randomisation. We analysed data by intention to treat. This trial is an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number 47718479. FINDINGS: 258 patients (129 assigned to each treatment group) from 36 UK centres were recruited between Feb 7, 2008, and Feb 22, 2012. Recruitment was stopped without continuation to phase 3 because the trial met criteria for futility, but we continued to follow-up recruited patients until all had reached at least 24-week follow-up (median follow-up of patients who survived was 16.8 months [IQR 11.2-24.5]). Fewer patients were treatment failure free at 24 weeks in the CRT plus cetuximab group (79 of 119 patients [66·4%, 90% CI 58·6-73·6]) than in the CRT only group (93 of 121 patients [76.9%, 69.7-83.0]). The CRT plus cetuximab group also had shorter median overall survival (22.1 months [95% CI 15.1-24.5] vs 25.4 months [20.5-37.9]; adjusted HR 1.53 [95% CI 1.03-2.27]; p=0.035). Patients who received CRT plus cetuximab had more non-haematological grade 3 or 4 toxicities (102 [79%] of 129 patients vs 81 [63%] of 129 patients; p=0.004). The most common grade 3 or 4 toxicities were low white blood cell count (14 [11%] in the CRT plus cetuximab group vs 21 [16%] in the CRT only group), low absolute neutrophil count (15 [12%] vs 24 [19%]), fatigue (26 [20%] vs 25 [19%]), and dysphagia (35 [27%] vs 37 [29%]). INTERPRETATION: The addition of cetuximab to standard chemotherapy and radiotherapy cannot be recommended for patients with oesophageal cancer suitable for definitive CRT. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK.

New role of fat-free mass in cancer risk linked with genetic predisposition.

Cancer risk is associated with the widely debated measure body mass index (BMI). Fat mass and fat-free mass measurements from bioelectrical impedance may further clarify this association. The UK Biobank is a rare resource in which bioelectrical impedance and BMI data was collected on ~ 500,000 individuals. Using this dataset, a comprehensive analysis using regression, principal component and genome-wide genetic association, provided multiple levels of evidence that increasing whole body fat (WBFM) and fat-free mass (WBFFM) are both associated with increased post-menopausal breast cancer risk, and colorectal cancer risk in men. WBFM was inversely associated with prostate cancer. We also identified rs615029[T] and rs1485995[G] as associated in independent analyses with both PMBC (p = 1.56E-17 and 1.78E-11) and WBFFM (p = 2.88E-08 and 8.24E-12), highlighting splice variants of the intriguing long non-coding RNA CUPID1 (LINC01488) as a potential link between PMBC risk and fat-free mass.